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A True Story About Putters (Part 2)

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In my previous article, I told the true story of when I encountered a “genius IQ” and his putter design. In our conversation, I pointed out a major flaw, whereupon he decided that the flaw was me and our relationship was short lived.

Let’s change the outcome for the purposes of looking at putters as a product. For my standard fee of a dozen golf balls, I’ve agreed to offer advice to help this inventor and his backers. Starting with the putter itself, our final head design ended as technically perfect as modern science could produce. And let me be clear here, I’m NOT going into detail about the putter — that really isn’t the point of the story.

I could describe the optimal dwell time on the face supplied by grooved inserts, the inertial factors as described by weight distribution, available lofts, custom fitting options, a variety of grips — the best of the best — and test data to show why. Someone will probably comment that I didn’t include X, and my answer is, “Yes we did.” I repeat, it’s the perfectly designed putter.

I want to emphasize what I’ve written. There are dozens if not hundreds of putter designers who honestly believe they have a better product. I’m saying, “Fine, I agree.” We are starting this with the best.

The term “the best” is a very narrow window. There are putters used on Tour that are more than 20 years old (more than 70 years old if you count the Bulls Eye). Are they technically inferior? Let’s match the confidence someone has using his 20-year-old putter under pressure versus something ultra modern that doesn’t deliver the same reassurance. I’m not anti-technology. I’m pointing out that the final environment is both inconsistent (because of the green surfaces) and highly psychological. Since we’re dealing with humans, it’s unavoidable.

Now what? My genius friend and his backers are not dreamers. They desire a commercial success. That means one thing, get the putter used on Tour. It’s very simple in the mind of the consumer. If the folks making a living use it then there must be value, and if not it’s just another putter.

There is a Plan B: Millions of dollars spent on advertising in an attempt to convince consumers that the putter is superior regardless of Tour usage. The track record for this approach would have to be upgraded to unsuccessful. Taking my advice, it’s a non-strategy.

So it’s the Tour. How do we start? Tour players on a putting green are in their office and as such do not care to be interrupted. That said, there is a Tuesday window for experimentation, but access is the challenge. We are non-entities wandering around with putters — no credentials, thus no access. If we knew who, we could look for a tour rep and find one who would give us reasonable access, so let’s assume that is the case.

This rep has the job of convincing Tour players to try the putter while telling them about its superior technical merits. This is very difficult. There are several independent putter reps all with the same objective, and the companies that make the brands the players use have reps out there making sure they don’t switch. With putters, the players are interested in the look at address, feel and how the ball rolls. The overwhelming majority could care less about the technical story involving the design. They are the ultimate lab and if they say the putter looks funny or feels bad, it’s branded. Game over!

But we are on a roll (sorry couldn’t help myself), our rep gets the putter in the hands of a couple of guys who have been struggling on the greens and they use it in the Wednesday Pro-Am. Let’s say they make a couple of bombs, don’t miss any short ones and the putter goes in their bag.

Isn’t this exactly what we wanted? The answer is partially. You see, getting the putter on Tour isn’t enough. It’s Step 1, but success means several players using our putter and the reason is television. One or two players have low odds of TV time, but several means we have a chance.

In our perfect scenario, these two guys have to putt so well that other players notice and pretty soon we have a dozen, maybe even 20 even players using our putter, and our phone is ringing with their agents asking about playing contracts. Now we have arrived!

Not exactly.

The design of the putter must be such that when used on TV it is so unique that viewers instantly recognize it in their favorite golf store. Want a perfect example? Odyssey putters were not only uniquely identifiable, but told a visual story, alignment. Their overwhelming success completely disrupted the putter market.

My genius friend has a unique design, but it’s not visual enough to jump off the TV screens. This is a critical juncture. The product is good, it has some tour success now the consumer must be “educated.” Two words, BIG Money. And remember that it takes at least two or three years for the message to fully penetrate the minds (and wallets) of the consumer.

At this juncture, I’d advise my friend and his backers not to jump into the putter business, but approach the big companies and shoot for a royalty deal.

The “big guys” have seen this movie, and they are busy dissecting the design and patent to see where they could compete if they choose. They have staffs of engineers to assign to the project and not just the design in hand, but a succession of variations. They want to make money and will make a deal; you have to be able to define what is acceptable.

This exact scenario is the major reason why nearly all independent putter companies that have tried to compete directly with the major equipment companies have gone broke or sold for a value less than the original investment.

I would strongly advise the genius and his group to have an excellent website, tell of the Tour success (and be prepared to pay tour contracts for continued usage) and try and build a consumer groundswell. In the world of introducing a new putter that’s a win, and the big guys are aware.

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

33 Comments

33 Comments

  1. Walter Pendleton

    Jun 24, 2015 at 1:33 pm

    Mr. Adams…you made an excellent point in this article when you said, Odessey CHANGED THE WORLD when they acknowledged alignment was the cornerstone of putting. You are so right Mr. Adams! However, I would like to add or comment that the USGA & R&A restrictions on “putter design” have stifled putting improvement by the average golfer and secondly has been counter productive to growing the game. Bear with me please as I defend my position on the subject. Image for a minute there were no restrictions on putter design, the average player’s handicap fell by 10 strokes and PGA players could score 58 or 59 regularly on tour? Wouldn’t more people enjoy the game, play more golf and buy more putters? I’m almost through…if the objective is to preserve the game, as it was founded some 500 years ago, then lets bring back the 12 original rules of golf and through away the dogma or bible called “The Rules of Golf.” My point is, we ALL know putting is 43% of every shot hit by the average player! If we don’t make putting more fun and golf easier, we risk the game of golf becoming a driving range sport due to its cost, like Japan, here in the United States. No one wants golf to return to its elitist status as a sport. That’s the elephant in the room no one wants to print or talk about in today’s world of golf. In fact, we all know its heading in that direction today! In closing I’ll just say, “Change is the only absolute in this world we know is going to happen…why not look at easing up on the poor golfer that three putts every fourth hole and never makes a fifteen footer! Good design, is just good business!

  2. Regis

    Feb 4, 2015 at 1:20 pm

    So true Barney. Best putter story ever of course is the Nicklaus Response putter. He used it on somewhat of a lark to win the 1986 Masters. Had a very unique look given the time period involved. MacGregor had forecasted selling 6,000 units total But, Nicklaus’ victory was enough to turn a company forecast of 6,000 putters into sales of 350,000 units by the end of the 1987. In fact, the company received 5,000 orders before noon the day after the Masters. ,

  3. Waqar

    Jan 26, 2015 at 9:53 am

    The picture above is the Borcerri Golf putter. It has the deepest face of any putter, as high as agolf ball.

    I got impact tape and put on the face of my Scottie and putted for 10 mins. To my surprise I noticed that I was stroking my putts in the center but high on the face, at times at the top edge. I putt with ball in the middle of my stance because it helps me with alignment and I tend to pull if I move forward and push if it move it back. The sweet spot is in the middle of the putter face vertically and horizontally. For me to strike the ball in the middle of the face vertically I have to move the ball at least two balls forward and this will result in pulls.

    I was an accomplished snooker and pool player. I tend to look at putting as a queue striking a ball. In pool to put topspin one needs to strike the ball above the equator or the queue tip has to be above the the butt end, which it not possible to do. With almost all putters made today one has to strike the ball just below the equator with positive loft and on the sweet spot. The amount of top spin also significantly depends on the softness of the ball cover, friction available on the putter face, and softness of putter face.

    For the few gifted individuals, and professionals who spend hours upon hours grooving in a stroke to achieve to stroke the ball on the putter’s sweet spot with positive loft at or just below the equator with the putter face square to the intended line, 90% of the putters are simply not suitable.

    Another thing that perplexes me is, is forward role really that important. I feel excessive top role causes distance control issues and lessens the break a players sees. On fast downhill putts it can cause serious anxiety.

    No matter with what kind of spin the ball leaves the putter face it will always role eventually. In my opinion the ball must leave the putter face with pure forward momentum with no spin at all. In fact for short putts back spin should be more desirable but it is not probably practical.

    I feel the genius is a really a genius is on to something.

  4. Steve zastrow

    Jan 19, 2015 at 9:02 pm

    Barney..I want one..If it’s that superior tell me about it And I will get Byron to make it…

  5. Ignorant savage

    Jan 17, 2015 at 9:06 pm

    Does this mean the “Shark Tank” investment might be in trouble? 😉

    Barney,

    Have really liked your articles and insights but agree with some here. The reason I like your stuff is because it offers a “new” and unseen glimpse through a keyhole into your world. In this case, almost anyone could have written these two pieces and the keyhole was an entire door that most of us had already been opened in one form or another.

    Let’s see/hear the stuff you tell your favorite “in-law” after you’ve snuck out of Thanksgivung dinner cleanup and are enjoying bourbon and cigars on the back deck….

    • Barney Adams

      Jan 18, 2015 at 10:44 pm

      From my emails a lot of readers have invested time and money in product ideas and I feel an obligation to explain the reality of the business. I understand your comment but in my experience the conversations were about the business. We harbor end some jealousy towards the companies owned by ” big brother” but that’s about as far as things went.

  6. Matthew Bacon

    Jan 16, 2015 at 4:55 pm

    Let me tell you about the time I met Tiger Woods. Ok, I’m not going to tell you that but here is an interesting story how I once shaved a dog

  7. Preston

    Jan 15, 2015 at 2:40 pm

    I was hoping for a Paul Harvey like story….

  8. Mr Free Golf

    Jan 15, 2015 at 9:58 am

    Having been a rep on tour for a major independent putter brand for over ten years, I’ll tell you your scenarios are spot on. Eventually, the brand went into bankruptcy, was purchased for next to nothing, and now the patent is expired with no hopes of being picked up. The putter industry as well as the golf industry has gotten to the point where contracts are made with players including putters. There’s only about 8% of the players, on a weekly basis, that I had a shot at. And, they were bottom feeders. The likelihood of gaining any kind of traction became impossible. Therefore, bankruptcy and an endangered species. For anyone hoping to gain a foothold in this exclusive society, create a website, sell a few out of your garage and at smaller trade shows and sleep well at night.

  9. Andy W

    Jan 15, 2015 at 8:13 am

    Whoa, am saying I concur & APPRECIATE every word written in your articles. Just pointing out that Pinehurst’s Payne Stewart statue has a Seemore putter, Zack Johnson uses a Seemore to this day, and as far as I know, neither got paid to use that putter. So to me, Seemore has had some “divine timing” as they seem to be flourishing. But as always, I could be wrong. But there was absolutely ZERO trashing on my part.

  10. Golf

    Jan 15, 2015 at 7:11 am

    Barney, I agree with you 100%. I don’t understand why such extreme bashing and hate attitudes? I see this sort of thing on most articles pertaining to golf anymore. I’ve gotten to where I take a quick look at the comments and if it’s just a bunch of trash, I just simply stop reading the comments. And, please don’t stop writing your articles. I enjoy reading them and learning from people like you that are very knowledgeable about golf equipment and the industry.

  11. katbird

    Jan 15, 2015 at 4:23 am

    Putters:
    Some like ’em hot off the face
    Some like ’em soft
    Some like ’em loud
    Some like ’em muted
    Some like ’em long
    Some like ’em short
    Some like ’em chiseled, like blades
    Some like ’em crescent shaped half moon
    Some like ’em high MOI
    Some like ’em low MOI
    Some like ’em aligned with a line towards the hole
    Some like ’em designed perpendicular to the target line

    Some like fat grips
    Some like thin grips
    Some like softies…some don’t

    …and some just can’t decide….
    and like them all at one time or another….

  12. RG

    Jan 14, 2015 at 11:23 pm

    One of the first things I learned on the way to my degree in Psychology is that half the population has an IQ of 100 or less. Conversely the vast majority of golfers struggle to break 100. The problem with both of these specimens is that they are entitled to opinions.
    Thank you for your contributions Barney. Your articles provide insight into the industry that most of us would never know, and your club designs made some of the most dynamic sticks I’ve ever hit.

  13. Sean

    Jan 14, 2015 at 9:45 pm

    Nice article Barney. It definitely explains the challenges one most be able to overcome and which hurdles are the important ones, and in what order they should be prioritized. Each business has it’s element of success and failure’s based upon unique demand factor’s. I believe golf to probably be the most difficult to break into as a startup.

  14. Slim

    Jan 14, 2015 at 8:06 pm

    The story/article would have been more interesting if he named names …

  15. Wendell

    Jan 14, 2015 at 3:10 pm

    How successful was Adams putting line? exactly… just sayin

  16. Ted

    Jan 14, 2015 at 2:40 pm

    Article was to long didn’t read it. I’ll tell you a true story about putting. I got drunk last night and tried to use my pelz putting tutor and got frustrated then went to bed

  17. Johnny

    Jan 14, 2015 at 12:26 pm

    I really don’t know what it is I’m supposed to get from this story. But then again no one has ever confused me with the guy in the first article with the genius IQ.

  18. Jeffrey Trigger

    Jan 14, 2015 at 12:22 pm

    only* increase the price tag

  19. Jeffrey Trigger

    Jan 14, 2015 at 12:22 pm

    I think Charlie is spot on. These gimmicks and bells and whistles on increase the price tag. I have yet to see anybody make a better crafted putter than a Ping, and a lot of good Ping putters are a third of the cost of a Betti or Cameron. If you find a putter that feels good in your hand, all the technology in the world isn’t going to be confidence on the green.

    • Jeffrey Trigger

      Jan 14, 2015 at 12:23 pm

      isn’t going to beat* confidence. Wow I should drink some coffee.

  20. Cynic123

    Jan 14, 2015 at 11:35 am

    I guess Mr. Adams has not heard of Bobby Grace

  21. Scott

    Jan 14, 2015 at 10:46 am

    I thought that we were going to get a follow up on the mad genius high IQ putter person. I thought that we were going to get – to steal a line from Paul Harvey – “the rest of the story”. A bit of a let down.

    • bradford

      Jan 14, 2015 at 11:38 am

      I have to agree, I had my hopes up from episode one…this didn’t add anything. We all already know that tour rep is the only way to sell.

    • DeeDub

      Jan 14, 2015 at 12:08 pm

      I agree. The first part had me hooked on what seemed to be based on facts. The second part was a made-up story. Waste of time reading this.

    • Barney Adams

      Jan 16, 2015 at 12:09 am

      The “mad genius” ended very badly and I chose to skip that and talk about the industry. As for Bobby Grace and Seemor I’m very familiar with both including their respective market share

      • tony

        Jan 18, 2015 at 2:26 am

        She would’ve probably preferred you spoken of her in the female tense.

  22. Andy W

    Jan 14, 2015 at 9:02 am

    My wife has always been about “divine timing” plays a huge part in all of life’s projects. Thanks Barney for this incredible insight; and be prepared to “Pay to Play” has always been in my mind. Seems there is always an exception, and Seemore seems to be it in the PtoP world.

  23. Shanks for Nothing

    Jan 14, 2015 at 8:49 am

    Make pay for play illegal. Then we’ll see this pseudo technology that is really marketing slowly be killed off. Only real R&D can survive when pros aren’t making choices based on contract size.

  24. Charlie

    Jan 14, 2015 at 8:32 am

    Actually, I could care less about the technical story involving the design, because I do care about it.

    Ok, really, I got nothing. It really is about branding. Betti, Cameron, etc… There is no way I am paying that money when I could get a $75 Cleveland that was manufactured just as well.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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