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Opinion & Analysis

FedEx Cup Playoffs points system still not right?

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If we are measuring the FedEx Cup’s major points system overhaul in 2009 by its stated goal—to infuse more drama into the Playoffs finale—the sea change has been a resounding success.

Following a Vijay Singh performance in 2008 that left the Fijian basically a lock to win the Cup with two events to play, the PGA Tour tweaked its points system to put far less emphasis on tournaments prior to the Tour Championship in hopes that the final event’s new disproportionate influence would mean more dramatic conclusions.

The returns?

No eventual FedEx Cup champion has moseyed into East Lake needing only a pedestrian finish to cast in the $10 million prize. The three Tour Championships following the Singh yawner produced high-profile, intense battles for the FedEx Cup crown. In 2009, there was Phil and Tiger. The next year, Jim Furyk faced a manageable but pressure-packed up-and-down for the jackpot. In 2011, Bill Haas pulled off one of the most memorable shots in Playoff history to capture the glory.

Really in every sense of that narrowly proscribed objective, the PGA Tour has received its wish. The same Tour Championship that Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson skipped (voluntarily) in 2006 now serves as the centerpiece for the PGA Tour’s end-of-summer drama.

But has too much been compromised in the process? More and more that seems to be the case.

We’re all pro-drama here and likely nobody wants to see a return to the doldrums of the initial FedEx Cup setup, but the current format has grown stale.

Screen Shot 2014-09-18 at 4.31.03 PM

With Billy Horschel’s double-victory in the season finale, the last five winners of the Tour Championship also captured the FedEx Cup in the year of said triumph. Woods is the only FedEx Cup champion under the new scoring format to not also place first at East Lake.

While this sort of result is generally desirable for the Playoffs concept, the lack of diversity here is alarming. Part of the charm of this four-event end-of-season rendezvous is that, in theory, a player can capture the FedEx Cup in several different ways. Maybe eliminating the Singh method is prudent, but there’s something to be said for a guy needing to place second, finish top-five or post a top-10 at East Lake to capture the Playoffs. When a gaggle of players not winning the Tour Championship are jockeying for the position that affords them the FedEx Cup trophy, the dizzying shift from one potential winner to another can get crazy exciting and hectic.

The current format actually allows more players a chance to win it all at East Lake, but, paradoxically, makes it more likely to find just one avenue toward taking the Playoffs crown: winning the Tour Championship.

In the last five tournaments at East Lake, the double winner concept has not only been upheld but rarely challenged. In 2010, Paul Casey had a chance to win the Cup with a solo second and briefly appeared he might do so, but after that fleeting moment Jim Furyk and Luke Donald jockeyed for the victory they needed to take everything home.

Screen Shot 2014-09-18 at 4.32.36 PM

A year later, Webb Simpson had a chance for the FedEx trophy down the stretch after a 22nd-place finish at East Lake, but the final action came down to Aaron Baddeley, Hunter Mahan and Bill Haas–three guys who started the tournament outside the top 20 in the standings and three guys who needed to win for FedEx Cup glory.

And the last three iterations really didn’t acknowledge the possibility of a non-Tour Championship winner’s shot at the FedEx Cup crown. To be fair, the last two champions started the Tour Championship second in the standings, but from 2010-2012, the winners started 5th, 11th and 25th respectively.

What’s even the point of having a four-week playoff stretch if the writing on the wall says that for the most part only the Tour Championship is going to matter?

The points resetting prior to East Lake isn’t the issue, but rather its setup is the glaring flaw. The lack of clout for players at the top of the standings makes a non-East Lake winning FedEx Cup champion pretty improbable.

A low FedEx Cup winning total is 3,000 points, something only the top five in the standings can accomplish without winning the Tour Championship. Only the FedEx Cup leader can finish outside the top-five at East Lake and still win it all in this scenario and Nos. 4 and 5 must place at least solo second to have any chance.

Even Bill Haas’ low total of 2,760 is only reachable by non-winners among the top six in the standings, with the Nos. 5 and 6 players requiring solo seconds.

With this information, we should be screaming for a change to the points reset. In the current iteration, so few have a shot as non-winners. Why not tweak the points so that say the top 10 in the standings are significantly separated from the rest of the pack?

We’re not talking a massive overhaul. Give players in the top 10 500 or 1,000 more points after the reset than they currently get, or at least enough to make it quite difficult for the lower ranked players to take the Cup even if they win at East Lake.

In any given Tour Championship, the players vying for the FedEx Cup are those fighting for the tournament win and maybe, maybe the top couple of guys in the standings (of course some fit both categories). A reset more skewed toward the top would go toward eliminating the lower ranked golfers heading toward an East Lake victory.

But this is simple addition by subtraction.

Maybe less people have a chance at the Cup, but if those in the upper echeleon of the standings at East Lake are further advantaged and far less beholden to win or bust for the $10 million, the greater leeway means more names are in the running for the whole prize Sunday at the Tour Championship.

More names means more chaos and more drama.

The Tour Championship’s extreme grip is not the solo issue though. The Playoffs should offer more points than regular season events can and should reward the mediocre season-long performers that turn blazing hot in the postseason. But hasn’t moving up in the Playoffs become a little too easy?

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Morgan Hoffmann started the FedEx Cup Playoffs 124th in the standings posted a solid but unspectacular T9 at the Barclays and jumped all the way to 72nd. He moved up 52 spots and basically had a spot at Cherry Hills based on one measly top-10.

That becomes a major issue when it comes to the field at East Lake. One would think the Tour wishes for the strongest group possible at the Tour Championship, its showcase final event.

When Playoff volatility is so large though, that objective suffers. At East Lake, you want a combination of  regular season performers and hot postseason golfers. With this system, you sometimes get neither.

Players like Geoff Ogilvy, who moved from 100th to 24th in the standings with a runner-up at the Deutsche Bank, sneak into East Lake. No offense to the former U.S. Open champion, but one week of great play doesn’t a “hot” player make. Instead, you get a guy who played mediocre or poor golf more or less the entire year save one outlier week. Not exactly the type of competitor you want among the final 30.

We don’t intend to rid the system of the “Cinderella” playoff performers. But “Cinderella” should imply a standard of consistently great golf rather than one impressive week. Consequently points in the first three playoff events should be significantly diluted, if still plentiful.

This is not another article bashing the FedEx Cup. Whatever its flaws, the end-of-season extravaganza has infused much more energy into golf’s closing stretch.

Still, Tour brass should understand that the FedEx Cup can be improved. Stepping down the power of the Tour Championship and strengthening the finale’s field by way of more restricted point totals in the first three events can accomplish just that.

Few want to see the 2008 results again, but with the formula once again a cut, dried and somewhat hindering presence, maybe these tweaks are in order.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

27 Comments

27 Comments

  1. ken

    Sep 24, 2014 at 12:59 pm

    Increase the number of regular tour event requirement from the current 15 to 18.
    Exclude Majors from point consideration.
    The first event in the FedEx Cup should remain as it is.
    The next event should be cut to 64 players.
    Then change to match play. Cut the field to 32 players.
    The losers play on day one( Wednesday) in a 36 hole match play format. Those 16 players then are seeded against the 16 in the winners bracket.
    On day two, those players meet to cut the field to 16 Then play another 18 to get to 8 players.
    On Day three they cut it to 4. Then on Saturday cut it to 2 then on Sunday the final two players go at it for the Trophy and the cash.
    If this loosely resembles the US Amateur, correct.
    These guys are pros. They can handle the grind.

    • lakawak

      Mar 8, 2016 at 6:49 am

      Match play is the WORST way to determine a winner.

  2. Rich

    Sep 24, 2014 at 2:03 am

    Majors should be worth a lot more than the 600 points given to them. How are they worth less than a quarter of the playoff events? Aren’t they still the pinnacle of golf? Not according to the fedex cup they’re not……….ridiculous

  3. golfpro

    Sep 24, 2014 at 12:45 am

    Love the idea of no points. Just keep reducing the field! Its pretty much whoever wins the tc wins it all anyhow!

  4. NaBUru38

    Sep 23, 2014 at 4:33 pm

    The Deutsche Bank, Barclays and BMW should give 1000 points, not 2500.

    Instead of resetting points, the FedEx Cup winner should be decided on strokes. The season leader would get a 50-stroke “Wednesday” score for the Tour Championship, the second 60, the third 65, the fourth 68, the fifth 70, the sixth 71, etc. Then the Tour Championship would get a 10-stroke bonus. The player with less FedEx Cup strokes would get the 10 million dollar check.

  5. Philip

    Sep 19, 2014 at 7:08 pm

    For me the reason for the current points system is to project the PGA Tour by doing the most to ensure the players who where in the limelight and winning all season are protected from leaving before the end for the playoffs. This helps to protect the big stars who try to peak for the majors and can often be burned out by the Fedex cup.

    A player winning 1-2 majors and a few other choice tournaments being eliminated in the first cut is a nightmare for the PGA Tour. This is a result of many people watching their favourite player in golf and once that player is eliminated they move on. Whereas in team sports we each have our favourite team, but if they are eliminated we often move on to another remaining team to continue to watch until the end.

    A lot of people do not watch golf, but watch a player. For team sports those same people watch the sport first and foremost, they have a favourite team, but they watch the sport till the end.

    • Philip

      Sep 19, 2014 at 7:14 pm

      And a big reason for this attitude difference is that in golf we are rooting for an “individual” – this is a lot more personal than rooting for a team.

  6. Show

    Sep 19, 2014 at 4:01 am

    The problem is, guys like Woods only play 16 or 17 events. Other players like Furyk play 30 or more consistently.

    Pure and simple, the points system is flawed. Look at what happened to Dustin Johnson. He got to take home money as he came in dead last to get into the PlayOffs and, to top it off, they didn’t give his place to somebody below who would have showed up!

    The points are way too skewed as of now. It should be simply –
    in a regular tournament, 70 players make the cut ? Then the winner gets 70, dead last get 1.
    Same goes for Majors.

    And once the players know this, and the fact that they would also have to play a minimum of 25 events in a season, and to accumulate enough to just to get to the PlayOffs at the end –
    if the pressure is on like that – they will show up and try harder.

    They coddle the players too much. Too much sponsor money, too much power of the players’ union, too many exemption rules and too many injury exemptions.

    • Themaddriver

      Sep 20, 2014 at 8:43 am

      Proclaimer, I do not like NASCAR. However, I do like their “win and your in” theory. The more wins you have during the regular season should have a direct impact on your seed at the Tour Championship. The guy with the most wins gets the number one spot. This puts a significant emphasis on winning and could bring better fields to all tournaments. This could potentially eliminate players like TW from playing in less than half of the events. The nonwinners thusly are jockeying for the last few remaining spots in the Tour Championship. They can keep the points system the same for everything else including the Tour Championship.

  7. Gazza

    Sep 19, 2014 at 1:01 am

    Winners of the majors should automatically qualify for the final field of 30.

    • Show

      Sep 19, 2014 at 3:56 am

      No, they shouldn’t. Because, they could just as easily not play other events as well. Or even turn up!

    • w

      Sep 19, 2014 at 9:18 pm

      the Fed Ex cup is suppose to crown the best PGA Tour player. Majors are not pga tour events. they should be kept separate. this would put more importance on regular season events.

  8. MHendon

    Sep 19, 2014 at 12:01 am

    Damn you write the most long winded articles Kevin. I don’t think I’ve yet to finish reading one of yours.

    • AJ

      Sep 19, 2014 at 2:09 am

      Have to say I agree. Kevin, part of being a skilled writer is brevity.

      Please can you work on breaking down your articles some more – for the amount of points you eventually raised this article should have been half the length, if not shorter.

      Re the FEC, I think the whole contrived playoffs system is a load of bull anyway. It will rarely, if ever, reward the best player over the season but it’s a common feature of American sports so that why we have it.

      I don’t follow US sport but the playoffs must drive you mad if you support the most consistent team, albeit there is something to be said for having slightly more unpredictability around the end season.

      The football season here in the UK can become pretty dull if a single team is running away with the league or the same few teams are duking it out each season. That said, I would argue that most fans here prefer that to the relative lottery of a play off system to decide our national champions.

  9. Airbender

    Sep 18, 2014 at 11:34 pm

    I think its fine the way it is.
    Even in every other sports, everybody that’s in the playoffs should have a chance to win. My two cents…

    • bradford

      Sep 19, 2014 at 9:31 am

      Then it should be harder to get in–Horchel’s season was pretty meager, he shouldn’t have had a shot at it.

  10. Jason

    Sep 18, 2014 at 10:04 pm

    I like using the points for regular season okay to make the playoffs. After that, the points are gone, and it’s true playoffs. Each tourney, half of the field is eliminated. Now, if you’re looking for drama, that is the formula. I think the PGA Tour got too creative with the point system for the playoffs, and basically over thought such a simple task. To me, it isn’t exciting watching all of these points scenarios play out over the course of the round. It’s far easier and interesting to just say, “Whoever wins this tourney is the champ.”.

    I know some folks will say, “Well, what about the guy who played well all year? Shouldn’t he at least get something in the playoffs for that?”. The answers is no. In any other sport, regular season is nearly forgotten once the playoffs come around. The player who played well all year and gets knocked in round one of the playoffs can sit home and count his earnings and watch the drama unfold.

    I really hope the PGA Tour chnages this system. It’s far too complicated for such a simple desire. My message to it: Keep it simple stupid!

  11. Billy Joe

    Sep 18, 2014 at 9:10 pm

    Nothing against Billy Ho, but this FedEx Cup was like watching a car rust. Not sure what needs to be done, but it needs a tweak. Maybe like the Tour de France has various jerseys.

  12. Simples

    Sep 18, 2014 at 6:49 pm

    If it is going to be Match Play, knock-out stage type set up, then they would have to randomize the next-round players from stage to stage, as they do with the FA Cup in England for their football championship. It would be more fun & exciting that way.

  13. Simples

    Sep 18, 2014 at 6:44 pm

    Points should be for the regular season to get into the PlayOffs.
    Then, no more points.
    Once you’re in, it should purely be a cut-down from week to week in the Final 4 events, where you have to make the cut. 125, then 100, then 75, then 30.

    Match-Play seems like a good idea, in the style of tennis or any other sport with knock-outs, but would not make real sense, as there’ll be guys sitting around for days doing nothing. Would not be good viewing for the crowd or for TV.

    Simples!

  14. Alex

    Sep 18, 2014 at 5:09 pm

    I think it should be 3 tournaments where all 125 play, then top 32 make it to the finals or top 30 and have it match play. If its top 30 top 2 seeds from the first 3 tournaments get byes. And then it should be match play, however i was thinking instead of match play where by hole, you have 18 hole match play relative to par.
    Then every shot would count, and par 3 6th where someone goes into the drink and your opponent gets a birdie its not just 1 up but it could be as much as 3-4 strokes.

  15. Kris

    Sep 18, 2014 at 5:01 pm

    I’m all for a Match Play in the final. But I think it should be true playoffs. Make the cut to move on. Top 100 plus ties make cut in Rd 1, then top 100 after done move on (playoffs if necessary at end). Same for top 60 in 2nd round. No cut in 3rd Rd so just top 32 into the final match play.

  16. RobG

    Sep 18, 2014 at 5:00 pm

    I like the idea of using the points during the regular season to determine rankings but once the playoffs start the points should go out the window and the standings should be based on score relative to par.

    The playoffs should be 16 rounds – 4 four-round tournaments with cuts to 100, 70, and 30 after 4, 8, and 12 rounds respectively.

    The Barclays, Duestche Bank, BMW, and Tour Championship can still crown their own 4 round champion (tournaments within the tournament) but the FEC champion should be the guy who shoots the lowest score over 16 rounds.

    This effectively eliminates guys who skip an event and situations where DJ doesn’t tee it up for 3 months and still makes it to the Tour Championship.

  17. Chris

    Sep 18, 2014 at 4:42 pm

    The Tour Championship should be a match play event of the top 32. Imagine the final match for $10 million! Talk about drama.

    • Teaj

      Sep 18, 2014 at 4:54 pm

      I agree, my buddies and I have talked about this at length and we all agree it should be match play once it gets down to the last 32. every shot would have that much more pressure and I feel you would find out who has the right stuff.

      • Joe

        Sep 18, 2014 at 10:20 pm

        The PGA wouldn’t do matchplay. Let’s say the first round it’s Phil vs Tiger and right off the start one of the two are out. Bad for business. I’m not gonna lie, this tour championship wasn’t the best and last years was worse. I think the points need to be redone. Rory won 3 of the biggest tournaments of the year. He deserved to win in my opinion. And they need to bring the BMW back to Cog Hill.

      • bradford

        Sep 19, 2014 at 9:35 am

        Match play only measures each player against one other player…Perhaps for the final 2, but it just doesn’t ever highlight who’s playing best. It’s a style that particular player excel in, but it’s not appropriate for large groups of players.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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