Opinion & Analysis
The 22 golfers who can actually win The Masters
Editor’s Note: Rich Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and their instructors.
Each year, I create a filter to help predict the golfers who are most likely to win the Masters. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 or 24 players that meet the criterion. In last year’s event, I predicted Bubba Watson would win the event — which he did at 25/1 odds.
Before I discuss my picks of this year’s Masters, which this year includes 22 players, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, and that creates a smaller deviation in scores.
How No. 17 looks from the tee without the Eisenhower tree (Photo Credit: Andrew Redington/Getty Images).
In 2013 for instance, the critical holes were Nos. 7, 12, 13, 17 and 18. But the removal of the Eisenhower Tree on No. 17 created a smaller deviation in scores, so No. 17 was no longer a critical hole for participants. The par-5 13th hole has also seen a trend in more similar scores, so it has been replaced by the par-5 15th hole as a critical hole. The critical holes to watch out for at the 2015 Masters are Nos. 7, 12, 15 and 18.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the past champions who are well past their time being competitive and the amateurs. Those 18 players include:
- Antonio Murdaca (1000/1)
- Ben Crenshaw (2500/1)
- Bernhard Langer (300/1)
- Bradley Neil (1000/1)
- Byron Meth (2000/1)
- Corey Conners (1000/1)
- Fred Couples (150/1)
- Gunn Yang (1000/1)
- Ian Woosnam (2500/1)
- Jose Maria Olazabal (1000/1)
- Larry Mize (2500/1)
- Mark O’Meara (2500/1)
- Matias Dominguez (1000/1)
- Mike Weir (1000/1)
- Sandy Lyle (2500/1)
- Scott Harvey (750/1)
- Tom Watson (1000/1)
- Trevor Immelman (500/1)
I also eliminated any first-time invitees, as the only first time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Those 13 players include:
- Anirban Lahiri (300/1)
- Bernd Wiesberger (250/1)
- Brendon Todd (250/1)
- Brian Harman (500/1)
- Brooks Koepka (80/1)
- Cameron Tringale (300/1)
- Danny Willett (150/1)
- Erik Compton (500/1)
- James Hahn (200/1)
- Morgan Hoffmann (250/1)
- Robert Streb (300/1)
- Seung-Yul Noh (300/1)
- Shane Lowry (150/1)
Out of the group of first-time invitees, I would pay close attention to Shane Lowry, as he has a game that is a very good fit for Augusta because of the strong Red Zone Play (shots from 175-225 yards) that he has shown off this season. And of course, if Brooks Koepka is healthy, I expect him to have a good showing, as Augusta fits his game as well.
Unfortunately, I have to eliminate five international players because I do not have enough statistical information on their playing performance in the past four months. Last year, I eliminated five international players that I had insufficient data on as well. Only one of them made a minor run at winning — Thomas Bjorn, who finished T8.
The four players include:
- Thomas Bjorn (300/1)
- Darren Clarke (1000/1)
- Stephen Gallacher (300/1)
- Braden Grace (200/1)
- Mikko Ilonen (500/1)
I will also eliminate these four American players, who have not played a sufficient amount of tournaments this season for me to statistically measure their key performance metrics:
- Kevin Stadler (500/1)
- Steve Stricker (200/1)
- Tiger Woods (20/1)
- Ben Crane (500/1)
Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:
- Jim Furyk (70/1)
- Zach Johnson (60/1)
Last year I had five players in the “too short to win at Augusta” list, and the 3 of the 5 made the cut with a best finish going to Jim Furyk, who tied for 14th.
Even more damning is the players who hit the ball too low. This is based on the Apex Height measurement, determined with Trackman on the PGA Tour. Last year, I had 10 players in the “too low of a trajectory to win at Augusta,” and 9 of the 10 players missed the cut. The only player who did make the cut was “The Mechanic,” Miguel Jimenez, who finished in 4th place. But if you don’t hit it high at Augusta, your odds of winning are not very good. That’s why I’ve eliminated these six players:
- Camilo Villegas (250/1)
- Graeme McDowell (150/1)
- Jason Dufner (125/1)
- Kevin Na (100/1)
- Patrick Reed (25/1)
- Thongchai Jaidee (500/1)
The player who stands out in this group is Patrick Reed. He’s currently 183rd in Apex Height. Typically, he has been better than the average in Apex Height, but for whatever reason he is hitting the ball quite low this season. I think, like Jimenez, Reed has the ability to alter his ball flight. But given how critical Apex Height is to success at Augusta, the numbers suggest that his odds are not that great this season.
Furthermore, since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters who had never previously made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Reed has never made the cut at the Masters and neither have the three players below. Let’s rule them out as well. They are:
- Victor Dubuisson (100/1)
- Ben Martin (300/1)
- Sang-Moon Bae (250/1)
I will say that if anybody could break that mold it would be Reed, whose fiery behavior and competitiveness reminds me of John McEnroe. But for now, I’ll stick with the numbers and the odds.
I also eliminated the players who missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open this week, because historically the odds of a player missing the cut the previous week and winning the next week are extremely slim. Furthermore, the Golf Club of Houston plays similarly to Augusta. Last year there were nine players who were not previously filtered out that missed the cut at Houston. Of those nine players, only five of them made the cut and the best finish was a T20 by Ian Poulter.
If a player did not play well at Houston, the odds are that they will not play well at a similar style of course like Augusta National. Those five players include:
- Angel Cabrera (80/1)
- Joost Luiten (205/1)
- Lee Westwood (45/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Martin Kaymer (65/1)
Another key metric at Augusta is long approach shots, which I call “Red Zone” play. The Red Zone are approach shots from 175-225 yards. Last year, there were nine players on my list of weak Red Zone performers. The best finish came from John Huh, who finished T11. Let’s rule out these 15 players because of their poor Red Zone play, which again, is critical at Augusta:
- Bill Haas (80/1)
- Charl Schwartzel (80/1)
- Charley Hoffman (250/1)
- Geoff Ogilvy (300/1)
- Hunter Mahan (100/1)
- Ian Poulter (80/1)
- Jamie Donaldson (125/1)
- John Senden (250/1)
- Jonas Blixt (150/1)
- Luke Donald (100/1)
- Marc Leishman (200/1)
- Matt Every (250/1)
- Phil Mickelson (20/1)
- Russell Henley (125/1)
- Sergio Garcia (40/1)
There are some big surprises involved with that list of players. This includes former winners Charl Schwartzel and Phil Mickelson, who currently rank 194th and 134th (out of 206 players) respectively from the Red Zone. Typically good approach shot player Luke Donald ranks 198th, and Sergio Garcia currently ranks 205th out of 206 from the Red Zone. While those rankings can change dramatically when the season is finished, it is clear that these players are currently having major issues on those long approach shots.
Lastly, I have started a new metric this season, as I have noticed that there is some correlation between performance on straight-away par-4’s and the Masters performance. Essentially, I have measured a scoring average for players on the straight-away par-4’s and adjusted that scoring average based on the hole’s difficulty. The five players left on the list who have struggled on straight-away par-4’s this season are:
- Ernie Els (150/1)
- Padraig Harrington (150/1)
- Justin Rose (40/1)
- Webb Simpson (150/1)
- Gary Woodland (125/1)
Finally, we are down to the 22 players that the numbers show can win at Augusta. They include:
- Adam Scott (20/1)
- Bill Horschel (70/1)
- Brandt Snedeker (40/1)
- Bubba Watson (10/1)
- Chris Kirk (150/1)
- Dustin Johnson (12/1)
- Henrik Stenson (20/1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (60/1)
- Jason Day (12/1)
- J.B. Holmes (35/1)
- Jimmy Walker (18/1)
- Jordan Spieth (8/1)
- Keegan Bradley (60/1)
- Kevin Streelman (150/1)
- Matt Kuchar (30/1)
- Miguel Angel Jimenez (150/1)
- Paul Casey (70/1)
- Rickie Fowler (30/1)
- Rory McIlroy (8/1)
- Ryan Moore (60/1)
- Ryan Palmer (80/1)
- Vijay Singh (125/1)
Of those 22 players, here are my top-10 picks to win the Masters:
- Rory McIlroy (8/1)
- Jordan Spieth (8/1)
- Bubba Watson (10/1)
- Jason Day (12/1)
- Dustin Johnson (12/1)
- Adam Scott (20/1)
- Jimmy Walker (18/1)
- J.B. Holmes (35/1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (60/1)
- Paul Casey (70/1)
*Odds from VegasInsider.com. For a list of updated Masters Odds, click here.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
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The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.
Scheffler In a League of His Own
In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.
For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.
The Future is Now
Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.
With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Nostalgia Wins
I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.
Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.
The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.
Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.
Bryson Moves the Needle
Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.
It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.
Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.
LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed
Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.
The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.
This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.
Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.
Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.
To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.
With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.
Rory’s Struggles Continues
Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.
I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.
McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.
Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.
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We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
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Max Homa WITB 2024 (April)
Max Homa what’s in the bag accurate as of the Masters. Driver: Titleist TSR3 (9 degrees, D1 SureFit setting) Shaft:...
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Driver: Krank Formula Fire Pro (6 degrees) Shaft: Project X HZRDUS T1100 75g 6.5 Mini driver: TaylorMade BRNR Mini Driver...
Scottie Scheffler’s winning WITB: 2024 Masters
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WITB Time Machine: Danny Willett’s winning WITB, 2016 Masters
Driver: Callaway XR 16 (9 degrees) Shaft: Mitsubishi Rayon Diamana W-Series 60 X Length: 45.5 inches 3-wood: Callaway XR 16 (15 degrees) Shaft: Mitsubishi...
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Jimmy W
Mar 29, 2016 at 3:27 pm
When do you plan on releasing the 2016 version of this? Always love your write up.
Brian
Apr 13, 2015 at 3:17 pm
Well, thank you sir. With your information I won my masters pool at work. Brilliant! Please do this again next year!
John
Apr 10, 2015 at 9:29 pm
Which two do you like over the weekend out of this group: Woods, Haas, Moore, Matsuyama, Blixt, Sergio?
Stormy
Apr 8, 2015 at 4:40 pm
Thanks much for the article Rich, very interesting and compelling. Do you have any clue how nagging Hideki Matsuyama’s wrist injury is?
Rich Hunt
Apr 9, 2015 at 9:34 am
Not sure. His ballstriking is still really great. I have him ranked 2nd in Driving Effectiveness right now and 7th in Red Zone play. Last year his biggest woes was his Short Game play around the green, but this year he’s 34th. I don’t know when the wrist injury occurred, but it doesn’t appear to be bothering him too much. Phenomenal talent.
Jordan
Apr 8, 2015 at 4:26 pm
Rich that was one of the best articles I’ve ever read and great insight behind the numbers, I understand your top 10, Casey being your dark horse, and Rory your pick to win. But who’s the other 3 that make your top 5?
Rich Hunt
Apr 9, 2015 at 9:36 am
I still like Bubba, Jason Day and Spieth.
Andrew
Apr 8, 2015 at 12:39 pm
Richie- What do you think of Lee Westwood this week. He’s been a top-10 machine at ANGC. I know he missed the cut last week but -2 in tough conditions (close to the cut) but that doesn’t seem to indicate he really struggled. If you hadn’t cut him for missing the cut, how would he have performed in the other metrics you use to predict this week?
Rich Hunt
Apr 8, 2015 at 2:50 pm
I really liked Westwood, although his data is limited this year. He performed well from the Red Zone and straight-away par-4’s. But, he missed the cut at Houston which is too problematic to overcome. Wouldn’t be surprised if he records a top-10 finish, but winning isn’t very likely.
gpo613
Apr 8, 2015 at 12:02 pm
I love the analysis. I am a huge math guy myself. One interesting stat I found this week is that only 2 players have finished in the Top 20 in the last 5 Masters. Adam Scott and Fred Couples.
Doesn’t mean much but interesting.
Even though it goes against the stats the guy I don’t believe in this week is Holmes.
Rich Hunt
Apr 9, 2015 at 9:39 am
Holmes has played this year in interesting style. His Red Zone performance is poor 146th, but he’s rarely in the Red Zone except on the par-3’s. He just hits it too far to be in the Red Zone on the par-4’s. I was going to filter him out, but his performance at Houston changed that. Still, I think he could have issues on the par-3’s and #13 and #15 if his drive ends up with 175-225 yards to the hole. But, I’ve talked to some of the Vegas odds makers and in golf, the hot hand is very important.
Kevin
Apr 8, 2015 at 11:05 am
If you have watched much golf on TV this season, the players in the final list of favorites are the ones who would have passed the eye ball test for having a great chance this week as well. Barring some anomaly, whoever putts the best of the favorites will probably win.
Martin
Apr 8, 2015 at 7:39 am
I think the analysis is pretty good, I picked Day in my pool.
Ian
Apr 8, 2015 at 6:05 am
PSA: the year Zach Johnson won was windy and cold (eliminating the distance advantage of the bombers). Or you can waste your time and read all 50+ posts below saying the same thing.
T
Apr 7, 2015 at 10:39 pm
It’s cute when you guys point to Zach or Weir as a way to disprove logic. The article is based on statistics and trends, not the anomalies. Those of you trolling should write your own article with your top 20, based on the seat of your pants then narrow it to a top 10 picks based on past winners and long shots, I’m sure you will get lucky once every 5-10 years.
I’ll stick to statistics which have worked 2 years in a row and have something more than an opinion to back them up.
Thanks for the well written article Rich.
devlin
Apr 9, 2015 at 8:59 am
This is really good statistical research. However these statistics do not take into account other variables such as weather, player emotional and physical state, players preparation, tee off selection, player partner selection.
I will state I am not surprised at how the list was achieved.
With the exception of Hunter Mahan and Phil Mickelson not being part of the top 22.
I am surprised at some of the people on that list though; Jimmy Walker, and Henrik Stenson don’t appear to have the belief that they can win at Augusta, from the sound bites and interviews that i’ve heard. Miguel and Vijay do not have the finishing ability or conditioning to win. Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore and Ryan Palmer shouldn’t even be on the top 22 list, regardless of the stats., in my opinion. Hedeki is injured and he’s too new to the Masters he might need a few more years but should not be on this list this year.
But that’s the interesting thing about statistics, they can be used to prove or disprove anything.
Good Read though!
Jeff
Apr 7, 2015 at 5:08 pm
Zach Johnson definitely too short to finish well at Augusta.
Pulley
Apr 7, 2015 at 12:31 pm
Excellent article Rich! However Victor Dubuisson will finish in the top 5 and probably win it all.
Kevin
Apr 7, 2015 at 11:50 am
really fun article, well-written, and the stat approach was interesting! you mention you picked Bubba last year, so who is your top pick this year based on all information you have gathered?
jedidiahs mom
Apr 7, 2015 at 8:54 am
richie what are the odds of you looking your cutest on Thursday?
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:36 am
Vegas has removed them from the odds line.
James
Apr 7, 2015 at 7:50 am
A great read with some interesting points. In my humble opinion, I’m surprised there was no metric mentioned regarding chipping or putting, particularly as we’re talking about Augusta, but nevertheless an enjoyable read!
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:19 am
James – ANGC is a course about hitting GIR. 9 of the last 10 winners hit at least 50 GIR’s and the one that didn’t, Charl Schwartzel, hit 49 GIR in his victory. This is not typical of a lot of courses where there may be a wide range of GIR by the winners over the years. Usually the courses where hitting a lot of GIR’s is needed is usually low scoring events like Las Vegas or Palm Springs. But the Masters is not a low scoring event and since you have to hit a ton of GIR’s to win, it shows that putting has far less effect than people think. That’s how guys that are typically below average putters like Bubba, Adam Scott, Cabrera, etc play well at ANGC.
The numbers suggest that inside 20-feet at ANGC there are a lot of putts to be made. The issue is outside 20-feet as there are likely a lot of 3-putts to be made. So the better ballstrikers tend to win here and if you’re missing greens, it’s likely going to be a difficult up-and-down from any position due to it being difficult to get close to the hole.
I think the greens have a large impact on 1st time invitees given Zoeller is the only person to win there and that was nearly 35 years ago. But for the rest of the field that gets to experience the greens there probably is not a great deviation in putting performance and the greater deviation results from getting the approach shot close to the hole.
Ev
Apr 7, 2015 at 5:29 am
Love the article, I don’t like to pick winners in the Masters. I’ve gone for Jimmy Walker finishing in top 20 at evens
Simz
Apr 7, 2015 at 4:49 am
Brilliant! Thanks for this. I feel this is a well structured and articulated piece, and although most of your final picks fall into the “common” pool, the stats justify it. But a question Rich
1) Given the weather forecast (rainy, storms predicted for Thurs – Sat) – How does this affect the picks? Maybe a chance for the shorter hitters / good scramblers
2) No putting metric to help with more filtering?
Thanks again
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:35 am
a) Wind tends to help the shorter players with good wedge games in general. Zach Johnson won at ANGC in a terribly cold and windy 4-days. I have done research on players that perform better (with regards to where they rank in an event) when the wind is up and typically good wedge players with slightly downward attack angles with the driver and a little more conservative off the tee tend to do better. As far as rain goes, I have yet to do research on that. I would think that would favor the long hitter (think Daly at Crooked Stick) and the short hitter that is excellent from the Red Zone (i.e. Weir when he won). So screwy weather conditions may favor a player more like Chris Kirk or Ryan Moore.
b)
Gary Gutful
Apr 7, 2015 at 3:57 am
Bet large and bet often.
I’m going to put a shyteload on Day.
Jake Anderson
Apr 7, 2015 at 3:10 am
Very interesting – great article! Just one question out of curiosity: How did you determine that Vijay Singh was not well past his competitive prime so that you did not rule him out initially? Is this due to his stats on the PGA-Tour this season? For example approach play from the Red Zone?
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:22 am
Yes. Vijay is 6th in Red Zone play so far this year. He also played well at Riviera (t-12th) which has a moderate correlation to performance at ANGC. I believe the Red Zone shots at Riviera are similar to the type of Red Zone shots at ANGC and that’s why there is a correlation between performance there earlier in the year and performance at the Masters.
AC930
Apr 7, 2015 at 1:51 am
Great article and insight….. but I’m not going to write off Tiger like so many are doing right now. Does anyone remember the 14 majors? He may have looked like he was trying to play left handed a few months ago, but he will wake up and intimidate again.
Rich
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:20 am
I think you need to wake up dude…………
RG
Apr 6, 2015 at 10:45 pm
To all the mouth breathers-It’s called math. Yes Rich used numbers and, OMG, formulas to give what is called a “statistical analysis.” Now I know many of you don’t “believe” in scientific mumbo jumbo, so this article is not for you.
To Rich,
Don’t worry about comments you see in this forum. People on here are convinced that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west and there’s no scientific gobbly goop that can change it.
Rich
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:21 am
But it does so what’s your point?
JHM
Apr 6, 2015 at 10:28 pm
great article – hope you are right – I got 3 of your top 21 and 2 of your top 10 with pretty good odds from Ceasars
marcel
Apr 6, 2015 at 10:16 pm
if Bubba does not win then the other guy can be whoever!
michael
Apr 6, 2015 at 9:16 pm
Before reading the article i had Keegan and Kuchar penciled in as my picks. I think at 60 to 1 Bradley is good odds for a wager.
KT
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:26 pm
Rich – so who’s your pick to win it?
Richie Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:56 pm
I like Rory.
Gubment Cheez
Apr 6, 2015 at 6:53 pm
It’s a limited field with a bunch of over the hill former winners and a lot of amateurs that couldn’t shoot in the 60s at the John Deere.
Augusta thinks it’s too good for golf
It’s a cool looking course but by far it’s the worst tournament of the year
Why anyone really cares about this is beyond me.
Richie Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:55 pm
Gubment — Have you ever been to Augusta?
Gubment Cheez
Apr 7, 2015 at 1:13 pm
Yea once when I first got into golf
Joey.
Apr 6, 2015 at 6:27 pm
Richie also thinks that the greens at Augusta are easier to putt than other courses on tour. I’d say that’s enough to discredit any of his opinions/ “statistical analyses”
Richie Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 8:54 pm
What can be discredited is you have completely misrepresented what I’ve said in a desperate move to make yourself sound correct. The data shows that the make percentages inside 20-feet at ANGC are fairly high and that the 3-putt %’s are also high. Faster greens on Tour by and large have the highest make %’s and depending on the size of the greens…have the highest 3-putt %’s. I was told that this could not possibly be true and I showed example after example of this where the slower greens (i.e. Pebble, Riviera, Torrey Pines, etc) had low make %’s while the faster greens like Congressional, TPC Boston, and Valhalla had some of the higher make %’s. Until you provide any actual evidence suggesting otherwise, it’s hard to take your claims with more than a grain of salt.
Joey.
Apr 6, 2015 at 9:12 pm
You mad bro?
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:26 am
Not mad at all. I love to clarify people that make purposely inaccurate statements. Exposing people and their agendas comes with the territory.
Duncan Castles
Apr 7, 2015 at 2:35 pm
Hunt wins 10 & 8.
Joakim
Apr 6, 2015 at 5:57 pm
Henrik Stenson should be in top 10
Rich Hunt
Apr 7, 2015 at 9:29 am
I thought about it, but Stenson’s game is really about driving (typically). Last season he was excellent from the Red Zone (5th), this year he’s been very good. The issue I see for him is that ANGC isn’t a course where you’re going to gain a lot of strokes on the field by hitting 300 yard drives down the middle. It won’t hurt, but you have to worry about guys like Bubba, DJ, Holmes, etc. that can simply bomb it out there as far as they can and still end up with a shot at the green from a closer distance. I wouldn’t scoff at anybody picking Stenson, I just think that there are players that fit into ANGC better than he does.
Jadon
Apr 6, 2015 at 4:58 pm
Yes Mike Weir has a green jacket but his play on tour has been less than stellar for the past 3 years.
Matt
Apr 6, 2015 at 4:50 pm
Haha sorry but I laughed when I saw Paul Casey…dude’s driving accuracy is 110th.
All things considered Bubba’s in the 140’s but we’ve all seen the filthy shots he can hit from the rough!
Sam
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:28 pm
In reply to Ed,
When Zach won in ’07 the weather was less than ideal. The course was playing soft and so the longer hitters couldn’t take advantage of the par 5s. So a great wedge player like Zach had no disadvantage laying up on par 5s. Unless the course plays soft it’s unlikely for a short player to prevail
Ross
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:23 pm
This is a Par 5 championship, the golfer with the least stokes taken on the 16 par 5s will be triumphant.
Jafar
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:23 pm
Sorry but your stats are a horrible way to pick the winner. Just because you said Bubba Watson would win doesn’t mean your formula worked.
Brooks Koepka, Zach Johnson,Angel Cabrera, Jonas Blixt, are all very capable of winning.
The only pick I like of yours is JB Holmes, but the rest is just a list of the Top 10 in the world, nothing too bold there, any of those guys can win any tournament.
The questions is can you pick someone that no one expects?
If I had to pick 4 people that not many would expect, they’d be: Jamie Donaldson, Victor Dubuisson , Patrick Reed, Cameron Tringale.
Rich Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:57 pm
My list in the previous year (I’ve only done it for the past 2 years) had Adam Scott who won it that year as well. Correlation does not imply causation, but we are trying to determine the *likelihood* of winning an event based on past data. There has only been one 1st time invitee to win at ANGC which shows a relationship between experience of playing Augusta and winning. The odds of winning at ANGC despite missing the cut the week before are extremely unlikely which eliminates Cabrera. I don’t believe Blixt is a good fit for ANGC given his weak ballstriking. And as far as one ‘nobody expects’, I did list Paul Casey who would be in my top-5 picks. The numbers really like Casey this year.
Jafar
Apr 8, 2015 at 10:52 am
Yah I saw your Paul Casey pick as being someone who know ones expects to win.
I will keep my eye out for his name on the leaderboard.
AllBOdoesisgolf
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:21 pm
the fact that Tiger is 20/1 is laughable
Dan
Apr 6, 2015 at 12:52 pm
I wonder what odds the bookies would give to take the field against your 21 players?
I personally like your list but you’d have to agree that the stats don’t show everything!
Rich Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 2:07 pm
I agree, statistics do not show everything. But, statisticians do not create statistics with the goal in mind of showing everything because they know that more often than not it is impossible to do so. So their goal is to use historical data, trends, correlations, variances, etc. to help provide a more accurate understanding instead of a *perfect* understanding.
For ANGC, unless the weather conditions change dramatically, hitting it high, hitting it long, hitting it well from 175-225 yards and having experience playing ANGC fall right in line with the players most likely to play well.
Matt
Apr 6, 2015 at 12:50 pm
too short to play well at Augusta?? Zach Johnson won the event?? Very confused
Ed
Apr 6, 2015 at 12:55 pm
I kind of thought the same thing when I read that as Zach J was going to be one of my picks
Jm
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:07 pm
The year z johnson won was a year when weather and conditions played a big factor and eliminated some of the advantages that players who hit it long and high typically have at Augusta National
Matt
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:21 pm
If I recall correctly, ZJ won in ’07 during a very windy weekend. Plus he can’t putt for sheeeeeit.
Rich Hunt
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:52 pm
It was not only a windy weekend, it was record low temps. At the time I was living in Atlanta and the temps were in the 40’s with the wind. This made it extremely difficult to reach #13 and #15 in two shots and thus players had to lay-up on those holes and get into a wedge contest with Zach.
Keith
Apr 7, 2015 at 12:09 pm
That was my one and only Masters. I did not pack appropriately and had to buy a long sleeve pullover so I didn’t freeze to death! Ian Poulter wore really pink pants and patent leather pink shoes on Sunday…not sure why I remember that.
Jason
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:27 pm
He did win it once but overall his average finish is 37, with 5 missed cuts in 11 starts I can see how he missed the top 21.
Guantanemo
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:28 pm
The thing you have to realize is, the year Zach Johnson won, temperatures at Augusta were at historic lows, so the longer hitters weren’t able to take advantage of their length to reach the greens in two in par 5s. That’s why Zach, who was so deadly accurate with his wedges, was able to take advantage of the longer hitters’ disadvantage and score low on those holes. You have to realize that Augusta is a course that absolutely favors longer hitters under normal conditions, so the “too short to play well” is in fact a crucial metric.
SJ
Apr 6, 2015 at 1:31 pm
Pretty sure Mike Weir is even shorter than Zach, and misses more fairways. Last time I checked I he has a green jacket in his closet as well.