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Swanson: How to choose the 14 clubs in your bag

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Meet new GolfWRX Senior Expert on Everything, Swanson. We recently spotted him playing in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with Al Czervik, David Simms and the “Tiger Woods” from Dan Jenkins’ Golf Digest Interview. Swanson asked to write a few articles for GolfWRX’s Front Page. We told him if the readers like his stories, we’ll let him keep writing. If not, he’ll have to go back to trolling the forums. 

By far my least favorite part of playing tournament golf has always been deciding which 14 clubs to put in my bag, but I’ve learned a few tricks over the years.

During normal rounds of golf, I’ll have anywhere between 20-24 clubs in the bag; that includes drivers with different shafts, long irons (I don’t play fairway woods or hybrids), backup wedges and a few different Scotties.

Practice rounds are for testing equipment, not for playing by imaginary rules contrived by the USGA. But when it comes time to play in a USGA-sanctioned event, 14 clubs is the maximum they allow.

And this is a topic that really hits home for me.

You see, a few years back I qualified for the U.S. Senior Mid-Am Junior event in the second position after firing 71-68 (I hit 18 greens in regulation and had 44 putts in the first round), but a rules official saw I had 17 clubs in the bag after the event. I still have no idea how he saw the extra wedges hidden beneath my driver head cover, but I learned a lesson that day – the 14-club rule penalizes you two strokes for each hole played with more than 14 clubs, for a maximum of two holes. Safe to say, I didn’t qualify.

But now I’m an expert on selecting clubs for my tournament bag. And if chosen, they should be honored and thankful, and perform accordingly during the tournament. So do yourself a favor, print this out, put it in your bag and read it every time you’re deciding what clubs are going to make the cut for your next event.

Driver

Compile all of your driver heads and shafts, and head to your nearest Trackman facility. I have one in my basement, but you may need to go to a custom-fitting shop or a top teaching pro in your area. You don’t actually want a fitting or a lesson; you just want to rent the Trackman for an hour or two. Hit every driver head/shaft combination possible, and then print out a sheet of the averages.

Listen carefully, because this is the important part. You want to play the driver that has the lowest spin rate. No matter what. You can figure out how to launch it higher and make better contact (therefore increasing your ball speed) another time. I don’t hook or slice the ball, but if I did the low spin would help the ball curve less, and of course, it maximizes distance.

People say a 17-degree launch angle and 1700 rpm of spin is optimal, and I can do it every time with my forward-CG, low-MOI driver. You’re probably not good enough to play one, but maybe one day you will be. So buy the hottest low-spin driver every year on the off chance you start striping it one summer.

Editor’s Note: Swanson’s opinions on club fitting are his own, and don’t reflect the opinions of GolfWRX (at all).

Fairway Woods/Hybrids

Personally, I don’t use fairway woods or hybrids because:

  1. I don’t see the point.
  2. I don’t have yardage gaps big enough to need them.

I hit my driver 315 yards (on average), and carry my steel-shaft, hand-ground, muscleback 1-iron 275 yards. When would I hit a three wood or hybrid? From 290 yards into a par 5? And what par-5 in America would require me to hit a shot 290 yards on my approach?

None. The answer is none of the par 5s.

Irons/Driving irons

In making the decision on what long irons to carry, you’ll want to check the wind for the day, the par-3 distances and how many irons you’ll need off the tee on par-4s. I usually carry my 1, 2 and 3 irons during tournament play because it intimidates my competitors, and I can launch my 1-iron off the deck really high.

Most golfers will probably need to play irons that are more forgiving than the one-piece forgings I use, but you should test both. Blades are a huge advantage if you can play them, because they’re so much more workable and so much better in the rough.

Also, you may notice I use iron covers; you would too if your irons were hand ground from the same guy who forged Tiger’s Miura irons.

Wedges 

This is the trickiest part of the equation. In my current practice bag, I have eight wedges: 50 degrees (bent to 49.5), 54 (bent to 53.5), 54 (bent to 54.5), 56 (bent to 55.5), 56 (bent to 56.5), 60 (extra heel grind), 60 (v-grind) and a 63 (bent to 63.5).

I know how far every one of them flies to a dime, but predicting exactly what yardages I’ll need during a round used to be difficult for me. That’s why I started getting my hands on a yardage book of the tournament course, and picking my targets for each hole. Since I rarely miss my target, especially under tournament pressure, all I have to do is decide which wedges I’ll need most often. One time, through my preparation, I found out I wouldn’t need a club from 197-203 yards, so I didn’t need my 8-iron. I played with six wedges that event and won the National Ultra-Private Country Club Championship.

For beginners, I suggest letting your long iron/fairway wood/hybrid setups dictate the wedges you choose, and simply fill in the yardage gaps appropriately.

Putter 

I sleep with both of my Tour-Only Scotties the night before any event; one on my left side and one on my right. Whichever putter I wake up facing is the one that goes in the bag.

Choosing a golf ball 

Just kidding. They make other balls than a Pro V1x?

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Swanson doesn't exist, except in his writing. He doesn't play for score any more, as he's too busy working on his spin rates. For tournament purposes, he has a 2 handicap on file from high school golf, registered at his home club, which is only reachable by private watercraft.

53 Comments

53 Comments

  1. Tyler

    Apr 20, 2016 at 1:25 am

    Hilarious! Best part was the trackman in the basement. I guarantee someone on here convinced the wife to spend $20k on a trackman for the basement.

  2. Timbleking

    Apr 16, 2016 at 3:44 am

    Jiiiiiiiiiizzzzz ! Swanson, the 8 iron comment made my day! ROTFL!!!

  3. Jason

    Apr 15, 2016 at 11:42 am

    Coming out of the gates strong…I love it.

  4. Boomshaboom

    Apr 15, 2016 at 11:00 am

    Wow, God wrote an article about how to select your 14. Suprised he needs a putter.

  5. Cyd2293

    Mar 30, 2016 at 8:53 pm

    Great Article.

    Loved it.

    A little humor goes a long way.

  6. Martin

    Mar 28, 2016 at 2:15 pm

    Hi Swanson!
    I always support anyone who wants to be funny, and I think you did ok for the first time. BUT you have to train harder and score better if you wanna make the cut!!! 😉
    Good Luck!

  7. Mike Honcho

    Mar 21, 2016 at 1:37 pm

    So bad Spaulding Smails gave it a shank and two nose picks.

  8. Junior

    Mar 21, 2016 at 12:49 pm

    where can I get a set of those iron covers?

  9. northgolf

    Mar 21, 2016 at 11:11 am

    Effective satire requires actually being humorous. This is just old, tired, and worn out. Iron covers in the top photo was the highlight and it went downhill from there.

  10. insider

    Mar 21, 2016 at 9:45 am

    is this a stab at early ian poulter when he was a club pro?????????????

    • Mike Honcho

      Mar 21, 2016 at 1:38 pm

      Go easy or IJP will tweet (whine) about it to your employer and get you fired.

  11. nath

    Mar 21, 2016 at 7:33 am

    Back to the forums buddy, cmon, you have had your fun!
    The front page is no place for you.
    I’m glad I just wasted 15mins

  12. Jim

    Mar 21, 2016 at 5:19 am

    I learned nothing, finally.

  13. Steve

    Mar 19, 2016 at 3:39 pm

    What a dumb article, what was the point? To fill space? Sometimes less is more. Definately less of this guy

  14. Double Mocha Man

    Mar 19, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    Relax! The guy actually has a 17 handicap and is trying to be funny. Though I did appreciate the part about all his wedges… I carry 5 of ’em in a 14 club bag. Inevitably, the one I want to use is hidden from sight under the other wedges. This a Murphey’s Law, even if the wedge is the longest of the bunch.

    The red booties for his irons in the photograph should have been a dead giveaway.

  15. Mill Fickelson

    Mar 19, 2016 at 6:13 am

    Wow “Dufner” do you even know how to read? You must be from the south if you don’t understand satire!

    Ps- nothing funnier than internet outrage, relax everyone it’s just an article and it accurately depicts 99.9% of you

  16. ryan

    Mar 19, 2016 at 3:14 am

    those who are butt-hurt from this article probably just realized that it’s about people like them and how ridiculous they can be. A+

  17. Jim

    Mar 19, 2016 at 1:29 am

    This could have been a funny article if it had been done correctly. The manner in which it was written and came out, was lacking and wasn’t funny at all. The only slightly amusing part was the wedges bent by like .3 degrees. Other than that, a waste of what could have been a really funny article.

    • Cptdot

      Mar 19, 2016 at 2:31 pm

      10000% agree.. Beat it Swanson

      • paul

        Mar 19, 2016 at 11:20 pm

        i have to admit i laughed out loud when i read this article. all parts of it are funny even the disclaimer from Golfwrx . made my day

  18. DB

    Mar 19, 2016 at 12:03 am

    I haven’t read such a good laugh in a while. I would swear I know this guy in real life. hahahaha, Keep the articles coming!!!

  19. Marc

    Mar 18, 2016 at 8:41 pm

    Loved the wedge lofts .

  20. RHJazz

    Mar 18, 2016 at 8:40 pm

    Serious or satire? It’s a fine, line to get right. Problem I had with this is, for some it’s kind of true – over thinking one’s needs and ability and the elitist attitude of some narcissistic players we may actually encounter. For others, it’s just rubbish and so fantastical it almost makes no sense. Good try with high level of difficulty, but failed to stick the landing. I’d judge it “m’eh.”

  21. Kevin Hawkins

    Mar 18, 2016 at 7:41 pm

    Waste of time reading this. It wasn’t even funny.

  22. Kyle

    Mar 18, 2016 at 6:53 pm

    This is probably the best article I have ever read on this site.

    The funny part is that I opened it actually looking for some good advice.

  23. JustTrying2BAwesome

    Mar 18, 2016 at 6:38 pm

    Hahaha this was great. Thank you.

  24. EO

    Mar 18, 2016 at 5:32 pm

    The article made me chuckle, the replies gave me a nice belly laugh. Funny article. Of course it’s pointless.

  25. JustPlainCarpe

    Mar 18, 2016 at 4:57 pm

    Hilarious!

  26. Nolanski

    Mar 18, 2016 at 4:44 pm

    Lol! I about lost it after the muscleback 1 iron part. You shoulda said something like “I have my putter shafts pured weekly”. Keep em coming.

  27. Tom

    Mar 18, 2016 at 4:39 pm

    “I sleep with both of my Tour-Only Scotties the night before any event; one on my left side and one on my right. Whichever putter I wake up facing is the one that goes in the bag.” Some golfwrxer’s should try this with their Scotties.

  28. Tom

    Mar 18, 2016 at 4:34 pm

    6 wedges..ROFLMAO….ya got me.

  29. Scooter McGavin

    Mar 18, 2016 at 3:55 pm

    Wow, this was dumb. I’m sad I wasted my time reading it. If you’re going to post something meant to be funny and satirical, at least make sure it’s actually funny.

  30. Bishop

    Mar 18, 2016 at 3:17 pm

    If you didn’t realize this was a satire by the second paragraph “During normal rounds of golf, I’ll have anywhere between 20-24 clubs in the bag; that includes drivers with different shafts…” you may want to lighten up a bit. If you have 20-24 clubs in your bag at one time, you deserve to have to carry your bag 18 holes once per year…. This was funny, albeit a waste of 10 minutes…

  31. Birdie?

    Mar 18, 2016 at 2:14 pm

    April 1st isn’t for another 2 weeks or so. WTactualF

  32. RG

    Mar 18, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    What a loser! 8 wedges? I don’t carry a wedge because I never miss a green and I can reach any par 5 with a 2 iron or less. I haven’t been in a bunker since Clinton was in office. Heck 50% of the time I don’t need a putter, I just tap in with whatever club is in my hand. I know your thinking “Why isn’t this guy on tour?” My answer is to much travel, not enough prize money.

  33. Random Reader

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    Ha! Good for a smile.

  34. Marc G

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:45 pm

    Worst article I’ve read here

  35. Philip

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:42 pm

    Too funny! However, can you now write a proper version of the article that gives up a nugget or two? Or are you hoarding those for yourself?

  36. ca1879

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:40 pm

    Oh my… some of the comments. I am now certain that it’s impossible to write a satire that’s too obvious.

  37. Wow123

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:34 pm

    Funny! But that is because I speak sarcasm.

  38. Clowone

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    1st of April is soon this year..

  39. Weekend Duffer

    Mar 18, 2016 at 1:16 pm

    GolfWRX – The article

  40. michael johnson

    Mar 18, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    this is the most pointless article ever. it is not a good troll, it is not funny and it is uniformative. booh!

  41. mvandy

    Mar 18, 2016 at 12:34 pm

    This is a joke right? wtf is this

  42. duffer

    Mar 18, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    Wow. Send this guy back to trolling. This article was just a forum for him to brag about how he can hit a 1-iron unlike us mere mortals. Completely useless article if you are a normal human being who hits their driver 230 like 95% of us. Get off your high horse buddy! Write an article this isn’t all about how great you are.

    • Mike

      Mar 18, 2016 at 1:49 pm

      You do realize it was a tongue-in-cheek article, right?

      • mhendon

        Mar 18, 2016 at 8:24 pm

        Lol and someone thought this was serious

  43. Greg V

    Mar 18, 2016 at 12:12 pm

    I can’t believe I read the whole thing.

  44. Satire

    Mar 18, 2016 at 12:02 pm

    Enjoyable

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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