Opinion & Analysis

The myth of playing to your handicap, and why it’s ruining your expectations

Published

8 years ago

Oct 17, 2016

When was the last time you came in from a round of golf, shooting four or five strokes higher than expected, and said, “Huh, that’s fine. Maybe I’ll do better next time.” For most of you reading this article, this rarely (if ever) happens. Why? Because you love golf, you’re competitive, and you expect to shoot a certain score every time out.

For many golfers, that score is defined by their handicap. As a fellow golfer, I can sympathize with lofty expectations, but where we need to look is the basis of your expectations and why typical thinking could lead to regular disappointment in your scoring.

You Are Not Your Handicap

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard players say, “I didn’t play to my handicap,” therefore insinuating they had a bad round. What does “playing to your handicap” actually mean, though? Well, if your course handicap is 10, then it means shooting 10 strokes over the course rating.

Take a course that’s a par-70 and has a course rating of 71.0. Playing to your handicap means shooting 81. Pretty simple. Now, keep in mind that the USGA handicap system uses the 10 best scores out of your last 20 to determine your current handicap. Therefore, the scores used to make up your handicap are a picture of your best golf. It does not take into account the times you had one of those days.

Imagine being a salesman and being evaluated on your best six months in the last year. That might be nice, right? But is it a picture of who you truly are as a salesman?

You Are Your Average

With an in-depth look at your score history, you can gain a clearer picture of where your game truly stands. In the real-life example below, I plotted a 10-handicapper’s scores on a course with a rating of 71.0. He had a range of scores from 76 to 90 and an average of 83.85.

This player’s score history is very typical of the majority of regular golfers out there. Most will have a spread of 12-15 strokes (better players usually have an even wider spread) and have roughly two thirds of their scores within 3-5 shots of the average.

Notice that this player has only played to his handicap five times! He has, however, scored average or better nine times out of the last 20 rounds and a fraction above average (84) three additional times. If his expectation is to play to his handicap or better every time out, he’s going to leave the golf course disappointed 75 percent of the time. With a better understanding of his average score, he’s more likely to accept an 83 or an 85 as it’s a more realistic expectancy of his game at this point in time.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting that players shouldn’t intend to play well. Having a clear intention of playing great golf is a fantastic way to begin any round. However, expecting to play our best and not accepting anything less can create a constant sense of frustration and actually keep players from playing to their potential more often.

Dr. Rick Jensen, a sports psychologist who has coached multiple men’s and women’s tour professionals to major championship victories, categorizes this as a “focus of energy problem,” which is often highlighted by unrealistic expectations that lead to anxiety and frustration.

“You can only play better than average half the time,” Dr. Jensen points out, which highlights an important fact. Your average score is the truest picture of your game. Don’t be the player who hides from the facts. Instead, put together a plan to improve.

Be Realistic and Look for Opportunities

An honest look at your scores can lead to an evaluation of why you’re shooting the numbers you are and where you have opportunities to shave off some strokes. Start viewing your average as the number you want to lower instead of your course handicap or handicap index. I recommend using a stat -tracking program, such as ShotbyShot.com, which will prioritize the area(s) where you need to focus in order to improve your average score.

If you choose to track your stats on your own, be sure to consider the following:

All missed fairways are not the same, as just tracking fairways hit or missed can be misleading. Are you driving it 3 yards into the rough or behind trees and into hazards? If you’re driving it in play, just not always in the fairway, then your driver may not be the problem.
Hitting greens in regulation is critical to scoring, but not the whole picture. Driving the ball in play should give you opportunities to get the ball on the green, but how close are you hitting it to the hole when you have the chance? If your approach shots are too far from the hole, it will lead to more three putts and higher scores.
We know that having a good short game is a quick recipe to shooting lower scores, but merely tracking up and downs may not provide enough information. Be sure to keep track of how far you’re chipping and pitching the ball from the hole. Leaving yourself 12 feet every time for par or bogey will not lead to consistent saves. If you’re chipping it to 5 feet and missing the putts, however, then your short putting needs to take priority.

Most of us can agree that players with negative outlooks on their golf game rarely play to their potential. Only evaluating yourself based on your best scores leads to a constant grind to play your very best, which we know is not going to happen every time we tee it up. Make sure to appreciate your best golf, and have a clear intention to play great whenever you play.

Be realistic with where you are as a player, however, and use the numbers as a way to evaluate your improvement over time. Work on the areas of your game that will positively influence your scoring, and enjoy the process. You’re more likely to walk off the course happy… and maybe even with a couple of your friend’s dollars in your pocket.

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Dean Kandle

Dean Kandle is a PGA Head Golf Professional and fortunate to have the opportunity to help the members of St. Davids Golf Club in Wayne, Pennsylvania, improve and enjoy the game of golf. He has been teaching the game to players for more than 15 years and also founded the website, mygolf180.com. My Golf 180 is dedicated to sharing ideas and methods to help players experience lasting growth and improvement in their games. During his career, Dean has been the Head Professional at multiple “Top 100” clubs, been mentored by top coaches and instructors, and has been successful in building innovative and effective player development programs for players of all abilities at each step of the way. Find more info at mygolf180.com or connect with Dean, [email protected] or @deankandle.

28 Comments

Steven

Oct 20, 2016 at 12:11 pm

Great article. This also illustrates many sports psychologists points that focusing on score isn’t what leads to success. Goals should focus more on the process. Count how many times in a round you made the smooth swing you worked on or something like that. Focusing on the process of getting better is what actually leads to success (decreased handicap).

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 27, 2016 at 7:18 pm
  
  Agreed! Process will produce results more often than focusing on score. Focused practice that addresses your needs will help scores come down quicker.
  
  Reply Report comment
mat

Oct 19, 2016 at 11:00 am

maybe trying to have other expectations than lowering your handicap will make you a ( better, happier) golfer?

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:21 am
  
  Well, happier would depend on the person but lowering your handicap would mean lower scores and therefore becoming a “better” golfer!
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Double Mocha Man
    
    Oct 21, 2016 at 11:41 am
    
    I think it’s time for Smizzle to post his own picture.
    
    Reply Report comment
BD57

Oct 18, 2016 at 9:28 pm

Truth be told, you “play to your handicap” in the neighborhood of 25% of the time.

A handicap is based upon best 10 of 20 scores, and ‘averaging’ is involved, which (in very rough terms) means 1/2 of those 10 scores will be ‘better’ than average and 1/2 will be worse.

So if you start “playing to your current handicap” – at least, as most people mean it when they say it – your handicap is going to be GOING DOWN.

And you won’t be playing to it any more. 🙂

Reply Report comment
Ron

Oct 18, 2016 at 4:54 pm

Don’t forget about equitable scoring. My handicap would be a lot closer to my average if I was allowed to post the occasional snowman or worse that I take. Since I’m limited to no more than a 7 on any hole, my handicap is artificially low.

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:23 am
  
  Great point Ron and even more evidence of why your handicap is not the best reflection of your game. Track your scores without adjusting for equitable stroke control and that’s going to be the most accurate picture of your game.
  
  Reply Report comment
- KK
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:54 pm
  
  You limit yourself to no more than a 7 on any hole. That’s called cheating. Not everyone cheats.
  
  Reply Report comment
Pingback: The myth of playing to your handicap, and why it’s ruining your expectations | Swing Update
Sean

Oct 17, 2016 at 9:28 pm

Well said Dean. You raise a good point, one I never was really cognizant of.

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:24 am
  
  Thanks Sean!
  
  Reply Report comment
Nick

Oct 17, 2016 at 3:30 pm

I wish the handicap system would be more around an average or like you middle 50% of scores, I feel like it may help lower handicap players compete against higher handicap players.

Reply Report comment
Tom D

Oct 17, 2016 at 2:51 pm

I never thought of my handicap index as an average. I do know that the only way to lower my index is to score lower. That’s why I use my index as the target score for each round. If I shoot under, my index will eventually go down. If I shoot over, my index will eventually go up. I want a little challenge when I start a round, to push me to play better and/or practice better. I couldn’t really tell if the point of the article was “Don’t feel bad if you shoot over your handicap” or “Don’t try to shoot your handicap, it’s too hard and you need less challenge in your golf game.”

Since I don’t make living from playing golf, there really isn’t any pressure on me to play better or score lower. Using my handicap index as my target score gives me at least a little pressure in an otherwise meaningless round.

Reply Report comment
Dave r

Oct 17, 2016 at 1:03 pm

Good article and right on , But this still does not take care of the baggers but then that’s another topic ,and how do you control it?

Reply Report comment
- Egor
  
  Oct 17, 2016 at 3:10 pm
  
  Sandbagging a handicap should be hard to do (it’s not, but it should be) and the handicap system makes provision for that.
  
  1st, The 10 highest of the last 20 scores are thrown out.
  2nd, scores are supposed to be attested whenever possible. USGA requires 3 scores per year to be attested or the player should have NH next to their index.
  3rd, T scores according to 10-3 can reduce the handicap accordingly
  4th, the handicap committee has the *responsibility* of adjusting a player’s handicap if it is determined their handicap is not reflective of their playing ability.
  
  If your handicap chairman is not doing his job or the handicap committee of the club isn’t, they should be corrected or the USGA made aware so that corrections can be made. A handicap is only as accurate as the player posting scores and then the committee reviewing the scores and playing along with the player in question.
  
  It’s not perfect, but if the handicap committee follows the rules the USGA has worked out, it should be more difficult for someone to sandbag. It’s not impossible and if someone wants to cheat, they will.
  
  Reply Report comment
Double Mocha Man

Oct 17, 2016 at 12:33 pm

Somewhat on topic… related. For all of you out there who think you hit the ball longer than you actually do (most of us) jump on your computer and make a chart showing how far you hit each club. Print it out. Carry it in your bag.

Now, through the magic of word processing on your computer, go back and TAKE 5 YARDS OFF every club distance. Print it out, carry it in your bag. Use that one on the course. Use the other one to blow your nose. Watch your scores improve.

Reply Report comment
Paul Dunn

Oct 17, 2016 at 11:41 am

I’ve always worked on the basis that you should only really play to your handicap or better every one in five rounds. Doing so more than that will most likely result in a handicap cut, and rightly so.

Reply Report comment
Chris

Oct 17, 2016 at 11:01 am

This article is spot on. Just this morning on Golf Channel’s Morning Drive, they were perpetuating the myth that your handicap is your average in their bell curve segment. Ironically, the intent was to illustrate that your scores have scatter.

Reply Report comment
AJS

Oct 17, 2016 at 11:00 am

Good article. If scores are normally distributed, the difference between the average of your last 20 stroke differentials versus the average of your 10 best is the standard deviation of your scores, probably about 3 strokes. And don’t forget about the impact of slope when going from handicap to “expected” score. Even for a scratch/plus player this could add 1 stroke.

Reply Report comment
- Dean
  
  Oct 20, 2016 at 7:26 am
  
  Yes, for the players I’ve tracked, I’ve found a typical standard deviation of 3-4 strokes,
  
  Reply Report comment
Egor

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:37 am

I use two things to analyze my game – TheGrint.com for free handicap and ArccosGolf.com for tracking what I’m actually doing on the course. After 60+ rounds in Arccos, I know where some of my weakness is – driving in the fairway – so I’ve devoted some time to fix what I’m doing wrong with my driver. I’m getting better at putting it 250-270 in the fairway with my driver.

TheGrint gives me a free real handicap that I can use for tournament play (I don’t.. ever ..) but it also let’s me know that I float between 11.5 – 13.5 depending on my rounds.

Reply Report comment
Mr. Wedge

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:32 am

Article is spot on. Most people simply do not understand the USGA handicapping system and inadvertently equate it to their “average”. I try to educate and simplify by telling people it’s what you would expect to shoot if you are having a really good round.

Reply Report comment
Eric C O'Brien

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:23 am

Expectations ! Why is that so often one scores best on the day that one’s expectations are low ?

Reply Report comment
Double Mocha Man

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:19 am

I don’t let my score, up or down, frustrate me. I’m looking for a certain quality of shots that I expect to execute based on past performance. And I’m looking for consistency. I can have a higher score and leave the course elated. Or I can have a lower score and exit the course puzzled.

Reply Report comment
Paul

Oct 17, 2016 at 10:11 am

I also think people tend to over estimate their handicap which tends to let them down. Ive heard a lot of guys say, “Oh I’m a 10.” And they’ve never shot below an 90 in their life. If people were honest about their handicap they would enjoy them game more. I worked hard for my 22 handicap!!!! LOL

Reply Report comment
- Tom.
  
  Oct 17, 2016 at 1:49 pm
  
  honesty in this sport is rare. But I do agree.
  
  Reply Report comment
Philip

Oct 17, 2016 at 9:42 am

I think of my handicap as a target to beat – nothing more. I usually play to my average which tends to float close to my handicap.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

13 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

13 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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