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The Barclays: Fantasy Cheat Sheet

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Here we are. It all comes down to this.

While those outside the final 125 in the FedEx Cup standings (or money list) up to number 200 are headed to the four-week Web.com Tour Finals to keep their PGA Tour card, those that have earned their way into the PGA’s premier four-week climax are headed to New Jersey.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off this week with The Barclays, a full-field event, complete with merciless cut. There’s no room for error for those sitting around No. 100, which is the dividing point to reach the Deutsche Bank Championship and continue on for a shot at the trophy and tantalizing $10 million prize.

Personally, I love what the PGA Tour has done to create something so enjoyable for golf fans on top of four majors and another handful of signature events. In addition to monetary motivation, there’s also the pressure for many to perform well in light of impending Ryder Cup selections, both for American and European teams.

The Barclays has served as a landing point for several hot golfers in recent years and been a launching pad for a final push to season’s end as well. The tournament returns to Ridgewood Country Club for the first time since 2010, as it also hosted in 2008. Matt Kuchar won most recently there with a fantastic approach on No. 18, while Vijay Singh won two years prior to that, edging Sergio Garcia and Kevin Sutherland in a playoff.

Ridgewood is an interesting throwback course, designed in 1929 to showcase large bunkers, subtle greens and giant oak and maple trees that will hug fairways. One interesting nuance is that there are three nine-hole courses on the property, but for the purposes of this tournament, the best 18 holes of the 27 are constructed to form the championship layout. It’s a fairly long course of 7,319 yards, which plays as a par-71. Par-5 scoring will be the toughest to come by this week, so be on the lookout for golfers with a solid Strokes Gained-Putting percentage, which is how Kuchar got it done in 2010.

A quick note of apology for not posting a Wyndham Championship breakdown. In fairness, I was on vacation and Montana isn’t exactly the breeding ground for cellular towers. Oh, and I got engaged, so a little rest and relaxation has done just as many wonders for me as it did for those golfers who took off after the PGA Championship.

But now, it’s back to the grind. So away we go, breaking down fantasy outlooks in another edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

WebbSimpsonBarclays

There’s no holding back now. Hopefully you’ve done your starts strategizing earlier in the year and left yourself a few of the favorites to use over the final weeks. I, however, am now out of usage for ultra-hot Rory McIlroy and have just one start left from defending Barclays champion Adam Scott. That means a few long looks at names a bit off the beaten trail. Look, the FedEx Cup has had its share of thrills and challenges from lesser known golfers through the years. From Heath Slocum to Martin Laird to even Bill Haas and Henrik Stenson, it really comes down to who gets hot and carries momentum in and through to the next week. And now, it’s time for a look at some risks.

Webb Simpson

While he put together one of his best results last week (T5) in a bit of a letdown year, Simpson has exactly the kind of makeup of someone who could get hot and roll for four weeks. Don’t underestimate his desire to be a Ryder Cup captain’s pick. We’re talking about a U.S. Open champion on a track that will play just under par.

Simpson’s scoring average is still nearly the same as the last three years. All you have to weigh is whether he disappears again or plays in the consistent manner that he started the wraparound season with back last October. I’m leaning towards the later, given that his four rounds in the 60’s at the Wyndham was his first all season since his season-opening win at the Shriners. Simpson tied for 36th in 2010, shooting 72-65-72-73. He’s a far better golfer now than then and has T11, MC and T15 finishes since in The Barclays at its other venues.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar is returning to play after a sore back kept him off the course at Valhalla. I’m always going to throw someone coming off injury into a hesitation or avoid designation. The 2010 champion, however, does lead the PGA Tour in top-10s this season with 10, however.

He’s coming off a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open and a T12 at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. It seems like every tournament he finds a way to finish under par, which is likely due to his putting. He’s ninth in Strokes Gained-Putting this year, while hitting an above average amount of fairways and greens. Kuchar has a solo second, T38 and T19 in The Barclays at the other rotation spots since his win at Ridgewood.

Jason Day

JasonDay

Day surprised many by busting out at the PGA Championship, especially considering he’d played so infrequently since March and had been plagued by a thumb injury. We all know he contends at majors, but he still needs to show something week to week. His T15 at Valhalla off rounds of 69-65-69-72 provides much more comfort entering this week than prior to the PGA. He tied for fifth in 2010, and has T12, T24 and T25 finishes since. Day has big upside, which is nice for me since I need someone whose talent could fill a void left by McIlroy’s absence in Yahoo B.

Paul Casey

Casey slipped inside the top 125 and at 118th needs to gain ground to make it to Boston. Fortunately for him, in his last two visits to Ridgewood, Casey has posted a T12 and T7. His game has begun returning to form this season, though his putting stroke has been average compared with the rest of the Tour. He’s still looking for his first top-10 this year, but Casey does have eight top-25s. If he can avoid the one round that seems to kill what would have been a stellar tournament, he should gain some points. He enters on the heels of rounds of 65-69-69-68 at the Wyndham.

Kevin Streelman

Really want to go off the radar and hope you’ve found a horse for the course, look no further than Streelman, who sits at No. 39 in the standings thanks to a win at The Travelers. His year has been mired in inefficiency with six missed cuts falling in the latter half of his year, including at the PGA Championship. But at Ridgewood, Streelman has finished T4 (’08) and T3 (’10). It’s a very tempting pick and probably a must-do for anyone trying to gain ground on a leader. I finally surrendered my overall lead in my Yahoo group after the new leader posted his fourth group win in five weeks. Streelman may be the perfect unspecting pick to throw in the mix and reclaim the lead.

REWARD

McIlroyBarclays

When we’re talking about the best in the world coming together for a tournament, remember exactly who the best in the world are.

At this point in the year, you play the best and hottest, especially if you’re in a leading position. If you do get into a dilemma, say choosing who to leave out for Yahoo A between three our four choices, then look at starts and wager if someone may be worth holding onto for a better course. By now though, you should be able to run down a list and easily identify just who is a must-pick for your lineup, if not because of recent play but because your opponent will likely pick them and you don’t want to risk them outscoring you because you failed to use the best, proven golfer’s in the field. Here’s are my five rewards.

Rory McIlroy

If you have starts left, use him. His game is as crisp as it has ever been and McIlroy doesn’t seem to have any intention of slowing down now that he owns the No. 1 world ranking again. Three wins in his last three starts offsets the T56 he had in 2010. McIlroy also has a T24 and a T19 in his Barclays starts since then. He’s first in birdie average on Tour, ninth in greens in regulation and 21st in Strokes Gained-Putting. There’s nothing to detract from stashing him in your lineup.

Adam Scott

AdamScott

The defending champion, albeit at a different venue (Liberty National), continues to impress with steadiness. He tied for ninth in 2010 at Ridgewood and had a win and four other consecutive top-10s before posting a T15 at the PGA Championship. Scott currently ranks 12th in Strokes Gained-Putting and 29th in GIR. His game is arguably more well-rounded than McIlroy’s, since his sand save percentage is far and away better. The No. 2 player in the world was cut in the ’08 tournament, but did open with 68 before an 82 crushed his hopes.

Rickie Fowler

Alright, it’s time to give Fowler some love. My biggest issue is always consistency, but Fowler has been proving his swing changes have taken hold and he’s not fazed by venue or opponent right now. Maybe I’m late to this bandwagon, but I’m also not overly wrong either. He had consecutive missed cuts as recently as June 1. But a T13 at the St. Jude Classic kickstarted a run of T2 at the U.S. Open, T2 at The Open, T8 at the WGC-Bridgestone and T3 at the PGA Championship. His game is clicking and Fowler now has seven top-10s this season. He tied for 36th in 2010, but very recent form is our better indicator. I say very recent because statistically for the course of the year, he’s still average. But the last four weeks, Fowler has really been getting it done with his putter.

Sergio Garcia

SegioGarcia

With six of his eight top-10s going for fourth-or-better results, Garcia has been in peak form all year. The 2008 runner-up also tied for third in ’12 and had a T32 in ’11. He’s just killing greens on approach this year to lead the Tour in scoring average. That he’ll get so many birdie opportunities is inviting. With three recent seconds, Garcia is ready to break into the winner’s circle. A victory at the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs could propel him to the finish and mark the best year and wins of his career. For Yahoo C, he’s a no-brainer.

Henrik Stenson

This slot was a toss-up between Stenson and Justin Rose. Rose has played this course before, finishing T15 in ’10, while posting a win and a T4 plus two top-25s in his last four starts. But I’m going with Stenson for his ability to get brilliantly hot and torch opponents.

You may remember that from last year’s run to winning the FedEx Cup. Stenson is entering Ridgewood following his best result of the season, a T3 at the PGA Championship. While his starts on this continent have been limited, he’s been stellar across the globe and doesn’t miss cuts. Consider this the opposite of Fowler, where I want to jump on-board with the No. 3 golfer in the world before he gets hot.

RUIN

JasonKokrak

There’s a lot of pressure at the bottom of the FedEx Cup standings to perform. Not everyone does well under those circumstances. And to be fair, those down the list usually have a glaring weakness in some aspect of their game that keeps them from being a viable contender. For others, there’s diamonds in the rough, such as Casey, who’s ability to be nearer the top is evident. Here are five to avoid this week as right now they’re clearly outmatched when it comes to this stage of the game.

Jason Kokrak

Kokrak only recently returned to competition after a three-month absence and promptly missed the cut at the PGA Championship. It will be hard for him to make the cut here as well. With a few more tournaments under his belt, he might be in better shape to fight, but the rust should still be apparent. Statistically, when he was playing regularly and performing fairly well, he was bombing it deep off the tee but missing fairways. Without a crispness on approach or around the green, he’s going to be posting above-par rounds.

Graham DeLaet

grahamdelaet

Let’s be honest for a second about DeLaet’s struggles. It’s his putter holding him back. He ranks third in greens in regulation, which is wonderful for this week, but if he can’t hit a putt, it won’t matter. DeLaet has seven top-10s this year and has a T7 at the RBC Canadian Open and a T15 at the PGA Championship. All good, but he has yet to win on Tour. At this point in the season, it’s going to be hard to wager on him versus someone like Webb Simpson, who is also available in Yahoo B. You know Simpson can putt, and that pushes DeLaet into a grouping on the bottom end of the fantasy spectrum.

Michael Putnam

Putnam’s T4 at the RBC Canadian Open is his only top-10 of the year, but it didn’t propel him forward. Instead, he finished T47 at the Barracuda Championship while all the elites played Firestone, then he tied for 57th at the Wyndham after the elites rested from the PGA. Now, he’s playing the elites with a putting stroke that ranks at the bottom of the Tour.

Louis Oosthuizen

LouisOosthuizen

Oosthuizen seems to play well in cycles, so if we’re projecting, he’s coming off a T15 at the PGA Championship and should slip another 20-30 slots for his result this week. He’s another who is struggling with the putter, ranking 157th in Strokes Gained-Putting. He’s a bit wayward off the tee as well, meaning he’s probably not creating the best looks once he does hit the green. Oosthuizen only has one top-10 on the season, and that was during match play, so if you’re looking for a big finish because he tied for fifth in 2012, think again on No. 123 in the standings.

Boo Weekley

At No. 113 in the standings, Weekley also ranks 184th in Strokes Gained-Putting, which is nearly dead last on Tour. Weekley has just one top-10 this season and has missed three of his last four cuts, and withdrew from the PGA after an opening-round 80. His game is far from the form that got him a win last year at the Crowne Plaza Invitational and a T5 this season. Week to week, he’s inconsistent and the putter has far more to do with it than his accuracy in finding fairways.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller.

Best of luck as we start our stretch run!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: H. Stenson (S), R. Fowler
Group B: J. Day (S), K. Streelman (S), J. Rose, W. Simpson
Group C: S. Garcia (S), P. Casey
(Last week: 186 points; Summer segment: 1,333; Summer rank: 26,267; Season points: 5,099; Full Season rank: 3,440 – 96th percentile)

PGATour.com

R. McIlroy, S. Garcia, A. Scott, R. Fowler
(Last week: 244 points; Season: 8,843; Rank: 4,174)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Day
Group 3: P. Casey
Group 4: C. Pettersson
(Last week: $179,909/$102,878; Season: $15,035,922; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 13,713 of 41,353)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. BillyT

    Aug 20, 2014 at 12:27 pm

    What about Watney? He seems to be waking up from his slumber and has a track record at this tournament. Like Casey over Watney?

    • Brian Miller

      Aug 21, 2014 at 1:04 am

      Recent form edge goes to Watney, although it hasn’t been the best competition. But confidence and an in-form stroke go along ways, so Watney is the safer pick.

  2. Bill Tobin

    Aug 20, 2014 at 10:29 am

    Any thoughts on Senden?

    • Brian Miller

      Aug 21, 2014 at 1:06 am

      Don’t like him. Really dropped off after Colonial and a lot of way better choices in Yahoo C.

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