Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

The media’s war on golf instructors

Published

on

If you watch golf on television these days, you might think that golf instructors are ruining the game. Certainly the travails of Tiger Woods have offered up plenty of ammunition for the anti-instruction movement so obviously embraced by just about every commentator on the Golf Channel and PGA Tour broadcasts. Their argument is a simple one: too much information ruins the “natural” ability of the players who seek help from instructors.

Just this week, Sean O’Hair gave an interview that was hailed by every media person who commented on it as an honest assessment of how too much instruction ruined his game, and only now that he was “finding his own game” was he finding success again.

Tiger’s problems have been laid directly on Sean Foley, who, as the pundits would have you believe, had Tiger working on a swing technique guaranteed to hurt his back and give him the short game yips. Brandel Chamblee has gone as far as stating that “Tiger has had the greatness coached out of him,” and “modern golf instruction is a cancer on the game.” According to Johnny Miller, anyone who qualifies to play on the PGA Tour is already good enough and should never change anything.

Of course, Miller forgets that every year a bunch of players lose their card due to substandard play, while every player not yet on the big tour tries to improve enough to get there. The desire to improve is a constant characteristic of successful athletes.

In a game as complex as golf, the player can’t be expected to understand the nuances of all the technique he or she uses to navigate around the course, and the truth is most players don’t want to think about what they are doing. But the game is so difficult that there will always be periods of poor play, and the player will naturally begin to worry about retaining his position in the game.

Golf instructors usually have some sort of playing background, and if they have been tabbed by a Tour player to be a coach it is for a good reason. It is vital to remember that no instructor can be on the range at a Tour event unless they are invited to be there. The player has to request credentials for the teacher, and the teacher cannot be on the range without the player. In other words, instruction is entirely voluntary.

I was hired by Kevin Streelman last June when he was unhappy with his game and the look of his swing. He had missed four straight cuts and was frustrated enough to seek different advice.

No teacher or player has all the answers to the game of golf. Golf instructors have preferences, and players who like to look at or measure their swings develop their own preferences as well. My vision of the swing is readily available on my website, and Kevin liked what he saw, so he contacted me. He wanted to change a swing pattern that had bothered him for years and that he felt he was not making progress on.

Players know their deficiencies. They also know that if they are not among the top players, a small retreat in performance will mean a loss of playing status. You can imagine the angst that exists after an extended slump. My point here is that while the players on the Tour are certainly good enough to get there, they may not be good enough to stay there, and they may not be able to improve enough to move up into the top echelon of players.

If they are not technically oriented and already have a great work ethic, then what is left for them to do? Who is going to offer them better direction or an answer to the problems they encounter when simply practicing all day doesn’t help? Every great tennis professional has a coach. All the major team sports have instructors for every aspect of their game. They all use video obsessively, and every movement is analyzed in super slow motion as the coaches look to correct technique flaws. Hitting, pitching, fielding, blocking, tackling, covering, every play is recorded, every practice is recorded, and the whole team spends huge amounts of time watching and going over technique.

Why has it been decided that to do that in golf is such a horrible thing?

I compare my job to that of a NASCAR mechanic. I don’t drive the car and I’m not going to tell the driver how to drive. I just get the car running as well as I can so that the player doesn’t have to worry about it. How to organize the information and simplify the thought process is ultimately the job of the player, because he is the car and the driver.

It is ironic that just about every golf commentator is a former player who is not playing anymore. They have all lost their status for one reason or another, and now it seems that all of them have forgotten where they came from. No one wants to stop playing the Tour. There is no top-100 player who would trade his status for a spot in front of the Golf Channel cameras. You would have to think that every commentator who lost their card sought some sort of instruction in order to avoid their eventual demise, instruction that obviously failed. Such an experience would definitely color how they view instruction now.

Again, it is important to remember that the players control who instructs them, or whether they get instruction at all. This is true from the club level all the way to the Tour. No one is being forced to take a lesson.

My lesson book is open to whoever wants to sign up. If no one signs up, I don’t teach. If Kevin hadn’t sought out my advice, you wouldn’t see me on the range at Tour events, just like you wouldn’t see Butch Harmon, Todd Anderson, Sean Foley, Pete Cowan, or any other teacher of Tour players you can name.

No teacher is seeking to fill up a student’s mind with information that the player doesn’t ask for. Teachers use different methods to be sure, and some use more technology than others. But in the final analysis, if the results aren’t there the coach gets fired.

Teachers are hired to help. Almost every player has someone they look to for help and advice. What prompted this article is the television media’s decision to focus on the players who have suffered a loss of performance under the tutelage of an instructor, while ignoring the success stories. Meanwhile, Michael Breed is ever present on the Golf Channel, with, you guessed it, golf instruction.

Go figure.

Your Reaction?
  • 303
  • LEGIT71
  • WOW13
  • LOL19
  • IDHT5
  • FLOP12
  • OB3
  • SHANK41

Wayne has been playing tournament golf for more than 40 years and teaching golf for over 27 years. He is the Director of Instruction at Lakewood CC in Rockville, Maryland and is founder of the Wayne Defrancesco Golf Learning Center (WDGLC). Wayne has spent countless hours analyzing some of the greatest golf legends both past and present in order to teach his Pivot Compression Golf Swing technique. Visit www.waynedefrancesco.com and you will spend hours watching FREE videos and reading articles created with the sole purpose to help people become the best golfers they can be. Become a better ball striker with Wayne's Pivot Compression Golf Swing DVD: www.compressiongolf.com

52 Comments

52 Comments

  1. Jay K.

    Aug 23, 2016 at 2:38 am

    Maybe, If Brandel Chamblee had worked regularly with a golf instructor, He’d have won more than 1 time while on tour. But, I doubt it.

  2. Jeff

    Apr 2, 2015 at 12:45 am

    War. Good metaphor. How many golf instructors have been killed or maimed so far and why hasn’t it been on Fox News yet?

  3. Provisional

    Mar 30, 2015 at 8:22 pm

    Yeah, Foley really messed Tiger up:
    2013- 5 wins out of 16 starts, 1st on money list with 8.5 million, 2nd in scoring average.
    Have any of the critics (particularly Brandel Chamblee) bothered to spend time with the instructors whose livelyhood they bash?
    BTW the V1 software is a great tool to see what you are actually doing in your swing versus what you think you are doing. $5 on the App Store. Went from 9hdcp to 4 in one season with 5 lessons from local MAPGA Professional using V1.
    Keep on keepin em honest Wayne.

    • Manga

      Apr 17, 2015 at 12:02 pm

      I honestly don’t think that Brandel Chamblee believes 90% of what he says. It’s true that golfers on the PGA Tour are ridiculously good, but everyone needs instruction. It’s likely the case that they are getting the wrong instruction or become to mechanical with some of their changes. Golf is hard, so is learning a new swing action. Foley may be trying to teach something that Tiger just can’t learn at this stage or with his body. That’s not to say instruction is worthless.

  4. Pingback: The Lemon Drop Kid | Life on Tour

  5. golferjack

    Mar 27, 2015 at 3:17 am

    Interesting article, can’t really comment on the commentators as I don’t see enough of them being in Europe and not USA. Regarding Tiger and Sean Foley however I have to say there is only one Person who is responsible for Tiger’s Situation and that is Tiger himself. Why would anyone who had won the Masters, British Open and US Open by record margins want to Change their swing? At the time he was with Butch Harmon Tiger could win with his “C” Game, with his “A”game he was unstopable. Maybe his “friend” Mark O Meara didn’t do him any favors taking him to Hank, maybe he needed that, who are we to judge, but Foley is not to blame for his Problems. As far as coaches go, I wouldn’t presume to know what a tour pro Needs but in this modern era we have many more Players who shoot really low and that is not just Equipment and better agronomy or balls it also has to do with the Level of Coaching available today.

  6. Roger

    Mar 25, 2015 at 2:41 pm

    A simple flowing swing built on not too much thought is a winner.
    Announcers need controversy so you keep listening.
    In 20 years i have had 3 coaches, all like Wayne D
    Low tech, great communicators

  7. Mitch

    Mar 25, 2015 at 11:55 am

    Wayne D – you are my favorite coach – thus the reason I subscribe to your website. I like your style because you show what great golfers do and why they are great, the evidence is all encompassing. I don’t know why there is this negative sentiment to modern methods of teaching. if a player can use track man to get instant feed back on their swing and ball flight, why wouldn’t they use it? Data supports that over time, proximity to the hole equates to better scores which = more winnings on tour. Can’t blame tour players on their obsession with swing mechanics when its a sure fire way to make more money.

  8. wayne defrancesco

    Mar 24, 2015 at 8:33 pm

    If any of the comments here were made by people who were out on Tour watching the best players from close up they would absolutely understand just how good you have to be to be to keep your Tour card, how much better you have to be to be in the top 50, how much better than that you have to be to make the Tour Championship, how much better than that you have to be to be in the top 10, and how much better than that you have to be to be in the conversation around being #1. Every player is looking for every possible way to improve. If they decide to overhaul their swing they find someone they think can do it and make them better. Most times they get tired of patterns that they believe are holding them back. Thinking about nothing changes nothing. I don’t think you’ll find a guy out there who thinks he’s “got it” and no longer has to worry about improving. Instructors are using technology because they think it can help them help the players. I happen to not use Trackman, force plates, 3D, or any other of the newer technological innovations that have come along to analyze swings and ball flight. I use a video camera and V1 software, and I have a large library of the swings of the greatest players to play the game. I was a good player in my day, and I know what a good swing should feel like. I’m very hands on when I teach, because I believe that is the best way to get someone to feel what I would like them to do. I have a certain vision of the swing and how it works best, and that is what people sign up for when they come to me for help. I would never, and I believe that goes for any good instructor, take apart a swing and overhaul it unless there was nothing there to work with. There aren’t any Tour players who fit that description. Players long for simplicity, not complication, but many of them like to understand the details of what they are doing. It is entirely up to the player to decide how to use the information they are getting on the golf course.

  9. Gorden

    Mar 24, 2015 at 6:39 pm

    Most all the big name golf instructors have books out on how to play the game…I got caught up with what each one was saying and have a stack of books as tall as me now, I became crazed trying to find two of them that had the same swing ideas (zero). After about 20 years and dozens of DVD’s to go along with my golf book insanity I just settled on the Todd Graves, Moe Norman type swing and have never played better or understood what I was doing. Scores are way better and lost balls almost a forgotten event and a simple swing that you can figure out what your doing wrong as you walk between shots.

  10. Patricknorm

    Mar 24, 2015 at 5:50 pm

    Very good article regarding golf coaches. What’s changed golf really since Tiger Woods won his first PGA event is money. Because Woods was the benchmark for pro golf, his success meant a huge increase in the purses for golf. Top players now have “stables” of instructors, fitness gurus, nutritionists, psychologists, trackman, agents, etc. Today a player like Rory McIlroy plans his year based on the majors. But really what he’s doing is maximizing his earning potential.
    All great athletes need mentors, advisors, a guardian angel to compete professionally. With the advent of the Internet over the last 20 years golf instruction can now be quantified and studied to death. And blame the Golf Channel for the endless stream of talking heads, who frankly need something to talk about. Generally golf is a boring, plodding , tactical sport. So the commentators have to fill space with their inanities. It’s always about money.

  11. Wendell

    Mar 24, 2015 at 3:00 pm

    I love watching golf and my time to watch is limited due to work… it frustrates me to no end hearing golf announcers waste my valuable time ranting about teaching in the game. Teaching will not go away… that is a certainty. So why all the focus on this issue? I almost walked away from the game a few years ago due to uncontrolled hooking… I went looking for help… 2 lessons later it was simplified for me in what I need to do. I spent the entire winter working on my swing with a shifted focus towards where the club head was and ensuring I didn’t get it too inside that caused the extreme in to out path with a closed face. I have respect for teaching and what it can accomplish. Sure it may seem to be over the top in regards to the amount of analysis that we get from the high tech era however all things evolve in time.

  12. Jer

    Mar 24, 2015 at 1:32 pm

    This may be the longest article I’ve ever seen on this site;) but anyhow, in my own personal opinion, it brings up a question of all of the technology in the game now versus the past. Meaning before every player had a trackman next to them on the range, and a camera from three different angles showing every intricacy or flaw in a tour players swing, does this have an affect on the players mind? Always trying to remain consistent per the numbers popping up on the screen, or vice versa trying to change what’s showing on trackman has got to mess with your head as well. I can’t put blame on the instructors, I just think there is too much going on… and this brings back Sean O’hair and his logics of just having fun and playing “his” game, not what the shot analyzer or the teacher that is trying to mold hardened clay. I guess I would be contradicting myself by saying some limited observation couldn’t hurt, but feel everything else packaged together probably gets a bit overwhelming and I would personally lose my mind trying to match data and video.

    I probably am way off, and have no clue what I’m talking about….but my theory and thoughts on being taught, is I’d rather have someone spend 15 minutes with me, give their thoughts, rather than hours trying to mold me into something that in turn will probably hurt my game. And meaning hurt it by trying to meet to much mental criteria, and in turn me losing my natural swing thoughts.

  13. LI Golfer

    Mar 24, 2015 at 12:16 pm

    Perhaps this article would have been better served if it wasnt written by a golf instructor, a “victim” of the “media war on Golf Instructors”…………..A little overwrought and whiny, no?

    On the other hand, Miller (who I can give the benefit of being a tour winner) and Chamblee (who I totally understand is a pot stirrer, because thats his job) need to put the focus of this discussion on the PLAYERS WHO HIRE THESE SPECIFIC INSTRUCTORS!!!!!! Tiger hired Foley and Haney b/c he wanted what they were selling. Same with all the other golfers. They are in control of the process and certainly can say “Enough” when it comes to Trackman Numbers. The players are pushing the agenda.

    Besides, if Tiger Woods continued to win on Tour, would we even be having this conversation???? Woods was unstoppable under Harmon and still winning under Haney. Isnt it his fault and not Sean Foley’s. Mahan is winning/contending. Rose won a Major. Foley works for them.

    Lets face, the media outlets covering Golf are trying to blame someone for losing their meal ticket and are trying to wring out what they can out of Tiger’s waning career, as is Tiger. Tiger is where he is b/c he tried to turn Golf into a sport, one of muscle and power. His physical issues are self inflicted, and not Foley’s fault

  14. Milton

    Mar 24, 2015 at 11:27 am

    Instructors that teach fundamentals are good, the average PGA pro will only help you. Michael Breed type is good…
    But guys that try to reinvent the wheel and make a name for themselves are bad.
    Sean Foley tries his absolute hardest to sound smart by overcomplicating things so the average person can’t understand. I can’t stand that man.

  15. Chris C

    Mar 24, 2015 at 9:25 am

    The perceived media war on instructors is essentially an exercise in preaching to the choir. Technological advances have given birth to an industry filled with instructors whose eyes never leave their computer screens. The best lessons I have ever received involved an instructor simply grabbing my club and dragging it into position. The worst lessons always involve a review of my swing on the bloody computer. I know I cross the line at the top; I know I come over the top with a swing that comes from right field and exists somewhere over the third base bullpen, but it all feels so good and so right. I do not need someone telling me that my swing needs improvement. I need an old school instructor who is willing to grab the club in the back swing and say “stop” , this is perfect, now start your damn down swing. I do not need nor do i wish to pay someone to film a succession of bad swings. I am the choir to whom the talking preach.

  16. Kevin Taglione

    Mar 24, 2015 at 8:39 am

    I hate it when the media bags on Tiger for changing instructors; did you have teachers in school and different coaches in sports. To the first different teachers in school, Tiger is and always has been a student of the game. He has always had the drive to learn alot about the game. So for him, I think just moving along in school and learning more about the game. To the second different coaches in sports. Tiger is athlete just like Lebron James or Richard Sherman. When Lebron moved to Miami didn’t it take sometime for him to become a champion; there is learning curve. I think the same can be applied for Tiger.

    My next point, I don’t think the current golf media has clue how modern teaching is done. Yes some guys have swing changes and completely rebuild their swings. Though I believe most of modern teaching is more coaching. I think players are now seeing teachers to tune there game; for the mental, physical, how they practice, and how they play.

    Finally the golf media is most hypocritical people in journalism. One moment they will bash Tiger for seeing Sean Foley and talking technical trackman numbers and then the next praise Paul Casey for putting up a multiple scores in the 90s on a Trackman Combine (the highest score ever is 93).

  17. christian

    Mar 24, 2015 at 3:17 am

    A NASCAR mechanic would fix the broken engine part and that’s it. Ten different NASCAR mechanics would NOT fix a broken part in ten different ways like ten 10 diffeent golf instructors probably would teach you 10 different swings. Terrible analogy. Since there is no such thing as a standard golf swing to teach all these different coaches put forward their own preferences and that of course opens them up to exactly this type of criticism.

  18. marcel

    Mar 24, 2015 at 12:31 am

    coaching is very important in golf and if not the most important; 2nd is conditioning and fitness… id quit golf if i was forced to listen to Chamblebee! i had great coaching in my lifetime and the only thing not being able to play good week-in week-out… its the strength and conditioning – strong lower back etc. to be a golfer you have to treat it as an athlete. Tiger is getting old and therefore his body does not recover.

  19. Midwestern Golfer

    Mar 24, 2015 at 12:13 am

    The Golf Channel is ruining the enjoyment of watching golf on TV. Brandel is a great example of someone who finds satisfaction in taking someone down. I’m tired of of it and I vote with the mute button when he appears.

  20. Ernie Happala

    Mar 23, 2015 at 11:03 pm

    Former PGA Professional and I can say without a doubt in my opinion, the two worst people I have ever heard talk about the golf swing are Johnny Miller and Brandel Chamblee. Great and good player, but horrible eyes that don’t translate the golf swing to the English language well. The best part of the Golf Channel they have gotten away from, when they use to have all the different instructors on Golf Lesson Live.

  21. farmer

    Mar 23, 2015 at 10:54 pm

    Instruction, as such, is not the problem with either Tiger or O’Hair.

  22. SBoss

    Mar 23, 2015 at 10:33 pm

    I’ve got no issue with instructors at the PGA Tour type level. These guys got there because they are the best of their field. It’s like any other profession. There are great one’s, average, and below average people working in the field.
    My issue is that this ask “your PGA professional” is nonsense. They aren’t all nearly equal and most amateur instruction isn’t very good. Golf is hard. But, every instructor does it completely different. In general, the golf industry STINKS. The manufacturers are corrupt, their are no industry standards on club length, shaft, lofts, etc. They crank out 46″ driver shafts knowing full well that the average amateur has no business hitting a club that long. The shaft stiffness issues are beyond brutal. One stiff is another’s company’s senior flex. When you look at the lack of process in the golf industry, its no wonder the sport is shrinking.

  23. Mike

    Mar 23, 2015 at 10:23 pm

    Sean Foley had Tiger hanging on his left side on the backswing. From that position you’d come down too steep so to avoid that Tiger would have to slide his hips to the left, we’ll outside of neutral joint alignment. That puts a lot of stress on his hip. But then the killer move was that Foley wanted Tiger’s spine rotated left way more than he ever has in his career. Plus Foley was big on using the ground for leverage. Haney tried to minimize how much down Tiger went on the downswing. Foley encouraged it. But in Tigers old swing he’d come into the ball with his shoulders more closed and release his hands and arms. But under Foley he was way more rotated to the left with a ton of hip slide to avoid being too steep and a lot of downward spine compression. If there is two things your back hates, it’s rotation and compression. Sean Foley is a claims to be a biomechanics expert, but he’s really not. He may have ended the career of the greatest player to ever live.

  24. sgniwder99

    Mar 23, 2015 at 7:21 pm

    “The media” = 2 guys

    • Mnmlist Golfr

      Mar 23, 2015 at 9:03 pm

      Exactly. It’s a real stretch to call former touring pros “media.” As analysts and commentators, it’s their job to have opinions. Actual members of the media, i.e. reporters such as Rosaforte, have no opinion on instructors.

  25. Dennis Clark

    Mar 23, 2015 at 6:33 pm

    When you’re getting paid big bucks to talk into a microphone, ya gotta say something…Henry Longhurst is turning in his grave.

  26. cody

    Mar 23, 2015 at 6:20 pm

    Wayne anyone who has watched your youtube channel knows that you dislike the announcers. So it is no surprise that you disagree with them. You should just come out and say it though. On another note, I Like your videos, they are great.

  27. TT X

    Mar 23, 2015 at 6:19 pm

    Well written.
    I do find it amazing that Hank Haney has the Blue Print that can change your game within minutes for a minimum fee. Crazy for him to spend all that time with a number of players Romano, Barkley, Phelps and a few others and not give them the info….
    I really do like and agree with your article Wayne.
    The irony on the Haney project not helping over a long period of time and the Haney Blue Print helping instantly is hilarious.

  28. cody

    Mar 23, 2015 at 6:18 pm

    i think coaching is needed but not overhauling.

  29. RJ

    Mar 23, 2015 at 6:04 pm

    Phenomenally written piece…. To those that blame too much technology on the non improvement of players at all levels. I hope your not reading this on a computer, cell phone or tablet.
    I am sick of the bashing of improvement attempts to climb higher in tour status, winning a club championship or just breaking 100. Talking head have to talk about something just like sitting in the “ole barber shop”. Without their input the would be jobless much to the chagrin of their wallets.
    As an instructor I have embraced technology but my students only get what I give them. My over thinkers/ engineers/ need to know all students get minimal information. If i dont bring it up…. I tell them not to think about! But if they come to me then they get instruction.

  30. juststeve

    Mar 23, 2015 at 5:46 pm

    Wayne characterizes golf as a complex game, even unusually complex. I would way it is no more complex now than it was when Vardon and Jones and Hogan and Nicklaus learned to play it superbly. It has only been made to seem more complex by modern teachers. Much the shame.

    Steve

    • RJ

      Mar 23, 2015 at 6:09 pm

      But what about those that were shooting 90’s and higher in the Jones, Hogan, Sneed, Palmer, Nicklaus, Watson, Stewart, Woods era. If you ask them if it was complex, what would their answer be? My guess would be yes!

      • juststeve

        Mar 24, 2015 at 11:06 am

        People who shoot in the 90’s or higher are bound to think golf is complex, just like you though arithmetic was complex before you learned to do it. What the 90 shooter needs to learn is how to apply the club head squarely to the ball more often, not D-Plane.

        Steve

    • Chuck

      Mar 24, 2015 at 12:09 am

      juststeve; You said it!

      I don’t think that Brandel Chamblee, Johnny Miller or any of the other critical observers of tour golf are criticizing golf instruction, per se. They are criticizing something that is rather new in golf — the omnipresent all-purpose swing guru. And you’re darned right that Nicklaus, Hogan, Trevino, Watson, Palmer, Casper, Player and Ballesteros never seemed to need a full-time swing guru.

      Jack Nicklaus got together with Jack Grout a couple times a year. Tom Watson worked with Byron Nelson very closely as a young player and then moved on.

      But this modern invention of a practically full-time Swing Coach (capital “S”, capital “C”) is weird, it has become so pervasive. Players are now seen as being somehow lazy or inattentive if they don’t have an entire staff of trainers, coaches and psychoanalysts putting them through their paces. Golf swing coaches are becoming like baseball managers, moving from team to team. Every team has to have one, and the championship winners are in demand.

  31. John

    Mar 23, 2015 at 5:42 pm

    Once a guy can play, it really comes down to who has the better short game from 100 yds in. The question is how much instruction is too much for that guy to just play. Butch Harmon said there are roofers and house builders. Butch said he is a roofer who makes very slight changes (repairs the roof) while the builders tear down the whole house – that is where the probelm lies. I think there has to be a balance between the technical and just playing the shots. The computerization of the game both in lessons and equipment is interesting but maybe gone too far. I liked it better when my driver was simply 10.5, stiff, 44.5 inches – now I am bombarded with flex point, torque, ball speed, swing speed and adjustable wights and lie angle – too much to think about and I don’t hit it any better with an adjustable driver.

  32. Lazy

    Mar 23, 2015 at 3:45 pm

    I think most of the golf talking heads are just lazy or too unintelligent to make the effort to learn new things. They are comfortable just repeating the same old stuff, even things that have been proven to be incorrect. Really, it’s their job to explore and learn all that is available in golf, and to golf, and relay that to the viewing public. The fact that they don’t just shows they are lazy and comfortable with the status quo. Lets petition for some new personalities that aren’t afraid to learn new things and disseminate that information.

  33. Mlecuni

    Mar 23, 2015 at 3:15 pm

    There is a big difference between how the subject of golf is treated on tv around the globe. In my country it’s more about golf itself and the history of golf rather than every aspects of the modern off the course life blabla thing that some commentators like to talk about. It’s quite frustating to see two swings ( without routine !) then have 10 minutes of nosense talking and then a commercial break.

    I would love, and i’m sure it will be available one day have the possibility to cut the tv comments and listen to the on course dialogues between players and caddies…. For 5 hours ! And to follow any team i want !

  34. Mike

    Mar 23, 2015 at 3:08 pm

    In every other sport players have a coach, not a mechanics guru. Coaches know how to get your best out of you. They don’t try to completely change you mechanics. A friend of mine was talking to a Hall of Fame pitcher about Tiger Woods and his swing changes and asked him if he’d ever tried to change his delivery. What do you think his answer was? He thought that was crazy. When Butch Harmon is with a player, I guarantee you it’s 95% coaching. That’s why Tiger left him. Tiger wanted more swing mechanics than Butch was willing to give him. Sean Foley absolutely ruined Tigers back and his game. No doubt about it.

    • Carlos Danger

      Mar 23, 2015 at 3:31 pm

      Did your “friend” who talked to a HOF pitcher (always a great way to start a sentence) ask that said pitcher if he plays golf and if so if he has an instructor work on his mechanics?

      Im assuming you spoke to Tiger and he gave you that 95% statistic and also confirmed that was his leaving for leaving Butch? I assume this because you “guaranteed” us.

      I will also assume you are an Orthopedic Dr. and you ran extensive tests on Tigers back since you know that Foley “absolutely” ruined Tigers back?

    • Reality

      Mar 23, 2015 at 5:05 pm

      Explain how Tiger could have so many injuries with his legs and yet you say it was Foley who ruined his back.

      Those leg injuries absolutely contributed to his back problems. In fact, his back probably started at Day 1, when he first realized he had a deficiency in his kinetic chain, and his body had to adjust.

      As someone who has been through leg and now the corresponding back pain because of the lack of strength and mobility those leg injuries cause, I have a pretty good understanding that you’re completely off base.

      But I guess when it comes to Tiger…reality really doesn’t need apply. Just as bad as the talking heads on TV.

  35. David

    Mar 23, 2015 at 3:02 pm

    The #2 player in the world doesn’t receive instruction and never has (though he is obviously a rare case). I 100% agree with the idea that today’s instruction is sacrificing “feel” and natural swing tendencies for statists and technology driven instruction. I don’t blame Foley for Tiger’s downfall, I blame Tiger for buying into “over-thinking” his swing and not just getting out and putting in the practice time to get HIS game back. Golf instructors are valuable tools, it’s incumbent upon the golfer to pick the right instructor to help them achieve their goals.

    • Carlos Danger

      Mar 23, 2015 at 4:02 pm

      It goes both ways. I use Baseball and Hockey as an example because those are the two sports I know.

      Ovechkin and Kershaw probably receive very little “mechanics” instruction because they are freaks of nature. Kershaw can make a baseball move like a whiffle ball without even thinking about it. Ovechkin can ice skate at full speed backers and then lean forward and hit a moving puck 95 mph into a 2 sq. inch target. Bubba can hit a 330 yd drive that draw 75 yards over tress and lands with back spin.
      These are things that an instructor CANNOT teach you. They are just freakish natural coordination abilities that very few human beings possess.

      Then there are the MLB pitchers that have never been able to throw the ball over 90mph, the hockey players that are slow and/or can not shoot hard, and golfers who can barely hit their driver 290 yds. These guys rely on mechanics and instruction. If they relied on “feel” they would never make it (whatever IT is).

      So to compare Bubba (I know thats not what your doing) to some of these guys who have instructors and are not performing and say its because of the instructor I think is not a fair assessment. However…have any of you watched Bubba on the course and not thought to yourself that guy could sure use a coach?

      • patricknorm

        Mar 23, 2015 at 6:46 pm

        I won’t question your baseball knowledge but I will challenge your poor understanding of hockey. My son played against Ovechkin from about 16 until about 25 years of age. Alex grew up with Dynamo Moscow which is a very intensive hockey and soccer program in Russia. I can assure you that all Russians received extensive technical training for hockey. I’ve met Alex a few times and he is a very strong man who practices his shot all the time. He is not the greatest skater but his style is very effective. Its wrong to suggest that elite athletes don’t receive technical training.

        • Carlos Danger

          Mar 25, 2015 at 1:39 pm

          Actually played college hockey…but I attempted to dumb it down because few people care or know much about hockey. And thank you for letting me know what country Alex grew up in, how strong he is, and that you met him one time. That cleared everything up for me.

          Ofcourse there is tons of instruction and mechanics taught to hockey players. Bigger point was that some players have freakish abilities and instincts that simply cant be taught. Lidstrom and Gretzky got plenty of instruction throughout their careers but no coach/instructor taught them to see the ice the way they did…that was just a natural ability they had which is what made the better than everyone else. You go on to say Ovechkin practices his shot all the time…duh. All athletes “practice.” The question here is about the level of instruction on the mechanics within the practice. My point was that a guy like Bubba and/or Ovechkin have natural abilities and are able to do things in their sport without having to be instructed to do so…while some other players/golfers do rely on that technical instruction.

    • Truth

      Mar 24, 2015 at 4:57 am

      apparently you havent heard many bubba at georgia stories…lets just say he had a little patrick reed in him then, eg. hes the best and no one could tell him what to do, from what i understand he was a bit of a handful

      • Captain Oblivious

        Mar 24, 2015 at 8:35 am

        Apparently, he didn’t need to be told what to do. I would bet that Bubba feels that he made the right choice by not listening to anyone else, especially when he looks in his closet at those two green jackets.

  36. TR1PTIK

    Mar 23, 2015 at 2:52 pm

    I’d agree with the others who have mentioned the over-use of technology in golf instruction. However, it doesn’t seem like the guys on TV are making that distinction.
    There is a lot to be gained from golf instruction at any level and it doesn’t matter how long you’ve played or what your handicap is. ALMOST everyone can benefit from golf instruction with a certified pro – the rare cases being guys like Bubba Watson. Truthfully though, the right instruction could probably help Bubba with certain aspects of his game, but we’re just going to assume that his swing is far too unique for any instructor to be able to assist him. If nothing else, instructors are great source of information when trying to develop a better understanding of ball flight laws, swing mechanics, and so forth. I’ve had many discussions with my instructor that never involved a ball or club, but were just as useful if not more so.

  37. it's all about the ad dollars

    Mar 23, 2015 at 2:39 pm

    The golf media knows who feeds them and they cherry pick examples in the professional ranks to push their agenda (like stated above). Taken further; If you are taught to hit the ball better then you realize there is no need for new equipment unless it’s worn out or broken. My point for those who don’t get it and need it simplified; golf media doesn’t exist without advertising dollars. A large portion of that comes from equipment manufacturers. The more they can convince you that your problems are equipment based and not the way you move your body the better chance they have of making more sales. Golf media has a HUGE incentive for people to NOT improve because then they would loose advertising dollars.

  38. GGPRO

    Mar 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm

    The media in not harping on all instructors, just those that have re-invented the wheel via an over emphasis on technology. People make fun of Butch Harmon, he is a “dinosaur” and outdated because he uses his eyes and experience, not a Track Man to teach his players. His players produce under the most pressure packed circumstances because his information is sound, not some new flavor of the month. Butch uses video and Track Man at his facilities, but doesn’t rely on them to make an accurate diagnosis.
    I would hardly cl;assify Johnny Miller and Lanny Wadkins as players that have lost their status, they are Hall of Famer’s and even a player like Brandel had a good career playing. In addition, they have first hand knowledge of the pressures of tour golf and are highly qualified to make such judgments.

  39. Robert

    Mar 23, 2015 at 2:16 pm

    There is a huge difference between complaining about every coach and complaining about the coaches who use too much technology. I agree with the latter part. It seems like the last few years the technology has gotten amazing with golf and has taught us a lot of things about the why’s certain things happen with the golf club and, in turn, the golf ball.

    The problem is that a lot of coaches seem to be coming up with theories of how the golf swing should be in order to make all of the math numbers perfect when looking at the new technology. This is a problem. It’s a problem because the human body isn’t perfect and in order to get some of these perfect math swings, players are having to do things that they normally do not do or can’t do and it can cause a whole lot of problems.

    I think this is where a lot of the commentators are coming from. I totally understand that. There has to be a combination of the two. You can’t just try and build the perfect tech swing because humans are imperfect in their swings.

    • Rob

      Mar 29, 2015 at 12:40 am

      I agree, the technology creates a micro focus on how, not the result! It is the ultimate extension of don’t just show the answer, you must show how your work. Great for a math class, meaningless in sports. It allows doubt into a golfers mind, and that reduces the chance of success to luck.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 8
  • LEGIT2
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB1
  • SHANK2

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

Published

on

As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
Your Reaction?
  • 2
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

Published

on

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

Your Reaction?
  • 30
  • LEGIT10
  • WOW4
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP3
  • OB1
  • SHANK6

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending