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The strengths and weaknesses of Bryson DeChambeau’s game

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Bryson DeChambeau made waves last season in the golf world after he won the NCAA individual championship and the U.S. Amateur. Between his swing mechanics, unique golf clubs and knowledge of physics, he’s became one of the most interesting players on Tour. He turned professional after the Masters, and here is how he as performed on the PGA Tour so far this year.

  • Arnold Palmer Invitational: T27
  • The Masters: T21
  • RBC Heritage: T4
  • Valero Texas Open: MC
  • Wells Fargo Championship: MC
  • AT&T Byron Nelson: MC
  • Dean & Deluca Invitational: MC
  • The Memorial: T38
  • U.S. Open: T15

This has raised some eyebrows from readers who have asked for a more in-depth look at DeChambeau’s game, as he was in contention at the Masters at one point, played very well at Harbour Town before missing four cuts in a row, and started to regain his form back in the U.S. Open.

table-2

While DeChambeau missed four cuts in a row and has only recorded one top-10 finish, his scoring metrics have been sound thus far. Furthermore, he has done well on the Par-4’s which has the strongest correlation to Total Adjusted Scoring Average.

Driving Data

table-3

The rankings are based out of 202 golfers. So, DeChambeau ranking 100th means he’s at about the average in terms of effectiveness off the tee. He certainly generates a good amount of club speed, but he also appears to hit his driver with a bit of a downward attack angle in competition, which saps some of his power away.

I was a bit surprised by his Tee Shot Aggressiveness, which estimates how often a player is laying up off the tee. He was ultra-aggressive off the tee at Harbour Town and had great success there. But since, it appears he’s become very conservative off the tee and that may be giving him issues. He also has a fairly pronounced rightward miss bias.

Approach Shot Data

table-4

The approach shot data gives us a better idea as to why DeChambeau has had some struggles. The interesting part is he’s one of the best on Tour from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards), but the worst on Tour from the Red Zone (175-225 yards). This will typically translate to a lot of birdies, but also a lot of bogeys. When players get into the Yellow Zone, those that hit the ball closer to the hole on average are set up to make more birdies because they are hitting those approach shots into a makeable range. From the Red Zone, the players who hit it more closely save themselves from making bogeys and double bogeys.

What I find more interesting is that Augusta National and Oakmont are very Red Zone-centric courses, and he performed well there. His best finish was at Harbour Town, which is more of a Yellow Zone-centric course. My interpretation is that there is little reason to press the panic button. While the Red Zone is the most important range
for approach shots, DeChambeau’s poor performance is likely due to the learning curve of transitioning from collegiate and amateur golf to the PGA Tour. He’s excellent from 150-175 yards, and I believe that in short time he will greatly improve his Red Zone play.

Short Game and Putting Data

Screen Shot 2016-06-22 at 4.50.57 PM

Putting has also been an issue for DeChambeau. He has putted well from 15-25 feet, but putts from 5-15 feet have a stronger correlation to Adjusted Scoring Average. Much like approach shot play, these are the growing pains for a young professional. His Short Game data indicates he’s fairly competent around the greens and that his putting is likely holding him back from saving more pars.

In the end, DeChambeau has shown flashes of becoming the next top young professional on Tour. There has been a noticeable learning curve, but his Yellow Zone play and putting from 15-25 feet will lead to a ton of birdies on the Par-4’s. The performance at Oakmont is promising, since it is a course that stresses shots from 175-250 yards. One more thing to note; he has played the 4th toughest schedule on Tour at this point in time. The general idea is that once he starts playing in events with weaker fields, he should be able to have even stronger finishes.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

46 Comments

46 Comments

  1. Snoopy

    Jul 11, 2016 at 12:28 am

    Rich, (or anyone), I’ve always wondered this about Bryson… if his swing gets off, will he play around his miss or is he 100% committed to his swing chart and his swing plane? As in, if he misses one right, will he make the same swing and aim left, or will he try to correct?

  2. MAC

    Jun 26, 2016 at 3:11 pm

    IF I DIDNT KNOW BETTER I WOULD THINK YOU ARE ON THE SPECTRUM. LAST GUY I KNEW LIKE THAT WAS MOE BUY YOU COULDN’T HOLD HIS JOCK.

  3. Millennial

    Jun 26, 2016 at 6:38 am

    About as funny as a syphilis.

  4. Large chris

    Jun 25, 2016 at 3:29 pm

    Very interesting analysis as always…. The surprising thing is (and I do think he has a lot of game) is that his red zone play is so poor (ranked last), when you consider from previous articles that:

    A) 175 to 225 is the most significant indicator of success
    B) single length clubs are mainly supposed to improve the long iron game, yet this is his weakest point.

  5. Happy Troll

    Jun 25, 2016 at 12:01 am

    Yet you are down here reading and commenting. Seriously go read ESPN. Golf WRX is fine and my favorite website because of ease of commenting.

  6. Lee Layfield

    Jun 24, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    I love to watch him play. He’s going to be one of the greats.

  7. Steve

    Jun 24, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    I hate Facebook.

  8. Bob Pegram

    Jun 24, 2016 at 2:31 pm

    His very high hand position at address probably contributes to his tendency to miss to the right.

  9. Agreed

    Jun 24, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    Totally agree. Make it happen GolfWRX.

    • Shallowface

      Jun 24, 2016 at 3:52 pm

      Yeah, let’s link it to Facebook whose existence is the reason we need Snopes.
      All of you millennials are really going to be sorry when Freedom of Speech disappears altogether.

  10. Andrew

    Jun 24, 2016 at 12:21 am

    Maybe time BC to consider a blended set. 3-5 same length, 6-8 same length and 9 through to wedges same length. This will hopefully cover his short comings with the longer distance.

  11. Steve

    Jun 23, 2016 at 5:09 pm

    Excellent article.

    At what sample size is this data reliable enough to predict future performance?

    • Joe

      Jun 23, 2016 at 6:42 pm

      In no way does it predict future performance, but it does show current performance. Like I, and others, have pointed out he is in the learning curve. Also, he is under tremendous pressure to prove himself in order to gain entrance as a full time PGA Tour Player.

      He sought to enter the tour like Tiger did, win enough money or a tournament for automatic qualification. He is not Tiger. He needs seasoning on the mini tour.

      His problem is not his clubs, it is lack of experience and playing against a deep pool of talented Pro’s.
      He may have been the best in college and as an amateur, but this is a different stage. Everyone (!) on the tour are good, and all were successful as amateurs.

      There have been many who failed who were touted as the Next Great. No verdict yet on whether he will turn it around, go to the mini and up his game, become an average player, or rise to the top.

  12. Tc

    Jun 23, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    Poor guy. Getting analyzed this way just because he has them clubs.

    • Shallowface

      Jun 23, 2016 at 6:09 pm

      When a club or method is touted as being something that is going to revolutionize the way golf is played, it deserves this kind of scrutiny. Something truly revolutionary would be producing great results NOW, not after some sort of “learning curve.” I think Bryson is a quality individual and I hope he is successful, but I won’t be surprised if there are some changes along the way.

      • Joe

        Jun 23, 2016 at 10:46 pm

        This has nothing to do with the clubs.

        • Shallowface

          Jun 24, 2016 at 3:54 pm

          If has everything to do with the clubs. If not for the clubs, Bryson wouldn’t be drawing anywhere near the interest he is getting.

          • Joe

            Jun 24, 2016 at 10:07 pm

            You seem to forget that he was the NCAA and U.S. Champion. I believe this has only been done twice before. He would get interest regardless of what he plays.

            The article is about how he is doing competitively, not so good. There is no comparison between his clubs and what others are using. His stats have little to nothing to do with what he plays, but how he is playing. At this time his game (not his clubs) are what is in question.

            Single length irons are not new, they were used extensively in bygone era’s. I neither believe they are superior or inferior to the accepted current irons in use. They will not fit into everyones game, but I would think the ability to set up the same for every club would help the non-initiated golfer quite a bit. One-swing, one-setup.

    • John

      Jun 24, 2016 at 12:29 am

      Poor TC. At least your mom loves you

  13. Joe

    Jun 23, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    There is a learning curve. I think several years on the mini tour will help him. I do wonder about his resolve, this is an arrogant person with a lot of pride. Having to go to the Mini will affect him, the question is Negative vs Positive.

    Kuch came in heralded and disappeared for awhile, Bubba also spent some time in Time Out also.

  14. Emmizzle

    Jun 23, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    lol

  15. mr b

    Jun 23, 2016 at 1:44 pm

    he hits the ball so low.

    • mr b

      Jun 23, 2016 at 3:48 pm

      such a bully on the internet. so tough.

    • mr b

      Jun 23, 2016 at 3:50 pm

      you def win the award for golf internet forum tough guy of the year. congrats!

    • Kevin McKevKev

      Jun 23, 2016 at 11:46 pm

      At least he still plays Smizzo. The last time I saw you you were in the clubhouse smashing beers and talking about how you could have won the club championship if it wasn’t for a very unlucky 17 on the first.

      • Flavour Saver

        Jun 23, 2016 at 11:52 pm

        I remember that. He had an absolute brain fade and hit 5 shots out of bounds and then after a 4 putt he stripped of and kept yelling “I am the Smizzle. This can’t happen to the Smizzle”. From there things got really weird as he started coating himself in yogurt and then rolled around in the bunker for 4 hours before finally snapping all his clubs and throwing them in the lake. He still comes to the club everyday and is propped up at the bar telling anyone who will listen about how close he went to winning the club championships.

        • First Person

          Jun 24, 2016 at 12:05 am

          Did he really refer to himself in the Third Person? What a weirdo.

        • M Smoghurt

          Jun 24, 2016 at 6:06 pm

          People started to get suspicious when you were carrying a second golf bag.

  16. larrybud

    Jun 23, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    Iron data is the most telling, to me, and is a result of his single-length club setup. How easy can it be to control a finesse shot like 80 yards when you’re using clubs the length of a 6 iron?

    • Rich Hunt

      Jun 23, 2016 at 9:34 pm

      One should remember that the sample size is small. Furthermore, he switched from Edel to Cobra irons and I think there is a learning curve with that as well. I would not give up on them just yet.

  17. es

    Jun 23, 2016 at 9:22 am

    what is his status on the tour? did he use up all his exemptions for the year yet? he hasn’t qualified from his own merit yet correct?

    • mctrees02

      Jun 23, 2016 at 11:28 am

      So far, DeChambeau has earned the equivalent of 212 FedEx Cup points. He needs to earn 361 points before his 7 sponsors exemptions run out.

      Any event in which he finishes in the Top 10 automatically gets him into next week’s tournament and does not count against his 7 exemptions. As of today, he has the Quicken Loans (received invite as US Amateur champ) + 3 sponsors exemptions left to earn an additional 149 points.

      (below from a Golfchannel article)
      DeChambeau needs 361 points – the equivalent of 150th on last year’s FedEx Cup points list – to earn special temporary status on Tour, which would allow him to receive an unlimited number of sponsor exemptions for the rest of the season.

      If he reaches that threshold, he is playing for points or money equal to or greater than 125th in this year’s standings to earn exempt status for next season. That number is still a moving target, but for the sake of comparison, last year’s No. 125 had 458 points or $747,899 in earnings.

      At the very least, DeChambeau needs to earn enough points to finish inside the top 200 to reach the Web.com Tour Finals at the end of the year. That guarantees at least some status on the developmental circuit next year, with an opportunity, if he plays well, to earn a PGA Tour card.

      • es

        Jun 23, 2016 at 12:12 pm

        wow mctrees02, thank you for the detailed information.
        Looks like he really helped his cause by qualifying and playing well in the US Open. pressure is on to do well in those last 3 exemptions. if he makes it to 361 points i think he’ll make it to no.125

      • Emmizzle

        Jun 23, 2016 at 2:40 pm

        thanks

  18. Rich Hunt

    Jun 23, 2016 at 9:08 am

    That tends to be a bit of a learning curve as well. From my experience working with Tour players is that they tend to hit them too hard when they start out. Bryson is very speed conscious and works with Vector Putting (although he was taught AimPoint, first). But his putting from 15-25 feet usually indicates a firm putter of the ball and that may be a bit too firm on short ones.

  19. Forsbrand

    Jun 23, 2016 at 8:54 am

    When he scores well he’s wragged with his putter.

    He used totally different clubs to others and has faith in them, which is great, but I’m yet to see a major difference in his length or scoring with his clubs , ie knocking it closer than those average guys with standard equipment.

    If he wins two majors then I’ll change my mind

    • M.

      Jun 23, 2016 at 10:36 am

      Short irons are too long and long irons are too short?!

    • Concerned Troll

      Jun 24, 2016 at 9:36 am

      If you’re waiting for a definitive answer regarding whether or not single-length irons are “better” or “worse” than standard length irons, you’re not going to get one. They work for him because he likes them and has hit thousands of balls with them. Even if he were “knocking it closer” than the guys with standard equipment, that still doesn’t tell you jack about which set is better. It’s the indian not the arrow.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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