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5 Dark Horse Picks for the 2016 U.S. Ryder Cup Team

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With one leg left in the majors, I wanted to examine the U.S. Ryder Cup standings, again. This time, though, I wanted to look at the players that are outside the top 15 in the U.S. Ryder Cup standings that have metrics that comply with making a quality Ryder Cup participant.

Related: The Official U.S. Ryder Cup Points List

While ballstriking has a much greater influence on Tour success than short game shots around the green, historically the best Ryder Cup players have excelled around the greens. Putting is always important in terms of winning events on Tour, but it’s nearly impossible to project putting for any player. Although there are certainly players that are significantly, statistically better on certain greens grasses than others.

Where the U.S. Team has struggled the most over the years is in the foursome (alternate shot) format. The fourball (low score) format has not been much of an issue for the U.S. Team. Each format stresses different facets of the game. So given the U.S. Team’s struggles in the foursome format, this list of players are more skilled toward that format.

Charles Howell III

CH3_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Howell fits well in the fourball format because he makes a lot of birdies and plays the par-4s, par-5s and par-3s well. However, he’s been a competent driver of the ball this year and has been pretty good from the Red Zone (175-225 yards), which will be featured at this year’s venue, Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minnesota. He tops it off with great short-game play, and this makes for a competent foursome player. Pair Howell with a good iron player, and that could make for a tough foursome team to beat.

Jimmy Walker

JW_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Walker has slumped since March, but he had a good Ryder Cup showing in 2014 and is still an excellent short-game player and good putter. He has traditionally been a much better putter and iron player. The Bogey Rate and slump concerns me, but he is a player to keep an eye out for and see if steps up his play down the stretch.

Webb Simpson

WS_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Simpson has been brilliant in virtually every part of the game, but has struggled with the transition to the non-anchored putter. That has been the main contributor to him being unable to win this year, and his high bogey rate. His putting, however, has been trending upward. Like Walker, he’s a player to watch out for to see if the putting is starting to come along. If so, he would make an excellent Ryder Cup teammate.

Kevin Streelman

KS_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Like Simpson, the only thing holding Streelman back has been his putting. His putting has trended considerably upward, however, which you can see in the chart below (the dotted line is the trend line).

KS_Strokes_Gained_Putting_2016

With better putting, Streelman becomes a more appealing fourball player, but can also drive it well, strike it well on the mid-to-long approach shots and gets up-and-down if he misses the green.

Kevin Na

KN_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Na is an unheralded player, but has the game to make for a tough Ryder Cup competitor. This season he has struggled a bit with the driver, but the counter to that in the foursome format is to stick him with a good iron player that plays well out of the rough.

Na has also typically been a much better putter than he has been this year, and could be due to hit a hot streak soon. So, the U.S. team would have a promising foursome player, as well as a player that makes a lot of birdies, which works well in the fourball format. He has also typically been an even better player on the par-5s, so like his putting, I wouldn’t be surprised if his par-5 play picks up soon as well.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Bryant

    Jul 24, 2016 at 6:19 pm

    I think that Simpson would be a complete liability to the US Squad. He has not played well in like 3 years. I would take someone like Charlie Hoffman or Bill Haas.

    • Bryant

      Jul 26, 2016 at 8:15 am

      The Americans need to grow up and play with who they paired with. Just go out and compete.

    • Marty Moose

      Jul 26, 2016 at 10:07 am

      Webb skied his 3-wood off the first tee last Ryder Cup. Not a good choice.

  2. BD57

    Jul 24, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    These comments … are a good argument for not having comments.

  3. Matt Mitchell

    Jul 24, 2016 at 12:25 pm

    Seriously!?! You are free and unrestrained to offer your opinion but this author is not granted the same freedom though he writes from a place of experience and application!?! Just baffling man! Simply astonishing that you got so butt hurt over my comment! I guess your feelings and self-congratulating opinions are all that matter!?! Good luck with the life amigo!

  4. TheInfidel

    Jul 23, 2016 at 5:12 pm

    Free tip for 2016.

    If the USA want to get beat like a drum again you need Webb and Na!

  5. Steve

    Jul 23, 2016 at 2:59 pm

    What a bad meaningless article

  6. Matthew Mitchell

    Jul 23, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    So it is just a coincidence that a player makes x number of putts within 15 feet in a given round which then contributes to the strokes gained putting statistic which is measure against all players on the same course. A coincidence is just happen stance and shows no direct intentionality or relevant skill as it relates to what is measured. A statistic is a numerical aggregate of the same occurrence, fact, outcome, etc over a given period of time. One instance may be a coincidence like the probability of you making a putt from 10 feet but these guys making a putt from 10 feet is over 40%. Why would this be a coincidence. I seriously don’t think you really know what that word means. And for the safety of us all, don’t swim in public and subject the children to this horror show of stupefaction and ignorance!

    • Matt Mitchell

      Jul 24, 2016 at 12:06 pm

      Haha seriously! Says the man who got kicked out of a public pool. Just contribute something worthwhile. Sorry I called it out but know what the words mean before you make a definitive statement about them. You made a negative comment about this article which means you have just judged your own intent of leaving a comment! I assume your original comment was to show the uselessness of this article? If that is the case then why in the world are you calling me out for you calling the author out? Grow up bro, read a book, and at least measure your comments regarding others with some modicum of self reference.

  7. Joe sixpack

    Jul 22, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    Just not very interesting.

    Make a clear point and explain it. Showing lists of rankings in various stats is pretty meaningless. Who cares if someone is 20th or 120th in “yellow zone play” if the difference between the two is a fraction of a stroke per round? You need to give context. You need to explain what matters and why.

    All this shows me is an excel table that you created for each player and then cut and pasted. Highlight the stats you think are relevant and explain why.

    Rather than throw out a few dark horse candidates, pick someone who you think is the best candidate and explain why.

    This is the kind of stuff they teach in jr. High…..

    • Richie Hunt

      Jul 22, 2016 at 7:59 pm

      I hear your point. However, much of this is difficult to quite translate between stroke play on Tour and Ryder Cup play. For instance, ‘only a half a stroke per round’ is actually a tremendous difference in a player’s season. If a player improves by a half stroke, they are going to improve roughly 45 to 70 spots on the Money List (Money is always hard to project due to different purse sizes in events and ties splitting the purse).

      Also, the subject has been a recurring article for myself on this Web site….what goes into good Ryder Cup players and what types of players are good in fourball vs. foursome formats. So at the sake of sounding redundant, we kept this one more brief.

      • Joe sixpack

        Jul 22, 2016 at 10:51 pm

        Amusing that you misquoted me. That won’t help you win arguments or seem more professional. (And your goal here is to develop a reputation as a statistician, right? A stats guy needs to be precise in his language.)

        I don’t see how any of this helps your cause. Your analysis of stroke play stats is inherently difficult to use as a predictor of match play performance in the pressure cooker of the Ryder cup, as you acknowledge. So why bother? You end up with an incoherent piece that says little and doesn’t do much to increase your stature as a statistician.

        There are other stats guys out there doing a lot better work right now. You’re going to have a tough time competing with them with this kind of stuff. Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t know how a golf statistician can earn a living posting on a website like this. Seems to me you need some tour players to hire you to advise them. In my opinion this kind of article isn’t going to help make that happen.

        • Matthew Mitchell

          Jul 23, 2016 at 1:06 pm

          Wow, Joe Sixpack- you are kind of a d-bag! Your name suggests as much and you think far more of your position than I think you own in mental awareness to substantiate. Were you hoping that Rich provide a far deeper, more in depth article on the subject that is, by definition, subjective! They are his dark horses and they don’t have to be yours. I could tell you to go to hell and you don’t have to go though your critique here may say otherwise. Did you want him to take the stats and use them in a Bayesian prediction model for the purposesof probability calculus. Perhaps a hint of modal logic and possible world argumentation of different scenarios playing out in different possible situations that would best support the above stats WHICH HE DID EXPLAIN UNDER THE HEADER! Lets get into the weather predictions and past scenarios of when those players played in similar weather conditions. Maybe He could have dug deeper in the probabilistic permutations and calculated which player would statistically do best with other known Ryder Cup players. Were you hoping this would be peer reviewed by other golf scholars like Butch Harmon, the ghost of Bobby Jones, and every Golf Channel commentator! Next time you think of writing on this site, I want you to do two things. 1.) Don’t contribute 2.) Test and see if what you say has anything relevant at all- soon to be Joe Kegger! (Opposed to six pack- have I lost you yet). Also, rather than being an annoying troll talking about things far above your pays scale, be far more concerned with excellence in your own contributions than the lack of quality provided by others. It may serve you well. I think this may only be the 3rd time I have ever contributed on this site but I can’t leave stupid and spiteful alone.

          • Matt Mitchell

            Jul 24, 2016 at 12:17 pm

            Man, you really don’t like people making negative comments after you vomit all over the Internet. Let me put it this way, we have already established that you don’t know the definition of the words coincidence and statistic so I would be hard pressed to think you are qualified to peg a persons disposition!

  8. Clemson Sucks

    Jul 22, 2016 at 11:08 am

    If any of these 5 are on our team we are in trouble.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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