Opinion & Analysis

A statistical analysis of what makes Jordan Spieth great

Published

9 years ago

Jun 30, 2015

This story was selected as one of the 15 best GolfWRX stories of 2015!

With Jordan Spieth winning the first two majors of the year, I am often asked, “What makes him so good?” Spieth’s game seems to puzzle most people as I have had several Tour clients, some of whom have played with Spieth, ask me that question as well. And the typical commentary from announcers and analysts is to the effect of “He’s not great at anything, but he’s not weak at any part of the game either.”

I wanted to give a thorough analysis of Spieth’s 2014-15 season and see what exactly makes the potential Grand Slam winner so good.

For starters, let’s take a look at his scoring metrics (rankings based out of 202 golfers).

The most important statistic with regards to Tour success is Adjusted Scoring Average. Spieth has the lowest Adjusted Scoring Average on Tour. As far as Adjusted Scoring Average goes, Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average has the strongest correlation of any of the other scoring metrics. In essence, we can see that Spieth’s success is not smoke and mirrors. His weakest scoring metrics is the Adjusted Par-5 Scoring Average where he still ranks 11th. And he does not rank higher most likely due to him not being a bomber off the tee. But, he is still an exceptional player on the par-5’s. Spieth simply makes a ton of birdies and pars and very few bogeys.

Remember when critics said last year that Spieth was “choking” on the weekends? That’s certainly not the case anymore. But the real key to these scoring metrics is his performance in the first two rounds. When it comes to a correlation to total Adjusted Scoring Average, Rounds 1 and 2 have the strongest correlation to Total Adjusted Scoring Average. Rounds 3 and 4 have a significant drop-off in their correlation to a Tour player’s success. As I’ve mentioned many times before, the real “moving day” on Tour occurs on Thursday and Friday and not on Saturday. But, what Spieth does so well is he continues to score better than the field average on the weekend and progresses up the leaderboard or extends his lead.

Driving Metrics

Driving Effectiveness is based on distance (all drives), hit fairway percentage, average distance to the edge of the fairway, hit fairway bunker percentage and missed fairway – other percentage. It is also based on the level of difficulty of the courses the golfer has played. For instance, if two golfers each average hitting 290 yards off the tee, but Player A is playing courses where the average distance is 275 yards off the tee and Player B is playing courses where the average distance is 295 yards off the tee, Player A is actually much longer off the tee than Player B as the average is the baseline to serve the comparison.

Last season, Spieth ranked 88th in Driving Effectiveness. He had issues with his driver head cracking and not being satisfied with the replacement. We can see that by his Hit Fairway Bunker Percentage and Missed Fairway – Other Percentage that he still has some occasional issues off the tee. Last year he was fourth in Tee Shot Aggressiveness which measures how often a player is laying up off the tee. This year he is still quite aggressive, but not nearly as he was last season and perhaps last season’s regression off the tee had something to do with it.

We are in the infancy stages of understanding performance on straightaway versus dogleg par-4s, but it appears that driving ability and curvature of ball flight has something to do with it. Spieth’s performance on dogleg lefts indicate that he prefers to hit a little draw. And his small dip in performance on straight away par-4s indicates that some occasionally errant tee shots pop up from time to time. But overall, he’s still an elite driver of the ball.

The radar metrics above indicate an upward strike. Based on previous data acquired, I would say that Spieth’s attack angle when he is playing in an event is probably in the +1.5 degree to +2.5 degree range.

This is critical to understand because if his attack angle was flat (0 degrees) he would likely have the same ranking in driving distance (using traditional driving distance measurement of two drives per round) that he has in club head speed (97th). Instead, he ranks 72nd in the traditional driving distance measurement which more accurately reflects how far he hits the ball when he has the driver in his hands. But, since he is aggressive off the tee and does not leave the driver in the bag very often, he is effectively the 42nd-longest player on Tour despite ranking 97th in club head speed.

There are two other key radar metrics that need to be mentioned. For starters, he hits the ball high. All other things being equal, the numbers have shown over the years that the player that hits it higher on Tour will tend to be more successful. The other is that he generates an adequate spin rate with the driver. Typically the leaders in Driving Effectiveness each year generate roughly 2,400 to 2,800 rpm Spin Rate. While everybody wants high launch and low spin, on Tour there is a negative effect from not generating enough spin with the driver. Lastly, Spieth’s miss bias is 54.7 percent to the right. The most effective drivers of the ball tend to have their miss bias within a 55/45 range.

Approach Shot Metrics

I break the approach shot distances into zones. Here are the zones ranked in order of strongest to weakest correlation to Tour success:

Red Zone (175-225 yards)
Yellow Zone (125-175 yards)
Green Zone (75-125 yards)
225-275 Yards Zone

For Tour players, the typical Tour event will usually place emphasis on approach shots from 150-200 yards or 175-225 yards. When we start to get into the majors is when we see more of an emphasis on shots from 175-250 yards. As we can see, Spieth is quite strong from every Approach Shot Zone. It is unique that he performs better from the Red Zone and Green Zone than he does from the Yellow Zone. When that happens, that is usually an indicator that golfer’s driver can go awry on occasion and he is having to hit those Yellow Zone shots from more difficult positions and from more difficult lies.

The metrics above show that Jordan’s approach shot game is not smoke and mirrors. He’s exception from the fairway and the best on Tour from the rough. He has gone for par-5s in two shots 57.53 percent of the time. My calculations based on past 10 seasons of PGA Tour data show that a player of his distance off the tee should be going for par-5s roughly 57 percent of the time. So, Spieth is right on the money with his level of aggressiveness on the par-5s.

Short Game Metrics

The Short Game is where Spieth has improved the most since becoming a professional. He had a good short game in his previous two seasons on Tour, but now it is arguably the best on Tour. Combine that with his iron play which I think is the best part of his game, he’s going to make it very hard for him to make any bogeys. He’s simply hitting too many greens, leaving himself with a lot of makeable birdie putts and when he does miss on the approach, he has the short game to hit it close and almost guarantee the par save.

Putting Metrics

Here is where I find Spieth’s game very interesting. Overall, he’s a decent putter from 5-15 feet, but he’s elite from 15-plus feet. Normally, Tour players do not sustain their ranking in make percentage on putts outside 15 feet for very long. Regardless of their skill level with the putter, most Tour players tend to make a lot of putts outside 15-feet one season, then regress towards the mean the next season. Conversely, they may struggle to make putts from outside 15-feet one season and then progress towards the mean the following season.

The other interesting facet is that usually the putts from outside 15+ feet are birdie putts. But, when we break down Spieth’s putts from 5 to 15 feet between birdie and par+ putts, he is a mediocre birdie putter from that range and one of the very best par putters from that range.

The trend is that good birdie putters tend to have a very aggressive speed and the good par putters tend to be more conservative with their speed. So these numbers indicate that Spieth is aggressive with his speed on putts outside 15+ feet, but more conservative from the 5-15 range. The only other plausible explanation is that Spieth is incredibly clutch with the putter, nailing the bombs for the much needed birdie and drilling those crucial par saves.

Final Synopsis

What makes Jordan Spieth great?

Everything.

He’s a great driver, great iron player, has a great short game and is a great putter. He is far more than being “average” at every part of the game. He’s in the top-90th percentile on Tour in EVERY part of the game that is critical to a Tour player’s success.

There’s no reason why he can’t win the Grand Slam. In fact, I think one of his greatest assets is that he has a game fit for almost any golf course that the Tour players. He can play a bomber course like Augusta and win a precision course like Colonial or Harbour Town where the bombers tend to avoid like the plague because they have to lay up off the tee more often. He has gotten by Augusta and Chambers Bay which clearly favored the long hitter, so St. Andrews and Whistling Straits are there for the taking.

If there is a concern about Spieth it would be his putting from 3 to 15 feet. His putting from 3-5 feet has been poor and he has struggled to make birdie putts from 5-15 feet. If he doesn’t quite have it with the par putts from 5-15 feet, I could see him losing a major because he can’t quite get the putter going. But other than that, he has as legitimate of a chance of winning the Grand Slam.

Related: Jordan Spieth WITB 2015

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

34 Comments

Andy

Jul 23, 2015 at 5:14 pm

Hi Rich,

Awesome insight from some very interesting analysis. Wondering, where do you get the data for your analysis?

Thanks!

Reply Report comment
golfiend

Jul 2, 2015 at 11:52 am

I think it can be a fun endeavor, but we tend to over-analyze golf. I’ve even seen amateurs do this which sometimes seems to take the fun out of playing golf (but I think they get some fun out of pretending they are a pro). But this statement says it all, “Spieth simply makes a ton of birdies and pars and very few bogeys.”

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Paul Burke

Jul 2, 2015 at 9:36 am

Jordan is playing extremely well at this time. He deserves to be #1 because of his consistency of play. Love your analysis.

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Jerome Marquez

Jul 2, 2015 at 9:34 am

Hi Rich, this is Jerome from jeromemarquez.com. Great analysis!

Clearly Jordan’s confidence is extremely high and this contributes significantly towards the achievement of the stats depicted above. In my view, his consistency of play is to be commended and kudos must be given to his caddie and instructing team (coach, family etc.). Far too often we tend to forget how critical a good caddie and support team is towards the success of their ‘bag’.

I remember when Stephen Ames won the 2006 Player’s Championship and, while be broadcast on TV, you heard his caddie (his brother Robert Ames) say in the background “Now just go out and have fun with the shot”. This was his approach shot to the 18th green on the final day. Now who would not feel good about and with themselves when you have a caddie that is just amazing. (BTW, I am not a caddie. 🙂 )

Reply Report comment
KK

Jul 1, 2015 at 11:06 pm

I like Jordan’s old man game. Seems like it will stand the test of time. What will be his major/win total by the time he’s done with the PGA? i think it could be 12/40.

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Matt

Jul 1, 2015 at 4:44 pm

To have said Spieth is not great at anything but has no real weakness was not to say every aspect of his game is average. There is a lot of room between average and great.

When people ask what has made Spieth so successful, the best (short) answer borne out by your analysis is “He has a great short game, and is very good with his irons” No need to devote three paragraphs to “He scores lower than most”. “He is the very best out of the rough” is a little more interesting, but still not very satisfying.

The question here is how you define “great”. Is a “great” driver or “great” putter one who ranks in the top 20 or so players during a given season, or might that be more aptly described as “strong” or “very good”? If you did a similar analysis on Tiger when he was most dominant would we be surprised to learn he ranked no better than about third to 20th in driving, putting, or approach shots, or that he was at the top in only one little-known stat? I’d find that very interesting.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Jul 1, 2015 at 11:26 pm
  
  I did an analysis of Tiger’s game throughout the years which can be found here: http://www.golfwrx.com/240225/hunt-advanced-break-down-of-tigers-stats-under-harmon-haney-and-foley/
  
  During the Harmon years (with the data we have), he was the best driver on Tour. During the Haney years, his iron play was unparalleled and his putting stepped up tremendously, but his driving started to suffer. With somebody like Rory, he a decent putter at best and typically decent in the Short Game and struggles from the Green Zone. So, it’s rare to see somebody this good at everything.
  
  Reply Report comment
Matt

Jul 1, 2015 at 3:44 pm

When people ask what aspects of his game make Spieth so great, I’d say the best (short) answer borne out by your analysis is that he has a GREAT short game. I don’t think devoting three paragraphs to “He scores lower than most” is really necessary. “He’s the very best out of the rough” is a more unexpected conclusion, but still not very satisfying.

To say he’s not great at anything but has no real weaknesses does not imply “every part of his game is average”. There’s lots of room between average and great.

As I see it, the problem is how does one define ”great”. Is a “great” driver or “great” putter, etc, one who ranks in the top 20 or so players in a particular season, or might that be more typically classified as “very good”? If we did the same sort of analysis of Tiger’s game when he was most dominant, would we learn that he also ranked no better than about 3rd to 20th in driving, putting, or approach shots? I’d find that very interesting

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BTooth

Jul 1, 2015 at 10:03 am

Awesome article. I’m wondering how his averages compare with his major win stats? As Rory once said, he’d rather win 3 tournaments and miss 3 cuts than make 6 cuts and get 6 top 10s.

Reply Report comment
- Rich Hunt
  
  Jul 1, 2015 at 1:45 pm
  
  Unfortunately, ShotLink is not available at the Masters, US Open and British Open. They did make it available for the PGA Championship last year.
  
  Reply Report comment
Martin

Jul 1, 2015 at 1:06 am

Great article, Rich! Numbers always eliminate speculation and I am a big fan of sports metrics. It would be interesting to see the same numbers for Rory McIlroy just to get a feel of who’s better at what. Any chance you do so a side-by-side comparison? Thanks!

Reply Report comment
- Rich Hunt
  
  Jul 1, 2015 at 9:10 am
  
  I’ve been getting requests for this, so I will probably do this in my next article.
  
  Reply Report comment
Jp

Jul 1, 2015 at 12:36 am

Great spadework, Richie!

In your estimation, who on Tour comes in a distant second to YJS in all-round game according to many of the similar metrics from the article above?

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- Rich Hunt
  
  Jul 1, 2015 at 9:09 am
  
  Right now, McIlroy. McIlroy is a slightly better driver. Spieth is a better putter and is significantly better from the Green Zone (although that won’t game him many strokes since it is a small part of the game).
  
  Reply Report comment
NYKnuckleballer

Jun 30, 2015 at 8:42 pm

I think golf has a huge ball park factor similar to Colorado Rockies players back in the day. Did you compare / sorta / crunch Spieth’s numbers versus the playing field for the tourneys he played? As you said, driving distances go down at Harbor Town and go way up at Kapalua.

Reply Report comment
- Rich Hunt
  
  Jul 1, 2015 at 9:08 am
  
  All of my data, from Driving Effectiveness, to Zone play to Short Game and of course, Strokes Gained – Putting accounts for the fields and events they have played in.
  
  Reply Report comment
JP Leahy

Jun 30, 2015 at 6:36 pm

Are there similar stats for Rory available?

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- Richie Hunt
  
  Jun 30, 2015 at 8:17 pm
  
  I have Rory’s stats as well. Maybe in a later date I will write an article on him.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Pat M
    
    Jun 30, 2015 at 10:55 pm
    
    Rory and Jordan are a great contrast and we are lucky to have both of them at young ages for years of entertainment. Rory is an amazing bomber and when he is on – he is arguably the best player in the world by far.
    
    Jordan is so consistent it is frightening. Week in and week out. In 2014 at 20 years old, he was second place at the Masters and could have won it. The next year he dominates the Masters.
    
    Reply Report comment
DaveD

Jun 30, 2015 at 3:20 pm

This is tangential, but an important aspect of his game that helps with his success is one you can’t measure- attitude. Doesn’t swear after a bad shot, throws his clubs, tweets his issues with the tournament, or complain about the course. Just goes out and plays his game, works the problems after a bad shot, and shows his respect for the audience and the game. An excellent role model for the kids that golf is trying to attract.

Reply Report comment
- Rich Hunt
  
  Jun 30, 2015 at 4:13 pm
  
  I agree. It’s funny because here’s a 21-year old kid that has won the first 2 majors of the season (1 in convincing fashion) and has a great shot at winning the Grand Slam and you don’t hear much about it. If it were Tiger at 30 years old or Rory, the hype surrounding it would be far more intense. Instead, he just seems to go about his business and keep the hysteria to a minimum. He doesn’t seem to let things fluster him.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Pat M
    
    Jun 30, 2015 at 4:37 pm
    
    Jordan also finished second at the Masters last year and could have won it.
    
    My friend was a big Tiger fan. During Chambers Bay, he finally wrote off Tiger. He made switch to Jordan after the win at Chambers Bay. He put all of his TW gear on ebay and bought all Jordan Under Armour clothes. Apparently, a lot of Tiger fans are moving to Jordan.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Adam
      
      Jun 30, 2015 at 9:11 pm
      
      I’m almost there. Tiger’s golf game isn’t there right now. I don’t doubt he’ll make a small resurgence but he is past his prime so for the long term, I think Jordan is the new favorite.
      
      Reply Report comment
    - prime21
      
      Jul 1, 2015 at 7:01 am
      
      Obviously, your friend was NOT a BIG Tiger fan. His actions sound more like an obsessive stalker than they do fan. Does he have the orange Rickie Fowler outfit too? Or was that just a crush?
      
      Reply Report comment
      - Pat M
        
        Jul 3, 2015 at 11:03 am
        
        No. He is just one of those fan boy types who likes winners. He said that Tiger is now probably ranked 215th in the world now. He said that makes him a loser and he does not wear loser clothes. Yeah he is a jacked up but fan boys are like that.
        
        Reply Report comment
Tony P

Jun 30, 2015 at 2:57 pm

We really don’t need to see these stats to know that the kids is a flat out winner! Nuff said

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jedidiah's grandmother

Jun 30, 2015 at 1:58 pm

oh richie, plop your sweet cheeks on my face

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Dave S

Jun 30, 2015 at 1:45 pm

I really wonder if his technique of looking at the hole on short putts has anything to do with his poor performance for that metric. You don’t really see any other tour pros doing that, and considering that he’s worse from 3-5 ft than 88% of pros, maybe he should re-think that strategy. Of course it’s very easy to armchair quarterback. In all likliehood I have no idea what I’m talking about 🙂

Great article btw, I love statistics and your commentary and analysis added a lot of value.

Reply Report comment
- BTooth
  
  Jul 1, 2015 at 10:00 am
  
  It is weird, but if you’ve ever suffered from the affliction known as the yips, you’d know that he’d putt with his eyes closed before he’d putt from 3-5 feet under pressure looking at the ball and his putter head. He could possibly fight through it, but my guess is that this statistic would probably get worse if he didn’t use this technique.
  
  Reply Report comment
astrang0327

Jun 30, 2015 at 1:43 pm

Great article Richie. His 155th ranking in “make % on birdie putts from 5-15 feet” indicates that he’s actually leaving a ton of birdies out on the course doesn’t it?

Reply Report comment
- Rich Hunt
  
  Jun 30, 2015 at 2:20 pm
  
  Sorta.
  
  If he was at the Tour average from those distances, he would have made 7 more birdies for the entire year so far. So on one hand, that’s not much more. But, 7 strokes over the course of the season typically equates to more money being made than most people think. However, he’s already made so much money I’m not sure how much it would help him. Lots of factors involved to determine the real value of his ‘struggles’ on birdie putts from 5-15 feet.
  
  Reply Report comment
Tom

Jun 30, 2015 at 1:41 pm

He is 42nd in total driving not driving distance.

Reply Report comment
- Rich Hunt
  
  Jun 30, 2015 at 2:16 pm
  
  He’s 42nd in driving distance on ‘all drives’: http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.317.html
  
  I don’t use ‘Total Driving’ since it is a mathematically flawed and incomplete metric. I used ‘Driving Effectiveness’ instead to best determine a player’s effectiveness off the tee.
  
  Reply Report comment
marionmg

Jun 30, 2015 at 12:54 pm

So basically be 2nd on tour in birdies and don’t make bogies. Now I see why he’s winning everything!

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

6 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

6 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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