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Where does the golf ball go from here?

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According to an unusual statistic I came across recently there are 2,378 golf balls in the air during any given second around the world. Or to extend that out, it equates to 75 billion seconds of golf ball “airtime” per year. So it’s true golf balls play a significant role to golfers.

Right now there’s a lot of buzz in the ball market with big claims being made from a raft of new entrants. New models claim to be longer off the tee and offer more spin from short range while suppling buttery softness and feel. The industry standard premium ball, Titleist’s Pro V1, has consistently led the way in terms of performance since its launch in 2000. Bridgestone, Callaway, Srixon and TaylorMade are also competing at the top end of the market, which is defined at up to $4 per ball.

But imagine getting all that performance at a fraction of that price? Golfers are starting to sit up and take notice. Should Titleist and the other premium golf ball manufacturers be quaking in their corporate boots? And where does golf ball evolution go from here?

Who Makes the Best Golf Balls?

The ideal ball is one that maximizes distance through low spin with the driver, minimizes the effect of wind, stays straight on off-center hits and spins when it hits the green and offer the right feel.

If you ask Tiger Woods what the best golf balls are, he would say Bridgestone (he’s a brand endorser and uses the company’s B330S). Jordan Speith would say Titleist (he uses a ProV1x) and Phil Mickelson would say Callaway (he uses a Chrome Soft). If you ask a 20-handicap golfer the same question, he or she would probably say any number of brands and balls. And it’s not simply an endorsement issue; it comes down to the requirements of the player. In other words, what ball best suits a golfer’s needs in terms of performance… and of course, what’s the price?

It’s kind of like asking who makes the best beer. It’s a topic that sparks ongoing debate in bars all round the world, because everyone has their own favorite. It’s the same with golf balls. Brand loyalty and marketing play a big part in a golfer’s purchasing decision, and improvements in technology have made “the best ball” hard to define.

One thing is for sure, the market is certainly evolving. With the news that Rory McIlroy has chosen to return to Titleist’s Pro V1x golf ball and Bubba Watson will play Volvik’s S4 in pink, we are seeing success by both new and old brands.

Trending Technologies

There is so much technology behind golf balls these days. Polymers and associated materials are advancing at rapid rates, and computer aided design is enabling a better understanding of aerodynamics and performance. Manufacturing is getting more sophisticated and ball-testing technology can optimize the effects of dimples size and shape, spin, attack angles and aerodynamics.

The theory that every player is different is substantiated by Bridgestone, which has invested heavily in its golf-ball testing research and has more than two million swings in its database.

“Getting fitted for your ball is like getting fitted for your driver,” says Adam Rehberg, Bridgestone’s Head of Golf Ball Fitting. “Swing speed, launch angles and spin rates will point you toward a specific ball to optimize your goals. We are very enthusiastic at Bridgestone, as we don’t just make one ball. We are constantly pushing boundaries, and being part of a conglomerate, Bridgestone Golf balls has access to a ton of R&D from Bridgestone Tires. Polymers being used on tires today will undoubtedly be put into play by Bridgestone Golf.”

One Ball for One Swing?

According to Bridgestone’s swing database research, we are all different and swing a golf club differently.

“We gather real golfer data, not just generated from a robot,” Rehberg says. “We realize that people will not hit the ball perfectly. They will have different swing speeds, attack angles and face angles. Golfers should play a profile of ball that meets their needs that will optimize their performance, be that a slower swing speed or better feel round the green.”

But this tee-to-green strategy is different from Titleist’s recent advertising campaigns that say either its Pro V1 or Pro V1x will be the best-performing Titleist golf ball for golfers whatever their level of play.

Titleist takes a green-to-tee approach in its golf ball development and fitting, which involves an evaluation of all shots on the golf course. The greatest emphasis is placed on shots into and around the green, because “the golf ball that performs best on these shots is your key to lower scores,” the company says.

“Many golfers are led to believe they should be fit for a golf ball based solely on their driver swing speed,” the company says. “This is a flawed approach. The truth is golfers use a wide range of swing speeds to execute the vast array of shots required in every round. The golf ball must perform with every club, at every speed, on every shot.”

So in theory, a 20-handicap golfer can play exactly the same ball as their golfing idol does. But who is right?

New Players in the Market

In recent years, the golf ball industry has become packed with new entrants and existing companies that have created an ever-expanding array of models. New players like Vice, Snell, MG and Kirkland are offering urethane-covered golf balls at significantly lower prices. Test data and on-course feedback from golfers suggest that the technology gap is narrowing and more direct-to-market channels enable these companies to reduce overheads.

Judging by some social media-generated player feedback and by sales of these new entrants, golfers are buying into the price-performance deal. And then you have companies like Volvik with their new S3/S4 balls available now in different colors, not to mention Callaway’s success with its Chrome Soft Truvis golf balls, which have soccer ball-like graphics and sold so well Callaway struggled to meet demand.

New Ways to Buy Balls

Balls are also more likely to be bought online rather than through a pro shop these days.

“Trends are showing that consumers are more comfortable buying stuff on their mobile devices” said Elliot Mellow, Bridgestone’s Head of Golf Ball Fitting. “We have changed our channel model selling more direct online through our own website and partner websites and anticipate that to grow.”

It’s easy to see how technology can push down golf ball prices. There are already scenarios in the future that see a drone delivering a consignment of balls to the first tee before you play, presumably ordered on your smart phone that day.

The Golf Ball of the Future

So how will the golf ball of the future differ? It took 200 years for the featherie to make it to the guttie. How long will we have to wait for the next generation breakthrough?

Talking to Dean Snell is a fascinating insight into ball technology, history and engineering. He worked at Titleist to develop the Pro V1 and then at TaylorMade to design its Penta golf balls. Now he heads up his own golf ball company, Snell Golf, and is adamant that the ball regulations are so tight now that the distance feature has been maxed out.

“The area to focus in on now is from 150 yards and in,” he said. “And essentially that means spin rates.” And he doesn’t just focus on balls for pro golfers. At TaylorMade, he was behind its Noodle, Burner, RocketBallz and Project (a) golf balls, which were designed to perform for average golfers.

Snell says many golfers are being mis-sold on the concept that they need a lower-compression ball for slower swing speeds, believing that it will give them greater distance.

“Based on a 100 mph swing hitting the ball 250 yards, a low-compression ball will only add about one extra yard of distance compared to a higher compression ball,” he says. “But this tiny pick-up in distance is completely offset with lack of feel and ability to spin the ball on or around the green. In order to get enough backspin, you have to have a big enough contact area and you have to have the cover going into the grooves. A very hard ball, even if it had a soft cover, it wouldn’t be interacting with very many grooves, so you do actually need it to deform a certain amount.”

Bridgestone, on the other hand, is adamant it can help golfers hit the ball farther.

“We have invested a lot of R&D research into aerodynamics,” Elliot says. “Our ‘Dual-Dimple Pattern’ will offer less drag and shallow out the landing angle for more roll-out. We will be introducing a new dimple in 2017 that will also add stability and added forgiveness. In addition, we see next generation advances in the ball core. We are moving to a gradational-compression core technology. This will offer one-piece performance, but act like a dual core. We see this offering significant added distance.”

The ball of the future may also be optically different, be it in color or design. Like Volvik and Callaway, Bridgestone representatives see the value of color in certain ball segments, but they say it less than 5 percent of total sales. But they’re working on something novel as well.

“We are always looking at ways to help the golfer and I have a new optics-driven concept ball sitting in my desk right now that we are very excited about,” Elliot says. “It will be very different than anything else on the market. It is still in the R&D stage and will involve a different manufacturing process, but it could be available on the market in 2017.”

Is It All Just a Load of Balls?

Lots of golfers couldn’t care less about what ball they play, especially if they are at the beginner or less-advanced stage. Given that they will be donating a lot of balls per round to the local wildlife, they want something that delivers price performance. After all, they can hit a TaylorMade just as far into the woods as they can hit a Top Flight. But there are differences in performance between brands and models. How much of it is a placebo effect? We all love our golf brands and are passionate about how much superior they are to the competition… but we say the same about our beer, our cars, our phones and everything else.

To succeed in the golf ball business is all about winning user acceptance and distribution. The barriers to entry have diminished a lot over the last 10 years. If Microsoft or Apple decided to muscle in, it would become very interesting indeed.

So you can wrap yourself up in all the ball technology you want. Heck, I’m a lifelong marketing guy; I know how it all works. But the truth is play the ball you’re most comfortable using, one that matches your skill level, personality and pocket.

Bubba summed it up pretty well in his recent signing with Volvik. “As long as the performance differences are not huge, I can have a lot more fun hitting a pink golf ball, so why not?”

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Mark Donaghy is a writer and author from Northern Ireland, living in the picturesque seaside town of Portstewart. He is married to Christine and they have three boys. Mark is a "golf nut," and is lucky to be a member of a classic links, Portstewart Golf Club. At college he played for the Irish Universities golf team, and today he still deludes himself that he can play to that standard. He recently released Caddy Attitudes: 'Looping' for the Rich and Famous in New York. It recounts the life experiences of two young Irish lads working as caddies at the prestigious Shinnecock Hills course in the Hamptons. Mark has a unique writing style, with humorous observations of golfers and their caddies, navigating both the golf course and their respective attitudes. Toss in the personal experiences of a virtually broke couple of young men trying to make a few bucks and their adventures in a culture and society somewhat unknown to them... and you have Caddy Attitudes. From scintillating sex in a sand trap to the comparison of societal status with caddy shack status, the book will grab the attention of anyone who plays the game. Caddy Attitudes is available on Amazon/Kindle and to date it has had excellent reviews.

24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. rasel

    Oct 2, 2017 at 1:54 am

    its a really great idea that you have described here. thanks a lot for this best idea

  2. Joey

    Feb 23, 2017 at 2:15 pm

    Is it just me or do other people just hate when you are playing with people and they will tell you ball doesn’t matter. I was playing the other day and I bought some b330s golf balls and he was wondering why I bought them instead of Top Flights that are half the price. Does anyone know something smart that i can say back to people who comment on balls that i use?

  3. Miuralovechild

    Feb 6, 2017 at 1:20 am

    I can’t wait for the Sams Choice ball from Sam’s Club. They won’t let Costco dominate the ball market.

    • Dan

      Feb 12, 2017 at 10:41 pm

      more likely it will be an Amazon ball right? I’ve been buying all my golf balls from Amazon for the last year+. It’s only a matter of time before they get the same factory as Costco to make their own “prime” ball.

  4. Eye4Golf-Albuquerque

    Feb 1, 2017 at 9:31 pm

    I play on city courses 95% of the time and play 3 times a week, so high end premium balls are not a good return on investment. If you play on high end courses you see some improvement if you play to a 6-12 hdcp, higher no help, lower no brainier. Last time I read the average golfer shoots in mid 90’s. I think it’s great to have such a variety of value priced quality balls Snell,Vice, Wilson Staff and others from $12-32 dozen. Duo’s yellow in winter and Kirkland rest of time are my favorites. Finding the right ball is easier and cheaper than golf clubs.

  5. Kyle p

    Feb 1, 2017 at 12:05 pm

    I’ve read that article countless times with only slight variations over the years with regards to balls and clubs. It comes across as a child writing a report.

    I’m asking the editor, please don’t post articles just for the sake of filling up space.

    This website has always been knowledgeable and insightful and I hope that resumes in the future.

  6. Stevegp

    Feb 1, 2017 at 12:41 am

    Interesting summation article. You “use” the golf ball on every shot. The ball you choose is important (IMHO). The golf ball also is the least expensive piece of equipment you purchase and one that can impact every shot, enjoyment of the game, and your performance.

    • S Hitter

      Feb 1, 2017 at 1:28 am

      No, the least expensive piece of equipment is the tee that you put your ball on

  7. Jim

    Jan 31, 2017 at 5:26 pm

    Absolutely time for ‘the official tournament ball’

    a barrel full on the range and every player loads their bag with them. Period. Different mfrs can sponsor events and their ‘tour compliant’ ball will be the one used that week.

    let the pampered ones cry. They’ll still all have their endorsement deals on the side

  8. george

    Jan 31, 2017 at 11:54 am

    Well, I’ve still got 10 dz B330-RX in the basement. I guess I’ll have to wait another two months zu select a new and improved ball… 😉

  9. cgasucks

    Jan 31, 2017 at 8:30 am

    When it comes to buying new tour level quality balls, the KSig gives you the best deal for your hard earned dollars. I will count the days when it will come back (as per their Chairman’s comments).

    • Tim

      Jan 31, 2017 at 6:23 pm

      Going a little far calling the KSig a tour level ball…good ball for amateurs yes….you know the Costco ball does not or did not go through all the testing a Prov1 or other tour balls go through right…I think you will find the real threat of the KSig ball is for all the off tour balls all the big boys sell…Who would pay $22 or more for a hard cover ball if you could get a urethane ball for $15 a dozen…that is the real threat

  10. Mark

    Jan 31, 2017 at 2:42 am

    Hopefully more affordable. Kirkland have rocked the boat but you find a lot of golfers who want expensive and would not be seen dead with anything that wasn’t from a premium priced brand. And are off 20 and hit it all over the parish and then spend an inordinate amount of time looking for them. “It’s lost mate, this is where Elephants come to die. Not a chance…these are £3.50 each”….

  11. JuNiOR

    Jan 31, 2017 at 12:24 am

    Who Makes the Best Golf Balls?
    Hands down the Kirkland Signature 4 piece!!!
    1. Performance
    2. Price
    3. Did I say price….$30.00 for 2 DOZEN

    • Jim

      Jan 31, 2017 at 12:39 am

      Your talking about an ok ball for the White Tee 15 to 20 handicapper….for a real player, one who makes birdies from the Blue or Back tees the higher end balls are going to be better…why, because the high end balls (Prov1 etc) are built to be and play better…at best with a Kirkland ball your getting a ball with play ability 5 or more years old. Fine for those that just not going to get any better..

      • Brian

        Jan 31, 2017 at 8:43 pm

        Is Titleist paying you per post or an hourly rate?

      • STeve S

        Jan 31, 2017 at 8:52 pm

        Have you seen the testing? Ksig numbers within experimental error of the 2016 Pro V1. If it’s 5 year old technology that means all the BS about new technology is just that…BS.

      • SV

        Feb 1, 2017 at 9:53 am

        A rather snarky comment. Actually a player will do his best with a ball that suits him and they don’t have to be tour level and cost $50 per dozen. Just because someone doesn’t want to pay an exorbitant price for balls doesn’t mean they can’t play. My favorite balls, which unfortunately are no longer available, are the Srixon AD333 and Callaway Diablo HX Tour. By the way, I am 68 years old, play to a 5 handicap and play to it from any set of tees.

  12. MiloTheMarauder

    Jan 30, 2017 at 8:33 pm

    I’m looking forward to playing the new Chrome soft X, hopefully in Truvis.

  13. Adam

    Jan 30, 2017 at 7:01 pm

    Hopefully it goes in the hole a lot more and sooner on each hole!

  14. Geoff

    Jan 30, 2017 at 1:19 pm

    I’ve played the Chromax ball for about 3 years and it simply outperforms other premium balls that I’ve played. They really run out a little more on Drives, approaches and putts. Most players want more distance on their Driver and they often miss greens and putts short. Urethane balls produce more spin of the driver which causes the ball to hook or slice more and stop quickly on a good drive, while the Chromax ball is very straight and picks up a couple of extra yards. On approach shots, the urethane ball will stop and spin back; if most misses are short, you don’t want the ball to spin back. The Chromax ball takes a hop forward and then stops for me. On putts, the urethane ball grips each imperfection on the green and slows down the ball. I hate the putts you leave inches short with the perfect line—that is far less likely to happen with this ball. Pull and hit the same clubs you normally would and hit more greens and hole more putts, it’s really a no-brainer. I’m very happy with the Chromax O.V. ball.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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