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The most ridiculous element of the Dustin Johnson ruling isn’t the ruling

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A scroll through the PGA Tour’s Twitter list of pros using the social media service during yesterday’s U.S. Open final round reveals a boiling over of rage and disbelief directed at the USGA from nearly all the big names in the sport, including the usually radio silent Tiger Woods. And while there are several avenues of furor to be traveled, there’s a main drag of absurdity that hasn’t yet been widely trafficked.

But first, the main points of ire, from the players’ perspective.

First: Players don’t seem to think Rule 18-2b was written with U.S. Open-fast Oakmont greens in mind. As Adam Hadwin tweeted, “If the usga wants to stimp greens at 15 on sloped greens, then they should expect ball to wobble without player influence.”

So there’s issue with the rule itself. Yes. Fine. Entirely justified.

This was nothing compared to the rage directed toward golf’s governing body regarding how DJ’s one-stroke penalty was assessed.

To recap: The lunacy began when Johnson invited a rules official to weigh in after his golf ball wobbled as he prepared to address a three-foot par putt at the fifth hole. The official walking with the group indicated the ball did not move due to the golfer’s agency, and thus he was free to replace it without penalty. When Johnson made it to the 12th tee, however, he was approached by another of the blue-blazer clan and told that the events on the fifth green would be reviewed after the round with the golfer.

For the viewers, the back-nine drama was compromised by the absurdity of the hovering rules situation — whether a penalty was to be assessed or not — and it superseded the drama of DJ notching his first major victory, which was a travesty. For Johnson, however, the final six holes of his his round were played in a fog.

A staunch defender of the golf’s governing goofs and the lords of integrity might say that not only was the ruling correct based on this passage from the USGA’s Decisions — a player’s ball lies on a flat portion of the putting green on a day with light winds. The player addresses the ball and the ball immediately moves. Under these circumstances, it is more likely than not that the act of addressing the ball caused the ball to move — but that Johnson ought to have assumed the worst after the 12th hole, expecting that he’d be assessed a penalty and playing accordingly, such a situation is patently absurd. And the players agreed.

What Johnson actually did, was the opposite.

“I felt like I wasn’t going to be penalized, so I just went about my business,” he said. “I just focused on the drive on 12 and from there on out, I knew it’s something we’d deal with when we got done. I’m glad it didn’t matter because that would have been bad. But, you know, it worked out.”

Lucky for DJ, but even luckier for the USGA, in everyone’s minds it seemed. What’s the operative assumption here? Johnson would have gained unfair advantage by testing the speed of the green with the one millimeter of roll? That he’s technically taken a stroke because it was “more likely than not” his agency caused the ball to roll.

All of this flies in the face of common sense. But even in a “Just doing my job, ma’am” situation, the insanity of an initial determination being overturned later is truly bonkers and it is the crux of the problem.

Imagine a parallel situation in any other sport. Something like this in the NFL (a league that certainly doesn’t corner the market on sanity): “We’re not sure if there was offensive pass interference on the second-quarter touchdown. We’re ruling a touchdown for now, but after the game, we’re going to talk to the wide receiver and show him the video. So, just so you guys know, you may or may not have scored in the second quarter. Now carry on for the rest of the game.”

Here’s the determination and the bitter pill to swallow. The USGA got it right, as per their own rules and standards. “As a committee, when we reviewed the tape, we said, given the timing of his actions, it was more likely than not that Dustin was the cause of the ball’s movement,” said Thomas Pagel, senior director of Rules for the USGA. “There’s doubt there, and we understand not everyone is going to agree with that. But the standard is not 100 percent. It’s more likely than not.”

So… Mark Newell, walking rules official with the Johnson-Westwood group got it wrong, which is the origin of the problem here: An initial determination, which substantially affects a tournament, is made and play continues under that assumption. Fine. Great. Good. This is what happens in sports.

However, Newell should have referred to the “more likely than not” standard, absurd as it is. We can argue about the rules as they are written and enforced an inherent issues there, yes, but the material problem at the 2016 U.S. Open was the fact that Newell made a ruling, everyone accepted it, and then seven holes later, that ruling was tossed out and replaced with a confused face emoji.

True, Newell is ultimately more of a consultant than an arbiter within the system as it is. But that situation and those limited power are problematic as well, as indication by, well, exactly what happened Sunday. Rage against the rules and the associated barriers to entry in a dwindling game. Rage against the USGA. Rage against Mike Davis. Rage against the sapping of Sunday drama and whatever else. However, I’ll say it again. The USGA got it right with respect to their rules and their standards. The walking rules official, Newell, got it wrong.

And to add to the absurdity: the officials who approached Johnson on the 12th tee couldn’t make a binding decision either! All they could do was offer a different perspective with that promise that things would be sorted after the round when DJ was afforded the opportunity to watch tape of the incident in question.

A singular, ludicrous situation in the world of sports.

A USGA rules official at a U.S. Open has to be invested with the power to make a binding decision, even if it’s a wrong one. Too many significant assumptions are made as the result of their consultation and a tournament can be too materially affected, as we say. Otherwise, s/he must offer the disclaimer that “I may/may not know what I’m talking about: proceed accordingly.”   

Otherwise, players might as well just read their Rules of Golf and Decisions in the Rules of Golf and draw their own conclusions, knowing nothing is written in stone or engraved into the U.S. Open trophy until any post-round pow-wows are complete.

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GolfWRX Editor-in-Chief

65 Comments

65 Comments

  1. g-train

    Jul 6, 2016 at 1:44 pm

    The USGA got it sooo wrong. Golf is supposed to be a game of integrity. By asking DJ if he caused the ball to move and him answering “No”, they have effectively called him a liar (technically that they disagree with him; and only their opinion counts). In making their ruling, they abandon such principles as “virtual certainty” which is used to handle rulings in situations where visual evidence isn’t available… which is the case with DJ… there is no visual evidence that shows him causing the ball to move. DJ says he didn’t cause the ball to move. Westwood says he didn’t cause the ball to move. The cameras didn’t show anything that indicates he caused the ball to move. Two things caused the ball to move… friction and gravity! less of some and more of the other. if all parties agree that DJ didn’t do anything to cause the ball to move, then you are virtually certain he did not cause the ball to move.

  2. Larry

    Jun 25, 2016 at 9:31 am

    The officials/ruling presentation, was a distraction of a major concequence. It would get into anyone’s head for sure. Especially with a major at stake. Like others have stated, good thing that DJ was able to overcome it. I do know for sure, this has to be the best pressure training ever. It will only make DJ a better player, and will be a valuable experience, even though the ruling and how it was presented got into the game. Golf isn’t like football or hockey, where the officials decide to “stay out of the game and let em play”. They are compelled to keep the playing field absolutely even. That is golf. It is a shame when an official makes a mistake, and it always happens. But when it is for a world title or a major, the concequence can be disasterous. We are human. With that comes mistakes. Congrads to Justin. Great win, and a great display of your mental toughness.

  3. BD57

    Jun 23, 2016 at 1:57 pm

    There were at least three instances of “ball moving” issues during the tournament, two on Sunday – and it’s not as if the tournament was played in high winds.

    IMO, none of the players involved had anything to do with the ball moving and none of them should have been penalized. If a player had nudged the ball, or the ball’s motion was in response to some movement / motion of the player, it’d be pretty obvious. DJ’s especially wasn’t – he’d finished his practice strokes, was in the process of moving his putter behind the ball and it tumbled backward a smidge. What’s the theory – – – – the wind draft created by the outrageous speed of his putterhead caused the rotation? Garbage.

    Want to know what’s going on? And then do something about it?

    It’s the insane pursuit of green speed.

    Oakmont opened for play over 100 years ago. They didn’t “triple cut” greens and then roll them to get ridiculous speeds.

    Cut the grass down to nearly nothing, roll them to get them even closer to linoleum, set the pins on 3-4% slopes, get even a hint of breeze & see if any golf balls wander off on their own without any outside assistance. And that’s dealing with an Oakmont that was moist.

    Here’s a thought.

    If you want to double/triple cut the greens, roll them & get the stimp to 14-15, put the pins on 1 & 2 degree slopes;

    OR

    Acknowledge that the golf course was built at a time when such speeds weren’t even imagined, set the speeds at 12, play golf & let the winner shoot what he shoots.

    • Larry

      Jun 25, 2016 at 9:31 am

      That’s it. DJ is known for his great club head speed! Great theory! The officials/ruling presentation, was a distraction of a major concequence. It would get into anyone’s head for sure. Especially with a major at stake. Like others have stated, good thing that DJ was able to overcome it. I do know for sure, this has to be the best pressure training ever. It will only make DJ a better player, and will be a valuable experience, even though the ruling and how it was presented got into the game. Golf isn’t like football or hockey, where the officials decide to “stay out of the game and let em play”. They are compelled to keep the playing field absolutely even. That is golf. It is a shame when an official makes a mistake, and it always can happen. But when it is for a world title or a major, the concequence can be disasterous. We are human. With that comes mistakes. Congrads to Justin. Great win, and a great display of your mental toughness.

  4. Justin

    Jun 22, 2016 at 4:59 pm

    If I hadn’t already seen your comments in other posts over the last few months, I’d think you were crazy. But because I’ve seen your comments before, I already KNOW you’re crazy!

    “USGA got it right”…. going for the against the grain comment, huh? Good luck with that! I know you won’t need it though, because idiots don’t need luck. The only things idiots need is time to show how little they matter and we certainly have plenty of time for that.

    If this was the response you were looking for I hope you are happy. Now stop being a little See You Next Tuesday and get a grip on life.

  5. AllBOdoesisgolf

    Jun 22, 2016 at 9:37 am

    another politically correct run organization. They’ll never get another dime of my money for membership. Only donation they will receive from me is my entrance to the Open qualifying. Which I consider a donation because odds of me qualifying are slimmer than them slim cut mens pants.

  6. pepperwhiteknight

    Jun 22, 2016 at 6:55 am

    The USGA pulled a stunt. The initial ruling was made on hole 5 with a rules official. They made a ruling after the round like they caught him doing something wrong. It doesn’t matter if he caused the ball the move or not, the ruling cannot be dragged out for 15 holes. I actually was upset/annoyed because they were dragging the drama out and showing it over and over and over and over. Referees trying to make themselves a factor in the game. That approach shot on 18 was awesome!

  7. Tom Morris

    Jun 21, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    The USGA has become a political dumbnuts organization …. the rules of golf as written in 1744 are all we need:

    1. You must Tee your Ball within a Club’s length of the Hole.

    2. Your Tee must be upon the Ground.

    3. You are not to change the Ball which you Strike off the Tee.

    4. You are not to remove Stones, Bones or any Break Club, for the sake of playing your Ball, Except upon the fair Green and that only / within a Club’s length of your Ball.

    5. If your Ball comes among watter, or any wattery filth, you are at liberty to take out your Ball & bringing it behind the hazard and Teeing it, you may play it with any Club and allow your Adversary a Stroke for so getting out your Ball.

    6. If your Balls be found any where touching one another, You are to lift the first Ball, till you play the last.

    7. At Holling, you are to play your Ball honestly for the Hole, and not to play upon your Adversary’s Ball, not lying in your way to the Hole.

    8. If you should lose your Ball, by it’s being taken up, or any other way, you are to go back to the Spot, where you struck last, & drop another Ball, And allow your adversary a Stroke for the misfortune.

    9. No man at Holling his Ball, is to be allowed, to mark his way to the Hole with his Club, or anything else.

    10. If a Ball be stopp’d by any Person, Horse, Dog or anything else, The Ball so stop’d must be play’d where it lyes.

    11. If you draw your Club in Order to Strike, & proceed so far in the Stroke as to be e Accounted a Stroke.

    12. He whose Ball lyes farthest from the Hole is obliged to play first.

    13. Neither Trench, Ditch or Dyke, made for the preservation of the Links, nor the Scholar’s Holes, or the Soldier’s Lines, Shall be accounted a Hazard; But the Ball is to be taken out teed /and play’d with any Iron Club.

  8. cjhl79

    Jun 21, 2016 at 3:37 pm

    The most ridiculous the incredibly telling element of this debacle is the fact that this is all there really is to talk about after one of the most prestigious tournaments in the sport. And it was a very similar storyline after the Masters.

    You know a sport is in serious trouble when the only thing being talked about after a major is an untimely ruling and the winning golfer’s wife’s short skirt.

  9. Snoopy

    Jun 21, 2016 at 1:47 pm

    Just wanna throw my points in:
    1) As stated by others, I’m in the camp that based on the actions and the timing, DJ couldn’t have caused the ball to move. In addition to wind and green speeds, I’ll throw in that the golf ball is an irregular shape, and so it tends to move in irregular ways.

    2) The rule as written obviously needs a tune up. It’s a huge pet peeve of mine in sports that certain rules still come down to a judgement. It’s clear the ball moved. It’s either a penalty for everyone, or a penalty for no one.

    3) For me, the ball didn’t really “move”. It changed its orientation, which obviously involves movement, but the putt before and after the move was negligibly affected. Play on.

    4) This is my biggest thing here… the purpose of the rules of golf are to ensure that everyone is playing an equal and fair game. To me, this whole situation goes against the spirit and purpose of the rules. I’m always amazed that something can be so obviously wrong, and most people can agree on it, but then a certain decision is reached because “rules are rules”. By the rules and procedures, sure, the USGA did what they were supposed to. But that doesn’t make it right, and for me that’s not an excuse to do something totally absurd and backwards. It’s clear there is an issue with the rule, but instead of FIXING it for the future, they said “Sorry, GOTCHA!”.

    5) No matter what they say, I’m sure the USGA is THRILLED that this whole situation happened. I’ve heard the letters USGA more times this weekend than I have in my life. I never cared about who or what the USGA was, but I guess I have to now. A case of, “Look at me! Referee!”

  10. Dennis clark

    Jun 21, 2016 at 11:07 am

    We may need to consider a revision to the rule: unless the putter contacts the golf ball there’s no penalty if the ball moves. Or perhaps if the ball moves BACKWARD no penalty at all. Who wants a longer putt?

  11. Shank

    Jun 21, 2016 at 10:10 am

    The cameras should only be used to watch the players play golf, not to make rulings! If they want to use video to make decisions then every player needs to have a camera watching every shot.

  12. Rich

    Jun 21, 2016 at 9:46 am

    Writer, get your facts straight. The ruling made by the referee walking with the group was to play it as is. He did not replace the ball as he did not cause it to move. If he had caused it to move, he would have had to replace it. In effect, DJ could have been assessed a 2 stroke penalty because he did not replace the ball, even thought later they decided it was likely he moved it. Thank god they didn’t go down that road. And for the official on the course getting it wrong? Rubbish. He made the right decision and it should have been left at that. The USGA are a joke.

  13. James G

    Jun 21, 2016 at 9:18 am

    Seems to me the current USGA powers have lost sight of the spirit of the game. They have become rules Pharisees where they look for violations of the rules and want to place penalties on players. Common sense application of the rules has been overcome by rules zealots who are intent on finding violations. The USGA screwed this up royally.

  14. KJ

    Jun 21, 2016 at 8:40 am

    “Stuck up weany”? Why? Do you know him? Please fill us in. Not a “MAN”? He sure played like one.

  15. KJ

    Jun 21, 2016 at 8:19 am

    I see most on this site get it. We have a few irrational DJ haters that appear biased but that’s okay. I’m indifferent. But I’ll provide a little insight. I’ve worked as a golf professional for years and hosted dozens of PGA Tour events. The PGA Tour is run very well and the rules officials are truly professional. The USGA rules guys are in full CYA mode. The excuse of the 7 holes needed to make a decision because of logistics is absolute nonsense. The have communication equipment and access to golf cars. Was there something going on that was more pressing than a ruling involving one of the leaders? Of course not. It would have been handled immediately by the PGA Tour officials. The USGA is truly an amateur organization compared to the PGA Tour. The USGA can tell themselves and the public they are comfortable that they made the correct ruling all day. That’s debatable. They cannot hide the fact that they have made a mockery of our national championship.

    • JTW

      Jun 21, 2016 at 3:15 pm

      Agreed, the USGA is a joke. They have no control over the direction of the game as far as equipment goes. They have no idea how to officiate a golf tournament apparently. They have no idea of the history of their own event as judged by the courses they have picked for their tournament. (Oakmount and Merion not withstanding) Now we get another links course next year in Erin Hills. When did the USGA
      decide to be the Open Championship. Mike Davis is a failure of epic proportions in his position. These guys are supposed to be the guardians of golf and are so confused it takes them an hour and a half to take a golf cart somewhere so they can look at video. They should be thanking there lucky stars DJ didn’t have one of his normal melt downs and have this awful ruling actually effect the outcome of what used to be the Major Tournament all american golfers wanted to win the most. Would this crap happen at Augusta or the PGA championship. Hell no. Please people quit sending these idiots money for membership it is the only thing they care about.

  16. Robert

    Jun 20, 2016 at 11:29 pm

    Hahah, man. Everyday you guys become more of a tool than you were yesterday. If there were no video evidence to review, I would understand that the “more likely than not” rule would go into effect and he would be penalized. With that being said, you have CLEAR EVIDENCE that he in no way touched his ball, he in no way grounded his club behind the ball not to mention, if you look closely, you can see somewhat of the balls reflection in his club and it’s CLEAR the ball rolled BACKWARDS. What the f$&@ is wrong with you guys?

  17. colinroberts

    Jun 20, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    The rule itself needs to be scrapped. What purpose does it serve? the game is almost entirely self-regulated so therfore the players must be entrusted to abide by the rules, period, end of story. If a ball moves on the green for any reason. the rule should be that it gets placed back in position. Someone needs to tell me why the that would not work. This is not the NFL.

    • KJ

      Jun 21, 2016 at 8:27 am

      I agree 100%. I hope that’s the direction this will go.

  18. Nocklaus

    Jun 20, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    A ruling made on the course must stand. What if it was matchplay…?

  19. krsgolf

    Jun 20, 2016 at 8:56 pm

    I wonder when changing this rule if the USGA conducted countless hours of studies softly setting putters alongside a ball on greens. If you conducted a test 10,000 times softly setting a putter down alongside a ball I would guess that the vast majority of the time it wouldn’t move unless you tapped the ground aggressively or touched the ball. Even greens with these speeds. Unless your results concluded that more than 50% of the time the ball moved from these motions how could you create a rule which says if in doubt it is likely the player caused the movement? I have never putted on greens rolling 14 or 15 but I have on 12’s and I can say that while I have seen balls move after setting them down and removing my marker, or oscillating because of the wind, a blade of loose grass or even the tiniest grain of sand, I have never in my golfing career seen a ball move because I or anyone else set a putter alongside it unless it was physically touched. The rule needs to be changed.

    And I have a significant issue using television coverage to go back after the fact and overturn the ruling of an on course official. I believe that each and every one of these players, regardless of their personal transgressions, do everything possible to uphold the honesty and integrity of the game. The fact that video coverage can be used against those that are lucky or unlucky enough to be in a covered group should be an outrage to all PGA players. If you can’t use video playback to review every player in the field you shouldn’t use it at all. Use of it is not in the spirit of the game. Shame on the USGA this weekend.

  20. Tom

    Jun 20, 2016 at 8:37 pm

    Bad rule made worse by the green speed. At least unlike the British Open last year they did not have to stop play due to wind. Green speeds are simply ridiculous now they should never be so fast a ball can not be easily marked and replaced, so fast wind can cause suspension of play, etc.

    I could not help thinking as I watched the US Open it’s not the same game the rest of us play and that had nothing to do with how far the drives went etc…

  21. Andrew

    Jun 20, 2016 at 8:24 pm

    Truly great win for Dustin – so well deserved. With all the distractions going on he played like a true champ. His second into 18 was IMHO one of the best shots ever (especially after having to back away first time around!) A true testament to perseverance under the greatest pressures in championship golf. And I’m a European; I know……

  22. emerson boozer

    Jun 20, 2016 at 7:23 pm

    Wait that was actually a technical foul. Golden State gets two free throws and the ball.

    Sorry, Cleveland.

    USGA, great way to ruin a great event with that cloud hanging over DJ. I’m not a fan but I am now and this is why people get fed up with golf.

  23. Matto

    Jun 20, 2016 at 5:36 pm

    But who was the other player that got away with it earlier, his name slips my mind? They were fine with him not having moved his ball, and he actually grounded his club behind the ball!!
    Conversely, imagine they DIDN’T tell DJ on the 12th and he finishes 18 tied. Or worse yet, 1 up? Throws his hands in the air in victory, only to be tapped on the shoulder during the crowd’s roar, “Er, excuse me DJ, hold that thought & come with us to watch a video.”
    The immediate ruling, right or wrong, should ALWAYS stand.

  24. Forsbrand

    Jun 20, 2016 at 5:31 pm

    Can we replay the final round perhaps 🙂

  25. KJ

    Jun 20, 2016 at 3:43 pm

    I think we can all agree that the USGA blew it. It wasn’t handled well and leaves the organization with a black eye. Furthermore, it hurts participation in the game by the confusion between players and officials as to what the rules are. So many are intimidated to even take up the game and then the USGA adds these nonsensical rules to it. This is terrible PR.
    On top of that, the best players in the world chime in supporting their fellow-competitor. The USGA looked completely foolish and rightfully unsupported. They went out of their way to penalize DJ who, in my opinion, handled it fairly well. Correction. Extraordinarily well, as exemplified by his birdie on 18.
    I don’t know or care why some people on this site have it in for DJ, but I don’t know how he could have handled it better. He and Westwood truly believe he didn’t cause the ball to move. The USGA did, in effect, call them both (for lack of a better word) liars.
    The attacks on the USGA could very well snowball from here as it’ll be open season on them. Hopefully, the game will be stronger for it in the long run. Unfortunately, the USGA’s reputation has been dealt a severe blow from which it may never fully recover.
    Sadly, it’s back to video games for our youth as they witness this fiasco.

  26. CL

    Jun 20, 2016 at 3:29 pm

    The decision is one thing but the timing is by far the dumbest thing in this situation.
    can someone explain to me why it took so long for the USGA to decide on a review? It took them 6 holes to figure out “hey lets watch the tapes and decide it might help” @15mins a hole that’s an hour and a half. What were they doing?!?

    • Christen_the_sloop

      Jun 20, 2016 at 7:20 pm

      Playing the rusty trombone.

    • Scooter

      Jun 20, 2016 at 10:36 pm

      Peter Kostis walks the course and diagnoses players swings in real time using a small portable monitor. The USGA’s excuse for taking so long was that it was crowded and it took awhile to get back to the tape room. The walking rules officials ruling doesn’t count? The USGA seems to be dorked-up on so many things … sigh.

  27. KJ

    Jun 20, 2016 at 2:58 pm

    Oops. “no right to know”. Sorry.

  28. Johny Thunder

    Jun 20, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    A better question for the USGA is this: if the “weight of evidence” caused them to penalize Dustin, how can they explain that EVERY SINGLE TV Commentator and EVERY SINGLE Tour Pro watching (as far as I’ve heard) does NOT believe Dustin caused the ball to move and has said as much. Assuming the USGA doesn’t have additional footage, it seems abundantly clear to everyone else in the world that nothing Dustin did could have caused the ball to move in the way, in the direction and at the time it moved.

    Moreover, the idea that a ball rotating 1/4 turn on the green incurs the same penalty as chunking a ball into the middle of a water hazard seems inequitable.

    Dustin composed himself extremely well both during and after the round in the face of this ludicrous action. The USGA and in general tournament officials need to improve their process so this never happens again. It almost ruined the entire back 9 of what’s supposed to be the more important U.S. major (though everyone knows it’s the Masters).

  29. Iutodd

    Jun 20, 2016 at 1:26 pm

    Forget about everything else other than this:

    The USGA called DJ and Westwood liars! And broke their own rule.

    The rule states that it must be known or virtually certain that an outside agent caused the ball to move. DJ and Westwood were both virtually certain that the ball moved because of the wind/green speed/etc and not because of DJ touching or hitting the ball. The walking referee agreed because he had no instant replay. And, as, Dana stated above – rule 34-3 in very plain language gives the walking referee final authority on ruling matters.

    Golf is a sport that teaches honor and honesty. It teaches us to accept our faults and penalties and ask for help when we need it. DJ knew what happened but still did the right thing by asking his playing partner and the walking referee for confirmation. Everyone agreed and that should have been that.

    The fact that they went back and reviewed it and gave him a penalty calls into question DJ’s and Westwood’s integrity – which is disgusting. Both are longtime pros and winners. And now DJ is representing the USGA as the winner of their highest honor. And they called him a liar. And apparently the USGA can break their own rules if they have TV coverage – so it also calls into question the integrity of the entire rulebook!

    DJ was very classy about the whole thing of course – the USGA owes DJ a public apology for impugning his integrity as a professional.

    • 4pillars

      Jun 20, 2016 at 1:55 pm

      “The fact that they went back and reviewed it and gave him a penalty calls into question DJ’s and Westwood’s integrity – which is disgusting”

      Didn’t DJ deny he had a drug problem?

      Where is his integrity there

      • KJ

        Jun 20, 2016 at 2:33 pm

        That’s his personal life which we have know right to know. Nice try. Stick to the issue.

      • Donald Quiote

        Jun 20, 2016 at 3:07 pm

        His personal life is his personal life. Lots of people have made bad choices but in todays world everything is out there to the masses. The ruling against DJ comes across as a shot to all players. They now have been told that what they say doesn’t really matter. The USGA doesn’t care that so many players have spoken up saying that the greens were crazy and very easily could have caused that ball to move. The rule should read that the player must be able to prove that they did not cause the ball to move because that is how the USGA enforced it. This rule is vague and poorly written and the USGA decided to flex its muscle in a very poor manner. The whole situation was handled very poorly by the USGA. It is ridiculous to bring up DJ personal life in this matter though and compare that to his on course actions.

  30. ooffa

    Jun 20, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    If it was Tiger they would have let him take a few practice putts with no penalty.

  31. Andy B

    Jun 20, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    I think everyone posting here is looking at the wrong piece of this situation. The piece here that stinks to high hell is the fact that they let him play the last 6 holes with the uncertainty of being a stroke down. Why even approach him at 12 if you weren’t sure (which clearly they were sure they’d assess the stroke). The USGA is the governing body and should be making a ruling regardless of “well we wanted Dustin to see it”. Who cares if he sees it?! You’re going to rule how you’re going to rule. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but this LOOKED (may not have been) like an ugly ploy to get into Dustin’s head. The crime in all of this imo is informing him at 12 and letting him play through 6 holes with uncertainty. If you’re just addressing the rule itself I think you miss the truly criminal part of this whole thing. However, looking at just the rule I would say that Dustin never addressed the ball…..and other pros seem to agree.

    • Donald Quiote

      Jun 20, 2016 at 3:00 pm

      Completely agree. I can’t imagine how much that would rock me and we all know that DJ hasn’t had the best head game in the past. I personally don’t think he caused the ball to move but they should have just told DJ they decided it was a penalty and moved on. Did they think DJ was going to come into the clubhouse and watch the video and say oh yea I did actually touch the ball or cause it to move. He didn’t think he caused it to move. The outcry from all the other players on twitter really showed what they thought also. The biggest names in golf had DJ back saying it was ridiculous to try and pin that ball movement on DJ. Still the biggest problem is the USGA no having the cajones to just tell DJ they were assessing him a penalty.

  32. Murph

    Jun 20, 2016 at 1:06 pm

    The real issue is that many people seem to ignore is that the USGA guy on TV had pretty much concluded that it was a penalty. At that point, he should have just made a decision and issued the penalty. I am in the camp that thinks its absurd that DJ caused that ball to move and I have yet to see any evidence that supports the theory that he did. The whole thing makes DJ out to be a cheater and a liar by claiming that he caused the ball to move and he says that he didn’t. I think the spirit of the rule is to prevent people from gaining an unfair advantage by “accidentally” testing green speeds but a fraction of a revolution is hardly testing anything. The USGA, on their biggest stage, looked like a bunch of stooges and they tried to make DJ the scapegoat.

  33. Dunn2500

    Jun 20, 2016 at 12:52 pm

    It was bs call…….greens are stupid fast and ball moves all the time…the ball wouldnt even sTay on half the greens……grass is a living thing it is changing constantly, very well could have been on a little mound and being as fast as they were it just settled into a flatter area…….the way they handled it was unprofessional……they are lucky it wasnt a factor, if Johnson lost by a stroke because of that they would be in serious s$&% storm today…..I believe speed and grass were more of an issue than DJ…….one thing I hate about golf is all the little petty rules and uptight governing people who run it……..in a declining game not good

  34. Dana Upshaw

    Jun 20, 2016 at 12:48 pm

    “A USGA rules official at a U.S. Open has to be invested with the power to make a binding decision, even if it’s a wrong one.”

    They are under 34-2. Referee’s Decision – If a referee has been appointed by the Committee, his decision is final.

    IMO, the USGA broke Rule 34-3 Committee’s Decision – In the absence of a referee, any dispute or doubtful point on the Rules must be referred to the Committee, whose decision is final.

    • Atlantagolf

      Jun 20, 2016 at 3:54 pm

      Totally agree Dana. They put a referee with each group and his decision should have been final! The guy (referee) must have had some qualifications to be put in that position (he obviously was not there to be eye candy).

    • Cr

      Jun 20, 2016 at 7:13 pm

      Exactly

    • Bert

      Jun 20, 2016 at 8:17 pm

      Perfect Dana

  35. Chuck

    Jun 20, 2016 at 12:40 pm

    Oh, Ben you have got this all so perfectly wrong.

    First, a point of agreement (which I hope you hate). I agree that green speeds have gotten excessive. And they are the central, original problem. Actually, they aren’t the original problem. I like fast greens. By “fast,” I mean the 9.5 to 10.5 of Oakmont in the past. But when greens get too fast, we see this thing happen. Balls blowing around in the wind. Like at The Old Course just a year ago. And Augusta about five years ago.

    And the fault there is that golf balls haven’t been properly regulated. Ultrafast greens are a bad way to protect scoring against balls that go too far, especially off the tee. So let’s get that part squared away, ASAP. Roll back the golf balls, and support the USGA when Acushnet sues the USGA.

    Next; your completely inappropriate comparison of golf to other sports. Golf doesn’t have referees; at least not in the sense that other sports have them. The official on Five green with DJ didn’t see what happened. He relied on what DJ told him. But tv showed what happened. And the USGA cannot ignore video evidence. This is qualitatively not like baseball or football and as far as I am concerned, anybody who gets into this argument with a line about how, “Can you imagine this happening in a basketball/football/baseball game?” has lost it from the outset.

    I expect to be flamed for this; for simply agreeing with a ruling that the USGA made after consideration, after reviewing video evidence, after hearing from DJ, and after consideration. Yawn.

    The absolute easiest thing for the USGA to do would have been to forget about it and let it go. The fact that they didn’t (and the fact that they have all spent more hours in training, testing and officiating than you or I will in our lifetimes) tells me how totally convinced they are, of the rightness of the ruling.

    • fred

      Jun 20, 2016 at 1:14 pm

      Dinosaurs like the USGA and Chuck are on their way out. Yay!!!

      • Chuck

        Jun 20, 2016 at 1:26 pm

        I want to say, that my comment was mostly aimed at the freds of the golfing world, and not the Ben Alberstadts.

        Let’s give Ben Credit (along with Geoff Shackelford) for citing the relevant USGA Example from the Decisions on the new 18-2, and for correctly identifying the nature of the decision. I actually regret being so hard on Ben, as I expect there is more agreement between me and Ben, than between people like fred and Ben.

        Get your own game, fred. You don’t have to get a handicap, enter a state Am, or play by anyone’s rules.

        You don’t even have to play with conforming equipment! You should just buy some Bandit balls and let rip! Chicks dig the long ball.

        • Jimmy D

          Jun 20, 2016 at 3:30 pm

          Regarding the USGA’s Decisions, the example Ben refers to is from “situations where the weight of the evidence would indicate that the player caused the ball to move” does NOT apply since DJ did NOT address the ball (USGA’s defn of address = Grounding the club immediately behind or in front of ball), and was any part of those greens flat?
          If you read the entire section of the USGA’s decisions on this matter you will find a more relevant example of “situations where the weight of the evidence would indicate that the player did NOT cause the movement are: A player’s ball lies on an upslope in a closely-mown area. He makes a practice swing, but does so some distance from the ball as he is concerned that the ball may move. He carefully takes his stance but does not ground his club. Prior to making his backswing for the stroke, the ball moves. As the ball did not move while the player made the practice swing or took his stance, it is more likely than not that other factors (i.e., the ball’s lie on an upslope) caused the ball to move. (New)”
          Maybe the rules officials should have read the entire section…

    • Philip

      Jun 20, 2016 at 2:56 pm

      What video evidence are you referring to? Did you see him ground his putter behind or in front of the ball before his practice stroke beside the ball? From the video I saw he did not appear to touch the ball causing it to move backwards when he placed his club behind the ball. Since he moved his club sideways I would have expected the ball to spin, not just roll back if he actually touched it.

      • Ronald Montesano

        Jun 20, 2016 at 5:17 pm

        This is the element that my good colleague Ben’s thesis ignores: backward roll. There is no way that DJ could make the ball roll backward UNLESS he depressed the ground behind the ball, creating a void that would force the ball to move toward the void. Since he so clearly hovered the putter, he could not have been the agency (love that word) that caused the ball to move. Thanks for picking up on it, Philip.

        • Chuck

          Jun 20, 2016 at 11:41 pm

          Ron, which way did Shane Lowry’s ball roll; that is, when Shane called a penalty on himself, no rule official needed… ?

          I don’t think Shane Lowry’s putter touched or tapped the ball. I think he addressed the ball and it moved. My impression was that Shane’s ball rolled a fraction backward, much like Johnson’s.

          Perhaps you know better.

          • Justin

            Jun 22, 2016 at 5:18 pm

            “I think he addressed the ball” – you’ve answered your own question. DJ never addressed the ball because he never grounded his club behind it

    • larrybud

      Jun 20, 2016 at 3:23 pm

      The part you’re missing is that for the USGA not to make the call one way or another after reviewing it is nonsense. It took 7 holes to review? lol, ok, let’s even say that’s true (what’s that, like 2 hours?) Once the USGA reviews it, they MUST make the decision then and there for ALL players, not just DJ. Why should it take yet another 6 holes and the end of play to make a decision? What does it matter if they show DJ the video or not?

      But you’re right, golf isn’t like the other sports. Today, people are laughing at golf after one of their biggest events.

  36. Paul Lafleur

    Jun 20, 2016 at 12:36 pm

    I disagree with the claim that the USGA did get it right. There was zero direct evidence that DJ caused the ball to move. There was only circumstantial. What do we know? We know the ball did not move during the practice movements nor the groundings. Those are over-the ball is still. We also see nothing to suggest contact between the putter and the ball. We then see the ball rock back and down. This suggests movement from a high to low place. Grass is an uneven surface, even those cut as low as US open greens. The USGA is using assumptions here. The more reasonable assumption is that the ball was going to find that area of rest no matter what. It just happened to do so with the putter behind the ball. None of this comes close to more likely than not.

  37. Croonie15

    Jun 20, 2016 at 12:34 pm

    Absolutely ludicrous. In a situation like that it is down to the players and the walking rules official to determine the situation. This is why they are there in the first place. In over 20 years of playing, US Amateurs, European Challenge tour, Mini Tours etc. I have never seen or incurred myself a practice stroke on the inside part of the ball, grounding, no grounding, cause a golf ball to move from its static position. The USGA had nothing better to do in this situation. Ironically enough none of them were present and the original ruling should have stayed. It’s embarrassing and having played in several USGA Championships I’m absolutely disgusted with how the situation was handled.

  38. Logical

    Jun 20, 2016 at 12:30 pm

    I don’t agree with the ruling itself, regardless of the vague wording of “more likely than not”. I’m a degreed mechanical engineer. I’ve watched the video multiple times, and no matter how many times I watch, the ball DOES NOT move in direct response to him soling the club next to the ball, nor does it move in response to the club sitting in the air behind the ball. On greens of 14, if he caused it to move, it would have moved instantly with whatever motion they claim were causing it to move. It actually moves between his two actions, independent of anything he’s doing. It is “more likely than not” the incredibly dry and fast green speeds were more likely the culprit causing the ball to move as some grass or dirt shifted underneath. Anyone that has played golf with regular green speeds has had trouble getting the ball to stay still when replacing it on a side hill to putt. Now amp them up to 13/14 and try to get it to stay…it has to be really hard. More likely than not, the USGA messed it up again, alienating more folks from the game.

    • Dale Doback

      Jun 20, 2016 at 12:49 pm

      Agreed. If it cannot be 100% determined that DJ moved the ball than they should take the players word if they caused it to move or not. I understand that is not how the rule is written and that’s the problem. If there is doubt it should be left to the player. The bigger problem I have is that a ruling was made and then overturned after the round. They must be able to have rules that allow rulings on the spot so everyone knows their standings. A ruling was made right or wrong on the 5th green, Westwood agreed with it as did the official thinking that more likely than not DJ did not cause the ball to move. Then you get a committee that has a different feeling of “more likely than not” and decides to try and effect the outcome of the tournament. Rules need to be changed.

  39. Jimmy D

    Jun 20, 2016 at 12:28 pm

    With all due respect, your conclusion is Incorrect. Rule 18-2.b was REMOVED in 2016, and the purpose was to prevent an automatic penalty if the ball moves after it was addressed (club grounded behind the ball). Under the old rule 18-2.b, if you addressed the ball and it subsequently moved you were deemed to have caused the movement even if it looked like a gust of wind or a spike mark collapsing actually caused it (i.e., Wattel would have been penalized regardless of what actually caused the ball to move). I am assuming that the decisions you reference apply to this old rule; regardless, we are not talking about a flat portion of the green, and DJ did NOT yet address the ball, so the decision does not apply (you can actually see the reflection of the ball as he hovered his club behind it).
    With the removal of rule 18-2.b the penalty is not automatic and they are supposed to determine whether the player actually caused the ball to move. Most observers seem to concur that nothing in the video shows that DJ’s actions caused the ball to move, and he should not have received a penalty. (Now the drop from the TIO is another matter completely!)

    • pgadt

      Jun 20, 2016 at 12:45 pm

      USGA got it wrong. Why rewrite the rule if the same criteria apply? How can you prove a negative……DJ did not cause it to move? The rules are riddled with these situations that require some eggheads’ “interpretation” of what HE thinks the rule is. “Weight of evidence?” The only evidence they had was: the ball moved. If they wanted to penalize DJ, they should have done it immediately, informed him and let the tournament continue. Why “let him review” the tape with us after the round, when it’s your decision, not his. The USGA is run by a bunch of amateurs.

      • FredTheBishop

        Jun 24, 2016 at 12:23 pm

        No, actually most of them are lawyers. Now you understand why a phrase like “weight of evidence” might appear in the Rules (actually the Decisions)?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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