Tour News

Jordan Spieth’s Masters collapse was the genesis of an incredible win probability calculator

Published

7 years ago

Mar 6, 2017

Jordan Spieth’s unfortunate display at the 12th hole at Augusta National last year has led to at least one happy development: a top-notch win probability calculator.

Dan Rosenheck, data editor at The Economist, was inspired to develop Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator (EAGLE) after seeing Spieth’s collapse and asking the question: “Was this the worst collapse in major golf history?”

An interesting sidebar: It wasn’t. And while you ponder the worst collapse in recent major golf history, some more details on the EAGLE.

According to Golfweek’s David Dusek, the tool is built from a “dataset of more than 457,753 holes played by golfers in the Masters, U.S. Open, British Open and PGA Championship and almost one million rounds played in tournaments that award world ranking points.”

The EAGLE determines a player’s likely score on a hole based on a player’s OWGR-derived ability, a hole’s par and its length. The utility then simulates the golfer’s play on that hole and all remaining holes…10,000 times (as well as every other golfer’s remaining holes). The number of times a golfer wins in the simulation out of 10,000 attempts equates to his win probability.

You can learn more about The Economist’s EAGLE here.

Per EAGLE, after Jordan Spieth bogeyed the 10th and 11th holes at ANGC last year, he still had a 96 percent chance of winning the Masters. After the seven at the 12th hole his chance of winning fell to 23 percent.

As mentioned, The Economist found that Spieth’s collapse was not the worst in major championship history. Don’t worry, Jean van de Velde, it’s Adam Scott’s 2012 British Open blowup that’s the recipient of the inglorious honor. Four-up with four holes to play, Scott’s win probability was 98.6 percent.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Published

2 days ago

Apr 23, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

GolfWRX is live on site this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans for the PGA Tour’s one-and-only two-man team event.

As usual, general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums — including some pretty spicy custom putters and headcovers — await your viewing.

Be sure to check back for more photos from the Big Easy, as we’ll continue to update this page with additional galleries throughout the week.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying about our photos from the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in the forums.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 RBC Heritage

Published

1 week ago

Apr 16, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

GolfWRX is on site this week at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage. Plenty of golfers who competed in the Masters last week will be making the quick turnaround in the Lowcountry of South Carolina as the Heritage is again one of the Tour’s Signature Events.

We have general albums for you to check out, as well as plenty of WITBs — including Justin Thomas and Justin Rose.

We’ll continue to update as more photos flow in from SC.

Check out links to all our photos, below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying and join the discussion in the forums.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 Valero Texas Open

Published

3 weeks ago

Apr 1, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

GolfWRX is on site this week at the Valero Texas Open.

The event has been around since 1922, making it one of the oldest on the PGA Tour calendar. Over the years, it’s been held at a variety of courses across the Lone Star State, but it’s found its home at TPC San Antonio in recent years. Some of the biggest names in golf have taken home the title here, including Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan, Lee Trevino, and Ben Crenshaw.

GolfWRX has its usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs and special pull-out albums. As always, we’ll continue to update the links below as more photos come in from TPC San Antonio.