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The 7 most overvalued players at the 2015 CIMB Classic

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The PGA Tour’s 2015-2016 season continues this week at the 2015 CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As you probably already know, that means DraftKings weekly fantasy golf returns to test your mettle and skill!

Enter the $125K contest here!

In this week’s fantasy contest, $125,000 is on the line with $10,000 in winnings for the steadfast champion. A few of the best professional golfers on Earth are headed to Southeast Asia; do not miss out on the chance to play and win, especially since I am here to help you make your picks, and who to avoid.

The Course

golfsavers.com

golfsavers.com

Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club, which is located in the capital city of Malaysia, measures 6,951 yards in length, plays to a tournament par of 72. The course originally opened in 1991 and was subject to a complete re-design finished in 2008. Ryan Moore is returning as two-time defending champion and he will compete against a strong field that includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, and Henrik Stenson. The CIMB Classic is the third event for the 2015-2016 season on the PGA Tour; an already unique season that has thus far seen two rookies in Emiliano Grillo and Smylie Kaufman win.

Below are the players I believe to be overvalued this week at the 2015 CIMB Classic.

Matt Every ($6,400)

MattEvery

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 182nd
  • Ball-Striking: 182nd
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 172nd — 35.53%
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 178th — 1.107(-)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: T86 — 0.077
  • Official World Golf Ranking: 94th

Admittedly, Every is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, having won the Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) in both 2014 and 2015. Further, he participated last year in Kuala Lumpur, finishing T49 in this particular no cut event. Apart from his victory at Bay Hill back in March, however, Every posted no other top-10s and only posted one additional top-25 at the RBC Heritage in April 2015.

In 2014-2015, he missed 10 cuts overall, withdrew three times, and after Every’s win at the 2015 API, he either missed the cut or WD in 11 of his final 16 events of last season. Even with only four players this week that cost less, Every’s recent play and statistics overall from last season do not warrant spending $6,400 to put him on your roster at the CIMB Classic. Every started this 2015-2016 season by withdrawing at the Frys.com Open after an opening 76.

Chesson Hadley ($6,500)

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: T108
  • Ball-Striking: 163rd
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 114th — 40.74%
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 163rd
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 62nd — 0.169
  • Official World Golf Ranking: 178th

Hadley is a former PGA Tour winner, having won the 2014 Puerto Rico Open, but last season did not post a top-10 beyond April when he finished T8 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Further, in his final three events of last season, Hadley missed two cuts and finished 74th at the Deutsche Bank Championship, which is a no cut event.

With two events already logged in 2015-2016 on the PGA Tour, Hadley missed the cut at the Frys.com Open and finished T62 last week at the Shriners Hospitals for Childrens Open, making the weekend right on the cut line. Statistically, Hadley’s struggles in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green suggest an inability to realistically contend for a title this week in Kuala Lumpur. Best case scenario would be a top-25, but Hadley finished T65 last year at this same event.

Padraig Harrington ($6,800)

Padraig

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 179th
  • Ball-Striking: 180th
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 148th — 38.62%
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 141st — 0.358(-)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 162nd — 0.492(-)
  • Official World Golf Ranking: 125th

Harrington is not only a winner last season on the PGA Tour at The Honda Classic, having beat Rookie of the Year, Daniel Berger, in a playoff, but a three-time major winner (2007/2008 Open Championship and 2008 PGA Championship). Despite an incredible professional career, at age 44, Harrington is a constant liability on PGA Tour greens, regardless of speed or type of grass, and suffers long bouts of inconsistency with his ball-striking, all of which is evidenced by last season’s statistics.

Even with a PGA Tour win in 2014-2015, Harrington missed 12 out of 21 cuts (including, 7 of 12 after his win in Florida), and only posted one other top-25 (T20) at the Open Championship at St. Andrews. He has yet to play in 2015-2016, but despite a modest price tag, there seems to be virtually no chance, Harrington will post a top-10, let alone find his way to such an unlikely victory.

Ryo Ishikawa ($6,900)

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: T78
  • Ball-Striking: 135th
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 92nd — 42.35%
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 100th — 0.009
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 133rd — 0.103(-)
  • Official World Golf Ranking: 165th

Ishikawa was once-labeled as “can’t miss,” and while his success at the professional level in his native Japan with 12 official wins is not in doubt, he has consistently struggled on the PGA Tour. Last season, he posted just two top-10s with the latter coming back in August at the Quicken Loans National (QLN). In 22 overall events, Ishikawa missed 11 cuts and finished 122nd in the final FedExCup rankings.

Be aware that Ishikawa posted one of his stronger finishes at the CIMB Classic last year, having finished T26. Notwithstanding that fact, since his T8 at The Players Championship back in May 2015, Ishikawa missed five cuts and only posted two top-25s in 13 events (one being the aforementioned finish at QLN). With the likes of Alex Cejka (T2), Rory Sabbatini (T25), and Chad Campbell (T8) available at similar cost after strong play last week in Las Vegas, strongly consider someone other than Ishikawa.

Keegan Bradley ($7,900)

Twitter

Twitter

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 38th
  • Ball-Striking: T21
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 6th — 50.74%
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 14th — 1.022
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 126th — 0.070(-)
  • Official World Golf Ranking: 59th

Bradley is a well-known PGA Tour personality and three-time winner, including the 2011 PGA Championship, but has failed to notch a victory since August 2012. Earlier this calendar year, Bradley made the switch from his belly putter, a constant companion since his rookie year on the PGA Tour, in anticipation of the anchoring ban going into effect on Jan. 1, 2016. To that end, Bradley’s game has seemingly been trending down as compared to other younger players, like that of Rory McIlroy and Jason Day.

Further, despite missing just four cuts in 24 events in 2014-2015, Bradley only posted three top-10s with his last top-10 coming back in June 2015 at the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. Bradley opened his 2015-2016 campaign last week in Las Vegas and missed the cut by three shots. At what may seem like a bargain price, instead consider players like Nick Watney (T11), Cameron Tringale (T2), and Kevin Kisner (T25), all of whom not only made the cut, but finished in the top-25.

Adam Scott ($9,700)

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 26th
  • Ball-Striking: 8th
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 21st — 47.97%
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 35th — 0.601
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 158th — 0.396(-)
  • Official World Golf Ranking: 16th

Scott is a former Masters winner (2013), No. 1-ranked player in the world, and 11-time PGA Tour winner. While his ball-striking numbers demonstrate that Scott’s golf swing remains textbook, his struggles on PGA Tour greens are well-documented. Further, Scott recently made the switch from a broom-stick putting style, a form of soon-to-be illegal anchoring, to a regulation length putter.

One cannot deny Scott’s success with the short putter on the final day of the 2015 Presidents Cup beating Rickie Fowler 6 and 5, but that appears, by all accounts, to the exception and not the rule. Last season, Scott did, in fact, make 20 out of 24 cuts on the PGA Tour, but only posted three top-10s, finishing 106th in the final FedExCup rankings. At $9,700, Scott is the ninth highest salary for the CIMB Classic. Rather than Scott, add two-time defending champion, Ryan Moore, or young studs, Patrick Reed and Justin Thomas to your roster and spend your money wisely.

Sergio Garcia ($10,700)

Sergio

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 32nd
  • Ball-Striking: 41st
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 40th — 45.45%
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 12th — 1.061
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 112th — 0.016(-)
  • Official World Golf Ranking: 11th

A popular villain in the United States, as far as PGA Tour players go, for his ongoing success at the Ryder Cup and other comments of the past, Garcia has a total of eight wins on that tour and over $40 million in career earnings. Irrespective of his success, Garcia has not won on the PGA Tour since 2012, having finished runner-up twice last season, including, in Kuala Lumpur at the CIMB Classic.

Undoubtedly, Garcia will land on many fantasy insider “must-pick” lists for this week because of that finish, but his cost, as compared to his lack of recent success and frequent inability to close, fail to justify Garcia’s selection. Garcia’s greatest PGA Tour triumph came in 2008 at The Players Championship, shortly after some heartbreaking losses at professional majors. He is far removed from that resounding and seemingly rehabilitative success, but Garcia’s consistent putting woes coupled with better bets like Kevin Na and Hideki Matsuyama for similar cost, make him an investment to avoid.

Don’t forget to enter the $125K contest here!

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. marcel

    Oct 29, 2015 at 8:44 pm

    Sergio does not count – he is not a golf player

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