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Grading Fox Sports’ golf debut

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Inherently, tournament golf is a sport better viewed from a television screen. When you’re a spectator at a live golf event, you’re there to see the course, the players, the shots and take in the experience of world class golf — you’re not there to see winners and losers. It’s the only sport where you could attend the event, watch live action all day and really have no idea who’s winning the tournament or what’s going on.

That’s because when you watch golf on TV, you can view multiple golfers playing different holes at opposite ends of the course with a leaderboard that’s never more than a commercial break away. In person, seeing all that action is physically impossible.

That’s why it’s especially important that golf television broadcasts are on point — without a proper production, it’s easy for the viewer to lose sight of what’s happening. A team of producers needs to be aware of various storylines, who’s in contention and the precise moment at which to reveal to the audience pivotal moments on the golf course.

Fast forward to this past Saturday, December 13, when Fox made its professional golf debut in broadcasting the Franklin Templeton Shootout from Naples, Fla. Let’s analyze the broadcast on (1) Initial Impressions (2) Commentary and (3) Appearance.

Initial Impressions

Buck (1)

I must say, initial impressions are a bit weak. The coverage starts with an overly cheesy montage of various Fox Sports personalities and golfers feigning surprise (“We have golf on Fox?!?”) about Fox now covering golf. This is immediately followed by their Fox Sports/Football theme — Ba da da da da DA! Oh no you didn’t, Fox! I need something else here. I mean, if you are you responsible for replacing arguably the greatest sports theme of all time — Yanni’s “In Celebration of Man” — you better be replacing it with iconic brilliance of your own. I was personally hoping they’d introduce a golf song.

Buck, to his credit, starts off the broadcast on a humble and cautious note; acknowledging the difficulty in furnishing a coherent golf broadcast while also setting the bar low out of the gate:

“Right now, we’re not worthy.  Someday maybe we will be.”

Hey, Joe, a few slipups are fine for the Shootout, but get your act together for the U.S. Open please? No one’s going to care that this is Fox’s maiden voyage into golf if Tiger and Rory are in contention at Chambers Bay in June.

Initial Impressions grade: B-

Commentary

Here, Fox has big shoes to fill. Dan Hicks and Johnny Miller have been mainstays for many golf tournaments throughout the years, especially the U.S. Open. Losing them for our national championship will be a sentimental blow to fans everywhere (myself included).

And Joe Buck, for whatever reason, certainly seems to have his legions of haters out there. I admit there is something not too likeable about his delivery, but I’ve always found him to be a very good play-by-play guy. He has a great voice and doesn’t over-complicate big moments with useless chatter. He’s done his homework with golf, and in his first few minutes is already light years ahead of other non-golf broadcasters, like, say, Chris Berman, who badgers his companions and the audience, with clueless, rambling comments. That being said, referring to Brad Faxon as “Fax” seems a bit forward.

Flop

The Shark steadily improved throughout the broadcast, showing his (stubborn) personality, which I mistook for blandness early in the broadcast. Norman is not scared to gleefully engage in on-air spats with the other golf personalities on the team — there was a playfully testy exchange between Norman and Faxon on the proper way to play a flop shot from a tight lie — and he subtly establishes himself as the alpha-male of the group throughout the day. Much will rest on Norman’s shoulders going forward, particularly in filling the sharp-tongued vacancy left by Johnny Miller.

The on-course guys — Steve Flesch, Scotty McCarron and Brad Faxon — are very knowledgeable. Having Faxon, one of the greatest putters to ever live, talk about green breaks and speeds is a downright pleasure to listen to. The trio already seems to have established a familiar rapport will each other, with some good-natured needling taking place throughout the broadcast.

There will be a learning curve, however, for the audience identifying the voices and personalities of these otherwise accomplished golf minds. They’re not only new, but it’s sometimes difficult to tell them apart. They don’t have the distinct sounds or viewpoints like you’d hear from David Feherty, Gary McCord, Roger Maltbie, Paul Azinger and, of course, Johnny Miller. David Fay lurks quietly in the background in the event of any rules questions. At times, the collective delivery from the entire group is a bit dry (I do realize this is a weekend scramble in December and not a Major).

KennyPerry

Fox has E.A. Tischler — a full time golf teacher — exclusively doing golf analysis. This is a bit different than how the other networks do it, with the commentators also moonlighting as swing gurus like with Kostis (an accomplished teacher in his own right) or Chamblee. Tischler’s first review of Stricker, Kuchar and Kenny Perry’s swing was great information but suffered a bit from strange context; it sort of appears out of nowhere and perhaps Fox was a bit too eager to show off its swing mechanics chops. E.A. nonetheless does a fine (albeit pre-recorded and somewhat bland) job narrating the nuances in each golfers takeaway, although the arrow graphic featured on both the face-on or down-the-line view is not necessarily explained.

Commentary grade: B

Appearance

Fox’s appearance package, a bit needlessly tech-y at time, is actually pretty good. One thing that stood out was the sound quality. It’s entertainingly sensitive, picking up lots of golfer-caddy strategy chatter. A few times, the cameraman seemed a bit wobbly behind the tee however.

NeonHole

You could have predicted that Fox, whose mascot is Cleatus the Robot, would get hi-tech in some way shape or form during the broadcast. Behold the neon hole surrounder brought to you by “FoxLabs,” which I don’t have anything against necessarily, but seems pretty pointless. I can’t really recall a time where I mystified as to where a guy is rolling his ball to. Still, it left me curious as to what other techy tricks Fox will have up its sleeve going forward.

One thing I do need, however, is a shot tracer. I think that is one of the coolest advancements in golf TV in recent memory. Do yourself a favor and google “Tiger Woods Protracer,” then sit back and watch the glory.

Appearance grade: B-

Final Thoughts

Overall, I think Fox did a decent job during their TV debut. Will Buck and Norman be the next Nantz/Venturi or Hicks/Miller combination? Early indications would seem to make meeting those standards unlikely, but give them time. They had a promising, capable start.

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Lawyer, Bachelor and Golf Nut. John also writes for his and his sister's Italian culinary and lifestyle blog at www.johnandelana.com, maintains an honest GHIN handicap, and is from New Jersey; all of which he is proud of.

65 Comments

65 Comments

  1. Rob

    Dec 19, 2014 at 8:58 am

    Never liked Miller, talks about himself too much and is sometimes too opinionated however, every once in a while he says something incredibly insightful. Can’t imagine listening to Norman and wondering if he will ever realize he is not the only person on earth. The stupid exchange between Norman & Faxon was inexcusable but pure Norman. Good thing the remote has a mute button.

  2. cmasty

    Dec 18, 2014 at 8:39 pm

    Awesome

  3. Trubo

    Dec 18, 2014 at 12:41 am

    Never heard Buck commentate before this event, so didn’t find him too hard to listen to. If Greg said ‘absolutely’ once, he said it twenty times. And, as usual, tried to hard to sound incisive. Just speak to us as you would one of your mates.
    Didn’t like the ‘tron’ sound effects of EA’s analysis.
    The rest of the team were okay, but not outstanding. Here’s hoping they improve with time.
    I too like pro tracer and would like to hear more about the equipment the pros are playing.
    Can do better B-.

  4. Beacher50

    Dec 17, 2014 at 11:03 pm

    I don’t mind Joe Buck and find him better than most at Baseball and Football. Clearly his golf announcing is a bit rough, but over time it will improve.

  5. Regis

    Dec 17, 2014 at 6:25 pm

    I started watching golf on TV with Shell’s Wonderful World of Golf. Nothing will ever compare to CBS doing the Masters. I like Johnny Miller. Getting more tired by the day of Feherty’s schtick, but I like him as a person. I like Buck on Baseball-he’s perfect but worst fit for broadcasting golf ever-worse than those corporate spokesman who come on tournaments to talk about their company, their dedicated employees and the charities they support. I really liked the Fox graphics. Their three color swing plane graphics are the best since Hogan’s Five Lessons.

  6. ken

    Dec 17, 2014 at 5:07 pm

    What little I viewed was OK….I found myself immediately comparing Fox’s crew to that of CBS. IMO CBS golf coverage is in first place. Everyone else is last.
    Now, after I let FOX stand alone and critiqued it from there, I found myself cringing at the commentary of Joe Buck. Buck is either a work in progress or he is simply not suited to golf.
    Because I’m not a fan of Joe Buck who to me is enamored by the sound of his own voice and presents his play by play in a manner in which he thinks his opinion of the action is important and interesting to the viewers. newsflash, it isn’t. I do not watch sports on TV so that the play by play guy can lecture me on what I should think about the action. Moreover, I am not in the least bit interested in “personal interest” points of view. Buck seems incapable of steering clear of these and other ‘issues’….
    Note to FOX….We can SEE what it taking place on screen. There are times when the announcers should just keep quiet and let the action stand on it’s own

  7. Jeff

    Dec 17, 2014 at 3:40 pm

    Watching the replay right now. Look, it’s the only golf on. Right now, it’s the best golf on.

  8. JEFF

    Dec 17, 2014 at 3:06 pm

    The need to put a muzzle on the announcers…… news flash,,,, taylor made had a new line of clubs!

  9. jgolf

    Dec 17, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    Honestly I didn’t see all of the broadcast, but from what I did see, I thought it was terrible. I really like Fox for the NFL. In spite of Joe Buck. But I’m a golf geek and would usually watch golf and flip to the NFL just to get the scores. I like ABC at “The Open” but glad they don’t cover a lot of golf. NBC is decent,but ever since Miller got the reputation of being “truthful”, I now think he’s gone too far with some of his critiques just to be controversial. CBS is the best of the major networks, but McCord who was funny at one time, has now become a caracature of himself. But Fox…Joe Buck?? Come on. And the NFL theme music they use for the NFL going to commercial break? Did anyone at Fox know they had a golf event to televise before last week? I have to give them a D overall. IMO of course.

    • jgolf

      Dec 17, 2014 at 12:13 pm

      Oh….and without a doubt, the pro tracer is the best thing to happen to golf on TV since HD.

  10. SkierGolferNewHampshire

    Dec 17, 2014 at 11:39 am

    Joe Buck is an excellent football guy, but an awful golf guy. His staccato delivery drives me bonkers. The greatness of the CBS and NBC teams is that they are very conversational. Buck and Norman are anything but. Buck needs to go and be replaced by someone with a more golf-like presences on air.

    I was waiting for something really new. How about using the pro-tracer on EVERY tee shot? That’s one of the great inventions in golf coverage and it’s used so sparingly. It’s a shame.

    • billm311

      Dec 17, 2014 at 4:37 pm

      Joe Buck ruined playoff baseball for me. Now I guess he will be ruining golf for me as well.

  11. Fran

    Dec 17, 2014 at 11:29 am

    Just one question. WHERE IS HOLLY SONDERS????

  12. tom

    Dec 17, 2014 at 9:47 am

    That was a very good write up John. I didn’t see any of the coverage, nor did I care to. Not because of Fox, but because the “shootout” is boring… Frankly, I had no idea it was on until watching some football coverage on Sunday and seeing the box scores. What did that mean? That Fox has not done a good job of marketing that it will be carrying golf, and its native voyage was this past weekend.

    That being said, here I’ll go… I’m particularly qualified to comment on this because a) I was a professional golfer b) I’ve watched a lot of just about every golf tournament over the past seven years.

    Miller/Maltbie/McCord – stale – just stale. They cater to the much older generation(s) and that’s the only chord they strike. I think golf is losing its appeal because of the tired old banter between these “TV Analysts.” I don’t think Norman is going to change any of this. Who cares about his travails on the tour in the 80s. He’s not going to grow the game or get my kids interested in watching golf on TV.

    McCarron/Flesch/Faxon – yawn… There’s not anything different here. Faxon is a bore. Someone wrote he’s one of the best putters to live… Was that you John? Come on… Tiger is one of the best putters to live. Palmer, Nicklaus, Player – guys who’ve won tournaments – lots of tournaments – and oh yeah, majors. Faxon? What has he won? I’m not going to listen to his yukety yuk anymore than I’d listen to McCord’s as he describes the upcoming putt.

    Flesch? No one has heard of him. McCarron? Same…

    Fox is new to golf? yes Check!
    Golf is new to fox? yes Check!

    Get some new announcers. Joe Buck – not new – known for world series – that’s the only place I’ve seen him… Norman – not new.

    How about getting some young hip dudes that have a low handicap. How about Kelly Slater? I bet my kids would watch golf (for at least a few minutes) if an ultra cool surfer dude was calling some holes. What about a call down from the booth like they do for NFL broadcasts? Slater calls down to someone like Laurie Dhue – remember her? She’s the ultra beautiful ex-Fox news woman? That would be ultra fun to watch and would attract a new audience.

    Face it – no one who’s CURRENTLY interested (all of us) in the US Open would turn away from watching it on Fox if a band of super models was walking the course with headphones and microphones calling shots. And if they were led by a hipster like a “Slater” that would be cool too.

    Fox has big pockets – they could afford anyone they’d like to help kickstart this wonderful game.

    How about Charles Barkley in the booth? I could go for that…

    With much love…
    Tom

    • John

      Dec 17, 2014 at 10:37 am

      Check out Faxon’s putting stats – putts per round – from ’93-2000. Pretty insane.

  13. Shelbs

    Dec 16, 2014 at 9:35 pm

    I thought it was ok.

    CBS is miles better then any other broadcast.
    ABC is very good for the British Open too.

    I thought Fox was better then NBC/Golf Channel. Unfortunately Miller and Hicks ruin every broadcast.

    I’ll be looking forward to watching the US Open by Fox…..

  14. Jon

    Dec 16, 2014 at 5:20 pm

    Get rid of Joe Buck his commentary on golf is terrible. He’s rude, boring to listen to and has a lame personality. Put Holly Sonders in the booth at least she’s nice to look at and has a personality!

    • ken

      Dec 17, 2014 at 5:12 pm

      Please….No eye candy.
      I watch golf for the golf.
      Saunders can work in studio…..Away from the course…

  15. Jadon

    Dec 16, 2014 at 11:01 am

    I was looking for the final round of this tournament and couldn’t find it. No wonder. What the heck Fox? Let someone know you’re broadcasting final rounds. Geez.

    • John

      Dec 16, 2014 at 12:30 pm

      last round was on Saturday

      • Jack Nash

        Dec 17, 2014 at 1:41 pm

        Because he was doing NFL Broadcast. Fox will try with all the fancy gadgets like they tried in the NHL but people don’t need flashing lights and do dads. They just like to watch great golf.

  16. Adam

    Dec 16, 2014 at 9:04 am

    The statement at the beginning about attending a live event and not knowing what’s going on is going away. I was at the President’s Cup at Muirfield Village and for $10 they gave us a portable device to watch the NBC broadcast. Best of both worlds. It will be common place to do this on your smartphone very soon.

  17. Travis

    Dec 16, 2014 at 7:05 am

    I have not watched a World Series for 10 years or so now because of McCarver/Buck. Fox sports must be into torture as well as ‘sports’ broadcasting.

    • ken

      Dec 17, 2014 at 5:14 pm

      Mc Carver is long gone.
      Funny thing is, when Mc Carver started his broadcast career with the Mets, he was a credible and knowledgeable no nonsense analyst.
      Once he went national, he grew an enormous go and became unwatchable

      • Kirby

        Dec 18, 2014 at 12:11 am

        I honestly hate mccarver. Im a cards baseball fan and found out he was going to be doing a decent amount of our local games.I listen to the radio with the volume turned off I hate that guy so much.He is so fake, hates the cardinals because they traded his ass, and regurgitates the same crap every game.His best moment ever for me is when Deon Sanders shot that alcohol all over his smug face.

  18. Mizzy

    Dec 16, 2014 at 12:17 am

    First Non-“A” review i have seen on here.

    • John

      Dec 16, 2014 at 10:04 am

      I try to be as objective as possible, Mizzy

  19. Waqar

    Dec 16, 2014 at 12:03 am

    The right wing takeover of golf is finally complete. I used to like norman but now I hate him for being in bed with fox and its ideology. Johnny miller is and will be the most objective and intelligent commentator in golf. I will never buy anything again which is associated with norman, and never play on a course he designed.

    He is seriously overrated as a golfer. He is a known choker, alpha males DO NOT choke.

    • Spinball

      Dec 16, 2014 at 9:19 am

      Brilliant injecting your personal politics into a discussion of a golf telecast. This would be like someone saying “I saw Obama eating an apple. I will never eat apples again.” That sounds pretty stupid; doesn’t it? Being closed minded, as you obviously are, doesn’t add to intelligent debate.

    • ken

      Dec 17, 2014 at 5:15 pm

      right wing takeover…..Oy vay….Leave it to a flaming lib to politicize anything and everything.
      Tut tut….No one asked you to respond.

  20. Taylor

    Dec 15, 2014 at 9:10 pm

    I cannot stand Joe Buck. Please golf, no more Buck. Protracer every shot

    • marcel

      Dec 16, 2014 at 12:02 am

      David Feherty is the best – all the way half dressed half whatever – DAVID is the man and then Shark

    • Double Mocha Man

      Dec 16, 2014 at 11:03 am

      At least there is some golf history in the Buck family. As a kid I remember caddying for his Dad, Jack Buck, at Norwood Hills Country Club in St. Louis.

  21. Pat

    Dec 15, 2014 at 8:52 pm

    No more Joe Buck. Dude doesn’t know anything about golf and has the personality of a door knob. Monotone voice which puts me to sleep. I’m glad Miller isn’t commentating anymore. Way too cocky and self-righteous. McCord isn’t funny and needs to retire. Norman’s alpha male “testosterone overdrive” attitude is way too abrasive for TV. Don’t get me started on Costas, he says some of the stupidest things and my brain cells die whenever he talks about politics. I think Faxon, Feherty and Maltby are great for the sport.

  22. 1putt23

    Dec 15, 2014 at 8:21 pm

    Holly Sonders please!!!;-)

    • Pat

      Dec 15, 2014 at 8:54 pm

      No way. Holly is the definition of fake and plastic. More Win McMurry please.

      • 1putt23

        Dec 15, 2014 at 9:20 pm

        I don’t watch Morning Drive anymore….I’ll take Win too….but she’s not on anywhere ;-(

      • Kirby

        Dec 18, 2014 at 12:16 am

        No kidding,that chick wears so much freakin makeup, her voice sounds like she has smoked for 50 years, her fake breasts are ridiculously too large for her frame,and she looks 20 years older than she actually is. These guys wanting her on t.v. need to get some better standards.Good lord.

  23. Ritch

    Dec 15, 2014 at 7:38 pm

    I think Fox needs to bring back “Loves Theme” that ABC used for many years during their broadcast of majors.

  24. slider

    Dec 15, 2014 at 5:55 pm

    any Canadians on here this is just like sportsnet taking over CBC not good for the game of golf firing miller and maltby for norman buck and others

  25. james

    Dec 15, 2014 at 5:48 pm

    did not like fox joe buck knows less about the game than roger maltby and I am a huge miller fan so I don’t like to see him go and maybe fox could get their cameras out of fairway bunkers right in the line of poulters shot. Also for greg this is not a time to promote your wine and other businesses just stick to calling the action. Overall grade is an F and Fox is going to ruin the game unless they get some smarter broadcasters

    • Pat

      Dec 15, 2014 at 8:43 pm

      I agree that Joe Buck is horrible and doesn’t know squat about golf. We see enough of him when he does football games. He has the personality of a door knob. Snore fest.

  26. tiptin

    Dec 15, 2014 at 5:43 pm

    The coverage offered nothing new to bring in new golf viewers
    I agree with RobG’s comments above. So much new technology is available to make golf look interesting on TV. Just showing 80% coverage on putting doesn’t cut it like all other channels do. Show different shots via pro-tracer, show proper player shot alignments instead of same straight camera angles, over head camera shots, good slow motions of swings, even aimpoint break lines for putting..need something new and interesting to spruce up the 3-4 hrs of golf. Otherwise it gets less interesting to even watch it on DVR

  27. Steve

    Dec 15, 2014 at 4:33 pm

    I’d be very happy if they could get the protracer on every shot. I love that

    • JOSH

      Dec 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm

      Yes!!!! Completely agree. Love the protracer.

      • John

        Dec 15, 2014 at 5:01 pm

        Protracer is just pure glory. Youtube has a bunch of amazing compilations if you ever want to wonderfully kill time.

    • jonno

      Dec 16, 2014 at 2:05 am

      they have protracer on every shot for japanese golf which when i watched a tournament recently amazed me – i thought they needed to setup a static camera behind the tee to make it work, they had it going off their normal cameras if stationed behind the player.
      makes me think it’s just software so there’s no excuse for it not to be on every shot possible.

  28. RobG

    Dec 15, 2014 at 3:48 pm

    I personally don’t care about the commentary on a golf broadcast, I just want to see more golf. NBC and CBS have become almost un-watchable. They only show shots of the leaders and a few guys close to lead and fill the rest of the gaps with 8 replays of shots that we have already seen from different angles, commercials, useless banter or “features.” I tune in to watch golf, the more shots they can show in real time, the better.

    • rgb

      Dec 15, 2014 at 7:17 pm

      Oh God, the ‘features’ waste of time at the Masters is intolerable. And the low funeral-home tone voices. Its a golf course, for heaven’s sake, not the manger of Christ.

  29. Scooter McGavin

    Dec 15, 2014 at 3:25 pm

    No offense to Yanni, as he has made a lot of money selling albums to middle aged folks, but how can you call “In Celebration of Man” the “greatest sports theme of all time”, when I don’t even know that there’s ever even been a performance by real musicians (and not just the MIDI computer rendering that’s played on the broadcasts). Have you never heard Williams’s “Olympic Fanfare and Theme”? I’m pretty sure that qualifies as a sports theme.

    • John

      Dec 15, 2014 at 5:13 pm

      Scooter – great point and great song. I probably got a bit dramatic in handing Yanni that crown. But, come on, “In Celebration of Man” is just fantastic.

  30. FTWPhil

    Dec 15, 2014 at 3:05 pm

    Didn’t watch.
    Hate Miller!
    Tech reminds me of their ill fated attempt at NHL.
    Need protracer!

  31. James

    Dec 15, 2014 at 2:48 pm

    At least Fox was trying some new things. I liked the highlighted hole. I would like to see a putt tracer and fill shot tracer too. I wonder if they thought about a GO-NO GO zone for attempting to hit a par 5 in two?

  32. Nathan Sargent

    Dec 15, 2014 at 12:55 pm

    Johnny Miller stinks on TV. However, he is the GOAT. Just ask him. He’ll tell you. Literally every broadcast he brings up shooting 63 at Oakmont. “You could hit a small bucket and not do any better than that”

    • sgniwder99

      Dec 15, 2014 at 8:10 pm

      Dude, forget about every broadcast. If I shot a Sunday 63 to win the US Open I’d mention it every SENTENCE.

  33. Brad

    Dec 15, 2014 at 12:42 pm

    Fox broadcasted more live swings in one hour than Golf Channel/NBC does in two. Bonus: no Johnny Miller.

    • bradford

      Dec 15, 2014 at 1:27 pm

      I’ll agree with the lack of Johnny Miller. Can’t go anywhere but up from there

      • John

        Dec 15, 2014 at 1:39 pm

        can understand the sentiments on Miller. Still, I somehow will miss his grouchy tone for the Open.

    • jill

      Dec 15, 2014 at 5:53 pm

      miller is a stud tells it like it is my favorite announcer

  34. mtn1414

    Dec 15, 2014 at 12:33 pm

    They must have mentioned ten times that Kuchar ran a 5k Saturday morning before the round, and acted like it was some amazing feat. It’s not like he ran a marathon before playing the final round at the Masters.

  35. west

    Dec 15, 2014 at 12:12 pm

    The more golf coverage/access/exposure…the better! Good for the game! Love it! Kudos Fox!

    • Regis

      Dec 18, 2014 at 5:12 pm

      Only Fox is replacing NBC. To me its a step down

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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