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Wishon: “What shaft flex should I use?”

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Let’s start our discussion by making one thing clear. There’s a lot to fitting the flex and bend profile of shafts — enough to write a whole book.

In asking me to write about the fitting of each of the key specs of golf clubs, GolfWRX in essence gives me a “1-pound bag” each week to offer information about each fitting spec. Covering everything about shaft flex and bend profile would be like trying to put 100 pounds of stuff into that 1-pound bag!

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For those who are really into knowing as much as possible about flex and bend profile fitting in shafts, I recommend you read the three-part series I wrote for GolfWRX some time ago.

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For those who may not be that familiar with fitting for FLEX and for BEND PROFILE, fitting for the flex is a matter of finding a shaft with the correct swing speed rating for the golfer’s clubhead speed AND transition/tempo, while fitting the bend profile involves matching the tip stiffness design of the shaft to the golfer’s point of release.

Of all the points that an experienced club fitter has to evaluate to do a good job in the fitting of flex and bend profile, the most important one is to have accurate shaft bend profile measurement and swing speed rating data on the largest possible population of shaft models and flexes. This is because there are no standards for the flex of a shaft in the golf industry. Each golf company and shaft company is free to decide how stiff any of their letter flex codes on their shafts are to be. As such, the R flex from one company can be of the same stiffness as the S flex from another company or the A flex from a third.

Without access to a large data base of actual stiffness and swing speed rating measurements for shafts to be able to clearly know and compare the stiffness design of shafts, fitting for flex and bend profile is a matter of time consuming and frustrating trial and error. Period.

The following bend profile data graph is simply offered as an example of the type of shaft stiffness measurement data required to take shaft flex/bend profile fitting from a trial-and-error process to one of clear, succinct organization. This example graph will also prove the point about the confusion in flex due to a lack of standards in the industry.

Each of the five shafts in this graph are labeled and sold as S-flex shafts. The stiffness measurements represent a range of three full flexes, or stated another way, represent a swing speed rating difference of more than 30 mph.

Screen Shot 2015-03-10 at 10.01.53 AM

With such data, the flex and bend profile fitting analysis follows these procedures:

1. Accurately measure the average clubhead speed of the golfer with a driver and a 5- or 6-iron.

2. Observe the golfer’s downswing transition and tempo and evaluate it as either:

A) Smooth/gradual/passive with little sense of acceleration.

B) Average, with some sense of force and acceleration from the transition through the downswing.

C) Forceful and aggressive, as if the golfer cannot wait to pour on the coals to accelerate the club to impact.

In simple terms, the club fitter is observing whether the golfer is more of a swinger (A), a definite hitter (C) or somewhere in between (B) with his downswing transition and tempo.

3. Observe the golfer’s point of release (i.e. the point at which the golfer begins to unhinge the wrist-cock angle on the downswing as either (1) early, (2) midway, (3) later, or (4) very late. Another way to evaluate this is to reference the point of starting the release to the hour numbers on a clock while facing the golfer.  

  • (1) Early: 11 to 9:30
  • (2) Midway: 9:30 to 8:30
  • (3 Later: 8:30 to 7:30
  • (4) Very Late: 7:30 to 6:30

4. Choose shafts of the correct weight (see my story on shaft weight/total weight), which have a swing speed rating that matches to the golfer’s clubhead speed and an adjustment for their transition and tempo evaluation with a tip stiffness design that matches the golfer’s point of release.

We will use an example of a golfer with a 100 mph driver clubhead speed. The up or down adjustment in the swing speed rating and tip stiffness recommendation is the same for all other clubhead speeds.

Screen Shot 2015-03-10 at 10.00.30 AM

The above procedures are done to give the club fitter A STARTING POINT for shaft flex and bend profile fitting. Suitable candidate shafts are chosen by the club fitter from which the test club hitting process begins.

Again, because the best club fitters are superb multi-taskers during the test club sessions for flex and bend profile, the club fitter is also testing for shaft weight, swing weight and continually asking the golfer for feedback with each change of head weight or shaft.

Without question, the matter of ADVANCED PLAYER SHAFT FLEX/BEND PROFILE FITTING must also include an evaluation of the golfer’s preference for feel elements and shot shape/performance related to the flex/bend profile. Experienced club fitters will ask the golfer to provide the names of shafts the golfer has used, along with the golfer’s feedback of too high, too low, good flight, too stiff feeling, too flexible feeling, just right feeling, etc.

With this information, the club fitter will access his database of shaft stiffness measurements to study as many of the golfer’s previous shafts and compare the stiffness measurements. Through this process, the club fitter will be able to know what the actual stiffness measurements are for each shaft model feedback opinion from the golfer. From this the club fitter will have a very clear picture of what the stiffness measurements need to be to best satisfy the golfer’s feel and shot shape preferences.

Again, with the right database of shaft stiffness measurements, the process of flex and bend profile fitting becomes a very organized, very orderly, and very accurate process. Without such information, shaft flex and bend profile fitting will forever be a matter of trial and error.

Related

Tom Wishon

  1. What length should your clubs be?
  2. What lofts should your clubs be?
  3. Face angle is crucial for a proper fitting
  4. The best way to fit lie angle
  5. How to choose the right club head design
  6. Tom Wishon’s keys to set makeup
  7. Getting the right size grip, time after time
  8. What shaft weight should you play?
  9. What swing weight should your clubs be?
  10. What shaft flex should I use?

This story is part of a 10-part series from Tom Wishon on professional club fitting.

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Tom Wishon is a 40-year veteran of the golf equipment industry specializing in club head design, shaft performance analysis and club fitting research and development. He has been responsible for more than 50 different club head design firsts in his design career, including the first adjustable hosel device, as well as the first 0.830 COR fairway woods, hybrids and irons. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: February 2014 Tom served as a member of the Golf Digest Technical Advisory Panel, and has written several books on golf equipment including "The Search for the Perfect Golf Club" and "The Search for the Perfect Driver," which were selected as back-to-back winners of the 2006 and 2007 Golf Book of the Year by the International Network of Golf (ING), the largest organization of golf industry media professionals in the USA. He continues to teach and share his wealth of knowledge in custom club fitting through his latest book, "Common Sense Clubfitting: The Wishon Method," written for golf professionals and club makers to learn the latest techniques in accurate custom club fitting. Tom currently heads his own company, Tom Wishon Golf Technology, which specializes in the design of original, high-end custom golf equipment designs and club fitting research for independent custom club makers worldwide Click here to visit his site, wishongolf.com

25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. today tv schedule

    Oct 7, 2023 at 5:53 pm

    I would recommend using a stiffer shaft flex for a higher launch.

  2. Jim M.

    Mar 24, 2015 at 10:56 am

    Hello Tom,
    I’m curious if you have any thoughts or opinions on the accuracy/validity of the Golfworks “MPF Shaft Ratings”? Up to this point it’s the only shaft rating guide that I’ve used, and have found it to be better than going about shaft purchases blind, but not something I’d use and bet the house on.
    Since I’m just up in Boulder, maybe we can discuss the fascinating World of Shafts in person someday. Thanks for your articles, really enjoy hearing your perspective!

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 24, 2015 at 4:53 pm

      Jim M
      Sorry, but I don’t think very much of the Golfworks MPF shaft ratings. If you take a look at the clubhead speed ranges that they advise, you will see that every R flex is rated for the same 77-92mph driver speed, every S for the same 93-107 swing speed and so on. In doing this they are showing they are not aware of the fact that there is no standard for letter flex as I showed in that bend profile graph in the article. Also, having a 14-15mph swing speed range within the same flex is too large. While there are some areas for which I hold high regard for Golfworks, this is not one of them and the information is not very good for helping golfers find the best shaft for their swing characteristics. That graph you see in the article comes from my Bend Profile software program in which we now have something like 3,000 different shafts in the data base. Many of the clubmakers use this as their guide for empirically comparing the full length stiffness design of shafts so they know much more precisely how one shaft compares to the other. We certainly do not have all the shafts in the data base because this is a monumental task to try to get samples of as many shafts as we can. We certainly cannot buy them all. So we ask the shaft makers to submit samples of their shafts for us to measure and put into the data base. And as happens, some of the shaft makers choose not to participate for whatever reasons. But as it stands now, this software program is the most extensive data base of shaft relative stiffness measurements for clubmakers or golfers to have to be able to make better empirical comparisons.

      • Jim M.

        Mar 25, 2015 at 11:39 am

        Thanks for the reply Tom. I was under the impression Golfworks had a bit more sophisticated analysis at play, but as you point out, my impression was false.
        I’ve had a couple “clunker” purchases recently, and things are making a lot more sense why now!

  3. Devon

    Mar 18, 2015 at 10:54 pm

    Hi Tom:

    Thanks again so much for posting. Incredibly valuable knowledge. It seems from reading your posts, I have been misunderstanding the role of shaft flex (and it seems I would not be alone!). I have always thought the main consideration in choosing a shaft is the trade-off between distance and accuracy. Want more distance, get a flexible shaft that will bend more and load the club head more like a sling shot catapult. Want more accuracy, get a stiffer shaft that won’t bend and twist as much, and thus provide a more consistently square face at impact. If you have a fast club head speed like I do (115+ for driver), but a miss will put you three fairways over, get the stiffest shaft you can find. When I read your posts, however, I don’t see any mention of stiffness impacting accuracy (hitting it straight). I see mention of stiffness affecting two main areas: 1) trajectory, spin rate, and launch angle (for harder swinging, late releasing folks, which I think I would also be); and 2) an individual preference for the feel of the club either loading or not loading.

    Have I been wrong all these years in thinking the main consideration in choosing stiffness is the trade-off of distance and accuracy?

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 20, 2015 at 3:47 pm

      Devon:
      Thanks for asking your question so I could have the chance to answer because this is a very good question since it has been said over the years that stiffer means more accurate and flexible means more distance. This concept has its roots from way back, long before serious research was done to find out precisely what the stiffness design of a shaft really does for golfers with different swing characteristics.

      It fooled Karsten because those who remember Ping clubs from the 70s and 80s recall that he always used one very stiff flex in all the clubs Ping made back then, from this belief that going very stiff was better because it offered better accuracy. But once he and his engineers discovered the real performance contribution of flex and bend profile, Ping did move away from this original very stiff philosophy to make their clubs with different flexes to better match to the clubhead speeds of golfers.

      Where this stiffer is more accurate and flexible is more distance belief came about was from way back when really good players would use different flex shafts – not from regular golfer testing with different stiffnesses. When a high clubhead speed player with a later release uses a MUCH more flexible shaft, the forward bending of the shaft coming into impact not only increases the dynamic loft to result in a higher launch/more spin/higher flight, but a greater amount of forward bending also causes the face to close a little bit too. So these higher speed, late release players would see that they had a tendency to draw or even hook the ball a little more when using a much more flexible shaft. Changing to a stiffer shaft reduced the amount of forward bend on the shaft at impact, which in turn lowered launch/spin/trajectory AND reduced the tendency of the forward bend to close the face. So from this came the belief that stiffer was more accurate.

      Not so with avg to regular players because without a higher speed AND later release, the shaft cannot come to impact in a forward bend position to bring about any real change in launch/spin/trajectory or any change in the face angle position.

      The concept that more flexible meant more distance came from the fact that when a higher speed, later release player used a more flexible shaft, often times the higher launch resulted in more carry distance, particularly if the player was using too little loft on the driver for his speed and his angle of attack. But here again, this does not work for early to midway release players because the shaft can’t be in a forward bend position at impact with an early to early-midway release and only gets to that point as the release gets a little later and later in the downswing.

      So to a small extent, going stiffer can have a small effect on accuracy, but typically only if the player were using a shaft that was too flexible for his speed and downswing force/tempo. Thing is, it is NEVER a good thing to play with a shaft that is stiffer than what your speed and downswing force dictates because that has the effect of making impact feel more dead/boardy and also can affect the golfer’s swing timing, tempo, and release in an adverse manner.

      Final point – ACCURACY is far, far more a product of getting the right fit for your length, the shaft weight, the headweight, the face angle. The shaft flex is a distant and only slight contributor to that.

  4. James

    Mar 18, 2015 at 12:40 am

    you could write a book…and that book would be called “Bullsh*t”…..unless you are a low single digit handicap player it doesn’t amount to a hill of beans what kind of shaft you are using. whether its a stiff or extra stiff or you pay $1000.00 for some after market shaft or use a made for shaft or some proprietary shaft. your swing just isn’t going to be consistent enough to see and difference. and they guys whos swings are consistant enough? its really just fine tuning…and I mean FINE tuning…

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 18, 2015 at 10:41 am

      JAMES
      I have said many times in my books and articles that golfers have to have a higher clubhead speed and mainly a later release before differences in the shafts’ stiffness design will begin to show an effect on changing the launch angle, trajectory and spin of the shot. So if you assume that only low single digit handicappers have a higher speed with late release, then you’re right – at least from a launch angle, trajectory and spin standpoint of performance related to different shaft stiffness designs.

      On the other hand, the stiffness design also can have a very big effect on swing tempo/timing/rhythm and on solidness of impact feel. And these elements of indirect performance from the shaft’s stiffness design can most definitely be perceived by high single digit, middle digit and even some higher handicappers depending on how much golf they have played.

      Pretty much most golfers who have played a lot can notice when a shot feels dead or lively when the ball leaves the face. When a shaft is too stiff for a golfer, the feeling of impact in the center of the face becomes more “dead” or “boardy”. And while that won’t affect actual ball speeds or shot characteristics, it most certainly can affect the golfer’s sense of feel to the point that he begins making worse swings and becomes more inconsistent as he fights with this sense of dead impact feel from the shaft being too stiff. This most certainly is an element related to stiffness design that more than just low single digit players can perceive.

      Yes, no question, and as I have said before, for the golfers with avg to slower speeds who also have an early to early-midway release, the elements of length, loft, lie, face angle, shaft weight, total weight, swingweight, head design, set makeup and grip size will for sure contribute much more to game improvement than will the stiffness design of the shaft. But even so, this matter of getting the right flex for avg golfers so their sense of timing/rhythm is a little better, and very much so the feeling of impact is more solid are important elements related to the stiffness design that have to be observed for these less skilled players.

      • Justin

        Apr 8, 2015 at 12:37 am

        Hi Tom,

        I’ve been into clubfitting for a few years now, and am a firm believer in the Common Sense Clubfitting system you developed. My question about this thread, with the importance of flex for less-skilled players, is: how would it matter?

        What I mean is, when an early unhinging of the wrist angle happens, doesn’t all of that flex go out the window (so to speak)? Am I correct in believing the shaft flexes and returns to straight well before the clubhead gets to the ball? If so, would the flex really have that much of an effect on “feel”?

        Thanks for all you do,
        Justin

  5. Dennis

    Mar 15, 2015 at 9:28 am

    Seems hard to believe you can discuss shaft flex without mentioning splining and whether the shafts were spline for maximum or minimum flex.

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 15, 2015 at 6:12 pm

      Dennis
      Like I said in the opening paragraph, one could easily write a book about all the elements related to shafts, shaft flex, bend profile and the fitting thereof. Shaft spine alignment can be important to SOME players depending on their swing characteristics, but by no means is it a critical element for ALL golfers. With the limited space I have for each piece, I have to award a priority to covering information that will be pertinent to the largest segment of golfers and spine alignment/orientation does not fit that priority. FYI so I don’t leave this too much in the dark, I’ll leave you with two basics about it – 1) far fewer shafts today exhibit asymmetry properties for which a spine/asymmetry check and realignment is necessary, 2) shaft spine alignment/orientation becomes more important as the clubhead speed gets higher, as the downswing move becomes more aggressive and as the release becomes later and later in the downswing.

  6. Charles

    Mar 13, 2015 at 2:19 pm

    I’ve read a lot of articles from club fitters about shaft flex and there are folks saying “You should play the softest shaft you can control”, while other guys say “You should play the stiffest shaft you can get the ball airborne”. I really would like to know your opinion about that. Let’s say that when you are fitting someone you see by the numbers that there are two shafts that match the player’s swing, but one is stiffer than the other, what would be your recommendation? Thanks

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 13, 2015 at 8:06 pm

      CHARLES
      Depends on the golfer’s swing characteristics. The higher the clubhead speed, the more forceful the transition and tempo and the later the release, the more it would be better to err on the side of being a little bit too stiff than too flexible. But the lower the speed, the more passive the downswing force and the earlier the release, the better it would be to err on the side of being a little too flexible than too stiff.

      Reason is that higher speed, more forceful transition/tempo and later release are all swing characteristics that make the shaft bend more in the swing. So as the player has the ability to bend the shaft more in the swing, the better it would be to err on the side of being a little too stiff. However, fitting the shaft flex/bp always should involve asking the player if he has a preference for the bending feel of the shaft based on experience in the game. if so, then you really have to keep this in mind when making final decisions for the flex/bp. So if the player has preferred shafts that are stiffer than what his swing characteristics might otherwise dictate in a fitting analysis, then you have to err on the side of being a little more stiff. And vice versa too.

  7. Marty

    Mar 13, 2015 at 12:20 am

  8. RP Jacobs II

    Mar 12, 2015 at 9:22 pm

    Great article Tom!!

    Stay well my Friend 🙂

    Golfingly Yours,
    Richard

  9. Sean

    Mar 12, 2015 at 3:10 pm

    I have three different flexes in my bag: light, regular, and stiff. Works for me.

    • marty

      Mar 14, 2015 at 4:20 am

      I thought I was the only weirdo who does this. Hahahahah

  10. Chris C

    Mar 12, 2015 at 2:33 pm

    I seem to recall that Mr.Wishon has previously suggested that, for those who release the club early, shaft flex is not a significant factor in fitting. I believe that he noted that all of Ping’s early irons came with stiff flex shafts. If I have recollected correctly, Mr. Wishon might actually concur with Mr. Crossfield’s assessment. At least with regards to early releasers.

  11. gunmetal

    Mar 12, 2015 at 12:35 am

    Tom,

    Have you checked out Mark crossfield’s YouTube series on ‘shaft flex does it matter’? Really interesting on how miniscule the differences in performance are even from x to L let alone S to R.

    • David

      Mar 12, 2015 at 6:25 am

      Please don’t tell me you’d believe Mark Crossfield over Tom Wishon. Shaft flex obviously matters, Mark and his friends are all low players, try testing on mid-high handicappers and he’d see a noticeable difference.

      • Rich

        Mar 12, 2015 at 8:42 pm

        I think Mark Crossfield’s video makes sense. He has the data to back it up as well. Yes they are low markers but there are a lot of guys out there that swing at the same speed as MC (roughly 150 ball speed with a driver) so it would seem quite relevant to me.

      • Marty

        Mar 13, 2015 at 12:02 am

        Actually I believe Tom himself has stated that shaft flex matters very little with an early release swing and matters mostly on late to very late release swing. With early release swings, the club has already released and returned back to straight before impact therefore negating the flex

    • Mat

      Mar 12, 2015 at 1:49 pm

      I’m just shaking my head over that comment…

    • Tom Wishon

      Mar 13, 2015 at 7:58 pm

      Gunmetal
      There are two possible ways that the shaft can have an effect on performance. 1) as clubhead speed gets higher AND with it, as the release gets later, the shaft will show an effect on the launch angle, trajectory and spin. But the other side of this is also the fact that as clubhead speed gets slower AND with it, the release happens earlier, the shaft cannot have any real effect on LA, Traj and spin. This is because the early release causes the shaft to go into its forward bending action too soon before impact so by the time the head gets to the ball, the shaft has rebounded back to straight and thus can’t affect LA, Traj and spin. Add to this the fact that slower speed means any potential change in the LA and spin are far less evident.

      2) the other way the flex/bend profile can affect performance is when a golfer happens to have a very distinct sense of FEEL for the bending action of the shaft, when the flex/BP is dead on right in the wheelhouse of the golfer’s sense of feel, this means his timing for his release is as good as it can be, which in turn means he will reach his absolute highest clubhead speed as well as best timing and rhythm in the swing.

      But not all golfers have a definite sense of feel for the bending action of the shaft. Some do, many don’t. And this is something that while usually more in the realm of better players, it is still possible to find a less skilled but experienced player who does have a real sense of feel for the shaft. In such cases even though the less skilled player may not have the speed or release to make the shaft elicit much effect on the LA, traj and spin, if he does have a very refined sense of feel for the shaft, this means getting him into the right flex/bp helps with his swing tempo, timing and rhythm.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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