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Adams: When modern day fittings aren’t so modern

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In the comments from my story on golf equipment costs, there was some confusion on how equipment companies could be restricted by the USGA on distance and still be marketing drivers that “go farther.” It brought to mind one of my earlier ideas that, like many others, that did not make the cut into the marketplace.

This took place many years ago, and my thought process was such that I knew that it took more speed to deliver a longer-shafted club to the ball, hence producing more distance. Anyone remember the “Killer Bee,” the next great breakthrough? My tests were pre-killer bee.

I also knew it was more difficult to get the head back to square with a longer shaft, and nothing helps distance more than hitting the ball on the sweet spot. For the record, the reason that it’s been called the “sweet spot” is due to that solid, soft feel at impact. What you’re feeling is the absence of vibration, a form of wasted energy, which is more beneficial when imparted to the golf ball.

So to help offset the problems associated with the longer shaft, I decided to incorporate a bigger club head with maximum perimeter weighting, with the club length measuring slightly over 48 inches. Today, the maximum allowable club length is 48 inches, but this preceded the USGA limits. I had experimented with even longer clubs, but felt that 48 inches was the best option given the head weight with which I was experimenting.

You may notice the absence of computer simulations, launch data, or anything suggesting sophistication by today’s standards. For years I was kind of a technically unsophisticated one-man band who took ideas from the range to our shop, worked them until they were worthy of a field test and went back to the range.

After months of effort, I went to the range with my 48.75-inch driver knowing that finding lost yards awaited me. It didn’t happen. In fact, I LOST yardage compared to my old faithful! The problem wasn’t not getting the extra speed, but was the inability to hit the ball consistently on the sweet spot. I tried variations, shortened the shaft, installed a longer one, experimented with counterbalancing, different head sizes, etc., and within a consistent margin of error got the same results — NEGATIVE!

“Maybe it’s just me,” I thought. So I used my personal test group (the folks who came to the Haney Ranch where I was the club fitter) and over a few months collected a significant data base. The results were mixed; some liked it, but only after they hit a lot of balls.

I had a system for club fitting and it was designed to mirror the golf experience as closely as possible. You warmed up, and when your body was ready I had you “tee off” with your driver. Then I handed you the new club you’d be testing. The first swing I overlooked because the new club usually looked much different. It took golfers that first swing to get comfortable. The second consecutive swing was the key!

If you didn’t hit the new club as advertised, whether it be longer or straighter, it wasn’t the answer. Because two shots didn’t seem like enough for most golfers, I allowed three or even four tries, but I generally discounted the extra results anyway.

Why did I discount extra shots? The objective was to find a club that worked for the player “under course conditions.” After the second try, the results were an indication of the player’s ability to adjust to the club and I wanted the opposite. I want the club to fit the player. This, by the way, was the cornerstone of the fitting system I used. For those about to question my sanity, I collected and analyzed reams of data and statistical analysis was in my background.

I mention this because in occasional trips to golf stores I see potential customers banging balls while the salesperson collects results. The best few shots will be pointed out as “what the club can do for you,” and this makes me run to the shoe department to avoid conflict.

The ending to my failed long driver story is intriguing. I ended up giving the club to a friend who was maybe a 15-handicap, and he killed it!

He thought I was a genius, and that’s the story of modern “technically advantageous” equipment in a nutshell. It’s applicable to some and lousy for others. I realized that concept just 20 years ago!

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. Pingpro1959

    Sep 17, 2014 at 12:16 pm

    Kind of a confusing article Barney…ten years ago I went to a seminar Adams put on in Cleveland, OH where we were told that your new 45.5″ drivers did not affect accuracy…Hmmmmm

  2. Double Mocha Man

    Sep 16, 2014 at 11:44 am

    The “Killer Bee” driver! Ah yes, I remember an older gentleman bringing that thing to our golf course driving range. With a 7-8 foot shaft he couldn’t hit from the bays, too confined… he had to find an open area and hit off the grass. He loved to have people watch him in awe and ask questions. He’d hit a few good ones every now and then. That’s all he did. He never ventured onto the golf course to play a round. In fact, I never saw him with any other clubs.

    • Joe Golfer

      Sep 18, 2014 at 12:33 am

      Wonder where he got that shaft?
      You say the club was 7 to 8 feet long?
      Even long drive aftermarket shafts have limits on how long they are, and I’d guess that the longest the average person could make a club might be around 50″ with a special “Long Driver” shaft, perhaps even using a 2″ graphite extension at the butt end.
      The Killer Bee that was sold in stores was 48″ long in total length.
      The only time I’ve seen a club that was 7 to 8 feet in length was in a show put on by a “trick shot” artist.

  3. Rodan

    Sep 12, 2014 at 9:31 am

    For me Barney’s fitting concept would be right in line. My warm up is stretching and about 5 practice swings on the tee. My first ball of the day is the one I tee off with on #1. My first ball may not be long (avg 250 yds) but it is usually straight. I gain some length as I play and the ball stays straight (within reason).

    I was fit with this driver and it was one of two that I could perform with from swing 1.

  4. Steve Barry

    Sep 11, 2014 at 6:05 pm

    You say this 15 handicapper ‘killed it’. Your name is Barney, starts with a ‘B’. Does this guy happen to be the guy who came out with the Killer Bee? I do remember that club, though I was a young pup when it came out.

    Think about it….Killer “B”.

    Makes sense to me…

  5. Gautama

    Sep 11, 2014 at 2:22 pm

    “in occasional trips to golf stores I see potential customers banging balls while the salesperson collects results. The best few shots will be pointed out as “what the club can do for you”

    I think this is a really important point to remember in fittings. We all know what it’s like to really “find my swing” during a range session, usually after some trial, error, and repetition, or just leaving the office behind and settling into things. Suddenly it all clicks and you’re in the zone and feeling like Hogan. I find the exact same thing happens during a fitting session, and it’s really easy to attribute it all to whatever club or shaft is in my hands at that moment. And if I put that “magic moment” club down and move to another, my mind is already telling me that this new one isn’t the one. So then I buy the magic combo, go out to play, and find that not all that much has really changed – I just happened to find my “A” swing during the fitting while that particular combo was in my hands, and that great swing is now nowhere to be found on the first tee!

    Same thing used to happen with women when I was younger, but that’s probably a whole other confession and forum 🙂

  6. Matthew

    Sep 11, 2014 at 10:12 am

    Hitting 10-20 balls with a driver on a launch monitor can be a practical way to do a fitting. You must be smart enough to logically look at the data though. If you hit 10 balls you should throw out the 3 worst & 3 best and look at your median result averages. Similar theory goes to if you hit 20 balls.

    It’s the same theory as the guy that claims he hits his driver 315+. Yes one time you may hit it 315, but what about the other 20 swings where you averaged 220?

    I would never base my fitting on only taking 2 swings with a club. As a matter of fact, I typically hit a club on multiple occasions over multiple days before making a buying decision. I know with my swing as a 9 HC that it changes wildly from day to day and I like to get a feel for what the club will do on my “off” days.

  7. Alex

    Sep 11, 2014 at 10:05 am

    I firmly believe if you hit a new club 3 or 4 times and hit it ok, it’s for you. Same happens with ball flight, it’s the best judge.

  8. Pingback: Adams: When Modern Day Fittings Aren’t So Modern | Golf Gear Select

  9. Corey Clarkin

    Sep 10, 2014 at 11:23 pm

    As a PGA Member and the head club fitter at a club in DFW that currently does not posses “technology”(launch monitor) I have increased club sales by over 200% by doing traditional fittings that involve the players feel and analysis of ball flight. We are a large club surrounded by competition with technology. The only thing we did different from the past was set up on the range with all of our fitting and demo equipment simply letting the members try the product under a trained eye. My question is this; would you back up your fitting recommendations in the past against a launch monitor today? Furthermore how would you accomplish the goal of guaranteeing members’ confidence in you without said technology?

    • Brian

      Sep 11, 2014 at 5:21 pm

      Corey, I applaud your successes with the use of what you have. I would tend to lean towards how you do fittings, lean on the PGA Professional for flight analysis and information while letting your Members test on a real range. However, like you inquired to Mr. Adams about, I would then consult the technology to back up my findings and “fine tweak” the fitting. I have been to your range, great facility, however with longer hitters, you cannot gauge how the ball reacts after it hits the ground there. A simple adjustment in shaft that could, theoretically, lower the spin by 200/300/400 rpm and could contribute to more roll out and in turn, a happier member. That data can only be found with technology. I’ll introduce myself next time I’m at your club.

    • barney adams

      Sep 11, 2014 at 9:55 pm

      I don’t think you can escape launch monitor data even though you can fit without it. My argument is it’s a tool, not the be all, end all. Members confidence will come from their positive results and telling their friends. Where are you guys?

      • Brian

        Sep 18, 2014 at 11:42 am

        I agree Mr. Adams, the launch monitor should be a secondary tool, not the main source. If all that was used is a launch monitor, Professional fittings would be defunct, all you would need is a “data cruncher” instead of a pair of trained eyes. Unfortunately, I’m afraid that is how things are viewed and how things are trending.

        Corey Clarkin is out of Trophy Club Country Club in Trophy Club, TX. Wonderful golf club with a Ben Hogan designed course and another course donned with Kathy Whitworth’s name.

  10. Stu

    Sep 10, 2014 at 8:46 pm

    From a Adams Hybrid and Iron player: what if i hit five shots and all were good except the second? I realize i don’t have to hit 30 shots to realize if a club fits me but as a 8 handicap i am going to have the occasional miss even like the PGA tour pros (LOL). Of course distance is important but to me straight and consistent are much more important.

    • Barney Adams

      Sep 10, 2014 at 10:50 pm

      In any analysis there are exceptions that fall outside the limits. I used my procedure of three enough to be very confident I was doing the best job for my customers. And the formula wasn’t just distance it was accuracy and distance.

  11. steve

    Sep 10, 2014 at 7:27 pm

    He is right on..I can tell if I like a club with 2 swings every time

  12. nikkyd

    Sep 10, 2014 at 4:48 pm

    Some people are skilled enough and have had enough repetitions with swinging a golf club, that any club they grab , should work (or make it work). I get ya mr. Adams. You said it was an experiment after all.

  13. Johnny

    Sep 10, 2014 at 4:40 pm

    It is only logic and accounts for all kinds of clubs, even in other sports like tennis or baseball. Physics defines that the speed at the end of the lever increases with its length but also does the rotational moment of inertia as well as torque.

  14. Jive

    Sep 10, 2014 at 4:39 pm

    I’m a firm believer you take an iron to a driver fitting. Hit the driver, then switch to hit the iron. If you snap hook the driver, then hit a punch iron shot. That mimics the game a little.

    How do you truly get into a rhythm in golf, with 14 clubs in the bag different lies and shots, and 12 minutes in between driver swings. I like Mr. Adams approach. We always talk about a driver stops working once you buy it. Maybe it was working because you learned how to groove it by hitting 10+ shots in a row. I’m enjoying your articles Mr. Adams, keep them coming.

  15. Tom Duckworth

    Sep 10, 2014 at 4:34 pm

    I get what he is saying. Taking into account a persons tempo and swing speed even with the naked eye a good fitter should be able to give a club to a golfer that should fit them and that club should feel “right” with one swing. I think most golfers that hit twenty or thirty shots with a club would be able to figure out how to make about any club work. Maybe that club wouldn’t be the best for them but you could hit it in the store and get some good results. Hitting it over and over it would start to feel OK after awhile.
    I have trouble telling the difference between two drivers hitting them 50 feet or so into a giant net. They both would feel OK but I really like to see ball flight on the range that is the best feedback. I also think if you see a ball flight that you like that club will tend to feel good to you. I think when most of us hit with a new club how it feels is the first thought in our minds. I thing everyone has picked up an iron,putter or driver in a store hit it once and put it down after on swing because it didn’t feel good..

  16. Anders Pedersen

    Sep 10, 2014 at 3:41 pm

    Definently getting the point ofthis article. I’ve just been at the local store getting fitted for new Woods. I tried the first couple of models on my wishlist, after 10-15 hits I didnt get more than that 2-3 perfect hits. The pro then found another driver made the adjustments he had seen in my swing and data collected, and “BOOM”! Pretty much instant results, my fade/slice was pretty much gone, the ones hit on the toe, buttom – gone… this fitter new his trade and the articles main point “the equip should fit you, not the other way around” is right on the spot for my fitting session. I actually hit the very first drive, with was has become my new driver, right in the middle, going longer and straighter than I ever think Ive hit a driver before…

    Kudos to the author ! (and the Pro @ GolfExpertenAarhus he knows what he is doing)

  17. Carl

    Sep 10, 2014 at 3:27 pm

    I can’t say I’ve ever seen many people warming up fully before testing a club so I’m not sure the second shot is going to be representative of how the person actually swings a club.

    • dr bloor

      Sep 10, 2014 at 5:33 pm

      If your club fitter hasn’t made sure you’ve warmed up before you start testing, you need another club fitter.

    • barney adams

      Sep 11, 2014 at 9:56 pm

      If you’re a fitter it’s your job to get them warmed up

  18. dr bloor

    Sep 10, 2014 at 2:23 pm

    I recently had a fitting for irons using pretty much the same approach. No machines, three shots a club/shaft combo. He’d watch my swing, I’d focus on how the club felt, we’d look at the ball flight and impact mark on the club face. More than enough for my purposes, and with great results.

    • Justin

      Sep 10, 2014 at 11:38 pm

      Well said. Too many people spend way too much time chasing numbers. Even if they could manage 2, 3, or even 4 in a row that fit into the “ideal”, how often are they going to do that in “game conditions”? Even then, would it matter? Flighting a ball for wind changes, you’re aforementioned punch shots, etc. happen quite a bit, and “optimizing” in a game that isn’t played in an optimized environment it is just a waste.

  19. phatchrisrules

    Sep 10, 2014 at 2:17 pm

    I’m not sure if this article is supposed to be satire or not….but….come on? One shot with a brand new club and you immediately are supposed to discard it if the result is less than optimal? Even the first shot with my (long time) gamer driver after a range session doesn’t always net a piped drive down the gut. Golf is hard, and your average player certainly is not skilled by any stretch of the imagination.

    So in your testing before, did you tell the person to immediately buy the driver IF they hit the first one well? I can see the threads now if that was the case: “GG/Dicks/GS Employee Only Gave Me One Shot With A Driver And Told Me To Look No Further”…that company would be crucified. Coming from 10 years in the big box golf retail business, I can tell you yes, we do prune out some shots. However, these are usually the abysmally bad strikes such as a 115 yard pull hook with a launch 0.2 degrees that ended up 97 yards offline. How is that data even remotely helpful in the selection process? Short answer: it isn’t. Now if a person is doing that continually with one club, then we try a second, maybe a third, and if the pattern continues, it’s time to suggest a lesson.

    Now being the founder of Adams, surely to heaven you aren’t dumb. Your product caters to the higher handicap, and then you have a small, but albeit damn good (and expensive!) pro line of equipment. And you know, being a large pusher of distance in the past, that this demand for more distance at the sacrifice of accuracy is a bed you helped design, at least on the periphery. I can remember as far back as the A3 line, and help me out here, that’s got to be pushing 2005/2006, your lofts were markedly stronger than most, and your woods and irons touted lengths at least 1/2 an inch longer than most other company’s standards.

    I’m not trying to dump on your company, far from it, I think you guys make an amazing product. I’m really just confused at the double standard of “Rah Rah Rah distance is king” to “forget distance, accuracy is key, sweetspot is key, and anyone who pushes distances is an idiot” tone I get from this article.

    Any responses would be appreciated.

    • Barney Adams

      Sep 10, 2014 at 7:53 pm

      To start. I always asked the customer their objective before a fitting session. I KNEW distance was critical along with whatever they said. If they really wanted to improve and had terrible swings I’d send them for lessons.
      I stand by my system of the club fitting the player. Sometimes you ” finessed” the situation but I knew the best service I could give was a club that fit them.
      I don’t at all disparage distance in the article. I was searching for playable distance not one or two shots out of a bucket of balls.

    • Master fitter

      Sep 14, 2014 at 1:04 am

      Agreed. As a certified fitter at a big box store, this fitting method would be considered asinine and dismissive leading to the customer flying out the door.

    • Joe Golfer

      Sep 18, 2014 at 12:52 am

      Barney’s last name is Adams, but it was my understanding that he no longer owned a golf company, nor had he for quite some time now.
      TaylorMade owns Adams Golf, and I don’t think Barney works for TaylorMade.
      I don’t think Barney was involved in the running of Adams Golf company for any of the years you mention, so it’s really not relevant to call him out for the club line being built for distance type of stuff.
      I’m surprised that Barney himself didn’t mention that he’s not a company owner anymore, at least to the best of my knowledge.
      He is a very knowledgeable man when it comes to equipment though.
      If Barney Adams is currently pushing the idea of accuracy, hitting the sweet spot, as opposed to building clubs extra long for distance, I don’t see any contradiction in his philosophy since he hasn’t owned Adams Golf for a long long time.
      I wouldn’t be surprised if he hasn’t owned a major company in this current century.
      Perhaps he’ll respond and contradict my knowledge (or lack thereof) regarding his ownership or current position with any established golf company.
      I suspect that Barney didn’t have anything to do with the loft strengthening or the length increasing of irons, whether the Adams brand or any other.
      Let’s face it, there’s a reason they sell clubs in 4-GW now.
      It’s the exact same set as the old 3-PW of when Barney Adams was in charge of a business. All that’s changed is the number on the sole of the club. And companies keep strengthening the lofts such that soon one will need even more wedges.

  20. Josh

    Sep 10, 2014 at 1:50 pm

    Even thought I read through the article twice, I still don’t understand what the point is. However, please let the world know where a 15 handicapper is fitted with a 48 inch driver. I’m sure everyone would want to know so they can avoid the place.

    • LB

      Sep 10, 2014 at 3:15 pm

      I don’t think he’s trying to change the world with this article, just pointing out that hitting 30 shots and only taking the results from the 10 best isn’t the right way to get set up.

      The alternative and more real-life applicable is getting handed a club and hitting it well immediately. That’s the one you want at your 7:20 tee time hitting your first drive of the week.

    • Barney Adams

      Sep 10, 2014 at 7:54 pm

      The point is finding a club that fits you ant it WAS a 15 who loved it. Thought I was a genius !

    • Martin

      Sep 10, 2014 at 9:48 pm

      This was 20+ years ago, he experimented with a super long shaft.

      For Barney it didn’t work, so he gave it to a friend who liked it.

      End of story.

      I personally can easily disgard a club after 2 shots, and generally hit anything well after 5-6 shots in a row with the same one.

      AND

      I’m not that good.

    • bradford

      Sep 11, 2014 at 7:52 am

      I know plenty of 15’s that could handle a 48″ driver…they just can’t putt.

  21. gvogel

    Sep 10, 2014 at 1:30 pm

    Brilliant!

    IF the second shot with a new club is poor, return it to the rack. There is so much wisdom in this article.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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