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The 7 most underrated players at the Deutsche Bank Championship

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The Deutsche Bank Championship hosts the second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs this week, and DraftKings is holding a monster contest — a $450,000 purse with $100K going to the winner.

And if you haven’t signed up for DraftKings in the past, the contest is free with your first deposit. Translation: New users have a FREE run at $100,000.

Click here to enter.

Cash prizes are awarded up to 37,705th place. And with the help of my picks this week, there should be no reason why you can’t win some money while enjoying the Playoff excitement.

Check out my picks and analysis below, and don’t forget to enter.

The Course

www.tpc.com

www.tpc.com

TPC Boston plays in excess of 7,200 yards and plays to a par-71 for the event. Originally designed by Arnold Palmer and later re-designed in 2007 by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon (as consultant), it is not the typical TPC network golf course.

With reachable par-5s and 100 of the best players in the world working their way around this course, low scores have been standard fare. On average, the winning score has been 17.92 under par over the tournament’s 12-year history, which equates to an 18-hole stroke average of 66.52. In other words, players have to bring their “A” game.

Vijay Singh (2008), Charley Hoffman (2010), and Henrik Stenson (2013) won shooting 22-under par (262), representing the lowest 72-hole winning score for this tournament. There is nothing to suggest at this year’s tournament, given play to date on the PGA Tour in 2014-2015, that it will be anything other than a shoot-out this Labor Day weekend once again.

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My 7 underrated players

Will Wilcox ($6,800): WD Injury

  • FedExCup Ranking: 88th
  • All-Around Ranking: 202 (1st)
  • Ball Striking: 6 (2nd)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 0.843 (21st)

His FedExCup Ranking is definitely misleading, as Wilcox has not only proved he belongs, but that he has a well-rounded game at the PGA Tour level. He missed the cut last week at The Barclays after an opening 67, but that should only serve to motivate Wilcox this week as he is in the bubble group at No. 88. Wilcox has also demonstrated solid putting and an ability to score in 2014-2015. The biggest question may be whether TPC Boston fits his eye. Wilcox undoubtedly will play with motivation and provides mid-range value at $6,800.

Charley Hoffman ($7,100)

Photo credit: Twitter

Photo credit: Twitter

  • FedExCup Ranking: 17th
  • All-Around Ranking: 577 (43rd)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — .200 (80th)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 45.15 percent (T-48th)

A close look at his on-course statistics will not necessarily do justice relative to the season that Hoffman is having this year. One win, two second-place finishes, six top-10s and 10 top-25s amount to a current ranking of 17th in FedExCup points, all of which demonstrate strong play overall. Hoffman is also a former winner of the Deutsche Bank Championship (2010) and holds a share of the tournament scoring record of 262 (22-under), as noted above.

Notably, Hoffman tends to get hot and stay hot for periods of play and if that happens this week, the $7,100 it takes to get him on your roster is a drop in the bucket. His prior win and experience will certainly serve him well this year at TPC Boston.

Jason Bohn ($7,300)

  • FedExCup Ranking: 24th
  • All-Around Ranking: 516 (26th)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting — 0.366 (27th)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 0.616 (34th)

Bohn is coming off a solid week at The Barclays in which he finished T-9th. He is a savvy veteran, who makes cuts (20 out of 25 this year) and is no stranger to top-25 finishes (11 in 2014-2015). More importantly, Bohn brings a solid 1-2 punch of tee-to-green play and strong, consistent putting. Bohn’s par-5 scoring is not as strong as one might hope, but his cap value of $7,300 is well worth the price of admission. He is also playing for something rare in his career — a spot in the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola, which may be motivation enough. Bohn will likely solidify his place at East Lake Golf Club for the FedExCup finale with an above average finish this week.

Kevin Kisner ($7,300)

  • FedExCup Ranking: 13th
  • Ball Striking: 108 (T-46th)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting — 0.312 (T-41st)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 0.508 (43rd)

As far as this year is concerned, Kisner will likely be best remembered for his epic battle with Rickie Fowler at The Players Championship, as well as playoff loss to Jim Furyk at the RBC Heritage. His final round play at both events firmly demonstrated that he was ready for the big stage. Kisner’s on-course statistics are not likely to blow anyone away, but are incredibly consistent, suggesting an excellent week of putting will put him firmly in the mix. His $3 million plus in earnings this season reveal Kisner’s tendency to get paid and at a minimal investment of $7,100, so he fits nicely into a well-balanced lineup.

This year’s close calls for Kisner have certainly provided critical experience to a player with the ability to go low. He’s on the verge of winning soon, and this might be his week.

Jason Dufner ($7,600)

JasonDufner

Photo credit: Twitter

  • FedExCup Ranking: 81st
  • All-Around Ranking: 655 (63rd)
  • Ball Striking: 70 (25th)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 0.946 (19th)

It has been a tough year in many respects for Dufner; personally and professionally. Yet, he has persevered and seems to be rounding into decent from over the latter part of this summer. Early last Saturday at The Barclays, he was on fire with his putter on incredibly difficult greens suggesting low numbers are again an everyday possibility. Remember, he is a recent major champion (2013 PGA Championship) and still superb from tee-to-green (even in this otherwise off year), which is genuinely supported by the numbers. Dufner warrants serious consideration as moderately priced, but armed with the pedigree and ability to win.

Tony Finau ($7,700)

  • FedExCup Ranking: 32nd
  • All-Around Ranking: 539 (T31st)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 0.739 (29th)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 49.68 percent (17th)

Finau’s play over the summer is finally generating the buzz and providing him with the credit that he deserves as a rookie on the PGA Tour this season. His most impressive statistic may be 16 top-25 finishes in 29 events, including last week at The Barclays. TPC Boston has historically favored the long hitter and long hitters covet par 5s, which suggests Finau will threaten to contend with even a modest week on the greens. Finau won’t break the bank, and could offer tremendous return with a win this week — and winning isn’t far-fetched for this bomber.

Justin Thomas ($7,900)

  • FedExCup Ranking: 30th
  • All-Around Ranking: 313 (7th)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 0.963 (18th)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 57.05 percent (1st)

Thomas is on the verge of officially breaking out. He’s had flashes of brilliance throughout this past summer at, among other events, the Wells Fargo Championship and The Greenbrier Classic. At TPC Boston, even though Thomas represents the largest cap hit on this list of PGA Tour players, he is absolutely worth the extra cash. He leads the Tour in par-5 birdies, which will be an asset in this week’s par-5 birdie fest. Also, his overall statistics (par 5s aside), suggest a well-rounded, high-caliber player. Further, Thomas has made 21-of-28 cuts this year, so the percentages say he will be playing the weekend at TPC Boston, even if he doesn’t have his “A” game — a safe pick with tremendous upside.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Steve

    Sep 6, 2015 at 7:26 pm

    Arent we bored yet with the same repeated articles over and over?

  2. Forsbrand

    Sep 1, 2015 at 3:31 pm

    Great selections!!! FINAU YES!!! At last he really is a cracking player. Expect big things from him next year if not this year end?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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