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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Wells Fargo Championship

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Consider this week a major championship.

Sure, Quail Hollow Club won’t have the field, nor the course set-up, nor the pressurized scrutiny that comes from a major.

But when the PGA Championship does hit Quail Hollow in 2017, there will be many a golfer thankful to have teed it up in Charlotte as part of the Wells Fargo Championship. After all, it has every bit the feel of a major inside the ropes.

From its tight fairways, lush rough, long layout and high scoring average, Quail Hollow’s treachery, including the infamous Green Mile, will be less of a barn burner and one more reliant on golf games prepared to handle a major-like venue.

Aside from then-rookie Derek Ernst’s win last year, it’s been a veritable who’s who of golfers that have won the Wells Fargo throughout the years; names such as Rory McIlroy, U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh and Rickie Fowler.

Those with toughness between the ears will gain my approval this week as we delve into a fantasy look for gamers needing to bounce some subject matter around their noggins before making a decision. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Jimmy Walker Fantasy Wells Fargo 2014

Congratulations to anyone who had Seung-yul Noh winning last week. Picking a first-time winner anytime is tough, but it’s made even tougher when the winner comes from a strong grouping of odds-on favorites. That was definitely the case in Yahoo leagues last week, which mostly saw all Group A golfers falter and the C golfers, aside from two strong would-be contenders, came out of the woodwork to score points. I’m throwing a couple off-the-beaten-trail names into the mix this week. We’ll see how it pans out. Here are five Risks, good or bad, for one reason or another.

Jimmy Walker

Walker is still No. 1 in FedEx Cup points. He still has three wins on Tour this year. He’s been a made-cut machine, missing none through May last year and just one this season. And in a weak Yahoo Group C, he’s a cut above when it comes to available selections. Thanks to a T8 in his Masters debut, you can feel confident here. He’s for 3 for his last 3 here with a T22 last season.

Webb Simpson

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Simpson’s last four tournaments haven’t been up to his usual standards, but this is where local knowledge is a valuable tool. Simpson’s value rises, as he is a member of Quail Hollow. He’s performed well through the years here and held a 54-hole lead in 2012 before falling apart and finishing fourth. There’s some trepidation with MC’s in ’09-10. The 2012 U.S. Open champion is one of those rare breeds who can scratch out a win in the 70s, but is also very capable of shooting back-to-back mid-60 rounds. A Wake Forest University alum from up the road in Winston-Salem, Simpson needs a good start in the mid 60s.

Jonas Blixt

Coming off a fantastic first Masters appearance in which he finished tied for second, Blixt takes on a Quail Hollow course that he’s had success at before, such as the T9 he put up in his 2012 debut. He also missed the cut last year. So which golfer shows up? The one who contended recently and won the The Greenbrier Classic last year or one who missed the cut recently at the Valspar Championship and Shell Houston Open. Overall, his scoring hasn’t been particularly low, but you don’t need to be at Quail Hollow.

Brian Davis

Brian Davis Fantasy Wells Fargo 2014

By the numbers, Davis won’t crack the top-10, but the numbers also seem to suggest he’ll hang inside the top-25. Who knows, maybe you get lucky. I like him in Golf Channel’s game where Group 3 is a toss-up. You can’t screw up there, especially when you’re chasing cash. Not an impressive resume to roll out for the season, but he’s 5 for his last 6 here with a T9 in 2012. Davis is 10th in driving accuracy, which will be a big key for this week’s success.

Matt Jones

Last week, I felt ridiculously strong that Jeff Overton was going to perform well in New Orleans. I only used him for Golf Channel, but stuck with Charley Hoffman in Yahoo C. It didn’t turn out to be a big difference, but my hunch for the Zurich Classic was correct. This is my hunch this week: Matt Jones is going to make some noise and he’s on my roster this week. Now, in some ways I wish he hadn’t already won the Shell Houston Open three weeks ago, but it does show he’s capable of winning. Jones tied for seventh in 2010.

REWARD

Rory McIlroy Fantasy 2014 Wells Fargo

Being a prohibitive favorite is not the same as being a sure thing. Tiger Woods in his prime at Bay Hill or Firestone was a sure thing. I wish I could jump in a DeLorean, snag one of those future sports almanacs and come back to you with precise outcomes. After I’d made my millions on a 500-to-1 longshot, of course. But I sold my time machine and now I’m stuck prognosticating on trends, course history and gut instinct. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t. But for strong reasons, these five below stick out as the best bets for reward.

Rory McIlroy

The 2010 champion and 2012 runner-up in a three-man playoff, McIlroy is to me the best golfer in the field. I always want the best golfer in the field in my lineup. If I’m low on starts, he’ll sit until the weekend to feed my cautious side. Fortunately, I’ve got eight left with him and I’m ready to roll. McIlroy has four top-10s this season, including a playoff loss at The Honda Classic. He finished T8 at The Masters and T10 at the Wells Fargo Championship last year.

Justin Rose

The 2013 U.S. Open champion has made no secret of his desire to compete for major championships. But he’s also put in the work to make sure his game is suited for them. That was never more evident than last summer, when he navigated Merion Golf Club for his first major title.

With four top-10s this year, including a T8 last week plus a T14 at The Masters, Rose fits the mold to have a good week. Made his last two cuts here and sat just outside the top 25 in both.

Jim Furyk

With four top-10 results in his last nine appearances, Furyk is the essence of fundamentally sound iron play. He’s also been a strong U.S. Open contender and nearly a winner, aside from a few putting miscues. Has four top-10s this season, including a T7 at the notoriously tight venue for the RBC Heritage. He tied for seventh in 2010 and is 2 for 2 since then, placing just outside the top 20. Furyk curreuntly ranks 18th in driving accuracy.

Phil Mickelson

Phil Mickelson Fantasy Wells Fargo 2014

Back in the saddle after a missed cut at The Masters, Mickelson heads to a Quail Hollow course where he has seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts. He’s never won, but he was the runner-up in 2010 to McIlroy. No top-10s this year for Lefty, but he gets off to a quick start on this track, as he did last year when he finished solo third, which was a disappointment after surrendering the lead late in the final round. His GIR in regulation and touch around the green is getting it done for him this season.

Lee Westwood

Sharp with his irons, Westwood is one who seems to be in the mix for majors but falls apart at key moments. No matter here. He should be good on approach as long as he hits fairways. Coming off a solo seventh at The Masters, he enters confident. Playing well currently coincides with playing well at Quail Hollow his last two starts with a T4 and T5.

RISK

Rory Sabbatini Fantasy Wells Fargo 2014

I got burned on a couple Risk picks last week, most notably Rory Sabbatini, who continued some hot play. I made a mistake because I said it would be an aggressive golfer who’d make a go at scoring low, which was true, and I forgot how hot-headed Sabbatini can be. That wasn’t the course for an implosion. The remainder actually turned out solid. Ruin picks are always tricky because it does no good to point out the Jarrod Lyle’s and Colt Knost’s in the field. So sometimes these sit on the border of conventional wisdom, but picking them could get you in trouble in non-daily games.

Rory Sabbatini

He’s back! I know I’m tempting fate here and if he makes the cut, I promise to own up to it next week. Thing is, I see a couple good results through the years here and I see a slew of missed cuts. It’s clear what side I’m erring on. He’s missed the last two cuts at Quail Hollow following a solo third in 2011, and missed the previous two cuts before that and had a T3 in ’07. It could be he plays well or misses the cut. If he were in a group other than Yahoo A, I’d consider him, but not over the choices in front of me. And that makes it scary.

Chris Stroud

After a strong start to the season, including a pair of T3’s, Stroud has begun to slow. History suggests he will be a non-factor this week an MC, T62, T29, T53 and MC reading as his last six starts at the Wells Fargo. Statistically, he’s hitting fairways, greens and doing a decent job putting, which makes me wonder if it comes down to what’s between the ears. This may not be the week to test that theory.

Kevin Na

Coming off a missed cut where, for all intents and purposes, he should have been a contender at the RBC Heritage, Na enters a tournament where he missed the cut in his last outing (’12), but finished solo fifth the year before. He does have a T14 but also lots of big numbers. This may come down to a comfort thing, but he never has given me confidence to just throw him out there.

Bill Haas

Haas is a Wake Forest golf product just like Simpson, and was born in Charlotte, but he does not have the same local course knowledge. In a way, he’s built for a course like this, and at times has displayed that in this tournament, and others he’s done nothing. I don’t like that inconsistency and I sure don’t like that he withdrew from the RBC Heritage after a round with a wrist injury. I’d rather be sure about someone whose history suggests a strong week and be wrong than flip a coin and hope that a good golfer shows up. He missed the cut last year after being hot in the early season, and missed it in ’12 but did end in solo fourth in ’11. Big gamble.

Hideki Matsuyama 

Is he the next Asian golfer to get a maiden PGA Tour win? With Noh out of the mix, it appears the highly talented kid would be the favorite. However, he still has a lot to learn on the grind of the Tour schedule. He’s missed his last two cuts and has mixed in a withdrawal over his last four starts. He’s also never played Quail Hollow and that could be trouble alone.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to discuss the Wells Fargo Championship or sort through fantasy dilemmas you may have. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: L. Westwood (S), P. Mickelson

Group B: R. McIlroy (S), J. Rose (S), J. Furyk, M. Jones

Group C: J. Walker (S), J.B. Holmes

(Last week: 90 points; Spring segment: 579; Spring rank: 6,817; Season points: 2,572; Full Season rank: 1,242 – 98th percentile)

PGATour.com

R. McIlroy, J. Rose, W. Simpson, M. Jones

(Last week: 160 points; Season: 4,352; Rank: 4,336)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy

Group 2: W. Simpson

Group 3: B. Davis

Group 4: L. Glover

(Last week: $386,077; Season: $8,380,766; Mulligan: $86,710; Rank: 8,044 of 38,667)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Pingback: golf channels blog post | golf channels

  2. Pingback: golf channels blog post | golf channels

  3. WhatDuck

    Apr 30, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    Brian…nice article and well written…some good insight into the players available in the various groups…well done!
    It was interesting in our Yahoo group last week…only three pickers had a player alive in A and only five pickers had players alive in C…we even had a picker that only had one player alive…he did ok in the end since he had Noh…:-)
    So far this year, Yahoo has been a crapshoot…guys that should perform well haven’t been and guys at the back of the pack have been shooting the lights out in various rounds and really killing my picks. The last few weeks I have just gone down my list and taken the first “10” plays remaining players to fill out my group…it’s actually worked out quite well except I haven’t been able to get a handle on which one of my crew is going to go low in a particular round…usually they are on the bench….LOL…
    Keep up the good work…I look forward to reading more of your comments.

    Quack!

    • Brian Miller

      Apr 30, 2014 at 11:49 pm

      Yeah, similar for me too. Last week I had no one in A but everyone else was either missing all A or all C so I not only didn’t lose ground but gained ground because B was so solid and I had Hoffman in C. Group A was particularly brutal last week. I think that’s why I’m going with a Matt Jones pick this week: surround him with 3 good ones and see if he makes a run at things. I’m not sold on C this week so I played it safe. Still, to sit just outside top 1,000 of 100k, I’m pretty happy at this point. Thanks for reading. Best of luck with your strategy!

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