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Tiger’s struggles are one for the books

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Well, here we go again. This story is about Tiger Woods, so if you’re tired of reading articles about him, you can stop now.

At the Waste Management Phoenix Open, I witnessed a debacle I never thought I’d see. Not just from Tiger Woods, but from ANY tour player EVER! There are members at my club who would not have hit as many poor shots as Tiger hit around the greens. What the heck was I watching? I simply couldn’t believe it.

Related: Tiger misses the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open… by a mile

To me, Tiger Woods treated all of us to the greatest golf anyone has ever seen for some 12 years. Yesterday was the 13th missed cut of his professional career. Think about that — 13 missed cuts in nearly 20 years!

This is a guy who once played an Open Championship at St. Andrews without finding a single bunker on the Old Course!

This is the guy who won the U.S. Open by 15 shots, shooting 12-under on a golf course where the next best score was 3-over.

This is a guy who, during one stretch, won 60 percent of the World Golf Championship events in which he competed.

He won 4 straight majors. He went 142 events in a row without missing a cut (that’s 7 years)!

I could go on and on, but you get the point. So I ask this simple question, to which there are a gazillion opinions: WHY?

What could have happened in such a short of a period of time to cause such a monumental collapse? Forget Seve Ballesteros, Ian Baker-Finch, David Duval and all the rest of the very good tour players who have lost their games; this is TIGER WOODS we are talking about!

Remember the chip-ins at Augusta and Muirfield Village, the shot in the dark at Firestone and the 7-iron from the rough on No. 6 at Pebble? Remember the 6-iron at the Canadian Open and the 3-iron from the bunker on No. 18 at Hazeltine? Remember the putts at Medinah? Remember the 8-footer at Torrey Pines that forced a playoff at the 2008 U.S. Open that he won? How could a player who did all that be in this much of a funk?

At TPC Scottsdale, Tiger said he was “caught between patterns.” I can’t imagine Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan or Bobby Jones describing their bad rounds quite like that. For Tiger, to be unable to move the golf ball 10 feet from the edge of the green, is surreal. I don’t care what pattern you’re using, Tiger, it’s a chip shot for goodness sake!

I am/was a run-of-the-mill club pro and I’ve never hit that many poor short shots in a round in my life, and Tiger could beat me left-handed at his best.

But here is the real dilemma. Tiger’s problems are beyond mechanical. Well beyond. His problem around the greens cannot be corrected by a different pattern, a different stance or a different ball position. He is now engaged in the great battle of the mind that has sent player after player to their golfing demise.

Does anyone actually believe — even for a minute — that Tiger Woods doesn’t know how to hit a chip or a pitch? Are we to believe that a man with the greatest short game any of us have ever seen needs a chipping lesson? Seriously?

No, Tiger’s woes, as displayed at TPC Scottsdale (and December’s Hero Challenge, for that matter) are much, much deeper. The greatest player I’ve ever seen is confused and filled with self doubt. He has lost the inner belief that he can play and win at the highest level. He has sunk to such a level that he even doubts his ability to get the golf ball on the green from 10 yards.

Tiger seems to be standing over simple chip shots fearing skulling, chili-dipping and shanking. TIGER WOODS! The man with strongest mental game ever, perhaps! And the worst news is that this may not be temporary. I’ve seen very few cases of temporary yips.

“Once you’ve had em, you’ve got em” Sam Snead once said.

And I’ve seen that affliction become permanent more than a few times. Every chunk, skull or shank leaves a deep, indelible scar!

This is one for the books. It is perhaps the most stirring comment on the mental side of golf I’ve ever seen. If golf can break down the likes of Tiger Woods, it can destroy anyone! And as I write, it appears to have done just that!

Tiger, please, please get it together. Whatever is troubling you, get some help with it. The professional game is rather mundane without you.

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Dennis Clark is a PGA Master Professional. Clark has taught the game of golf for more than 30 years to golfers all across the country, and is recognized as one of the leading teachers in the country by all the major golf publications. He is also is a seven-time PGA award winner who has earned the following distinctions: -- Teacher of the Year, Philadelphia Section PGA -- Teacher of the Year, Golfers Journal -- Top Teacher in Pennsylvania, Golf Magazine -- Top Teacher in Mid Atlantic Region, Golf Digest -- Earned PGA Advanced Specialty certification in Teaching/Coaching Golf -- Achieved Master Professional Status (held by less than 2 percent of PGA members) -- PGA Merchandiser of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Golf Professional of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Presidents Plaque Award for Promotion and Growth of the Game of Golf -- Junior Golf Leader, Tri State section PGA -- Served on Tri State PGA Board of Directors. Clark is also former Director of Golf and Instruction at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort. Dennis now teaches at Bobby Clampett's Impact Zone Golf Indoor Performance Center in Naples, FL. .

45 Comments

45 Comments

  1. MasterGeezer

    Feb 23, 2015 at 12:16 pm

    No. I mean, yes, it can look pretty yippy when you’re working on a different feeling, committed to doing it, trying it out in a tournament and screwing it up.

    A golf swing is a lot like a race car. You ‘build’ your car based on some fundamentals and then, hopefully, internalize them to where your subconscious is the car (how you strike the ball) and you can just ‘drive your car’ around the course. Tiger couldn’t get Foley’s method to take hold, subconsciously. We all saw him playing ‘golf swing’ instead of just driving his car. So he’s trying to go back to his ‘original swing,’ probably with a few physiological tweaks, as his new race car.

    Its totally unsurprising to see Tiger’s ‘car’ wobbling around on a dirt-track test run like the Phoenix Open.

    Golf yappers claim ‘well he can remember how to chip, just do it like he used to’ . . . which is another way of saying, ‘just jump out of the race car you’re testing.’

  2. RG

    Feb 13, 2015 at 12:43 am

    Dennis I told you when I watched him I could see the fearin his eyes. He has never known fear and its ways and he is ill prepared to deal with it. Somehow he has to find the joy in playing again.Forget about 18 majors and crashed cars and go out there and make shots because it feels good. If he cannot find his joy we will never see him again.

  3. WarrenPeace

    Feb 2, 2015 at 5:19 pm

    I’ve had the chipping yips before and with a lot of practice and I mean a lot or reps, one gains back lost confidence- who knows why it happens except when it does happen in a tournament- it leaves a scar especially if you are playing well. Then the doubt creeps in over every little shot- will I fat it, chunk it, skull it, or even the dreaded double hit- it comes from hesitating at impact and that is in your head- not found in a technical pattern. Next thing you do is start hybriding and hitting low punch shots from the fringe and beyond- just to get it on the green- forget about the flag. It’s awful to say the least when everyone you play with tightens up when you pull a lofted club to chip! He will work through it and become a fantastic short game wizard because Tiger won’t let this beat him- in fact it will challenge him. I’ll be out at Torrey Pines next week for the Farmers watching to see if he is still flinching. That wire grass will eat him alive if he doesn’t use some bounce. No bump and runs this week allowed and he knows that at Torrey.

  4. Steve

    Feb 2, 2015 at 4:40 pm

    Like I posted in another forum. He can’t find the bottom of his swing? Is he serious? In ten minutes of short game practice he can’t figure it out, if he can’t he is completely lost. Hitting 4 iron bump and runs, because he has no confidence chipping no pitching. He is mentality done, atleast right now. Worrying about swing positions, instead of shot shape. I remember at his best he was a range rat, hitting shots high low left right. Maybe he should just go back to his 9 full shots in golf.

  5. suye

    Feb 2, 2015 at 3:02 pm

    Dennis, I think it’s a mind issues and I long for the return of the exciting shots and rounds from Tiger. Incidentally I read an article yesterday. http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/825651.html
    I was wondering after reading these two articles if the intensity has caused mental exhaustion which causes this kind of play outcomes? Just an observation on my part and I have not had chance to know such great sports players. Would like to hear your comments?

  6. Scott

    Feb 2, 2015 at 1:09 pm

    I don’t believe there has been anyone in golf with greater will power than Woods. Maybe Hogan and a few others were his equal there, maybe not. So, if he does have the yips we are going to see whether or not anyone can overcome them through sheer determination. Maybe Snead was right, maybe not.

  7. Bb

    Feb 2, 2015 at 1:07 pm

    This is what happens when tiger comes to WRX and reads all of that BS that Monte posts . Guy knows nothing about the swing

  8. snowman

    Feb 2, 2015 at 1:00 pm

    Agree that it has Got to be Mental now…. statement is correct re: I don’t care what pattern (or technique) is used.. its a damn chip shot and he is Tiger Woods. Tiger will probably suppress the chipping yips and come back and play good golf, but now that he “has ’em” they will probably always be lurking and show up at unfortunate moments (once you got ’em you got ’em).. Pressure will expose this as a weakness in his game… I’ll be surprised if he is ever again Houdini around the greens like he once was. Sad really unless you are a Tiger hater.

  9. Pat Barry

    Feb 2, 2015 at 12:05 pm

    The quotation I came across is “Once you’ve got em, you always have them” and it came from the heading on a Chapter in a book by Julius Boros, winner of three majors in the 50’s and 60’s and many other tournaments. A friend gave me a photocopy of the chapter when he heard I had the same affliction over 20 years ago. I still have them on the greens but Matt Kuchar’s putting technique (and putter) has made a huge difference over the past six months.

  10. Bob

    Feb 2, 2015 at 11:58 am

    I’m reminded of Steve Blass, pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the early 1970s. He pitched two complete games in the 1971 World Series, winning both, and went 19-8 in 1972. But in 1973 he couldn’t find the plate, going to 3-9 and dropping from 249 innings pitched to 88. In 1974, he pitched one game. He went five innings, gave up five hits, two of them home runs, walked seven, and threw one wild pitch. That was the last time he pitched in the big leagues. He was not injured, there was nothing wrong with his mechanics, he just lost it.

    Chuck Noblauch late in his career suddenly not being able to hit the first baseman with his throw from second comes to mind, too.

  11. Derrick

    Feb 2, 2015 at 10:21 am

    I don’t understand the thought process of the people here who feel insulted or angry at the fact Tiger is stating he’s in between patterns. It’s obvious what is going on with this game.

    If Tiger came right out post-round and just said something to the effect of, “Yea it’s pretty obvious I’m dealing with the yips right now…”

    No one reporting on the event would even know what to say. He’s trying to put his game back together plain and simple. He doesn’t owe ANYONE an explanation.

  12. Rich

    Feb 2, 2015 at 8:36 am

    He’s done. Let’s put him out to pasture or better still, let’s hang his head on the wall behind someone’s bar cause that’s all it’s good for now. Actually, it’s no good for that either!

  13. Booger

    Feb 1, 2015 at 11:54 pm

    Blah,blah,blah. Enough with the tiger articles!

  14. Anon

    Feb 1, 2015 at 10:44 pm

    And here come the armchair quarterbacks saying what they think Tiger should do. Go back to shooting in the 80’s you hacks.

  15. SBoss

    Feb 1, 2015 at 9:33 pm

    Smizzle, you honestly believe that somebody needs scientific proof to say that Tiger Woods was the best and toughest mentally?
    Were you in hibernation between 1997-2008? New to golf?
    Does somebody need proof to say that Rosie O’Donnell is a pig? Nope.
    Some things are self evident. OK?

  16. Jm

    Feb 1, 2015 at 8:45 pm

    Just remember how much he struggled with his short game the first year with foley. Obviously not nearly as bad as this but it was not pretty with some chunks and bad bunker play. It took him a year to get used to the foley “pattern”. I imagine considering his health it will take 9-18 months before we see what will happen under como.

    Also you have to remember tiger is almost always fully committed to what he is trying to change. Just because he struggles in the beginning he is not the type to revert back to something that has worked in the past just to get through a round at the Phoenix open. He is just not wired that way. It has been one of his greatest strengths but also a source of weakness as well. If he believes the end result will be there he will keep at it at all costs. Not saying foley swing was perfect but once he got it he had a five win season. Not too may golfers ever can say that especially in the last 40 years.

    He will come back, tourneys like this only push him harder. I give it until the end of the year before we see what the true potential of the rest of his career may be. I still believe he will get 16 more wins and a couple more majors

  17. Wes

    Feb 1, 2015 at 7:47 pm

    What do you mean by beware?
    Seems like this could happen to anyone so what could you do to prevent it?

  18. Tee Jay In

    Feb 1, 2015 at 6:59 pm

    I don’t remeber Sam Snead’s quote exactly about the yips but he said something like
    once you’ve had em, you’ve got em
    This may apply to Tiger’s short game problem

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 7:02 pm

      Yea it’s in the article.

    • Zachary Smith

      Feb 2, 2015 at 11:53 am

      I will admit that I have always wanted Tiger’s short game. I’m pretty sure he didn’t want mine.

  19. Gloover

    Feb 1, 2015 at 5:07 pm

    I think he’s fooled himself into thinking his short game woes are technique-related. He is so committed to his new swing (he must be a proponent of the short game swing mirroring the long game one) that he will stubbornly play his chips and pitches the way he thinks they should be played rather than just hitting it. He is bull-headed to a fault and will only play the game how he sees fit, even if that includes looking like he has the yips.

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 6:06 pm

      Agree totally. He can’t let himself believe otherwise.

  20. Dennis Clark

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:57 pm

    remember guys, this is about more than Tiger! You have to see the lesson here…the game has gotten to one of the strongest minds ever to play it. It’s a fascinating dynamic! If golf can get to Tiger, the rest of better BEWARE!!! 🙂

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 6:05 pm

      Golf, read above.

    • TR1PTIK

      Feb 2, 2015 at 8:26 am

      I’ve been listening to some of Dr. Rotella’s audio books and I would absolutely agree that it’s all in Tiger’s mind at this point. He’s lost confidence in his game and there’s nothing he can do physically to fix that. It’s all internal. Lessons from the world’s best coaches won’t matter unless he has absolute confidence in himself.

      “Victories are won in the hearts and minds of men.” – Vince Lombardi (as quoted by Dr. Bob Rotella)

  21. farmer

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:40 pm

    Lost in the mix is how poorly Tiger played from tee to around the greens. Drove it everywhere, irons not sharp when he had a play, and his putting was not good. He said he was stuck between patterns, but which patterns? The Anselmo? Butch? Haney? Foley or Como? Years from now, when Tiger’s career can be examined dispassionately, the meme may be “What might have been.”.

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 6:08 pm

      Agree farmer. But he’s hit it like that before and shot 70. His ability to scramble was the BEST.

  22. Javier

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:15 pm

    Excelente article Dennis

  23. Tig Woods

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:08 pm

    Atleast this didn’t mention my philandering ways. Monies quiet the honies!

  24. Tee Jay In

    Feb 1, 2015 at 4:02 pm

    If you’re gonna write an article about Tiger’s problems, you should at least mention his inability to chip or pitch around the greens.

  25. mo

    Feb 1, 2015 at 3:55 pm

    Time for a Dave Pelz and Dave Stockton intervention.

  26. Richard Grime

    Feb 1, 2015 at 3:46 pm

    I agree completely with the Stan Utley with the short game. I think that he should give Hank Haney a call though. When he was with Hank he used to open the face on the backswing and close it through the ball, which also works in to your short game. This is my understanding with Stan Utley coaching in the short game. You can work with a shut club face, but can tend to get a bit stabby through the shot unless you keep the body opening through the shot.

  27. Golfraven

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:59 pm

    Saying golf without Tiger is mundane is far-fetched. Yes he has a great record and made hell of money but he is not great to watch. Could be that many love someone like Tiger because of his achievements but he is not great to watch, he makes me miserable watching him play. I enjoyed watching majors last years without needing to hear that Tiger will bite again and was pleased to see some rookies getting better coverage.

  28. Gary

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:55 pm

    Tiger should get himself a couple of short game lessons with short game Guru Stan Utley.he would get his basics back to where they should be and his confidence would return.
    Then he could do worse than get Pete Cowen to give him a long game lesson,not sure his current coach is any good!
    He is a long way off doing any good in any competions .

  29. Fore Left

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:26 pm

    Tiger’s last two events have been painful to watch. At some point, doesn’t he have to consider going back to picking up waitresses at the local IHOP?

  30. Philip

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:21 pm

    I always wondered how tough Tiger’s mind was on the inside. His father helped him brilliantly on shutting out outside distractions, but did he also help him with the inner demons. With Tiger always being the best, able to do anything he set his mind too, able to pull wins from what others thought would be a loss – did he ever have to fight the inner demon of being a failure until very late in his life.

    For most of us we take on that demon fairly early (and often) in life, but for someone who is always used to being at the top it can be quite demoralizing when they experience not being the best, especially if they are beat by the underdog.

    I’ve remember many young athletics going from local schools to high schools never able to accept no longer being the best as they had no experience at failure. Whereas, others who were never the best were able to persevere through each increase in the talent pool and push on to success in the higher levels of play.

  31. Kevin

    Feb 1, 2015 at 2:00 pm

    He was in Europe last week watching skiing, not practicing. I’m not sure anyone can say he looked at this week as any more than a tune-up with the Super Bowl afterwards. 18 months ago he was dominating the game. The year before that he looked lost too. He has the greatest short game in the history of golf. The chunks and skulls and yips are odd, but I am not betting against him to be back to form again sooner than later. Though I am enjoying watching his struggles…

    • Dennis clark

      Feb 1, 2015 at 2:07 pm

      Funny thing is he didn’t even stay for the bowl!!!

  32. Paul Muehlemeyer

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:55 pm

    I don’t think Tiger’s been the same since the blow up in ’08 and he’s older now and may never have the physical skills he once did. That coupled with the mental state he seems to be in makes for a very long road.

  33. Dennis Clark

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:47 pm

    Pls understand the comparison to me should read: EVEN I, a lowly club pro, have not struggled like that. Point being how can one so much better than i be in that much trouble? Also note to my readers: I’m a HUGE tiger fan. What he’s done for the game is nothing short of incredible. No one wants him to get back more than I.

  34. Jeffcb

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:22 pm

    Dennis – I agree completely. Tiger said in the interview that he’s getting used to ball position with regards to having a shallower angle of attack. Is it that difficult with a pitch? There’s gotta be just a ton of self doubt it seems. I would love too see him come back. Perhaps its too early to write him off. After all how long did it take Kaymer to complete his swing change? Faldo too for that matter. The again, it Kuchar 5 swings to feel what he should be doing. Time will tell I suppose.

    • Rich

      Feb 2, 2015 at 7:43 am

      Kaymer didn’t. He went back to hitting his cut like when he was world no.1 and he’s starting to put it together now that he’s got his confidence.

  35. ChrisK

    Feb 1, 2015 at 1:14 pm

    Good article, Dennis
    It’s absolutely asinine for Tiger to say his problems are because he’s ‘in between’ patterns. There’s no reason why his short game would have to be any different than it was when he was the best player in the galaxy. If indeed he was making changes, then he has had enough time to incorporate them enough to take them to the course. If not, don’t play in a tournament. If he keeps going to mechanical teachers, I think he will only get worse. Hope I’m wrong.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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