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What Happened to The Dan Plan?

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In November of 2008, Malcolm Gladwell released a book that accomplished something very few books ever do – it changed our vocabulary. In his book, Outliers, he described success in ways that most had never thought about before. Gladwell brought the idea of 10,000 hours being the threshold for expertise.

In principle, Gladwell claimed that it took around 10,000 hours to master a skill. The Beatles mastered their art by performing in small dive bars in the U.K. night after night after night, eventually getting to 10,000 hours. Tiger Woods reached his 10,000-hour mark sometime before he got to Stanford.

The most interesting thing about this concept, though, is what people have done with it since Gladwell made the concept mainstream. Dan McLaughlin was a commercial photographer who quit his day job to pursue a quest of 10,000 hours of to see if someone who’d never played a full 18-holes of golf could reach the PGA Tour.

The Journey

McLaughlin tracked everything with daily blog posts, sometimes only a sentence or two. It started in April of 2010 with a simple first post:

“Day one: April 5, 2010. Went out and putted for two hours. Don’t have the ‘real’ clubs yet, but it still counts as a start! So, down to 9,998 hours.”

At the beginning of his journey there was some media buzz to see what would happen or if he was serious, and within a year or so people began to realize he was. The question soon changed from, “Is he going to stick it out?” to “Can he make it on tour?”

By the end of 2012, McLaughlin lowered his handicap to 5.9, a number less than 6 percent of golfers will ever see. In a blog posted December 31, 2012, he said:

“Great day to end the year. Found my mojo after a few day slump and played pretty well despite absolutely frozen greens that played like hardpan. Didn’t score super well, but found my drive and iron shots once again. It snowed for a lot of the day. 6,310 remain. Random Stat: Shot an 80 at Heron Lakes and about 5-over for 9 at CECC.”

After only 3,690 hours, a man who’d never played a full round of golf before 2010 shot 80 in the snow. How long is 3,690 hours? In normal metrics, it’s 92 full work weeks.

In a post on April 20, 2014, McLaughlin describes breaking a barrier that only approximately 1 percent of golfers will ever break.

“April 20: Easter Sunday, hid some eggs and did an Easter egg hunt in the morning and then made it for a round at 1 p.m. at Heron Lakes.  I didn’t warm up and just went for it and played what started as a pretty decent round then got better as the day went along. I managed to get in a decent position with my tee shots then either hit greens or be close to them and scrambled well. All in all shot the best round to date and was very happy about it. 4,968 remain. Random Stat: shot a 70 to finally break par!”

Just over half-way through the 10,000-hour journey, he’d broken par, but he was also four years into this journey and still had over 4,900 hours left.

The Beginning of the End

So, where is McLaughlin now? In another post from his blog on April 13, 2015, we can see the beginning of the end:

“April 13: I kind of hurt my back a little yesterday somehow, but had my Monday league play so after working in the yard through the morning (lightly) I went to Broadmoor and played a 9-hole match. It was absolutely pouring out and not much fun in the conditions, honestly. 4,013 remain. Random Stat: lost 2 down.”

Right there. “I kind of hurt my back a little yesterday somehow.” The rest of the post ignores the back issue, and he only mentions it again on April 15th, when he opens his post with, “The back is still a little weird, and I’m in the middle of moving still so had limited practice time today.” It’s unclear what happened to his back, but he goes into a little more detail on the Golf.com podcast from November 6, 2015.

If you listen to this episode, you’ll find that McLaughlin appreciated his break from the journey. It was “sort of a nice break,” he said.

In one of McLaughlin’s last posts he wrote:

“April 25-26: Played in the two-man two-day best ball tourney at Rose City with a friend. I thought the back would be better, but it took everything I had to try and hit a tee shot, and anything longer than a 7-iron from the fairway was instant pain…Need to see a professional tomorrow. 3,997 remain. Random Stat: I’ve never felt pinches like this.”

McLaughlin was stymied at just over 6,000 hours in five years. His initial goal was to complete the 10,000 hours by 2016, but he had higher expectations as well.

From the podcast interview:

“I thought maybe I’d get to scratch in about a year or something, so potentially I’m a little behind where I was hoping to be, but you know, you are where you are, and I have 4,000 hours left.”

I spoke with McLaughlin on the phone the other day and asked him what he learned from the journey.

“Golf changed who I am in a lot of ways, he said. “There is a direct correlation between how much time you put in and the results you see in your golf game. But it’s not just the hours; you have to have focused hours. You have to work on something specific with a goal each time you show up. The same is true in business or any other venture.”

At his playing peak, McLaughlin got his handicap down to a 2.6 index, which is fantastic golf by almost anyone’s standards. He first reached this peak in June of 2014, only four years after he’d begun. When I asked him what he thought about his game when he was at the peak handicap of his journey, he said, “I don’t think I reached my peak. When I hurt my back, I was playing well, but I was hitting the driver really bad. I never felt like I was able to put it all together. Other parts of my game that were good were sort of keeping me together.”

In June of 2014, McLaughlin had put in 5,145 hours of practice. He didn’t make it to the tour, but his journey shows that dedicated practice can get golfers closer to where they want to go.

The Future

There’s much to be learned from McLaughlin’s experience, and not just in a golf sense. It’s long been known within the self-development space that people enjoy life more when they have a personal quest. For some people that means running a marathon, 10 marathons or 50 marathons in all 50 states. For others, it’s about building a start-up and taking it to an IPO, bench pressing 300 pounds or winning their club championship.

McLaughlin never really set the goal of becoming a PGA Tour player, but he did want to see if the 10,000-hour rule could hold true. Could someone with no experience in a sport or another other venture put in the 10,000 of deliberate work and achieve what most would consider mastery status? But more so, he wanted something almost transcendental.

“When I started this journey, I wanted to inspire people to be the best person they could be,” McLaughlin said. “It was a journey about human potential, about my own potential.”

As we spoke on the phone, he told me that as the attention grew for his plan — which it did fairly quickly — he started to lose sight of his goal of inspiring people. It started to become more about the golf and shooting the score. He’d lost sight of his quest.

The interviewer on the Golf.com podcast asked McLaughlin if he had any regrets (at the time of the interview, he had been on a layoff for his back for over six months).

Interviewer: “There are no regrets, right? I mean, you’re happy you undertook this task?”

“I mean, it’s just, in so many ways it’s been transformative. It’s taught me a lot about life; it’s opened a lot of doors, you know I’ve met a lot of people through this journey. I’ve learned a ton, I think and all in all, it’s made me a better person.”

The golf didn’t teach him a lot of about life. It wasn’t the result of the shots or the result of the putts he hit; it was the quest. It was the day-in, day-out pursuit of something that helped him gain perspective and discipline, two things people can take with them the rest of their lives.

Behind all great achievements is a human on a quest. It’s why the greatest stories from our childhood have a character fighting their way through some sort of turmoil. It’s why, when people feel they have no purpose, they start reaching for something to give them purpose. Dan McLaughlin set out to prove or disprove a theory, but what he ended up doing is finding himself in the process.

Unfortunately, the last public update we have on his journey from his website is the last post from May 2, 2015:

“Just a bad week. Saw Chiropractor Seth and he said I was all twisted up in the hips and lower back and needed a couple of adjustments. First one was on Monday, followed by an easy Tuesday and then again in his office Wednesday. Late Wednesday night I came down with norovirus, which knocked me out completely for Thursday and Friday, so I scheduled the third adjustment with him this coming Monday. The back feels better, it’s just the lower right side now which is the final adjustment coming Monday. It’s been a long time off and not for a good reason, which is kind of a bummer, but better to get healthy than to risk deeper injury. After Monday I should be able to at least go out and chip and putt on Tuesday, I hope.”

That was over 18 months ago. When I spoke to McLaughlin on the phone, he was upbeat. He told me his new girlfriend had come across some media coverage of his journey (he met his girlfriend well after the back injury sidelined him) and he sat down and went through it all again and explained it to her.

“She told me she noticed a theme as we went through the old press stuff together, the theme was that it was about inspiring people,” he said. “I can definitely point to a time in my journey when I lost sight of that. But as I sit here today, I feel as though I achieved something worthwhile.”

The data on McLaughlin’s site shows that as well, but that’s what journeys are, right? They are a string of failures mixed with a few wins sprinkled in to keep us going, and if we stick it out long enough, we’ll find something important.

Unfortunately, McLaughlin may never make it to 10,000 hours.

“I went through months of physical therapy and I couldn’t even putt for six months because it hurt so bad,” he said. “I’ve just recently, in the last couple of months been able to play somewhat pain-free. I have started this new venture, and we’re having a lot of fun. I have tried to write the final post on the site so many times, but I can never seem to close it out. I would like to think that down the road when I’ve got the capital to fully commit again; I can make golf a full-time focus and maybe make a run for the senior tour. Who knows?”

mclaughlin-and-onstad-golf

McLaughlin (left) and his neighbor Chris Onstad, who together founded a Portland Soda Works, a craft soda company in 2012.

Even if McLaughlin never logs another blog post, it’s safe to say that he inspired me as a writer. I hope that if you’d never heard of his story until now that you look him up, read his blog and watch the press videos. His journey may inspire you to pick up something new or to rededicate to something of old.

McLaughlin learned a lot about being a better person and what it means to pursue something with everything you’ve got. And that’s a skill that may only require 6,003 hours to master, and it may take him further than golf ever would have. We’ll have to wait and see.

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Adam Crawford is a writer of many topics but golf has always been at the forefront. An avid player and student of the game, Adam seeks to understand both the analytical side of the game as well as the human aspect - which he finds the most important. You can find his books at his website, chandlercrawford.com, or on Amazon.

33 Comments

33 Comments

  1. Rod Grinberg

    Mar 31, 2022 at 10:41 am

    This guy was always a charlatan. I play golf at some of the same courses in Portland, heard talk about him, he was caught cheating in local tournaments, and nobody liked playing with him because he was very slow. A ten handicapper at best from what I have heard.

  2. Pingback: Practical Steps to Improve Your Craft

  3. Tim Roggero

    Dec 28, 2018 at 10:00 am

    I am a pga golf professional and have seen and worked with the only guy to ever go from the bagroom to the pga tour at the age of 25 and shooting in the mid 70s.You must put timing into the 10000 hrs so there is skill development.The worst people you can listen to our those teaching feelings and perceptions or listening to a good player.Ask any physics professor and they will tell you every thing that is currently taught about where speed comes from is wrong.How it is taught guarantees it will never work this is why nobody ever improves but for hitting highs and lows along the way.There is not one teacher on the pga circuit who has or is currently helping anyone.Study neuroscience you will see its impossible.It all comes down to a time learned release of the forearms in every swing.Please feel free to question [email protected]

  4. Michael Robles

    Aug 6, 2017 at 3:04 am

    I read Outliers in October 2012 and finished the book by December 2012. I immediately started the journey to 10,000 hours. I practiced 3 hours a day for 8 months and then ramped it up to 5 hours a day in August 2013. I practice everyday. I have not tracked my hours practiced but I mentioned that I practice everyday. So I’m probably 7,500 hours into the experiment. When I started I was shooting low 100’s and I am a 2 handicap now. It definitely works. I have made 2 major swing changes and that has slowed my progress. I didn’t receive pro instruction for my first 2 years. That was a huge mistake. If you’re interested in seeing my journey search HOOA on youtube. I vlog my journey and record all of my competitive rounds.

  5. Jocko

    Jul 1, 2017 at 10:19 am

    The 10,000 hour rule is separate from the talent component. Of course anybody will get better at something if they do it a lot. But imagine that we’re talking about the 100 yard dash. No amount of time is going to make a non talented person competitive with a talented one. It’s the same with golf, but less so. Putting and chipping and even the short iron game can be much easier to “master” than components of the game that require high club head speed, fast twitch muscle firing, etc.

  6. Ramrod

    Apr 5, 2017 at 8:42 pm

    I didn’t know Sean Foley was coaching him.

  7. Steve Wozeniak

    Mar 17, 2017 at 1:38 pm

    It’s not just the hours….it’s WHAT your working on and if he hurt his back it was the wrong stuff…talent along with athletic ability has a little to do with success at the highest levels as well.

    Steve Wozeniak PGA

  8. AnonGolfer

    Mar 17, 2017 at 11:55 am

    What’s missing from this is that the 10,000 hours rule has been known by many psychologists as a major misinterpretation of Erricson’s ideas…Erricsons ideas are more based on deliberate practice which he developed by playing chess as a kid

    • AnonGolfer

      Mar 17, 2017 at 12:00 pm

      Gladwell is also in record stating the 10,000 hour rule does not apply to sports

  9. Don M

    Mar 17, 2017 at 10:20 am

    I wonder if he has serious regret. I sure would. It’s one thing to pursue a dream. But to end up with a back injury is not a good tradeoff for becoming a good golfer. Not to mention the grind of it all.

    • Adam Crawford

      Mar 17, 2017 at 11:10 am

      When I spoke to him on the phone, he said he didn’t have regrets. He was obviously bummed because he was injured to the point that he couldn’t even putt. However, he felt like he’d gained a lot more out of the experience than getting better at golf, which I think is why a lot of us play the game any way.

  10. Anthony

    Mar 17, 2017 at 9:39 am

    A couple of points here for me:

    1. The book outliers is dumb. The book should have phased the 10000 hours thing like this: “10,000 hours being the threshold for expertise FOR YOUR POTIENTAL”. I do believe that if you put in 10000 hours at something, you will be the best that YOU will ever be at it, might even be able to call yourself an expert. But what about all those others that put in 10000 too at the same skill? What differentiates you with them? Talent. I just feel like the book gives all these false hopes by not setting the standard that TALENT is still needed. Golf as an example, if there are 2000 golfers in the world with 10000 hours of dedicated practice, what separates the 200 on the PGA from the other 1800…you guessed it, TALENT.

    2. you mean the golf swing breaks down the body? It’s not just working out in the gym and heavy lifting that will hurt a golfer’s back? Someone please please tell this to that idoit Chamblee. I bet Tiger has logged between 20000 and 30000 hours of golf practice throughout his life. That will really break down your body quick.

    • Victor Su

      Feb 27, 2018 at 7:38 pm

      Talent does matter, but I disagree with the part you said about PGA tour. You do need talent to be the best on tour, but you do NOT have to have talent to make it on the tour. Dan’s goal was to make through Q-school to just have a PGA membership card, which is something hard work alone can definitely can get you to even though you are not talented. So if your goal is just to be on the tour making enough money to stay for next year and so on, unless you are super extremely stupid, you can definitely make it by putting enough hard work. But that’s gonna be A LOT OF work though.

  11. Jim

    Mar 17, 2017 at 9:26 am

    Even the most enthusiastic backers can’t buy someone ‘the gift’ of supreme talent. 40 years ago maybe…enough to grab a couple sponsors (75K from FJ for shoes & hat) 50K from ‘Tommy Armour or Lynx’ for bag n clubs….small time peanuts now, but enough to keep up with travel, phone, car payments, food and entry fees…..NOW GO WIN – OR finish emough top 20’s to make some extra money.

    sorry man, life sux then you die.

    not everyone gets through BUDS – not the big time Annapolis football hero – it’s the GRUNTS that pass…maybe never won the 10 mile run, never finished an evolution first… just NEVER QUIT, TAKE THE PAIN and finish top 20…

    no pressure, expenses paid, you know you’re playing next week ’cause your entry fees paid and your not sleeping in your car – cause you can’t afford a motel….

    bottom line – just not good enough. Period. Now go away

    • Jim

      Mar 17, 2017 at 10:36 am

      I WILL GIVE HIM THIS…..sheeit…wish I thought of it – get a bunch of good ol boy sportsman type ‘betting men’ to finance your self indulgent / blogger ‘arteest’ career change and basically pay for you to become a great recreational golfer….

      …I wouldn’t have had to sell off my most valuabke possessions and (most of) my gun collection to finance me quitting my job & playing golf and practicing all day when I turned professional…

      kinda brilliant 😉

  12. stevep1000

    Mar 16, 2017 at 10:49 pm

    The guy had a compelling story, and sought followers and financial support from his followers. It’s remarkably weak that he abandoned the plan and his followers without so much as a comment on his website.

    • toad

      Mar 16, 2017 at 10:57 pm

      Agreed. Gotta man up, as painful as it may be.

  13. toad

    Mar 16, 2017 at 10:40 pm

    He inspired my to become an expert daytrader. I fizzled out like Danny boy did. Moral of the story: Getting 10k in is tough.

  14. S Hitter

    Mar 16, 2017 at 8:58 pm

    !0,000 hours AND a bottomless pit of cash is what you need in golf. Unless, if he was smart enough, he was gambling while he was playing some of those rounds making cash on the side to pay for some of the rounds. The theory doesn’t quite correlate well with The Beatles, lets say, or musicians, because musicians can sit at home with their guitar or piano and tinker for 10,000 hours without spending any money getting good at it, unlike in golf. So, yeah, it’s shank for the this guy, because he should have also illustrated how much money it cost him to get to where he did. Including the costs of the doctors he had to see to get his back fixed, which is where a lot of guys also lose their enthusiasm, because it costs so much money without making any of it back, unless you’re competing on the Pro level and winning some of it back. He could have learned a lot about himself without doing that through golf

  15. LandofBoz

    Mar 16, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    Gladwell actually said that experts have put in at least 10,000 hours, not that it took 10,000 hours to be an expert.

  16. TheGrftKngs

    Mar 16, 2017 at 3:24 pm

    Reminds me of the book “Paper Tiger” which is based on the same premise: a real-life journalist who devoted himself to earning his Tour card within a year. Just finished it and loved every minute.

    • Scott

      Mar 17, 2017 at 9:13 am

      Paper Tiger was a fun read. I will say that the guy in this article seemed more delusional than the guy who wrote Paper Tiger.

  17. TR1PTIK

    Mar 16, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    I followed the Dan Plan closely as well and felt that his enthusiasm for the game started to dwindle towards the end. There always seemed to be something that would sideline him or hold him up a little bit. If nothing else, his journey certainly inspired me to put more concentration and effort (and hours) into the things that are important to me. I think the ability to inspire others is a much more meaningful (though maybe not as rewarding [$]) accomplishment than getting on tour. Best of luck!

  18. Sega69

    Mar 16, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    Makes you appreciate tour pros even more. Feel bad for him re injury and it’s a great story, but even guys with talent, money, hard work and luck don’t make. I’ve met lots (as I’m sure many of us have) of mini tour guys and college players that can shoot 65 and win club c’s but even they will tell you that the pros are in a different stratosphere. Unrewarded talent is almost a proverb.

  19. TechnologyGolfer.com

    Mar 16, 2017 at 2:00 pm

    I too used to follow the Dan Plan and read probably 50 posts or more. I was pulling for Dan even though I knew it was a longshot. I’m sure he’ll get something positive from the experience though, and would do it again if he could.

  20. farmer

    Mar 16, 2017 at 1:00 pm

    He quit his job, started practicing, lived off savings and donations, has gotten to be a good golfer, but nowhere near elite. Had he spent 10000 hours working at photography, (his real job) he might be mentioned with Ansel Adams.

  21. Nick

    Mar 16, 2017 at 1:00 pm

    Check out Anders Ericsson who is the original person to talk about 10,000 hours. Deliberate practice with proper feedback will make those hours successful.

  22. AceW7Iron

    Mar 16, 2017 at 10:37 am

    Can totally relate to the part about specific focus on certain parts of the game being the key to lowering your scores. I have played alot of golf in the last 12 months and only temporarily dipped below a 10…as I look back on 95% of the occasions I played it was just show up to see who I was THAT day…not really focusing on parts of my game that would make me better tomorrow.

  23. MiloTheMarauder

    Mar 16, 2017 at 10:32 am

    Never heard of this dude or his book and it just goes to show you. People have to take care of their bodies better or get that magic juice that brings American football players back from ACL tears in less than a year.

  24. birdie

    Mar 16, 2017 at 9:35 am

    i think this shows how naive non golfers are on how quickly you can become a scratch player. plenty of people who see the occasional golf highlight on espn or watch some Masters coverage who’ve never really played and think the game doesn’t look all that hard.

  25. Jim

    Mar 16, 2017 at 9:30 am

    There’s a WRX forum article about this as well, that was started over a year ago. IT was a good idea and an interesting follow, but back injuries aren’t fun and can derail a golfing ambition.

  26. Adam

    Mar 16, 2017 at 9:17 am

    I read that 90% of PGA tour players have some sort of back issue. Typical back can’t last 10,000 hours I guess.

  27. KillerPenguin

    Mar 16, 2017 at 8:45 am

    I used to follow Dan closely and was really sad for him when he broke the news about the back. While I don’t think he was ever going to make it through Q School and the Web.com Tour and onto the PGA TOUR, his approach to the game and thought provoking posts were always enjoyable and often inspiring. Pour one out for the Dan Plan!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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