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Gear Trials Feedback: A letter from the editor

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First of all, thank you so much to all of you who took the time to read 2015 Gear Trials: Best Drivers and comment on the story. In the 24+ hours since it’s been published, we’ve set records in views and comments. I’m grateful that Gear Trials has gained the traction it has across the golf world, because I know it will support many golfers’ desire to buy the best driver for them, and play the best golf they can.

A few questions continue to pop up about Gear Trials, however, and I want to take the opportunity to address them. Those who read this will better understand why we did what we did with Gear Trials, and why we’re going to continue to do it.

The two questions I am addressing are:

  • Why don’t we rank clubs in terms of launch, spin and ball speed?
  • Why don’t we name a “best” club?

The short answer? It’s a disservice, and a practice that I believe is more harmful than it is helpful.

With our Gear Trials lists, we hope to empower more golfers to make decisions based on what clubs are best for them. Don’t buy a club because it’s good for a group of testers, or voted “best” by an organization. The only reason golfers should make the purchase of a new club is if it brings them the joy of better performance, more confidence, or both.

Golfers should be excited by the process of discovering what clubs performs best for them! Test different heads, preferably with a top-rated professional fitter, and see which one gives you the ball flight you need. Spend some time looking at different models at address to learn what shape inspires confidence in you, and what sound and feel makes your next shot more exciting. That’s how it’s done on the PGA Tour, and that’s how we hope our readers will learn to buy new clubs.

We understand that our readers want to make the most informed decision they possibly can, and we have great respect for the passion they have to play better golf. That’s why we went to the most reputable club fitters we know and asked them to offer our readers the safety of their expertise. With their votes, you can buy any of the seven drivers (or their low-spin equivalents) on our 2015 Gear Trials: Best Drivers List and you cannot make a bad choice!

Differences do exist between the seven models on the list, of course, and we did our best to highlight them fairly in Gear Trials and our individual reviews. But some of you have requested more, so here’s a few anecdotes of what we would face if we were to name “bests.”

  • TaylorMade’s R15 (460) is the lowest-spinning driver we’ve tested when it’s used by a golfer who consistently hits tee shots on the center of the face. When properly fit to that kind of player, it creates the highest-launching, lowest-spinning drives that tend to go farther than just about everything else. But if a golfer is more inconsistent, the R15 could actually be the highest-spinning driver on our list with the slowest ball speeds and it could fly the shortest — especially if it’s fit improperly.
  • Ping’s G30 is the highest-spinning driver on this list when it’s hit on the screws. Give it to a high-spin golfer, and it could be the shortest driver on this list. But if it’s used by a golfer who misses the center of the face consistently, or a low-spin golfer, it will probably be the longest driver on this list.

How do we know which driver will work best for you? We don’t, and I’m not ashamed to say so. But you can find out.

We’ve given you the best starting point we know how, and how it goes from here is up to you. Are you up to the challenge? Everything I know about GolfWRX readers tells me that you are.

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46 Comments

46 Comments

  1. Eugene Marchetti

    Mar 29, 2015 at 6:38 pm

    I just finished attending a Demo day at my club with all the major brands available. I used the test results to start my search. Knowing that I wanted forgiveness over distance, I had already eliminated some models. I got down to my favorite three based on feel, looks, set up, and ball flight. I then went on the computer and made my choice. The numbers said Nike Speed. It gave me the best smash rate(1.47),spin 2580, and launch 12. I realize the launch was a little low but I was getting great flight and carry. Swing speed was 94 and my overall distance was 232. I went to the Demo Day wanting to buy a mizuno 850 because of its beautiful blue color but my smash factor was inconsistent. Ping G30 was the closest to Nike but the head shape was to elongated and a little light. I appreciate your article and hope you keep up the good work. Bottom line:GET FIT!!!!!’

  2. Lindsay Morrison

    Mar 27, 2015 at 10:19 am

    “We’ve given you the best starting point we know how, and how it goes from here is up to you. Are you up to the challenge? Everything I know about GolfWRX readers tells me that you are.”

    I guess I’ll just go to the store next time without this. If I’m in the market for a new driver this article wouldn’t help. It’s a waste of time puff piece.

    That’s a shame, but that’s what it is. There was not much trial in this 2015 gear trial.

    • Alex

      Mar 29, 2015 at 5:09 pm

      Ideally it would help you start from a position of knowledge. You’d still need to test, but if you know your trends in terms of hit pattern and spin, then you’d know which driver to start with, and which other ones to look at.

      It’s pretty obvious. Of course, if you were just going to test everything anyway to figure out which one is best, then by all means, go for it. But it’s getting old when people expect to find the best driver out. They’re all different. Best is relative. Reviews are relative too. In fact, a review is pointless. But people want to see them anyway.

  3. Lindsay Morrison

    Mar 27, 2015 at 9:50 am

    “We’ve given you the best starting point we know how, and how it goes from here is up to you. Are you up to the challenge? Everything I know about GolfWRX readers tells me that you are.”

    I guess I’ll just go to the store next time without this. If I’m in the market for a new driver this article wouldn’t help. It’s a waste of time puff piece.

    That’s a shame, but that’s what it is.

  4. Stickburn

    Mar 27, 2015 at 6:29 am

    These comments reviews reads like what I have seen as a millennial mindset. 1. I want what I want and I want it now. 2. If the product/info I seek is not what I want then somebody has done something wrong. 3. You have waisted my time by not giving me what I want. 4. My way is the right way and let me tell YOU how to do it right. Bonus characteristics: I am special and will not support you because you have sold out. I will now take my business/time elsewhere.

  5. Dave N

    Mar 26, 2015 at 9:40 pm

    Thank you for what you do. The Gear Trial piece and this response letter were very well done, and I actually like the approach. The message is obvious, and made me want to try out some new drivers. Too many people tend to look to someone else for the answers for 10 more yards and 3-4 more fairways hit. What they get from analyzing a bunch of trackman from someone else is beyond me. Worse yet is a purely data-based analysis of “averages” of many golfers who aren’t me. It may be interesting for about 30 seconds, but mostly useless. The answer is on the course. Pick any or all of the drivers on the list, try it out, ask a fitter for help if you want, and then hit the range.

  6. Gorden

    Mar 26, 2015 at 8:08 pm

    If your over a 15 handicap and have played golf for more then 10 years your have a greater chance of being a 16 long before you are a 12.. So play what ever clubs you want, a simple fitting is going to work for you and playing what you want to play is really one of the best thrills in golf. If you love Ping , play Ping, if you like how Adams look and feel play Adams….playing what you like as a middle to high handicap can make the game just as fun as if you spent thousands on lessons and fittings and lowerd your handicap 2 points….Sometimes loading your bag on a cart with those shinny new Callaway irons looking at you is the best part of anyones golf day.

    • Rich

      Mar 27, 2015 at 9:05 am

      This is so right. I’ve just done that with my irons and while they might not be as forgiving as my last set, they look sick and when I’m swinging well, they are awesome performers as well. Good comment!

  7. Jason

    Mar 26, 2015 at 7:35 pm

    I can appreciate this response from Golfwrx. While it’s true no head/shaft combo is going to play the same for everyone, it would be beneficial to hit them all with an iron byron – put the exact same shaft with each head and hit the ball off 9 areas on the face – heel/center/toe and high/mid/low on the face. Then just post the trackman numbers. At least then readers would have some data to go by to figure out what they need. All we get from this is a regurgitation of the most popular drivers that everyone already knew about anyway.

    • CatFoodFace

      Mar 26, 2015 at 9:04 pm

      Actually, a great idea! I can make my own decision based on numbers.

  8. Rich

    Mar 26, 2015 at 6:21 pm

    I can appreciate that Golfwrx doesn’t want to say “this is the best driver” period, but I think what people are saying, ithe gear trial doesn’t give you much more info than what you find on the manufacturers websites really. At least last year there was the little sliding table to give an indication of the numbers you might see from certain clubs compared to the others on the list. There’s nothing wrong with that and if anyone got upset with those indications and ended up with the wrong club I dare say, they would be in the minority. It’s just a guess, but I bet one of the manufacturers got a little upset at Golfwrx for publishing that one of their clubs wasn’t as low spinning or forgiving as the next and they had to change their method. But they are hardly going to admit that are they.

  9. Tom

    Mar 26, 2015 at 6:18 pm

    No good deed goes unpunished.

    • JillC

      Mar 27, 2015 at 11:21 am

      It’s easy! Don’t call it a “Trial” unless you actually test the products against each other. For me? I want the best possible driver for my swing. That’s impossible because nobody swings like me. Have the Iron Byron test, hit it in the 9 areas of the club face, vary the shafts (high and low launch), and perhaps do the AOA differently i.e. good golfer have positive AOA while bad once tend to have negative AOA. Then this would be a trial. Agree the intent was great, but if the effort is too compare and test, then do it the right way and it will be better than anyone else! I can foresee: “Go to Golfwrx for the best tests and comparisons!”

  10. M Crossfizzle

    Mar 26, 2015 at 4:25 pm

    I hope everyone feels ashamed of their self…
    You want the truth about the best driver
    come to yt and get stuck in

  11. The dude

    Mar 26, 2015 at 4:01 pm

    Great article Zak……remember, some people will never get it….

  12. johnnyb

    Mar 26, 2015 at 3:21 pm

    Wow, you mean to tell me that the PING, Taylormade, Callaway, Titleist, ETC. all make good drivers if properly fit! Wow, this is groundbreaking news that we must push out to the public immediately! Let’s call our study “Gear trials” and it will sound awesome, and everyone will know how cool it is, and then they will know that the big golf companies all make awesome drivers that are all tied for awesomeness if fitted properly! Because all the drivers are so awesome and equally tied for awesomeness it would be a “disservice” to pick one, because all of them are tied for most awesome if fitted for equal players at equal levels of awesomeness!

  13. Adam B.

    Mar 26, 2015 at 3:04 pm

    I don’t get this at all. I am a scratch golfer, high swing speed, and high spin. I got fitted yesterday and the G30 was 400 rpm less spin for me than the R15 430. How can you say G30 would only be best for inconsistent or low spin players. You just added to the ambiguity of your entire study by giving such odd anecdotes. If you include the data, then you don’t have to try to justify it with confusing statements like this.

    • TR1PTIK

      Mar 26, 2015 at 5:10 pm

      Perhaps the reason you got better numbers with the G30 is because it was easier for you to find the center of the face or the fact that it is a far more forgiving club…

      • other paul

        Mar 27, 2015 at 2:01 am

        More then likely you hit a tiny bit high on the g30 and a tiny bit low on the r15. Studies have shown a half inch vertically can be 1000rpm different in spin.

  14. Geoff

    Mar 26, 2015 at 2:55 pm

    Golfwrx has influence on the industry. Its many articles on the benefits of club fitting are one of its stronger attributes. To me, Gear Trials was promoted as an extension of the benefits of club fitting. Yet, I haven’t read anything that convinces me it is any different than a hot list or other generic review piece. As a matter of fact, it reads very similar. Just because club fitters made the decisions means nothing if the insight and opinions of those club fitters, along with their hard data, is generalized or omitted in print. It simply makes it look like Golfwrx does not want to take a chance at rattling the cage of a major manufacturer. It certainly doesn’t help that you encourage golfers not to be influenced by what a group of testers say, to go out and try different clubs, and to seek out a professional fitter, while including direct links to ‘buy now’ from manufacturer’s store fronts and Amazon.com.

  15. Toms1090

    Mar 26, 2015 at 2:24 pm

    i get what you were trying to accomplish. But I think the gear trials would be better if you included those anecdotes. Knowing a driver is a spin monster when not hit pure is useful. Also, if your prasing getting fit don’t include a link to amizon to buy it.

  16. Robert

    Mar 26, 2015 at 2:04 pm

    That’s the most ridiculous argument I’ve ever heard of in my life to not report specifics. You can’t be worried about what people do when they mis hit the club. You report on what happens when you hit the club in the center of the face. That’s what the clubs are designed to do. You really wasted a lot of time and money on this because this list does nothing for any one trying to look for a new club. I want the best ball speeds and from your article I have no idea what to look for. So I’m in the same boat I was before I read your article. I just feel bad that you asked for the time of so many fitters when so little came about this. It’s not about you telling us what you think is the best driver for us. It’s about providing all of the information and letting us digest it and letting us decide for ourselves what to do with that information. You can’t just not provide it because some people will not interpret the results correctly. That’s leaving so many people in the dark that could really use this information. The ones that don’t have good fitters in our area’s and have to either go to sites like this to get information or go spends hundreds or thousands of dollars trying out different equipment until we find the right one. You could easily provide the info and make no claims about what you think is the best. What a waste…sad.

    • KnifeCut

      Mar 26, 2015 at 2:11 pm

      This reads a little terse, but I agree with the what was was said.

    • Incredulistic

      Mar 26, 2015 at 2:14 pm

      Robert you could always start your own golf equipment site and do reviews like you seem to think they should be done.

      • KnifeCut

        Mar 26, 2015 at 2:49 pm

        Kind of passive aggressive. Let’s be real… the members of WRX are why this place it is what is now.

        Why start your own site? This place is great because most (and often the best) of the content is user-generated.

        The majority of the reviews here (both formal and informal) are user reviews. In this instance, they’re infinitely more valuable than the gear trial. We were fed the line that the Gear Trials were going to be the bee’s knees and it’s not exactly the case.

      • Robert

        Mar 26, 2015 at 2:49 pm

        Fair enough, but why even spend the time doing all of this if you are just going say, “These 7 drivers were the best!”. Without any type of numbers or data about them? It just seems like a waste of time. When this site does reviews of clubs or balls, they actually have launch number data with them, but when doing a gear trial for all of the drivers in which they tout it as better than any other test because they get club fitters to do the testing…they provide no stats. No numbers. It just seems incredibly odd. And I find the excuse to be pretty ridiculous.

    • Chris Nickel

      Mar 26, 2015 at 2:26 pm

      You honestly can’t read through the list and understand that of all the drivers on the market, there are 7 which are generally much better? You can’t read the literature to see that if your #1 criteria is ball speed, then all you have to do is pick a couple heads to hit yourself and see what gives you the best results? I understand people being critical. That’s fine. However, I don’t see why WRX should be responsible for people who are too lazy to do anything constructive with the information they’ve provided. I’ll save you hundreds of dollars. Everything is at .830 COR…I’m sure you already know this. Ball speed will come as a function of which club allows you to make the most consistent center-face contact. That’s impossible for anyone to figure out for you. Why would you want to buy a driver based solely on what works best for someone else?

      • Robert

        Mar 26, 2015 at 2:55 pm

        But there is no quantifiable measurement in why those 7 drivers are the best and how they are ranked the best. And they don’t have them broken up into the 3 factors in which they tested. They could have at least done that. That couldn’t have been that hard to do. The drivers are all close to each other, that’s why having testing done like this is important. It’s good to see what a large variety of testing shows between a large group of people. Where I live I can’t go anywhere and just get fitted for a driver and grab a couple of heads. I have to go buy a couple of heads and shafts to try it out. So this list does nothing for me in the current state. I knew these 7 drivers were considered the best before this article. That’s nothing new.

        • Chris Nickel

          Mar 26, 2015 at 3:38 pm

          There is quantifiable measurement. It’s just doesn’t appear for public consumption. I would think you could easily narrow the list down to a couple heads to try and go from there. If you live that far away from a place to get fit, I get that’s more difficult – but what happens if WRX release a bunch of the data and anecdotes and based on this you select driver xxx. You buy this driver, but b/c you never corroborated their data with your experience, you don’t actually know if that driver is the absolute best for you. You might as well select lower spin or higher spin and then pick the head you like the best…that would be just as reasonable as basing your purchase entirely off someone else’s experiences…Or start a thread in the forum and get more feedback that way…

    • TR1PTIK

      Mar 26, 2015 at 5:05 pm

      Do you hit the ball in the center of the club face? If so, which club face? If not, which club face do you most often approach center? Spitting out a bunch of numbers that come from perfect strikes that you will never achieve with significant repetition is pointless. You should be looking for the a club that provides the best numbers for you. The 2015 Gear Trials gives you a good starting point to assess which driver(s) you should be testing to determine which is best for YOU. Why do you want numbers provided by robots that you’ll never be able to achieve?

  17. ca1879

    Mar 26, 2015 at 1:54 pm

    The article was very well done and did not attempt to prove anything from the data that couldn’t be supported. You showed excellent restraint in your recommendations and the results were presented clearly and with appropriate suggestions for using them. It’s hard to understand what significant fault could be found, but cynicism is a popular substitute for insight these days. The internet is full of those who think that pointing out the obvious about the economics of web publishing makes an argument to support whatever view they take of the content.

    • Zak Kozuchowski

      Mar 26, 2015 at 1:56 pm

      Thank you for your very kind words, and we’re glad to have your support.

    • TR1PTIK

      Mar 26, 2015 at 4:58 pm

      +1

  18. KnifeCut

    Mar 26, 2015 at 1:44 pm

    The approach didn’t work because it literally says it’s a starting point… it’s not even finished. Reminds me of a virtual demo day.

    I’m sure most would agree it’s far better for people to critique your data and method of collection than be criticized for not including it at all.

    There are plenty of people who agree it’s lots of puff with little substance.

    Sorry.

  19. Geoff

    Mar 26, 2015 at 1:21 pm

    This was promoted as having a few tricks up its sleeve but, after all the hype, there isn’t anything in the results that hasn’t already been provided by a manufacturer’s marketing team or a publication’s puff piece. It provides about as much useful information as a list on BuzzFeed. This plays out like an obvious attempt by Golfwrx to do what other golf magazines have done in the past with their so called reviews: get manufacturer’s to link their web sites to that of the reviewer, generating more web traffic and ad revenue for said reviewer. And…it appears they are on their way to achieving exactly that. The second sentence of this letter states: “In the 24+ hours since it’s been published, we’ve set records in views and comments.”

    Mission accomplished.

    • Zak Kozuchowski

      Mar 26, 2015 at 1:26 pm

      Have you been fit for a driver recently, Geoff?

      • Geoff

        Mar 26, 2015 at 1:42 pm

        Yes.

        • Zak Kozuchowski

          Mar 26, 2015 at 1:44 pm

          What worked best for you?

          • Geoff

            Mar 26, 2015 at 1:48 pm

            How is my decision relevant to my opinion?

            • Zak Kozuchowski

              Mar 26, 2015 at 1:57 pm

              I don’t know that it is, but I’m curious to know what driver worked best for you.

  20. Chris Nickel

    Mar 26, 2015 at 1:08 pm

    Marginally better? Just b/c some of the results look similar, doesn’t mean the process was at all the same – What I don’t understand is why critics can’t accept that maybe this year had what a lot of us have experienced to be true: There are a lot of great drivers from OEM’s in 2015. The approach did work. Trackman data confirmed what some of the best fitters in the country have seen. Unless I don’t understand how the Hotlist etc. is created, I believe this process was much different. If WRX said the R15 was the driver of the year, not only would it be a disservice (as one driver can’t be the best for everyone) but critics would jump at the opportunity to dissect and pick apart how WRX came to this conclusion and people would be arguing whether or not it was really 1.2 yards longer than driver XXX.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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