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What we talked about at Adams Golf

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I’ve gone through the comments on my previous stories, looking for topics that my readers seem to want covered. So far, I’ve focused on the nuts and bolts of the industry and stayed away from what might be considered more personal. But one comment kind of stuck with me.

What did we talk about while having a beer? This person wanted to know more about the day-to-day discussions of people in the industry.

Obviously, I can only respond from the Adams Golf viewpoint. The industry is very competitive and as such, we didn’t have industry functions where we got together and socialized. Many years ago, Golf Magazine would have an outing after the PGA Merchandise Show and invite its customers, which included equipment industry folks. I played in a couple, but we didn’t get together to discuss the industry.

At Adams, any conversation during a get-together had the same theme — how do we increase our sales so we can effectively compete with the big guys?

Let me put this in perspective. It’s post 2000, post IPO, we are the No. 1 hybrid on tour and competing daily against companies 5-to-15 times our annual volume  At our peak, we did a bit more than $100 million in annual sales and, while that may sound like a lot, it’s well short of the roughly $140 million you need to do all the necessary marketing stuff and turn a profit. You are managing cash flow.

What were we doing with the money? Huge salaries, big benefits, expensive marketing? I know it doesn’t mesh with what many outsiders believe about the golf equipment industry, but we were very conservative. Since it’s public record, you can confirm that my yearly salary never exceeded $200K. Some of our key people actually did better in areas where we had to pay to get the best folks, but we were very professional with our salary structure.

There’s a saying about marketing that goes like this:

“I know 50 cents of every dollar is a waste. I just don’t know which 50 cents.”  

We probably spent as much time in random discussions on this subject as anything. We would get a call saying Player X is available and we can get him for… well, more than any of us were making. Once the euphoria of being associated with a known name wears off, it’s the old question: Will the association pay off in sales?

There is no formula that applies to a company that has a tour staff of one or two players. The only thing that moves the needle is to have a large tour staff, and financially it wasn’t in the cards for Adams. It isn’t just the player; it’s how much of your advertising budget gets dedicated to promoting the relationship. Where else could the money go?

That conversation brings us around to “who are we” and “how do we capitalize on our image?” At Adams, we knew we wanted to appeal to the average golfer. Our designs were focused on making the game more enjoyable for what demographically is the largest constituency.

Now remember, in the example I’m giving, this is a bunch of us sitting around having a beer and giving opinions. There’s no formality, just ideas. When it came to the issue of helping the average player, there was one unavoidable step. You had to make excellent product that good players would use and do so knowing it would be a small percentage of total sales. Golf has a pyramid of influence, and if the better players aren’t complimentary of your products the selling effort increases significantly.

There’s an important thing to remember here. The golf equipment industry is a lot more like the fashion industry than many people are willing to admit. The actual differences between products are minor and often subjective. We don’t want to copy, but we are remiss if we don’t look at what seems to be popular and decide how to position ourselves.

Doing all of this — tour, marketing, product design — and you missed break even at $100 million in sales? 

Well, cut back!

Drop the Tour staff to one or two minor (read: cheaper) players, cut back on advertising, don’t spend money designing a driver that competes favorably with the best in the market, etc. This movie has been seen, and the company slides into oblivion during the denouement.

There are other “opportunities.” A golf ball manufacturer will make a top-quality ball under our name, a shirt company will do the same. This can be done with golf shoes and virtually anything that’s sold at golf retail. Look to history. Has any smaller company ever been successful adding non-equipment products? The answer is no. So we collectively decide that our focus is on-course and we will try and do the best we can knowing we don’t have the luxury of funding.

Then the sales guy says,”I was in one of the ____ stores the other day and our [very costly] displays were in the back and some had product from other companies.” (I’m assuming everything was done to correct this!)

This is a killer. You spend the advertising dollars, the tour dollars and the R&D money just to have your product displayed where it’s hard to find. There’s a simple reason why; the big guys pay for premium space and make sure it’s properly managed. We completed our budget just getting to the store — renting premium space doesn’t fit. We have to come up with an in-store sales strategy that allows us to compete.

Get the picture? We’re still drinking beer, having a good time and we’re all passionate. And it’s good that we are; we want to put the best product in consumer hands and do so in a way that allows us to compete going forward.

That’s what we talked about.

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

74 Comments

74 Comments

  1. Nat

    Feb 24, 2015 at 3:41 pm

    As always a great article, thank you. Like many have said, Adams made great stuff. I have just stopped using an F11 driver after using a 9015. Great great drivers. My son had the opportunity to caddie for Tom Watson’s group in a pro am last year and was shocked to see him using an F11. He said it was the best driver he’d ever used, ‘nothing better out there today’.

  2. golfandgamble

    Feb 23, 2015 at 5:16 pm

    Why the vitriol towards Mr. Adams? Between he and Wishon, their writing series’ have been outstanding and very insightful. I can’t figure out why people need to be so bashful on here, he doesn’t have to do this, but I’m thankful that he has.

  3. T-MAC

    Feb 23, 2015 at 2:13 pm

    Love the arm-chair quarterbacks here. Most of the ideas given on how Adams “should have” grown their brand are a joke. But, it makes for good reading.
    I used to be a big Titleist and Mizuno forged guy (after getting rid of my forged Wilson Staff Tour Blades back in the 1980’s). Then one day I went to a Adams Demo day at my Club and hit the forged CB1’s and CB2’s. Best irons I’ve EVER hit. I’ve since owned CB1’s, CB2’s, CB3’s and Pro a12’s. Love the dark finish on these so I stocked up on them since they are no longer available (you can still find some of these in stores today). I also bought a 3-wood as well as several hybrids, which I think are the best on the market. It pains me to see that TM now owns Adams. I guess they thought buying the company would be less expensive than going through a lawsuit over the slot technology? 😉

    Appreciate the inside information Barney. Best of luck to you in the future Sir.

  4. farmer

    Feb 15, 2015 at 1:05 pm

    Keith and West, you guys are awfully harsh having the benefit of hindsight and no demonstrable credentials. What Mr. Adams describes is a cautionary tale for the new Hogan brand.

  5. Barney Adams

    Feb 13, 2015 at 7:27 pm

    As for shipping one club; very slippery slope you are trying to develop relationships with retailers and this broaches direct selling. Larry; try me at [email protected]. As for the “Adams demise. ” never happened. The shareholders decided they could benefit from a sale. Happens every day. Johan Adams marketing comes from TM and has for the last couple of years.

    • Johan Klarin

      Feb 13, 2015 at 11:39 pm

      Barney, that explains a lot. TM’s marketing playbook can’t be applied to Adams. TM marketing: flood the world with pushy and loud messaging. Experiment (dolls anyone?) frequently, outspend the competition, and “buy” more pros to endorse your gear. Applying this marketing toolkit/thinking on a smaller scale to Adams will never succeed.
      For a recent example of how to do this better: Cadillac’s marketing guys, shared across GM and other Detroit-based manufacturers for decades, with predicable amounts of harmful groupthink, recently decided to move their top marketing guys to a new office in Manhattan, away from Detroit (both physically and intellectually).
      I would bet some Adidas stock that one of the most cost-effictive ways to help Adams over the next 1-3 years would be to follow the Cadillac (and others) playbook: create a separate marketing team for Adams, and place it physically far away from TM’s marketing. They can still collaborate, but it would make it much easier for Adams to create and tell a story that resonates enough in the marketplace that sales increase meaningfully. It has been done many times before, by many companies, in many industries.
      Thanks for your great commentary across the WRX pages.

      • Del Capslock

        Feb 16, 2015 at 10:26 pm

        Johan….what would you budget for that parallel sales force? Can you afford it?

      • Gorden

        Feb 21, 2015 at 2:32 am

        The only way they are going to keep the Adams line is if it sells….they can use Adams as a testing ground for ideas they are not sure of yet for their flagship TaylorMade clubs. As Adams golf proved haveing one great product (Tight Lies) is not enough to compete in the Golf Club game……..at a level we would call pro level equipment anyway….

  6. Larry111

    Feb 13, 2015 at 5:13 pm

    Barney,
    I have in my possession a prototype driver head designed by an iconic long driver who is deceased. It’s aerodynamic and slippery from any angle but it retains an old school look. It looks like it’s getting ready to take off and fly right off my desk. I may be looking at the next Big Bertha.

    Here’s the problem, I don’t trust the major manufactures especially Taylormade and Callaway so I don’t want to put it in their hands just yet. Could you suggest an ethical party that knows the ins and outs of the business who I could send it to for an evaluation and maybe establish a game plan? Send me a pm here at GolfWRX if you have any suggestions.

  7. Andy W

    Feb 13, 2015 at 4:32 pm

    What’s up with older comments? I click on it and it just scrolls up to the top of the page…

  8. Johnnie McFarland

    Feb 13, 2015 at 1:34 pm

    Jonny B described me to a “tee.” I am an old man by my own self-description (58) and a “hacker” for lack of a better term of a casual weekender whose goal is to break 100 consistently. But statistically, am I not the median or average golfer? What percentage of golfers do I fit in? Am I in the majority of golfers out there? I just bought a set of Adams V3 irons because from Adams’ marketing and price point, these clubs fit my game. Would me buying a set of higher-priced, bigger name-brand clubs really improve my game? I doubt it. And I realize that with more time and a greater effort, I can and should improve. The question for me is will my ability synchronize with the potential of my equipment? I formerly played with bargain basement, no name equipment and got teased unmercifully until I asked this question, if a tour player and I exchanged equipment, would my game improve by quantum leaps and bounds and would the tour pro fall into a wormhole? Marketing without question is the key. The thought of purchasing the same equipment top 10 tour pros use might possibly increase my confidence which in turn might possibly improve my game. But would my game improve measurably? And is that improvement more mental (which is extremely important) versus physical? Do I buy clubs because my favorite player uses this brand or do I buy clubs based on my ability and budget. I choose the latter and Adams has been a good choice for me. I took pride in occasionally beating my competition with “no name brand” equipment and I hope to play better with Adams.

    • Justin

      Feb 20, 2015 at 6:18 pm

      It really doesn’t matter. You play and buy what YOU want, what you can afford. The biggest deal is if you’re properly fitted for your sticks.

      Even if it’s a low-end aluminum-faced (or “titanium matrix”) driver and zinc irons and wedges that you got as a full set from Wal-Mart, if you’re chasing after the little white ball you are golfing. Are you “optimized”? Most likely, no… but who really is? Tiger Woods is undoubtedly “optimized” for his equipment, but even he has his days when he has to rely on his B, C, or even D game. That’s golf.

      Ever see one of those guys on a rec softball league with all the fancy gear? How many actually “play up” to the equipment? They’re buying it to make themselves feel better about their game (admirable, as it’s their money to spend as they see fit), but it doesn’t help when they go 0-4 at the plate, or drop that routine fly ball.

      Buy what makes YOU happy, and ignore everyone else.

  9. Johan Klarin

    Feb 13, 2015 at 10:06 am

    You are describing a branding issue perfectly: in commoditized markets (small variances in product, competitive industry, low margins) if you can’t compete with money, only way to win is to “tell a better story” that resonates. Easy to say, incredibly hard to do. Especially in a company where R&D / engineering and product is historically seen as the core. Nope, this is a marketing gig. Look at SCOR wedges for example – BY FAR the highest satisfaction rates, backed up by robot testing. Meanwhile, most amateurs think Bob Vokey oversaw the production of their SM5 wedge, and thus continue to perpetuate a very effective marketing myth. Vokeys win, not by product excellence, but by superior – and consistent – storytelling. And yes, they do ads – but the ads support the story – they aren’t the story.
    The answer is to hire (internally and agency) the best marketing brains – including several from outside the industry. Adams has plenty of engineering and product excellence, and it doesn’t have to flood the golf channel with ads to do much better.
    I could be totally wrong about Adams marketing as I’m an outsider, but as a start, I’d take a look at the organization’s top marketing talent.
    Currently gaming two 9031 hybrids. Nothing better anywhere.

  10. Jonny B

    Feb 13, 2015 at 8:19 am

    My two cents as a consumer – Adams demise (or failure to achieve desired market share) can be partially attributed to their brand image. The brand image is that these are “old man” clubs, or “hackers” clubs. Cleveland is struggling with the same right now, and as such their equipment sales are plummeting. This brand image may or may not be the fault of Adams, I’m sure they didn’t set out to make old man and amateur clubs, but that is the market who bought them.

    Another problem is that superior equipment is such a finicky term and goal – so much is subjective when it comes to that stuff. If I go to the range and demo 5 similar iron sets or drivers today – the difference in playability and results is minimal – MINIMAL. So you may say your goal is to produce better equipment, but what is that “better” based upon… better materials, better results, better adjustability, etc? And it isn’t better unless the market knows it’s better, and that takes $$$$ to educate consumers, get clubs in their hands, get premium retail space. The public doesn’t know what they want – you have to tell them. And in the golf industry, you tell them with $$$ and tour players gaming your gear. Adams failed to do this, and so we see they have gone by the wayside.

  11. DMR

    Feb 13, 2015 at 7:15 am

    Mr. Adams,
    Thank you for taking the time to talk about your experience at adams golf. Although some of the comments I see here lack civility, I am sure most people appreciate your insight. I am curious, in the 70’s and 80’s, the equipment industry did a complete turnover. Wilson, MacGregor, Dunlop, Ram, Hogan…a bunch of companies that had experienced success, seemed to disappear over time, and new companies took their place…Callaway, Taylormade, Ping…even Adams. In your view, how did this occur, and is there a chance, it could occur again?

    Thank you….and by the way…I have a couple adams hybrids in my bag that date back a few years. Still have not found a hybrid I like better…

    • Mike

      Feb 14, 2015 at 1:03 am

      That is a great question. I’m very interested in mr Adams take on this.

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 14, 2015 at 9:23 pm

      In a word the demise of those Companies; Callaway. They introduced an era of strong marketing and innovative product. You either learned to compete or you got run over.
      I think it’s happening now. The USGA has essentially stifled real innovation so we have a four horse marketing game. TM, Callaway, Ping and Titleist albeit really a ball company.

  12. Chuck

    Feb 13, 2015 at 5:19 am

    I’m curious what Barney can say about Tom Watson; obviously a consummate player and professional, Watson’s marketing worth is something that a number of companies (Ralph Lauren Polo, for one) seem to like. And yet Tom Watson appears to have resolutely stayed away from contracts with the major club manufacturers (Titleist, Taylormade, Callaway, Mizuno, Wilson.) Barney can you say anything about the Tom Watson/Adams golf linkage?

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 14, 2015 at 9:25 pm

      It was one of the great experiences. Whatever we said a club would do Tom had to prove it via his ball flight. Couldn’t have had a better partner.

  13. Gorden

    Feb 12, 2015 at 9:19 pm

    Barney what do you think of Wilson slowly gaining some more market share…it has been a long time since Wilson Had a female President that dropped John Daly and killed any Driver sales they would have for years.

  14. Andy W

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:46 pm

    Sales in the range of “$140 million…. necessary for marketing stuff and turn a profit” is enlightening. Man, it all adds up being in all the golf mags, TV time, pay for play Pros, ect., all to establish presence and motivation for golfers to buy. Have to think TMAG spent $10 million just on the PGA Show the last three years….

  15. tom

    Feb 12, 2015 at 5:07 pm

    it’s all time and place. barney did what he did at the time he did it. his company grew to its apex and could not have grown anymore. you have to consider what he was up against. callaway, titleist, taylormade, ping, et al. those companies were doing all they could against each other and there’s only so much you can do to win the limited amount of golfers there are in the world. $100MM in rev is all he could have done – end of story. if he had started when titleist, ping, taylormade did, and have the “hits” those companies did, he could have been in a different place altogether. if taylormade didn’t have that HUGE hit with the metalwood, they’d be an adams. if ping didn’t have those ground breaking upright lie irons, etc., it’d be a different story. adams didn’t really do much of anything except popularize a utility club. they rode that fad as long and hard as they could, and the other vendors provided a similar product that golfers were content buying to fit their bag profile. look, microsoft was a time and place business. apple, time and place. google, time and place. adams did what they could, and that’s it – end of story. adams is a remarkable story, but callaway, titleist, taylormade, ping, cleveland, cobra, mizuno, nike, bridgestone, are more remarkable.

    • Andy W

      Feb 13, 2015 at 7:37 am

      Yep, one club (tightlies) was the catalyst, yet clones were everywhere and few Pros saw a need to pull the 2-iron. What if Adams had offered a putter that was a USGA conforming “Surveying Instrument” with an Operating System that guaranteed a perfect Greenread 100% of the time? What if Adams with this putter offered free support just like Microsoft does on their Operating Systems. What if for 17 years nobody could compete with this Adams SI putter like Apple does with Microsoft? What if Pros deemed this putter essential equipment in the bag? With something like that, $100M is not the limit.

      • tom

        Feb 13, 2015 at 9:12 am

        Yup, Andy W, my fine apprentice, you have been correctly influenced by my assertion. had adams come out with something truly revolutionary (e.g. the taylormade metalwood is the great golf equip example) that everyone ‘had to have’, they’d have created the channel “pull thru” required to catapult them to the uber manufacturer status of callaway, ping, taylormade, titleist, et al. however, the “hybrid” club as the “adams revolution” gave them only $100MM rev pull thru at their peak and they were relegated an alsoran at retail. so they had “push thru” going for them and that’s why their retail displays sat unopened in the back receiving area of retail stores. for those channel sales neophytes out there – pull thru occurs because demand for your product is so strong, people come into stores already knowing what they want and literally pull the product off of store shelves. push thru occurs when a product or company has not produced anything hot enough to generate demand and as result you rely on gimmicks (sales spiffs, training, incentives, sexy retail displays, buying end-caps, ads, etc) and hope that you these things will push products thru the channel.

        Barney needed to realize that in order to grow his business he had to focus very heavily on a push strategy. you can see in his article that he did NOT focus on this as much as he needed. In fact, he says “(I’m assuming everything was done to correct this!)” when he heard a sales guy talking about their retail displays sitting around in back. if it were my business, i’d have fired the guy! if you’re going to “assume” your sales org is doing what it needed so consumers are, then you’re out of touch and you’re not going to grow. you have to be a push marketing sherpa. your organization has got to know precisely at every level what it needs to do – that starts at the top. if consumers don’t know your product, or if consumers simply aren’t actively looking for your product you have to push your product. if your product isn’t known, then nobody will be looking for it. you can’t assume your retail sales org is doing its job. you have to know they are.

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 15, 2015 at 7:08 pm

      Tom, I found myself agreeing until the end and your choice of ” more remarkable” companies. Based on industry data Adams had a greater market share than Cleveland, Mizuno, Nike, Bridgestone or Cobra and all of those companies were owned by a corporate giant and it’s support systems. ( or in Nike and Bridgestone’s cases were a division of a corporate giant) Take Titleist’s ball business away and they too fall off the radar. Just FYI. Makes no difference it’s all history now.

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 15, 2015 at 7:17 pm

      Tom ; your conclusion. Adams had greater market share than any of the ” successes” you mentioned starting with Cleveland and they all were either owned by large companies or were large companies. We would have continued to increase but it was an annual street fight. As I’ve said before it’s a fashion/ marketing business. The USGA does not want nor will allow distance improving innovation or anything they feel makes the game easier.

  16. Kenner

    Feb 12, 2015 at 8:35 am

    “Necessary marketing stuff…”
    I don’t need to see Ernie every other commercial telling me he has two in the bag.
    Or Kenny Perry saying that its out of here.

  17. west

    Feb 12, 2015 at 1:20 am

    And am definitely appreciative of Barney, because I will have learned from his mistakes.

  18. Shawn K

    Feb 11, 2015 at 11:16 pm

    Sounds like many other businesses. You have to hope quality of product will sell it and your are making money at or it doesn’t work. It is tough to compete with the big boys in any industry toe to toe in marketing, no matter how creative you get. It still costs a lot to market products these days.
    If you can’t compete you need to get out or sell. Pretty simple IMO. Sounds like Barney sold and has kept the brand alive. BTW I just picked up an XTD Driver (Demo sell off of course for half of retail. I think that was a whole other discussion.)
    Thanks for the article Barney.

  19. Brian

    Feb 11, 2015 at 9:12 pm

    I gamed Adams equipment for >10 years. It was flat out good stuff. There’s nothing better than a small company that makes better products than the big guys. And I owned the stock too. Adams Golf was a good, innovative company.

    I find these articles to be very interesting reading.

    Barney, just ignore the armchair CEOs and 300 yard hitters and keep it coming.

  20. Ryan rymail00

    Feb 11, 2015 at 8:55 pm

    Mr. Adams,

    Once again I enjoy reading your articles, and giving us an insight 99% of the golfing world will never see. Once again the haters come out of the wood works.

    Keep posting!
    Ryan aka rymail00

  21. Tom Duckworth

    Feb 11, 2015 at 8:09 pm

    Barney I just want to say you made some of the best and most honest equipment during your run. I enjoy your articles and I’m sorry you have to take pot shots from a bunch of wannabe a**holes.

  22. Barney Adams

    Feb 11, 2015 at 6:54 pm

    Wow some readers either having very bad days or just down on Adams. What I provided was an honest assessment of our internal conversations and being self ( or company) critical properly done was healthy not complaining.
    Always room for improvement but I have to mention one thing; we started in 1987. Since then please name me one equipment company that has started and reached 100m in sales etc….

    • Jerry

      Feb 11, 2015 at 8:15 pm

      Don’t worry about it. There’s always 1-2 percent who are haters or jealous because you’ve done what they have dreamed about doing and are working in an industry they can only keep as a hobby. Keep it coming bud.

  23. MT

    Feb 11, 2015 at 6:32 pm

    Adams should really think about making their overall brand look more cool. At this moment they look old that is against them making all those innovations. And I am speaking not influenced by some other brands such as TM that simply looks cheasy and cheep though delivering some great woods.

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 11, 2015 at 6:45 pm

      Mr Adams is as they say long gone from the game.

    • gunmetal

      Feb 11, 2015 at 6:47 pm

      There stuff right before and after TM bought them looked “cool”. Problem is Adams isn’t Adams anymore. Taylormade is either calling all of the shots or at least has them on a very short leash. Very sad.

  24. Regis

    Feb 11, 2015 at 4:50 pm

    Can’t fathom the degree of vitriol here, but I guess that’s the blog environment. I enjoy the articles Barney.Thanks

  25. Matt Johnson

    Feb 11, 2015 at 3:11 pm

    Barney, thanks for taking the time to write and post this blog. I think you know that a lot of folks find it insightful. Please assume there is a silent majority of readers who enjoy your posts. Unfortunately there is also an outspoken majority of ignorant reprobates. What did Teddy Roosevelt have to say about those that actually enter the arena? “It is not the critic that counts…”

  26. Tom Wishon

    Feb 11, 2015 at 2:45 pm

    Barney
    Just curious since you are sharing info from your days – what was your total company payroll as a percentage of annual sales, same question for marketing expenses. And on a different topic related to your article, did your company use “secret shoppers” who would visit the retail stores frequently/occasionally to ask for your company’s products to then see whether the retailers were supporting you well or doing a bait and switch? Just curious.

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 11, 2015 at 6:59 pm

      In reverse order we did have folks visit retail and report back. Not a staff but on occasion. Truthfully placement is the rep’s job and you have to trust them. As for marketing and payroll as a percentage we were high. Not because we were excessive but our volume was the factor. You played the cash flow game and worked to build volume.

  27. Mauricio

    Feb 11, 2015 at 2:24 pm

    I think people are missing the point. Adams puts out great clubs, but the time frame he is talking is before Google was making money in advertising online. A lot of water passed under that bridge. This is great inside information. What I am curious to know is how did Adams Golf got gobbled up by TM Adidas.

    • Keith

      Feb 11, 2015 at 4:32 pm

      Adams golf was founded in 1991…so your logic applies for about 9 years of the companies lifespan. There was still a good clip of time that they were still using 1991 logic in the way they approached the marketplace before being purchased. One of the first things that happened post acquisition…Adidas/TaylorMade fired the advertising agency in Dallas.

      It sounds like they focused their dollars in the wrong places…it is actually a great lesson for anyone starting a business in golf. There are a lot of companies that have had a rise after the fall Wilson (present day) and Mizuno (post 2009 when profit fell by double digits).

      I agree with the message though…this is a hard industry to be successful in, there are a lot of ways to mess it up.

  28. ck

    Feb 11, 2015 at 1:45 pm

    Which golf companies did you guys run? I missed that part.

  29. LY

    Feb 11, 2015 at 1:44 pm

    Barney:
    When you sign a PGA or LPGA player, does that player approach you to play your equipment or do you approach them? And when you do sign a player, how long on average is the contract they sign?

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 11, 2015 at 7:01 pm

      No precise formula. They all have agents and they are the contact. As for duration you certainly want at least 3-5 years and hopefully longer. It takes a couple of seasons before the public notices.

  30. Ty Webb

    Feb 11, 2015 at 1:38 pm

    I don’t get why he is on here. I can’t tell if he is being insightful or bitter.

    • gunmetal

      Feb 11, 2015 at 6:50 pm

      Yeah it blows my mind why we’d want a founder and CEO of a golf equipment contributing to the content of a website dedicated to golf equipment.

  31. golfiend

    Feb 11, 2015 at 1:10 pm

    There was a boon in the golf industry and for golf in general with Tiger Woods, with steel woods and titanium big head drivers, a new club called hybrids, game improvement irons, wedge grooves and grinds, mallet and other funky looking putters, graphite shafts, urethane cover and 3-piece balls, but it seems the innovation have now become purely marketing with the same products being dressed up differently every 2 years. I attribute this partly due to the imposed rules on equipment which companies have seemed to maxed out on.

  32. AJ Jensen

    Feb 11, 2015 at 11:29 am

    What keeps Adams going is their products, putting great clubs in their customers’ bags. It seems obvious enough, but how many other brands can actually claim the same thing? My Adams hybrids (I own four) and my Adams forged irons perform as well as anything I’ve ever borrowed or tried at a trade show. With other brands I get the feeling they’re overspending on sizzle while Adams consistently works on the steak. I see the grandiose product displays in golf stores and marvel at the irony, as customers walk past the Adams rack and reach for the big boys’ clubs, that the better value in the store was overlooked.

  33. ken

    Feb 11, 2015 at 11:19 am

    Advertising dollars must not be just spent. Those dollars must be spent in the correct places.
    That translates to good marketing and keeps the consumer price down.
    Having fewer PGA Tour players on staff also helps to maintain a reasonable price point.

  34. DOug H

    Feb 11, 2015 at 10:34 am

    Barney,

    I would have loved to been in those conversations I always tout the Adams Hybrids to my group. My favorite 3 wood to date for my steep swing has been the Adams Super LS 3 wood. I can’t tell you how many times I have had guys grab this club after hitting mine a few times.

    I like your insight and look forward to reading more articles.

    Doug

  35. Bart Mellinger

    Feb 11, 2015 at 10:30 am

    Is this why you got into Long Drive back in 2008 (because it was cheap)? And did long drive move the needle for you at all? I know you had some pretty good hitters on staff (Sadlowski, Mobley, etc) but I’m wondering if you felt it was worth it in the end.

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 11, 2015 at 7:10 pm

      Yes. We had to spend money giving our driver credentials knowing that the market sales would be minor. They helped us. Although I must say after watching a couple up close what they do to a golf ball is way off any grid.

  36. Keith

    Feb 11, 2015 at 10:23 am

    No offense Barney, but the reason why your advertising didn’t work is because you chose strategies like putting hitting bays in tiny airports and thinking it would move the needle and drive sales (waste of money)…you needed advanced analytics and a robust digital marketing strategy and Adam’s wouldn’t adapt to the change in the marketplace.

    You can measure ROI..saying $.50 wasted is such an old school mentality and couldn’t be further from the truth. When your competition is outspending you 10:1 there are ways to be scrappy and carve out your own share of the pie.

    That ‘very costly’ display money could have been spent on driving awareness and consideration of your product which I would guess hovered around the 25%-35% range…rather than having someone stumble upon your product in store you could of had them seek it out. If consumers want something they go get it…it’s not a code that needs to be cracked.

    And so goes the battle between “marketing” and “sales”

    • west

      Feb 11, 2015 at 11:03 am

      Have to agree with Keith. I know I’v been hard on Barney’s previous posts, and will continue to do so because his approach/perspective fail to demonstrate the ability to adapt and be innovative. Sorry Barney, but the cold hard truth is better that fluffy while lies to make you feel better.

      If you couldn’t get proper brand space in the retail stores–build your own Adams retail chain. Include clothing, shoes, and balls. These other products would have been things you could compete on.

      Having troubles getting marketing or tour presence? Ever heard of Google Ad Words? Screw tour players and retail big box. Appeal to customers online. And with the economy being what it has been since 2009, a product that appeals to customer’s wallets surely should have beat out all the overpriced competitors…Why didn’t that happen? If anything the economic recession should have been an opportunity in disguise for Adams…A resurgence if anything.

      All I hear from you Barney is that Adams was doomed to fail from the beginning because you didn’t have the money or market share…worst excuse in the book. No one is going to give that to you, you have to go out and make it by adding value to your product. Which you never did.

      • Barney Adams

        Feb 11, 2015 at 7:05 pm

        Build our own retail chain ! That’s it the one sure thing we never discussed!

        • west

          Feb 12, 2015 at 1:31 am

          Why Not?!? Put them in outlet malls initally. Surely with the additional merchandise, i.e. clothes, shoes, balls, bags, etc. you will be able to diversify, compete, and expand. I bet the margins are better too in these product types vs. clubs/equipment?

          • Del Capslock

            Feb 17, 2015 at 10:33 am

            YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS?!?!

            How many mall based stores do you propose opening? And how much will it cost to get each one open? Ongoing costs & sales per store?

        • west

          Feb 12, 2015 at 1:36 am

          BTW I actually like the Adams branding waaaaaaaay more than the equipment for what it’s worth.

    • Rob

      Feb 11, 2015 at 11:15 am

      How much is Barney Adams worth….but yeah I’m sure he is taking your advice!?

      • Keith

        Feb 11, 2015 at 11:20 am

        Hey Rob,

        People like Barney Adam’s pay guys like me to make these decisions for them…so in fact he/they already do take my advice. But thank you for adding to the conversation.

        • Rob

          Feb 11, 2015 at 1:24 pm

          “Guys like me…” So NOT you. He has done a fair amount for the golf industry, tough to compete with companies that have the ability to say yeah I like your idea and buy it out. But I bet you could have really saved him with your great advice!

        • Barney Adams

          Feb 11, 2015 at 7:07 pm

          Keith. We had guys like you.

          • Keith

            Feb 11, 2015 at 8:52 pm

            When tasked with these hard decisions…did you listen to the marketing team or the sales team? Based on your comments in the article I have an idea…but would be interested as these conversations can be very interesting.

            One guy brings theoretical volume to your business and the other has tangible numbers…I would be interested to get your point of view.

            • Barney Adams

              Feb 11, 2015 at 9:16 pm

              Of course you listen to the Marketing and Sales team. Sometimes when things were a toss-up we made regional decisions and tracked results. We definitely trended towards marketing. Sales guys get pretty united. Lower prices, more money for spiffs, market leading products good weather etc……

      • west

        Feb 11, 2015 at 12:04 pm

        It’s too late for Barney to take anyone’s advice…Rob.

        BTW I’d rather have a thriving business with sustainability and little personal net worth, than a failed track record, money in the bank, and nothing better to do than write articles on an industry forum about why things were so hard me for back in the day.

        • Greg

          Feb 12, 2015 at 12:38 am

          West- Care to toss around any more compliments without putting your track record on the line for everyone online cowboy to snipe at? Mr. Adams seems to have done something- you?

          • west

            Feb 12, 2015 at 1:19 am

            I’m just getting started…

            • Greg

              Feb 12, 2015 at 9:38 am

              Your done. You will keep talking– all the while questioning others decision without exposing your own is the ultimate form of cowardice.

              You are just another impotent internet cowboy denigrating someones work, (care to put yours on display?) Your pollution of this a discussion is more than worn out.

              Good bye

          • west

            Feb 12, 2015 at 1:22 am

            And am appreciative of people like Barney, because I will have learned from their mistakes.

    • Barney Adams

      Feb 17, 2015 at 6:19 pm

      Re hitting bays in tiny airports. TM is one of the most successful marketers in the industry. They have many bodies including experts on analytics. Suggest you contact them and ask them about the concept involving that program.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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