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Opinion & Analysis

Tiger’s struggles are one for the books

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Well, here we go again. This story is about Tiger Woods, so if you’re tired of reading articles about him, you can stop now.

At the Waste Management Phoenix Open, I witnessed a debacle I never thought I’d see. Not just from Tiger Woods, but from ANY tour player EVER! There are members at my club who would not have hit as many poor shots as Tiger hit around the greens. What the heck was I watching? I simply couldn’t believe it.

Related: Tiger misses the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open… by a mile

To me, Tiger Woods treated all of us to the greatest golf anyone has ever seen for some 12 years. Yesterday was the 13th missed cut of his professional career. Think about that — 13 missed cuts in nearly 20 years!

This is a guy who once played an Open Championship at St. Andrews without finding a single bunker on the Old Course!

This is the guy who won the U.S. Open by 15 shots, shooting 12-under on a golf course where the next best score was 3-over.

This is a guy who, during one stretch, won 60 percent of the World Golf Championship events in which he competed.

He won 4 straight majors. He went 142 events in a row without missing a cut (that’s 7 years)!

I could go on and on, but you get the point. So I ask this simple question, to which there are a gazillion opinions: WHY?

What could have happened in such a short of a period of time to cause such a monumental collapse? Forget Seve Ballesteros, Ian Baker-Finch, David Duval and all the rest of the very good tour players who have lost their games; this is TIGER WOODS we are talking about!

Remember the chip-ins at Augusta and Muirfield Village, the shot in the dark at Firestone and the 7-iron from the rough on No. 6 at Pebble? Remember the 6-iron at the Canadian Open and the 3-iron from the bunker on No. 18 at Hazeltine? Remember the putts at Medinah? Remember the 8-footer at Torrey Pines that forced a playoff at the 2008 U.S. Open that he won? How could a player who did all that be in this much of a funk?

At TPC Scottsdale, Tiger said he was “caught between patterns.” I can’t imagine Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan or Bobby Jones describing their bad rounds quite like that. For Tiger, to be unable to move the golf ball 10 feet from the edge of the green, is surreal. I don’t care what pattern you’re using, Tiger, it’s a chip shot for goodness sake!

I am/was a run-of-the-mill club pro and I’ve never hit that many poor short shots in a round in my life, and Tiger could beat me left-handed at his best.

But here is the real dilemma. Tiger’s problems are beyond mechanical. Well beyond. His problem around the greens cannot be corrected by a different pattern, a different stance or a different ball position. He is now engaged in the great battle of the mind that has sent player after player to their golfing demise.

Does anyone actually believe — even for a minute — that Tiger Woods doesn’t know how to hit a chip or a pitch? Are we to believe that a man with the greatest short game any of us have ever seen needs a chipping lesson? Seriously?

No, Tiger’s woes, as displayed at TPC Scottsdale (and December’s Hero Challenge, for that matter) are much, much deeper. The greatest player I’ve ever seen is confused and filled with self doubt. He has lost the inner belief that he can play and win at the highest level. He has sunk to such a level that he even doubts his ability to get the golf ball on the green from 10 yards.

Tiger seems to be standing over simple chip shots fearing skulling, chili-dipping and shanking. TIGER WOODS! The man with strongest mental game ever, perhaps! And the worst news is that this may not be temporary. I’ve seen very few cases of temporary yips.

“Once you’ve had em, you’ve got em” Sam Snead once said.

And I’ve seen that affliction become permanent more than a few times. Every chunk, skull or shank leaves a deep, indelible scar!

This is one for the books. It is perhaps the most stirring comment on the mental side of golf I’ve ever seen. If golf can break down the likes of Tiger Woods, it can destroy anyone! And as I write, it appears to have done just that!

Tiger, please, please get it together. Whatever is troubling you, get some help with it. The professional game is rather mundane without you.

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Dennis Clark is a PGA Master Professional. Clark has taught the game of golf for more than 30 years to golfers all across the country, and is recognized as one of the leading teachers in the country by all the major golf publications. He is also is a seven-time PGA award winner who has earned the following distinctions: -- Teacher of the Year, Philadelphia Section PGA -- Teacher of the Year, Golfers Journal -- Top Teacher in Pennsylvania, Golf Magazine -- Top Teacher in Mid Atlantic Region, Golf Digest -- Earned PGA Advanced Specialty certification in Teaching/Coaching Golf -- Achieved Master Professional Status (held by less than 2 percent of PGA members) -- PGA Merchandiser of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Golf Professional of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Presidents Plaque Award for Promotion and Growth of the Game of Golf -- Junior Golf Leader, Tri State section PGA -- Served on Tri State PGA Board of Directors. Clark is also former Director of Golf and Instruction at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort. Dennis now teaches at Bobby Clampett's Impact Zone Golf Indoor Performance Center in Naples, FL. .

45 Comments

45 Comments

  1. MasterGeezer

    Feb 23, 2015 at 12:16 pm

    No. I mean, yes, it can look pretty yippy when you’re working on a different feeling, committed to doing it, trying it out in a tournament and screwing it up.

    A golf swing is a lot like a race car. You ‘build’ your car based on some fundamentals and then, hopefully, internalize them to where your subconscious is the car (how you strike the ball) and you can just ‘drive your car’ around the course. Tiger couldn’t get Foley’s method to take hold, subconsciously. We all saw him playing ‘golf swing’ instead of just driving his car. So he’s trying to go back to his ‘original swing,’ probably with a few physiological tweaks, as his new race car.

    Its totally unsurprising to see Tiger’s ‘car’ wobbling around on a dirt-track test run like the Phoenix Open.

    Golf yappers claim ‘well he can remember how to chip, just do it like he used to’ . . . which is another way of saying, ‘just jump out of the race car you’re testing.’

  2. RG

    Feb 13, 2015 at 12:43 am

    Dennis I told you when I watched him I could see the fearin his eyes. He has never known fear and its ways and he is ill prepared to deal with it. Somehow he has to find the joy in playing again.Forget about 18 majors and crashed cars and go out there and make shots because it feels good. If he cannot find his joy we will never see him again.

  3. WarrenPeace

    Feb 2, 2015 at 5:19 pm

    I’ve had the chipping yips before and with a lot of practice and I mean a lot or reps, one gains back lost confidence- who knows why it happens except when it does happen in a tournament- it leaves a scar especially if you are playing well. Then the doubt creeps in over every little shot- will I fat it, chunk it, skull it, or even the dreaded double hit- it comes from hesitating at impact and that is in your head- not found in a technical pattern. Next thing you do is start hybriding and hitting low punch shots from the fringe and beyond- just to get it on the green- forget about the flag. It’s awful to say the least when everyone you play with tightens up when you pull a lofted club to chip! He will work through it and become a fantastic short game wizard because Tiger won’t let this beat him- in fact it will challenge him. I’ll be out at Torrey Pines next week for the Farmers watching to see if he is still flinching. That wire grass will eat him alive if he doesn’t use some bounce. No bump and runs this week allowed and he knows that at Torrey.

  4. Steve

    Feb 2, 2015 at 4:40 pm

    Like I posted in another forum. He can’t find the bottom of his swing? Is he serious? In ten minutes of short game practice he can’t figure it out, if he can’t he is completely lost. Hitting 4 iron bump and runs, because he has no confidence chipping no pitching. He is mentality done, atleast right now. Worrying about swing positions, instead of shot shape. I remember at his best he was a range rat, hitting shots high low left right. Maybe he should just go back to his 9 full shots in golf.

  5. suye

    Feb 2, 2015 at 3:02 pm

    Dennis, I think it’s a mind issues and I long for the return of the exciting shots and rounds from Tiger. Incidentally I read an article yesterday. http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/825651.html
    I was wondering after reading these two articles if the intensity has caused mental exhaustion which causes this kind of play outcomes? Just an observation on my part and I have not had chance to know such great sports players. Would like to hear your comments?

  6. Scott

    Feb 2, 2015 at 1:09 pm

    I don’t believe there has been anyone in golf with greater will power than Woods. Maybe Hogan and a few others were his equal there, maybe not. So, if he does have the yips we are going to see whether or not anyone can overcome them through sheer determination. Maybe Snead was right, maybe not.

  7. Bb

    Feb 2, 2015 at 1:07 pm

    This is what happens when tiger comes to WRX and reads all of that BS that Monte posts . Guy knows nothing about the swing

  8. snowman

    Feb 2, 2015 at 1:00 pm

    Agree that it has Got to be Mental now…. statement is correct re: I don’t care what pattern (or technique) is used.. its a damn chip shot and he is Tiger Woods. Tiger will probably suppress the chipping yips and come back and play good golf, but now that he “has ’em” they will probably always be lurking and show up at unfortunate moments (once you got ’em you got ’em).. Pressure will expose this as a weakness in his game… I’ll be surprised if he is ever again Houdini around the greens like he once was. Sad really unless you are a Tiger hater.

  9. Pat Barry

    Feb 2, 2015 at 12:05 pm

    The quotation I came across is “Once you’ve got em, you always have them” and it came from the heading on a Chapter in a book by Julius Boros, winner of three majors in the 50’s and 60’s and many other tournaments. A friend gave me a photocopy of the chapter when he heard I had the same affliction over 20 years ago. I still have them on the greens but Matt Kuchar’s putting technique (and putter) has made a huge difference over the past six months.

  10. Bob

    Feb 2, 2015 at 11:58 am

    I’m reminded of Steve Blass, pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the early 1970s. He pitched two complete games in the 1971 World Series, winning both, and went 19-8 in 1972. But in 1973 he couldn’t find the plate, going to 3-9 and dropping from 249 innings pitched to 88. In 1974, he pitched one game. He went five innings, gave up five hits, two of them home runs, walked seven, and threw one wild pitch. That was the last time he pitched in the big leagues. He was not injured, there was nothing wrong with his mechanics, he just lost it.

    Chuck Noblauch late in his career suddenly not being able to hit the first baseman with his throw from second comes to mind, too.

  11. Derrick

    Feb 2, 2015 at 10:21 am

    I don’t understand the thought process of the people here who feel insulted or angry at the fact Tiger is stating he’s in between patterns. It’s obvious what is going on with this game.

    If Tiger came right out post-round and just said something to the effect of, “Yea it’s pretty obvious I’m dealing with the yips right now…”

    No one reporting on the event would even know what to say. He’s trying to put his game back together plain and simple. He doesn’t owe ANYONE an explanation.

  12. Rich

    Feb 2, 2015 at 8:36 am

    He’s done. Let’s put him out to pasture or better still, let’s hang his head on the wall behind someone’s bar cause that’s all it’s good for now. Actually, it’s no good for that either!

  13. Booger

    Feb 1, 2015 at 11:54 pm

    Blah,blah,blah. Enough with the tiger articles!

  14. Anon

    Feb 1, 2015 at 10:44 pm

    And here come the armchair quarterbacks saying what they think Tiger should do. Go back to shooting in the 80’s you hacks.

  15. SBoss

    Feb 1, 2015 at 9:33 pm

    Smizzle, you honestly believe that somebody needs scientific proof to say that Tiger Woods was the best and toughest mentally?
    Were you in hibernation between 1997-2008? New to golf?
    Does somebody need proof to say that Rosie O’Donnell is a pig? Nope.
    Some things are self evident. OK?

  16. Jm

    Feb 1, 2015 at 8:45 pm

    Just remember how much he struggled with his short game the first year with foley. Obviously not nearly as bad as this but it was not pretty with some chunks and bad bunker play. It took him a year to get used to the foley “pattern”. I imagine considering his health it will take 9-18 months before we see what will happen under como.

    Also you have to remember tiger is almost always fully committed to what he is trying to change. Just because he struggles in the beginning he is not the type to revert back to something that has worked in the past just to get through a round at the Phoenix open. He is just not wired that way. It has been one of his greatest strengths but also a source of weakness as well. If he believes the end result will be there he will keep at it at all costs. Not saying foley swing was perfect but once he got it he had a five win season. Not too may golfers ever can say that especially in the last 40 years.

    He will come back, tourneys like this only push him harder. I give it until the end of the year before we see what the true potential of the rest of his career may be. I still believe he will get 16 more wins and a couple more majors

  17. Wes

    Feb 1, 2015 at 7:47 pm

    What do you mean by beware?
    Seems like this could happen to anyone so what could you do to prevent it?

  18. Tee Jay In

    Feb 1, 2015 at 6:59 pm

    I don’t remeber Sam Snead’s quote exactly about the yips but he said something like
    once you’ve had em, you’ve got em
    This may apply to Tiger’s short game problem

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 7:02 pm

      Yea it’s in the article.

    • Zachary Smith

      Feb 2, 2015 at 11:53 am

      I will admit that I have always wanted Tiger’s short game. I’m pretty sure he didn’t want mine.

  19. Gloover

    Feb 1, 2015 at 5:07 pm

    I think he’s fooled himself into thinking his short game woes are technique-related. He is so committed to his new swing (he must be a proponent of the short game swing mirroring the long game one) that he will stubbornly play his chips and pitches the way he thinks they should be played rather than just hitting it. He is bull-headed to a fault and will only play the game how he sees fit, even if that includes looking like he has the yips.

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 6:06 pm

      Agree totally. He can’t let himself believe otherwise.

  20. Dennis Clark

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:57 pm

    remember guys, this is about more than Tiger! You have to see the lesson here…the game has gotten to one of the strongest minds ever to play it. It’s a fascinating dynamic! If golf can get to Tiger, the rest of better BEWARE!!! 🙂

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 6:05 pm

      Golf, read above.

    • TR1PTIK

      Feb 2, 2015 at 8:26 am

      I’ve been listening to some of Dr. Rotella’s audio books and I would absolutely agree that it’s all in Tiger’s mind at this point. He’s lost confidence in his game and there’s nothing he can do physically to fix that. It’s all internal. Lessons from the world’s best coaches won’t matter unless he has absolute confidence in himself.

      “Victories are won in the hearts and minds of men.” – Vince Lombardi (as quoted by Dr. Bob Rotella)

  21. farmer

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:40 pm

    Lost in the mix is how poorly Tiger played from tee to around the greens. Drove it everywhere, irons not sharp when he had a play, and his putting was not good. He said he was stuck between patterns, but which patterns? The Anselmo? Butch? Haney? Foley or Como? Years from now, when Tiger’s career can be examined dispassionately, the meme may be “What might have been.”.

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 6:08 pm

      Agree farmer. But he’s hit it like that before and shot 70. His ability to scramble was the BEST.

  22. Javier

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:15 pm

    Excelente article Dennis

  23. Tig Woods

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:08 pm

    Atleast this didn’t mention my philandering ways. Monies quiet the honies!

  24. Tee Jay In

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:02 pm

    If you’re gonna write an article about Tiger’s problems, you should at least mention his inability to chip or pitch around the greens.

  25. mo

    Feb 1, 2015 at 3:55 pm

    Time for a Dave Pelz and Dave Stockton intervention.

  26. Richard Grime

    Feb 1, 2015 at 3:46 pm

    I agree completely with the Stan Utley with the short game. I think that he should give Hank Haney a call though. When he was with Hank he used to open the face on the backswing and close it through the ball, which also works in to your short game. This is my understanding with Stan Utley coaching in the short game. You can work with a shut club face, but can tend to get a bit stabby through the shot unless you keep the body opening through the shot.

  27. Golfraven

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:59 pm

    Saying golf without Tiger is mundane is far-fetched. Yes he has a great record and made hell of money but he is not great to watch. Could be that many love someone like Tiger because of his achievements but he is not great to watch, he makes me miserable watching him play. I enjoyed watching majors last years without needing to hear that Tiger will bite again and was pleased to see some rookies getting better coverage.

  28. Gary

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:55 pm

    Tiger should get himself a couple of short game lessons with short game Guru Stan Utley.he would get his basics back to where they should be and his confidence would return.
    Then he could do worse than get Pete Cowen to give him a long game lesson,not sure his current coach is any good!
    He is a long way off doing any good in any competions .

  29. Fore Left

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:26 pm

    Tiger’s last two events have been painful to watch. At some point, doesn’t he have to consider going back to picking up waitresses at the local IHOP?

  30. Philip

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:21 pm

    I always wondered how tough Tiger’s mind was on the inside. His father helped him brilliantly on shutting out outside distractions, but did he also help him with the inner demons. With Tiger always being the best, able to do anything he set his mind too, able to pull wins from what others thought would be a loss – did he ever have to fight the inner demon of being a failure until very late in his life.

    For most of us we take on that demon fairly early (and often) in life, but for someone who is always used to being at the top it can be quite demoralizing when they experience not being the best, especially if they are beat by the underdog.

    I’ve remember many young athletics going from local schools to high schools never able to accept no longer being the best as they had no experience at failure. Whereas, others who were never the best were able to persevere through each increase in the talent pool and push on to success in the higher levels of play.

  31. Kevin

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:00 pm

    He was in Europe last week watching skiing, not practicing. I’m not sure anyone can say he looked at this week as any more than a tune-up with the Super Bowl afterwards. 18 months ago he was dominating the game. The year before that he looked lost too. He has the greatest short game in the history of golf. The chunks and skulls and yips are odd, but I am not betting against him to be back to form again sooner than later. Though I am enjoying watching his struggles…

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 2:07 pm

      Funny thing is he didn’t even stay for the bowl!!!

  32. Paul Muehlemeyer

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:55 pm

    I don’t think Tiger’s been the same since the blow up in ’08 and he’s older now and may never have the physical skills he once did. That coupled with the mental state he seems to be in makes for a very long road.

  33. Dennis Clark

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:47 pm

    Pls understand the comparison to me should read: EVEN I, a lowly club pro, have not struggled like that. Point being how can one so much better than i be in that much trouble? Also note to my readers: I’m a HUGE tiger fan. What he’s done for the game is nothing short of incredible. No one wants him to get back more than I.

  34. Jeffcb

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:22 pm

    Dennis – I agree completely. Tiger said in the interview that he’s getting used to ball position with regards to having a shallower angle of attack. Is it that difficult with a pitch? There’s gotta be just a ton of self doubt it seems. I would love too see him come back. Perhaps its too early to write him off. After all how long did it take Kaymer to complete his swing change? Faldo too for that matter. The again, it Kuchar 5 swings to feel what he should be doing. Time will tell I suppose.

    • Rich

      Feb 2, 2015 at 7:43 am

      Kaymer didn’t. He went back to hitting his cut like when he was world no.1 and he’s starting to put it together now that he’s got his confidence.

  35. ChrisK

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:14 pm

    Good article, Dennis
    It’s absolutely asinine for Tiger to say his problems are because he’s ‘in between’ patterns. There’s no reason why his short game would have to be any different than it was when he was the best player in the galaxy. If indeed he was making changes, then he has had enough time to incorporate them enough to take them to the course. If not, don’t play in a tournament. If he keeps going to mechanical teachers, I think he will only get worse. Hope I’m wrong.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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