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Face the facts in putting: Controlling face angle

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Controlling face angle in putting is a tenacious task. The top players in the world even struggle with this on a daily basis. What about conventional golfers? Can controlling face angle really improve one’s ability to put the ball in the hole?

The short answer is yes, but there are many influencing factors: the style of the putter (face-balanced, plumber-neck, heel-shafted, center-shafted), head weight, posture, alignment, lie and loft, etc. All are factors that can aid a player in controlling face angle, for better or worse!

The purpose of this article is to inform golfers why this is crucial, what to look for when rolling putts and looking for a new putter, and how they can get better.

Note: Through this entire article, we are assuming centered contact with ball and putter head (center mass to center mass). Heel and toe strikes have minimal effect on the direction the ball rolls.

The main purpose of having a square face at impact is to start the ball on your intended start line, but that’s much easier said than done. As the loft on the club gets lower, the more influence face angle has on the direction a ball starts to move or roll. For example, with a 6 iron with a loft of approximately 28 degrees, face angle at impact has a 75 percent effect on the direction the ball launches. The other 25 percent is path. As the loft on the club decreases (i.e. a driver), gear effect aside, face angle has an 85 percent effect. With a putter with a loft of 2 degrees, the influence is greater than 90 percent. This is massive!

A putter face that is open 2 degrees at impact will miss the hole from 5 feet! For a putt to go in at 8 feet, the angle of the face needs to less than 1 degree open or closed to the target. Increase the distance to 15 feet and the putter face needs to less than 0.5 degrees open or closed to the target for the putt to go in. Can you tell the difference between a face angle that is 1-degree closed or open to your target line?

Article #3 Push Putt image

Consider the above statistics. Now consider the PGA Tour average of putts made from inside 5 feet, from 10 feet, and from greater than 10 feet. From the beginning of the 2014/2015 season until now (3.20.2015), here are the best putters from those distances according to PGATour.com.

  • Inside 5 feet: Vaughn Taylor — 99.25 percent
  • From 10 feet: Jerry Kelly — 71.43 percent
  • From greater than 10 feet: John Daly — 22.94 percent

Notice the drop from 10 feet to greater than 10 feet — it’s 48 percent! Remember, a face that is open by 1 degree will miss the hole from 8 feet. This is evidence that face angle outside of 10 feet is unyielding. Outside of 10 feet, most amateur players should focus on getting the proper speed for the putt, but inside 10 feet is where the magic happens. Controlling face angle is what the best players in the world do best.

When selecting a new putter, the style of the putter needs to compliment the style of stroke a player has. That’s why identifying what type of stroke you have is critical.

There are three generalized styles of putting stroke. 

  1. Straight back, straight through: The putter moves in a straight line away from the ball and straight through the ball.
  2. Minimum Arc: There’s a slight arc to the path of the putter head with minimal face rotation.
  3. Lots of arc and face rotation: The putter head moves with a noticeable arc and plenty of face rotation.

Golfers who have an arc to their stroke with more face rotation usually prefer or fit into toe-weighted or heel-shafted putters. This gives them more control over face angle at impact.

Golfers with less arc and face rotation generally fit into a plumber’s neck model putter. These putters generally suit strokes with minimal arc and face rotation.

Golfers who like the feel of a “straight-back, straight-through” stroke tend to favor a face-balanced putter. This is a generalized comment, because sometimes different putters feel and perform better to these golfers. Ultimately, the putter should feel comfortable and very natural throughout the stroke. It should also feel very easy to line up to the target.

Checking alignment can be tough to do without a laser or other types of calibrating tools. Typically, most golfers think they are lined up properly, but are not. Using a laser that can sit flush with the putter face is the most accurate way to test this.

Below is an example of how a laser can help identify face angle at address. If your face angle is not square to your target or start line, something would have to change somewhere through the stroke to get the face to square up.

I know some of you are thinking, “What about Billy Mayfair?” Mayfair cut every single putt he made and missed! His face angle was very open at impact during his prime. What he did very well was match his putter’s path to his face angle, so his path, which only has a 10 percent influence, complimented what direction his face was aligned. At Modern Golf, we would never encourage a player to emulate this style of putting. It is too difficult to repeat and adds a ton of cut spin to the roll of the ball. But if a golfer comes to us with this tendency and putts well, there is often no reason for him to change.

One way to work solely of the face angle of your putter at impact is to eliminate path as a variable. Using a putting arc, or a 2×4 piece of wood to run the heel of the putter along to eliminate any path deviation will isolate face angle, but this is only really applicable to short putts. At some point, there should be some arc in a golfer’s stroke.

If you are looking for a quick way to lower your putts on the course, isolate face angle. Work on putts inside 10 feet. These are the ones that have the highest percentage of going in regardless of outside variables. It takes commitment and some extra tools, but it’s one of the quickest way to lower your handicap.

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Modern Golf was founded in 2011 and has established a reputation as Canada’s Premier golf club-fitting experience. With a brand agnostic approach to club-fitting, a 13,000 square foot state-of-the-art headquarters including a PGA Tour caliber workshop, Modern Golf can provide a demonstrable improvement to your golf game. Regardless of our customers’ age, gender, or skill level, our highly trained club-fitters and experienced club builders can custom tailor our customers’ golf equipment to produce improved on-course results. The Modern Golf team is excited to share their expertise with the GolfWRX Community. www.moderngolf.ca

19 Comments

19 Comments

  1. Pingback: How to Improve Your Putting

  2. Samual Puttington

    Apr 1, 2015 at 6:35 pm

    HEY MODERN GOLF, what are the stats for people returning the face at impact to what they had at address? Pretty low, right? So then why so concerned with adjusting the address position to have a face pointed directly at the target when very few will return the putter face to that angle? Fir for stroke. Edel has it wrong.

    • Modern Golf Staff

      Apr 2, 2015 at 7:08 pm

      It’s all about creating consistency. It’s important to see where the alignment issue is (aligned left or right of target) and getting the player to feel and see the difference. If we can create a more consistent face angle at impact the player will develop more feel for distance and line.

  3. AJ Jensen

    Apr 1, 2015 at 4:22 pm

    Good article for sure. The main takeaway for me though is the idea that my driver is more sensitive to face angle than are the weaker clubs. This explains all the times I’ve KNOWN my driver’s swing path was correct at-and-after ball impact, yet my shot quickly took off on a lateral arc to the left or right

  4. lef

    Apr 1, 2015 at 11:27 am

    Lie angle is critical in the discussion and not brought up here. The amount of arc in the putting stroke is strong dictated by lie angle. When you set a putter down flat it tells you its natural arc. This is why It’s virtually impossible to truly putt straight back and straight through because putters don’t have a zero degree lie angle. I’ve been playing a face balanced centershafted putter for a decade with a moderately arcing stroke due to its lie. When I use a heal shafted toe heavy putter with the same lie angle and shaft length and weight I feel almost no difference. But if I use any style of putter with a different lie angle I immediately adopt the natural arc of that putter. If you want to feel the face closing find a putter with a longish shaft and a shallow lie. Its a much stronger effect than toe weight in my opinion.

  5. Brutus

    Apr 1, 2015 at 11:25 am

    It has been shown that without a doubt a putter path cannot move straight back and thru without the handle moving back linearly and maintaining it’s exact relative location to the head (i.e. hovering right over it as it slides back, speed of movement, etc…) Any variance between the 2 immediately introduces 2 arcs on 2 planes. Arc 1 as it lifts up the lowest point to the ground at address while swinging back. Even if it comes up a 1/2″, that’s an arc. And arc 2 as it swings inside (or outside) a straight path back. This is created as the putter head moves farther and faster than the handle and has to arc in the process. An analysis of Nicklaus’ stroke as he used to hunch way over and piston like pump his putt was close to straight back and through but still produced those 2 arcs inevitably.

    I bought that yellow swing path trainer your set of pictures show. It’s from Butch Harmon who developed Tiger into a putting force using this method in the early 2000’s. (See putting tips from Jim Flick and Butch in Golf Digest articles from 9/09 and 5/13 issues as they describe the Inside and Down the Line technique Butch teaches and this aid develops). I rarely think a new training device will give me 10% more driving distance or whatever, but I know practicing with this increased me putting from inside 10 feet to the tune of 3 to 4 less putts a round. I saw it in my scores and handicap improvement.

  6. Phil

    Mar 31, 2015 at 5:02 pm

    I am a heavily left eye dominant, right handed golfer. I constantly fight aiming too far right of target as my eyes are telling me I am aiming too far left. This results in me A trusting it and putting a good stroke on or B pushing the putt cos after the back swing my brain forces me to push the ball where my eyes think it should be going. I have been trying to use a ping ketsch with slight arc but am continually missing right. A return to my yes Morgan (Napa) type blade fixes this but I really want the ketsch to work as so much more forgiving…

    • Mike

      Apr 1, 2015 at 12:37 pm

      Try a putter with less offset (center shafted to 1/2). If you are like me (left eye dominate playing right handed golf), I aim better with a center shafted or at most a 1/2 offset putter. When I grab a 3/4 to full offset putter I aim too far to the left of target.

    • talljohn777

      Apr 1, 2015 at 1:38 pm

      I have had the same issue. Put a line on your ball, get behind your intended line and using both your eyes binocularly place the ball on your intended line with the line on the ball matching up with your intended line of putt, then step into your putt with the putter lining up with the line on your ball, now your putter is correctly aimed on your intended line, stroke the ball, make the putt.

  7. Rick Wright

    Mar 31, 2015 at 4:40 pm

    LASER OPTICS is actually the original putter alignment laser. My patented technology (US only) has been around for over 15 years. In 2013, I upgraded to a high power green laser, which can be seen prominently outdoors. I further changed the design allowing for the instructor/user to trace the aim line on the putting surface. This change allows assessment of alignment on straight or breaking putts from any length. Hurrion approached me at the 2014 PGA Show with the desire to have me develop an alignment laser specifically for the Quintic Ball Roll System. After prototypes were provided I never heard from him again. Although, I see he didn’t bother to change the shape of the laser base. Oh well, that’s the golf industry for you.

  8. M

    Mar 31, 2015 at 3:02 pm

    Modern Golf – What if you have natural aiming tendencies due to eye dominance, etc? Wouldn’t changing a person to aim directly at the hole (if they are slightly off) cause their eyes and proprioception to send conflicting messages? How many professional golfers actual aim within the hole at 10 feet or more?

    • Modern Golf Staff

      Apr 2, 2015 at 6:52 pm

      This is not a what if, everyone has a dominant eye and tendencies due to this. The key is to find a putter that is easier to line up. Right eye dominant players have an easier time lining up putters with left offset. Also, they tend to have an open stance to their target to see the line better. using a laser will help identify what direction the alignment is off.
      Golf professionals struggle with this as well. They are human! The difference is they know their tendencies and have a good feel for alignment. outside of 10 feet the best putters in the world are making just over 20% of their putts.

  9. Paul

    Mar 31, 2015 at 12:56 pm

    I use a plumbers neck ping anser style putter. I have a slight arc.

    I often feel like I have to grip the putter firmly to stop the face closing over, which produces pulls if I leave it to go. Should I be using a face balanced putter?

    • M

      Mar 31, 2015 at 2:59 pm

      No you should be using a putter with more arc to allow the face to open more on the backswing. Then you won’t feel like you have to stop the putter from releasing.

      Try a Shea H or a Zing and see if it feels like you can release the putter more freely.

      • Rick Wright

        Mar 31, 2015 at 5:43 pm

        A putter does not create arc, the golfer does. With a couple of friends/colleagues I have developed the math which will plot an individual’s signature path based upon set up, posture, and relationship to ball position. If the golfer’s path does not match the projected path (usually due to preconceived notions), there is manipulation. The brain can typically manage small degrees of manipulation, but greater degrees can result in accuracy, impact, and ultimately, distance control issues.

        • talljohn777

          Apr 1, 2015 at 1:43 pm

          And why are you not sharing the information with the rest of the golf world???

        • Tiger Hoods

          Apr 1, 2015 at 6:37 pm

          Every putter has a rotational value that is engineered into the design. If that value doesn’t fit the rotational requirement of the golfer the golfer will feel off. I learned that from a great instructor at puttertalk.com

        • Modern Golf Staff

          Apr 2, 2015 at 6:25 pm

          Interesting Rick! We would love to chat more regarding the applied math. Maybe this is something we can implement here at Modern Golf.

        • Stretch

          Apr 4, 2015 at 11:17 am

          Nicely stated Rick. The manipulation is what leads to yippy strokes. The root cause of the manipulation is having the eyes aligned differently to the intended line the ball needs to roll on.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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