Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

How to shoot better scores in windy conditions

Published

on

As we start to move into the tropical storm season in my home state of Florida, I want to go through the research I’ve done on the data on the PGA Tour with regards to performance in windy conditions. I feel that all golfers can use this information to perform better when the wind starts to blow harder.

First, I had to determine how I wanted to measure the data. What I discovered early on is that, speaking generally, the better player will tend to perform better in different conditions. So Rory McIlroy will tend to shoot better scores than say, renowned wind player Stuart Appleby. McIlroy is simply a better player than Appleby. However, that does not mean that we should follow McIlroy’s example of how to play in the wind.

Instead, I wanted to see what players on Tour improve and what golfers improve in performance when the wind starts to pick up. I used the Adjusted Scoring Average method (defined below) in order to measure this level of improvement.

[quote_box_center]Adjusted Scoring Average: A formula that subtracts the average score for the round from par. Then that difference is added to the golfer’s score. For example, if a golfer shoots 66 on a par-72 course and the average score was a 74.5 for the day, the golfer’s score would be adjusted to 63.5.[/quote_box_center]

For this study, I needed to look at the wind speeds for the morning versus afternoon rounds and adjust the scores accordingly. As we know, most of the time there is much less wind in the morning than in the afternoon. So I had to figure out the scoring average of the morning group versus the afternoon groups.

From there, I wanted to see what players had the largest change in their Adjusted Scoring Average rankings in “windy” versus “non-windy” conditions.

Windy vs. Non-Windy Conditions

With measuring wind speed, there is the average wind speed and there are maximum wind gusts. Sometimes the average wind speed does not give an accurate depiction of how windy it was that day. When combining the average wind speed with the wind gusts, I started to see a more accurate picture. Wind gusts are defined as a peak speed of wind that usually lasts less than 20 seconds. If the average wind speed was the same on two different rounds, the day with the larger wind gusts would produce higher scores.

I used a simple formula that took the average of the average wind speed and wind gust speed and I called it Wind Velocity. Here’s an example:

(5 mph average wind speed + 10 mph wind gust)/2 = 7.5 wind velocity

The wind velocity on Tour ranges from 5 to 25 mph. But the range of Wind Velocity that is most frequent is 9 to 12 mph. Perhaps the most interesting finding was that the Tour started to see a noticeable increase in scores as a whole when the Wind Velocity was greater than 12 mph.

My interpretation? Once the Wind Velocity is at 12 mph, it can make at least a one-club difference on an into-the-wind approach shot. And as we know, the tailwind in golf does not benefit the golfer at the same equivalent of how much a headwind hurts a golfer.

In the end, I measured the rounds as:

  1. Windy conditions having a Wind Velocity of greater than 12 mph
  2. Non-windy conditions having a Wind Velocity at 12 mph or less.

Common Traits of the Best Wind Players

Here’s a list of players with the largest improvement and the players with the largest regression in “windy” conditions compared to “non-windy” conditions over the past five seasons on the PGA Tour:

Screen Shot 2015-05-19 at 12.06.18 PM

When looking at the entire list of players and their level of improvement/regression when the Wind Velocity was more than 12 mph, I started to see the following commonalities in their metrics:

  • The most improved players tend to be more conservative off the tee, in general, laying up off the tee and not using driver.
  • The most improved players tend to be less aggressive on par-5s, by laying up instead of going for the green in two shots.
  • The players with the largest regression tend to be poor from the Green Zone (approach shots from 75-125 yards).
  • The players with the largest regression tend to be poor on short game shots from inside 20 yards around the green.
  • The most improved players appear to hit the driver with a downward attack angle.

A trend that appears to exist, but on a smaller level, is that the most improved players tend to be less effective drivers of the ball in general.

The trends are certainly open to interpretation. My feeling is that there is a psychology to being comfortable with laying up off the tee and on par-5s. When playing in windy conditions, players are more apt to have to lay up because the wind will throw the ball offline. The players that lay up often in non-windy conditions are now more comfortable with having to lay-up when the wind picks up.

The downward attack angle with the driver makes perfect sense. You’re trying to flight the ball lower so the wind does not throw it offline. Players that have a pronounced upward attack angle like Bubba, Keegan and Kyle Stanley are going to have more difficulty keeping the ball out of the wind.

As for the Short Game shots around the green, when the conditions become windy the greens in regulation percentage drops and therefore the golfer has to be able to convert scrambling opportunities. But what surprised me a bit is that the most improved players had a trend of being better from the Green Zone (75-125 yards).

My guess why is twofold:

  1. In windy conditions, the players are not likely able to go for par-5s in two shots, therefore they have to lay up to that Green Zone range.
  2. In windy conditions, the players are more likely to hit their drives offline and then have to hit a rescue shot instead of being able to go for the green, so they have to save par from the Green Zone.

For those using this at home, I would recommend using your smart phone weather app to see what the wind speed is and where the wind is coming from. Since it is now legal to use a compass during a round of golf, more diligent golfers can use it to determine where the wind is coming from when the wind starts to swirl a bit. And if the wind speeds are faster than 12 mph, golfers may want to focus on being a bit more conservative in strategy off the tee and on par-5s while working on their wedges before they go out to play.

Your Reaction?
  • 45
  • LEGIT17
  • WOW7
  • LOL2
  • IDHT2
  • FLOP9
  • OB3
  • SHANK14

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2015 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2015 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

Continue Reading
19 Comments

19 Comments

  1. Scott

    May 28, 2015 at 9:18 am

    This is a very interesting article. I have improved my wind play by mentally accepting the conditions instead of worrying or complaining. A week at Bandon Dunes changed my idea of what wind really is. I look at it as another hazard that has to be negotiated.

  2. Roonster

    May 24, 2015 at 4:26 pm

    Theres on dobt 12 mph is a significant number this means that a stratergy is needed soft hands ball back in stance and finishing loe ,find the middle of the club and accept what you get if you get it right then fine if not accept this it may not be your fault
    when chipping keep it low if you can try to keep it on the floor make it work for you as
    a stratergy its fun and you can learn the skills come to the uk and you will need those skills

  3. Steve

    May 23, 2015 at 9:40 am

    If you live/play in a area where windy conditions are normal, south florida. Texas etc . You learn to play in it through trial and error. If you live in a area where wind isnt a factor normally it will be harder for you. I grew up in the northeast where wind was a non factor so hitting high bombs was the play. Now i am in south florida and high bombs are death sentence here. So you change your game to fit. Which is mid piercing draws or low tee driver bullets. But it does take time to get use too

    • Regis

      May 27, 2015 at 9:55 am

      Totally agree. I’ve played most of my golf on Long Island . First 25 on an inland course. Last 2 on a course where the back nine abuts the water. Wind can be fierce. Learned by trial and error (mostly error). My favorite shot is hitting a tee shot into the wind coming off the bay and riding the wind into the center of the fairway . When it works

  4. Martin

    May 22, 2015 at 8:38 pm

    I have spent the last 7 years first on the Prairie where it was always windy and now near the Atlantic ocean where the same thing exists.

    Into the wind, or even worse an in my face coming a bit from the right I almost always hit a 3w. I still hit it hard but can hit it almost dead straight. Over the years I found extra club and hit the ball very straight with no fade or draw is the best way to play in windy conditions.

    My regular swing now except with a driver which is a fade is almost always dead straight, I gues I taught myself to keep the club sq

  5. Jonny B

    May 22, 2015 at 3:41 pm

    Sergio hits down on the ball almost more than anyone else on tour. He takes mammoth divots with his 3 wood. Yet he’s on the bad wind player list… what gives? Kind of refutes your theory.

    • Richie Hunt

      May 23, 2015 at 10:16 am

      First, it’s trends, so it doesn’t mean that there will never be an exception to the rule. Secondly, Sergio over the years has not been that good from 75-125 yards and his Short Game play has been suspect at times.

  6. Desmond

    May 22, 2015 at 10:16 am

    So you’ re hitting down on the driver, placing more spin on the ball… okay, I assume the downward AOA must be slight for tour players.

    • Thomas Beckett

      May 22, 2015 at 11:12 am

      If a player decreases the angle of attack from say 2 degrees upward to 2 degrees downward with a driver or any club for that matter, and also decreases the loft by the same amount which in this case is 4, the spin loft remains the same so there would be ZERO increase or decrease in backspin. Hitting up more or down more is only one part to changing the spin rates.

      • Desmond

        May 22, 2015 at 11:17 am

        Thx. Yes, I thought you’d have to decrease left to minimize spin. Of course, I’ve also heard the old saw that in the wind, tee it high and let it fly … that seems defeating against the wind.

        With iron approaches, I’ve played with guys who take more club and keep it low, and guys who take more club, make a full swing, and let it fly – they let the wind balloon it and knock it down onto the green. That is interesting to watch and do …

    • Rich Hunt

      May 22, 2015 at 11:32 am

      I was just reporting what the data shows. Some players like Trevor Immelman (plays more effectively in the wind) have a very steep attack angle and high spin rates. But, he also hits the ball very low. However, I didn’t put that in the end of the article as something to do because I think changing your AoA and still hit the ball well is probably difficult to do.

  7. The dude

    May 22, 2015 at 6:53 am

    Most amateurs don’t use enough club….for them it’s too much to swallow a little pride and hit that 8 iron from 125….instead of muscling a wedge

    • Cliff

      May 22, 2015 at 10:50 am

      Agreed! Most amateurs think they can hit any club an extra 5-10 yards by swinging harder. This just isn’t the case. Take the extra club or 2 and swing easy.

    • Rich Hunt

      May 22, 2015 at 11:30 am

      Old Florida saying…’when it’s breezy, swing easy.’ There have been some YouTube videos showing people with Trackman and showing the numbers why hitting more club and swinging less forcefully is beneficial in the wind.

  8. Matt

    May 21, 2015 at 11:09 am

    Growing up in Oklahoma taught me a lot about how to play in the wind. The trick for me is to keep my grip light and swing easy. If you try to control the ball too much you’ll end up making a bad swing.

  9. Duncan Castles

    May 21, 2015 at 11:01 am

    Informative and helpful. As always…
    Thanks Rich.

  10. Tom Stickney

    May 21, 2015 at 9:47 am

    Brilliant

    • Jeez Utz

      May 23, 2015 at 8:32 am

      Like you would know

      • devilsadvocate

        May 23, 2015 at 11:55 am

        Actually yes he would… Tom is a class A PGA pro and director of instruction… Ooops! You may now remove your proverbial foot from your mouth

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Courses

Coming Up: A Big Golf Adventure

Published

on

My name is Jacob Sjöman, and I’m a 35-year-old golf photographer who also enjoys the game we all love. I will be sharing some experiences here on a big golf trip that we are doing. With me I’ve got my friend Johan. I will introduce him properly later, but he is quite a funny character. According to Johan, he is the best golf photo assistant in the world, and we will see about that since this is probably his biggest test yet doing this trip. Previously on our trips, Johan almost got us killed in Dubai with a lack of driving skills. He also missed a recent evening photo shoot in Bulgaria while having a few beers to many… and that’s not all.

Anyway, the last couple of days I’ve been packing my bags over and over. I came home from the Canary Islands this Sunday and I’ve been constantly checking and rechecking that we’ve got all the required equipment, batteries, and that the cameras are 100 percent functional and good to go for this golf trip. I’m still not sure, but in a couple of minutes I will be sitting in a taxi to the airport and there will be no turning back.

Where are we going then? We are going to visit some of the very best golf courses in New Zealand and Australia. There will be breathtaking golf on cliffsides, jaw-dropping scenic courses, and some hidden gems. And probably a big amount of lost balls with a lot of material produced in the end.

I couldn’t be more excited for a golf journey like this one. Flying around the globe to these special golf courses I’ve only dreamed about visiting before gives me a big kick and I feel almost feel like a Indiana Jones. The only thing we’ve got in common, though, is that we don’t like snakes. Australia seems to be one of the worst destinations to visit in that purpose, but all the upsides are massive in this.

First, we will take off from a cold Stockholm (it’s raining heavily outside at the moment) and then we will do our first stop at Doha in Quatar. Then after two more hours, we are finally heading off to Auckland on the north island of New Zealand, a mega-flight of 16 hours. I believe that could very well be one of the longest flights available for a ordinary airplane. I need to check that.

Flights for me usually mean work, editing photos from different golf courses I’ve visited, writing some texts, editing some films, and planning for the future. Last time, though, I finally managed to sleep a little, which is a welcome progress for a guy that was deadly scared of flying until 2008.

Now, I am perfectly fine with flying. A few rocky flights over the Atlantic Sea to Detroit helped me a lot, and my motto is now, “If those flights got me down on the ground safely, it takes a lot of failures to bring down a plane.”

Anyway, I hope you will join me on this golf trip. Stay tuned!

Your Reaction?
  • 18
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW1
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Be Curious, Not Critical, of Tour Player Swings

Published

on

After a foul ball by a tour player, the talking heads on TV are often quick to analyze the “problem” with that swing. Fair enough, I suppose. Even the best players are human and our game has more failure than success. But I’d like to offer a different take on swings of the best players in the world.

First, let’s remember how good these guys and gals really are. If you met up with the lowest ranked player on any professional tour at a public course one day, I’ll bet that golfer would be the best golfer most of you have ever played with. You’d be telling your buddies in the 19th hole about him or her for a very long time. These players have reached a level of ball striking most people only dream about. That’s why I’m more curious than critical when it comes to a tour player’s swing. I’m not thinking about what he/she needs to do better; I’m thinking, “How do they do it so well?” In other words, I want to know how they put their successful move together. What part goes with the other parts? How did their pattern evolve? What are the compatible components of their swing?

Let’s use Jim Furyk as an example. Furyk has what we might call an “unconventional” move. It’s also a swing that has won nearly $70 million and shot 58 one day. But I’ll offer him as an example because his swing illustrates the point I’m making. From a double-overlapping grip, Furyk picks the golf club up to what might be the most vertical position one would ever see from a professional. Then in transition, he flattens the club and drops it well behind him. Now the club is so flat and inside, he has to open his body as quickly as he can to keep the club from getting “stuck.” Let’s call it an “up-and-under loop.”

Let’s take Matt Kuchar as a counter example. Kuchar’s signature hands-in, flat and very deep takeaway is pretty much the total opposite of Furyk. But he comes over that takeaway and gets the club back into a great position into impact. We’ll call that an “in-and-over” loop.

Both are two of the best and most consistent golfers in the world. Is one right and the other wrong? Of course not. They do have one thing in common, however, and it’s that they both balanced their golf swing equation.

What would happen if Kuchar did what Furyk does coming down? Well, he wouldn’t be on TV on the weekend. If he did, he’d be hitting drop kicks several inches behind. That doesn’t win The Players Championship. The point is that the Furyk downswing is incompatible with the Kuchar backswing, and vice versa, but I’m guessing they both know that.

How can this help you? My own personal belief and the basis of my teaching is this: your backswing is an option, but your downswing is a requirement. I had one student today dropping the arms and club well inside and another coming over the top, and they both felt better impact at the end of the lesson. I showed them how to balance their equation.

My job is solving swing puzzles, a new one very hour, and I’m glad it is. It would be mind-numbing boredom if I asked every golfer to do the same thing. It’s the teaching professional’s job to solve your puzzle, and I assure you that with the right guidance you can make your golf swing parts match. Are there universal truths, things that every golfer MUST do?  Yes, they are the following:

  1. Square the club face
  2. Come into the ball at a good angle
  3. Swing in the intended direction
  4. Hit the ball in the center of the face (method be damned!)

But here’s the funny part: Let Kuchar or Furyk get off base and watch every swing critic in the world blame some part of the quirkiness of their move that has led to their greatness. When players at their level get off their game, it’s generally due to poor timing or that they lost the sync/rhythm that connected their individual parts. The same holds true for all of us. We have to find the matching parts and the timing to connect them. You might not need new parts.

After all, weren’t those same parts doing the job when you shot your career low round?

Your Reaction?
  • 115
  • LEGIT8
  • WOW1
  • LOL1
  • IDHT2
  • FLOP1
  • OB1
  • SHANK7

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

The numbers behind “full scholarships” in NCAA men’s college golf

Published

on

If you are in the world of junior golf, you’ve probably heard about a young man you know who’s getting that coveted full ride to college, maybe even to a Power-5 school. With all the talk in junior golf about full scholarships, and a lot of rumors about how many are available, we decided to poll coaches and gather some real data about “full scholarships.”

So, what did we find out? In total, we got responses to a voluntary online survey from 61 men’s D1 coaches, 19 men’s D2 coaches and 3 NAIA coaches (83 total). On average, the coaches in the survey had 11.8 years of coaching experience. Of the coaches that responded, 58 of the 83 coaches reported having zero players on full ride. Another 15 coaches surveyed reported having one player on full ride. This means that 69 percent of the coaches surveyed reported zero players on full scholarship and 18 percent reported one player on full scholarship, while another four coaches reported that 20 percent of their team was on full ride and six coaches reported between 2-3 players on full ride.

We then asked coaches, “what percent of golfers in Division 1 do you think have full scholarships based on your best guess?” Here’s what the responses looked like: 25 coaches said 5 percent and 36 coaches said 10 percent. This means that 73 percent of respondents suggested that, in their opinion, in men’s Division 1, Division 2 and NAIA, there are less than 10 percent of players on full ride.

Next, we asked coaches, “what was a fair scholarship percentage to offer a player likely to play in your top 5?” The average of the 83 responses was 62.5 percent scholarship with 38 coaches (46 percent) suggesting they would give 30-50 percent and 43 coaches (52 percent) suggesting 50-75 percent. Only two coaches mentioned full scholarship.

The last question we asked coaches, was “what would you need to do to earn a full scholarship?”

  • Top-100 in NJGS/Top-250 in WAGR – 41 coaches (49 percent)
  • 250-700 in WAGR – 19 coaches (23 percent)
  • Most interesting, 17 coaches (20 percent) noted that they either did not give full rides or did not have the funding to give full rides.

The findings demonstrate that full rides among players at the men’s Division 1, Division 2 and NAIA levels are rare, likely making up less than 10 percent of total players. It also suggests that if you are a junior player looking for a full ride, you need to be exceptional; among the very best in your class.

Please note that the survey has limitations because it does not differentiate between athletic and academic money. The fact is several institutions have a distinct advantage of being able to “stack” academic and athletic aid to create the best financial packages. My intuition suggests that the coaches who responded suggesting they have several players on “full rides” are likely at places where they are easily able to package money. For example, a private institution like Mercer might give a student $12,000 for a certain GPA and SAT. This might amount to approximately 25 percent, but under the NCAA rules it does not count toward the coach’s 4.5 scholarships. Now for 75 percent athletic, the coach can give a player a full ride.

Maybe the most interesting finding of the data collection is the idea that many programs are not funded enough to offer full rides. The NCAA allows fully funded men’s Division 1 programs to have 4.5 scholarships, while Division 2 programs are allowed 3.6. My best guess suggests that a little more than 60 percent of men’s Division 1 programs have this full allotment of scholarship. In Division 2, my guess is that this number is a lot closer to 30 percent.

Your Reaction?
  • 103
  • LEGIT20
  • WOW13
  • LOL2
  • IDHT1
  • FLOP3
  • OB2
  • SHANK20

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Facebook

Trending