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Opinion & Analysis

Golf IQ: A Method for Training It and Measuring It

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The phrase “golf is a mental game” defines many things. Amateurs and average golfers understand the difficulty of execution under the gun, but very few would know what to do even if they had the physical skills of a professional. At its core, strategy and management of our games requires an objective calmness and sequential set of actions/steps to succeed. A high Golf IQ separates the best from all others. But what exactly does “a high Golf IQ” mean?

Consider the golfer we have all encountered. Throughout the round it looked like they were struggling, and we never saw them hit a good shot with the exception of a decent putt or wedge shot here or there. They were very deliberate on the tee box. At the end of the round we thought they shot 82 or worse, but the final number was 73… and they were unhappy with it.

That’s a high Golf IQ: a stingy, quiet and unassuming golfer who prioritizes well.

When I think about golfers with high golf IQs, names like Lydia Ko and Jordan Spieth come to mind. These players are way down the list regarding their physical and ball striking strength. They go about their business navigating the course hitting good shots, but nothing they do is awe inspiring. And they win all the time. Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson also fit the bill. They’re genius golfers. Extremely high Golf IQs!

While the common thread of an excellent short game seems rather obvious, it’s only a small part of the overall behavior of a highly advanced golfer. Through my two decades as a club designer and occasional PGA Tour liaison, I was very fortunate to observe and interact with some of the best players in the world, sometimes on a weekly basis. From that vantage point, it was easy to recognize that the best players were often extremely intelligent people.

These “athletes” are often voracious readers and life learners. If they weren’t playing golf for a living, they may well be attorneys or business executives. They have excellent control of their intellectual faculties… it shows up in the way they play golf.

A Eureka Moment

A few years ago, my daughter Hannah Wood (currently on the University of Oklahoma Women’s Golf Team) received an invitation to one of the most prestigious girl’s junior events in the game: The Kathy Whitworth Invitational played in March in Fort Worth, Texas. At the time she was a relative unknown player with the exception of having qualified for the Junior World and the U.S. Junior the year before. Kathy likes to give unknown girls a shot at playing with the best and she is known to invite the occasional “obscure” from snow states (like ours of Colorado) just to make things interesting. Thank you, Kathy!

The epic winter of 2012-2013 was brutal in Colorado. We had a ton of snow on the ground and it just wouldn’t let up. While ball striking practice was available indoors (with launch monitors) and on heated outdoor driving ranges, short-game practice and playing golf was impossible. The thought of Hannah going down to Texas having not played a single round in months was daunting at best and terrifying to her. As a single parent who was financially unable to send her somewhere South to get in some rounds, I had to find a way to exercise her golfing prowess in the absence of actual play.

A Eureka moment hit me one snowy morning on the way to work. What if I devised a test to make her mind play golf virtually? But this could be no ordinary test; it had to be situational, yet extremely difficult and make her use her head — just like what a competitive round of golf would do. Regardless of how she scored, the very act of taking the test molded her playing ethos and prepared her for this very high-level completion.

Because of the test and a few other fortuitous events, Hannah won the event and skyrocketed to No. 3 (from 389th) in the Polo Rankings for her class of 2014. Her life was changed forever. While this may sound like a Cinderella Story, it was no accident. That week, she had the highest golf IQ in the event. Hannah played her own game and gave every shot its complete effort and thought. She certainly didn’t have the physical attributes or playing opportunities of competitors in the field like Baily Tardy, Angel Yin, Hannah O’Sullivan or Kristin Gilman.

Out of desperation and the will for my daughter to succeed, I had inadvertently created a method of strengthening the approach to playing competitive golf. This patent-pending process forces golfers to use their cognitive resources and to play the game in their mind, remotely and in an abstract way. It forces recall of the steps to produce golf shots and strategy required to successfully navigate the course.

Earlier this year, I wrote a similar test for the University of Oklahoma. While the results of that endeavor are unclear, the team was forced to think about their games in a virtual and situational way. Last year the team finished No. 58 in the Golfweek rankings, but as of this writing the team is ranked 21st. Interestingly, the test scores follow the intra-team rankings perfectly. In other words, the highest and lowest scores on the test correlate precisely with the player rank.

Some samples of the test are below.

Measuring Aptitude

There is a straight-forward correlation of the knowledge required to hit certain shots and a golfer’s ability to troubleshoot his or her game on the fly. But regardless of that knowledge, golfers must organize their actions and make use of every ounce of intellectual energy to succeed.

A high Golf IQ encompasses the following areas:

  • Reconnaissance and responsible mapping of the course.
  • Preparation and a quality approach to practice.
  • Tee protocol and pre-shot protocol.
  • Appropriate rehearsal motions.
  • Intuition and judgment regarding percentages; realistic pursuit.
  • Maturity, humbleness, patience and being devoid of heroic behavior.
  • Post-shot observation and actions.
  • Aloofness to competitive circumstance: concentration on sequential steps to hitting quality shots over a long period of time.

The above defines what the Golf IQ is and what this process measures: to use the mind while guiding the body to execute tasks to an end. Without going into all of the specifics of the above, the reader is invited to sample some of the test questions below. Be very careful with your answers. These questions assume a minimum level of competency, essentially for single-digit players or better. It assumes you have the ability to shape the ball or hit risky wedge shots.

Also, you will not find all of the answers in this article. Regardless of the answer key and what I think the correct answers should be, the aim of this exercise is to make you think about playing the game.

To date, there are more than 500 such questions in the database that can be found on my website: www.MyGolfIQ.com. Soon, the tests will be inclusive and arranged for all levels of golfer and gender.

Let’s start with a fairly easy question, if not blatantly obvious.

1. The ball curves more when I am hitting it into the wind and less when I am hitting downwind. 

  • True
  • False

Most relatively skilled players know that hitting a ball into the wind not only makes it fly shorter, but make it more difficult to keep shots online. The technical issue has to do with the amount of friction being applied to the ball as it travels through the air. If a golf ball has 4000 rpm of spin and it is going through the air at 125 mph (ground speed) into a 20 mph wind that means the air speed/spin relationship is 4000 rpm/145 mph. The ball is going to be much more affected into the wind and will slice or hook more.

By design, this question will prompt golfers of any kind to remember this very cerebral and cognitive piece of the golfing puzzle the next time they are confronted with the situation.

And while we’re on the topic of wind, here’s another question that may be less obvious to anyone without a single-digit handicap. The next time they play in the wind, they’ll remember some of these things.

2. Playing in extremely heavy wind:

  1. Tighter grip.
  2. Slightly wider stance.
  3. Maintain tempo and don’t try to muscle the ball.
  4. Keep my head steady.
  5. Knock everything down, low-and-flighted trajectory regardless of the shot.
  6. 2 and 3.
  7. All of the above.

This process removes the golfer from the physical pressure of having to experiment with their body and shot making. It allows them to think about these conditions using their memory and problem-solving acuities. And unlike reading a 300-page book about playing golf, the process engages the player interactively (rather than making them drink through a firehose) replete with all the verbiage and memory-intensive requirements that an instructional book brings.

Like in a round of golf or our development as players, the process is preparing the test taker for increasing layers of complexity. As golfers, we have all been confronted with situations where our decision making was stressed. Here we not only had to make a good swing, but the situational variables applied a completely different set of decisions that had little to do with swing… but management of the course and our score. In this case, it is more like a video game or a chess move.

3. Consider the question below.

I’ve just hit my drive well right on a par-5; pretty far offline in the rough. There isn’t a lot of fairway for me to hit my second shot into the “garden spot,” the best range for me to hit my third shot close for a birdie putt. I have to hit a pretty big and long left-to-right shot to get it there, but my ball is sitting down in the rough. To the left of the garden spot is a cart path, more rough, trees and white stakes (OB). In front of me and blocking the green is a stand of trees with a lake just to the right of them. If I hit one of them, my ball might deflect into the water. It’s a very small green with lots of bunkers protecting it. I have to make a birdie to stay in the game. I’m running out of holes.

  1. Hit down on the ball as hard as possible and shape the shot left-to-right into the perfect place (the garden spot) and make birdie. Be aggressive! Let’s win this thing right now!
  2. Wedge it back to the fairway to get the ball back into play. Even if I have to hit a long iron to the green, I can continue my round and “live to fight another day.” I can make par with my short game.
  3. I’m pretty good with the short irons. If I can knock it to 135 yards or so, I can hit it in there with a short iron or wedge depending on the wind and lie. It might work. Might have a little bit of a weird stance…sort of downhill and a hanging lie. I don’t have to shape it too much to get it there. It’s not too hard of a second shot and it gives me a good look at the green and a chance at a birdie.
  4. With the ball sitting down in the rough, it might be difficult to “carve it” into the garden spot as the ball spins less from this type of lie. Trying to hit a big fade or draw could result in disaster if the shot goes too straight.
  5. Regardless of what shot I hit, make good and sure that the face of my club is clean so whatever I do the grooves will be as effective as possible.
  6. 1, 3 and 5
  7. 2 and 4
  8. 3, 4 and 5
  9. The right answer isn’t here

Did you visualize yourself playing golf? The next time you’re out playing in the club championship or a nassau with your buddies, remember to use your head. Treat the game as a delicate balance between your graceful motions and responsible navigation of the day’s efforts. You’ll be a lot better golfer as a result.

Here are a few more questions. 

What is a FLYER lie?

  1. Ball in the rough sitting way high…could use a driver.
  2. A ball in the rough, sitting sort of up but with a little grass behind it. This can cause the ball to come out hot taking all the spin off and going too far.
  3. Similar to 2, but it’s wet.
  4. Great lie in the fairway.
  5. None of the above.
  6. 2 or 3.

Normally, the worst mis-hit from a bunker is:

  1. Take too much sand.
  2. Blade it.
  3. Face too open…ball goes too high.
  4. Put too much spin or not enough spin on the shot.
  5. Leave it in the bunker.
  6. All of the above… they are all going to result in at least a bogey.
  7. None of the above.
  8. 2 or 5.

Lee Trevino once quipped: “You can talk to a fade but a hook won’t listen.” What did he mean?

  1. Hooking shots tend to carve more than wanted… at least for him.
  2. Because hooks go farther on tee shots, they can get away from you.
  3. In general, for stronger players who don’t need the distance, a fade is a more controllable shot.
  4. All of the above.
  5. None of the above.
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Don Wood is a 25-year veteran of the golf industry, and is the owner of MyGolfIQ.com. He has worked in golf equipment R&D, design and manufacturing for companies such as Cleveland Golf, Golfsmith, Wood Brothers Golf and more, and spent many years working with some of the best players in the world on their equipment needs. Don has many U.S. Patents pertaining to fitting and short-game golf equipment. He is currently a member of the instructional staff at Common Ground Golf Club in Colorado. You can follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Chris Houston

    Feb 21, 2017 at 4:10 pm

    Whoever commented about “caveman” golf… Those players who deny strategy are simply too stupid to know that they naturally possess sound golf strategy and intuition. I don’t think Dustin Johnson thinks too much on the course, but what he is thinking is correct and he has a natural gift to do so. He doesn’t know he is doing it, but he is.

  2. Scott

    Feb 16, 2017 at 3:26 pm

    Would love to take the quiz or even a sample one (with answers) but not for $300!!

    • Don Wood

      Feb 16, 2017 at 4:21 pm

      It’s $24.99 for the special introductory offer.

  3. Tcope

    Feb 16, 2017 at 12:26 pm

    $300 seems a little steep for something like this.

  4. Deadeye

    Feb 16, 2017 at 9:56 am

    This article reminds me of why I always preferred to walk as opposed to riding a cart when I played. It gave me time to assess how I was going to play my next shot. I could run through all the variables like distance, angles,obstacles,wind,and then when I was standing over the ball I could judge the actual lie. Unless I had a really bad lie I had already decided what club to use and whether par or better was even possible any more. Knowing when to walk off feeling good about making no worse than bogey has saved me many strokes. I was 25 before I started playing golf, about the time John Daly was born. Grip it and rip it was not a common term then but that’s how I played. I lost a lot of Golden Ram balls before I figured out that , as in life, some analysis was required before I made my next move. I ride in a cart now and this constant reevaluating of where I stand on the hole and in the round takes place much more quickly now due to experience. I am always envious of players like Jordan Spieth who seem to have fifty years of golf IQ when they are twenty. It’s a great game no matter what level we play at.

  5. RonaldRump

    Feb 15, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    This is “fake news”.

  6. Weekend Duffer

    Feb 15, 2017 at 2:39 pm

    Author calls Lydia Ko a poor ballstriker…lol

    • Don Wood

      Feb 15, 2017 at 3:26 pm

      Lydia Ko is an exceptional ball striker. She doesn’t have the size, distance nor overall horsepower that Lexie Thompson or Ariya Jutanugarn or many others on the LPGA Tour. But she has all the shots. And she totally uses her intellectual skills to execute them.

    • Weekday Pro

      Feb 15, 2017 at 4:46 pm

      No he doesn’t. He said, “regarding their physical and ball striking STRENGTH.” He was referencing Speith and Ko, and his daughter’s, limited physical capabilities compared to their peers. He clearly meant Jordan can not drive the ball as far as JD or DJ and he is usually at least a club shorter from similar distances through the bag. Same with Ko. That doesn’t mean she is a poor ballstriker, just a less powerful one. Which is often times why those golfers have to have an higher IQ. They don’t overpower courses they plot around them. Don’t disparage an author because you misrepresent their actual words.

    • XLee2000

      Feb 16, 2017 at 6:48 pm

      And THAT’S why comments on social media are as bad as they are. Reading comprehension seems to be at an all time low in America these days!

  7. Steve

    Feb 15, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    The author is a bit disingenuous in writing his daughter was a relative unknown at the time of her invitation to the Whitworth.

    This from the U of OK website:

    http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=31000&ATCLID=209618503

    BEFORE COLLEGE
    Named All-Colorado and all-conference all four years of high school … Placed third in the state tournament her sophomore and junior years and second as a senior … Recorded a 75.7 high school career scoring average … Set school record for low round (68) … Ranked fourth in her class and 20th overall in the Polo Junior Rankings … Won the 2013 Kathy Whitworth Invitational … Won the 2012 and 2013 Tournament of Champions … Finished in the top 20 in the Girl’s Junior America’s Cup in 2012 and 2013 (represented Team Colorado) … Competed in five USGA events, including the 2013 U.S. Women’s Public Links that was played at the Jimmie Austin OU Golf Club.

    • Don Wood

      Feb 15, 2017 at 5:03 pm

      Thank you for that research. But at the time she was invited to compete in the Whitworth, she had a reputation here in Colorado…but certainly not in the National or Global arena.

      • Steve

        Feb 15, 2017 at 5:33 pm

        She’s turned out to be an excellent golfer. I wish only the best of luck to her.

  8. JustTrying2BAwesome

    Feb 15, 2017 at 1:20 pm

    Great article. I love a more in depth view of the competitive golfer and how they approach the game and a tournament. Also, cool golf course/brain picture.

  9. Looper

    Feb 15, 2017 at 1:03 pm

    If golf isn’t hard enough!!! Way to much info, imagine trying to explain this to a junior… We sometimes forget its a game…

    • Mongoose

      Feb 15, 2017 at 1:06 pm

      Great point… Camilo Villegas said it best, “caveman golf, hit ball, find ball, hit ball again”. Making the “game” more complicated…

    • Don Wood

      Feb 15, 2017 at 1:17 pm

      Thank you for that input. I heard it said best by Jack Burke JR…a Masters Champion.
      “There are two kinds of golfers in this world: There are highly cerebral mechanics like Tom Watson or Jack Nicklaus. And then there are athletes like Hal Sutton or Sam Sneed”. One or the other works well.

      • Looper

        Feb 15, 2017 at 2:26 pm

        Thank you for responding to my opinion. I’m sure your knowledge far outweighs mine, but growing up playing reactionary sports I try to do the same in golf. I am 53 years of age and have had only one instructor, and have found that feel vs. thought has worked best for me. Thanks again my dear friend…

      • Michael A Preiss

        Feb 16, 2017 at 12:09 am

        Seems the cerebral/mechanics records speak for itself , but either way enjoy it!

    • Chris Houston

      Feb 21, 2017 at 4:07 pm

      If you can’t comprehend this, you will never make it to a truly competitive level. These are just basics in the grand scheme of golf strategy. He is spot on here, with virtually everything he said in the article. If you want your junior to get recruited, you can start by understanding the situational events he or she faces on the course. That situation he describes with “hitting toward the garden spot” is a perfect scenario that you will see all the time in college and beyond. Have to be able to limit mental mistakes that you can control. Decision making is key!

  10. stephenf

    Feb 15, 2017 at 11:59 am

    “These players (Spieth and Ko) are way down the list regarding their physical and ball striking strength…”

    Good grief. The fact that they restrain and control the strength they have doesn’t mean they don’t have “physical and ball-striking strength.” Sheesh.

  11. Buford T Justice

    Feb 15, 2017 at 11:22 am

    Step 1: Grip It
    Step 2: Rip It

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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