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Callaway R&D Director on the XR irons, 360 Face Cup

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Scott Manwaring, Callaway’s director of R&D for irons, hybrids and wedges, has been with the company for nearly two decades, and he’s worked in club design since the mid-2000s. He’s seen a lot in his time at the Carlsbad-based company, which under the direction of CEO Chip Brewer, is putting product front-and-center, according to the R&D specialist.

The company’s latest product to stand front and center: Callaway’s XR and XR Pro irons with Callaway’s Face Cup 360 technology.

Manwaring, who graduated from Brigham Young University with a degree in mechanical engineering, said he was incredibly proud of the new XR and XR Pro irons, which were the focus of our conversation.

Note: Topics in bold with Manwaring’s replies beneath

Callaway’s primary focus, how it influences product

The broad umbrella changed with Chip coming here. He said, “Be proud of the product that you’re creating.” Before, it was a lot more nuanced and complicated.

Chip is driven on the product front. Callaway spends more than $30 million per year in R&D, so that philosophy comes from Chip himself: Be proud of it. Drive every last detail, do it as quickly as possible.

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Callaway’s X Hot Pro fairway wood from 2013

That has to drive its way into every category. With the X Hot fairway wood, we took it all the way to the finish line. The next year, we said, “Let’s get the hybrids.” This was the first year that that mantra really hit irons. I obviously had a lot going on, and we’re trying to change a lot of products, but you can only turn a boat so fast; this is the first year we said, “Let’s really drive it home in irons.”

Developing the XR Irons

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Callaway’s XR irons sell for $799 (steel).

On the Apex iron, where your COGs are a lot higher, it’s easier to fix that one. When you get down to the $799 category, you have to think a lot harder about every nickel you spend and why you spend it to give the consumer the best value and also make a product you’re proud of. That just takes a little more time and effort.

Just to give you a perspective of what a pain in the a** this iron was to make: We did eight prototyping iterations with the suppliers alone — You know, get the part back, test it, change it. That is at least five or six more than we would normally do. That doesn’t even count internally. We did about four or five…using our own machines.

Addressing concerns about hot spots

We were aware of the complaint. From our position, a common complaint is just an opportunity to do something completely different and completely out of the box.

You have this opportunity with Chip coming on board and saying, “Do something different…do something that you’re proud of. Do something that’s harder.”

You have this great opportunity to break the problem up and really dig into every detail…and think in different ways to tackle all those items.

An overview of Cup 360 technology

Talking about the 360 cup face: By separating an iron into two pieces, you inherently increase the complexity and the cost. And when you weld two similar materials, it’s kind of counter-intuitive. But we needed to cast the face independently because we needed control of every…point on the back of the face.

We needed to control the thickness at every location to avoid changes in thickness that create hotspots.

You’re seeing a lot of companies take the easier solution and not keep the CG in the optimal spot, because they know they need to control face. And you see them taking the simple solution and not worrying about the thickness.

You’re still using the same FEA tools and all the stuff you’ve used in the past, but when you do things like this…when you’re trying to get the distance, plus maintain consistency, your material properties become way more critical. So all your analysis tools start to struggle. You pick up failure modes that are somewhat unexpected.

I think one aspect that’s kind of lost on everybody here is when we did the face cups on the fairway woods and the hybrids, you had this eggshell principle going on where it was a closed-back system…it was naturally stronger and thicker.

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Callaway’s X2 Hot and X2 Hot Hybrids (2014) brought the company’s face cup technology to hybrids, giving them the 455 carpenter steel faces used on the 2013 X Hot fairway woods.

On a cavity back iron, when you open up the back of that iron, you’re now on a way more flexible system. Dealing with your durability requirements and your strength requirements is a lot more complicated. And when you overlay the cost…you’ve got a real problem.

The face cup, it’s just as critical as the body. When you separate the face cup…it allows you to minimize your hotspots, especially when you cast it, because then you don’t have any machining marks, you’re not dealing with forging or some of the inherent problems that come there with draft analysis and some of the complexity there…and the cost.

The COR testing becomes obvious. You put that cup face on there and your COR gains across the face are just incredible. So the face cup is critical, but then you’ve got to move to the body. The second you…pull the mass away from the face…your center of gravity just climbs immediately…and then you’ve washed out all the gains. So, step two is finding a body design that when all that energy is transferred off the face, it doesn’t die.

The XR Pro

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Callaway’s XR Pro irons sell for $899 (steel).

On the Pro, we wanted to not offend PGA Tour players with the thicker top line. Getting that just right—where it still has the durability and still has the ball speed and still has the COR numbers we were interested in, and it still has the CG and can carry the load—it was a challenge.

Your thickness on that top line: As you get that face to transfer energy more efficiently to the ball and ultimately also to the body…it becomes a trampoline. And if you wanted the metal rims around the trampoline to be thinner, the person jumping on it is still transferring the same load, and if you start thinning those rims down too much, they just give out.

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The XR Pro (left) has less offset and a thinner top line than the XR irons.

So, the Pro iron is an incredible club…some better players hit the Pro farther than they do the standard [XR]. When I was looking at the COR data, I originally thought it was just the offset and they were able to swing at it more aggressively. But…we did a damn good job…it’s incredibly efficient for its face area.

A walkthrough of Callaway’s 2015 irons

With Big Bertha, it’s just “how can we help you?” We’re doing everything we can to help you enjoy the round of golf. We’re going to help you get the ball to fly far. You’re going to have a lot of hybrids in your bag.

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Callaway’s Big Bertha irons ($999)

With the XR, we intentionally designed stuff in there to help the average golfer that we knew the better player would snub their nose at. But with the XR Pro, Chip said: “You’re not allowed to skimp on the technology.”

In creating the XR Pro, we took everything we learned from the XR—because we did that first—and applied those lessons to the XR Pro in a shape that we knew wouldn’t offend, and it ended up doing really, really well.

The XR is for the center-of-the-green player. The player who isn’t going to work the ball, who just wants to check the yardage and hit it. But in order to help that player along, it requires a certain offset, a certain top line thickness, a sole width to help with turf interaction, a little more MOI. The XR is for that weekend guy that’s out there quite a bit.

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At Address: Callaway’s XR Pro (left) and Apex irons.

The XR Pro…was really going after someone who really likes his Apex irons but would like a little more control. We kind of kept the offset; we narrowed the top line back down. We brought the sole width back down…and this is a guy we see wanting to be a pin-seeker, wanting to really go after it…he’s going to be disappointed if he didn’t pull the shot off. So the MOI is a little lower, the top line is a little thinner. The Pro is for someone who I think is truly passionate about their game.

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28 Comments

28 Comments

  1. t golf

    Mar 3, 2015 at 8:30 am

    How much different are these than something like the speedblades? Those have little off set for a GI and pound the ball. Straight too.

  2. Vito

    Mar 1, 2015 at 1:19 pm

    Just ordered my XR Pro and Apex MB combo set. Now if the snow will just allow me to use them…

  3. Jeff

    Feb 24, 2015 at 5:24 pm

    Oh great, now I have to throw out my Apex Pros. The marketing on these new iron sets leaves the guys who bought last year’s sales pitch hung out to dry. Basically, last year’s 1200 dollar set is obsolete, because, you know, face cups and stuff. High CT, face cups, progressive this, channel slot that. I hope the garbage man takes my Apex Pros without charging me extra.

    • killerbgolfer

      Feb 24, 2015 at 10:16 pm

      I hope not, i just got the Apex forged! I don’t see these really threatening the forged offerings. Until there’s new forged offerings…

      • Ol deadeye

        Feb 25, 2015 at 11:29 am

        Well, keeping in mind that the USGA limits the COR of all club faces, I took my 20 yr old daughter(12 handicap) to a big box store. We compared her shots with her Ping G20 seven iron (steel R shaft) and both Taylormade RSi 1 and Callaway XR seven irons. Distance increase? About one or two yards with either club. With both steel or graphite shaft. She preferred the steel shafts. These were 85 grams and Ping steel is about 100. She preferred the impact feel and swing weight of the Taylormade. Enough there to replace her clubs? Not in our opinions.

  4. Ol deadeye

    Feb 23, 2015 at 2:04 pm

    It would seem that the players most interested in distance with irons would be the better women players. Not granny who retired and took up golf at 65. Younger women who hit an eight iron 110 yards. If the shaft is about the same length but flies the ball ten yards further that would be a game changer.

  5. Roosterredneck

    Feb 23, 2015 at 1:12 pm

    The 360 club design is not new. Macgregor did this years ago.Yes the thick top line and off set is excessive for me .. Buy a Macgregor model it should be much cheaper.

  6. Teaj

    Feb 20, 2015 at 3:37 pm

    These things get out there, stronger then your traditional lofts yes but if your looking for a little extra distance with forgiveness and less offset these might fit the bill. They go a little to far for me as I don’t really need to hit my clubs farther but the forgiveness with less offset is something to think about for players not playing as much as they used to but still don’t need offset. Go try it before you knock it, for the right person these would be a great club.

  7. Person

    Feb 20, 2015 at 11:52 am

    What throws me off about those irons is how round the topline looks from address. Also yes they look just a little too thick for my tastes.

  8. Vincent

    Feb 20, 2015 at 10:45 am

    Callaway could forget the “Big Bertha” trademark. This is a cannon built and used by the German army against Belgian and French soldiers and fortresses during the First World War. What could we think about a golf club named Kalashnikov?

    • graymulligan

      Feb 22, 2015 at 7:26 pm

      If you asked most folks at this point, especially golfers, they would equate the Big Bertha name to the clubs, and not the cannon. It might be a couple decades too late to have this conversation.

  9. gwillis7

    Feb 20, 2015 at 10:36 am

    Very interesting article. Haven’t had a ton of Callaway gear in the past, but did have the x-hot driver and that thing was a beast. Last couple years they def have made huge strides in woods

  10. Dave S

    Feb 20, 2015 at 9:15 am

    This probably isn’t the forum to post this, but looking at the top-line pics of these irons, it really struck me. I’ve always struggled with the large off-set that typically exists in a true GI iron. My natural shot shape with irons is right to left, with my miss usually being a hook. I’m not a great player by any stretch (14 hcp) and I’ve been playing the Adams CMBs for three seasons now. I’ve always been a naturally good athlete, but I really don’t play enough to get great at golf (every other weekend in the spring and summer), so I think GI irons could help. BUT, they all have that huge off-set, which with my natural in-to-out swing path, would likely exacerbate my hook. I guess these OEMs have to make a product that fits the majority of mid-high handicappers and their miss is usually left to right… I’m kind of in a weird spot.

    • Jeff

      Feb 24, 2015 at 5:19 pm

      Dave, players cavity backs. Less offset, more forgiveness.

  11. CHRIS

    Feb 20, 2015 at 8:40 am

    Looks like tennis rackets to me, both of them. I just cannot bear to look down and see a topline like that.

    • Rich

      Feb 20, 2015 at 9:11 am

      Keep playing your blades mate. I’ll take your money with a set of XR pros thanks.

      • Mike

        Feb 20, 2015 at 9:24 am

        Rich you know if you don’t use blades you’re a loser! 🙂 Which I guess I am since I just took delivery of my XR Pros.

        • Rich

          Feb 20, 2015 at 5:14 pm

          Yep, I know what you mean Mike. Happy to be a loser. Can’t wait to try the XR pro’s, they look pretty good to me. Happy for all the help I can get these days.

      • Philip

        Feb 20, 2015 at 2:29 pm

        Maybe, maybe not – if the guy doesn’t like the look than so what? By the way, I don’t like them too, but whether one plays blades or XR Pros is irrelevant to whether they’ll beat someone else in a match. I’ve played both with players using blades and players using clubs like the XP Pros and the deciding factor of their game has NOTHING to do with what type of iron they play, but whether they know their true yardages and whether they know their weaknesses and play accordingly.

        • Rich

          Feb 20, 2015 at 5:08 pm

          Easy there tiger. Just poking a bit of fun. I love blades and have several sets but don’t play them much anymore because my game is not what it used to be. All power to those that can.

  12. XR is King

    Feb 19, 2015 at 10:59 pm

    The XR irons are going to blow everybody away!!!!! Awesome!!!!

  13. Cyd

    Feb 19, 2015 at 10:30 pm

    Hit the Pro model further???? Difference in lofts maybe?

  14. Cyd

    Feb 19, 2015 at 10:29 pm

    Hit the Pro further???? Difference in lofts?

    I have a new set of irons for the masses. Guaranteed to add 15 more yards. Of course the lofts are 2* stronger than the previous model so now your 7 Iron is what used to be a 5 iron, the PW is what used to be an 8 iron, so on and so forth.

    But by golly I can hit a 8 Iron 190 or more and Hogan or Nicklaus could never do that.

    • Tom

      Feb 20, 2015 at 4:17 pm

      Pro is +1* on lofts (weaker) and shorter in length in the long irons (3-6) than the plain XR also lie angles are different between the models.

      And yes lofts are stronger than in the 60’s or 70’s but when I can get a 7i launching at over 20* why should I care? As to added length, hey 4 wedges is fine in the bag. (Really only 2 or 3 using old lofts.) So long as my misses are closer in results to solid hits.

      BTW: Jack could do that. He choose not to most of the time. I remember him being in trouble at Firestone once and hitting a VERY long 8i. But then that was with far worse equipment esp. balls than today!

  15. Steve

    Feb 19, 2015 at 7:33 pm

    Xhot line with different colors

    • LMB

      Feb 19, 2015 at 10:24 pm

      I’d say that was true for X2 Hot irons but these have legit tech updates.

  16. Tom

    Feb 19, 2015 at 7:11 pm

    Both the XR and XR Pro swing very nice. (With proper fit.) I get my XR Pro irons next week, my pro e-mailed me they got in and would be available at my lesson on Tue. I’ve been hitting the demo iron and LOVE how it feels/swings, the feed back, and how consistent yardage is between center and off center hits. Callaway was not on my radar when I went to get new irons but these just blew me away! 🙂

  17. LMB

    Feb 19, 2015 at 6:36 pm

    Sounds like they made the XR first, and then figured out how to make a better version of it when they did the XR Pro…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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