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Three scenarios that get Tiger Woods into the FedEx Cup Playoffs

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In 2013, Tiger Woods entered the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational leading the FedEx Cup standings. Fifty-two weeks later, he’s 215th!

There are only three events left–and just two for Tiger–before The Playoffs are set and Woods needs to jump 90 spots in that span to qualify.

He currently owns 45 FedEx Cup points, with position No. 125 possessing 403 points. The final Top-125 cutoff will probably come in around 450 points, meaning Woods needs 405 points in the next two events to qualify.

Woods missed the Playoffs in 2011. Here’s the scenarios and odds of avoiding that fate:

Tiger Woods 2013 Bridgestone win

Just Win, Baby

If Woods wins the Bridgestone, he receives 550 points. And it’s 600 for the PGA Championship. Either way, he is no doubt in the Playoffs.

A dream scenario for sure, but highly chimerical when looking at Woods in 2014. There’s little tape to go off of in 2014, as the 38-year-old has put in just 20 full rounds of work.

Despite the limited play, we can see that the golf is largely poor. Yes, injury hindered him early on, but in his two starts since returning from back surgery, Woods flashed one great display of 18 holes and five poor-to-abysmal rounds.

His game is in need of an insane turnaround if he were searching for a win at this week’s opposite field event, let alone a WGC or a major. (And it’s probably not helping that he went on vacation this week.)

So, to be quite frank, the odds of this happening are perilously slim. Yes, Woods’ love affair at Firestone is no doubt strong with eight wins through the Bridgestone. He also previously won a PGA at Valhalla, where the major plays host again in two weeks.

But good vibrations can only go so far, which Woods proved when his struggling game in 2010 produced a rock bottom T78 showing at Firestone.

If you’re counting on Woods to win before the Playoffs, prepare to be disappointed.

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Consecutive Top-Three Finishes (Not Wins)

In regular PGA Tour events, consecutive solo thirds would net 380 points, short of the (admittedly, arbitrary) 405 threshold we have set for Woods.

For the Bridgestone and the PGA though, these same results add up to 410, which is just enough for Woods. And as for other top-three scenarios, a solo second at the Bridgestone and a solo third at the PGA gives 525 points, the opposite 530, and consecutive solo runner-ups 645.

In other words, back-to-back solo top-threes gives Woods a coveted top 125 spot.

Still, while this scenario is more likely than a victory, it’s only marginally so. If Woods’ game needs a miracle cure to be ready to win, counting on top-three level play is unwise too. A win also affords Woods a throw-away tournament, whereas consecutive top-threes means the 38-year-old can’t bungle a single round. And it’s highly advised the top-threes are solo, otherwise it gets dicey when points are divided up equally among tied finishers.

Plenty of pratfalls, but this way is overall slightly easier. The difference between a win and a top-three is sometimes minimal, other times quite significant. And while it’s unlikely Woods wins without fantastic form, his game may just need to be in a pretty good place for consecutive top-threes. Save the 2010 and 2011 nightmares, Woods has never finished outside the top 10 at the Bridgestone and just once outside the top four. And his one showing at Valhalla was a win.

Certainly some positives there, but because of the shattered state of Woods’ game at the moment, this scenario remains a pipe dream.

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A Solo Runner-Up and Another Top-10

We saved Woods’ most likely shot for last, and it’s probably the only scenario that is eminently plausible.

A solo second this week and any solo finish eighth or better at the PGA Championship nets the 405 points the 38-year-old needs. And if that solo runner-up is switched to the PGA, any untied top-10 finish at the Bridgestone breaks the 405 barrier.

Tied finishes are trickier. All you need to know is that finishing solo second is far more important than the other top-10 being untied.

Anyway, this is the most appealing option for a Woods fan. Unlike the consecutive top-threes scenario, Woods may only have to play well at all in one event to complete this task. The top-10 can be as back door as the 38-year-old wants it be, with the FedEx Cup standings omitting style points. As for the event where he must be on form, a solo second requires a high level of play, but not necessarily that close to a winning level in certain events (See: 2014 U.S. Open).

Really if Woods’ game shows any semblance of function throughout this week, he’ll pretty much finish in the top 10, leaving him a week to further progress for a solo second. And if his game is working quite well off the bat, that solo second at the Bridgestone won’t be too tough to attain, and that leaves a top-eight at the PGA.

I wouldn’t bet heavily on any of the three options, but I would keep an eye on this one. We’re still in the realm of “significantly unlikely” here, but this scenario gives him more than an infinitesimal chance of reaching the top 125.

Overall though, the picture looks bleak. Expect a 2014 FedEx Cup run without golf’s leading man.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Ray Guthrie

    Aug 2, 2014 at 3:39 pm

    Can he still qualify if he plays in Greensboro

    • Kevin Casey

      Aug 6, 2014 at 5:54 pm

      So, I’d say at this point he’s not playing in Greensboro. He didn’t in 2011 when he was in this position and, when asked if he would do so this year, he was noncommittal. And that was before the back problems he had at Firestone.

      Nonetheless, let’s say he does decide to play there. To answer your question, he can still qualify if he plays at Greensboro. A win at either the PGA or Greensboro would easily be enough to get him in. If he doesn’t win though, it’s a lot trickier. Since he amassed zero points at Firestone, he still needs 405 points to qualify (if 450 ends up being the cutoff as I suggested). And if he’s playing Greensboro he still has two events left then. But it’s actually more of an uphill climb than before. I gave scenarios based on Tiger teeing it up at Firestone and the PGA. With the PGA and Greensboro, that’s still two events but Greensboro offers less total points than a WGC, so we have to adjust Tiger’s finishes a little higher.

      If Tiger doesn’t win, the consecutive solo top-threes doesn’t necessarily work anymore. Two straight solo thirds leave him short. But a solo second and solo third or two solo seconds will get him to 450 total. Again, I won’t get into tied finishes because points are split equally among all of those tied.

      As for the runner-up and other top-10 scenario, we once again get more restrictive. A solo runner-up at the PGA and any solo finish in the top 10 at Greensboro gets him to 450 total. When Greensboro is the runner-up though, he must finish solo sixth or better at the PGA. So yeah, a daunting task here. Even if Tiger plays at Greensboro, chances are slim for him to make the Playoffs.

  2. Bob

    Jul 30, 2014 at 3:36 pm

    Let me just say that I’m a Tiger fan and I hope he breaks Jack’s record; however I don’t think Tiger will win a tournament in 2014

  3. Bob Jones

    Jul 30, 2014 at 2:44 pm

    Why does anybody still care what Tiger does or doesn’t do? Enough already.

    • Christosterone

      Jul 30, 2014 at 3:28 pm

      He has won 79 tournaments.
      Woods is a singular talent of his generation and belongs with very few others on golf’s Mount Rushmore.
      That is why people care.

      • Rob

        Jul 30, 2014 at 5:55 pm

        @ Chrisostetone:

        Pretty much nailed it. You could have also added that he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches.

        • Rich

          Jul 30, 2014 at 10:21 pm

          Not everyone likes a show off

        • Rich

          Jul 31, 2014 at 2:38 am

          Had to also mention that I saw Rory McIlroy play in the Australian Open last year and he hit driver off the 10th. 380m (416yrds) hole and he had 56m (61yrds) in for his second. If that’s not exciting golf, I’m not sure what is. He out drove Adam Scott by 20-30 yards. It was amazing. Make sure you don’t miss all the other exciting golf going on while your watching Tiger.

          • Dr. Troy

            Jul 31, 2014 at 7:15 am

            Just because we/I/others like Tiger and appreciate the excitement and energy he has always brought to the game, doesn’t mean(speaking for the others) that we don’t enjoy Rors dominate performances…or several other players for that matter….That’s what’s always confused me in these TW posts…The avg Joe Schmo fan might need Tiger or Phil to watch the coverage, but most of us don’t…although it’s preferred…

          • Rich

            Aug 1, 2014 at 4:11 am

            Dr Troy, just a reply to Rob as he said that “he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches”. A true golf fan likes all golf no matter who plays. I don’t like tiger but I hate the band wagon even more.

    • bradford

      Jul 31, 2014 at 8:45 am

      Sometimes I sit and watch average golfers from my back porch.
      It’s nice…

      …but honestly, I’d prefer to watch the best player in the history of the game–even if he’s a bit off.

      • Rich

        Aug 1, 2014 at 4:12 am

        That’s good for you then because that’s as good as it’s gonna be from now on.

    • raul

      Jul 31, 2014 at 8:54 am

      Yet you read this which shows that you do, indeed, care about Tiger. Whether you like the excitement he brings or you love to hate him, you still care.

  4. BOBBY D

    Jul 30, 2014 at 1:05 pm

    win and qualify or go home…eldrick doesn’t belong on the team or in the fed ex…too bad!!!!

    • bradford

      Jul 31, 2014 at 8:59 am

      Agreed, and I think Tiger would also agree–but that’s only based on every interview he’s had about it. He always says he wants to be on it but if he also wants to earn it.

  5. Stu

    Jul 30, 2014 at 8:23 am

    As a European, my biggest fear is that Tiger gets a Captain’s pick and is then played ‘selectively’ in the fourballs where he has a partner to take the pressure off his game. So many US Captains have failed to grasp he performs best when he does not have to worry about others. Play him in the two fourballs and singles, a good shot at 2.5pts from 3.0 Keep picking him for the foursomes and he gets the same points, but from 5 giving Europe a couple of wins.

  6. Hellstorm

    Jul 30, 2014 at 12:45 am

    He will be on the Ryder Cup….thats pretty much locked up. Somebody big is going to get left off the roster but it won’t be Woods.

  7. JJ Man

    Jul 29, 2014 at 1:52 pm

    What scenario gets him into the Ryder Cup – if he has 2 top 20 finishes, do you pick him??

    • Jbun

      Jul 29, 2014 at 2:31 pm

      How could you not.

      • Captain Obvious

        Jul 29, 2014 at 3:43 pm

        If you had a brain and did not care what the media and talking heads would spew.

    • Brian

      Jul 29, 2014 at 5:51 pm

      I think a win and a top 2 is the only way he gets in. Tom Watson wants to win, and he will pick who he thinks will win the cup for USA. If tiger doesn’t win or show a great improvement from his last 2 starts I think you pick someone else.

      Also, I think tiger needs more regular tourney reps, I think he should take advantage of the wrap around season and take some time to play a few smaller tourneys to get back into the swing of things. It would be good to have a big name in these smaller events and good for tiger to gain some confidence

      • Dan

        Jul 30, 2014 at 11:36 am

        “reps”……… I love it. Tigerspeak.

        I cant wait until Saturday so I can get another “rep” in.

        Hey Dan, what time is your “rep” this weekend? I have a threesome on the Red @ Bethpage, are you in?

        I hope its not another 5+ hour “rep” this weekend.

      • Dr. Troy

        Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am

        couldn’t agree more

        • Dr. Troy

          Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am

          ***in regards to him playing more that is…

          • Eldrick

            Aug 1, 2014 at 7:55 am

            Can you come to my house and play and I don’t mean golf. I get the feeling you like me some.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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