Opinion & Analysis

A Statistical Analysis of 2016 U.S. Ryder Cup Prospects

Published

8 years ago

Mar 29, 2016

With the PGA Tour’s season one-third of the way complete, I wanted to examine the potential Ryder Cup players for the U.S. Team and see how they are performing.

Agent to the European stars, Chubby Chandler, recently discussed how the European Team used advanced analytics to its advantage in winning the last Ryder Cup. Future analysis will dive more into optimal pairings based on the data. But for now, I will examine individual performances and keep in mind that the data shows that players with good short games tend to make the better performers in the Ryder Cup.

Jordan Spieth is not as sharp as he was at this time last year, but it’s mainly due to his iron play. Typically, Spieth’s iron play has been stronger than his driving, but this year it’s more of the opposite.

Bubba Watson has already won this year at Riviera. And performance at Riviera tends to have a correlation to performance at The Masters. While Bubba has driven the ball great, it’s been a down year by his standards, because he typically blows out the rest of the Tour when it comes to Driving Effectiveness in the first third of the season. Like Spieth, he’s still a fantastic performer, but he’s not quite hitting the lick by his standards.

Dustin Johnson’s problem has been consistency with the driver. When he’s on, he looks like the reincarnation of Jack Nicklaus off the tee. But when he’s off, he’s well off. I wonder if trying to round out the other parts of his game that have been traditionally weak (Green Zone Play and Short Game Play) has caused him to spend less time working on his driving. With that being said, if his Short Game Play legitimately improves he will be a better Ryder Cup player. Right now, he’s a more well-rounded golfer than he has ever been in his career.

What prevents Rickie Fowler from being a clearly established member of The Big Four is he cannot quite put everything together. He has great strengths, but usually has one outstanding weakness that prevents him from winning more often. This season it has been Yellow Zone Play, which is mostly due to him being the 2nd worst player from 125-150 yards on Tour. However, he has also improved his short game by leaps and bounds, and that will likely make him a more effective Ryder Cupper. And in the grand scheme of things, poor performance from 125-150 yards is not a big factor on the PGA Tour, since so few shots are hit from that distance per round.

Brandt Snedeker has been hot or cold this season. It’s likely that he will still secure a Ryder Cup spot, but he may be a difficult player to use in the Foursomes (alternate shot) format because his Driving and Red Zone Play has been poor.

Typically, Snedeker has been a serviceable driver of the ball. His Red Zone Play has been a weak spot, but he makes it up with his performance from 175 yards and in. The key in using Snedeker in the Foursomes format would be to find a player who is a good iron player, particular from out of the rough, and has a good short game to counter Snedeker’s weaknesses off the tee and from the Red Zone. Otherwise, he looks like he should be reserved to playing in the Four-Ball (best score) format.

He’s not your Father’s Phil Mickelson this season. He’s actually hit the driver quite effectively off the tee, but has been an above average iron player overall. This may make him a better teammate in the Foursome format, which has never been Lefty’s strength in the Ryder Cup. And having the versatility to play either format makes for better odds of the U.S. snapping the losing streak.

Zach Johnson has had a sub-standard season (for him) thus far, and it shows with his rankings in the performance metrics. And he just turned 40, which is when most Tour players start to make a large regression in performance. Thus, he could turn into a player who does not even make the top-12 in the Ryder Cup standings when all is said and done. However, Johnson has been a solid Ryder Cup player, and when he’s playing reasonably well he has a game that is a good fit for the Ryder Cup. I would not count Johnson out for the rest of the season, and even so, I would be more apt to want him to be a captain’s pick if available. He just had a good finish at Bay Hill and made it to the Round of 16 in the WGC-Dell Match Play, so he may start hitting his stride soon.

I learned a while ago that it’s an exercise in futility in examining Patrick Reed’s metrics for the entire season. Simply put, if he is playing average or less than average by Friday, he seems to tune out for the rest of the event and that kills his metrics. But if he starts getting into contention by Friday, he can perform with the best of them.

The good news is that Reed’s Driving Effectiveness is better than it has been over the years. And if there has been a clearly defined strength to Reed’s game, it has been his putting and his short game, which make him a great teammate to have in both the Foursomes and Four-Ball formats.

Bill Haas projects to being a great Ryder Cupper because he is normally a great driver and short-game performer, although he struggles a bit with the irons and is inconsistent with the putter. Still, he can be valuable because of his short game and his driving.

The U.S. has struggled mostly in the Foursomes format, and Haas makes for a better Foursomes performer than a Four-Ball performer (he’s only average in Birdie Percentage). Haas may be best paired with a good ball striker: someone who hits the driver well enough to make his iron shots easier, and somebody who can hit the irons close enough to take advantage of his driving. Haas’ partner can be confident enough to know that if he misses an approach shot, Haas’ short game is good enough to save par.

It will be interesting to see if Haas’ driving comes around as the season progresses. If it does, he could be in for a quality season, and based off his President’s Cup performance, he could be a great Captain’s pick.

Last year, Brooks Koepka was a great driver of the ball who hit it massively long and was also a great putter. That’s a great combination, because power off the tee has its greatest impact on putting. That’s why long hitters can be successful on the PGA Tour despite being weak putters. And when you have a player as long as Koepka off the tee, who also putts well, he can easily rack up wins.

This season, Koepka just has yet to strike the ball well for any length of time, and has also not been a good short-game performer. I still would not mind seeing him on the team, though.

One of my favorite teams was the 2008 U.S. Ryder Cup squad, when Paul Azinger paired J.B. Holmes with Boo Weekley in the Four-Ball format. Weekly hits it fairly long, and was one of the best drivers on Tour at the time. He would tee off first and would continually hit 300-yard drives right down the middle. Once Weekley hit his drive and was fine, Holmes would step up to the tee and swing for the fences. Holmes routinely hit 375+ yard drives, so if his drive was playable it was a huge advantage for the U.S. Team. And with Weekley’s excellent driving, the pair had almost nothing to lose.

I can see Koepka taking over J.B. Holmes’ role and being more effective, because he’s a much better putter than Holmes.

Jason Dufner’s game over the years has been that of an excellent driver of the ball, an average iron player and a great short-game player who struggles with his putter. This still makes him a quality Ryder Cup prospect, because the team can use a player who drives it well and has a great short game in the Foursome format. And Dufner makes enough birdies to be effective in the Four-Ball format.

This season Dufner’s short game has regressed, although he has not played in a lot of events and that could change quickly. His iron play has improved a little and his driving has slightly regressed.

At this point, I think Kevin Kisner is a player that U.S. Ryder Cup team must have. He does everything fairly well, he’s young, he has a better-than-average short game for his career and makes a lot of birdies (5th). He should be able to perform well in both the Four-Ball and Foursomes formats. If he doesn’t in this year’s Ryder Cup, he projects to be a valuable prospect in future Ryder Cups, and therefore could use the experience.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

2 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

2 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

6 days ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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