Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

The GolfWRX Guide to Playing in a Scramble

Published

on

This story is part of our new “GolfWRX Guides,” a how-to series created by our Featured Writers and Contributors — passionate golfers and golf professionals in search of answers to golf’s most-asked questions.

Scramble tournaments mean one thing: birdie-fest! How could you not be excited to play golf where others make up for your mistakes and you get four runs at birdie on nearly every hole? Before you lies the opportunity to team up with three of your closest friends or favorite ringers.

Unfortunately, golfers or entire groups miss the point of playing in a scramble event.

There’s no right answer, but you don’t want to show up at the event without an agenda. If you’re competitive, you might be in it to win it. If you’re charitable, your goal is to raise money for the cause. If you’re generous, your No. 1 concern is to ensure that your friends have a great time and come away with a great story to tell.

You may be inclined to assume that if you’ve played one scramble, you’ve played them all. Before you fire that shot across the bow, let’s take a look at your check list for a successful scramble golf tournament.

Know your format

Screen Shot 2015-04-10 at 12.06.39 PM

It’s a bit odd to call an event a traditional scramble, but it seems that tournament organizers are jonesing to separate their tournament from the rest by way of an altered format. The traditional scramble event follows the following protocol: each golfer plays from the tee, then the group selects one drive. From there, each golfer hits a second shot and then the procedure is repeated until the ball is holed.

In recent years, the Shamble has gained some traction, perhaps to keep teams from riding one player too hard to victory. The shamble requires each golfer to tee off, then have the team select its best drive. From there, each golfer plays his own ball to the end of the hole and the team records the two best scores. While a traditional scramble score will be in the low 60s with handicap, a shamble tally doubles that figure.

Knowing your format is critical to picking your participants.

[quote_box_center]Before teeing off, work out a game plan between you and your partners,” said golf journalist Rusty Cage. “Each person has strengths and weaknesses. Depending on the format, you can cover up for each other’s mistakes.[/quote_box_center]

A number of Buffalo-area golfers and professionals chimed in with their thoughts as well — No. 1 being the need for great putters. The more guys you can get to drain those eagle and birdie putts, the better.

One club pro mentioned 300-plus yard drives. These are the white buffalos of scramble participants — rarely seen, but when you do it’s a pleasure. If you can snag yourself one of these 300-yard driving white buffalos, you’ll be looking at a bunch of birdies, eagles, and hitting from shorter distances than you’ve ever seen. If not, it may be just a helpful to have guys who know precisely how far they hit the ball, with every club in the bag. Realistic strikers help way more than the dreamers.

Preparation breeds success

Screen Shot 2015-04-10 at 12.09.02 PM

Mulligans and strings are the boon and the bane of many a scramble event. Offered before play begins by the tournament committee, mulligans are do-overs and strings are lengths of cord used to move the ball closer to the hole. Each is sold at the check-in desk, with all proceeds going to charity. I have a friend who purchases mulligans, then invariably uses each one twice. Whether he simply loses count or knows what he is doing, it’s cheating! Since he has yet to win an event, the golf gods clearly believe in karma. However, if your goal is to take home the tiny, first-place jug, then get your money in and purchase those mullies and strings.

Remember that order of play is a big deal in scramble events, so you should prepare properly within your group. There is usually one skittish player in every group, so he should hit either first or second each time to alleviate the pressure. If he hits a bad one, he has three golfers to bail him out.

If you play your weak players toward the back of the order, they’ll feel the pressure (self-imposed as it is) every time. There is usually one chap who loves the attention and jumps up to be lead-off man, no matter the shot. Try to reel him back as much as possible. Finally, there is one father figure, the guy who perceives himself as Mr. Pressure. He’ll offer a quiet nod when you ask him if he doesn’t mind the anchor slot. Keep the batting order for as long as it works, but don’t be afraid to mix things up if you get stale.

Load up your team

LongDrive

Golf offers one simple rule to all of its competitors: the hottest player wins. The local scramble brain trust, always intent on winning an event, assembles a team that includes one long driver, one solid iron player, one top-notch putter and a fourth boasting some necessary skill (like money, to purchase the mulligans and strings mentioned above). The problem with this approach is, if one of the experts is off his particular game, the team suffers appropriately. Camaraderie, rather than talent, usually wins the day. Four guys who get along, forgive each other’s misses, and keep the smiles big and the attitudes positive will capture the flag over an all-star compilation.

The other way to do this is to grab three of your greatest friends, guys who love to talk friendly smack, have a cold one and roar when the big dog eats. Whether you win or not is inconsequential; what matters is that a good time is had by all.

Let’s be honest: who brags about winning a scramble? They don’t bring you local ranking points and you can’t qualify into the state amateur by winning one. Keep your priorities in order and your head level. You’ll have a great time and your friends will invite you out to their next scramble.

Get advice from others

Opinions, like noses, are what everyone has. Throughout my fact-gathering process, I was told by experienced scramblers to have the best putter go last. One guy thought outside the box and said to have the best putter and driver hit first. If those skill guys show you the line or put it in play, it frees everyone else up to hit their best shot.

In events where everyone has to count a certain number of drives, swinging free and loose is critical. No matter what they say, however, remember that your partners are flawed. If they were great, they would be on tour somewhere, or playing in the local amateur championship. They aren’t, so they’re not. Having a great time ensures that you will play together again. The more you play together, the more likely you are to have success.

Your Reaction?
  • 142
  • LEGIT28
  • WOW6
  • LOL13
  • IDHT7
  • FLOP20
  • OB5
  • SHANK28

Ronald Montesano writes for GolfWRX.com from western New York. He dabbles in coaching golf and teaching Spanish, in addition to scribbling columns on all aspects of golf, from apparel to architecture, from equipment to travel. Follow Ronald on Twitter at @buffalogolfer.

40 Comments

40 Comments

  1. Daniel

    Apr 30, 2015 at 9:36 am

    Nice article, I especially like the part about preparing mentally before the round. I am usually the “A” player when I play a scramble, not because I’m a great golfer, but because I happen to be better than the guys I play with. The hard part of this is the expectation that I have to get it done if the team is going to play well. Mostly this expectation is self imposed, and it’s hard to just go out and play my game. For example, the team has a 20 ft birdie putt and I’m the last one to go. I miss the putt and get upset because I have seen the line and I didn’t make it. Now if I’m playing my own ball and miss a 20 ft birdie, it’s no big deal.
    I like the advice someone said in the comments about having the best putter putting 2nd or 3rd. It’s so hard when you’re last and you are trying to make sure you don’t leave it short, so you end up blasting it through the break.

    I guess it’s tough being a skittish A player.

  2. Steve

    Apr 27, 2015 at 11:56 am

    Here’s a head gamer tactic we’ve employed. I won’t promise that it will make you win, but it will affect other groups nearby. Eagles really are game changers in a scramble. Of course, when they happen, your team will likely be heard by other teams in the same area of the course. So what’s to stop you from letting out an equivalent cheer, no matter the score? I realized this once on an eagle putt I made from really far across the par 5’s green. We roared when the 70+ footer went in. The green was perched about 20′ above (by elevation) another green and tee box. That roar HAD to get in the heads of our opponents. Pick your locations wisely (for most effect) and let that same roar happen even if your anchor misses that 12′ birdie by an inch. He taps in quickly but the team reacts like they’ve gained serious strokes on the field.

    It’s just a head game. And your opponents will feel the multiplied pressure, no doubt.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 10:56 am

      What goes around, comes around. If everyone employs that strategy, will it be golf? More important, will it be good form?

  3. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 24, 2015 at 10:35 am

    Rule #1… you always need one player who is good at flagging down the cart girl.

  4. Gary Gutful

    Apr 23, 2015 at 7:54 pm

    Enjoy playing scrambles but typically find that it’s the team with burglars that do really well. A 18+ handicapper who generally hits the ball well but has the odd blowout the stops their handicap coming down is perfect for this type of format. Pair two burglars with two solid single figure golfers and you are laughing.

  5. Tre

    Apr 23, 2015 at 7:34 pm

    Good article. The most fun I have ever had on a course was a scramble with a group of teachers I worked with on the last day of school. Any tips on when to use the mulligans and strings? We had two, used them on long birdie putts which changed a par to a birdie. I could see benefits to using them on approaches and par 5s in 2.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:04 pm

      I would use them early, to gain momentum or to keep it going. If you save them for later, the pressure to make them count multiplies. I am a fan of approaches on par fives, so that’s another good option.

  6. Joe

    Apr 23, 2015 at 5:00 pm

    I played in a scramble with a marker where we legitimately shot 50 (-22). Par on one and then 5 eagles (1 on a par 4) and birdied the other 12 holes. We missed from 10 feet on 1 and then made everything including a few putts over 30 feet. It can happen, but with the same group we haven’t shot better than -17 in over 15 years. -20 3 straight years as mentioned above is some high quality BS.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 11:00 am

      I agree, Joe. We’ve played in a scramble at a course you can get, and only once did we catch lightning in a bottle. It was a great ride, though!!

  7. Andy

    Apr 23, 2015 at 4:18 pm

    For 10 years in SE Missouri, I played 4-man scrambles for money. For 9 holes, the “A” players picked his partners, every player puts in 10 bucks, winning 4some takes all… Then do it again & again, heck all day.
    As an “A” player, my first choice was the best iron player, somebody that hits it close. Even with 4 of us putting on 30-footers, need luck to hole it. 10-footers we make 99% of the time.
    Next pick is the good putter, last pick was the long drive guy, which is funny in that Sean Fister was in this scramble game for years, and nobody hits it longer…

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 8:15 pm

      That’s an excellent point, Andy. Someone who can stuff it in there and feels no pressure is better than golf.

  8. MarkNado

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:59 pm

    The most important thing in scrambles is to down shooting 10 under after playing by saying things like “we couldn’t make any putts” or “we had 3 eagle putts but they all lipped out”…that’s all I ever hear

  9. MarkNado

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:51 pm

    Make sure one of your teammates uses a pencil wedge.

  10. Truth

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:31 pm

    I love playing a good scramble its always a lot of fun because i never really care about winning. Simple fact is there will always be one group who takes it too seriously and will end up cheating. Im not saying they wouldnt of had a low score anyway but there will always be a handful of holes they lip out a putt and count it anyway or someone takes a second go at it. You will never escape cheaters in this format just dont let it bother you have a good time

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 11:01 am

      It’s up to every group to police the one ahead of them. We know what birdie putts and birdie/eagle reactions look like. If the guys were blaise about it all day, they didn’t shoot the number they turned in.

  11. Nate

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:30 pm

    Great article, Ronald. Thanks for posting this!

    I prefer to go with a set order off of the tee and on the green but go with the “next man up” philosophy for approach shots and chipping.

    Off the tee, I think the ideal setup is to have the most consistent or accurate guy go first so that he can put one in play. Have your weakest or most skiddish player go 2nd so that you can minimize the liability, and then have the big dogs go 3rd and 4th. On the green, I really like having the best putter go first so that he can show the group the appropriate line and pace. I’ve found it difficult though when putters 2-4 struggle to make consistent contact. Nothing worse than having your best putter go first to show you the line and then have the other 3 guys mishit their putts – a waste of great opportunity!

    At the end of the day, playing well in scrambles comes down to having a fun group and having at least one person get hot with the flat stick.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 29, 2015 at 9:35 am

      Thank you, Nate. If you only have one good putter, you won’t be in the mix. Your top putter has to be borderline arrogant about her/his stroke. You should have a mate who can hit a line, if not the hole, and she/he should go first. Everyone agrees on the line, then that “crash test dummy” goes ahead and hits the anticipated line. 2 gives it a run, then your best putter goes 3rd. If you get to #4, don’t worry if it doesn’t go in.

  12. RobG

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:42 am

    A few years back in our company scramble me and a buddy (both avid golfers) got paired with two absolute beginners. I’m a long ball hitter, JP is phenomenal iron player and we both have decent short games and putters. We shot 58 (-14) riding basically just the two of us. If we had one more guy who could putt, a 52 probably could have happened. It is the lowest round (by 9 shots) to have been recorded in the 15 years of the tournament and it was the 2nd lowest 4-man scramble score ever posted at that golf course – the record is 56. Golf came easy that day and I doubt I will ever have another day on the course like that again.

  13. BD57

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:24 am

    My “rule” for order of play (for what it’s worth):

    Identify the person who’s going to hit last for every “shot” – who’s your anchor off the tee, on second shots, short game shots, putts? Doesn’t have to be the same person (probably isn’t).

    Once that’s done, the first to play of the other three should be the person most likely to hit a decent shot (whatever the shot may be). That person coming through allows everyone else to take a rip.

    Important (IMO) in putting is that the first player to putt be decent on speed – we want to see what the putt does when hit at decent speed so we can adjust our read accordingly (if necessary).

    Playing with friends is a VERY good idea. Scramble teams that enjoy each other’s company tend to do better.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 28, 2015 at 11:09 am

      Friends make the day. If you can raise a toast to each other and laugh off your foozles, you will have a great scramble.

  14. Bob Quigley

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:18 am

    Speaking of your three guys in denim comment, we have a foursome like that who the last three years have won our outing with reported scores of -20, -20 and -22. This year, we thought we would slow them down by requiring at least 4 drives from each player in their foursome. When they reported their score at 20 under, I bet them $100 to play against them any hole they wanted, me against their foursome. They selected hole # 1. They scored a double bogie and I was lucky enough to score a par. I am not so sure we will be seeing that group again!

    • BD57

      Apr 23, 2015 at 11:30 am

      Your experience is evidence of how important it is that there be little to no “Prize” for “winning.”

      Played years ago in a scramble with good friends: Husband & wife (he was a 2, she played golf in college), a long hitting buddy who was about a 5 at the time, and me (also a 2, at least back then).

      We went on a hot streak, aided by the wife playing from the women’s tees (we were using her drives all day), three of us being good putters who had a good day (H & W and me), and our long hitter having a good day. We were 15 under.

      Guys in front of us reported 16 under. There was no way … we saw pretty much every shot they hit, saw them putting, etc. There’s “celebration” in a group which is dropping putts from all over (there was in our group), and we didn’t see it there.

      BUT – – – there was no real “prize” for winning, so it didn’t matter. We’d played well, had a very good day, enjoyed each other’s company, and helped raise money for a worthy cause.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 29, 2015 at 9:38 am

      One word: Inconceivable!

      Another word: Awesome.

  15. Josh Spangler

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:30 am

    In arkansas we have so many good golfers …if you don’t shoot 17-20 under in a 4 man…u ain’t winning

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:31 am

      Is that a scratch or handicap 4 man, Josh?

      • Josh A

        Apr 23, 2015 at 11:47 am

        I can’t speak for the other Josh, but I am also from Arkansas and have played in a number of scramble tournaments here. There are multiple areas in the state–Jonesboro for example–which have a number of charity scrambles each summer that are very competitive. Players will come from all across the state to compete in these, and if you’re not in the low 50s (scratch) then you have no shot at winning the championship flight. These tournaments are expensive, but also provide very generous payouts, so the top teams in these areas basically treat this as a summer scramble tour.

  16. Gorden

    Apr 23, 2015 at 9:56 am

    I like the bland draw scramble where players are put in A,B,C,D rankings by handicap. Each team is a made up of one each A<B<C<D player. Only drawback with this type scramble is the A player that is not really an A player….we all see the 10 handicap showing up with a 15 handicap but far worse is the 15 handicap showing up with a 7.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:33 am

      Good points, Gorden. If the people all know each other or are all very gregarious, the blind draw works well. Many golfers eschew this format, as they must leave their comfort zone to perform in front of golfers they don’t know.

    • Person of interest

      Apr 23, 2015 at 11:42 am

      We often have the same ABCD events at our club, i often end up being the A player. The biggest factor seems to be if your C and D players can hit good drives, I’ve had some D’s that can outdrive me and is always in the short grass, and have had others who are lucky to hit it 100 yards and while keeping it in play! Those are the challenging days.

      This guide is just OK, most of it is fairly obviously advice. Putting strategy is very important, I think the best putter should putt 2nd or 3rd, so he gets a read, but doesn’t have the do-or-die pressure of being the final person to putt.

      • Jive

        Apr 24, 2015 at 11:14 am

        Our club has a stag day ABCD, where the A hits from the men’s tees, the B from what some would call the old man tees, and the C&D from the ladies tees. Use everyone tee shot 3 times. Very little money on the line, but good food before, good food after and libations that whole day. Great kickstart to the season after the Masters. Format levels the playing field, usually a 5 shot gap between first and worst. More money is won or lost on the braggadocios emergency nines or cards afterwards.

  17. Scott

    Apr 23, 2015 at 7:31 am

    The other rule:

    Everyone cheats, and be prepared to have your honest score that you think will do it squashed by 3 guys in denim and a 4th man with a senior flag on his cart by 6 strokes.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 10:31 am

      I’ve been fortunate to not play in those events, Scott. Either we are in the running or we have played so poorly that we know we won’t win. I think the tip-off to cheating is the amount of strings and mulligans purchased. If guys are buying buckets of each, you chalk it up to a good day with great friends, on a great course, followed by a great meal and fellowship.

  18. other paul

    Apr 23, 2015 at 1:36 am

    People that clicked “shank” are dumb. I play in a charity tournament every year and we do just about everything here. 2 of us bomb it. One accurate iron player, one putter. And one of us is solid around the green. Shot 63 last year. And won a few of the other prizes as well. Good article.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Apr 23, 2015 at 5:26 am

      Other Paul,

      At least the shankers voted. Not every “Guide” is 100% thorough (as I found with the Push Cart piece last week) but it opens up a dialogue, making WRX a place to be for golf. I enjoy the scrambles as well. Unless you’re the greatest friend in the world, in a normal outing, you’re trying to beat your buddies. Here, you play together for a cause of sorts. Thanks for your commentary…Keep on reading and scrambling!

      RM

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 7
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB1
  • SHANK2

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

Published

on

As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
Your Reaction?
  • 2
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

Published

on

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

Your Reaction?
  • 30
  • LEGIT10
  • WOW4
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP3
  • OB1
  • SHANK6

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending