Opinion & Analysis

How being honest with yourself can shave 5 strokes off your game

Published

8 years ago

Aug 19, 2016

Ask a room full of golf pros to agree on the longest-held misconception most golfers have, and there’s a good chance you would ultimately hear this: how far they truly hit the ball.

Unlike just a few years ago, though, affordable distance-measuring devices now allow many of us pros to back up these age-old claims with cold, hard (and often painful) facts. And while it can be humbling to stand before that Doppler device and be confronted with the truth about your distances (or lack thereof), there are good reasons we have those misconceptions and some game-changing benefits to discovering the truth.

First, the reasons.

Ask the average male golfer how far he drives it, and you invariably hear a number north of 220 yards. A 7 iron? “Oh, about 150.” There is a stigma attached to being a short-knocker, especially among men, and this subconsciously conflates our perceptions of how far we actually hit the ball. I’ll give you the true data in a moment, but if we want to improve, most of us need to come to terms with the fact that no one (other than ourselves) is confusing us with an escapee from the Re/Max World Long Drive Circuit.

Ask golfers how far they hit a given club, and most incorrectly include roll in that equation. That’s fine for tee shots, but it’s trouble for approach shots. Tour players don’t calculate roll into their approach shots: only how far they carry it. Approach clubs roll between 5 and 15 yards, and if you’re factoring that in you will be consistently short. Golf course architects know this, so consequently, where do you think they place the majority of the hazards? That’s right, short of the green.

Most golfers base their yardages with each club on a good shot — likely their best shot. Depending upon your handicap, though, chances are the percentage of time you actually hit that “best shot” are pretty close to the same percentage of chances a snow ball has of surviving you know where. We have a hard time intentionally playing for something less than our best, and better players often get most caught up in this trap because they have the hardest time accepting that they don’t always hit it perfect. Tour players know how far they carry each club on average, not that 1 in 10 outlier, and if you want to save strokes you should too.

Eric Jones, an actual Re/Max World Long Drive Champion, fellow PGA Professional, and friend of mine, has worked with a lot of average golfers using radar to chart how far they carry the ball. He then tested them by having them play rounds using their yardages as shown via radar to determine club selection. The stunning results of his testing is that the average golfer improved by more than 5 strokes per round. The real kicker? His tests were conducted with both men and women, and women suffered far less from the distance misconception. So if you’re the average red-blooded American male, your results will likely be even better.

Here are the cold-hard facts.

More than 80 percent of male golfers swing the driver slower than 100 mph, and about 60 percent are slower than 95 mph. With optimal launch and spin rates, a drive hit with a 95-mph swing will carry almost 200 yards, quite a bit short of the aforementioned minimum most men admit to. This means that, at the very least, most male golfers out there are either misinformed, or just not being honest with themselves. And I’m being generous here, since we all know plenty of guys who claim to hit it 250, 275, or even 300.

If you want to shave 5 strokes off your score today, figure out how far you really carry your clubs, on the average. To do that, you may need to pay your local pro a few bucks to spend an hour with you on their radar device. And while that may not sound as sexy as buying the latest and greatest driver on the market, it won’t cost as much, is a bigger game-changer, and you won’t have to spend near as much time explaining it to your wife next month when the club bill comes due.

Let me know what you think.

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Mike Dowd

Mike Dowd is the author of the new novel COMING HOME and the Lessons from the Golf Guru: Wit, Wisdom, Mind-Tricks & Mysticism for Golf and Life series. He has been Head PGA Professional at Oakdale Golf & CC in Oakdale, California since 2001, and is serving his third term on the NCPGA Board of Directors and Chairs the Growth of the Game Committee. Mike has introduced thousands of people to the game and has coached players that have played golf collegiately at the University of Hawaii, San Francisco, U.C. Berkeley, U.C. Davis, University of the Pacific, C.S.U. Sacramento, C.S.U. Stanislaus, C.S.U. Chico, and Missouri Valley State, as men and women on the professional tours. Mike currently lives in Turlock, California with his wife and their two aspiring LPGA stars, where he serves on the Turlock Community Theatre Board, is the past Chairman of the Parks & Recreation Commission and is a member of the Kiwanis Club of Greater Turlock. In his spare time (what's that?) he enjoys playing golf with his girls, writing, music, fishing and following the foibles of the Sacramento Kings, the San Francisco 49ers, the San Francisco Giants, and, of course, the PGA Tour. You can find Mike at mikedowdgolf.com.

42 Comments

Pingback: How being honest with yourself can shave 5 strokes off your game
SunkTheBirdie

Aug 23, 2016 at 7:23 am

Being honest can shave 5 strokes off your game. But foot wedges, creative counting, generous mulligans, “Finding” the unfindable ball shaves 5-15 strokes !

Reply Report comment
Dave

Aug 22, 2016 at 9:49 pm

Very good Dale you got it . Even the smiz makes more sense than you. No disrespect to you smiz .

Reply Report comment
Double Mocha Man

Aug 22, 2016 at 11:06 am

Knowing the distance you hit any given club is totally a chess game. You can’t determine it on the range… most use limited distance golf balls. If you determine it on the course on August 22nd (and 88 degrees) it will be different than on December 22nd (and the accompanying 38 degrees). Rain will take yardage off a ball. And wind… let’s not even talk about the wind and its variability. And if you determine your yardage with a Pro V1 golf ball but today you’re playing a Callaway Chrome Soft, now what? Binding clothing… that affects your distance. What if your muscles are tight today? So many variables, so few greens to hit.

Reply Report comment
- larrybud
  
  Aug 22, 2016 at 4:39 pm
  
  You definitely need to chart these things out, but I agree that most golfers have an unrealistic view of their baseline distances. I tested my SS with just a shirt on, vs a jacket, and with driver it moved by as much a 5 mph.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Double Mocha Man
    
    Aug 22, 2016 at 5:11 pm
    
    Good point. Now try it in a Batman costume.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Stylo
      
      Aug 24, 2016 at 1:17 am
      
      How about doing it in the buff ?
      
      Reply Report comment
    - Dead Fish
      
      Aug 29, 2016 at 2:43 pm
      
      I get max distance dressed as Pikachu and yelling PIKA during my backswing followed by a load CHUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU! at impact!
      
      Reply Report comment
matthew

Aug 21, 2016 at 4:14 pm

a swing speed of 95mph with optimal launch conditions will result in a carry of over 230 yards, not 200.

Reply Report comment
- flint nunnelly
  
  Sep 7, 2016 at 8:58 pm
  
  No, no, if you would be honest, you realize 95 mph will never carry 230, my gosh how i wish it would!
  
  Reply Report comment
Chris

Aug 21, 2016 at 9:00 am

Course management is definitely worth a few shots on the card. That’s what we are really talking about. Know your distances, use your scoring clubs to do the damage and avoid your weaknesses.

I use a range finder to check my distance on every hole. I play 9 and pitching wedge most accurately so I try my best to get in the 120 to 135 meter range whenever I can. this has made a huge difference in my game.

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KK

Aug 20, 2016 at 10:03 pm

Dead presidents are the best motivation for honesty. When you have cash on the line and the other guy is on the green, you think long and hard about trying to hit a perfect 8 iron on a 145 yd uphill shot. As far as driver, the problem is that most golfers suck with the club and most off-the-rack drivers suck because they are too long and too spinny.

Reply Report comment
Brent

Aug 20, 2016 at 7:49 am

Great article. Not only has the yardage honesty helped my scores but so has not cheating and forgetting to add a penalty every now and again. My scores used to be in the 80’s with cheating, but I realized that was stopping me from actually playing well. When I counted every strike and penalty I was around 105 on average. In one summer I’m back down to the mid to high 80’s, but honestly this time. The other thing that helped was checking out the LPGA stats on length. Those ladies swing around the same speed I do on average (93-95 driver), but of course hit it MUCH better. Many of them hit their 7 or even 6 iron as a 150 club and carry the driver 200-215. They still shoot in the 60’s and 70’s. We should stop being macho and start playing our own game!

Reply Report comment
- mike dowd
  
  Aug 20, 2016 at 12:10 pm
  
  Glad you liked it and great comments. Even guys at the top end of the yardage spectrum can benefit from this perspective. I’ve spent a lot of time with really good players on launch monitors and one thing I can tell all of you who think this is exclusively an average players’ or an old man’s problem is that it’s not. A lot of times it’s the testosterone-fueled egos of those who hit it the farthest who are the most self-deluded. The real point is that finding out how far you truly hit the ball can be a game-changer, and with the availability of so much affordable distance measuring technology out there today (much of which has been mentioned) there is no good reason we can’t. Unless of course we don’t really want to. 🙂
  
  Reply Report comment
  - James
    
    May 13, 2018 at 9:27 pm
    
    This is an old thread that I stumbled across, but I do want to point out that you seem to have made either a mathematical or typographical error.
    
    You said:
    
    “With optimal launch and spin rates, a drive hit with a 95-mph swing will carry almost 200 yards…”
    
    According to Trackman’s optimizer numbers, optimal launch/spin with a 95mph swing will net a carry of 230 yards. Flightscope’s online trajectory optimizer yields a similar result. I am guessing you made a typo and meant to say “85” instead of “95”?
    
    Reply Report comment
Troy Vayanos

Aug 20, 2016 at 3:05 am

Great post Mike,

Yes so true, I regularly play with guys that use clubs that they simply cannot reach the green with purely because of ego. If they would just put that aside and use the club they actually need I’m sure they would reduce their scores.

Regards

Reply Report comment
Dave

Aug 19, 2016 at 9:13 pm

Sean you are the example of honesty . How many of us can say they were long on a hole not very many.

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Dave

Aug 19, 2016 at 9:07 pm

Hey there youngster my index is 4.5 I’m 66 years old and all the old guys I play with are better or the same and I bet you every one of us old guys could kick your ass every day of the week. We all learnt over the years how far we hit it that’s why we play to what we play to. All you young guys have no idea how far 255 yards of carry is ????????????????????????

Reply Report comment
- Dale Doback
  
  Aug 21, 2016 at 10:23 pm
  
  Sure we do, a 255 yard carry is 255 yards which is probably 200 yards further than you can still see your ball in the air.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Stylo
    
    Aug 24, 2016 at 1:19 am
    
    Come on, get your hand out of your pocket and stop feeling cocky.
    
    I have money on old mate Dave.
    
    Reply Report comment
Sean

Aug 19, 2016 at 7:30 pm

I have the opposite problem. I am very realistic about how far I hit each club and have a tendency to over club. Today for example, over clubbing cost me six strokes.

Reply Report comment
- Scooter McGavin
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 10:40 pm
  
  Was it 5 or 6 strokes, Sean? Get your story straight…
  
  Reply Report comment
- KK
  
  Aug 20, 2016 at 9:41 pm
  
  LOL. Not being honest about being too honest.
  
  Reply Report comment
Sean

Aug 19, 2016 at 7:24 pm

I have the opposite problem. I am very realistic about the distances I hit each club. I have a tendency to over club, where in many cases it is much better to be short than long. Today, for example, I did it three times and it cost me five strokes.

Reply Report comment
Jim H

Aug 19, 2016 at 7:10 pm

I’ve played this great game for better than 50 years. Getting older and a health issue requiring surgery brought about my sudden inability to find the sweet spot on my Mizuno blades. So I shifted to a set of Game-Improvement Titleist AP1 irons. But even sadder, I found that my 150-yard club was no longer my trusted 7-iron, but a well-struck, firm 6-iron. Then I bought a set of Game Golf tags for my clubs and was shocked at what I was finding. My perceived distances, the ones I have relied on for over 20 years, were severely inflated. According to Game Golf, my drives average 218, instead of the 240 I was certain was my current average. Yes, I still clock one every once in awhile (273 two weeks ago, 279 last season) but I routinely realize I’m an old goat hitting 220-yard drives with a 83 MPH driver swing speed. I still play from the blues as I usually play with younger players, and have a short game that still allows me to score well. But I now hit 6-iron and sometimes even a 5-iron from 150. Instead of the sweet spot, I’m also hitting the club off the toe routinely, something I’ve never done before, and losing distance because of it. But I’m being honest with myself, and now hitting clubs that will get me there, regardless of the number on the bottom.

Reply Report comment
- kolfpro
  
  Aug 20, 2016 at 2:04 am
  
  Nothing wrong with that! Sometimes we forget the game is about getting the ball in the hole with the least amount of strokes. You don’t put what club you hit on the scorecard. BTW, you could gain distance if you went to a lighter shaft.
  
  Reply Report comment
- flint nunnelly
  
  Sep 7, 2016 at 9:07 pm
  
  an 83 mph swing speed giving you 220 yard drives means you play on concrete. your carry isnt over 190 unless you live in colorado or something. I dont mean to be an ass but math doesent lie. neither do the launch moniters. to achieve 216 carry with my 95 mph swing, i had to grease the clubhead slightly.
  
  Reply Report comment
Philip

Aug 19, 2016 at 3:10 pm

So to recap – know your yardages based on average real course results … however, the group that needs to read this article will likely be the only group who does not, or reads it and assume it applies to everyone but themselves – then again, a lot of us do not live the dream so golf happens to be one of those areas one can indulge in fantasy. So why are you trying to take away people’s happiness :o) ???? They are not hurting anyone … let them dream!

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ben

Aug 19, 2016 at 2:24 pm

so i’m a 4.0 index, and everytime i’ve hit drivers or irons indoors on launch monitors, i’ve found those #s to be inflated. perhaps its b/c my home course is somewhat windy with inconsistent roll, but i find the launch monitors to be inflating, but that’s just me. that may because i swing more freely.

for those of us that do swing 100+ mph w/ the driver (according to my launch monitor stats im in the 102-104 range, i hit a good drive downwind 285 and a good one into the wind about 260), how does this apply? i’ve been using the golfshot app to track fairways (and missing left vs right), greens, putts etc as well as for GPS w/ its programmed club recommendations, but as a digital data manager, i’m always thinking of more ways to improve my game.

Reply Report comment
- Carl
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 6:03 pm
  
  Ben, Wind is always going to make a difference that you will never get on a launch monitor. I think you need to look at your “carry” distance and not your overall distance which would include carry and roll. If you try and do this on the course you would need to know where the ball hits the fairway not where it ends up. Hope this helps.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Jack
    
    Aug 29, 2016 at 2:46 am
    
    Well you can always adjust the wind factor. But it’s not like when you are out on the real course you can measure the mph of the wind.
    
    Reply Report comment
kolfpro

Aug 19, 2016 at 12:21 pm

The ego is the main thing that keeps male golfers from improving. Most make the mistake thinking golf is a distance game. Unfortunately for most this will never change.

Reply Report comment
Egor

Aug 19, 2016 at 12:05 pm

My opinion – radar is one thing, real course experience is another. When I’m on radar/trackman I swing for the fences knowing there is no penalty for a wild shot. That’s where I think on-course game recorders like Arccos and GameGolf are so useful because they track real situation distances and give you more information about your game than you’d ever care to have.

I started using Arccos in October 2015 as a 13.5hdcp. I’ve logged >50 rounds- 18 and 9s – in Arccos since then and the information provided as well as some practice helped me reduce my hdcp to 11.2.

Arccos gives me a “smart distance” and “smart range” on all my clubs – D = 220-254, 8i = 138-153. What helped the most was the Handicap breakdown which shows me that my driving and approach need work while my chipping (inside 50yds), sand, and putting are good or where they should be.

I know it sounds like a sales pitch – I have no relationship with Arccos other than a customer service issue that they resolved 150% and even sent a strip of CR2032 batteries.

Reply Report comment
- kolfpro
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 12:30 pm
  
  I agree! This why I think range practice or indoor practice bays don’t give you your course distance. After you warm up with 20 or 30 ball your confidence, range of motion etc. has improved. Ultimately you want to bring this confidence to the course.
  
  Reply Report comment
Young golfer

Aug 19, 2016 at 11:54 am

I am tired of these articles catering to OLD men. I get it, golf is mostly played by OLD men but as someone who just turned 30, I PROMISE you I carry my driver well over 200 yards. Mishits probably carry 225 and good shots carry as much as 255. And I play with guys my age all the time that are LONGER off the tee than me as I don’t consider myself long.

With that said and I play a lot of single golf too and get paired up with guys in their 50s and yes by the end of the round, I feel LONG off the tee. And I can definitely see that they think they hit it farther than they really do.

My point is, this article needs a disclaimer : “if your older, you might not hit it as far as you think and could shave 5 strokes by being realistic about your yardages”

Reply Report comment
- kolfpro
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 12:47 pm
  
  I have seen many under 30 golfers with the same problem but I do agree it is more of an older than 30 problem. Slow swing speed can be from bad mechanics, flexibility, reflex, nervousness, tension or many other things that could span across many age groups. I would take the title of the article personally. If it doesn’t fit you then move on to the next article.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Nath
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 1:00 pm
  
  Yea, those 80% of golfers targeted in this article are having their afternnon nap, they not like s m and sizzle who are here day and night
  
  Reply Report comment
Tom

Aug 19, 2016 at 11:36 am

The second to last paragraph of this article is either purposefully wrong or someone made a mistake with the data. You say, “With optimal launch and spin rates, a drive hit with a 95-mph swing will carry almost 200 yards,” but facts don’t agree with this. Optimal launch conditions at 95-mph club head speed are 142.5 ball speed (based on a 1.5 smash factor), 2,772 RPM of backspin (from Trackman website assuming zero degree angle of attack), and 13.6 degrees launch angle (again from Trackman website assuming zero degree angle of attack). Entering those values in the Flightscope Trajectory Optimizer gives a carry of 238.4 yards, definitely better than “almost 200 yards.”

Reply Report comment
- Mat
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 5:40 pm
  
  Pffft. Facts. So truthy.
  
  I mean, why be honest about it. It’s just a wee article asking golfers to be honest with themselves…
  
  Reply Report comment
- Justin
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 6:18 pm
  
  I was thinking the same thing myself…. if a “perfect” 95 MPH swing doesn’t even get you 200 yards of carry, then we are all doomed. There is no reason that a man from teens to even 60s (that isn’t physically limited) should be able to carry the ball at least 200 yards. While most people assume they just don’t have the strength required to hit the ball further, it’s really swing mechanics that play the biggest role in distance. If you are coming over the top with an outside to in swing path and hit the ball with an open face… sure, that shot is playable but you are losing tons of yardage that is eaten up by the shape and spin of the slice. I’ve said it time and again, and while I don’t have cold hard facts, I would bet at least 75% of golfers suffer from coming over the top at least slightly and most don’t even realize it. If you picture the back swing being mostly vertical and the downswing being mostly horizontal, you should have the right frame of mind to make a proper swing. I believe most people think of the downswing with more of a vertical element and that’s the exact wrong thing to concentrate on. In fact, the perfect downswing simply lets the hands drop into position while horizontal rotation does most of the work. A golf swing is a full body effort and most people focus way too much on the hands for full swing shots.
  
  Reply Report comment
- John
  
  Aug 19, 2016 at 9:35 pm
  
  Yes, I was curious about that myself, mostly because that IS my ss with a driver: 95mph. I figure my carry average is around 220, which, more or less, matches your optimal data. That’s not ego inflated bs, if anything I am the opposite. I hit my 7 iron, for instance, 140-145. So, I am thinking maybe it was supposed to read 85mph?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Jack
    
    Aug 29, 2016 at 2:52 am
    
    Carry average of 220 is actually very good. Factor in roll your drives are averaging near 250 and for most amateurs that is more than enough.
    
    Reply Report comment

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

20 hours ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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Vincenzi: The 6 biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters

Published

23 hours ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.

Scheffler In a League of His Own

In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.

For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.

The Future is Now

Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.

With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Nostalgia Wins

I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.

Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.

The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.

Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.

Bryson Moves the Needle

Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.

It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.

Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.

LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed

Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.

The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.

This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.

Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.

Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.

To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.

With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.

Rory’s Struggles Continues

Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.

I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.

McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.

Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.

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Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters

Published

7 days ago

Apr 9, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.

RELATED: Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.

Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.

Placement Bets:

Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):

I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.

Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):

Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.

In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).

Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.

Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.

Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.

Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):

The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.

This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.

Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.

Top Nationalities:

Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):

I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.

I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.

This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):

While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.

He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.

Tournament Head-to-Heads:

Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa

JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).

Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.

Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark

I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.

Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.

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