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Timeless tips to beat the cold: The GolfWRX Guide to Winter Golf

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This story is part of our new “GolfWRX Guides,” a how-to series created by our Featured Writers and Contributors — passionate golfers and golf professionals in search of answers to golf’s most-asked questions.

It’s been said often, and rarely disputed, that a golfer will play through anything. Not even a downpour of biblical proportions immortalized in the movie Caddyshack can keep Bushwood’s resident bishop from squeezing in a quick nine.

So if you’re one of those golfers who is willing to venture outdoors when it’s cold and windy, on days that require running the defroster on high, here’s a GolfWRX Guide for extending golf into the winter season and enjoying it.

Before You Hit The Course

It’s safe to say that many golfers suffer from complacency. We have all found ourselves at times grabbing any old polo shirt out of the closet, flinging our golf bag into the trunk of our car, sprinting to the first tee, not bothering to hit a practice bucket. And in the summer — we can get away with it.

Winter, however, is harsh and uncompromising. But it doesn’t have to beat you up; all it takes is a little preparation, so let’s get started.

Golf isn’t always thought of as a physically demanding game, but it does take some flexibility and coordination, especially when it’s cold out. If you’re one of those weekend warriors who thinks a sit up is something you do when you’re relaxing on the couch, a little exercise can keep your game from going into hibernation. A good way of loosening up before your tee time is with a 20 to 30 minute warmup at home. Titlelist Performance Institute has developed a routine consisting of a series of flexion and extension exercises that hit all the major muscle groups involved with playing golf. The routine doesn’t require any special equipment and it’s easy enough to do, even for a person leading a sedentary lifestyle.*

Once your body is warmed up, it’s time to prep your golf bag. Make sure it’s stocked with extra tees, balls and towels. If this sounds like overkill — believe me — it’s not. Tees tend to snap more easily in the cold, balls always seem to find a pile of dead leaves to hide in and you’re always toweling off something — whether it’s a sand wedge caked with dirt or your nose dripping with snot. Don’t make a rookie mistake and use a single towel for both.

I also recommend bringing a golf bag hood to cover your clubs and an umbrella in case of precipitation. This is especially true if you happen to live in a traditionally wet corridor of the world such as the Pacific Northwest (West of the Cascades) where the average monthly rainfall is at its highest from November through March.

Lastly, don’t forget about snacks and water. You should be able to pick up these items at the course in case you forget, but never rely on a muni to maintain a half-way house in the middle of winter or expect to see beverage cart girls zig-zagging between fairways like they do in-season.

Of course any discussion about playing in cold weather has to mention apparel. The keys to dressing warm and staying dry? Layers and fabric. Look for clothes that you can easily coordinate without adding unnecessary bulk. When evaluating a garment, ask yourself — is it lightweight, breathable, water-repellent and / or wrinkle-resistant?

Here’s a simple cheat-sheet even the most fashion-impaired can follow:

  • When choosing socks, cotton is fine, wool is better. Pick a pair that are a decent length. I prefer wearing compression socks — they’re great for keeping your calves warm and help with reducing lactic acid buildup in your legs the following day.
  • Except when it’s mild out, I strongly advise wearing a base layer consisting of a compression shirt and pants. Almost any sporting apparel company worth their ilk produces a decent product, but I personally like Under Armor’s form-fitting ColdGear collection for retaining body heat.
  • For shirts, any type of technical fabric that wicks is fine. Some golfers enjoy wearing shirts that sport a heavier weave in winter such as pima cotton or a poly-cotton blend. In terms of pants, you’ll need pair that are waterproof and windproof for really lousy weather; on better days you can’t do much better than with Maide’s Highland Pant which earns high marks for its traditional style and great fit.
  • Keep it simple with knits; stick to classic colors and silhouettes that can be worn on and off the course. The chunky and often-times scratchy sweaters of your father’s generation have been replaced with lightweight knitwear made from performance wool fabrics that don’t get in the way of your golf swing.

Depending on what you have on and the conditions you might encounter while golfing, you may want to bring a jacket or pullover that you can easily put on or take off as needed. Make sure you buy something wrinkle-free that you can fold up and shove into your golf bag. As far as footwear, it goes without saying that you should wear something water-proof.

When it comes to accessories, keep it simple. A warm hat, a stick of lip balm to carry in your pocket and a solid pair of gloves. FootJoy sells one of the best rain gloves in the industry and a pair of DryJoys Cart Mitts are easy to slip on and off between shots (in frigid conditions). On sunny days, remember to wear sunglasses. Too many people still think that temperature affects the intensity of UV radiation when in fact it doesn’t. Exposure to the sun’s rays can be just as damaging in the winter as it is in the summer.

At The Golf Course

So you’re all bundled up like Hagrid in Harry Potter and you even managed to arrive to the club with plenty of time to spare. But from the moment you shut off your car’s engine and feel that first blast of cold air, you briefly consider putting your car in reverse and heading home.

If you’re expecting to hear some irrefutable advice that will help you conquer the cold and save you strokes playing on a surface hardly more forgiving than concrete, I’m sorry to say you’ve come to the wrong place. Bad shots and bad weather are made for each other. We’ve all experienced the thin shot that stings your hands, the skulled chip from a bare lie, the long approach that comes up well short, maybe even the dreaded shank. And if you happen to be playing in the rain, well, that’s a whole other level of suck.

That being said, attitude plays a crucial role in determining how you cope with the elements and your mental state. You’ll have a much better time out there if you come prepared with a game plan and set your expectations accordingly.

Martin Kaymer at the WGC-Match Play Championship

Use the extra time you have before your round begins to hit some balls on the range. Your goal here, as it should be at any time of year, is to establish a rhythm and a feel. Don’t allow yourself to be preoccupied with distance or direction; after all, you’re hitting frozen golf balls off a more frozen mat. If you have time to spare, drop a few balls down randomly just off the putting green and practice your chipping. Your ability to recover from a bunch of less-than-stellar shots short of the green might be the difference between playing for keeps or just playing to keep warm.

When it’s time to tee off, always elect to walk the course if the opportunity presents itself. Golfers who keep their bodies moving between shots are less likely to feel cold and stiff. With any luck, the course will be half empty allowing you to play 18 holes at a brisk pace. 
Even More Tips For Winter

While it’s possible to post a good score in the winter, don’t be obsessed with grinding out a low number. In fact, forget stroke play altogether — give alternative formats like match play, best ball or Stableford a chance. You might find that these games give your weekend matches some much-needed zip in the off-season. It might even encourage some of your less courageous golf buddies to get off the couch and join you. 

As for my actual advice on play, let common sense prevail: Move up a set of tees, club up in cold weather, learn to hit a punch shot and always keep your primary golf ball as warm as you can between shots.

When your round is over, hurry the hell up and get warm. If you’re not accustomed to grabbing a meal or a drink at the club’s grill room, make an exception. There’s nothing better than sharing a table with good company, eating a burger hot off the grill and poking fun at all those unfortunate souls who won’t celebrate making a birdie till Spring.

*Disclaimer: Always gain clearance for your training from a doctor or well-qualified exercise professional before commencement of an exercise regime.

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Rusty Cage is a contributing writer for GolfWRX, one of the leading publications online for news, information and resources for the connected golfer. His articles have covered a broad spectrum of topics - equipment and apparel reviews, interviews with industry leaders, analysis of the pro game, and everything in between. Rusty's path into golf has been an unusual one. He took up the game in his late thirties, as suggested by his wife, who thought it might be a good way for her husband to grow closer to her father. The plan worked out a little too well. As his attraction to the game grew, so did his desire to take up writing again after what amounted to 15-year hiatus from sports journalism dating back to college. In spite of spending over a dozen years working in the technology sector as a backend programmer in New York City, Rusty saw an opportunity with GolfWRX and ran with it. A graduate from Boston University with a Bachelor's in journalism, Rusty's long term aspirations are to become one of the game's leading writers, rising to the standard set by modern-day legends like George Peper, Mark Frost and Dan Jenkins. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: August 2014 Fairway Executive Podcast Interview http://golfindustrytrainingassociation.com/17-rusty-cage-golf-writer (During this interview I discuss how golf industry professionals can leverage emerging technologies to connect with their audience.)

38 Comments

38 Comments

  1. Pingback: Grinding Through Cold Weather Golf with Rusty Cage’s Guide to Beat the Cold – Game Golf

  2. Pingback: Winter is over, let’s get back to golf

  3. Pingback: Winter Golf: Tips To Beat The Cold | Rusty Cage | Writer and Golfer

  4. Pingback: Winter Golf: Timeless Tips To Beat The Cold | Rusty Cage | Writer and Golfer

  5. Pingback: Winter Is Coming: Timeless Tips To Beat The Cold | Rusty Cage | Writer and Golfer

  6. Pingback: bump & run chat | snow golf: where to play and tips for the cold

  7. Dan

    Dec 25, 2014 at 12:45 pm

    I live in MIchigan and have found that flannel jeans are a great way to go. Try Land End or Eddie Bauer.
    I’ll be out again tomorrow…. December 26.

  8. Pingback: Wailing At Wintry Woes - The Golf Shop Online Blog

  9. Mark Davis

    Nov 10, 2014 at 5:31 pm

    Perhaps most importantly, have fun playing all bundled up! (I’m not talking about windproofs here… I’m talking about playing on those odd sunny days up north when when all the hazards are frozen over (rub of the frozen green, I guess) and you don’t need headcovers to do the “headcovers under the arms” drill.

    Get out, warm up really well, get some legwork in and bash the bloody ball around. A few solitary hours to think about important stuff whilst doing what you love. (If you bring a group, there’s bound to be a whiner, ruin the whole experience which is difficult enough to begin with.) Big fun, can’t learn anything (except which booze to bring next time and which Kleenex are the softest), defy the gods and play through despite. Oh, and thanks for the flask info. Essential stuff.

    And keep an eye on those airfare sales to Florida or wherever.

    God love the Northern Golfer.

  10. Mudder

    Nov 10, 2014 at 4:49 pm

    I prefer rain pants over regular pants to stay warm as well as dry. So long as you’re not wearing heavy denims underneath it works pretty well without restricting your swing. The bonus is that you can take off the rain pants when you go into the clubhouse and look normal without having mud on your pants.

  11. Double Mocha Man

    Nov 10, 2014 at 11:23 am

    Winter golf is the solution to slow play! It’s too cold for the golfers in front of you to play at a summer’s snail’s pace, if they’re even there. And it’s too cold for the summer slowpokes to even be on the course. But yes, it’s never too cold for that flask.

  12. gvogel

    Nov 10, 2014 at 8:16 am

    Patagonia makes a synthetic puff pullover that is very warm.

    Keep a couple of extra balls in your pocket, and put a warm one in play on every tee by rotating them.

    Walk and carry 8 or 9 clubs.

  13. MikeOZ

    Nov 9, 2014 at 6:59 am

    Move to a warmer climate, then you can play all year round!

  14. Johnny

    Nov 9, 2014 at 3:25 am

    What’s the problem with leaving your clubs in the garage over winter? Would be good to know since mine live in the garage all year round

  15. Chris C

    Nov 8, 2014 at 9:41 pm

    I strongly recommend an electric vest.

  16. Jason

    Nov 8, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    Decent article. But, no mention of a cart cover, hand warmers, extra propane, etc? Bringing a heater without a cart cover is insane!

  17. davepelz4

    Nov 7, 2014 at 11:13 pm

    Sun Mountain makes a microweight shell that you can wear that will not constrict in the least and also conserves body temp. if you need to add a layer, add this.

  18. other paul

    Nov 7, 2014 at 8:47 pm

    I recommend hitting 30-50 balls a day in the garage into a net. It is helping my ball striking so much that I make keep the net up and do it all year! I play Vgolf in the winter a few times a month and my scores are usually 2-3 strokes better then on course. I just put in two rounds of 75 and an even par on 9. I actually hit more balls last month then in August and September combined and my game is improving so fast. Picked up a couple miles an hour of club head speed to.

    • bradford

      Nov 21, 2014 at 12:55 pm

      Careful, the simulators favor a very particular swing that will destroy your game on soft ground.

  19. Titleistfan

    Nov 7, 2014 at 8:40 pm

    No mention of best type of head gear plus I want that Kaymer mouth scarf (anyone know what it is?)

    Windproof jersey and pants essential as is a goretex beanie hat

  20. Mike

    Nov 7, 2014 at 6:25 pm

    Nice article,
    Try this, stay home shut it down for the winter and take a break most are not going to play ny the rule and cheat since the conditions are not season ready.

  21. Mike Belkin

    Nov 7, 2014 at 4:47 pm

    A flask and a good match are my essentials for a winter round in New England

  22. Ponjo

    Nov 7, 2014 at 4:41 pm

    Try some hand warmers called Hot Rox.

  23. nikkyd

    Nov 7, 2014 at 2:07 pm

    Hard to do where i am. Greens are tarped for the winter 🙁 its hard to get backspin on a ball in 30 inches of snow anyways. Hey, whats it like putting on those spray painted dormant bermuda grass greens? Does it feel like putting on artificial turf? Are the greens receptive to approach shots? I was looking at the greens the big guys are playing on down in mississippi, the greens are GREEN. Noone said anything about them being painted

    • Ken

      Nov 8, 2014 at 7:49 am

      Here in the Nashville area there are a few courses with bent grass. They are mostly green throughout the winter. The Bermuda greens quickly go dormant and get fairly slick and brown. Sometimes it’s like putting on tile.

  24. ABgolfer2

    Nov 7, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    Hockey.

  25. J

    Nov 7, 2014 at 11:30 am

    Pocket warmers…I’ve found you have a tendency to keep the body warm just by walking and carrying your clubs, but when your hands are cold the game is very hard to play. You lose feeling on everything. Plus, I alternate balls, leaving one in the pocket with the warmers. This may or may not help with compression on the tee shot.

  26. Jim

    Nov 7, 2014 at 11:24 am

    Great article and advice on how to keep playing through the winter. Layering is the best advice as well as using sunglasses. Switching to a yellow ball really helps when there are leaves or even low light levels too. But maybe the best ‘advice’ is to simply enjoy the quiet on the course during the colder months as you’ll likely be one of the only ones there (at least in the Northeast)and it’s terrific.

    • sgniwder99

      Nov 7, 2014 at 4:08 pm

      Amen to that. Living in Rochester, NY for the better part of a decade, there was one winter when I was able to play all winter long due to an unusually mild winter. That was quite an experience. The courses were actually closed, but the munis would let you walk on. Most days I’d be one of the only people out there, and it was dead quiet. Great change of pace from normal in-season play. It was also…interesting playing the same pin placements for 4 months straight.

  27. bradford

    Nov 7, 2014 at 10:40 am

    Also wanted to add, WALK. If they don’t force you to take a cart, don’t. Keeping moving will keep you warmer.

  28. Jay V.

    Nov 7, 2014 at 10:36 am

    A lot of people forget the softer golf balls. They really make a difference in the cold. Put the V1s away and pick up Z-Star SLs or Q-Stars. You’ll feel the difference, hit them further, and won’t care as much when you lose one.

  29. Mike

    Nov 7, 2014 at 10:33 am

    Great article. I plan on playing much more this winter, and this will help out a lot!

  30. Ken

    Nov 7, 2014 at 9:14 am

    Probably just an oversight, but there’s no mention of choosing wisely when purchasing a high performance winter flask. By ‘high performance,’ I mean that something on the wee side … 4 oz … is selfish. Friends always ask, “Do you have a little extra?” Of course, I realize that brown water imported from Kentucky or Ireland is at odds with E-Bars and bananas, but what the hell.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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