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The Formidable 3-Wood vs. The Indomitable Driver

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In more than 50 years of playing, I’ve had a love-hate relationship with the driver. Being the longest club in the bag, it’s not an easy club to master. We stand farther from the ball than any other club, and though the club head is the largest, now up to 460 cubic centimeters, and the entire club the lightest, the shaft is both the longest and the whippiest in the bag. For these reasons, along with the reality of facing an often tree-lined fairway with sand or water near the edges, I’ve always been a bit intimidated by the driver. But a well-struck driver travels farther than any other arrow in our quiver, and the temptation is huge to use it time and again.

The driver is also the chief weapon/tool of the often-vulnerable golfer’s ego, a fact that club manufacturers have used to their advantage in offering up a new and improved menu of promised distance and forgiveness each year. Their advertising enters our brain like a fresh ball in a pinball machine (anybody remember them?), promising new hope for a longer hit and a better score. Out on the range or at the golf shop’s simulator, there are no trees or water hazards or bunkers to contend with, so you appear invincible as the numbers register obstacle-free distance and accuracy, convincing you that “This is it. This is the baby that’ll change my game. Yep, wrap it up. I’ll take it,” you confidently tell the smiling salesman, who continues to compliment you on how well you swing, attempting to further solidify the sale.

But then you take the behemoth out to the course for its first real spin, and the trees get in your head, along with the water to your right, and … ”Where did that slice come from? The guy in the store said this thing had a draw bias!” And soon you start feeling like Ulysses, drawn to the song of the beautiful, tantalizing Sirens (in this case, your driver), and avoiding certain death on the rocks by plugging his ears with beeswax, and having his men strap him to the mast so they could safely pass and continue on their epic journey. Then having passed the Sirens’ call without heeding their intoxicating song, they would be silenced, as legend has it, and die.

Are present-day drivers and the ad boys’ presentation of their winsome possibilities for game improvement equivalent to the song of the Sirens that tempted Ulysses? Perhaps. Which is why you might want to consider the endangered 3-wood on the tee. I say endangered, because despite Henrik Stenson’s noted proficiency with this long-time weapon, the 3-wood has been increasingly devalued as a viable substitute for the driver off the tee. Why? After all, with its shorter length, it can be more accurate in finding the short grass, which could definitely result in lower scores. Blow a driver into the trees, and one or two shots are lost right then and there. Keep a 3-wood in the fairway, and you restrict your losses to a bogey, and open the possibilities of par on a tight hole.

Of course, we all know why the 3-wood hasn’t caught on with handicappers: loss of distance when compared with the driver. And it’s true: A solidly hit three-wood could result in 20-30 yards less carry than a well-struck driver. But the keyword here is “well-struck.” How often do you strike a driver solidly when compared with a 3-wood?

Now I suggest you do some simple personal research around this issue, for looking at generalized stats from other golfers or even from Iron Byron will be mostly irrelevant to your situation. It’s not just physical factors involved, but mental. With a shorter club and swing, your confidence may increase as you face a fairway where obstacles abound. Take 20 swings on the range with each club and compare the number of solid contacts you make with each. Which club won: the 3-wood or the driver?

Of course, this exercise is only for those who, as I, have struggled with the driver more times than not. If your driver is consistent and works to your satisfaction, keep it in the bag and use it often. But if you depend on a hope and a prayer every time you step up to the tee box, then consider switching to the 3-wood (or 4- or 5-wood, or even 20-degree hybrid) as your club of choice off the tee.

In reality, a well hit 3-wood will go farther and more accurately than a poorly hit driver. Now many handicappers unfortunately are not willing to face this particular reality. Remember Einstein’s definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. That’s what the fanatical among us, myself included, do with the driver. We just won’t let go of expecting beyond expectation, into the realm of delusion, different results. Again, I think the ad boys have accomplished their goal of getting into the brains of we unsuspecting, innocent golfers, and conditioning us to the possibility that we may be capable of huge, booming drives smack down the middle of tight fairways, with long hang time, clearing all obstacles, and rolling out to 290, even 300 yards. These are powerful images, honed by watching pros on TV, as well as the occasional Teamster in your foursome who hits the cover off the ball.

But please consider the lowly 3-wood if you are driver-impaired (Mine’s a trusty Ping G10, a freebee from my buddy Rob Wallace. My driver is the great G30, but those turbulators aren’t always my friend). I hesitate to guarantee success, but I almost do with respect to accuracy and enough distance to get you to 150-yard range on most holes (depending how hard the wind’s blowing). You’ll be looking at more at pars and bogeys than doubles and triples. True, you’ll often be hitting your approaches first, but they will be on short grass instead of pine needles, tree roots, and over and under hanging branches that look much nicer from a distance.

Note: In the course of my research on this subject, I’ve stumbled on an interesting side effect to 3-wood use off the tee. As you get more and more proficient with this workhorse club, skill with the driver will improve as well. Why? Confidence increases, and, truly, golf is a game of confidence. I assert that eventually you can move back to the driver for holes where it’s really necessary, such as wide-open fairways without many obstacles like traps or water or whatever else can inch its way into your head and play with your timing. But now you will have a choice: both can be viable and usable clubs under the right circumstances.

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Stephen has been a freelance writer since 1969. He's written six books, including the award-winning The Mindful Hiker and The Mindful Golfer, a best seller. His book covers all aspects of the game of golf, and can be purchased at local booksellers and online here. Stephen has also written many regional and national articles, and currently blogs at www.mindfulgolfer.com.

40 Comments

40 Comments

  1. Pingback: How Fast Do Golf Balls Go – PrestwickCountryClub.net

  2. pvisser

    Jul 21, 2016 at 9:43 am

    You say with a shorter club and shorter swing you confidence will increase. Sure but why would you swing your 3 wood shorter when on the tee? Why not swing your driver shorter then? Problem with the driver is that the large club head tempts you to swing like a madman. The smaller 3 wood does not invite you to do that nearly as much. In my experience a wild swing with a 3 wood gives me bigger disaster hits than an equally wild hit with a driver, probably as it is easier to hit it on the toe or swing under the teed-up ball. But I don’t because the club head is much smaller and the ball closer to the ground.

    The length of the shaft can be a bit of an issue – I choke down on the shaft and, as with all clubs, that gives more control. But the biggest point is to swing in control, and you will hit just as many fairways as with your 3 wood.

  3. Dave

    Jul 20, 2016 at 8:55 pm

    Yo Uno do you know how far 310 yards really is better check your reader. Love these guys that hit it 300 yards and can’t brake 100.

  4. Monts

    Jul 20, 2016 at 6:57 pm

    No truer words have been written.
    especially in my case. I have been playing golf for 46 years and was as accurate a driver of the ball as anyone, but have lacked Club head speed to generate distances over 230yds. I wanted more distance.
    Since the advent of the super drivers I have lost the straightness and have spent thousands of dollars trying to find the holy grail of Drivers, still without success, this includes many many shafts as well.
    What i did purchase 2 years ago was the Galloway 3 deep pro ( skeptical again at that time) This 3 wood has saved me from the fetal position many times over an over again once the driver started misbehaving.
    I actually hit it longer and more accurately 90% of the time so I mix and match with my driver all the time.
    The issue with me is IF I use the 3 wood all the time it starts reacting the same as the driver figure that one out!!!

  5. myron miller

    Jul 20, 2016 at 5:58 pm

    I am very skeptical of using 3-wood all the time to replace driver, especially for older players. Today I played and measured my good drives – avg. 168. hit 11-12 fairways. Two times I used a 3-wood. Averaged off the tee 75 yards off the tee (hit it skyward too often) and no fairways. Off the fairway if I’m lucky i’ll hit 3 wood about 150-155 measured max is 175-180. But really good drive is 200-215 with moderate roll (zero roll today, very very soft fairways.

    Have tried 3-wood lots of time and never close. And losing 20-30 yards from 180 is not good and makes holes play even longer than they are.

    Back when I was a typical WRXer and hit it a mile, I did use 3 wood a lot on holes less than 350 that were for one reason or another not driveable.

    But nowadays, I’ve worked with the driver and hit it not very far but generally always in play. If not, it wouldn’t make much difference with 3-wood as it was super bad swing. Duck hook push slice and I can do that with any club. generally avg 10-11 out of 14 fairways with driver.

    And I see a lot of senior golfers that hit it down the middle – not super far but generally always pretty much in play – if not in fairway in first cut or so and usually playable. Anybody can hit it bad with a bad swing but if its generally in the fairway why switch. And I use a 47″ length down from the 48 I used for years. Just because the 48 was too close to max length and depending upon how measured arguments could say it was too long. And 47 gives me a little more breathing room.

    Extra length adds a little swing speed that adds a little distance. Just some extra practice gives enough control to keep it generally close to in play.

    Besides, as others have said, once you learn how to hit 3-wood off tee consistently, you can generally hit driver pretty good as well. Stenson hits his 3 wood 305. And that’s plenty far for most holes and keeps him out of the trouble that driver could get into if it were much longer. Even for a 500 yard par 4, 305 leaves less than 200 left which is a 5-6 iron and his iron play is superb. So why does he need more length.

    Personally if people have trouble with full sized driver, quite often the mini-driver will work better than the 3-wood and is much easier to hit off the tee, I’ve found.

  6. Ocho Cinco

    Jul 20, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    Great article. I have seen many golfers starting to hit 3-wood off the tee and become more accurate.

    But, what about the Mini Drivers? I have a golf buddy who put his driver away for a while because he couldn’t hit it straight. He switched to hit his 3-wood off the tee on every driving hole and was extremely accurate. Now he bought a mini driver and loves it. I had same issue. Every time I played with him, I would slice my driver on some holes and lose shots to him because he would hit his 3 wood on the fairway. So I decided to try it…I started using my old backup 3-wood (Nike SQ Sumo2 Squared 3-Wood) as a mini-driver and this helped me gain confidence on the tee. I was almost hitting it as far as my driver and definitely straighter. I was even out-driving some of my buddies! Now I am playing with driver, and hit more fairways, but am strongly considering a Mini-Driver! Waiting for Nike to come out with one.

    • Jo

      Jul 20, 2016 at 1:04 pm

      A mini driver is basically a modern day version of the old steel drivers. The difference is they are titanium heads now, but the CCs are still about the same (330 last time I saw). They also play with a modern 3w length shaft, which surprisingly is the same length old drivers used to be.

      The benefit is it can replace a 3w and driver because the loft is usually higher, around 14* or so. The smaller 330cc head makes it easier to hit off the fairway than a driver head at say 430cc, and is why it can replace the 3w as well.

      However; if for some reason you can’t hit a mini driver very well, the alternative is to build a better mini driver. Get a 430cc head and use a 43.5″ shaft and you basically also have a mini driver, without the capability of hitting it off the fairway.

      • Piter

        Jul 20, 2016 at 4:26 pm

        You are right on Jo. Had thought the same: isn’t a mini driver just a modern version of the smaller sized drivers’ from before? Had not checked the figures so thanks for that. For that matter, modern 3 woods are about the same size as drivers of even longer ago. But likewise with more loft.
        Instead a changing to a shorter shaft on your driver, why not just choke down your grip? It is what I have been doing recently and have been hitting it much straighter. Too good effect, have won 4 out the last 5 longest drives (c-grade) during Saturday comp. Playing with a 10 yr old TM Burner btw.

        • jo

          Jul 21, 2016 at 6:49 am

          I’ve tried choking down before and it just doesn’t feel right for some reason. The only club I can comfortably choke down on is my lob wedge lol. I’m not sure if it is the grip design being tapered or what.

  7. Steve Dodds

    Jul 19, 2016 at 7:54 pm

    Most people hit their driver straighter than their 3 wood.

    http://pluggedingolf.com/tee-shot-myth-golf-myths-unplugged/

  8. Uno

    Jul 19, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    Oh, and I have NEVER hit my 3 wood farther than my Driver. I wouldn’t know how. My driver is 30 to 40 yards ahead of my 3 wood, even on mishits. And I don’t miss my driver that much. But I definitely don’t get that much out of the 3 wood.
    You all should go find a driver and a driver swing that gets you out there. Tee it up high and rip it

    • dos

      Jul 19, 2016 at 1:47 pm

      It not hard to hit a 3 wood farther than a driver actually. If you hit a driver 200 off the tee on a par 5 and follow it up with a 215 yard hit with a 3 wood, guess what…You just hit a 3 wood farther than a driver….That is the whole point to the article. I’ve even done it with my own clubs.

      On a par 5 I ripped a drive 235 yards right down the middle with my driver off the tee. This left me with 265 yards to the hole. I pulled my 3 wood out and smashed the ball again. I hit 246 yards thanks to a downhill roll and wind at my back. So again entirely possible.

      I will say this. If you aren’t hitting your driver 20-30 yards further than your typical distance with a 3 wood, than something is off with your driver. My actual typical distance with my driver is around 235-245. With my 3 wood my actual typical distance is 215-225.

      I have recorded shots with my driver over 300 yards, and also with drives well under 200 yards. I also have 3 wood shots maxed around 250 and some as low as 80 yards.

      Goes to show some truth to the story. You can out hit your driver with a 3w, and on days when the driver isn’t working for you, highly recommended pulling out a 3w.

      • Tres

        Jul 19, 2016 at 1:56 pm

        Cuatro, Cinco, Seis

      • Uno

        Jul 20, 2016 at 2:57 am

        No, I don’t think I can hit my 3w longer than my driver. I’ve tried. I hit my driver around 310, and no matter how hard I try I can only hit my 3w to about 280, max, down wind with slight downhill into a par 5 with no hazards in front of green and open roll to the pin. Carry’s only about 260 though for that shot. But then I would have hit my driver about 335 with the same wind at my back. I don’t think I’ll hit my 2 hybrid in that situation.
        My distance gaps with all my clubs are where I want them.
        If I reversed the wind, and it’s into me, about the same speed, I would probably hit that drive about 280 max, and the 3w would only go about 250 tops if I get lucky, without to much spin on the hit, which is hard to do since I’m hitting down on it so much.

        • Jack

          Jul 20, 2016 at 5:45 am

          So clearly you’re an excellent player who averages 310 for your driver and 270 for your 3 wood. Congrats. You should really at least be playing on the smaller tours.

          • Merde Smizzle

            Jul 20, 2016 at 9:47 am

            Yeah except that he’s only an average putter. You have to be able to putt well and have an amazing short game to get on Tour. Anybody can hit it far these days. Look at all them college kids

          • Kevin

            Jul 20, 2016 at 11:22 am

            Yea, except he does not. The 3 and the 2 must be backwards on his keyboard

        • Dos

          Jul 20, 2016 at 9:14 am

          So here in lies the issue with your example. You base everything on max distance.

          In a typical round how many times do you hit 310 yards? All 14 drivable holes, 1/2, 1/4, 3/4?

          It is very easy to say, yeah I don’t hit my 3w longer than my driver, when you only look at max distance every time. My max distance with a 3 wood is 256 and had a lot of help from a fast green. My max distance with a driver is 311. So clearly I can’t hit my 3w longer than my driver either. But…

          On the hole where I snap hook a driver and it goes 189 yards into the trees, yes I can hit my 3w farther. Or the hole where I sky high a ball and hit the turf behind the ball with my driver and get maybe 210 yards. Yes I can hit my 3w farther then too.

          Point is, if all you do is look at max distance, yes you should not be able to hit a 3w farther. You have to look at the holes where you miss hit, hook, slice, sky one, top one, hit a tree, etc. That is the point of the article. When your driver is playing like crap, chances are you can hit your 3w farther. Especially if you are not getting pro distance.

        • Mr. Wedge

          Jul 20, 2016 at 12:26 pm

          In my experience people drastically overestimate how far they hit their driver. Everyone who says they can hit it out to 300 if they rip it, usually averages about 250-260. That one time you hit it 300 with a perfect swing, downhill roll, with wind at your back, doesn’t mean you are a 300 yard hitter. My guess is this guy hits it 265-270.

          • Jo

            Jul 20, 2016 at 1:11 pm

            This is very true. I know so many people who play off the theory of max distance as their average distance.

            I use a shot tracking device and my longest recorded drive is 311. It had assistance from a cart path and downhill. My average is around 225. My typical, which is a completely different stat, which factors out miss hits is 245. So 3 completely different numbers. My range of distance is 200-311 according to my shot tracking. That accounts for every drive I’ve hit.

            Anything under 200 and it considers it a miss hit because it has calculated what distances I hit the most often. I’ll usually have 1 to 2 shots below 200 per round.

            Anyways, it goes to show that actual distance can vary greatly. Mine is a 100 yard slide. I know I can expect to get 225-245 with my driver. It is well above my miss hit range, and well below what I’ve maxed out at.

  9. cody

    Jul 19, 2016 at 12:10 pm

    a lot of negativity here. i actually thought it was a good article. yes there is a bit of captain obvious to it, but it was good. lighten up everyone. I dont think anyone gets paid to right these articles they do it for the enjoyment of golf.

  10. Smitty

    Jul 19, 2016 at 10:02 am

    Probably the least insightful article I’ve read on WRX.

  11. Jake Anderson

    Jul 19, 2016 at 3:22 am

    this article was completely pointless.

  12. Uno

    Jul 19, 2016 at 3:12 am

    I enjoy hitting up on the driver. I don’t understand what’s so difficult about hitting these giant heads. I hit my giant driver nice. It’s such an easy club to use nowadays, compared to the tiny headed persimmons or the original metals. You don’t have to hit down and all you have to do is take it off the tee. So forgiving.
    Hitting down with the 3 wood is too scary, the shaft’s too long to hit down, it’s so far away from my body I can’t control hitting down on it so good, I’m also one to hit a 3 iron type club than a 3 wood

  13. Mat

    Jul 18, 2016 at 11:41 pm

    This is all garbage. All that’s being done here is a more controllable shaft length. This whole post could be summed up with “get a 43.5″ driver shaft”.

    • bingo

      Jul 19, 2016 at 1:51 pm

      As my name implies…bingo! I recently switched to a 43.5″ shaft that I took directly from my 3w. To make it fair I even took a 5w shaft at 42.5″ and put it in my 3w. Never looked back.

      The results will surprise you though. I don’t hit it any farther, but I do hit it a lot more accurate. I have not seen any loss of distance though. I have a ton of shots logged through game golf to back it up. If I just put up my typical distance with my old driver it is 220, with my shorter driver, my typical is 231. However; it has gone up only because I hit less balls short, not because I hit more balls farther. So same distance, but not nearly as many miss hits…

      3w has the same results.

  14. no3w4me

    Jul 18, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    I hit my driver so perfectly that no 3 wood ever matches it and I get scared about even pulling it out of the bag, I prefer to hit a 3 iron than a 3 wood

    • that guy

      Jul 19, 2016 at 3:26 pm

      Yeah I feel ya. I don’t even use a driver. I smash a 1 iron further than I do a driver. Don’t even game a wood now. just 1 iron down….Beast Mode!!!

  15. other paul

    Jul 18, 2016 at 8:59 pm

    Golf balls go so far these days that I don’t even use a 3 wood off the tee anymore. 4i at the most. The farther a ball goes the more offline. I play my best rounds aiming for 100 yards markers.

  16. Charles

    Jul 18, 2016 at 3:02 pm

    You can find an “old” driver like SLDR for less than $80. Go by one with 12° loft, cut the shaft to make 43 in total club length. Go play a casual round and discover how is funny to hit every fairway. It worked well for me. With this setup (mine is a SLDR 12, 43 in) I rarely miss a fairway, and my few misses are very playable.

  17. snowman

    Jul 18, 2016 at 2:29 pm

    good thought IF you hit 3 wood far enough. I hit my driver about 30 yards farther than my 3 wood, so playing the proper tees for me that’s a lot of ground to give up and on many courses could make several par 4’s barely or unreachable. As you say, if you just cannot hit driver, then great pull the 3 wood, but spend some time finding and practicing with a Driver. It is Very important for your potential as a golfer.

    • Hawks

      Jul 19, 2016 at 3:29 pm

      This is a great point. I think what the article is trying to point out is that for the average player the driver is really no longer than a 3w. When you consider the average driving distance of a 95s golfer is 200 yards, it really puts things into perspective that yes, you can in fact hit a 3w farther than a driver.

      I do agree that everyone needs practice with a driver to get it dialed in. You should be hitting a driver 20+ yards more than a 3w on a typical drive.

  18. LISTEN TO ME

    Jul 18, 2016 at 2:27 pm

    Go get an M2 3 wood! It is incredibly hot! I don’t use driver anymore. Don’t need it!

    • Bofhus

      Jul 19, 2016 at 7:24 am

      Agreed – the M2 three wood is a game changer. If only it came in the 13* then my (M2) driver might be left behind to collect dust!

  19. Steve Barnhurst

    Jul 18, 2016 at 2:23 pm

    I’ve carried a strong 3 wood for years – 13′ loft, 1.5″ longer than standard and it is my go to club. Great for tight par 4’s when you want a ‘good safe shot’ plus I can get it off the deck when I need to and let’s not forget about first tee nerves with the driver. It’s more forgiving and well hit, is up there with most drivers and not far behind others. Just about to upgrade to the Ping Stretch I think as nothing else out there on the market that appears to come close! right now.

  20. Scott

    Jul 18, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    Didn’t this website just have at least one article indicting that you might as well just hit driver, because the average player can’t hit a 3 wood either?
    http://www.golfwrx.com/336404/is-your-3-wood-really-more-accurate-than-your-driver-off-the-tee/

    • Ian

      Jul 18, 2016 at 3:21 pm

      Don’t believe everything you read on the internet.

    • ng

      Jul 19, 2016 at 3:07 am

      You’re too clever for this website, Scott

  21. SV

    Jul 18, 2016 at 12:16 pm

    Until about 10 years ago I used a 2 wood (13*) off of the tee instead of a driver. With the larger heads I was finally able to hit a driver. While I am fairly accurate off of the tee, I am not as accurate as with the 2 wood. Also, with the 2 wood I wasn’t trying to outdrive anyone, thus I made better contact and usually was not that far behind others or even up with them.
    The conclusion (mine) is that most people playing the correct tees would be better using either a 12*-13* driver or a strong 3 wood (13*-14*). The smoother swing will result in better contact, getting better distance combined with accuracy.

  22. Rancho

    Jul 18, 2016 at 11:44 am

    Not that the message is wrong, but there’s much debate that the quote about insanity was actually from Einstein and the phrasing of your relation of the tale of Ulysses and the Sirens isn’t accurate. Ulysses’ crew plugged their ears with beeswax, but Ulysses was tied to the mast so he could hear their song.

    Pedantry aside, there a lot to be said for a shorter club off the tee. I learned that following the Nationwide tour players around Empire Lakes and learning that they rarely took out the driver before the fifth hole.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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