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Parents, get out of the way and let them play golf!

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In my work, I see a lot of games, a lot of athletes and a lot of interesting coach and parent behavior. The last one is the topic of this story, because parent behavior is a critical piece in how much young players enjoy golf … and how long they keep playing.

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The sad reality is that the majority of young athletes, including young golfers, drop out of competitive sports by the time they reach the age of 14. A study from the National Alliance of Sports tells us that more than 70 percent of young athletes leave competitive sports by that age. Why? It has nothing to do with the game. It likely isn’t the competition, the work involved or the effort required, either. Instead, it is the young people’s greatest fans, their parents — and sometimes their coaches — who take the fun away and make the experience of sports too complicated for the child to enjoy.

Instead of the pure joy of playing and achieving, young golfers get bogged down by heavy expectations, the pressure to win, and other complications introduced by the very adults who are most invested in them playing the sport. This may not be you, but for the sake of organized youth sports, please read on. And if you agree with what’s written, pass this story on.

Egos Run Amok

I’ve run a number of sessions on high performance for young golfers recently; a hot topic is always pressure and how young golfers handle it. Part of the complication is that mom and/or dad are often the biggest source of pressure. They create expectations that might be difficult to reach, and over time, that sucks the fun out of the game for their kids.

Is it really about the kids or the parents’ egos? The kids, with their $300 shoes, top-of-the-line equipment, and bag full of Pro Vs look like mini-professionals, one step from the tour. What starts out as a desire to have their kids be active and play their parent’s favorite game can sometimes shift into something else. Motives change, and often not for the better.

Do You Have a Frustration Gap?

Many parents see their child on the course or the practice tee as what they’d like their child to be, and not what their child actually is. I call this the Frustration Gap. Parents watch their kids perform and the frustration builds … and builds … and builds as the parent waits for the child to reach the performance level the parent hopes to see.

While this frustration is not much fun for the parent, it is less fun for the child, who is constantly trying to live up to the parent’s expectations. Usually, those expectations are unrealistic, and not in line with the child’s abilities or motivations. This tension is a performance crusher, and can lead a child in the wrong direction – sometimes out of the game for good.

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The Mini-Van Golf Prison

Is your vehicle a Mini-Van Golf Prison, a place your child is trapped as you express your frustration with his or her performance? While most parents have good intentions for these chats, their budding professional becomes the target for all sorts of emotions felt by the parent while watching their child and expecting more.

What happened out there today? You looked tired… was that it? I’ve seen you play so much better than you did today. What’s wrong?

These questions and comments can begin a spiral of frustration between a young golfer and parent. And unfortunately, these opening lines often lead to deeper criticisms and questions resulting from the parent’s frustration. I really wish I could measure how much confidence the mini-van prison syndrome has destroyed in young players. All I know is it’s a problem, and awareness of your own car rides after the round is something to consider.

Some Ideas to Help

To help you and your young golfer avoid the Frustration Gap and the Mini-Van Prison, and keep them enjoying the game, here are a few ideas to consider.

1. Step back emotionally. Don’t forget this is your child’s life and experience. One of the joys of being a parent is guiding your child through life and enjoying their successes, but it can be taken too far. If you become obsessed with your child’s performance, and find yourself placing unrealistic expectations on them, you need to take a step back.

2. Make car rides positive experiences. Don’t talk about the game in the car. Let the child initiate any conversation related to the game. If they want to share, they will. And make sure to let the child know you are their biggest supporter, and will be there for them whether they win or lose; play well or make mistakes.

3. Praise achievement. Don’t be critical or instructive. Learn to praise achievement and not focus on your child’s limitations. Make sure the child knows you are proud of a great shot, round and attitude.

4. Focus on process and effort. Don’t be too results-oriented. Your priority for your child needs to be that they feel good about themselves and are happy so that they are motivated to play again tomorrow.

5. Let your young golfer do what is right for them now. Don’t push the child based on your desires. Encouraging your child is great, but don’t cross the line and push your child further than he or she wants to go right now.

6. Let coaches coach! Don’t be both the parent and coach. Coaching and instruction both from parents and coaches confuses the child and has little positive impact.

7. Adjust your expectations. Don’t allow your frustration to build. Letting your Frustration Gap build is not helpful for you or the child. A parent who bottles up frustration becomes a ticking time bomb, waiting for an opportunity for the frustration to become uncorked.

8. Every child makes mistakes! Don’t hyper-focus on your child. Parents put their own children under a microscope, and live and die by each movement the child makes. This hyper-focus on your own child — watching their every move — creates a lack of perspective relative to the other kids on the course, and in the game in general.

If your child is one of the chosen few who are talented enough to play college golf, or even make their way into the professional ranks, great. But 99.9 percent of kids won’t go on to do these things. The important thing is to set the table early for these young players to enjoy what is the best game in the world … for a lifetime.

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John Haime is the President of New Edge Performance. He's a Human Performance Coach who prepares performers to be the their best by helping them tap into the elusive 10 percent of their abilities that will get them to the top. This is something that anyone with a goal craves, and John Haime knows how to get performers there. John closes the gap for performers in sports and business by taking them from where they currently are to where they want to go.  The best in the world trust John. They choose him because he doesn’t just talk about the world of high performance – he has lived it and lives in it everyday. He is a former Tournament Professional Golfer with professional wins. He has a best-selling book, “You are a Contender,” which is widely read by world-class athletes, coaches and business performers.  He has worked around the globe for some of the world’s leading companies. Athlete clients include performers who regularly rank in the Top-50 in their respective sports. John has the rare ability to work as seamlessly in the world of professional sports as he does in the world of corporate performance. His primary ambition writing for GolfWRX is to help you become the golfer you'd like to be. See www.johnhaime.com for more. Email: [email protected]

36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. golfraven

    Jun 3, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    I usually step away when my 2.5 years old one starts to throw his clubs in the air. Danger especially when at home. Other then that I love to see him practice just out of his own will and just enjoy watching him do it. When I try to show him something he goes bananas so I rather don’t get involved as he knows best.

  2. Armypilot84

    Jun 2, 2016 at 8:21 am

    I think this is a really interesting article. I completely agree with the idea of “getting out of the way” when it comes to a young child playing golf. Golf is an incredibly hard game that I truly believe in my heart that no one is naturally good at. You have to love the game in order to want to get better. I only take me 5 year old son to the range when he asks me to go, and while there I do not try to instruct his swing. We play games where he tries to hit targets. I have only taken him a handful of times to go play 9 with me in the evenings and when we go I have a strict “No Frown” policy. I do not focus on his game at all, but his attitude. I give him one “mulligan” when it comes to throwing a fit or getting upset after hitting a bad shot. After that we go home if he does it again. It sucks wasting the $40+ in greens fees after only 2-3 holes, but it seems to have kept him yearning to play more. I just want him to have fun putting the ball in the hole because that is what the game is all about. I don’t care how it gets there.

    • John Haime

      Jun 2, 2016 at 1:07 pm

      Thanks for sharing your experience. Nice approach you have. Some fundamental instruction combined with allowing the young player to take ownership of the experience should lead to fun and great results.

  3. Dr. Dormie

    Jun 1, 2016 at 1:26 pm

    John, your advice for dealing with the interfering, hovering parent of juniors is sound. I watch it all the time at a local range where mothers and fathers can’t let the kid practice without cleaning his/her clubs, teeing up the ball, taking videos, and playing the part of a coach in instructing. It is oppressive in its smothering of the child and makes the game way too serious at way too young an age.

    In terms of your qualifications, please be sure you do not represent or insinuate you are credentialed, educated, trained or licensed as a psychologist in your articles or website. Being inspired by Daniel Goleman and his concept of “emotional intelligence” is just one small part of the pie. I say this as a clinical and sport psychologist who has been in practice for 40 years.

    • John Haime

      Jun 1, 2016 at 2:39 pm

      Hi Dr. Dormie,

      Thanks so much for your comments on the article – much appreciated.

      And, thanks for the advice and placing me a convenient little box LOL.

      FYI – respectfully, sport psychology is a very small piece of working with athletes and high performance. I use some basic principles that are widely available to all, but getting sustainable results with athletes and performers reaches far beyond the narrow reach of traditional sport psychology. Psychology is about fixing problems, I build and develop athletes, performers and people – very different approaches.

      My client list, including some of the world’s leading athletes, suggests that I probably know what I’m doing. It probably extends beyond inspiration from Dan Goleman (:

      • Dr. Dormie

        Jun 1, 2016 at 8:46 pm

        John, I did not place you in a “box.” I simply asked you to be careful in how you represent yourself. Your comments about sport psychologists are inaccurate. You say “psychology is about fixing problems.” When it comes to sport psychology, this couldn’t be further from the truth. Clinical psychology is about fixing problems–not sport psychology. Ask any respected golf psychologist if what he’s/she’s doing is “fixing problems.” You sound a bit defensive, referring to your client list, but I guess “giving you advice” was asking for some defensiveness. So, I won’t pursue this any further.

        • John Haime

          Jun 2, 2016 at 9:22 am

          thanks Dr. Dorrie.

          I don’t feel the response is a defensive one – but when someone questions my abilities to do what I do – I like to respond and explain. The idea here is to comment on the article – not on the abilities or credentials of the writer.

          I refer to my client list and results only to point out that’s all that really counts in the real world. Credentials get your foot in the door – but then you must prove you can actually help people and get results. I hire sports psyches and many find it difficult to make the transition from the classroom to the locker room – they are night and day.

          And, my point was clinical psychology is fixing problems. Working with athletes re High performance is coaching – identifying a gap and closing it. Traditional sport psychology can be one tool in closing that gap.

          Hope you keep reading and commenting!! Would love to hear your ideas on helping athletes offline.

          Cheers!

  4. emerson boozer

    Jun 1, 2016 at 4:34 am

    Great article. I happen to practice the day of the junior close open. In the parking lot was kids and their drivers (no kidding) and/or dads getting out all their new gear and own pull carts, etc…

    Then, the bus pulled up and all the kids who used the donated gear came running off yelling and screaming. The range was a zoo.

    I compete with our junior club champ on our travelling team and he came over and said hello. I asked him wasn’t it great to be able to play with his friends? He said he had no friends and liked playing with me (i’m 35 years older). The sadness on his face. My heart broke.

    He made full ride scholarship in the states and his father moved to the states off campus. I hate to think about it.

  5. Jon

    Jun 1, 2016 at 1:59 am

    Thanks for the article. It’s very much along the lines of those I’ve read before about sports parents, and with golf in particular, falls into the “early specialization leads to burnout and hinders potential” genre. The issue I have (sorry!) is that these all start with the basic premise that kids drop out of sports by the time they are 14 because their parents were overbearing (“no fun”), or the kid is burned out from too much of one sport. But those conclusions, upon which the entire rest of the articles are built upon, are Never backed up with any evidence or data. In my experience with junior golf (going on roughly 20 years), I can’t think of Any competitive golfers (those who had some dedication to the game) who quit the sport for either of these reasons. The very few that I know of that did stop did so because they wanted to play a different sport or spend more time on their academics. As a lifelong athlete, my observation is just the opposite – the biggest reason kids, and adults, drop out of golf is because they suck at it….sucking is no fun, regardless of your age. Playing well is tons of fun, regardless of your age. Playing decent golf is hard. It’s one of those sports where parents often play a critical role in helping their kids not suck. Whether it’s through teaching them or making sure they get appropriate instruction. My take is that I’d like to see articles written from that perspective and help parents be better golf parents (and coaches if that is their chosen role in the relationship). In short, parents who dedicate the time and energy it takes to develop or support the development of a junior golfer should be celebrated, not ostracized, unless you have some actual peer reviewed data that proves otherwise. Telling parents to “Get Out of the Way” …not the best way to begin the conversation.

    • John Haime

      Jun 1, 2016 at 1:30 pm

      Thanks for the comments Jon – appreciated. Interesting experience you have with young golfers.

      Give the National Sport Alliance a call and they will give you data and stats to support the numbers in the article. There are other youth sport groups that also have data.

      I understand your thoughts. My experience, working with young athletes everyday is I often hear that “mom and dad put too much pressure on me and it’s not fun.” It’s more prevalent than you might think. Often parents have a blindspot – think they are not applying pressure – but they are in the view of the child. As soon as that anxiety creeps in to the child’s experience – other options become more attractive. Wondering if you ever talked to the kids and asked them the REAL reasons why they left? In the article I am primarily referring to competitive kids who have some (or their parents have) some ambition for them to attain a level in the game.

      I completely agree that adults drop out of the game because of ability. That is an article for another day as many adults go in without a plan, have unrealistic expectations, underestimate the commitment needed to develop proficiency, get frustrated – and quit. But, in my experience, that is not the case with kids. If parents drop them off at the course and expose them to some good instruction, they typically become quite proficient at the game. As you know, kids pick up everything quicker than adults.

      As mentioned in the article. Every parent does not short circuit the experience for kids. But, the article is written to create awareness for parents who do.

      “Get out of the way” is direct, but the reality is the parents do get in the way of the experience. It’s important to ensure kids own their own sport experience and not have parental expectations and adult values hanging over them to prevent them from expressing themselves.

      The conversation re: team sports is different and much more complicated.

      • Raven

        Jun 1, 2016 at 5:22 pm

        Brilliant article – I agree that overbearing parents can make things less fun and push some kids away, but how realistic is this as being a significant reason? I recall my old Japanese karate sensei saying that most people left a sport either as a beginner, or when they reached a level where they were ready to become really good (often in their mid to late teens). Both levels required an extra step up in effort and also filtered out those who were simply not able to progress further. That sensei was also considered an authority in his field. So are these parents actually pushing their kids away, or just making it more appealing to leave at a particular time? Respectfully I completely agree that positive reinforcement will help those who do pursue a sport to a highly skilled level, and I don’t think hyper-focussed parachute parents are good for any child’s life development. I do however see kids leaving at certain competitive levels regardless of parent frustration level.

        • John Haime

          Jun 2, 2016 at 9:47 am

          Nice comments Raven.

          Yes, agree kids leave for a variety of reasons. But, sport has changed with highly competitive focuses in all sports. College scholarships and the huge opportunities have created a more hyper focus on results – by parents.

          Karate etc. may be a bit different from the traditional sports as the “end game” in activities like Karate do not normally lead to large payoffs like traditional sports softening the push and ownership from parents.

          Thanks again for the contribution to the conversation.

    • John Haime

      Jun 1, 2016 at 2:51 pm

      Hey Jon,

      Thanks for the comments – great to get different perspectives.

      A few thoughts …

      Give National Sport Alliance a call and you can gather the data. There are also other sources that the NSA can recommend.

      “Get out of the way” is direct – but exactly what parents must do to allow the kids to own their sport experience and fully express themselves. Parents do “get in the way” of the experience and take ownership themselves.

      Just wondering if you have talked to the kids and understood the REAL reasons they are leaving? Other sports and academics are convenient reasons and acceptable – but I think if you really spoke to the kids – you might find something different.

      Agree – adults quit because they find it too hard. They often don’t have a plan, expectations are too high, don’t realize the time commitment, get frustrated and may quit. But, kids pick it up easily – and if they have good coaching – I don’t see them leaving because it is too difficult.

      thanks again.

  6. Snoopy

    May 31, 2016 at 3:21 pm

    This is the most unshankable article around. Something great I’ve realized totally outside the context of competitive sports is that good performance can come with hard work, but GREAT performance comes when the work feels like fun. If you’re not having fun on the golf course, parent or player, you should probably find something more productive to do with your time.

    • John Haime

      May 31, 2016 at 4:44 pm

      Great comment Snoopy – exactly right. Enjoyment and passion are absolute requirements for great and sustainable performance.

      Thanks for contributing!

  7. Alan

    May 31, 2016 at 1:13 am

    Great article. As a parent myself of 2 young boys who play golf I see this happening a lot. I’ve had to learn to step away and let them get on with it without them worrying what my reaction will be as a result of a bad score or shot! Let them enjoy it and let them have the freedom to keep playing and enjoy themselves on the course!

  8. Bernard

    May 30, 2016 at 7:14 pm

    I have a son who plays AAU basketball, a lot of what is written here I wholeheartedly agree with. When my son is at practice, I hit the local range to work on golf, so I am there, 5-6 hours a week. I have seen several parent/kid sessions, where at practice the “adult” is hyper coaching and even berating a young kid. In all cases the kid looks miserable. When the fun is gone, the kid will follow it off the the course. I have expectations as a parent, they are work hard and have fun, I try to maintain those twin goals without alienating my child with result based expectations. Feed their passion, do not kill it with trophy dreams. The prize is a well adjusted kid who feels loved.

    • John Haime

      May 31, 2016 at 2:56 pm

      Yes – excellent comment Bernard – the article is transferable to all sports. I work in many sports now and see the behavior in all sports. Your last line really is the goal – hoping they also learn lessons from the games that are transferable later on.

      Thanks!

  9. 8thehardway

    May 30, 2016 at 9:37 am

    Don’t tell me how to manage my 9 y/o protege, she & I hustled my friends for 350 last weekend and it woulda been double if she made that last putt, but she’s developing the yips; she has got to learn to cope with cigar smoke and swearing if she’s gonna make competitive golf her life.

    Instead of listening to this garbage I subscribed to Byung-holio Wei’s newletter – expensive, he’s got the right perspective and I’m gonna spring for a brace for her blown out knee and some Adderall; Byung thinks they don’t drug test kids under 12 so that’s 3 more years of smooth sailing until I sign her up for the men’s John Deere Classic, and if she wins the tractor-pull and the golf tournament all the time I spent as her daddy/caddy, coach and manager will be worth it.

  10. KK

    May 30, 2016 at 12:37 am

    These parents are the definition of arrogance. If the kid is trying, that’s all you can ask. If the kid isn’t, he/she shouldn’t be playing anyway.

  11. WolfWRX

    May 29, 2016 at 9:08 pm

    Great article. I need to print this off and pin it on my fridge as a reminder to myself. Thank you.

  12. Nick

    May 29, 2016 at 6:58 pm

    Good advice- interestingly the best female golfers I work with are the ones this article is written towards.
    Best for the masses might not be best for the best.
    I also have doubts that this is the reason why 70% of kids stop playing organized sport. I stopped playing hockey and my parents were great. You don’t have to hate your parents to have other interests

  13. Nick

    May 29, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    There is some good advice here- interestingly the best female golfers I work with are the ones this article is written at.
    Best for the masses might not be best for the best.
    I also have doubts that this is the reason why 70% of kids stop playing organized sport. I stopped playing hockey and my parents were great. You don’t have to hate your parents to have other interests

    • John Haime

      May 30, 2016 at 2:17 pm

      Thanks for the comment Nick – good ones. Agree many parents are great and provide a nice environment for the kids to enjoy sports. And, there are many different reasons why kids move away from competitive sports – but when they stop having fun and get tired of the adult values – they are much quicker to turn their heads in other directions. Unfortunately, today, there is a likelihood that the parents own the kids’ sport experience – and not the kids who are playing them.

  14. CD

    May 29, 2016 at 2:34 pm

    “but we want to keep them playing so it becomes a lifetime interest and passion.”

    Why do we???? And if we want them to, and not them want to; then you’ve lost ‘your’ goal before you’ve started anyway.

    If people are really doing the points you listed above, don’t be surprised when little Jimmy discovers girls and motorbikes. Or gets a career. Or simply doesn’t want to hang around with dad who is playing a deeply uncool game.

    Having to consider, or reconsider any of these points says everything about the parent than the child. This is written in a competitive context; so it’s the parent that has the ego, the insecurity they were never good enough; and is trying to live their thwarted – and unrealistic – dreams vicariously. It’s just about the most selfish thing you can do; try and restrict someone’s freedom of choice and liberty.

    • John Haime

      May 30, 2016 at 2:01 pm

      Hey CD – thanks for the comments …

      Understand what you are saying.

      I think, simply, the goal is to give the kids the opportunity to fall in love with the game – and continue to pursue it. We all know the benefits of the game – and introducing adult values too early in the process can discourage kids away from the game. Agree, kids will leave the game for a variety of reasons, but there’s a much better chance they’ll keep playing if they own it themselves, they have fun and we allow them to discover the many benefits.

  15. M smizzy

    May 28, 2016 at 5:08 pm

    Italian sparkeling water with lime twist, Truffle fries cooked in duck fat, and a Kobe burger medium?

  16. Forsbrand

    May 28, 2016 at 1:06 pm

    I have watched some quite disgusting parents at junior coaching “Come on Caleb show them your Tiger stinger”. Yeh he’s 8 years old can barely swing the club!! Absolute mug of a parent and often a high handicapper trying to relive his youth through his child. T
    HE sort of guy you just wanna grab and shake!!

    Also you’ve got the father that always plays golf with his son in competitions, you know marks his card and low and behold the teenager shoots a super low score, 4 shots lower than the club champion could possibly shoot, yes folks the Magic Marker Brigade! They’ll do anything to get there son noticed / handicap down so they get in that college team.

    Leave kids alone, let them develop naturally, don’t force the issue, they might just be happy playing to a 28 handicap casually having fun!

  17. bart

    May 28, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    You’ve missed one big reason when diagnosing the “problem” of why kids leave sports in their teens: some kids would rather do something else. Music, art, culture, reading, work, being with friends, enjoying nature- there is so much else to do other than chase a ball around.

    So maybe the problem is that you think there is a problem with kids not playing sports?

    • John Haime

      May 28, 2016 at 1:01 pm

      Thanks Bart – agreed.

      But, I think you’ve missed part of the point of the article.

      If the kids are playing – there’s no reason why we can’t keep them playing with the right motivations. Kids want to have fun and they turn to the things you mention because often they are frustrated with golf/sport – it’s not fun anymore.

      Agree there are lots of things to do – but to keep kids playing – we have to provide the great environment. I think it’s great to encourage other interests – but we want to keep them playing so it becomes a lifetime interest and passion.

      Thanks for the comment!!

      • Rb

        May 29, 2016 at 10:34 am

        How about this: if the kids are good at it, they’ll play anyway. If they feel they’re good at something else and want to do that other thing – then the Parent is a douche for pushing it on the kid in all the wrong ways.

  18. M smizzy

    May 28, 2016 at 11:57 am

    Excellent article. Focusing on the positives and building a long term appreciation of the game and its ability to build
    Character and etiquette should be first priority for the youngsters. My best experiences have been whacking it around with friends and just enjoying the game and fellowship. These have also been some of my best rounds. Respect the challenges of
    The game.

    • John Haime

      May 28, 2016 at 1:05 pm

      Great comments smizzy – your point about the challenges of the game is a great one. So much to learn from golf – so we want to keep kids in the game and learn those lessons.

      I am all for encouraging kids to do other things and be well rounded – but pushing them out of the game at an early age really subtracts something that can bring them joy and value over a lifetime.

    • Bert

      May 29, 2016 at 8:18 am

      Great comments – I enjoy seeing kids playing golf with other kids.

      Just recently watched the NCAA Women’s National Championship and all I could think about was the coaches interfering with play. I kept thinking, “get the heck out of there and let the girl putt.” Coaches and parents are good for the sport as teachers, motivators and hopefully mentors, but when it comes time to play, let them play.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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