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His 2-iron goes how far? Dustin Johnson’s distance chart is impressive

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Dustin Johnson topped Jon Rahm in the final to take home the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship, his second WGC event victory of the year. And even more impressively, the match play triumph is his third W in a row.

TaylorMade filed an interesting look at DJ’s distances and recent preference for an Ultimate Driving Iron 2-iron, rather than a 5-wood, off the tee on tight holes.

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Dustin Johnson’s TaylorMade UDI 2-iron.

And while TMag didn’t offer a full profile of lofts, here’s a look at his distance gapping on his average full-swing shots.

M1 Driver: 312 yards
M1 3-wood: 282 yards
M1 5-wood: 267 yards
2-iron UDI: 261 yards
4-iron: 236 yards
5-iron: 225 yards
6-iron: 212 yards
7-iron: 200 yards
8-iron: 186 yards
9-iron: 172 yards
PW: 158 yards

As TaylorMade points out, the distances represent averages, not full-bore, on-the-screws blasts. Johnson, of course, has no problem carrying his driver more than 320 yards when he wants to or smoking his 3-wood more than 300 yards off the tee.

And we’ve got his full bag specs as of the WGC-Dell Match Play.

Driver: TaylorMade 2017 M1 (10.5 degrees, set to 11)
Shaft: Fujikura Speeder Evolution 2.0 Tour Spec 661X
Specs: 45.75 inches, tipped 1 inch

Fairway Wood: TaylorMade 2017 M1 3HL (17 degrees, set to 16)
Shaft: Project X HZRDUS T1100 6.5 (95 grams)
Length: 42.25 inches

Irons: TaylorMade UDi (2), TaylorMade Tour Preferred MB ’14 (3-PW)
Shafts: Project X HZRDUS Black 6.5 (105 grams), True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100 (3-PW)

Wedges: TaylorMade Milled Grind (52-09 and 60-10)
Shaft: KBS Tour Wedge 120S Black Nickel

Putter: TaylorMade Spider Tour Black
Grip: SuperStroke Pistol GT 1.0
Specs: 35 inches, 2.5 degrees, 69 degrees, E0

Johnson told Taylormade he has an “If it ain’t broke…” attitude toward his bag set-up ahead of the Masters. While he may not tinker with his weaponry to take on Augusta National, rest assured that we’ll let you know if he does.

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RELATED: See DJ’s full WITB with pictures here.

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70 Comments

70 Comments

  1. c.spackler

    Jan 3, 2023 at 4:36 pm

    hmmm those numbers sure do look alot like the 130mph numbers found here:
    https://swingmangolf.com/average-golf-swing-speed-chart-2/

  2. Dave R

    Mar 27, 2017 at 10:48 pm

    Pactricknorm, glad your son played in the NHL but what’s your point ? I hope I didn’t miss it. Thanks.

  3. moses

    Mar 27, 2017 at 10:08 pm

    236 yard 4 iron. WOW!!!!!!

  4. Pete

    Mar 27, 2017 at 8:52 pm

    He can easily hit these distances. Just go watch some D1 golfers hit the ball today because they can absolutely pound it. They all work out with trainers and can really move the ball out there. They are much better athletes than in past years because of how specialized their training has become.

  5. Sean

    Mar 27, 2017 at 5:55 pm

    Remember, these numbers are provided by a company trying to sell golf clubs.

    • Michael

      Mar 28, 2017 at 3:59 pm

      So you doubt the veracity of them after watching them him the last few years?

  6. JE

    Mar 27, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    Replayed the final round yesterday. He hit an 8 iron on a 155 par 3. Downhill.

    It did wind up about 10 yards past the pin.

    • Steve

      Mar 27, 2017 at 7:14 pm

      And you really think that represents his “normal” 8 iron?

      • Jack

        Mar 27, 2017 at 10:15 pm

        Who knows how he hit that, perhaps flighted it somewhat to avoid the wind? I don’t doubt his distances, but yeah in tournaments many of his iron shots like 9 iron etc are pretty regular like 160 yard shot or a 140 yard PW. Clearly he varies his shot/swing to hit a specific distance, but those averages are probably all his full swing averages that TM asked him to hit for marketing purposes.

  7. Jmizzle

    Mar 27, 2017 at 5:03 pm

    TV needs to just say swing speed/loft at impact. Those are the 2 things amateurs can’t put together. I’m a low handicapper that struggles with
    distance. I spent time on a launch monitor to see what ‘moves’ would create more speed. None did. No matter what i did, I could not go from 103 mph to 110. I play in a lot of scratch leagues, no one is sniffing 120mph, except some young 6’3″ college kids. For the high speed players i know, none can de-loft the way these guys do. They flip, scoop or slap that ball.

  8. Patricknorm

    Mar 27, 2017 at 3:58 pm

    Here’s a little perspective for the doubters here. My son played in the NHL and watch a 3 handicap when he was 14 because he could hit the ball so far. Using a Taylor Made Burner driver with a steel shaft he won a junior long drive contest with a drive of 282. He could hit a 7 iron 200 yards and he never carried a 3 wood because his 3 iron was about 270. In hockey numbers his slap shot was measured at 97 mph and he was measured on a (golf) launch monitor with a 127 mph swing speed.
    He chose hockey because it was a virtual guarantee career wise. I’m not near as long and I can tell you seeing a drive go 350 yards is a thing of beauty.
    Ironically I’ve seen Dustin Johnson a few times live and he’s impressive. He’s a perfect NHL defenceman, 6’4″ maybe 210 and probably mean as a pit bull. Clearly Johnson made the right choice. He’ll play longer and make far more money in golf. He’d probably be good in many pro sports. Doesn’t hurt Wayne is his father in law either.

    • Barry

      Mar 27, 2017 at 7:14 pm

      No, but he is likely from Canada or the northern US where it is still winter and the people have basically gone insane by this point

      • LOL

        Mar 28, 2017 at 12:10 am

        To someone who got woken up in the middle of the night this comment was great.

      • bachvo

        Mar 29, 2017 at 4:40 am

        best comment by far

        • DeShamBeau

          Mar 29, 2017 at 5:22 pm

          This comment in bonkers and the replies are amazing. Well done, everyone.

    • Steve

      Mar 27, 2017 at 7:15 pm

      What has Dustin Johnson ever done or said that makes you think he’s “probably mean as a pit bull”? Everything I’ve ever seen/heard from him would argue the exact opposite.

    • Jack

      Mar 27, 2017 at 10:20 pm

      Clearly he wants us to know his son played in the NHL and could achieve clubhead speeds up to 127 mph. Proud dad this one.

      Similar comparison would be Sadlowski (though of course Jamie is more talented having won the long drive championship). He can also hit his 7 iron 225. But he can’t make it as a pro golfer on the tours. Distance isn’t everything, but of course it helps. DJ can be long and accurate which is what’s impressive.

    • Michael

      Mar 28, 2017 at 4:03 pm

      First, besides you, who do yo think cares what your kid does? Answer: No one except his mother.

      Second, find somewhere else to hang out. No one here cares for your how to win friends and not make enemies strategy.

    • Michael

      Mar 28, 2017 at 4:04 pm

      There is none other than letting us know his head is inflated beyond the size of the Goodyear blimp.

    • Daniel

      Jun 22, 2018 at 8:50 am

      14yrs old and hitting a 7 iron as far as dy and a 3 iron the same length as djs 5 wood.. dont let the truth get in the way of a good story I’m thinking…

  9. Mark

    Mar 27, 2017 at 3:08 pm

    85 degrees. No wind. Hard fairways. Downhill on a tour spec course. Come to my home course. Soaking wet, cold, damp air. Remember these guys do this for a living and don’t do a days work before playing. Usain Bolt runs very fast and people don’t expect to run as fast as he does so don’t expect to hit it as far as a Pro. And I will have a bet on DJ for the Masters!!

  10. Bob

    Mar 27, 2017 at 2:17 pm

    Lots of folks in denial saying these can’t be accurate but go watch him hit balls on the range and report back. I’m talking in person too. Only egotistical morons would watch him and think these couldn’t possibly be accurate.

  11. Christopher Feltham

    Mar 27, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    I played St Anne’s links, Dublin last monday in a gale….a proper course. They’re off to shelter at the least sign of adverse conditions in the states….Michelson’s shown he can handle British/Irish conditions….come and show us DJ…if your soft enough.

    • Steve

      Mar 27, 2017 at 1:29 pm

      You do realize that sending them “off to shelter” in adverse conditions has more to do with the idiot spectators than the players, right?

  12. Dave

    Mar 27, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    And I have to agree with bandrz, I’ve seen DJ up close and personal at a tournament, both on the range and on the fairway. This dude is tall, and his hands must be 7 ft. in the air when he’s winding one up. There is no one in this comment section that could clean his clubs, much less hit any of their clubs similar distances. DJ is an animal 🙂

    • bandrz

      Mar 27, 2017 at 1:38 pm

      It’s uncanny. And he isn’t missing many fairways right now either. Almost all of these guys bomb it, but DJ stands out and that is hard to do. Rory does too. Thomas Pieters? dude is huge!

    • Bob

      Mar 27, 2017 at 2:27 pm

      Saw him in Austin on Thursday and he was punishing balls into 20 mph winds on the range. Was also completely floored by his size in person. We all know he’s tall and lanky but he appears to be pure lean muscle now. Then you incorporate his flexibility too and he’s just completely different from anyone else. It’s a broken record at this point talking about how he’s such a freak athlete but it really can’t be said enough.

  13. Dave

    Mar 27, 2017 at 12:28 pm

    Well, downhill as Johnny Miller said, he smoked a drive 426 yds. Sunday against John, and got beat since Rahm sent his 438. I don’t care if it’s downhill or not, that’s some impressive distances, and straight down the middle for both of them. I’ll bet they didn’t have 30 yds. wide landing area, and they both hit it. Dang

  14. bandrz

    Mar 27, 2017 at 12:16 pm

    Having seen DJ up close on several occasions, these look about right. If you haven’t seen these guys play in person, I don’t know what to say. Yes, they are that much longer than you.

    • Robin

      Mar 27, 2017 at 8:01 pm

      Years ago, maybe 20, a friend dragged me to an event where John Daly was teamed with another player and they played against two other players . back then Daly was 50 to 75 yards past the other 3 every single hole… Daly hit 330 or better on at least 3 holes with the other 3 out about 270 max. What we see in Johnson is nothing new just better equipment (for sure the ball) better conditioned players…

    • Tom

      Mar 28, 2017 at 11:32 am

      there ya go first hand report…witnessed

  15. Tom

    Mar 27, 2017 at 11:22 am

    Damn! there’s a lot of denial on here

  16. chip

    Mar 27, 2017 at 10:16 am

    those numbers are inflated. he does not hit his 7 iron 200 yards, nor his pw 160.

    • DJ

      Mar 27, 2017 at 12:39 pm

      u do know that his club head at impact is de-lofted which is why he can hit those numbers with those clubs.

    • Michael

      Mar 28, 2017 at 4:07 pm

      You know this how? … Because you say so? Just as I thought.

  17. Jim

    Mar 27, 2017 at 9:56 am

    He’s way longer than these numbers if he wants… from 95-2000 playing mini-tours & section events I averaged 296 off Tee w/ Callaway GBB 9 degree and 45.5 AJ Tech shaft… Callaway BB 1iron 270-275 with AJ Tech also…didn’t carry 3wd for 7 years….

    My PowerBuilt TPI or Titleist DCI irons were close, but 46 PW was full swing 150…

    BALLS….Spalding Tour Edition or Precept EV Extra Spin.

    Bottom line, it’s mostly about speed

    • Jim

      Mar 27, 2017 at 6:22 pm

      Jack, Arnold, Julius could all hit 7irons 200+ They just would’ve had 2 ir trajectory and never stopped on a green….The equipment has changed so much that the swing (at impact) did too. 45 years ago the hackers were fighting the ‘flip’ just as they are now.

      the goal of a low hcp player was to ‘turn an 8 into a 7’ at impact….

      the club head designs, grooves and balls make it so a skilled player can turn an 8 into a 5&3/4 at impact and the gear will produce a ‘tour trajectory’ ball flight that will drop and sit on a green

      the flippers picked up a few yards as the lofts on their 8’s are about what a 7 iron used to be, and the ‘better ones’ can at least keep ‘an 8 an 8’ and not add too much loft at impacr, often getting into the low single hcps with regular play

  18. Johnny

    Mar 27, 2017 at 9:49 am

    Would love to see DJ on Trackman hitting Tour Balata 100’s and Professional 90’s like was done here.

    http://www.andrewricegolf.com/andrew-rice-golf/2011/08/evolution-of-a-golf-ball

  19. Dat

    Mar 27, 2017 at 9:25 am

    If these yardages are true, we are going to continue to see the trend of longer courses, and the longer hitter will always win. Time to change the BALL for tour pros only.

    • Jim

      Mar 27, 2017 at 9:46 am

      GAME BALL! Long past due…Just like every other sport. Won’t affect anyone’s endorsement deal for “their favorite ball / gear”…

      Only ball on practice tee / green, fill up your bag before 1st tee.

      2 year exclusive contract….same ball all year, every event.

      • Steve

        Mar 27, 2017 at 7:18 pm

        Maybe I’m confused, but it sounds like you want everybody to play the exact same ball on the golf course. IF that is indeed what you’re saying, how would that not affect anyone’s endorsement deals? Also, who decides which company makes the ball they play? There is WAY too much money in ball sales for this to ever happen.

        • Jim

          Mar 28, 2017 at 10:33 am

          Just like tennis…Player’s endorse – Wilson, but the tournament ball is Penn…

          golf is SO much more touchy feely it would be a constant source of aggravation AND WHINING if the ball changed every week. I’d be pissed too…
          SO there’s a big contest between the mfrs… trials with various balls for feel etc and – whoever – picks the one for the next season or 2…

          game ball….no problem

      • Gorden

        Mar 28, 2017 at 12:08 am

        And who ever made that game ball would sell millions of them to every foursome in front of me and behind me every Tuesday because they all think/act like their on tour…I keep leaving messages in the club house..”Come on people tour players do take more time to read and make their one putt, lets hurry up the read on that forth putt please”…

        • Jim

          Mar 28, 2017 at 11:01 am

          And that would affect what? They’re already playing some overpriced ball ’cause some tour player does – I’ll bet 70% would drop the ‘tour ball’ in three or four rounds if if cost them 15yds off the tee (make the ball ‘need to be hit reeeally square’ to ‘work best’) or even 5 yds with an 8 iron

    • Robin

      Mar 27, 2017 at 8:11 pm

      NEVER HAPPEN PGA Golf is a business and a business is there to make money…equipment companies are not going to pay the PGA or the players to hit a TOUR ONLY BALL. Do you ever wonder why the pros play 90% of their tournaments on courses even an amateur (not the same length of course) could score better then on most local public courses….and do not bother telling me I am wrong because I have played on 3 pro tournament courses a week after the big boys and 3 out 3 times I beat my handicap. (15). why, because the lies were perfect and on the greens the ball just rolls perfect.

      • Jim

        Mar 28, 2017 at 10:52 am

        No one has to pay them to play it. It’s the official league ball.. If they want to piss and moan and quit the tour because there’s a standard (no doubt excellent) ball they have to play at that level, let em. Not a single one will.

        ya don’t let the loonies run the asylum – even if their money’s paying the rent. What are they going to do? NOT play?….

        Either end this perennial whining about whether or not the ‘ball is legal’ or too hot and have a game ball, or STFU…

        They can’t keep lengthening the courses to a point where extremely talented but not monster long guys have no chance….Increase premium on accuracy (make the rough thicker/deeper from 275-320) throttle down the club a bit, have a game ball – OR like any other physical sport, deal with the fact that someone’s always gonna be stronger and longer, but the field stays same length…

    • Looper

      Mar 28, 2017 at 1:56 pm

      No way… What, make football fields longer, baseball pitchers mounds further back? Nonsense, only a few hit it like a tour pro…

  20. DB

    Mar 27, 2017 at 9:24 am

    I still don’t believe that his driver is 45.75 inches. It sure doesn’t look that long.

    • Teaj

      Mar 27, 2017 at 10:31 am

      I thought the same thing but it could be it looks short just in comparison to his arm length which from what I understand is large. Could be wrong but the only reason I can think of because it does look short.

  21. Jack Wullkotte

    Mar 27, 2017 at 8:44 am

    How can they say the golf ball is legal? Drives in the 350 yards to 400 yards are ludicrous. In the 1940’s, 50’s and 60’s, I was considered a “long hitter.” My drives averaged about 280. In those days, the longest average on tour was about 290. Pitching wedge distance was about 115. Sure, lofts were about 4 degrees weaker on irons, but that would only pick up about an additional 12 to 15 yards. Johnson’s pitching wedge average is 158 yards. It’s not the club, believe me.

    • Shallowface

      Mar 27, 2017 at 8:19 pm

      Finally someone here who knows what he’s talking about. Welcome, sir!

    • Shallowface

      Mar 27, 2017 at 8:22 pm

      If you haven’t already, please visit the “Classic Golf and Golfers” section of the forums. You would be most welcome there.

    • Jack

      Mar 27, 2017 at 10:30 pm

      Currently the longer average drive is 316, not 350-400. Helps to compare apples to apples. There’s been massive changes in ball and equipment as well as athlete fitness (especially golf where they refused to call golfers athletes in the past) over the years. People are also taller and stronger than in the past. Did you see any 6’3 golfers in the 60’s?

  22. Travis

    Mar 27, 2017 at 8:35 am

    I highly doubt these distances are accurate. To win the US Open he took a 6-iron from 190. That was a full swing under-pressure with adrenaline. By this chart above he should have take an 8-iron…

    I’m sure Dustin can hit these numbers if he swing full out, but I highly doubt DJ’s everyday smooth 7-iron is his go to 200y club…

    • Steve

      Mar 27, 2017 at 1:31 pm

      “To win the US Open he took a 6-iron from 190. That was a full swing under-pressure with adrenaline.”

      I’m willing to bet that wasn’t a “full swing… with adrenaline.” Just because it looks like he may be going after it with a full swing on TV doesn’t mean he actually is. I 100% guarantee you that he hits his normal 6 iron over 190 yards, and that’s without the extra adrenaline.

  23. Adam S.

    Mar 27, 2017 at 8:20 am

    The length of the 3-wood at 42.25″ is surprising to me given DJ’s height.

    • CCTxGolf

      Mar 27, 2017 at 9:09 am

      It’s really a 4 wood (3hl) but the length still seems short for how tall he is.

  24. Smitty

    Mar 27, 2017 at 12:16 am

    Might want to watch this video, he carries one of his drives 324 yards at the range:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3YpSSL2R57Y

  25. The dude

    Mar 26, 2017 at 8:52 pm

    No way they are carry yardages………

    • Jack

      Mar 26, 2017 at 10:36 pm

      Yeah I think I’ve seen his trackman numbers where he was hitting some driver and also some irons in the past and the carry distances weren’t that far. TM gave his total distances, and WRX just did a little word play indirectly making people think it’s carry by saying he would have no problem carrying it 320. Actually, I think he would. He would normally hit it carry 300, and 20 yards extra would probably be his max considering he already swings it 120 mph clubhead speed. And max is definitely not a no problem proposition.

      But 158 PW? We normal amateurs have a better chance of achieving pro distances on the shorter clubs because they are easier to hit, but it’s still pretty hard to hit it 158. He hits muscle back clubs too. Try hitting a 47 degree muscleback PW 158 lol. He averages that.

      • Halteclere

        Mar 26, 2017 at 11:59 pm

        I mean he did hit his two iron 300 yards carry in Mexico, granted it was altitude, but it was extremely impressive nonetheless.

        • Jack

          Mar 27, 2017 at 8:49 am

          LOL yeah those distances were crazy in Mexico. Fun for us to watch. Pretty difficult for them to figure out initially. No doubt, DJ is both long and pretty accurate. His total driving is up there. What’s more impressed has been his strokes gained from tee to green, almost 2.5 strokes on the field. Another half stroke with his putting validates his wins this season and number 1 status. He’s dominating.

          • James

            Mar 27, 2017 at 10:37 am

            That might be where these come from, to be fair. The elevation in Mexico would suit these ´averages´

      • Jim

        Mar 27, 2017 at 9:29 pm

        22yrs ago my PW was my 150yd club. I’m not quite as tall – nor lanky and long armed as DJ – and not as delofted at impact. No doubt he’s avg 158 carry – easy.

        flat straight hole on a course I was on staff at in ’96 had a creek running across fairway. 290 from tips & you were in, 312 you were over. As long as i wasn’t hitting into any real wind, ~IF~ I put a good ‘102%’ swing on it, I could clear it most of the time. There’s no doubt this cat is longer than I was, and I had a record 369 yd drive (although I do believe it got a good ‘assist’ from a sprinkler head) 😉

        On the ancient tech from 97, I was swinging 45.5 – 46″ drivers 126 – 130. I have no problem believing those numbers from him

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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