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Opinion & Analysis

Sybase Match Play Championship preview

Published

12 years ago

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By Vince Robitaille

GolfWRX Contributor

Not only does Yours Truly already enjoy the gritty test and gamesmanship of match play from a golfer’s perspective, the added pleasure of filling brackets after March – and to do it with you this time around – can’t leave us but fully contented. In fact, with the Sybase Match Play Championship coming back to Hamilton Farm Golf Club for the third consecutive year, it is now time for us to look into the year’s lone head-to-head tournament of the season – one which saw 2012 Kraft Nabisco champion, Sun Young Yoo, and World No.3, Suzann Pettersen, win in 2010 and 2011 respectively. In order to make an attempt at claiming grabbing rights versus a virtual opponent – at the risk of incongruent upsets causing me to fall flat on my face – inspecting the venue, first and foremost, appears logical. Once this is done we’ll go through the table and get a feel for who might come up on top of the 64-player event.

The par-72 Hamilton Farm Golf Club will play, for this week’s Championship, to a slightly above-average length of 6,553 yards. While this could appear to be a significant advantage for the upper tier, in terms of distance, of the field, with all four par-5’s covering more than 500 yards – the longest being the 568-yard-long 11th – players opting out of planning their par-5 adventures as three-shot holes should prove quite the rarity. Furthermore, while a par-5 finishing hole might usually lend a helping hand to the LPGA’s bombers, in match play, more often than not, pairings won’t reach the 18th hole; thus eliminating a clear birdie opportunity for the longer hitters.

Greens on the hilly grounds of Hamilton Farm, a location that also plays host to the United States Equestrian Team, are somewhat peculiar. The majority of them are quite deep – some reaching depths of 40 yards – yet narrow, or, much to the contrary, rather wide and shallow. Ergo, players who combine superior distance control and lag putting. Much like South Korea’s Na Yeon Choi, United States’ Morgan Pressel and Scotland’s Catriona Matthew, could knife their way through the brackets to exit victorious this weekend. Our quick course overview behind us, we shall now proceed to our selections and highlights.

In the Patty Berg Division, while clear favorites Tseng and Creamer should move on to the second round rather easily, Hee Young Park and Brittany Lincicome might experience harsher times on their way. Park, on her hand, will have to put a halt to the surprising hot streak of French golfer Karine Icher who came out of relative obscurity – at least, on this side of the pond – to record back-to-back top 5’s in the Mobile Bay LPGA Classic and the HSBC Brasil Cup. Ultimately, however, Park’s flat stick shall prevail. Perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the division at this stage, the Lincicome-O’Toole duel, will see two players that have shown the killer instinct necessary to dominate the format. Even though we see Lincicome pulling through and eliminating what could be her fiercest foe until the group’s final stage – assuming that the head-to-head battle reignites the fire, in O’Toole, that was put out by a fishtail ending at the Solheim Cup last fall – one would be hard-pressed to find a pick on which we’d prefer to be wrong.

The second round’s most heated match should be between the aforementioned Catriona Matthew and Caroline Hedwall. The Solheim Cup teammates will clash in what will either end in a decisive win for the veteran, or a hard-earned triumph for the young Swede in extra holes. Proving that sometimes guts are stronger than brains and hence dismissing the stellar form of Hedwall in 2012, our long established pick for the summer’s Ricoh British Open, we’ll opt for the former option. At the other end of the table, in the Battle of the Brittanies, Lincicome should take care of Lang who, over the last few months, has shown signs that she might take her spot on the weekly radar of the LPGA Tour back, after all.

The divisonal semifinals will, in Yours Truly‘s opinion, play theaters to what will prove itself to perhaps be the paramount upset of the week, namely Matthew’s victory over Yani Tseng. Yes, you heard right. The World No.1’s usually systematic quasi-perfect performances have ever so slightly faded recently and, despite this week’s visit with putting guru Dave Stockton, we expect a few slippery 5-footers to edge out and, eventually, cost her the match and leave Matthew to face Lincicome. Sticking with our previous reasoning regarding the primordial skillset to swiftly manoeuver around the Hamilton Farm Golf Club, and taking into consideration the American’s tendency of late to decelerate in her fourth trip around the course, we’re picking Matthew to reach the Final Four.

As for the Kathy Whitworth Division, the first round should let us observe two heated pairings, the first consisting of two golfers who have enjoyed recent success despite an inability to close out, So Yeon Ru and Karin Sjodin, and the second comprising a resurgent star in Meena Lee, as well as a swashbuckling Vicky Hurst. Both melees should reveal themselves to be quite puzzling as a golfer in each of them, namely Lee and Sjodin, have the ability to go quite low on this specific type of course, as well as the predisposition to hit dry spells mid-round. Thankfully for both of them – and for us as spectators – the week’s format should keep the Korean and the Swede right in the thick of things, if either of them records an inopportune double-bogey like it has been the case at the Lotte Championship and the Kia Classic, respectively. Once the dust settles after the day’s rumblings, look for the statistically superior Ru and the fist-pumping grinder that is Hurst to stand firmly on their own two feet; until their next fixture that is. In fact, we forecast a short-lived celebration for our two golfers as Americans Michelle Wie who, despite absolutely horrendous performances over the last few months which resulted in missed cuts, has shined when put in a ring against one specific opponent whether it’d be at the Solheim Cup or in this very event – she tallied a 9th place finish and a top 5 in the previous years – and Cristie Kerr should play telephone poles to Ru and Hurst’s drifting cars.

Continuing this trend of quick dampers on previous successes of our featured players, the mechanical standouts that are Ai Miyazato and Angela Stafford, should steadily cut through both the course’s and their adversaries’ defenses to reach the divisional final; a final which, taking into consideration the fulgurant comeback of Miyazato to the very summit of the LPGA’s food chain, will turn in her favor – the Japanese’s short game mastery finally proving too much for the Texan’s steady ball striking.

The Mickey Wright portion of the table is arguably unbalanced; the previously cited Na Yeon Choi and Morgan Pressel, as well as 2008 U.S. Women’s Open champion and current World No.25, Inee Park highlighting the upper half of the bracket, while the bottom part’s star, Jiyai Shin, has suffered slender putting woes of late which have kept her from her reaching her usual crusing speed. That being said, her four top 10s in six events on the LPGA Tour this season and the fact that she has never finished in worse position than a tie for 26th in the first major event of the year, goes to show how fast her cruising speed actually is.

Joining her as favorites of this section of the field is the renascent, well one would be more accurate to describe it as trending, Natalie Gulbis. The American – who shall be profiled in a future installation – has enjoyed recent success, notwithstanding her propensity to hand in high scorecards early in tournaments, by showcasing a diametrically opposed faculty to get down in the mid-60’s. Three of those four players, according to our predictions will dispose of Jenny Shin, Inbee Park and Beatriz Recari, before colliding together in the semifinals; the other, Gulbis, succumbing – in the second round like both previous editions – to the 18-time top 10 finisher on the LPGA Tour, Amy Yang. At that stage, Na Yeon Choi’s loftier short game as well as superior ball striking, should enable her to upstage Pressel. In a battle where two identical swords – see playing styles – are drawn, Choi’s is, simply put, sharper. The Shin-Yang matchup would most likely turn out to be one of the Championship’s closest, one where an established star would confront a soon-to-be household name that could easily seem built from the former’s very own prototype. Riding her current wave of success, our vote goes to Yang. Nevertheless, our money won’t be riding on the 2010 LPGA Tour Championship runner-up against Choi.

The last fourth of the field is miles away from the other three’s relative homogeneity. A rather wild collection of golfers with contrasting styles, current forms and match play affinities, greatly widening the variance, an accurate prognosis seems somewhat unlikely. Thus said, this exercise is exactly that, an exercise; one wanting itself to open a dialogue.  Reverting back to the Annika Sorenstam Division, while the victories of favorites Pettersen, Gustafson, Munoz and Sun Young Yoo are to be anticipated, don’t blink when you see Tiffany Joh – whose amateur match play track record is nothing short of spectacular, having won the U.S. Women’s Public Links twice in 2006 and 2008 – and Pornanung Phatlum defeat their opponents. The same could be said of Jessica Korda, for reasons analogous to Joh’s, if the Australia Open could start sinking putts; a hypothesis that hardly stacks up against Hee Kyung Seo. Nevertheless, on greens that shall play a tad slower due to the rain – hopefully permitting her to be more aggressive with the flat stick and quit leaving her putts a foot short – as well as on a course that renders obsolete the weakest part of her game, namely her play out of the sand, we’ll make Korda our wild card pick.

The latter rounds in the Annika Sorenstam Division should see the Sybase Match Play Championship’s two first champions, Sun Young Yoo and Suzann Pettersen, run the table, before running into each other. Ultimately, betting against Pettersen in match play is plain ludicrous and it is why, despite her lackluster form, we’re picking her to not only beat the reigning Kraft Nabisco champion, but her subsequent adversaries, presumably Na Yeon Choi and Ai Miyazato.

Click here for more discussion in the “LPGA/ladies golf talk” forum. 

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

17 hours ago

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Apr 18, 2024

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

17 hours ago

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Apr 18, 2024

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

4 days ago

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Apr 15, 2024

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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