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Taking the eyes out of putting

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Before we take the eyes out of putting, let’s take a quick eye test. Look at this picture below and answer this question: Which looks longer, A or B?

Screen Shot 2015-02-06 at 8.35.18 AM

The correct answer is C!

I know you just read the question again and are screaming, “There is no C!”

That’s because like any great illusion, it’s a trick. The cards you see are EXACTLY the same. Our eyes are just lousy at seeing curves.

Which brings us to green reading in the modern game. Think about golf course architecture — specifically green construction. Courses are now built with modern capabilities, no bare hands and mules dragging soil. So what are some things that happen that upset our eyes’ ability to read greens?

No. 1 is that the architect can tilt the green away from natural drainage patterns. The old saying “it breaks toward the water” actually can be 100 percent wrong because the architect can move the dirt to make it go the other way.

When the PGA Tour was at Torrey Pines recently for the Farmers Insurance Open, I heard the announcers say too many times to count that the players need to take into account the ocean when reading the break for a putt. Lunacy! When the South Course was redone before the 2008 U.S. Open, modern equipment was brought in to move the ground around, and man determined the slopes on the greens — NOT NATURE. It would be very easy for me to build a green that broke completely away from the water, agreed?

Secondly, man-made drainage patterns allow for run off in a minimum of three directions for most greens. So you can have lots of opposite movement on greens that mess with your eyes, also going away from the natural lay of the land. So in Phoenix, putts are not necessarily biased to break toward “The Valley,” and in Palm Springs, they all don’t break toward Indio!

That is why eyesight can be so misleading. There has to be a better way to read greens that does not fool you and make you guess as to what you are seeing?

AdamScottAimPoint

That brings me to last May when I was hanging around the putting green at The Memorial Tournament. Adam Scott had just won the previous week and made lots of putts including two in a playoff. Before each putt, he held up several fingers and then lined up and hit the putt. It was the first time I had seen Aimpoint Express. I had read about it, but now it was live fire with the No. 1 player in the world at that time. Now here I was watching it up close at The Memorial. I soaked it all in as Hunter Mahan worked the green with his caddy. Then Adam arrived and worked it.

I noticed two things immediately:

  1. They made lots of putts…and they made the reads quickly in doing so.
  2. When they missed, they were burning the edge every time.

In fact, you might already be doing Aimpoint Express and not even know it! Have you ever gotten over a putt and felt like it might break more/less than you saw? That is because your feet are feeling the incline and sending your body an adjustment to calibrate to so you stand in balance. That is exactly what Express does.

StacyLewicAimPoint

This gets me to the point of needing to bring clarity to Aimpoint Express for players confused by what they are seeing and hearing on TV. Just last week, Jerry Foltz and Judy Rankin on The Golf Channel LPGA Tour telecast from Ocala had an Aimpoint Express discussion that was full of errors that left the viewer confused and badly misinformed.

So let me give you some facts about green reading with Aimpoint Express. We are going to hit these 3 points:

  1. Aimpoint Express is quick.
  2. Aimpoint Express is NOT technical.
  3. The best players are using it.

Take the last point first because all you have to do is read the list of names that use Aimpoint Express: Adam Scott, Anna Nordqvist, Stacey Lewis, Ian Poulter, Zach Johnson, Hunter Mahan and Lydia Ko, the new No. 1-ranked female golfer in the world.

Also, Aimpoint Express is not technical. When you can learn it in less than an hour and immediately make putts from all over the green, that is in no way technical. Quantum Physics or String Theory is technical. Taking apart my computer and putting it back together (and having it work again) is technical!

Here is how non-technical it is.

I had a tour player recently ask me what we do about grain and if I can adjust to play more or less break if I want to with Aimpoint Express? He had been told there is no adjustment for it because it is too technical. Well, that is another false statement and goes to how not technical it is. Aimpoint Express is accurate to 95 percent of the read, while the other 5 percent of the putt is your experience and athleticism, adjusting for things like grain and how hard to strike the ball. It’s literally as easy as that!

The last comment I hear a lot is that Aimpoint takes too long. On the contrary, it’s so fast that if every player on the Ryder Cup teams last year knew how to do it, they could play the event in two days instead of three. I can get the read and have the putt on the way a lot faster with Aimpoint Express than when I read it with my eyes after walking all over the place. My eyes are nowhere near accurate enough for me to get the read quickly!

I prefer to be 95 percent accurate as opposed to just going with my best guess and reading putts with my eyes. Remember the test above, with the curved cards, if you want to trust your eyes.

Our feet are like a pair of highly sensitive levels. They are always seeking dynamic balance to keep us safe by making minute adjustments and sending that message to our brain. So they are very effective at feeling slope because they have been doing that since we started to walk in order to keep us upright and out of harm’s way.

So after learning Aimpoint Express and teaching it to my players and watching them win tournaments, I can clearly see the future of green reading. If you do not want more precision, then keep guessing with your eyes. If you want to get your read faster and make more putts, then find a certified instructor near you and check out Aimpoint Express.

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If you are an avid Golf Channel viewer you are familiar with Rob Strano the Director of Instruction for the Strano Golf Academy at Kelly Plantation Golf Club in Destin, FL. He has appeared in popular segments on Morning Drive and School of Golf and is known in studio as the “Pop Culture” coach for his fun and entertaining Golf Channel segments using things like movie scenes*, song lyrics* and familiar catch phrases to teach players. His Golf Channel Academy series "Where in the World is Rob?" showed him giving great tips from such historic landmarks as the Eiffel Tower, on a Gondola in Venice, Tuscany Winery, the Roman Colissum and several other European locations. Rob played professionally for 15 years, competing on the PGA, Nike/Buy.com/Nationwide and NGA/Hooters Tours. Shortly after embarking on a teaching career, he became a Lead Instructor with the golf schools at Pine Needles Resort in Pinehurst, NC, opening the Strano Golf Academy in 2003. A native of St. Louis, MO, Rob is a four time honorable mention U.S. Kids Golf Top 50 Youth Golf Instructor and has enjoyed great success with junior golfers, as more than 40 of his students have gone on to compete on the collegiate level at such established programs as Florida State, Florida and Southern Mississippi. During the 2017 season Coach Strano had a player win the DII National Championship and the prestigious Nicklaus Award. He has also taught a Super Bowl and Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, a two-time NCAA men’s basketball national championship coach, and several PGA Tour and LPGA Tour players. His PGA Tour players have led such statistical categories as Driving Accuracy, Total Driving and 3-Putt Avoidance, just to name a few. In 2003 Rob developed a nationwide outreach program for Deaf children teaching them how to play golf in sign language. As the Director of the United States Deaf Golf Camps, Rob travels the country conducting instruction clinics for the Deaf at various PGA and LPGA Tour events. Rob is also a Level 2 certified AimPoint Express Level 2 green reading instructor and a member of the FlightScope Advisory Board, and is the developer of the Fuzion Dyn-A-line putting training aid. * Golf Channel segments have included: Caddyshack Top Gun Final Countdown Gangnam Style The Carlton Playing Quarters Pump You Up

57 Comments

57 Comments

  1. terry

    Feb 27, 2015 at 11:28 am

    could this be part of what’s wrong with golf. its hard enough, now course architects are changing the slopes to not match the natural tendencies… dumb.

  2. Jerry

    Feb 19, 2015 at 12:51 pm

    “Feeling” the slope with your feet is only valid for about a 3 ft putt. Beyond that length the slope is rarely consistent with where the ball rests. Matter of fact, for me at least, if I can feel the slope when I stand over the ball for that 3 footer, it’s so severe that it’s real luck if ball goes in.

    • Jose

      Mar 3, 2015 at 2:09 pm

      We have found this not too be true. Your feet can tell you a lot about how the green changes over distance.

      Shawn Clement and I have crafted a putting drill in the dark. Well almost in the dark. You need enough light such as a full moon or a nearby parking lot lamp so that you can still barely see the hole and ball while being totally deprived of depth perception.

      You do the around the world drill at a pin position with slope using 5 balls at 5 feet. For ADHD kids we do semi circles and alternate the sides of the hole in order to maintain focus. Since you can not see the slope your senses will be hyper charged to be aware of what your feet and your inner balance mechanism are telling you. When you go up and over the falling it becomes very obvious. By the third time through the sequence you will make most if not all of the putts even though you can not see a thing.

      Then do the same with a 5 ball ladder drill from 10′ to 30′ feet. With the first putt you can stills how the ball reacts near the hole. On the second putt you apply that knowledge plus what your feet are telling you is the difference between ball 1 and ball 2 and the second putt ends up much closer. By the third time through the ladder there is very little difference between the outcome of the ladder drill in the dark vs the ladder drill in the light.

      However you still need your eyes. You need both senses to allow you brain to predict. This is why we teach ADHD kids to walk above the break, around the hole and stop below the hole. Then they build a picture of how the ball will roll into the hole. They walk back to the ball below the break. Then they build a picture of the ball going into the hole starting from the hole backwards from what both their feet and their eyes are telling them.

      It is like a Chef sautéing vegetables. An experienced chef uses what his or her eyes, ears, and nose are telling them what is going on in the pan. If the veggies have spent a couple of days in the crisper, they are more dehydrated and will sizzle less in the pan. At that point the chef instinctively grabs for the chicken stock sooner. His brain has predicted from the sound and experiences that the veggies are about to burn sooner than the time the recipe suggests.

      You need to build awareness of what your eyes, feet and inner balance mechanisms are telling you.

      Your brain is a marvelous prediction machine.

  3. pete kauffman

    Feb 13, 2015 at 9:24 am

    How can an amateur learn AimPoint?

  4. Rob Strano

    Feb 13, 2015 at 8:04 am

    Thanks for all the mostly favorable comments on the article. Understand that I wrote it to help explain why you “might” miss putts, why there is another way, and to correct wrong information that so called expert golf commentators are sharing during telecasts (Yesterday Feherety said everything at Pebble breaks toward the ocean, UGH….). In this limited space I do not have the luxury of a dissertation length narrative to explain everything. Just because I did not write about the HOW does not mean anything negative mentioned in the comments is valid. It means that I chose to help you by giving you facts over falsehoods and misconceptions so that you are correctly informed. If you want more about AE here is a great article about the HOW by one of the other certified instructors:

    http://www.todaysgolfer.co.uk/tips-and-tuition/tuition-features/the-art-of-green-reading/

  5. Martin

    Feb 13, 2015 at 6:25 am

    I just read an article about a process I had never heard of before and I don’t know anything more about it than I did before I read the article.

  6. Long

    Feb 13, 2015 at 6:08 am

    The idea of Aimpoint express is to quickly read the break and give us the weekend hackers a much better chance to 2putt from outside of 6 feet. I dont expect to make everything for mid range and long range putt. My number of 3 putt has significantly reduced since i took the aimpoint express class. And like some of you mentioned, you have to practice a lot to get better at feeling the slope with your feet. Adam has practiced every day to feel the slope and double check with a digital meter.

  7. Tom

    Feb 13, 2015 at 5:28 am

    If this article was in any sort of scientific journal it would come with a massive disclaimer at the bottom of it.
    Plus the question at the top of the article is ‘Which looks longer, A or B?’ not ‘which is larger, A or B?’ Therefore the answer is ‘B’ it looks larger.

  8. Tim

    Feb 13, 2015 at 4:41 am

    I have tried it. Not sure I like it. feeling the break through your feet is just as difficult as seeing it with your eyes. Its also just as open to error. if you tend to favour your weight on one side or the other won’t that make a putt that curves feel straight potentially. If I was barefoot on a green I might be able to feel all the slopes, but with spiked shoes its just as much a lottery for me as using my eyes

    • Fred

      Mar 5, 2015 at 3:12 pm

      That is exactly correct Tim ! I have got to come up with a gimmick for golf. We are so easy !

  9. Chris C

    Feb 13, 2015 at 12:05 am

    With all due respect, this article provided no useful information and is simply an add for Aimpoint. I am not saying that Aimpoint is worthless. I am saying that this article provided no information regarding the “secrets” of Aimpoint. Step right up people. Pay your quarter and step into into the tent to see the lizard girl from the Amazon… It’s fast; it’s not rocket science and some very good golfers know the secrets. At least the carnival barkers give some examples of what might be revealed inside the tent. With respect to Aimpoint, I would be satisfied if the author would have given a good explanation as to Scott’s use of a Vulcan mind meld grip to assess green breaks.

  10. Andy W

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:49 pm

    So “regular” Aimpoint goes to the curb, now “Express” claims get 95% good reads? Insane quick Expert Greenreading is guaranteed 100% of the time with a P&SI-EGOS; where if ever a bad read, it is pilot error. And free support to correct pilot error. No charts, no foot feeling, no fingers needed.

  11. Anon

    Feb 12, 2015 at 2:48 pm

    Nice sales pitch. Your article didn’t actually present any information about aim point though. You just bragged about who uses it and name dropped the whole time. Are you afraid if you shared a little knowledge that no one would come to you for lessons? This kind of thinking kept golf instruction (and other industries) in the dark ages for the longest time!

  12. Rob Strano

    Feb 12, 2015 at 10:34 am

    “When I stand over a six-footer I have a game plan,” says Adam Scott. “I know where the putt needs to go and that gives me great confidence.”

  13. Captain Oblivious

    Feb 12, 2015 at 10:15 am

    Sounds interesting. I think I will pass, though. I already make an extraordinary amount of putts. If I made any more, I’m sure I would be investigated by numerous government and golfing organizations. Senate hearings, the whole deal. Thanks, but no thanks.

  14. Steve

    Feb 12, 2015 at 8:58 am

    Adam Scott started using aim point when he was the number 1 player in the world, now he is number 5. Seems to be working, what a joke.

    • Birdeez

      Feb 12, 2015 at 10:10 am

      yet his putting stats have gotten better…. sometimes you drop in world ranking for other reasons, but that would take little more common sense and time from your part which you seem incapable of

      • Steve

        Feb 12, 2015 at 1:30 pm

        This article is a advertisement at best. it is a complete joke and has no merits, no proof that it works. It is some teaching pro trying to drum up buisness.

  15. rc

    Feb 11, 2015 at 10:08 pm

    I’m just waiting for the comment here with the youtube link for it :0)

  16. Rob Strano

    Feb 11, 2015 at 9:39 pm

    Thanks for all the comments on the article pro and con. I just got really frustrated last week at the comments during the telecasts on the LPGA and PGA Tours. Mainly this one from Ocala between between Jerry Foltz and Judy Rankin on The Golf Channel telecast.
    Here is the transcript of the conversation:

    Foltz: “I know Judy you get a lot of questions from viewers who look for a definition as to what it is, and it’s impossible to give you an overview that quickly but essentially it’s a modern day way to quantify what you feel with your feet a plumb-bob if you will.”
    Rankin: “And if you stick with us for a few weeks we are going to make every effort to explain this in layman’s terms.”
    Foltz: “You feel the slope with your feet and you learn how to judge it between a scale of 1-5 and then you stand behind the ball hold up those fingers next to the golf ball and where the outside finger is in relation to the hole that is your Aimpoint. It is a little more complicated than that.”
    (Then Lydia Ko makes a super long birdie putt using Aimpoint Express!!)
    Rankin: “I have to ask one more question Jerry…Does it matter which is your dominant eye because it sure did plumb-bobing?”
    Foltz: “Yea, I believe it does. Yea, you just , with plumb-bobbing you are like how Karrie Webb does, and is doing, you have to basically stand perpendicular to the slope and then hold your dominant eye. The putter between your dominant eye and the outside edge of the ball. Very similar with the Aimpoint.”

    Very confusing and it made my head spin listening to them and I know what I am doing. So how must the viewer feel when hearing all that?. It is OK if you do not know something to simply say “I don’t know,” instead of making stuff up. The point is to help the readers understand some correct facts against what they are hearing on telecasts and maybe see why the best players are doing it.

  17. Richard Davis

    Feb 11, 2015 at 9:34 pm

    I’m blind in one eye,a good reader of greens.
    I actually do it with my feet. I learned the art
    of putting from a pro that played in the 1st
    masters. Won’t use his name,son copied righted
    everything he did or said.
    (QUOTE) in real estate 3 important things to remember
    Location…Location…Location
    IN PUTTING POSTURE…BALANCE…FEEL
    Everything starts from the ground up.

  18. Secret

    Feb 11, 2015 at 8:15 pm

    Folks folks folks.

    The reason why there is so much misinformation from guys like Foltz and even good Tour players is this…..: They don’t really want you to know the secret. It’s always been that way.

  19. 8thehardway

    Feb 11, 2015 at 7:48 pm

    So AimPoint mitigates our difficulty reading curves, it’s accurate and easy to learn…
    what differentiates it from a protractor?
    and why is Adam Scott holding up two fingers?

    An overview would have supported your product better than the unexplained correlation with feet, fingers, photos and four paragraphs on non-natural drainage patterns.

    The lack of clarity is doubly annoying because my green reading I’m bad at reading the line

    • Secret

      Feb 11, 2015 at 8:16 pm

      If you take the course, you would know, wouldn’t you? Duh

  20. Preston

    Feb 11, 2015 at 7:40 pm

    I’ll save you folks some money. Here’s how it was explained to me by someone that did go to a teacher on the Aimpoint (not sure if it is correct, but I won’t spend the money on the class to verify it): The number of fingers is the amount of break. The length of your arm (distance from your eye) is the speed of the greens. This is the basic principle. First, you calibrate your arm (distance) to the speed of the green, then decide if the putt is a one finger break, 2 finger break (more break), 3 finger, etc….

    Example: a huge swinger from right to left… you determine that this much elbow bend equals the speed of the green, the amount of break is 2 fingers. Hold that up to the hole in front of you. This will give you your aim point for the putt.

    • Secret

      Feb 11, 2015 at 8:20 pm

      hahahaha what a joke.

    • MAx

      Feb 12, 2015 at 9:24 am

      Thank you for the explanation.

    • skytrooper70

      Feb 19, 2015 at 1:52 pm

      The number of fingers is based upon your getting to know the degree of slope (from 1-5, with the number of fingers equaling that degree). However, you place the index finger over one-half of the cup and determine your aim point, using the outer most finger (again, from 1-5). I never took the course but saw a promo video. My first three rounds since using Aim Point had me draining longer (over 10 feet) putts on a more consistent basis or just burning edges, more consistently. This meant the dreaded 3 putts were history. The key is to get used to your feel for slope and knowing how hard to hit your putts. Personally, whether it’s a cure-all or not is irrelevant. Now, I have much more confident in my reads and that’s what counts for any golf shot–confidence.

      • Rob Strano

        Feb 19, 2015 at 5:35 pm

        “Now, I have much more confident in my reads and that’s what counts for any golf shot–confidence.” Bingo!!! This is what the tour players tell me. They say now I have a plan and feel more confident over the putt…

  21. Cyd

    Feb 11, 2015 at 5:15 pm

    Anyone that listens to Jerry Foltz is asking to miss putts, cuts, greens, fairways and the broad side of a barn.

    Foltz is wrong so often I don’t think he is even watching the same tournament or much less the same shot or putt that I am.

  22. golferjack

    Feb 11, 2015 at 4:57 pm

    How about letting us know what Aimpoint is (I do know this is just a comment) and give us a bit of Information about how it works……..Otherwise I would like to see the Stats from the Players who use it now and how they putted before ….Then maybe I would like to invest my hard earned bucks in a lesson. Just as an extra there, I am quite happy with my putting but new things are often worth a look.

  23. Philip

    Feb 11, 2015 at 4:50 pm

    I’ve learned to just trust myself “my 5 senses, yes all 5”. Works from any distance, slop, or speed of greens and can adjust immediately to changing conditions. I believe many just forgot how to listen to their senses and let that information set them up for the putt. It is almost as if someone else is making the putt for you.

    It tool me a few months last season, but it was a project that is seeing results in all aspects of my game besides putting. Putting just seemed logical to approach first.

  24. Andrew Cooper

    Feb 11, 2015 at 4:26 pm

    Trust your feet don’t trust your eyes? Ok try reading a green with your eyes closed and relying on your feet to feel the slope…

    • Rob Strano

      Feb 11, 2015 at 10:01 pm

      Thanks for your comment Andrew. If you love the game like I do then you have run into this situation. It is late in the day and you say to yourself, “I can squeeze in a quick 9 before dark!” But you don’t quit make it and with 3 holes to play it is hard to see the ball in the air let alone read a green. Over the summer this happened to me and using AE I made 3 in row coming in without being able to see a thing. Years ago on tour (back when it was Buy.com before Nationwide) I was finishing in the near dark, they had not called play because we were two holes from done, and it was darn tough to see. Wish I had this back then!

      • Andrew Cooper

        Feb 12, 2015 at 3:58 am

        Rob, thanks for taking the time to reply. I’m a little skeptical of AE, but obviously lots of good players, yourself included, are devotees so I don’t want to knock it. Just can’t think I’d ever trust my feet to feel a slope over what my eyes are telling me! I can relate to your experiences of playing late in the day and holing putts-maybe because we’re also not over thinking the putt too? more relaxed, lower expectations? I’ve always felt I can read greens well- I’ll hit my share of bad putts but rarely do I get fooled by a break-maybe I’ve a sense of slope coming through my feet without realizing it.

  25. Connor

    Feb 11, 2015 at 3:23 pm

    I live in Seattle, WA and the nearest AimPoint certified coach wanted $600 for a 2-hour lesson.

    …I’d rather 3-putt?

    • Rob Strano

      Feb 11, 2015 at 10:47 pm

      Connor thanks for your comment.
      I charge my normal one hour lesson fee. Interested to know who that is and I cannot imagine they are doing many sessions at that rate.

  26. Mike

    Feb 11, 2015 at 3:12 pm

    Sebastian, here are 3 Aimpoint certified instructors in Canada: Paul Horton Heritage Point Golf Club DeWinton Canada, Derek Ingram Elmhurst Golf and Country Club Winnipeg Canada, Martin Whelan Club de Golf St-Rapha L’lle-Bizard Canada.

  27. Sebastien

    Feb 11, 2015 at 2:48 pm

    I wish I could learn it but are any course offered in Canada?

  28. snowman0157

    Feb 11, 2015 at 12:04 pm

    I have taken the level 1 Aimpoint class (not Express)….but actually I have started using my feet to feel the slope and then trying to just trust it with my stroke….It Works! The feet and brain are very well calibrated it seems. If this is similar to the AP Express method, then I would suggest folks try it.

    • Rob Strano

      Feb 11, 2015 at 10:05 pm

      Snowman thanks for your comment. The article is about Aimpoint Express and glad you understanding the correlation between feet and slope. In a couple of years only the stubborn will rely 100% on the old way to read a green.

  29. Don B

    Feb 11, 2015 at 11:11 am

    Great article, as an Aimpointer myself I get asked all the time what it is and how it works and I am happy to offer a quick lesson or a full scale demo. Doing this doesn’t really make someone good at it, until you spend some time training your feel for slope!
    So that’s where taking a class or two comes in. I have done training with Mark Sweeney and even he will tell you that without practice you will not be as accurate.
    One other point that will no doubt open Pandora’s box, is Grain! Just like Rob mentions that slope doesn’t necessarily break to a body of water or like the TV folks repeatedly say about the setting sun, grain is a misunderstood property of green reading. To put it bluntly, it has little bearing on green reading because “grain is slope”. Grain is the direction in which grass grows and grass grows where water goes. Water goes with the slope!! On today’s greens that are cut much shorter than in the past, grain is negligible.
    The only place grain effects a read is where the grass is longer, say fringe! And the only place grain doesn’t grow with slope is where there is no slope, on really flat spots.
    Aimpoint won’t guarentee you make every putt, but it will sure help you understand how to make more and why you miss when you do. I was always a poor putter but I now feel like I can make everything. And if I dont, it’s usually not far off.

    • Rob Strano

      Feb 11, 2015 at 10:22 pm

      Thanks for your comment Don and your last sentence is dead on…
      When I miss it always looks like it is going to go in but at the last roll just misses.
      Really tightens down your reads.
      Keep it up and make everything in 2015

  30. frendy

    Feb 11, 2015 at 11:00 am

    This article should be filed under ADVERTISEMENT.

    • Zak Kozuchowski

      Feb 11, 2015 at 11:04 am

      It’s filed under opinion, and comes from one of our regular featured instructors who writes about a variety of topics.

      • Knobbywood

        Feb 11, 2015 at 2:13 pm

        This article does not tell you anything about how to use the system but it certainly tries to put the hook in our mouths so we can all go and pay for aimpoint lessons… I agree this is basically an advertisement and I don’t think it should be on golfwrx

      • Preston

        Feb 11, 2015 at 7:32 pm

        I agree, this it definitely not an opinion piece. An opinion piece would offer an opposing viewpoint, usually backed up with some facts. This is a teaser for trying to drum up business for Aimpoint teachers, which the writer just so happens to teach.

        • Travis

          Feb 17, 2015 at 4:00 pm

          I’m not sure you fully comprehend what “opinion” means.

    • Keith

      Feb 11, 2015 at 9:18 pm

      100% agree…but…AimPoint Express is legit and worth it if you can find a pro that doesn’t price gouge for a lesson.

  31. 4pillars

    Feb 11, 2015 at 10:10 am

    The big issue with aimpoint express is that it is so simple you don’t want to tell people how it works because you will lose big $$$$ on your expensive 2 hour classes.

    The actual information on aimpoint express you could write in a ten page ebook.

    Your article dosn’t in fact explain how aimpoint express works.

    I’m not knocking aimpoint express as a technique – I use it myself – just the $$$$ mentality around it.

    • Knobbywood

      Feb 11, 2015 at 2:23 pm

      Bullseye! First article on this site to actually make me feel disgust… Sad as this is one of my favorite sites 🙁 and this guy one of the best writers too…

      • Rob Strano

        Feb 11, 2015 at 10:41 pm

        Knobbywood thanks for your comment and sorry you feel so strongly that way. If you read my lengthy comment above you see that my desire to write this comes from all the incorrect commentary on the telecasts. Why does everyone have a hard time saying, “I simply do not know enough to have an informed opinion?” Also, I am unaware of the big $$$ around AE. I charge the same rate as my hourly lesson fee.

        Thank you for also saying I am one of the better writers. That was very kind of you. Don’t personally feel that way and am just trying to help everyone enjoy the game more and play better by sharing information from lessons at my academy.
        BTW, your handle would make a great golf course name:
        Knobbywood Golf Club – Pine Forest, Illinois

    • Dennis Corley

      Feb 11, 2015 at 2:26 pm

      In my opinion:
      Pricing of a product or service should be about “value” not “volume”. Just because the inventor can explain the innovative process in a short and simple fashion should not make it “less valuable” or “less expensive”. In fact I think it is more valuable how the process has so simplified some complex science.

      Value is set by the consumer. If the seller can help you putt significantly better with a small amount of information – how much is it worth to you? Many golfers are paying $250-$500 to get 10 more yards on a drive. I would argue that the benefits to score are more significant with AimPoint Express than a new driver.

      I will also say that, like stealing someone’s music with something like Napster, stealing the Aimpoint Express methods is not “OK” just because it is easy to communicate. (I am not suggesting that you specifically are going to steal it.)

      I have taken two AimPoint Express clinics. It is fast, effective, and worth the price– to me. If it is not to you, that is fine, just don’t then feel OK to steal the information.

  32. Jesse

    Feb 11, 2015 at 10:01 am

    Great article there is so much disinformation about Aimpoint im glad you cleaned it all up. I’ll be taking an Aimpoint clinic this year and am excited to try it out as putting has always been the worst part of my game.

    • Rob Strano

      Feb 11, 2015 at 10:43 pm

      Thanks for the comment Jesse. It will help you tighten up your reads a lot. One of the main questions I get from players who tell me putting is the worst part of their game is how do I read a green. This will help you a bunch.
      Play well in 2015 and make lot of putts!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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