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The great tennis boom and what it could mean for golf (Part 1)

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Once upon a time, there was the great tennis boom.

The game was immensely popular and growing, and equipment manufacturers were researching ways to make the game more applicable. Some ideas like the spaghetti string racket design produced unusual overspin and were made illegal as they were deemed not to be good for the game. Other ideas like the big-headed racquet were utilized and both professional and average players made them the standard.

Courts sprung up everywhere and many were built with public funds so the game could be accessible to everyone and cost wouldn’t be a prohibitive factor. Tennis televised well so it got great exposure, and academies strictly for teaching the game were developed. All in all, it was a good thing.

Related: Barney Adams introduces himself as a GolfWRX Contributor. 

Young people could also play tennis, and along with learning the game they were exposed to life skills that would help them as they matured. Seniors could play with their age group and adult residences featured courts. Tennis was a winner and it was going to become a central part of society’s fabric. There was nothing wrong it: nothing to impede growth.

And then something strange happened. The game dropped in popularity and the huge force of negative momentum took its toll. Participation dwindled well below that of the most modest forecasts.

Before I enrage the tennis-playing readers, I’ll backtrack a bit. In the 70’s, ‘Tennis Anyone?” was the norm. There were more than 30 million players in the U.S alone and counting. Forecasts predicted 50 million participants. Today, however, U.S. tennis participation is about 15-to-25 million.

Twenty-five million is a pretty good number until you factor in that U.S. population has increased from 210 million in 1972 to approximately 315 million today. Back in the 70’s, nobody thought tennis participation would drop with a 50-percent increase in total population. I’m not quibbling over the numbers. What I am pointing out is that a great sport that had everything going for it saw its participation drop and then flatten despite a huge population increase.

It’s been argued that such is life; things go in cycles and ultimately reach a sustainable level. In subsequent articles, I will outline the loss in golf participation and present one suggestion for a solution. I’m using the tennis analogy because there is some relevance, not the least of which is inertia. All this worry about golf participation might be a reaction to the game’s inertia trying to find its natural level. During the boom years, too many courses were built and now many are closing. Even though I’m on the side of being proactive, I’d be remiss if I didn’t ask if we are reacting to a natural evolution.

I will carefully track participation numbers going back to 1985. The numbers are not good and the demographics, which see the average age of golfers increasing, are not good, either. The question becomes do we (we being the powers that be and all of us golfers) want to try and arrest the decline or do we accept it as a natural order of things?

In subsequent articles, I’ll discuss the situation in detail. What I won’t do is make arguments based on opinion. If I look at a five-year decline and say it isn’t good, I don’t consider that as rendering an opinion. If I say golf is in conflict with today’s cultural influences, that’s an opinion, and I’ll leave that side of the discussion to those who are more capable.

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

75 Comments

75 Comments

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    Aug 16, 2014 at 8:01 pm

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  2. TA

    Jul 2, 2014 at 9:38 am

    I think the popularity of tennis is linked to professional success. I think the American greats like Mcnroe, Connors, Agassi, and Sampras drew a significant number of people to the game. I don’t think there are enough big names in American tennis to draw in, and keep people interested in the game. Without the interest in the professional game there is only the recreational side of the game to keep people interested and hence it has found a natural level.

  3. John

    Jun 24, 2014 at 12:56 am

    I think there is also an urban vs. rural issue here as well. I currently live in Los Angeles where golf is either, expensive, or crowded with long 5 plus hour rounds, or both. Too many people chasing too few resources. My home town, on the other hand is a completely different situation. It’s a small town in the Midwest with a lovely, well maintained muni that has been around since the 30’s and sort of a town treasure. Cheap to play, get on anytime, 4 hour rounds or less are the norm. When I visit every summer it’s like going back in time 30 years. I don’t think these places are too worried about golf’s popularity or lack thereof.

    • M

      Jun 25, 2014 at 11:06 am

      But you can only play your Ohio golf course may be 8 months of the year? LA is all year round.

  4. Square

    Jun 23, 2014 at 5:15 am

    In my opinion there are several factors influencing the decline in play. I won’t repeat some of the valid points which have been expressed earlier with the exception of one – TIME. Men are the players who probably make up this decline in play. In my humble opinion, father’s are more involved in their kids lives then 20 years ago. Do you know how many times I’ve been at the course and asked a guy where he’s been only to have him respond, “we’re in baseball season right now” which is followed by a ridiculous schedule of 3-4 hour car rides to the next game. I shake my head privately and I’m an involved parent of 2 boys. These parents do this stuff for a hope that Jimmy will be in the MLB or secure a scholarship. When most of us grew up we could play high school ball or the local organized teams and half the time we probably walked or rode a bike to a game. Sometimes our parents were there, sometimes they were not. My point is there is only 24 hours in a day, 7 days in a week and I would argue that many parents are hyper involved in their kids every movement to the point there is no time left for a parent to have substantial recreational interests. Maybe this is ultimately good for the kids but the point is it is likely not good for the game of golf. I tell my friends I wish there was 8 days in a week so I could fit in one round a week.

    • marty

      Jun 23, 2014 at 7:55 am

      Nailed it.

    • Mark M

      Jun 23, 2014 at 2:21 pm

      Also, the overly structured involvement in sports most times has the opposite effect: kids get sick of it and quit at the first opportunity. This is a root cause of the decline in participation of a lot of sports. You turn something that is supposed to be fun into work and a chore and kids don’t develop a passion for it that carries forward to adulthood.

      • steve

        Jun 23, 2014 at 4:26 pm

        I think the root of the decline in sports is the internet and cable tv. When I was a kid there was no internet or cable. The only thing to do was go outside. Now with the internet and cable tv in their rooms, they don’t go outside. It is the reason why there is a serious child obesity problem in the U.S.. Also everything is organized sports, what happened to going to the park and playing ball.

    • abd1

      Jun 25, 2014 at 12:37 pm

      helicopter parents…. not good for the parent or the child.

    • TA

      Jul 2, 2014 at 9:45 am

      Some good points about hyper involvement. I have two friends (male, 35-40) who no longer play golf more than once or twice a year because they are involved in their kids sports/activities 6 days a week. Everyday after work and every Saturday is consumed with kids sports/activities.

  5. 8thehardway

    Jun 22, 2014 at 5:49 pm

    Some fuzziness around ‘grow the game’ – who ya gonna grow?

    The NGF considers my non-golfing sons to be golfers because they played with me on Fathers Day. Trust me, they are not golfers. The NGF should find a better term for the ‘once-and-done’ experience for those of us who take statements like ‘the U.S. has 29 million golfers’ at face value.

    In any case, you can’t target a segment for growth if they’ve played once or twice and haven’t returned; 1st tee notwithstanding, you can’t target golfers under 17 who are dependent on parents for golf-related transportation and expenses and anyone over 65 won’t provide enough return on investment.

    That leaves a target audience of adults who have never tried golf or those currently playing and of the two I imaging getting current players to increase their rounds is the more attainable objective.

  6. Dan

    Jun 22, 2014 at 12:31 pm

    When I caddied in the late 80’s early 90’s the rounds were 3:45-4:15 and the course was packed. For some reason in the mid to late 90’s 5 hr rounds of golf became acceptable. I believe courses should enforce 4 hr limits on rounds. If your round is at 4hrs and you’re on the 16th green, you don’t play 17&18. Next time play faster and you’ll finish.

    No one wants to only get in 16 holes, this would force people to speed up.

    • steve

      Jun 22, 2014 at 1:36 pm

      You can only play as fast as what is in front of you. What slows it down is players thinking they are better then what they are. They hit the driver 230 and wait for the green to clear from 270 on a par 5. Or they sit in the cart waiting, then when the green clears they start to figure yardage and club selection. And the course doesnt care how slow it is. You don’t have to be a good golfer to play at a reasonable pace. You have to be alittle aware and be ready to play.

      • Dan

        Jun 23, 2014 at 9:08 pm

        The same rules would apply to the group in front of you.

    • 8&9

      Jun 22, 2014 at 3:55 pm

      Courses were also almost 800 to 1000 yards shorter in the 80’s than it is now, and there was no T Woods back then that brought the hacker crowds to the courses.

      But then again, the 90’s changed everything.

      • Mark M

        Jun 22, 2014 at 6:22 pm

        I don’t think the tiger woods effect or whatever you want to call it was solely responsible. That is certainly what increased tv viewership and increased pga tour sponsorship. The economic boom of the 90s and early 2000s created a lot of disposable income and that’s what created a lot of the bubble of players in golf.

        The biggest problem is that courses are set up too long and too hard for the average player. All tees except whites and reds should be blocked for non-competitive players. Period.

        • Double Mocha Man

          Jun 22, 2014 at 10:38 pm

          At Pebble Beach you have to prove, via a GHIN handicap card, that your handicap is under 5 to play from the back tees.

          • Mark M

            Jun 23, 2014 at 2:13 pm

            I would argue that most courses should take it a step further and actually physically not have black or blue tees, unless it’s a course specifically for better players like bethpage black or whatever. To then play the championship level course you should produce a handicap card.

        • John

          Jun 24, 2014 at 12:34 am

          Standard practice on many courses in the UK where the competition tees are closed for regular play. Everyone plays from the whites, scratch and high cappers alike. No one complains and they play much faster than us.

    • marty

      Jun 23, 2014 at 7:58 am

      Preach on brotha!

  7. cmatthews77

    Jun 22, 2014 at 12:09 pm

    I too worry about all of this changing the game to save it. While I do think there should be ‘reasonable’ public access to courses and youth availability– I sort of get irritated with all the “while we’re young and tee it forward and Jack Nicklaus’ comment about shortening the average round to 12 holes.

    I’m a 6 handicap and while I don’t play the championship level tees often I’m also not going up to the front. I want to line up my puts and read the greens– it’s part of the game that I love. It’s a great feeling when you’re rolling it well and making 6 footers to save par and lower your score. Posting 73 is a big accomplishment over shooting 78.. for me.

  8. steve

    Jun 22, 2014 at 8:19 am

    Golf is too long, too slow, too expensive, too frustrating to play for most. EX: I used to play Bethpage, 3 of the 5 courses when I lived in NY.
    Bethpage want’s check in a hour before your tee time. Then you get to the starter he tells you there is a 45 minute delay. Add over 5 hours to play and the 45 minute ride there and home. It is over a 8 hour day.

    • Joesph

      Jun 22, 2014 at 11:42 am

      Bethpage is an exception to the rule. Huge demand to play there. There are plenty of courses you can play for less than 50 bucks a round. If the courses are doing the right thing and promoting playing at a good pace and playing from the right tees relative to your handicap, the game would be more enjoyable.

  9. Joesph

    Jun 21, 2014 at 9:34 am

    The game will be fine. There is no way to slow down the equipment manufacturers. If you want to play, you can spend a couple hundred bucks on used clubs and find a course that fits your budgetary needs. If there is one thing that I think the USGA and other governing bodies can do is to continue promoting quicker play and start another campaign for the many average golfers who play as though their tour professionals. Lining up 2 footers, plum bobing, 3-4 practice swings etc etc. if you play 18 holes in over 4.5 hours, you doing something wrong.

  10. Mark M

    Jun 21, 2014 at 1:28 am

    We should all care about the decline of participation in golf. I think all of you are assuming that getting rid of the so called “hacks” will result in a magical situation where the courses would be empty for you whenever you want and green fees would drop, etc. won’t happen. The exact opposite will. Econ 101: there will always be demand for golf courses and golf equipment. But the supply of tee times will go down as courses close. Therefore expect to pay more. Or come to terms with playing on horribly maintained courses. If the golf equipment business goes from mainstream (as it is now) to niche, all but the biggest suppliers will survive. So for all of you hoping taylormade will go away or whatever, in all likelihood it would be one of the few to survive besides maybe titleist.
    All this presumes that golf is in decline around the world (the USA is just one country) but all signs point to another boom of golf in Asia. So these arguments are probably moot to some degree, especially in regards to equipment companies.

  11. MHendon

    Jun 20, 2014 at 11:57 pm

    I believe the two main factors keeping people from the game of golf is one Price and two difficulty. Lets say the average person needs to hit 4 buckets of balls a week at an average of 8 dollars a bucket and play two rounds a week at an average of 40 dollars a round say 45 weeks a year to get to where they can break 90 that’s $5040.00 a year just in playing fee’s. Throw in clubs, bag, balls, tee’s, shoe’s, clothes and that’s a damn big investment just to become a boggy golfer which is the best most people can hope to become.

    • randy

      Jun 21, 2014 at 7:33 am

      you pay for tees?!

      • MHendon

        Jun 21, 2014 at 1:05 pm

        Somebody has to or there wouldn’t be any left behind on the course to pick up.

    • paul

      Jun 21, 2014 at 5:53 pm

      I play for under $1000 a year and shot 38 on 9 holes the other day. And never practice and have only played golf for 2 years. Easier course…

      • MHendon

        Jun 21, 2014 at 10:43 pm

        Well Paul that’s the only reason I still play and developed a passion for the game, because like yourself we are the exception not the rule. I got to almost scratch in 3 years playing once a week but for most people that’s just simply not achievable. Like I said most people have to put in a substantial amount of time and investment just to get to bogey golf. A former golf partner of mine is a prime example. He had been playing years before me regularly, and being a man of substantial financial means he had even gone to Vegas and got personal lessons from Butch Harmon and still rarely broke 90. I can honestly say if I hadn’t had a gift for the game there’s no way I would have kept playing.

        • David

          Jul 22, 2014 at 2:39 pm

          I think you forgot the humble part of your humblebrag…

  12. Bob Smith

    Jun 20, 2014 at 9:53 pm

    I look forward to this mans information as well. His experience on, off and behind the scenes business wise and golf wise will bring a nice perspective on this topic.

    My 2 cents on this subject is that 5+ hour golf rounds, the price of entry into the game itself, green fees, attire, and being one can’t play when there is snow on the ground or lighting in the sky make this a less than desirable activity. Especially when taxes and a lot of other things continue to increse not to mention the time commitment invlolved.

  13. Chuck

    Jun 20, 2014 at 9:00 pm

    A theory advanced most prominently by Geoff Shackelford, although Geoff would probably not claim ownership:

    One of the main drivers of the golf boom that really began pre-Tiger Woods, and which dates back to the 1970’s and 80’s, was the wealth of caddy programs at private clubs. Private clubs that to a large extent were built during America’s first golf boom, in the 1920’s.

    Thousands of suburban clubs, each with hundreds of caddies. Those caddies learned golf from proper, though hardly elite, golfers. They learned the rules; they learned golf etiquette; they learned golf socializing, and gambling, and fun. Those caddies played on Mondays, they got competitive. A few of them got Evans scholarships. One caddy from the 1920’s turned into Byron Nelson. Another turned into Ben Hogan. And after that, there were thousands more, albeit less illustrious ones.

    The modern spread of golf carts, like a virus, has largely killed that pathway for young people entering the game.

    • Mike sweigart

      Jun 21, 2014 at 10:49 am

      Wow. That was well said. As an avid walker… I would much rather pay a kid 20-30 bucks to carry my clubs than pay for a cart. Hmmmmmm. Pay it forward?

    • Professor

      Jun 21, 2014 at 10:23 pm

      yeah, i couldn’t agree with you more about the loss of the caddy programs. Aside from the evans scholars, i’m not aware of any caddy programs in the traditional sense. i suppose you couldn’t get today’s yutes to loop a couple of bags two or three times a day during the summer. then again, every generation is softer than the previous generation. i recall ken venturi, a pretty tough guy, talking about how tough his old man was. also, if i recall correctly, hogan’s father committed suicide right in front of young ben. all of this to say, while i do see the industry focusing on the development of golf through youth programs, the advent of the golf cart was the beginning of the end. golf is a walking sport.

      • Straightdriver235

        Jul 5, 2014 at 11:48 am

        It’s the golf cart. That was short sighted on behalf of the courses that pushed them, bought fleets, paved the courses (what business does a fairly well hit shot ever have smacking a cart path and bouncing who knows where, or having to figure where to take relief because you are up against a cart path, or you get a bad lie near the path where the carts have worn it down, much less around the greens? but all of it happens pretty frequently). I have slowly and steadily brought my daughter into golf, and now she begs to go and hit a few. She also wants to caddy for $15 a round, and is almost old enough to do it. If the courses stopped caddies, players should have cultivated their own. Playing in a golf cart, however and unless you are Casey Martin, is not even golf. My argument is we ceased playing golf a number of years ago. Why do we continue to pretend it is? Yet many good courses don’t even permit players to walk. The cart is often free, or you pay for it even if you walk. Part of playing golf is fitness in a fitness minded society, and the population sees the prototype golfer as pudgy. We don’t have to and shouldn’t be fitness freaks like Dustin Johnson or Tiger Woods, but a modicum of good health would go a long way. If you use a cart you are playing another game, but it is not golf. If you are too old and in too bad of shape to walk, then your playing days should be over and you should accept this. There is no exercise walking from the cart to the tee, from the green to the cart, etc. unless you count standing or ambling out in hot weather. Industry short sighted with the golf cart, with club tech, with ball tech, with using golf courses as hubs of residential living… on and on. The master’s greed has harmed so many of us who do not respond to what Galbraith called “managed demand.” We buy great clubs two or three years old, use great balls that are seconds or bought off ebay at a fraction of retail, etc. we play in the evenings on public courses that we can find uncrowded. Core golfers can and will survive, but they are tired of every obstacle being thrown at them from elite money managers.

  14. yo!

    Jun 20, 2014 at 6:52 pm

    Golf is booming where I live which is near a metropolitan area. Courses always booked and hard to get a tee time much less any discounts on the weekend.

  15. 3 putts

    Jun 20, 2014 at 5:36 pm

    I want to make another point that seems to go unmentioned a lot. What is the PGA, USGA and their media partners doing to grow the game. It’s constantly forced down the consumers throat as if its our responsibility to grow the game. Teeing it foward and while were young only applie to current golfers not encouraging thr youth to come out and try it out. The Pga ignores covering anybody that’s not playing lights out and if tiger is playing then forget about the rest of the field, that kills golf. Cause if tigers not in contention then turn the channel and watch something else. Espn dosent talk about golf unless tiger is doing something or not doing something. The culture that tiger is person who matters gets people into golf as long as he’s playing. How about Rickie Fowler. Guy got terrible coverage last year, woulda thought he took a hiatus. Hey PGA if you don’t want the game to die then start looking inward instead of outward! You help the game! Kinda feels like a propaganda add to sell more clubs and get people to spend more to money on the game….

  16. Harry

    Jun 20, 2014 at 5:29 pm

    I agree, I could care less that golf is losing the participation of the twice a month golfer. For what it’s worth, I have never bought into the proposition that golf was for the masses. It is a vocation that requires a lifetime of dedication and commitment. The howls that began in the mid-nineties for the “growth of the game” all came from people who wanted it to grow so their wallets would grow, not because they wished to share this great game with those less fortunate for whom, as they told us, it was previously unavailable. I enjoyed Mr. Adams article and thought he made some valid points, although I would like to point out, Mr Adams was one of the voices hoping for the “growth of the game.”

    • KNUCK

      Jul 15, 2014 at 11:25 am

      OK fair enough – but he was also the originator of the idea that it was about time golfers checked their egos in the parking lot and stopped playing from delusional yardages that were not suited to their abilities. Adams initiated the Tee-It-Forward movement to bring faster play and more enjoyment into the game.

  17. 3 putts

    Jun 20, 2014 at 5:00 pm

    Lets not forget how expensive everything is now. Inflation in commodity products has stretched the middle class thin on available funds to get their kids into golf. It cost money to even practice golf. Much easier to buy a skateboard or video game one time and not have to shell out cash for range tokens or a membership to a range or county club(even then you may have to pay for range balls) every time you want to get better. Similar to snowboarding(which is also in the decline phase) in its expensive to even try, hard to do, and not accessible to a lot of people. Golf will decline but it won’t die.

  18. Footie

    Jun 20, 2014 at 4:51 pm

    Football (soccer).

    • 3 putts

      Jun 20, 2014 at 5:05 pm

      Not in the US anytime soon. It’s even more boring to watch then golf and baseball.

      • US Soccer

        Jun 21, 2014 at 3:49 am

        It’s already here. Duh. Look at the MLS – a new team springs up practically every other year. College soccer is huge, the minor leagues (NASL) is becoming bigger and bigger. If we’re talking about a boom in Tennis, then there is definitely a boom in soccer in the US in the past decade or so, which is also stealing crowds (kids) away from golf, because the International soccer league opportunities are absolutely huge, where you could literally play in so many countries in so many leagues. The soccer moms and dads are making a big wave. Especially when they see that it’s a much better sport than the NFL/NHL type head-bashing helmet-clangning sport that requires so much more equipment, and the danger of the kids becoming severely injured or overweight due to not enough running. American audiences are also realizing that the depth of the inter-league play from country to country is so much more interesting than the limited league play of the MLB, NHL, NFL or the NBA, where they don’t play anybody else but themselves in competition.

  19. AC930

    Jun 20, 2014 at 3:20 pm

    When I was 12 years old in 1992, I remember how great the atmosphere was at my local golf course because everyone in town played at the same place, tournaments were high in participation, and the course was successful which benefited everyone. Once more courses were built, golfers spread out and it hasn’t been as much fun with less of the avid golfers in the same spot. Combine that with the economy and we have the evolution of hard times that Barney is talking about. Until we let some golf courses fail and go away, it will be a struggle. There are only so many people in a given area that are interested in playing golf no matter how hard you try to recruit them.

  20. KK

    Jun 20, 2014 at 2:28 pm

    Saying that a 5 year decline isn’t good is in fact an opinion if the current golf participation is unsustainable. An industry correction could indeed be a good thing if it leads to sustainability and increased enjoyment for the remainder. On the other hand, saying golf is in conflict with today’s cultural influence can be an objective and factually accurate statement and not at all an opinion.

  21. marty

    Jun 20, 2014 at 1:42 pm

    I think golf leagues also hurt golf. Hitting nine holes after work during the week is almost impossible. Leagues are every where. I also play in a league, 3 hour nines are very common. Way more than half the guys are over 60. Playing to far back with stiff shaft clubs going 90 yards. Tennis might not be a bad idea.

    • Bill

      Jun 20, 2014 at 3:49 pm

      Seriously? I know a lot of ’60’s’ that are in better shape than guys half their age and they still pull handicaps under 15…many under 10. Those same old guys who should be ‘thinking about tennis’ are also the ones with disposable income, play regularly and keep lots of clubs open because the do.

      • marty

        Jun 22, 2014 at 8:10 am

        You must be from a warm weather climate. I am not. This Crap weather puts a hurt on the old guys up here. I have not seen the guys you speak of.

  22. John

    Jun 20, 2014 at 1:24 pm

    When I was 10 I found an old set of clubs in my grandfathers garage and became interested. No one in my family played except an uncle who took me to a local driving range a couple of times. Fortunately for me we had a 9 hole city course within walking distance of my house. The cost to play for a 10-17 year old for the months of July and August, Monday-Friday was $3 – for the entire season!!! An adult season pass was $40. That was 42 years ago. I got hooked as well as about 29 others and we played everyday wearing out those 9 holes over 3,000 yards.

    Looking back… we didn’t need a country club , great equipment and didn’t really follow the PGA much. But we had what we needed – an affordable place to play. Make those places available again and “some” young people will discover the game while others play other sports.

    I believe golf is a sport that you will either like and stick with or not. It can’t be forced upon anyone – they have to show an interest.

    • Double Mocha Man

      Jun 20, 2014 at 2:42 pm

      Affordability is a relative thing. My favorite course costs me $45. If they cut that back to 20 bucks I could expect to see it a lot more crowded, maintenance cut back and the bathrooms uncleaned. And the bar wouldn’t stock my favorite gin.

      It’s a trade off. Don’t expect the same amenities for a lower greens fee.

    • Oldplayer

      Jun 21, 2014 at 6:02 am

      Great comment!! Totally agree.

  23. Markb

    Jun 20, 2014 at 1:10 pm

    I wondered if anyone would get around to examining the tennis analogy and I’m glad Barney has. I look forward to his analysis of WHY Tennis dropped in importance in the mainstream US sporting consciousness. If we can gain insights into the WHY, maybe we can apply it to Golf.

    I agree, there’s no arguing the facts of the decline. Tennis (along with Bowling I might add) formerly enjoyed a much greater niche in the public media, and a much greater participation among the youth. I remember actually caring about the next big match between Borg and Lendl etc., now I could not tell you who won any of the Tennis majors, except for Nadal who always wins the interminable French Open.

    So what went wrong? Did we simply get sick of watching 4 hr matches between petulant, grunting foreigners, thus losing our ability to identify with them? Maybe. Do American girls care less about the LPGA when every third participant is named Kim? Maybe. But as interest among US girls drops, I’m sure interest among Korean girls has gone up, much like interest in tennis seemed to shift to eastern Europe even as our interest declined.

    Americans also used to care more about horse racing, boxing, track and field, the America’s cup, alpine skiing and (dare I say it) baseball. Now they care, watch, and participate less in all these sports.

    Heck, maybe we simply care less about ALL sports. Our youth seem to be morphing into a generation of soccer-mom-shepherded dilettantes who shuttle from one brief baby-sitting activity to another, never fixating on anything for very long or very deeply. Mom drops them at golf camp every day for a week, then they’re on to the next camp and never pick up the sticks again till next summer. When they get home, they rush to the Xbox, they don’t chip around the backyard or bang fuzzy balls against the garage door.

    • marty

      Jun 20, 2014 at 1:46 pm

      Hahahah true.

    • Craig Smith

      Jun 20, 2014 at 4:53 pm

      You’re getting closer…

      The main problem is the price of youth athletics. You want to play baseball in the summer? It’s not Little League once a week anymore. It’s private clubs, traveling every weekend, playing 70 games. To belong to a REASONABLE club will set you back 4-5K for the summer, counting travel and hotels and food. You have a girl, too? Expect the same for volleyball and/or softball. The dads in their 30’s/40’s with disposable income are paying for youth sports, and dropping golf.

      • Mike

        Jun 21, 2014 at 10:58 am

        Sound like where i live. North Fulton county in Atlanta. Kids are becoming ‘specialists’ at the age of 10 or 11. 8 year olds go to howie McCann (yep brian McCann’s dad) for hitting lessons and Leo Mazzone for pitching lessons.

        Dads living vicariously through their kids…. Ugh.

    • paul

      Jun 22, 2014 at 10:52 am

      My son hits balls at a net and is wrecking my lawn beside the garage. 2 years old. Loves golf. We also putt on the practice green at a course down the road.

  24. EF

    Jun 20, 2014 at 12:20 pm

    Barney,

    You may recall my response to your earlier article. I was concerned that we were headed down a 5-part series on teeing it forward. It sounds like you are actually going to look at this thing for real, and I think that’s a great thing.

    Looking forward to reading the rest.

    • marty

      Jun 20, 2014 at 1:45 pm

      I tee it forward. I have no shame. Golf is way more fun with more g.i.r.

      • James

        Jun 22, 2014 at 9:44 pm

        I absolutely agree with this comment. Why would you not want to hit more short irons, resulting in more greens hit and lower scores? What is not fun is having to use a 3rd shot to get the ball on the green on par 4’s because you’re hitting into the green with a long iron constantly. It’s an exhilarating feeling to have a putt for birdie and having to settle for par, rather than having to try and save par on every hole.

        Every now and then, I play with one of the pros from the range I work at, I have no shame hitting from the whites while he hits from the tips. I could play from the tips too if I wanted to spend 4 hours of my time feeling miserable, but it’s just not worth it.

    • george

      Jun 20, 2014 at 3:47 pm

      They should charge more for longer tees. I’ve seen too many instances where people are obviously not capable of playing from that far! One friend says you get more value out of it no matter how bad you play… Let’s just charge them more for that “value” and I don’t have to deal with convincing my friend to tee more forward EVERY SINGLE TIME we play golf!

      • kloyd0306

        Jun 21, 2014 at 10:09 pm

        I suspect that you really mean “paying more for PLAYING from the BACK tees”……..

        That simply won’t work – golfers who like to be beaten up by playing from tees that they are not capable of playing from, will still play from those tees, plus, what’s to stop them from paying for golf from the white tee markers but marching to the back tees anyway!

  25. Philip

    Jun 20, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    Question – could you tie the rise and decline of tennis to tennis icon(s)? I think when people are interested in a superstar (or a few over a period) the interest in emulating the stars drives interest. As such, “Tiger” anyone? I believe when Mr. Palmer was hot in golf that the numbers of golfers actually doubled. How about the explosion of golf courses for the more average person when Mr. Ouimet won the U.S. Open?

    • marty

      Jun 20, 2014 at 1:48 pm

      Tennis died in America when Andre agassi retired.

  26. DB

    Jun 20, 2014 at 11:38 am

    Look forward to this discussion, thanks Mr. Adams.

  27. tmk

    Jun 20, 2014 at 11:10 am

    I have seen many articles recently, quite a few on this site, about the great concerns with the lessening popularity of golf. As an equipment manufacturer, I understood that your livelihood could be impacted, and, as such, fewer golfers is a seriously bad thing. As a golfer with no skin in the game, I’m not sure it really matters to me if there are fewer players or tv ratings are lower. What am I missing? Why should I care? The courses I play are well established. There is no risk they will be going out of business.

    • Joel

      Jun 20, 2014 at 12:30 pm

      I think what should concern us golfers with no skin in the game is just how “well established” and safe our courses really are. It is immensely expensive to operate a golf course that looks like crap and even more expensive still to operate a “nice” course. Golf is still a business and if even a well established course starts hemorrhaging money from decline in paying players and increased cost due to water and regulations than I tend to think that no course is guaranteed to be there five or ten years from now. Just my two cents…

    • ca1879

      Jun 20, 2014 at 1:33 pm

      I must admit that the “grow the game” sentiment doesn’t have much traction with me either and I’m also not all that concerned that courses that were built on shaky business plans are closing. The economic and demographic landscape of our country has changed since the 70’s, and marketing the traditional form of our game into that new mix, especially in an era of increased entertainment options, will always be a tough haul.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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