Opinion & Analysis
The Statistical Differences Between a Scratch Golfer and PGA Tour Player
You might ask: How would I know the differences between a scratch golfer and a PGA Tour player? Well, it is my full-time job to know these type of things about golf. I have been studying the game from a statistical standpoint for 27 years. I created the Strokes Gained analysis website, ShotByShot.com, and work with PGA Tour members to extract clear answers from the Tour’s overwhelming 653 ShotLink stats.
My experience tells me that there is no such thing as an average game, no matter the handicap level. We’re all snowflakes and find our own unique way to shoot our number. With that said, ShotByShot.com’s 260,000+ round database enables us to create a composite sketch of the average golfer at each level. One of the beauties of our averages is that they are smooth across all five major facets so that every individual golfer’s strengths and weaknesses — and we all have them — stand out clearly by comparison.
The Data Used for this Study
- Mr. Scratch: I averaged the 8,360 rounds in our database that match the zero handicap criteria. In other words, the rounds when Mr. Scratch actually played to his 0 handicap.
- PGA Tour: The average of the 14,557 ShotLink rounds recorded in the 2015 season.
The Math
The USGA’s Course and Slope rating system does a sophisticated job of evaluating the relative difficulty of our golf courses. I joined my local course rating committee shortly after the new “Slope” system was added. My specific goal was to gain an understanding of how the system works so that I could effectively apply it in my analysis program.
For the purposes of this article, the Course Rating reflects the relative course par for the scratch golfer. The chart below tells us that the PGA Tour scoring average is 2.25 strokes better than Mr. Scratch. Further, Tour players are playing courses that are 3.2 strokes more difficult. The net result is a 5.45-shot difference between Tour players and Mr. Scratch, but let’s just call it 5.5.
Driving
The chart above shows us that the biggest piece of the 5.5-shot pie falls into the Driving category, or Distance, which makes sense to me. To play the game for a living, one must be able to hit it straight and far. Even Zach Johnson, with whom I have had the great pleasure of working with for five years, is often considered a short hitter. I contend that he is simply more intelligent and recognizes the true value of accuracy. Zach is averaging 281 yards this year, only seven off of the Tour average. Short? Not by my standards.
The chart below indicates that the driving distance gap between the Tour and Mr. Scratch is 33 yards. The average approach shot distance on the PGA Tour is 175 yards. Adding the 33 yards to all 14 driving holes puts Mr. Scratch’s average approach distance at just over 205 yards. The Strokes Gained value of this added distance is 2.52 strokes (0.18 per attempt x 14 driving holes = 2.52).
Accuracy and Errors Per Round
Mr. Scratch appears slightly better than the Tour in accuracy and errors per round. With added distance inevitably comes some reduced accuracy and more errors. I believe this slight edge would more than disappear if Mr. Scratch were using the Tour’s big-boy tees.
*Driving errors = Balls hit out of play, penalties, or shots requiring an advancement to return to normal play.
Approach Shots
As you can see by the chart below, Mr. Scratch is slightly less accurate from the distances that account for 80 percent of the Tour approach attempts. I estimate that Mr. Scratch’s reduced accuracy would account for at least two fewer GIR’s per round, at a cost of 1.5 strokes. It is interesting to note that Mr. Scratch incurs an approach penalty with the same frequency as the Tour average (1 in every 5 rounds).
Short Game
Mr. Scratch leaves his successful short game shots 1 foot farther from the hole. This difference in the range of 7-10 feet is worth 0.08 Strokes Gained. When multiplied by seven short game shots per round it’s 0.56 strokes, but we’ll call it half a stroke.
I am ignoring the minor difference in errors (shots that miss the green). My theory is that Mr. Scratch attains his excellent scoring level through meticulous short game consistency. The Tour players are so good that they try to get even highest-risk shots close to the hole, confident that if they miss the green they will save the next — which they do 75 percent of the time. In 2015, only 25 percent of the short game shots that missed the green took more than three strokes to finally hole out.
Putting
As you can see from the chart below, Mr. Scratch is slightly less proficient in the ranges that account for the vast majority of 1-Putt opportunities on Tour. Mr. Scratch also 3-Putts 38 percent more frequently than the Tour average. The Strokes Gained impact of these differences over 18 holes would be 0.9 strokes — let’s call it 1 stroke.
Conclusion
Bottom line, there is a measurable 5.5 stroke difference between Mr. Scratch and PGA Tour players. I have obviously not factored in the immeasurable effect of the added pressure and stress of teeing it up in a Tour event. Anyone who has participated in a PGA Tour Pro-Am will attest to the electric atmosphere and amplified pressure that comes with the experience.
If you want to try to get on the PGA Tour, your handicap needs to be a solid +3. If you want to support a family playing on tour, your handicap should be +5. Much easier said than done, however.
- LIKE1917
- LEGIT403
- WOW195
- LOL69
- IDHT38
- FLOP38
- OB35
- SHANK153
19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
- LIKE19
- LEGIT3
- WOW1
- LOL0
- IDHT1
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK1
The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.
Scheffler In a League of His Own
In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.
For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.
The Future is Now
Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.
With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Nostalgia Wins
I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.
Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.
The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.
Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.
Bryson Moves the Needle
Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.
It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.
Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.
LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed
Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.
The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.
This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.
Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.
Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.
To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.
With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.
Rory’s Struggles Continues
Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.
I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.
McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.
Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.
- LIKE49
- LEGIT9
- WOW4
- LOL1
- IDHT2
- FLOP2
- OB2
- SHANK7
We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
- LIKE9
- LEGIT5
- WOW3
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK3
Dave Portnoy places monstrous outright bet for the 2024 Masters
John Daly stuns fans into silence with brutal opening tee shot on PGA Tour Champions
Things got heated at the Houston Open between Tony Finau and Alejandro Tosti. Here’s why
Tiger Woods arrives at 2024 Masters equipped with a putter that may surprise you
Scottie Scheffler WITB 2024 (March)
Photos from the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Report: Tiger Woods has ‘eliminated sex’ in preparation for the 2024 Masters
Joaquin Niemann names 3 PGA Tour events he’d love to play each year ‘in a perfect world’
Spotted: Bettinardi irons at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
‘Seems suspect’ – PGA Tour pro hits out at decision to hand Adam Scott and Webb Simpson Bay Hill sponsor exemptions
Max Homa WITB 2024 (April)
Max Homa what’s in the bag accurate as of the Masters. Driver: Titleist TSR3 (9 degrees, D1 SureFit setting) Shaft:...
Bryson DeChambeau WITB 2024 (April)
Driver: Krank Formula Fire Pro (6 degrees) Shaft: Project X HZRDUS T1100 75g 6.5 Mini driver: TaylorMade BRNR Mini Driver...
Scottie Scheffler’s winning WITB: 2024 Masters
Driver: TaylorMade Qi10 (8 degrees @8.25) Buy here. Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Black 7 X (45 inches) 3-wood: TaylorMade Qi10 (15 degrees) Buy...
WITB Time Machine: Danny Willett’s winning WITB, 2016 Masters
Driver: Callaway XR 16 (9 degrees) Shaft: Mitsubishi Rayon Diamana W-Series 60 X Length: 45.5 inches 3-wood: Callaway XR 16 (15 degrees) Shaft: Mitsubishi...
-
19th Hole6 days agoDave Portnoy places monstrous outright bet for the 2024 Masters
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoThings got heated at the Houston Open between Tony Finau and Alejandro Tosti. Here’s why
-
19th Hole7 days agoTiger Woods arrives at 2024 Masters equipped with a putter that may surprise you
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoReport: Tiger Woods has ‘eliminated sex’ in preparation for the 2024 Masters
-
19th Hole1 day agoTwo star names reportedly blanked Jon Rahm all week at the Masters
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoAddiction, spinal fusion, and scam artists – Everything Anthony Kim revealed in candid interview with David Feherty
-
19th Hole2 weeks agoAnthony Kim says doctors told him that he ‘may not have much time left’ ahead of LIV return
-
19th Hole1 week agoBrooks Koepka and Sergio Garcia make significant equipment changes as 2024 Masters looms
Pingback: What is a scratch golfer - cleek & JIGGER
Pingback: Golf Handicap Guide (2021)
Pingback: Golf Handicap Guide (2021)
William
Aug 10, 2018 at 12:23 pm
I would think Scratch players mostly play the same course or just a few courses. They have to be able to record the scores for their numbers. That means they are playing the same course all the time. Familiarity with greens and local knowledge are big in their scoring. . I think this certainly Skews the numbers.
William mcdonald
Dec 4, 2018 at 5:19 pm
I played a club event n Greg Norman was a competitor all players were amateurs I’m a 4.6 index Norman played at scratch his explanation was pros play at scratch seems ridiculous Is Norman correct
TONEY P
Jul 30, 2018 at 4:26 pm
Why wouldn’t a tour average be be closer to par?
Randolph Dewolf
Jul 31, 2016 at 6:17 pm
___123___The Statistical Differences Between a Scratch Golfer and PGA Tour Player | GolfWRX___123___
Richard Bance
Jul 18, 2016 at 1:26 am
It is pretty obvious. A scratch player could not make it as a PGA Tour Pro. They would need to be off about +5 or better to have a chance…..I am agreeing with the article…
Uno
Jul 20, 2016 at 3:05 am
Ian Poulter declared himself a Pro with a regular handicap of 4 and that’s not +4, just 4 and off he went
Steven hutchins
Jan 3, 2017 at 1:40 pm
Anyone can claim Pro, even the PGA the test is +11 over 2 rounds
Grizz01
Jul 10, 2016 at 10:06 pm
I really wish people like the author here would quit taking stats and force facts from them. What is the difference between a scratch golfer and tour player? One guys works a job 40-50 hours a week and tries to squeeze in his golf game, the other does not. One guy has the absolute best of equipment, prototypes, coaches both swing and mental, the other does not. One guy watches his ball sail over the green and he has got to play it, which the other guy has a crowd to stop the ball or some kind of temporary structure to get a free drop from. As to distance, one guy gets rolled fairways which give 10-20 more yards, the other guy does not. One guy gets to play on a course that is brought to be in absolute perfect conditions. The other guy might get lucky and a play that day they cut all the fairways and greens. Oh lets not get into the perfect traps.
So, let’s swish that around with all those other numbers.
mc
Jul 15, 2016 at 8:14 pm
Did you see the MASSIVE CROWD of people helping to look for Stricker’s ball in the rough today at The Open? And they only found the 2nd one, not the first! If I had them people, I would shoot 2 or 3 strokes better every round
KK
Jul 20, 2016 at 6:57 pm
How well do ams do at pro-ams? Must be the full-time jobs holding them back. Pros in golf are pros because of the same reasons LeBron James and JJ Watt are pros: talent and dedication. Circumstances have nothing to do with it.
Andrew Cooper
Jul 10, 2016 at 3:50 am
Interested to know where the 255 yard average for the scratch player came from? I’d have put that more like 265-270 yards.
satch_boogie
Jul 11, 2016 at 1:24 pm
That would be interesting. Could be course length – if you’re playing the back tees you have a longer distance to the landing area than the forward tees have. So the guy on the forward tees might hit it shorter sometimes to keep it in the landing area.
Peter
Jul 11, 2016 at 1:28 pm
Good question Andrew. We do not capture driving distance in ShotByShot.com for several good reasons. I turned to an expert in the field of high end amateur golf. He has worked with top young amateurs for 25 years and seen many of them try and some succeed at making it on the big tour. I too thought that the average distance should be higher but let’s remember we are talking about a broad average.
Dave
Jul 9, 2016 at 10:55 pm
God guys it’s a number in a box. Do you realize that only 1/2 of 1 percent of all the golfers in the world are below a 10 hcp. And scratch is good dam good.
Nofiu Akano
Jul 9, 2016 at 8:13 pm
Beautiful article. I love it
Paul
Jul 9, 2016 at 6:29 pm
This is very interesting. This topic has been hashed and rehashed many times before. About 13 years ago there were several Top 100 teachers and touring professionals who were asked this very same question. Jim McLean said the difference is between 15-16 strokes. Larry Nelson, senior pro, said the difference is between 12-15 strokes. Anyone who thinks it’s less than 10 strokes is absolutely delusional and out of touch with reality.
michael johnson
Jul 10, 2016 at 6:21 pm
no. as the stats show: difference is 5 strokes, maybe up to eight to a very good pro.
Alex
Jun 3, 2020 at 6:09 pm
It’s absolutely 15/16. Greens at 13/14, rough that’s nasty, 7500 yard course, and the fact those guys are green light go if they want to win. It’s not even close, not even a little bit. Pro golfers are a different breed.
Ben
Oct 9, 2021 at 6:50 pm
Not all the courses play like this. It’s averaged out. They don’t play Kiawah every week.
Also the greens are absolutely pristine and this puts up averages for putts over 3 feet.
These guys are obviously talented. But it’s good promotional hype to consider them some kind of different breed. They miss a lot of putts and a scratch player would not find their short game wildly different from their own.
The article reflects exactly what I have witnessed with my own eyes while playing with mini Tour players who go on to the Tour: a 280 yard drive is way beyond what a regular player (even)scratch averages. I had to work for 2 months to add 30 yards to my drives. After that there was only the occasional pro who hit it further to the point it was noticeable. When you hit the ball 280+ yards you can play golf anywhere. When you can play the rest of the game we’ll and hit it 300+, you need to roll the dice and see if you can make it.
Bigleftygolfet
Jul 9, 2016 at 11:01 am
This is a great article!!! I wish more high handicappers would read it so they stop asking “good amateurs” why they don’t play on tour! Everytime I shoot a sub par round in the company of a high handicapper I get asked this question and I tell them I would need to be 8-10 strokes better every day! When I finished college I tried the mini’s for the summer after I graduated carried a +4 Traveling handicap made some money but quickly realized there was a massive ability gap between myself and the people that can do this potentially as a living! I shot many rounds in the 60’s that did not make top 20! And that was on relatively easier “mini” tour golf courses (more similar to what the average golfer plays just from the tips). I did have the opportunity to play in two PGA tour qualifiers on big boy courses and I was happy to shoot a couple over par not making the cut but I quickly realized that my day job would not be golf! I don’t think the average golfer realizes how freakishly good the guys in the show actually are! I took a friend who played for years on the Nike tour (now retired) to a local club and he broke the course record first time seeing the place! That is how good these guys are they shoot sub seventy rounds every time they tee it up at a local course oftentimes with a really good chance of owning the course record assuming it is not already held by a well known tour player!
Also I would argue that tour level courses setup by the PGA have a scoring rating and slope way above what GHIN allows for! I would say something more akin to 78 / 165!!! And forget about it when talking about a US Open in my prime twenty years ago I doubt I could shoot 75 on a us open course when I carried a legit +4!!!
Hats off to the author of this article it really helps one appreciate just how amazing and talented these guys are!
…Now back to my old man 3 handicap $25 weekend nassau! 🙂 This article just reminds me how bad I am at golf!
cr
Jul 9, 2016 at 4:46 pm
No need to put yourself down that much
k
Jul 9, 2016 at 7:41 pm
not putting himself down, it is clearly just a boast
j
Jul 10, 2016 at 1:39 am
Sarcasm. Ever heard of it
WP
Jul 9, 2016 at 6:20 am
Every time this topic comes up I’m reminded of the fact that Luke Donald turned pro with a tournament +3 hdcp despite the horror stories of the guys in the +6 range that felt they weren’t good enough. Complicated issue and there is no doubt the difference between scratch and tour pro is staggering but I believe once you get to +3 (consistent and travelling) you have the requisite physical skill. After that, are you mentally tough enough to handle pressure, unfamiliar courses, and the inevitable swing of down time; do you have the money to bankroll your ‘learning curve’ on mini tours, etc.
kenny
Jan 6, 2017 at 9:07 am
PLUS 3 in the UK is the equivalent of plus 5 in the USA
Ben
Oct 9, 2021 at 7:01 pm
Exactly right.
Uncle Buck
Jul 8, 2016 at 10:32 pm
Yeah, James hit that one right on the screws. Play a championship course if you ever get the opportunity, and tee your single digit handicap game up, oh, but before you do that, march back another 46 yards on each tee, THEN tee your pearl up! No range finders, just the card. I’ll be at the 19th hole waiting to hear about your alleged 4 hdcp.! I’ll also have an ice cold beverage and a bucket ‘o fries waitin’ for ya to sob into.
Jack
Jul 9, 2016 at 12:16 pm
Yeah totally. The article didn’t even take into account the tee box differences. You can be scratch even from the white tees. Tournament tees if available on your golf course are so far back most players would add a stroke a hole.
Grizz01
Jul 10, 2016 at 10:10 pm
Well, there is this thing called course rating and slope.
James
Jul 8, 2016 at 8:29 pm
I played torrey pines south off the back tees and it made me appreciate that PGA tour players are freaks.
Double Mocha Man
Jul 9, 2016 at 5:06 pm
I played Pebble Beach off the middle tees and it made me appreciate that PGA tour players are freaks.
Achillesheels
Jan 19, 2017 at 12:43 am
I played Rancho Park Par 3 off the mats and it made me appreciate that PGA tour players are freaks.
Jim
Jul 8, 2016 at 7:44 pm
Just a fact about golf, it is not just hard, it is very hard……even a 9 handicap playing a different course with 3 strangers can play to a 15 handicap and leave the course telling him/her self they will never post a low score again…golf is tough.
Rick
Jul 8, 2016 at 7:53 pm
amen to that….how many times Have you a had a good round at your home/usual course and after friends tossing their clubs in the car saying “ya, your some dam sandbagging 15, shooting a 79”, Then 2 days later playing with the men’s club shooting that same old 87 again…next day you go over and play with your cousin with his friends at their course and it is 87 again not that miracle sandbagging 79……golf on any level is hard.
Bob Pegram
Jul 8, 2016 at 7:17 pm
Playing in tournaments regularly reduces the pressure factor on the touring pros (or anybody else who plays a lot of tournaments on different courses). It also provides a lot of motivation to practice A LOT!
As somebody mentioned regarding Tom Kite, there are at least two different kinds of successful players on tour. One kind is like Kite – very consistent and very good – a golfing machine in every tournament. The other kind is very streaky. When they get hot they are almost unbeatable if they can keep it going for four rounds.
Another factor that may sound odd at first glance is what playing daily does to a golfer physiologically. It tightens up the right muscles and loosens up the right muscles. That makes hitting consistently good shots, consistent contact, distance control, etc. a lot easier. For example, when I play a lot, my loose wrists tighten up, increasing my accuracy and quality of strike. My timing is more consistent. It is easier to maximize distance (and make it consistent) on every shot due to consistently better contact, etc. A lot of short game practice makes chips, pitches, and sand shots around the green easier as well. As several people have mentioned there are few amateurs with unlimited time to play and practice.
Grizz01
Jul 10, 2016 at 10:12 pm
Yep.
Mississauga Jim
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:07 pm
I was a squash playing and teaching pro for twenty years. I’m way past my prime now, but this article is poignant. I played for money and ranking points for the national team. The difference between me and a superb club or college player was confidence and experience. Plus I hardly made errors.
So in golf with so many different courses that’s one factor. Plus I can’t relate to the gallery pressure but I can relate to having to make a cheque to eat. Guys playing on mini tours, I can relate to that. My biggest cheques were only $2,500.00. But average was only about $1,200.00. I did a lot of lessons then.
Those who say being a tour pro has so many advantages, well everyone you play against does too. You actually get super bored playing tournaments regardless of of your support system. The secret was always rest, not more of anything.
Have a kid who plays pro hockey and played a ton in the NHL. Same difference. It’s all about not making mistakes and reliability. There’s a saying in pro sports: steady wins. At a very high level.
And finally very few can handle the pressure. What I’ve seen it does to guys is heart wrenching. That’s why the drugs ( mostly coke) and alcohol. Plus the travel sucks. Hugely.
big
Jul 8, 2016 at 9:47 pm
People get super bored in other sports like squash or Pro Hockey because that’s played in the same square box, unlike golf. We don’t get bored in golf. The variety of courses and locations and climates and vegetation really keeps us entertained and on our toes.
birdy
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:01 pm
haven’t read all coments, but anyone pointed out the fact that it compares all rounds of pga to scratch players rounds that were played to scratch.
a big difference is tour players bad days are sooooo much better than a scratch’s bad day.
a 74 bad day for a tour player is still most likely even to or under the course rating, while a scratch’s 79 bad day is several shots higher than course rating.
take all these shots and now multiply them over 4 consecutive days, and pga guys are 25-40 shots better than mr. scratch if paired up over 4 rounds in pga event.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 4:32 pm
That’s it. It’s a lot more a matter of the worst rounds than the best rounds.
Check out how few bogeys the top half or two-thirds of tour players make on average, and it really gets eye-opening at that point.
Paul
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:49 pm
I heard a while back that Jim walker set a tournament at his home course prior to the Presidents cup and played as a +9. I play with + 4 and +5 once in a while. They have both said they are 3 solid strokes away from making money. My friend the +5 entered an amateur tournament where Graham Delete was also playing, he was a +7 at the time. By the way my friend the +5 was also ranked 50th in the World Ameteur rankings a few years back.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:13 pm
I’ve seen similar comparisons, but none better than this one.
There is, of course, that little factor called telling the truth. A lot of guys who say they’re scratch and who report scratch-level scores really aren’t.
I was a plus-2 when I was playing a lot, with pro aspirations (I did play for money at a lower level, and also taught), but I have to admit chickening out with regard to the big show because I didn’t think I was solid enough mechanically to keep hitting it well for four straight days every week. It wasn’t that easy to hold it together even for the two- or three-round tournaments I was already playing. Some weeks it was gold, and I’d shoot way under par, but too often swing flaws would start magnifying as the tournament went on. Some weeks I played like a plus-5 and would shoot easy 66s and 67s, other weeks it was more like a scratch or 1-handicap, struggling for 71s and 72s, even the occasional mid-70s, which would’ve given me a lot of weekends off on tour. I did hit it pretty long, over the tour average at the time, and I had a short game I would’ve put up against anybody’s. But I just thought the full swing needed some evolution. Maybe I was wrong. Maybe it was a matter of getting scared off by inconsistency when that’s the nature of the game. I still think maybe I was too perfectionistic — maybe should’ve tried it anyway, since players do work things out and have to continue to work things out when they’re out there. Overthinking, maybe.
Regardless, I can vouch for the fact that even a true scratch player is going to have to get better if he wants to play for a living. It’s not impossible with the right kinds of improvements and training, but I’m saying, you have to be aware of the true standard and at least get into that ballpark. And that’s for the people who are _actually_ scratch players, not the ones who think they’re scratch because they broke 70 once or twice and shoot some 72s and 73s here and there. (You know the guys — the ones who always shoot 79 when they’re playing with you.)
Bigleftygolfer
Jul 9, 2016 at 11:28 am
Well said, I completely agree with your post I had a similar life story and what makes me sleep better is the thought of I completely committed myself and was not good enough. I can live with that and i would not look at your story as being scared I would look at it as true introspection realizing there was a big gap with your ability to guarantee a living! This is nothing to be ashamed of! I would be lying if I did not dream about the tour everytime I shoot a sub 70 round but usually by the time I post the score and see all of the 75+ rounds in my GHIN I quickly get a dose of reality and instead have a beer at the bar and look forward to my office job come Monday morning!
Also to support your decision my buddy who made money and a living before retiring playing on the NIKE tour use to tell me if you can’t have a real chance of owning the course record at every local club that you play then odds are you wont make a penny on tour and that includes the nike (now web.com) tours! As I stated in another post this guy broke the record at my local club first time he saw it years after he stopped playing competitively and he never earned a full time PGA tour card he was just a full time A-3 that is how good these guys are! Anybody not believing that the PGA tour guys are ten strokes better than scratch golfers are truly delusional and just trying to support a dream that they can one day play on tour.I would assume that most of these guys denying the greatness of a PGA tour pro can’t even beat their local club pro with regularity.
TB
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:55 pm
One key distinction to make is the tour player stats are always calculated at tournaments whereas the scratch golfer typically playing home course (in general) isn’t playing tournament golf…he/she is not stepping on the tee thinking “If i hit two out of bounds off the tee, I still gotta finish the hole”…so BIG difference between tournament golf and playing home course with your buddies scratch golf. That’s why so many golfers at my home course with vanity handicaps shoot their WAD in the club championship and struggle to break 80 putting them all out, taking all penalties correctly, etc. REALLY good article but I concur with several other comments, 5 stroke difference is not really close…I have a hand full of friends who were all-american Div 1 golfers who never could get their tour card…and they’re DAMN good.
Pingback: Rooster
snowman
Jul 8, 2016 at 12:32 pm
I’d love to see this analysis for scratch vs 5 hdcp, 10, 15 hdcp.
Justin
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:08 pm
I’d bet the margin between “scratch” and tour is much wider than scratch and 5. In fact, I would even imagine the margin between scratch and +2 is wider than scratch and 5.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:34 pm
That’s in line with the idea of standard deviations, and I’d say you’re right.
snowman
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:37 pm
agree. the Tour Pros are playing a different game.
Greg Guyotte
Jul 8, 2016 at 12:24 pm
Let’s not forget a few other advantages pga tour pros have.
1) Great caddies. Vs. No caddy. Huge advantage getting help reading every putt, with research that already tells you which way is breaking and roughly how much. Information advantage.
2) near ideal conditions. You won’t find yourself in an unraked bunker, or inconsistent conditions hole to hole.
3) worst misses often not penalized. The number of free drops tour pros get due to grandstands, tv towers, cables, etc is not insignificant. Not to mention galleries which keep shots in play.
4) unlimited time to play and practice,
5) best in the world coaching
6) all the time you need to make your body the best it can be
7) equipment companies that put you in the best stuff and have you perfectly fit.
I agree with most of the comments, PGA tour pros are amazing. However, i think living the life of a tour pro clearly makes you even better than you otherwise would be.
Justin
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:05 pm
I’m really glad you brought this up, because it’s all true.
I’m a +2 and a number of scores that are included in my calculation are from courses that I have played only once. I enjoy traveling and playing different courses, but it somewhat penalizes what my actual handicap could be, as I’m playing many of these courses “blind.” If I had multiple practice rounds, a yardage book, and a good caddie, I’d have a decided advantage. Now, I can still shoot under par on courses I play for the first time, but this usually comes from taking the conservative route and playing a course that doesn’t have very many blind shots.
On that same token, my best round at my home course is 8-under, and my course handicap for that course is +4 (rating 73.1, slope 133). I know all the little ins and outs like the back of my hand and know the breaks on every green. As someone mentioned earlier, people who play the majority of their rounds at their home course will have handicaps that are skewed a little lower than they should be. You have to have a game that travels in order to really know your true handicap.
However, what people don’t think about is the discrepancy regarding the 2 situations I just mentioned. Scratch players are often penalized vs tour pros when it comes to playing new courses, but they also gain points if they have a home course they play consistently. Golfers who play a good mix of their home courses and other courses probably play to a handicap very similar to what their calculated number shows, while those that always play new courses are probably a little better than what is stated on the card.
I’m used to thinking in terms of “me” and how I relate to a tour pro and I can tell you for a fact the only difference is time and commitment. I know I could make it, but how “long” it takes to make it would be the question. Most will never have the chance to even try because of the strain it would put on their families and themselves financially. Q-school is meant to be expensive to ward away people who aren’t 100% serious about the commitment and I think that’s a good thing. Time and commitment lead to the overall biggest difference…. consistency.
I have no doubts I’d be right up there with the longest hitters on tour, and I definitely putt better on faster greens and play better overall on courses that are well manicured. My issue is still and will always seem to be consistency off the tee. One day I’m striping it, the next I’m fighting a hook, and the next I’m blocking every other tee shot out to the right. I have played at least 5 rounds this year where I’ve racked up 5 or more penalty strokes as a result of tee shots only and still broke 75. It’s frustrating, but it’s the game I’ll always have unless I commit time to practice. Sometimes we have to commit more time to our families and jobs and I think in the long run that’s most important. And on that note, I commend these tour players (especially those on web.com and mini tours) for living this life. Not all of them enjoy the security that the top guys do.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:38 pm
Pretty much what happened with me. I hear ya. (See reply in the Facebook-format questions above to Jim Kruppa, re things that tend to get better with experience and time, versus the true differentiators.)
Ben
Oct 9, 2021 at 7:18 pm
The Tour and golf in general is:
1. Promotional. They have to hype it up.
2.Gaslighting. People will constantly tell you something that your own eyes knows is not true. A +5 handicap can’t beat any Tour pro. You’re not good enough. These people have magical abilities. Oh, and don’t look at the half of the field’s scores that miss the cut.
3. You have to fake it til you make it. The powers that be will decide whether you are good enough: the media, the golf commentators. Ever noticed how golf commentary is completely condescending to a “regular” tour pro who is leading an event? He’s “hanging in there”. He’s not Phil, so he can never be in the club. Case in point: Koepka. Won majors left, right and center and STILL had his nerve questioned. He can’t get in the club.
Leon
Jul 8, 2016 at 10:47 am
Good work on the statistics and analysis. But the difference between a scratch player and a tour guy is not only 5 strokes, but more like +10.
Just like all the quality comments, if you put the “traveling (unfamiliarity), insane green speed, tough pin locations, stink height of rough, total distance (7200-7400 vs 6600-6800), tens of thousands people watching and live TV broadcast, pressure from both inside and outside (such as sucker media), and some many other factors that a scratch player would not be exposed to during his normal condition. A scratch player will have little chance to break 80 in a PGA or even Web.com tournament, while the pros shot their 60s.
Just as the Fedex ad says “These people are good”. They are not only good, they are unbelievably amazing.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:44 pm
Okay, but how meaningful is that kind of comparison (as in, what a local scratch player would shoot _today_ if thrown into the crucible on an unfamiliar course)?
Seems to me the more meaningful comparison has to do with what the real differences are in the quality of game — what level of ballstriking it takes, how good the short game has to be, how good bogey avoidance is, etc., once the amateur is over the shock of spectators, pressure, unfamiliarity, etc.
Andrew Cooper
Jul 8, 2016 at 6:11 am
The 255 yard driving distance for the scratch player is shorter than I would have thought? With tour average clubhead speed around 112mph, a Zach Johnson about 108-110, I’d say most scratch players would easily fall in the 105-110 range. So at 2-3 yards per mph, how do we get a 33 yard difference? Faster fairway conditions?
Mongo McMichael
Jul 8, 2016 at 12:56 pm
I think you’re on to something with the fairway conditions. They always seem to shave them down for tour events.
Justin
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:16 pm
I would imagine that data concerning statistics for scratch golfers (outside of raw score) is probably not very reliable. How many people keep track of driving distance? How many people find they hit the ball different distances on the course vs the launch monitor? We also tend to forget that these driving distances include holes where certain players hit less than driver and others hit driver.
Think of this as an example…
So far this year, Dustin Johnson is averaging 312.5 yards off the tee. Yet, he routinely hits drivers that carry 320 to 330 yards in the air. If the tour only calculated driving distance on tee shots hit with drivers, the margin between tour pros and scratch would be EVEN WIDER! The tour average would be much closer to 300 yards.
Mongo McMichael
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:42 pm
Well stated. That’s another excellent point.
Andrew Cooper
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:14 pm
Not sure about that. Here is Zach Johnson for example in 2016-average distance 281.5 yards, average ch speed 106.5 (fastest 109, slowest 103) from over 50 measured tee shots. Ok a lot of centred hits with good launch conditions, but still that’s a long average off a modest clubhead speed.
Jack
Jul 9, 2016 at 12:25 pm
He also hits it on the sweetspot most of the time.
And to respond to the higher level post, scratch golfers are not required to play from the tips are they?
OFCCLefty
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:24 pm
You’re spot on with the fairways. I’ve played a few tour venues a week or so before events and the fairways are like concrete. I typically drive it around 285-295 and on the firm and fast fairways I averaged north of 315 (when hitting driver). The ball just runs so much. I agree that the rough is really penal, but if you keep it in the fairway, a 7400 yd tour course plays closer to a 6800 yd public course
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:48 pm
Faster fairways matter, but it’s also true that clubhead speed isn’t all there is to long hitting. The better player’s angle of approach is almost always shallower and more efficient, and more from the inside relative to body lines, both of those factors being related, of course (if you get even fractionally outside the right inside path approaching the ball, you’re going to be steeper than you should be). And contact is generally more consistently on the right spot on the clubface. Those factors at any given speed make a significant difference.
KK
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:43 am
Scratch golfers average 255 off the tee? That’s LPGA range and LPGA players are probably better in every other category. Levels below PGA pros.
Justin
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:36 pm
Remember that scratch golfers should be playing the back tees at any course, which probably averages around 7,000 yards for a par 72. On the LPGA Website, it lists the average courses played being between 6,200 and 6,600 yards. So, in reality, the LPGA pros are left with closer approach shots on average, which would definitely boost stats when compared with a longer approach.
It would be interesting to find out how many scratch golfers are playing the correct tees and also playing courses that are long enough. Courses that are shorter are often rated lower, but for someone who drives the ball straight as a string every time would benefit more from a shorter course than they’d be hurt by the rating going down.
Jack
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:32 am
I think visually, when you watch Mark Crossfield play against Euro tour pros, you can see the difference between scratch (I think he is probably a +1 to scratch golfer even though his short game stinks right now). Tour players have an edge in terms of distance, accuracy, short game, and even putting. So tough to be a tour player. You have to excel in all aspects. Driving 280 average is not enough. 300 is better. 320 is not necessary, since most guys who lead the field in distance are not even the leaders. It takes a serious dedication to fitness and training to reach those levels. Gone are the days when players could survive on talent and a beer gut.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:50 pm
A 280 average is in fact enough, if you’re good enough in other ways.
And when exactly were the days “when players could survive on talent and a beer gut”?
Jack
Jul 9, 2016 at 12:30 pm
I think from the 80’s to 2000’s. Tiger Woods pretty much changed golf fitness.
I think 280 is enough, but it makes it harder overall as regularly it seems it’s the guys averaging 300 winning. The approach shots are just that much closer in a game of a few stroke differences. Even Spieth who doesn’t consider himself long averages 296.
Grizz01
Jul 10, 2016 at 10:14 pm
Yes, he caused the PGA Tour to start requiring to pee in a cup.
kenny
Jan 6, 2017 at 9:15 am
Amazing that a golfer can change golf fitness 7 years before his first pro event..
Locode
Jul 18, 2016 at 12:33 pm
Stadler x2, Lietzke, Daly, Casper, Trevino, Knost, Mayfair, Herron, Petterson, Fat Jack, Bob Murphy, Maltbie, Barr, Blackmar, Zoeller… Just a small example of current and past players who survive(d) on talent and a beer belly.
Jim
Jul 8, 2016 at 12:58 am
Pretty much right i played on a european tour setup off same tees as the tour pros ,having walked and scored as marshall for the top pros i saw the reality between them and us.my best score is a 66 and imconsidered long at my club.
They hit it 3 clubs longer in drives so im hitting a 5 iron in when they were hitting 8 irons.
They get it up and down from anywhere.
Their long putting is superb.
This was my personal experience and this does not factor in pressure which is another 5/6 shots more for amateurs.
Felix
Jul 7, 2016 at 7:46 pm
Great article but tough to compare scratch golfers who more than likely have another full time occupation to the guys who have everything at their disposal and only have to worry about getting better.
Dave
Jul 7, 2016 at 6:45 pm
Most of the guys I know that are scratch, aren’t scratch every course they go to. Surround those same scratch players with a few thousand people lining the fairway and dead silence when they’re putting and see what happens to their scores.
K dawg
Jul 7, 2016 at 6:04 pm
Being a scratch player, I think this is pretty spot on if not a little generous to the scratch player. As soon as you add pressure most scratch players I play against go to water and barely break 80. Especially of the back tees.
I would add though, I am sure I would play a few shots better per round if I played full time, played perfect conditions, had a full time caddy and a coach on call and had my equipment made by the tour van.
TCJ
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:52 pm
Just the lost balls alone would account for a few strokes!
Not quite
Jul 7, 2016 at 5:37 pm
As someone who carried a +3 to +4 for a few years, I think you’re still a ways off. Played with guys that couldn’t play nationwide with a +6 or 7 and my college coach who won on Hogan/Nationwide tour and played 9-10 US Opens, but couldn’t make it on tour with an UNREAL short game. These tour guys are serious good. The difference between Pro and Scratch is much larger than Scratch and a 5 handicap. Even if numbers-wise its only 5-6 shots, the quality of golf is in a completely different league. I would think the difference between a +3 and Pro on a Tour course is more than 5 a round.
Justin
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:43 pm
The biggest difference this article does not discuss is the mental side of things. Some guys just aren’t built for the tour and can’t hack it. If you play with them in a relaxed situation, they play like a superhero, but get them under the bright lights and things change. They are not bad golfers or bad people, it just takes a special type of mental talent to compete at the highest level.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:54 pm
If you played with guys who were plus-6 or plus-7 and couldn’t play on the Nationwide, they either weren’t actually at that level (all home-course, no competitive play, whatever) or they had some kind of competitive block going on. Anybody who’s at that level for real, on competitive golf courses, has got a game good enough to play for a living. The question is whether they have a head good enough to play for a living.
mhendon
Jul 7, 2016 at 5:19 pm
I didn’t need this article to confirm the average PGA tour player is much better than a scratch golfer. I already knew that but I do find it hard to believe the avg scratch golfer only averages 255 of the tee. I’m much longer than that and play with guys all the time on this Am tour I’m a member of that hit it past me.
us
Jul 7, 2016 at 5:03 pm
When Scratch player plays there are no spotters on the course to look for errant shots, and he’s not playing for millions of dollars. This study means nothing. But it has to be done.
Eddie
Jul 7, 2016 at 5:19 pm
You really think the pros gain a bunch of strokes on scratch players because they have spotters on the course?
Double Mocha Man
Jul 7, 2016 at 5:59 pm
I sometimes lose 2-3 balls a round in the rough just off the fairway. Never happens to a touring pro with galleries, marshals and spotters present. So right off the bat the touring pro has two strokes on me every round.
Double Mocha Man
Jul 7, 2016 at 9:25 pm
Smizzlers… always enjoy your comments even when they make no sense. Keep an eye on that grammar there, son…
Double Mocha Man
Jul 8, 2016 at 10:57 am
You’re wrong. I’m a 3. Wanna play for smizzle bucks?
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:55 pm
Yeah, just ignore the snark and keep playing.
Adam
Jul 7, 2016 at 4:38 pm
One thing I didn’t see in the comments was the fact that the non-tour players are often not quite as strict with the rules – improper drops, gimmes, etc. It’s amazing how many people’s scores shoot up when they have to count everything, have to go back to the tee box when they lose one in the woods, etc.
I once played a practice round with guys that were going to play in a Monday qualifier for what’s now the Web.com tour. I was a 6 at the time, and my regular playing partner was a +.4. I remember thinking afterwards that the gap between me and my buddy was much smaller than the gap between him and these guys – and they weren’t even on the AAA tour yet. It’s easier said than done, but the scratch golfer just needs to drive it about 250 and in play, hit most greens and two putt, and miss in good enough spots to get up and down most of the time. Sneak in a couple of birdies to offset a couple of bogeys. Do this half the time and you’re scratch. That’s pretty much what my buddy did. The quality of the shots by the Web.com qualifiers was on a totally different level.
Rick
Jul 9, 2016 at 7:38 pm
RIGHT ON and the worst thing ever is to get in a blind draw 4 man scrabble (A<B<C<D players) and have an A player that got his 7 handicap not 100% following the rules or playing from short tees or even being selective with his postings….it is called the "REVERSE SANDBAGGER"….and it happens almost as much as the 7 playing as a 12.
Tom
Jul 7, 2016 at 3:34 pm
The Percentage Difference Between A Scratch Golfer And A PGA pro.
EagleM.
Jul 7, 2016 at 2:59 pm
-3 and -5, right?
Alex
Jul 7, 2016 at 6:26 pm
no, +3 and +5 means 3 and 5 under, respectively.
ooffa
Jul 7, 2016 at 2:32 pm
zzzzzzz
Max
Jul 7, 2016 at 2:06 pm
I read an article somewhere that said close to the same thing. It also said that for any given week on Tour the Winner was playing to the equivalent of a +10
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:57 pm
Love to see the methodology for that. A plus-10 most weeks would mean scores in the 24-to-30-under-par range, which…no.
Bigleftygolfet
Jul 9, 2016 at 11:09 am
Actually not true when you consider the scoring average and slope for a PGA tour course would be a conservative 76/77 / 155+ slope once you consider this the average winning four round score is right in line with the numbers being posted.
Matt
Jul 7, 2016 at 2:04 pm
Makes it even harder when by the math you are only suppose to shoot your handicap 24% of the time, so Tour Pros are 5.5 shots better than a scratch player 24% of the time and even better the other 76% of the time.
The math; Handicap is 10 best out of last 20 scores so 50% and then its the Average Differential of those 10 scores so 25% of the time and then you multiply by .96 so 24% of the time.
Bill Mac
Jul 8, 2016 at 12:25 am
That’s well explained, thanks Matt.
Birdieman
Jul 7, 2016 at 2:00 pm
Good info. As a +1 that tried mini toiurs years ago, distance and consistency from outside 175 were always what I felt held me back, and this confirms it.
I think it will be even more so over the next 10 years. Kids just kill the ball now. My 14 year old flies it 300. Even at my peak I hit it 285 with roll. The game is for bombers that play aggressive. Kill it. Aim for the pin. Worry about the rest later.
Eddie
Jul 7, 2016 at 5:23 pm
Spieth, Sneds, Furyk, ZJ, McDowell, Stricker all find success without killing the ball.
cgasucks
Jul 7, 2016 at 11:42 pm
If Spieth kills the ball…then DJ would nuke it…
Justin
Jul 8, 2016 at 1:47 pm
yes, that’s correct
TheCityGame
Jul 7, 2016 at 1:54 pm
It is important to note that this isn’t a PGA average against scratch golfer. This is a PGA average against the 10 best of the last 20 rounds of scratch golfers. As you said, ” the rounds when Mr. Scratch actually played to his 0 handicap.” It’s ALL the PGA rounds (good and bad) against the GOOD rounds of Mr. Scratch.
Still, people aren’t going to believe you.
This punctures the myth that OMG THESE GUYS ARE GODS!!! That they’re +8’s and +10’s.
I don’t think teeing it up under “PGA Pressure” has any effect on these guy’s scores, either. Yeah, it might for Joe Schmo teeing it up in a pro-am. These guys got there because they play well under pressure.
Interesting write-up. Thanks.
Chuck
Jul 7, 2016 at 3:22 pm
Yes, you’ve made good points that I agree with, and the one I was going to add was this:
Tour players are looking at a new course every week. They are playing out of hotel rooms and suitcases; flying week to week, and can’t just decide not to play because of a sore back or an nasty argument with a wife or because they just don’t feel like playing that day because it is too hot or too windy or nasty.
It is a phenomenally difficult task, to be on all the time and to play at that level when the schedule tells you that that is when you play. And almost never get to spend the night of a tournament in your own bed.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 3:01 pm
True, but lots of people have jobs that require physical action under difficult conditions. As for the “new course” aspect, that unfamiliarity goes away with practice rounds and repeated years, and they get yardages marked to the inch, not to mention caddies who tend to know the place.
That’s not to say they’re not skilled. It’s just that they’re not as superhuman as portrayed. They’re highly skilled humans who have developed those skills over time and experience, like anybody who’s really good at a job.
Bigleftygolfet
Jul 9, 2016 at 11:05 am
No they are superhuman at golf! I have played alongside these guys and to the casual observer one may think there are similarities between a good amateur and a tour player but take my word for it the gap is absolutely 8-10 strokes!
Steve
Jul 7, 2016 at 1:49 pm
With the time to practice like a tour player I suspect the scratch golfer’s short game would improve significantly.
Marty
Jul 7, 2016 at 1:28 pm
You need to add to your statement about being a +3 to make it on the PGA Tour. You need to be a +3 and play everywhere, not just at your home course that you know like the back of your hand.
Geo
Jul 7, 2016 at 2:02 pm
Helps to hit it where you want it to go.
stephenf
Jul 8, 2016 at 2:15 pm
yup.