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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: The Tour Championship

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There could be sadness in our hearts as the PGA Tour season closes this week with the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola. But beyond the finale to the 2013-14 season and FedEx Cup playoffs, the Ryder Cup lays waiting to bridge us to the next wraparound season, which starts a six-week run of fall tournaments before a true hiatus.

Many people get their kicks with fantasy football, but that lasts 17 weeks. Some like fantasy baseball, but the season is overly long dealing with lineup changes everyday.

Fantasy golf is the perfect blend— not too little, not too much— of near year round entertainment. I hope you’ve had fun even when confounded by the uncertainty that is the game of golf. East Lake Golf Club is your reward.

And by being a reward, this is the easiest week of internal discussion you have in making your selections. The field is narrow. With just 29 golfers to choose from (because Dustin Johnson is playing while on . . . personal leave), it will become quickly obvious who the cream of the crop is. You may already be out of starts for some, further narrowing who you can use.

So, who to choose? That depends. Are you ahead? Use the chalk and protect your lead. Don’t let your competitors off the hook. Make them use someone other than Rory McIlroy or Sergio Garcia to win. The odds are significantly high that the best in the world for the duration of the year will rise to the top. Look at what Jim Furyk has done for his season and this late run. He’s too consistent to leave out of your lineup. You’re four rounds away from winning. Put the best lineup of golfers out their and let the chips fall where they may.

Are you behind? Whoever is in front of you is going to play the best golfers. If your deficit is only a few points, pick the best golfers and try to get an edge round to round. You could probably throw one risky element in, for instance, Yahoo B group and be fine. But if your deficit is significantly larger, you’re going to need to think outside the box and eschew the favorites in search of a dark horse.

Your good news (or mine, since I’m behind the 8-ball) is the first three legs of the FedEx Cup playoffs have seen sleepers win. I doubt anyone picked all three correctly: Hunter Mahan (The Barclays), Chris Kirk (Deutsche Bank Championship), and Billy Horschel (BMW Championship).

This is it. Have fun. Win or lose, the sport of golf is your reward. From January in the Hawaii-based Hyundai Tournament of Champions all the way to Atlanta, it’s time to end with the season’s final edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

GaryWoodland

A par-70 championship course, East Lake has a moderate length of 7,374 yards. In its eighth year, the FedEx Cup finale has yield low scores through the years. Zach Johnson owns a course-record 70, which he shot in 2007, while the stroke average sits at just over 69. The greens are fairly easy to hit, but the putting is tough with fast-paced MiniVerde Bermuda waiting to trip up the field. The south has been hit by rain lately, which could trigger a scoring fest if any hits during the tournament. This is a good week to evaluate weather each day, as hot temperatures will dry out the course, but with most everyone in the field going off at relatively the same time, there won’t be much or any advantage gained by certain tee times.

Looking to make a move in your league? Check out the golfers below or even in the ruin section to steer clear of what the leaders will be running out there.

Gary Woodland

Truly off the radar, he sits 29th in the standings, but Woodland has been a model of consistency all year. He only missed two cuts in 24 starts, while racking up 12 top-25s and four top-10s. After missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Woodland responded with moderate results of T13 at The Barclays, T29 at the Deutsche Bank and T23 at the BMW Championship. His putting is the weakest area of his game and that could cost him this week, but if he gets a few rolling in then he could be one to watch.

Ryan Palmer

RyanPalmer

Palmer is on a hot streak. Another whose season has been consistent with only three MCs in 22 starts, Palmer has nine top-25s and seven top-10s this year. He’s coming a T16 in Boston and a T4 at Cherry Hills. His ability to go low will be a big boost to his standing this week, and his statistics all line up to having a solid if not outstanding tournament.

Brendan Todd

A Georgia grad in unfamiliar territory. Sounds oxymoronic, but it is proving problematic for Todd, whose last six starts on foreign golf courses have yielded a high-scoring average, especially in light of the six-week run he put together before that. Todd did manage a T36 at the BMW Championship, but he may be outmatched by East Lake, where his 113th rank in GIR doesn’t match up well with hittable targets. If you’re not close to the pin, it doesn’t matter that you rank sixth in SG-P. But if he hits his targets, well, then his ability to find the bottom of the cup boosts his attractiveness significantly given he now knows how to win.

Hideki Matsuyama

HidekiMatsuyama

He’s 28th in the playoff standings, but Matsuyama has the physical tools to pull off the biggest result of his career. He’s been tested this season and won under playoff pressure and performed well in elite fields, such as a T12 at the WGC-Bridgestone. Coming off a T20 at the BMW Championship, it’s a chance for him to cement his status as one young golfer to watch over the next several years. He’ll need to improve his GIR and his putting this week to contend.

Kevin Na

Na’s game will need to fully come together this week to compete. He finished T9 at The Barclays and has two second-place finishes this season, but will really need to cut down on the big score to win. He finished T17th in 2010, shooting a brilliant 67-67-69 over the first three days before a final-round 76 shot him in the foot. For Yahoo C, he’s off the radar.

REWARD

Shell Houston Open - Round One

When I list the golfers below, understand that I view them as the five most likely to be in a front-runner’s lineup. Some of that has to do with recent form, but a lot also has to do with the entire body of work for the season. Let’s not over complicate this process, go with the best and most consistent.

Rory McIlroy

Best of the best. McIlroy has put together a remarkable season with two major championships and three consecutive wins. But it’s not ended there. In the FedEx Cup playoffs, he’s finished T22, T8 and T5. He’s in impeccable form and the only thing he’s missing is a saucer-shaped trophy and a $10 million check. Tiger Woods has won this thing before and rest assured that McIlroy is staking his claim to the same career results put up. One way to do so is for McIlroy to win the FedEx Cup title outright by winning the TOUR Championship. If you’re putting down money, you put it on this year’s PGA Tour player of the year.

Jim Furyk

What can’t Furyk do even at age 44? He’s already a FedEx Cup champion and he’s got a shot at doing again with a bit of luck. But you’re not picking the overall winner, you want someone that can take down East Lake. Furyk did both in 2010. This year, since a T12 at the U.S. Open, Furyk has posted 4th, 2nd, T15th, T5, 8th, T23 and T4 finishes. He’s finished T14 and solo seventh in the last two years. He’s definitely in the top quadrant of the 29 remaining.

Adam Scott

adamScott

Scott just keeps lurking. It’s a testament to how good his game really is that even when he doesn’t have winning stuff, he doesn’t fall apart completely. Scott has no missed cuts on the year, 15 top-25s in 16 starts and nine of those finishes are top-10s. He won the Crowne Plaza Invitational and since has reeled off T4, T9, T5, T8 and T15 finishes before running out T15, T16 and T8 results in the playoffs. His BMW Championship (71-66-69-66) that he’s getting sharp again at just the right time. While some of his TOUR Championship results have been high, Scott finished T6 at East Lake in 2011 and right now you want him in your lineup.

Sergio Garcia

Amazingly, Garcia didn’t win this year. Or maybe it’s he hasn’t yet. With nine top-10s in 15 starts this year, Garcia has climbed to No. 3 in the Official World Golf Rankings even without a victory. He had three consecutive second-place finishes not long ago and is coming off a T4 at the BMW Championship after a bit of needed rest. Recharged and refocused, Garcia can capture that elusive win and further define a career that is more than capable of seeing a major champion added in the near future. For now, this would serve as a rather large accomplishment for the Spaniard. Garcia finished T9 at East Lake last year.

Matt Kuchar

It’s no secret that Kuchar wants to win badly in the city where he played his collegiate golf for Georgia Tech. He gets this reward spot for his consistency all year and his value in Yahoo group A. While you can easily make an argument for Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Justin Rose or Rickie Fowler here, in a tight group A, a pairing of Scott and Kuchar is the likely leading combination. I’m not sure you’d be wrong with that since Kuchar leads the PGA Tour in top-10 finishes with 11. He led off the playoffs with a T5 at The Barclays before T29 and T46 endings in the next two events. His best finish is a T10 in 2011 at East Lake. I understand if you don’t use him and you can feel good if you’re behind about not doing so, but his game is smooth and he’ll be motivated to perform better given the fan support he’ll receive. The main choice here, however, is security in blocking an opponent.

RUIN

MorganHoffmann

Again, this is a no-cut event and the margins are even smaller. It’s like if this were a cooking show and two competitors brought up identical dishes. The judges would find the most detail-sensitive divider to evaluate who was the better chef. In this case, the golfers below are just a bit too salty. It’s not that they can’t win, since they’re obviously in the elite field, but that they’re really going to have to elevate their play in order to keep from appearing pedestrian. That pressure can be too much for some. For others, they may feel none and just play unencumbered. For fantasy purposes, you really should only use these guys if you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

Morgan Hoffmann

Forgive me, Mr. Hoffmann, as you’ve been playing some fine golf these last three weeks. But you’re a dud waiting to happen. I don’t mean that in slight, only that I wish I had more to go on. I love the T9 at The Barclays, you’re best result of the year. Responding with a T35 in Boston was nice, and I was awed by your solo third in Colorado. But I feel you’re about to be overwhelmed by the moment, in or in particular, the tiny moments within a round where everything can unravel quickly. You weren’t No. 124 in the FedEx Cup standings when this thing started for no reason. Twelve missed cuts is significant and your stats indicated as much. So while you get to play loose and free because this is all a bonus for you, I owe it to my fantasy team to find a better option. My apologies.

Patrick Reed

Can Reed win? Absolutely. He’s won twice this year, but just when it appeared he was heating back up at the end of the season with a T4 at the WGC-Bridgestone and a T9 at The Barclays, he faded. A T74 in Boston and a T53 in Colorado put him in the unenviable position of having little to play for, especially in light of inclusion on the Ryder Cup team. His focus will be on refining elements of an out-of-sync game, not necessarily trying to win. Great aggressive mentality for Reed, but there are golfers in far better form at the moment.

Russell Henley

RussellHenley

He’s a Georgia boy with two wins in two years on the PGA Tour. But the Honda Classic is a scoring course, as is TPC Boston where he finished T2. Henley does a great job of taking advantage of easy courses, but he doesn’t yet have the full array of shots to be able to navigate tougher lies and critical evaluations. That is evident in a T61 result at The Barclays and a T59 finish last week in Colorado. He’ll be out of his element this week, even if he is familar with some of the grasses and weather conditions.

Cameron Tringale

Tringale made the playoffs on the strength of fourth-place finishes at the Shell Houston Open and The Greenbrier Classic, which was fortunate when he was DQ’d at the PGA Championship for reporting a scoring error in his final round. That’s a big mental mistake.

He responded by firing his best tournament of the year in a T2 at The Barclays, which got him through to Atlanta after T69 and T31 finishes the last two weeks. That’s not good by the way and it won’t cut it this week. He has the ability to post low scores, but the fact that he couldn’t take advantage of that ability in Boston on a scoreable course shows how far he has to go. East Lake won’t be as forgiving and neither will his 28 competitors.

Geoff Ogilvy

GeoffOgilvy

The Aussie parlayed a victory at the Barracuda Championship into inclusion in the FedEx Cup playoffs, which also got him enough points to make the top 70 despite missing the cut at The Barclays. Then he finished T2 at the Deutsche Bank Championship, which got him through to Atlanta even after a T36 at the BMW Championship. With 10 missed cuts in 25 events, there’s a shakiness to his game.

Mathematically, Ogilvy has a chance to win, but he’s far from an attractive option for fantasy purposes.

Thanks for reading for the entirety of this fantasy season! I hope in some way this weekly column aided your knowledge base for this fine sport. Hopefully you get the result you were looking for or at least had fun learning the nuances of golfers across the world. My picks below suggest that I’m behind and need to get lucky. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections for this week, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Best wishes, and “Go, USA!” in the Ryder Cup!”

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: A. Scott (S), G. Woodland
Group B: H. Mahan (S), B. Haas (S), Z. Johnson, W. Simpson
Group C: R. Palmer (S), K. Na
(Last week: 150 points; Summer segment: 1,599; Summer rank: 31,695; Season points: 5,515; Full Season rank: 5,305 – 94th percentile)

PGATour.com

R. McIlroy, S. Garcia, J. Furyk, A. Scott
(Last week: 681 points; Season: 10,697; Rank: 3,770)

Golf Channel

TOUR Championship

Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Furyk
Group 3: B. Haas
Group 4: R. Palmer

The Evian Championship

Group 1: S. Lewis
Group 2: K. Webb
Group 3: M. Pressel
Group 4: J. Inkster
(Last week: $606,737; Season: $16,380,392; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 12,853 of 41,625)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. link

    Sep 28, 2014 at 7:02 pm

    Thanks for stopping by. We should try their pop tarts.

  2. parker

    Sep 10, 2014 at 9:49 am

    No billy Horschel?

    • Brian Miller

      Sep 10, 2014 at 11:46 pm

      Pretty simple really, he’s not a risk and he’s not one of the five best. No downside playing so well.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 Players Championship

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On the heels of Scottie Scheffler’s dominant victory at Bay Hill, the PGA Tour heads a little farther north in Florida to TPC Sawgrass this week for The Players Championship. And of course, GolfWRX is on site to get a look at what the players are playing.

We’ve already spotted a new Titleist mini driver this week, and there’s plenty more.

Check out our photos below!

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Photos from the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational

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GolfWRX is on the ground in Orlando ahead of the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

We’re assembling our usual collection of WITB photos, general galleries, and of course, gear inspired by the King himself.

We’ll continue to add to the photos below as more flow in from Florida.

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Photos from the 2024 Cognizant Classic

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GolfWRX is on site this week at the Cognizant Classic —FKA the Honda Classic.

The first leg of the PGA Tour’s traditional “Florida swing,” the Cognizant Classic continues to be contested at PGA National’s Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, host course of the 1983 Ryder Cup and 1987 PGA Championship. The course is known for its famed “Bear Trap,” a three-hole stretch of holes that take their name from Jack “The Golden Bear” Nicklaus, who redesigned the course in 2002.

The Bear Trap includes No. 15 (a par 3), No. 16 (a par 4), and No. 17 (a par 4). All three holes involve water and have led to several big numbers from Tour players over the years.

Check out an assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums below.

We’ll continue to update the galleries as more photos flow in from Florida!

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