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What it’s really like when tour players hit new clubs for the first time

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I call them “OMG” golf commercials. A tour player is on the range hitting a new golf club and he can’t believe how far and straight it’s going.

[quote_box_center]“Is this legal?” he might ask. “It’s amazing. It’s going in the bag today!”[/quote_box_center]

Watch enough of these commercials and you’ll probably be convinced, at least once, that your clubs have been your problem all along… Or that every golf equipment company is full of it… Or you’ll fall somewhere in the middle. But how do tour players really react the first time they test new golf clubs? That’s what I always wondered, and for that answer I attended TaylorMade’s 2015 ad shoot.

The shoot took place in September at Reynolds Planation in Lake Oconee, Ga., where Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Camilo Villegas, Ryan Palmer, Boo Weekly, Brendon Todd and Sebastian Cappelen tested the company’s new RSi, R15 and AeroBurner product lines for the first time. At the time of the ad shoot there were only a handful of hittable R15 and AeroBurner products in the world.

34caafe82e48861e0df3174083983de2

TaylorMade’s R15 430 driver

I use the word “hittable” loosely. TaylorMade engineers were still dialing in the look and feel of the metal woods. At any moment, one of the drivers, fairway woods or hybrids might break, the product team explained to me — it was the nature of any first prototype. The clubs stayed intact, but it was surprising to learn that a breakage was a possibility.

I spoke with Jason Day, who was taking a break from golf to rehab the thumb and back injuries he’d suffered during the 2014 season. He’d hit a few shots for the cameras, but that was it, so we talked about the process he goes through before he puts new clubs in the bag.

[quote_box_center]“I test everything on the range on a launch monitor, and the numbers have to be better for me to make the switch,” Day said. “If it’s going straighter and longer, I’ll change right away, but they have to be better.”[/quote_box_center]

IMG_3748

One of the first sets of TaylorMade RSi TP irons produced. They were given to Sergio Garcia at the ad shoot.

Day told me that he expected to make the change to TaylorMade’s new RSi TP irons in 2015, but what was really excited about was switching iron shafts. For years he’s used Rifle 7.0 iron shafts, but he’d heard great things about Nippon’s N.S. Pro Modus3 Tour 130X iron shafts from other tour players.

[quote_box_center]“Apparently, that shaft is off the charts,” Day said.[/quote_box_center]

Like us, professional golfers like to try what their friends are playing.

IMG_3749

Brendon Todd testing an AeroBurner 3 wood with Brian Bazzel (left) and Keith Sbarbaro (center), TaylorMade’s PGA Tour rep.

I spoke to Brendon Todd, who won his first PGA Tour event in May, the HP Byron Nelson Championship. Brian Bazzel, TaylorMade’s senior director of product creation for metal woods, guessed before Todd’s fitting that he would likely be a fit for the company’s new R15 driver. He turned out to be a better fit for TaylorMade’s AeroBurner driver.

“He’s definitely an AeroBurner guy,” Bazzel said afterward. “That’s why you never go into a fitting with a closed mind.”

Todd was also a fit for the AeroBurner 3 wood, which he was hitting almost as far as the driver. He was so impressed with the AeroBurner line that he wanted to try an AeroBurner hybrid, which TaylorMade’s product team hadn’t expected. I then watched what I was sure never happened with a tour player. Todd proceeded to test an AeroBurner hybrid with a (gasp) stiff-flex stock shaft, which was entirely too bendy and light for him, but he didn’t seem to mind.

IMG_3733

Brendon Todd talks to Brian Bazzel about the AeroBurner hybrid.

[quote_box_center]“Those were some really good clubs,” Todd told me after the fitting. “Once you find something you like, you stick with it. I think [the AeroBurner] 3 wood might be the one.”[/quote_box_center]

Ryan Palmer was the most interesting player to watch get fit for metal woods. He’d held onto TaylorMade’s Burner SuperFast 2.0 driver from 2011 and it hadn’t hurt his game — he had his best year on Tour in 2014, earning nearly $3 million and finished 14th in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

With the Burner SuperFast 2.0, Palmer was averaging a launch angle of 11.5 degrees with a spin rate of 2200 rpm. His ball speed was a brisk 172 mph. With the R15 460, his launch jumped to 13 degrees and his spin rate fell to 2000 rpms. His ball speed also went up, to about 173.5 miles per hour. That gave him 9 yards more carry distance and 6 yards more total distance, but you wouldn’t have known it from his reaction.

When PGA Tour players use a driver that’s several years old, it’s because they really like it. A few extra yards isn’t always enough to get them to change; it often takes better performance and an increased sense of confidence from the new club, and the two things aren’t always synonymous.

I learned from Keith Sbabaro, TaylorMade’s PGA Tour rep, that Palmer doesn’t like to switch clubs. Sbabaro went on to say that Palmer’s 5 wood – a TaylorMade R9 from 2009 – would be the hardest club in his bag to replace.

Sbabaro said those words just as Palmer was testing TaylorMade’s new R15 five wood, which he was carrying about 10 yards farther than his R9 five wood. I saw Palmer uncork a big smile, which got bigger as he found he could replicate all his shots with the new club. The high draw, the low fade, the high fade, the knockdown… he rotated through his repertoire of shots looking for something he didn’t like, but he didn’t find anything.

Palmer was ready to make the switch, but the problem was that the TaylorMade team wasn’t ready to give him the club. Bazzel explained to Palmer that the sole design still needed minor tweaks, and besides, he couldn’t even test the club in public. The R15 line wouldn’t be made public until much later.

[quote_box_center]“If we make him wait, Ryan won’t trust us,” Sbarbaro said. “Everything about this club: the lie angle, the loft … everything is perfect.”[/quote_box_center]

At one point, Sbarbaro suggested that Palmer sign an impromptu contract that would allow him to take the club home and keep it there until he was cleared to take it to the range.

[quote_box_center]“I, Ryan, will not take the club out of the house,” Sbarbaro rehearsed with him.[/quote_box_center]

Bazzel pointed out that the 5 wood had an open hot melt port that gave it a higher-pitched sound than wasn’t ideal, but none of that mattered to Palmer.

“This one is just better,” he said “I don’t care.”

I was watching an “OMG” golf commercial, but it was happening in real time in front of me.

I watched several other fittings — Justin Rose, Boo Weekley and Sergio Garcia — and looked for similarities in the way the players approached their clubs. The one common theme? They had very little in common.

IMG_3778

Justin Rose tests TaylorMade’s RSi irons with Tomo Bystedt, TaylorMade’s director of product creation for irons, putters and wedges.

Rose, like Jason Day, was mostly concerned with getting better launch monitor numbers with the new clubs, and he seemed to want to know everything about their design. Boo Weekley was the opposite. He didn’t even notice the slots on the faces of TaylorMade’s RSi irons until they were pointed out to him. He judged new clubs by their feel and ball flight, and showed an uncanny ability to predict what shots with the new clubs were flying slightly farther or spinning more – which the launch monitor always seemed to confirm.

My favorite part of the event came courtesy of Garcia when he was testing R15 drivers. Garcia said he would have played TaylorMade’s SLDR 430 driver last year, but there was something about the way it looked at address that he didn’t like. The SLDR 460, which is larger, looked better to him, so he played that driver in 2014.

IMG_3794

Sergio Garcia compares the R15 460 and the R15 430 drivers.

During the fitting, Garcia quickly decided that the R15 430 would be his driver for 2015. I watched him use it to hit drive after drive with similar trajectories. The launch monitor confirmed that each shot was flying about 290 yards in the air and rolling out to 315 yards.

Garcia then took a break to chat with Bazzel, and Rory McIlroy’s name came up.

“Every time, he tees it as high as he can and swings as hard as he can,” Garcia said. “If I hit every drive like [Rory], I’d be scared I’d hit it out of bounds.”

Garcia proceeded to “hit one like Rory,” teeing the ball as high as the tee allowed and swinging a little harder. The result was a higher launch angle, less spin and about 20 yards more distance, which he replicated with several more drives.

That was my “OMG” moment. If Garcia could do that, what else could he do? What else hadn’t I seen?

Thank goodness the PGA Tour is the testing ground for new golf equipment, and thank goodness for the unreasonable standards these players demand from their clubs. It makes the final product that much more precise.

The only downside? Less conviction when I blame bad shots on my clubs.

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76 Comments

76 Comments

  1. mobile strike hack reactor

    Jan 10, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    Adhere to the tutorial below and start working with the hack to unlock exclusive things and weapons for
    Global Strike.

  2. Will

    Nov 25, 2014 at 12:14 pm

    I’m currently toying with the idea of investing in the new TM gear in the new year. Currently a Titleist player off 3 so no bias there. Really informative article, especially the points regarding the new Nippon shaft that Day mentioned. I saw Stenson has also put this in his irons. Interesting how the players feel a steel shaft can make such a differerence considering the flex probably isn’t too dissimilar. Also the fact that Garcia preferred the 460cc SLDR last year, shows that pros don’t necessarily go with the longer hitting and more compact 430cc versions but choose more on personal preference.

    I would be interested in more information regarding the TP specifications and set ups the pro’s tinker with. I imagine the pro’s are playing substantially more advanced shafts than us lowly amateurs.

    Regardless, congrats on the article Zak, the first one that has impelled me to leave a comment.

    • Teaj

      Dec 8, 2014 at 10:10 am

      just don’t count out Titleist as their 915 Series of driver woods and hybrids are pretty dame good. I found that they were not as long as BBA and SLDR but their issue with spin on low hits with driver has seemed to lessen quite a bit which im sure due to the slot. I’m waiting for the Vapor Pro, R15 and the word on the street is that there is a Lower Spinning G30 coming down the pipeline. Exciting times at least for me in the new year when all the new gear is out.

  3. mike

    Nov 19, 2014 at 5:36 pm

    I don’t usually finish long article, but this article is too interesting to read.

  4. Regis

    Nov 19, 2014 at 3:21 pm

    I’ve been living, breathing and reading about all things golf for almost 50 years. I loved the article. I feel incomplete because I don’t speak Spanish but I do have the requisite intelligence to read a number of reviews before making my own decision then demoing a club and getting fit . And seriously how often does a major manufacturer introduce a driver that’s a real dud? Maybe not for me but…. Right now I’m gaming almost all SLDR products but its not because of what I read in an article.

  5. Jim

    Nov 19, 2014 at 1:35 pm

    Really interesting article. Well done Zak!

  6. Dan

    Nov 19, 2014 at 11:29 am

    Without a doubt one of the best articles I’ve read on GolfWRX. Do you haters even pause to consider we see more articles like this about TMAG because they actually grant more access to behind the scenes stuff than any other company?

    • Mike

      Nov 19, 2014 at 12:11 pm

      Also could be due to the fact that TMAG has about 3x as many product cycles as any other OEM.

      • Dan

        Nov 19, 2014 at 1:08 pm

        No, it isn’t. When did the SLDR come out again? 3 months ago right?

        • Regis

          Nov 19, 2014 at 3:09 pm

          July 2013 but don’t let the facts get in the way of your opinion.

          • the dude

            Nov 19, 2014 at 7:38 pm

            sarcasm…?

          • Dan

            Nov 21, 2014 at 3:26 pm

            So, 18 month product cycle? Way too shoey and killing the business? Sheesh

  7. Desmond

    Nov 18, 2014 at 8:33 pm

    I’ve found the TMAG premium lineup is for the best players with speed … and that’s not me. But I found the article entertaining.

  8. golfing

    Nov 17, 2014 at 5:07 pm

    • golfing

      Nov 17, 2014 at 5:12 pm

      he learned the club and won 11 times that year.

  9. James

    Nov 17, 2014 at 12:48 pm

    So Sergio tees the club higher, which would indeed launch it higher, swings harder, which indeed would make the ball go farther, and it is all due to the club? Please. Maybe the setup he had helped him hit it straighter and not hook it as he feared but if you tee the ball higher, you have to make an adjustment in setup for it, and if you swing harder and hit it solid it should indeed go farther. I would say it had more to do with Sergio than the club.

    • Zak Kozuchowski

      Nov 17, 2014 at 12:56 pm

      Who said it was the club?

      • Dave S

        Nov 17, 2014 at 5:38 pm

        Some guys just like trying to poke holes in everything.

        Great article. Love the insight.

  10. Sebastien

    Nov 17, 2014 at 8:47 am

    I loved the insider look at a product and experience. I think more articles like this are needed on WRX.

  11. Jose Jimenez

    Nov 16, 2014 at 10:59 pm

    Hay Dios Mio!!!!!!!!! Que porqueria!,,,,,,,,, sorry! This poorly add disguised as a genuine article shocked me so bad I reverted to my native language! This once informative website is turning into nothing more than a online version of Golf Digest. And they wonder why I stopped reading their magazine after more than 20 years,,,,

    • Alberto

      Nov 17, 2014 at 3:45 am

      Estas criticando solo por criticar. Your comments don’t provide any constructive feedback. As you have great experience in the game for more than 20 years, tell the editors how to write an article, tu experiencia es valiosa, compártela. Don’t say that this is a porquería, just tell them what you expect from them, what they should include in any review or article, in that way they will improve and you and many others will be please to read these articles.

      Or go a step further. This website was hiring editors. You could be one of them.

      By the way, I’m just a reader that plays golf since a couple of years ago.

      • Jose Jimenez

        Nov 17, 2014 at 1:44 pm

        Dime en que lenguage quivers que respnda a lomque to has dicho, que tal si lo escribo en Español ? Imwill respond to you in English so everyone can read it. Did you notice that this gentleman ONLT answered those that complimented this add? I mean article. I want HONESTY, don’t tell me that this is “actual” reactions when we can tell it is nothing but scripted remarks. Last I read, they were hiring writers for this website, and there is NO WAY some one who says the truth about products tested would be bird since the ones who pay the bills (Taylormade just one of them) would NOT want honest reviews about their products. Since you stated your have been a golfer for just a couple of years, here is something you will NEVER read in articles here, a $50-100 fitting will do MORE for your game than shinny new clubs.

        • Dave S

          Nov 17, 2014 at 5:40 pm

          Haters gonna hate. Personas con odio van a odiar.

          • Jose Jimenez

            Nov 18, 2014 at 2:22 am

            Perdón? Quisiste decir “Odiosos van a odiar” that is the proper translation of haters gonna hate,,,,, see? Can’t trust Google translator !!

        • ken

          Nov 19, 2014 at 1:58 pm

          Please provide an example of a “scripted remark” by one or more of the players interviewed.

      • ken

        Nov 19, 2014 at 1:57 pm

        Estoy de acuerdo
        I cannot stand it when one finds it necessary to always be contrary.

  12. Truth

    Nov 16, 2014 at 9:31 pm

    Golf WRX more like Golf TMAG

    • Dave S

      Nov 17, 2014 at 5:43 pm

      So by your logic, this article would only be worthy of your eyeballs if the author went around to every manufacturer and compared notes of players’ responses during club testings? TMaG obviously offered to let him stop by, should he turn down the offer? SMH.

  13. Al385

    Nov 16, 2014 at 3:31 pm

    Although I’m not a TM fan, I have to admit that this is a great article, well written and it also made me feel that I was there witnessing something that would answer all my questions about the hype of new products, especially from TM that every other month offers something new that claims to be longer and better. Good for TM in inviting GolfWRX and good for Zak for such a good article.

    Would I buy a TM club after this? probably not but for sure I will read with enthusiasm any other similar article from Zak about the launch of any other products. Hopefully he’ll get invitations from other manufacturers as this is the only way to read about this kind of experiences.

    By the way, latest WRXers visit to The Oven (Nike) deserved a to be in the front page, not only inside the forums.

    • Zak Kozuchowski

      Nov 17, 2014 at 12:49 pm

      Thank you for reading, Al. We’ll continue to find ways to bring our readers closer to the action.

  14. allen

    Nov 16, 2014 at 10:40 am

    Would all this negative feedback be here if this was with Ping or Mizuno clubs? I dislike TM with a passion and I think it has been years since I have even hit a TM product (although I will not take my V Steel 3 wood out of the bag). I liked the article, it was a good read, and yes a little infomercial sounding, but that is fine, I will not hit any of these clubs anyway.

    • ken

      Nov 19, 2014 at 1:59 pm

      Those players are signed to TM. Therefore they would not be testing other brands

  15. eric

    Nov 16, 2014 at 12:35 am

    Great PR piece. Congrats to Zak and golf wrx for your new job as the marketing dept at Adidas GOLF. Was this a paid placement by TM? Cause if it was not it should be. Hey whatever keeps those TM drivers coming…is the R15 like the 20th TM driver of 2014 so far? Awesome. Nothing like reading PR fluff with my nightly beers.

    • John Smith

      Nov 16, 2014 at 5:43 am

      Completely agree. This is just marketing tripe trying to be passed off as an independent article.

    • rob23

      Nov 16, 2014 at 8:55 am

      eric… there are always someone like you that hate to hate. Yet you are still here reading. Zak did a great job writing a piece that was less of a promo and more of a behind the scenes and you have to call foul. BORING bro… be right.

    • Matthew Carter

      Nov 16, 2014 at 10:34 am

      Great write up Zack!
      Dig insider info especially on the players and their thoughts on new product.
      Well done!

      • Tom

        Nov 16, 2014 at 1:44 pm

        I agree. This is info I can use when deciding to purchase new gear. I wouldn’t buy a car without doing research on it first. This type of information is helpful.

  16. donnie

    Nov 15, 2014 at 9:03 pm

    Great article!

  17. J

    Nov 15, 2014 at 7:48 pm

    Contrived. Sell more AD Space.

  18. Tom

    Nov 15, 2014 at 6:07 pm

    Thank you to all the positive people here. Those who continue to be negative and bash OEMS are just part of the problem with golf. I for one am excited to see the new changes. Every time a second version has come out with TM it has looked and felt better. i.e. r11 to r11s. RBZ to RBZ 2.

    • Joker

      Nov 16, 2014 at 3:03 am

      Can’t take a joke? We’re just ‘aving a laugh

      • enrique

        Nov 16, 2014 at 6:10 pm

        I just did a tally. It’s 50/50 in the comments negative vs. positive. If half your readers are turned off by the subject, angle, approach, and have a gross feeling like they were just marketed to, then something is wrong.

  19. enrique

    Nov 15, 2014 at 3:41 pm

    more and more nausea….

  20. Bogeypro

    Nov 15, 2014 at 3:08 pm

    why do I feel like I just read a taylor made commercial?

  21. toomuch

    Nov 15, 2014 at 1:47 pm

    Just more TMag propaganda! They would definitely have to pay me to even touch their clubs.

    • Rich

      Nov 17, 2014 at 3:49 pm

      They are a marketing machine but if you’re not playing their clubs purely based on that, you’re missing out. I don’t care what brand it is. If it works, I’ll use it. The new spider blade is an awesome putter. R11 woods were awesome and my spare set of R9 TP irons are nice as well.

  22. Oscar

    Nov 15, 2014 at 3:50 am

    And the Best Actor Oscar goes to………..

  23. Ben

    Nov 15, 2014 at 12:47 am

    This was a great article, I’d love to see other pieces in a similar vein. Always fun to see the pros in a different light.

  24. KK

    Nov 15, 2014 at 12:15 am

    Of course the equipment matters. That’s why you see a handful of very popular unsponsored items on tour: TM drivers, Scotty putters, Vokey wedges and Pro V1s.

  25. Fsubaseball21

    Nov 14, 2014 at 8:25 pm

    The RSI irons are no joke. 2 consecutive days on the monitor and the mis hits are as good as solid hits on on 3 other major oem sets. The toe hits were almost perfect. I know people are skeptical but these slots absolutely work. No question.

  26. JHM

    Nov 14, 2014 at 7:35 pm

    very interesting – thanks for the insight

  27. tina

    Nov 14, 2014 at 5:36 pm

    Bazzel … ohh behave!

  28. Tom Duckworth

    Nov 14, 2014 at 5:06 pm

    Very good read. It is fun to see what they think of new clubs for the first time. Sounds like most players won’t switch unless the clubs are really better. I also didn’t have to read about their pants….great!

  29. tiger woods

    Nov 14, 2014 at 2:53 pm

    awesome article! love hearing what the pros are actually thinking.. was really surprised by sergio’s “rory” drives.

  30. Derek

    Nov 14, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    Ok,I have faith in the GolfWRX journalism again. Great read.

  31. Rich B

    Nov 14, 2014 at 2:10 pm

    Great article. Something original and different to other recent ones.

  32. Leon

    Nov 14, 2014 at 12:34 pm

    On the tour level, especially for big players, everything is well built and tweaked for them. There is really no performance difference among different equipment brands. If there were, guess what, the players would certainly like to give up some endorsements but to make more wins instead. Plus, the players hit the ball so good that they don’t need the amount of forgiveness as we do.

    The problem is, the off the shelves products we got have noticeable variation of quality and performance. Most of the part came from the shaft quality. And for the average Joe, we need a hack amount of forgiveness to cover the miss. Now, the TM pushes the R15 GC more forward and even lower. Yes, it will give you more distance and less spin on a perfect shot, but guess what, it will make the club much harder to hit and you will lose more balls per round thanks to TM’s innovation.

    You won’t blame TM for this because the tour players play them, and because you can occasionally bomb it 10 yards further. You just think it is just your swing that causes the problem. Well, it is. But if you forget this “innovation”, you can simply save a few OB per round. Nobody would trade his hard money for more frustration, will you?

    • TM

      Nov 14, 2014 at 9:31 pm

      LOFT UP!

      It works. That’ll help you hit it easier too.

  33. totebagger

    Nov 14, 2014 at 10:25 am

    best article on the site so far. well done gwrx. more of this please!

  34. YB

    Nov 14, 2014 at 3:40 am

    And the Oscar goes to………………………

  35. mv

    Nov 14, 2014 at 3:30 am

    I am not TM fan..but I liked this article a lot..well done. I want to try these clubs after thos read:)
    You have to be paid by TM for such great stories. 😉

  36. Dufferino

    Nov 14, 2014 at 1:10 am

    Great Read!

    As Cory, i’d really like to see a follow up on how they get the chosen gear adjusted and tweaked before putting it in the bag.

  37. Jeff

    Nov 13, 2014 at 10:16 pm

    Outstanding story, Zak. You seem to think and ask about a lot of the same things I would, I think it’s why you’re my favorite writer on WRX. What a fascinating experience. Cant wait to see Palmer hit a 5 wood or if Sergio’s driving distance goes up. Great, relevant story.

    • gunmetal

      Nov 16, 2014 at 11:46 am

      Sergio’s distance won’t change more than a couple yards in either direction. That’s what it has done over the past ten years. A lot of fellow wrxers get upset when I cite PGA tour driving distance statistics, but the simple truth of the matter is that they don’t lie. Distance has been around the same ever since the pro v1 surfaced and the decisions to limit the trampoline effect came down.

    • Zak Kozuchowski

      Nov 17, 2014 at 12:57 pm

      We’ll keep you updated on these players’ changes with our tour photos and WITB stories, Jeff. Thanks for reading!

  38. Bubba

    Nov 13, 2014 at 10:14 pm

    Wow! Shocking positive commments/reactions from guys that are paid to play TM clubs! (sarcasm)

  39. sgniwder99

    Nov 13, 2014 at 9:52 pm

    And here I assumed that they just went to the WRX classifieds like I do.

  40. Tomar200

    Nov 13, 2014 at 9:41 pm

    This is the kind of stuff that drew me to Golf WRX to start with! Please keep this kind of content as priority!

  41. Travis

    Nov 13, 2014 at 9:38 pm

    Best article yet!

  42. Cory

    Nov 13, 2014 at 8:07 pm

    One of my favourite reads ever on this site. Great to see the first time reactions and how different guys are in getting their new gamers. Would be fascinating to see a follow up once they tried them on the course and if that changed anything for them when forgiveness starts to matter more.

    Also amazing to see how much a guy like Sergio is swinging less than his absolute max in order to stay controlled, good advice for most of us. Also maybe why Rory is so freaking good in that he doesn’t and still keeps it under control haha

  43. 3golfer3

    Nov 13, 2014 at 7:51 pm

    I still feel like my Rocketballz 3 wood should be illegal.

  44. Cwolf

    Nov 13, 2014 at 7:37 pm

    Great article!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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