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Tiger Woods’ back isn’t the problem

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I started to write: If you think Tiger Woods is through, you’re a doofus. In retrospect, that seemed a bit harsh. What I really meant to say was, if you think Tiger’s bad back spells the end of his career, you’re a doofus.

Tiger’s career may be faltering, but it’s not for all the reasons that have been given over the past couple of weeks:

Back giving out. Leg causing back to give out. Swing stressing leg causing leg to stress back. Mind giving out. Boredom setting in. Family focus. Tolerance for the circus almost depleted. Follow Tiger’s health in social media and you’d think he was in intensive care. This back thing could be the end.

One poster on Geoff Shackelford’s blog said aging happens to all the greats: And all that is left is the memory of their accomplishments.”

Whoa! Could this be a bit premature? About the guy who won how many times last year? That would be five. In 16 starts. He was PGA Player of the Year… for the 11th time!

No. There’s only one reason why Tiger Woods might be done: He’s decided to be done. And we don’t know that yet.

Listen, I’m no big Tiger fan. Maybe because I grew up with heroes like Arnold Palmer, Gordie Howe, Al Kaline, Night Train Lane and Mickey Lolich, most of whom played sports before your Mom met your Dad and did it with a demeanor that said, “Thanks for paying attention; let me sign that for you.”

Tiger’s kind of not like that.

But he is the best golfer ever. And whether he plays the Masters or not, he will be back with a vengeance if he wants to be. If you doubt that you were the guy that bet your house on the Broncos and are still certain McCain took Ohio.

The question is, does he still want to be Tiger Woods?

Here are six reasons not to count him out.

No. 1: The injury is not permanent.

Right now he will get rest, and a lot of it. Here’s what one medical blog says about treating a bulging disk: Place yourself on movement restrictions for at least a few months: no heavy lifting, no jumping, no prolonged sitting, no frequent bending at the waist. And I’ll add, “Absolutely no swinging as hard as you can at a golf ball after you bend at the waist.” Obviously Tiger is not the standard patient, but when it comes to backs, he’s human. He’ll probably miss the Masters. But I’ve got him in my majors pool. So I’m a doofus (See No. 2).

No. 2: You don’t understand him so speculating is feeble.

Don’t feel bad. Nobody does. People say Hogan was an enigma. Hogan was a four-color, 48-point tabloid headline compared to Tiger Woods. Remember those old balata balls we used to slice open to get at that mysterious liquid center that we all feared touching, tasting or lighting on fire? Well, Tiger Woods is the liquid center at the core of our sport. He makes golf fly. Some of us think that core is mostly anger. Others believe it’s just unadulterated competitiveness. Some say he’s missing a childhood and therefore can’t relate so he’s into golf as no one else has ever been. Or he’s really one of those Quiet introverts who are tortured by the media attention he’s subjected to now and so will never tell you what’s really on his mind. Whatever. We’ll never know. So simply treat him like any other great 38-year-old athlete/golfer. We know for certain that of golf’s 423 majors, only 65 have been won by players 38 or over. That indicates that health and altered focus diminish most careers, even for the best. But there are still those 65. Ask Gary Player.

“You can’t compare Tiger Woods to normal people,” Player says. “In his case, it wouldn’t matter if the gap is 10 years. He’s always done what no one else does.”

If he wants to.

No. 3: Look at what he’s accomplished during his “drought.”

During the five years of Tiger’s so-called majors “drought” from 2009 through 2013, he did the following: Won 14 PGA Tour events, which is almost three a year; won three of his 18 WGC championships; finished Top 5 in the Masters three times; finished Top 5 in majors six times; finished Top 10 in the majors nine times.

This record is, for most mortals, a couple of careers. It’s not overstating things to say that were it not for a very unfortunate break on the 15th hole of last year’s Masters, he would have 15 majors today and we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Jack Nicklaus’ drought of five years (’81 to ’85) came later in his career, after his competitive interest waned a bit. But for the record he won four majors after he turned 38 and Tiger can still do that. Nicklaus also had some health issues including stamina (read: weight) and back.

No. 4: Keep talking. You’re only creating refrigerator fodder for him.

Remember Tom McCollister? He’s the columnist for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution who wrote “Nicklaus is gone, done. He just doesn’t have the game anymore. It’s rusted from lack of use. He’s 46 and nobody that old wins the Masters.”

He wrote that in early 1986. Jack reacted the way I think Tiger will to all of this doom and gloom these days about his career. “I read in the Atlanta paper this week that 46-year-olds don’t win Masters,” Jack said. “I kind of agreed. I got to thinking. Hmmm. Done, through, washed up. And I sizzled for a while. But I said to myself, I’m not going to quit now, playing the way I’m playing. I’ve played too well, too long to let a shorter period of bad golf be my last.”

Maybe Tiger doesn’t read his coverage. I doubt it. My guess is he reacts just like Jack did. He’d like to prove you wrong, unless he thinks he’s already done that enough times and doesn’t want to bother.

No. 5: What does Jack think?

Tiger-Woods+Jack-Nicklaus

“My guess is that his priority over the next couple three years will be to break my record,” Nicklaus told Jaime Diaz of Golf World over the winter. “Frankly, I still think he’s going to break it.”

No. 6: What’s Haney saying?

Tiger may see The Big Miss as a big diss, but read the whole thing and listen to Haney on Golf Channel or Twitter and you hear tons of respect for Woods. Yes, he thinks some of Tiger’s “intimidation” power is overstated, but that doesn’t mean he doubts his overwhelming talent. Listen to him on Twitter:

@Rob_Whatham: Do you think that the way Tiger is swinging is putting undue stress on his lower back, hence causing injury?

@HankDHaney: I don’t buy that

@chrisatgolf: when u play someone better (perceived) than you, it can influence ur play

@HankDHaney: There is nothing perceived about Tiger’s greatness

@MrElculver2424:If Tiger has 54-hole lead at Masters, u think he’ll close it or will he mentally collapse on Sun?

@HankDHaney: He is the best closer ever

I called Hank this week and got a very interesting take on Tiger’s latest drama. What worries Hank right now is not Tiger’s back, the bulging disk, or the Foley swing that some say is stressing a 38-year-old body in ways it shouldn’t. It’s not new aging talent or, as GMac put it the other day, Tiger’s loss of “that force field of invincibility.”

What worries Hank Haney is Tiger’s practice. Or the lack of it. “He’s the best player, period,” said Hank. “So he’s a threat no matter what. But he hasn’t practiced all year! Everyday you don’t practice is a day you’re falling behind and losing ground. He’s not just not putting in a full day, he’s putting in no day.” Haney points to Tiger’s relaxed schedule in December and January “to get healthy.”

“That doesn’t have anything to do with short game,” Haney said. “He’s third to last in three-putt avoidance! That’s feel. That’s practice.”

Backs can be fixed; motivation is tougher. “I don’t think the long term problem is the back. Or the swing. The biggest question going forward is, Is he motivated enough? Does he still want to be Tiger Woods? I’m not sure.”

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Bob Carney is a Contributing Editor at Golf Digest, writing for the magazine, its web site and sister publication Golf World. He’s an avid golfer and a single-digit handicap who has earned awards for his coverage of the industry and recreational golf. He is co-author, with Davis Love Jr. and Bob Toski, of How to Feel a Real Golf Swing. Prior to joining Golf Digest, Carney wrote for the Bergen (NJ) Record and contributed stories to People Magazine and Time, among others. He earned a B.A. From University of Michigan, attended Columbia University Journalism School, and served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Thailand, where he managed to get in one or two rounds of golf.

93 Comments

93 Comments

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  2. clay

    Aug 7, 2014 at 8:21 pm

    Im a avid golfer i work on a golf course and probably golf 3-6 days a week (as i can play my course for free) i have a recorded swing speed of 119 MPH and can tell you it is MURDER on the lower back and i have left the course mid round to go to the hospital due to painful spasms that being said since that day three years ago i have learned there is very few instances in golf where you need your clubhead going 120 MPH yea its fun to hit an 8 iron 195 yards and have it check back 2-3yds but i can just bring my swing speed down out of the stratosphere and use a 7 or 6 and save my back and so can tiger if Rory isn’t careful he’s gonna have the same issue they both have to learn when they can/cant and when they should/shouldn’t swing 120 if they dont he will drop out of every important tournament from now till forever and Rory may be on his way to the same problem

  3. Pingback: The Current State of Tiger Woods | Eye on the Tour

  4. 8thehardway

    Apr 21, 2014 at 10:24 am

    First his “front” got him in trouble, now it’s his back… once his sides go, he’s had it.

    • Dominic Johnson

      Jul 13, 2014 at 1:14 pm

      Ive personally experienced both HGH and AAS and there has never been a question in my mind that Tiger has used PED’s for quite some time. Unfortunately for him as well as Alex Rodriguez they both seem to have had more impressive careers either early on or before they started their “use”.

      For all the Tiger supporters out there, simply post this article on any Bodybuilding website and you’ll find out pretty quick there’s no doubt of Tiger’s PED use. Like a commenter said ” takes one to know one “, well I am one, and I know one…..Not to mention Serena, Lebron, DWade, Dwight Howard, Ray Rice, Lee Westwood, Trout, Ray Lewis, Nadal, Clay Mathews Jr, Harper, and any other freakish type athlete out there.

      Think of it this way….Bonds and Rodriquez were known for their great hitting, good power and incredible fielding….once the PED use began all that was left was the power. Rodriguez and Bonds would have been comparable to Ken Griffey Jr had they not used.

      Another prime example is McIlroy’s “change”. Im not speaking of just his physical changes, but look at how erratic his behavior has been as well.

      Myself, I believe PED’s only hurt Tiger’s game, not to mention the mental aspect of PED use. When you’re on you feel like an 18 year old superman, when you’re off you feel like a sixth grade little girl, and you’re never the same.

      PED’s for some athletes are beneficial, NFL Linebackers, lineman, basketball forwards, baseball first baseman / home run hitters, however I can’t see where it is benefit to an athlete that requires quickness AND finesse….like a shortstop turned third baseman.

      If it wasn’t for the example to young athletes ( college / high school ), who don’t need them due to the overwhelming amount of Test and growth hormone naturally occurring in them, it wouldn’t trouble me in the least if all major sports allowed their use. Look at the modern power age of baseball that saved the game after the strike / lockout of the mid 90’s. Baseball is historical proof that the increase in scoring due to PED use made for a much more popular game. Please all of you over 60 who are still in love with America’s slow, boring pastime can keep your comments to yourself. Baseball is once again declining in popularity due to the lack of offense.

      One last thing about taking one to know one….everyone I know that has used PED’s is never the same ( Mickey Rourke, Carrot Top ). Their personalities change forever, their bodies change forever, injuries rates are never the same, their mental health is never the same. With PED’s there are two periods in your life: on cycle, off cycle.

      Look at these examples with regard to physical breakdowns in the second half of their careers :

      Serena ( are you serious )
      Tiger
      Wade ( Drop foot )
      Lee Westwood ( Off now )
      A Rodriguez
      Josh Hamilton
      Mathews Jr.
      Brian Cushing ( positive tests, and admitted using with CM Jr. )
      Bonds
      McGwire
      Sosa ( Turned white, or sort of green )

      Trust me, if you’ve never experienced PED’s yourself, you should really keep your comments to yourself. You have no idea what you are talking about, and that is not meant as an “I told you so”.

      Again, want proof ? Post a thread on a bodybuilding forum about Tiger and these other athletes and the comments will most likely be short and in an almost comical tone about how obvious it is.

      Don’t believe me, just ask Arnold ( Schwarzenegger that is ) !

  5. Pat M

    Apr 19, 2014 at 11:02 pm

    His back is bad but I also think he has mental problems. He needs to go back to Stevie Williams to get back on track.

  6. Mike

    Apr 19, 2014 at 7:47 pm

    Tiger Woods is one of the best professional golfers of all time. That being said he is also a miserable human being. Treats his fans, his fellow professionals, people who work the event, volunteers, virtually everyone he comes in contact with like crap.

    He is self indulgent with a huge sense of entitlement. He has been great for professional golf, i. e. huge purses but that has translated into guys like you and me footing the bill in the form of $500 drivers, 100,000 autos etc. Those advertisers and equipment companies aren’t forking out those huge dollars out of the goodness of their hearts. We are paying for it folks. Yep he is super scrutinized just like every other superstar. I got a solution for that. If you don’t want the scrutiny that comes along with $100 million endorsement contracts etc? It’s easy go do something else. Oh yea, being a SEAL or selling cars or working at Burger King (whatever you’re qualified for) doesn’t pay nearly as much. So suck it up ,stop whining and start treating the folks who pay you the huge dollars with some respect. Did i mention in addition to being self-entitled he’s a cheater, flat out. Brandle Chamblee is the only guy to have the heuveos to actually express say it and before you start with the lible talk it’s an opinion and even if it wasn’t the absolute defense is the truth. And it’s the truth. I just love guys like you who say “I’m not a Tiger lover” and then proceed to “sing his praises.”

    Personally I couldn’t care less if he plays another hole of golf or not. I’m just tired of listening to “everything Tiger.” He isn’t the reason I tune in to watch the show. I will never use anything Nike. Lots of other exciting golfers out there to watch that at least present the image of a decent human being.

    Oh and by the way a 48 point headline is 2/3″ kinda tiny compared to the 120 or 150 point headlines the tabloids use. You would think a guy in the newspaper/magazine industry would know that.

    • PGAJim

      Jun 15, 2014 at 7:36 pm

      LMAO,
      Thanks for the laugh. Granted, he is moody on the course, but that’s because he wants to win !
      I’m no Bill Belichick fan, but what has all that moodiness got him…
      3 super bowls and 3 more trips there in 15 years.
      Just FYI, Tiger makes a practice of being super nice to the little people. I have volunteered at several tourneys where was palying and have seen him show up early, days early and spend time with the “little people”.
      This is not endorsement related. Its true charity.
      Oh Yeah, his foundation has raised more than the top 15 golfers beneath him combined the past 10 years.
      Be a hater, thats fine, but don’t spread BS like u know it as law, because you are WAY OFF.

      • dksherlock

        Jun 19, 2014 at 5:48 pm

        What makes Mike a “hater” (such a third-grade term!)? Because he criticizes Tiger Woods, a near billionaire, on a sports comment page? Many golf fans are like Mike: they enjoy supporting athletes who they perceive to be decent men, who treat their fans and family well. Good for you that Tiger was “super nice” when you saw him; there are many stories of opposite behavior, it’s pretty well documented.

    • Brooke

      Jun 25, 2014 at 1:14 pm

      I think some of your statements or too general. For example one of his playing partners at his home course is a 13 year old kid. Most jerks dont have 13 year old friends. Maybe he is tired of everyone judging him.

      How do you know he treats people who work the events like “crap”?

      And of course he is going to have an ego. I would like to see how you would act if you had 500 million and accomplished all Tiger has and still be somewhat down to earth.

  7. Kevin E. Smith

    Apr 16, 2014 at 12:03 pm

    “Tiger’s career may be faltering,” Didn’t Tiger Woods win five times in 2013?

  8. Rixirox

    Apr 15, 2014 at 12:49 am

    BS! Tigers hurt. He can’t practice. it hurts. Tiger will always be Tiger. When he is well and can practice. He rips you when he’s well. He’ll be back.

  9. Bob Shackleford

    Apr 9, 2014 at 6:10 pm

    Uh, a disc injury is kinda one of the worst physical injuries you can get. Most of them are very permanent. Now sure, Tiger has literally some of the best medical care in the world, but I wouldnt play it off like its no big deal.

  10. west

    Apr 3, 2014 at 1:51 pm

    Is Tiger getting: “up there,” yes. But this is golf. I don’t think this back thing will be the end or demise of Tiger. He’ll rest for a few months, get some rehab and maybe incorporate some minor swing changes and be back in the game. I think the only big change we might see is if Tiger decides to change his intense “all throttles go” “full steam ahead” approach to the game. You don’t have to practice 12hrs/day, hit 10k balls, or swing +125mph on every drive to win majors…

  11. Jafstar

    Apr 3, 2014 at 11:13 am

    He’s sad his life fell apart after his divorce and that is probably more unsettling than most people have given credence to.

    Now most people are watching him just to f*** up like he’s a NASCAR driver going around the track.

    He’s not having fun, that is his real problem, and not having a family backing him 100% is probably the difference in his attitude.

    How would you like it knowing your ex-wife is probably talking crap about you to your children while you’re trying to make a putt.

    It sucks, but he has to accept the humility of not being the Golden Child anymore. He himself has to find joy in the game or ask his family why they think he should play golf. Maybe it will remind him of who he was and what he was trying to accomplish when he first started down this road.

    • keepitreal

      Apr 5, 2014 at 8:21 pm

      i agree. being exposed would be crazy-hard for an egomaniac to handle. just goes to show how fragile it all is. that said, golf sucks without tiger and/or phil in contention each week.

      • nb1062

        Apr 30, 2014 at 12:41 pm

        Not a Tiger fan, big Phil fan – That having been said golf doesn’t suck if either of them isn’t in contention. I love to see Phil win but golf has a lot of great players to provide some excitement.

    • Old putt

      Apr 17, 2014 at 6:10 am

      Great analysis. You hit all the points.

    • Old putt

      Apr 17, 2014 at 6:12 am

      Great analysis. From the fight and scandal throughout the last few years Tiger has become even more complex. Good job Jafstar

    • dksherlock

      Jun 19, 2014 at 5:54 pm

      Oh yes, poor sad Tiger! Come on. His wife doesn’t have to be “talking crap” about him, what a silly thing to say. Tiger’s children will be able to Google all his escapades. And if you’re intent on garnering sympathy for this guy, good luck.

  12. JP

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:48 am

    “But he is the best golfer ever.” — ummm, really? Isn’t that a bit premature as well? And do we only judge the “best” by number of Major’s won? Sorry, but where I come from, “best” is a term used to define the entire package of grace, skill, talent, humility, respect for fans, etc. Tiger falls short in at least four of the above. Ben Hogan is still the BEST imho.

    • Max

      Apr 4, 2014 at 12:03 pm

      Skill, Talent, scoring avarage, number of wins, best statistic… thats how you measure best golf player. Its not however how you measure kindest human being.

      I think people forget what he has done for the sport. And what he’s still accomplishing.

      Give him a break it not about being nice, or having humility. Its about being the best at what you do. He does not have a job that demands humility or grace, so what? Have you met him?

      Personally a lot of athletes act all high and mighty and well untill the day I meet him, Im not going to put him down for his lack of grace… what are you a christian… come on!

      • Rancho Bob

        Apr 18, 2014 at 10:51 am

        Skill, talent, scoring average, etc. Yep. Amazing. Most majors? Welllllll..

        But exactly what has he done for golf? As near as I can tell all he’s done for golf is make it somewhat more popular, which brought about the NASCARization of golf. That’s hardly better, unless you own a course or an equipment manufacturer.

        Now we have twits shouting out “get in the hole!” on par five tee shots and, even stupider, “mashed potatoes!” People who think five or more hours for a round of golf is reasonable. People who have to mark every putt and align the 18 inch come back. People who have no love nor respect for the intricacies of the game, but want to pound the ball a mile–but usually it’s 215 yards into an adjacent fairway.

        He’s shown himself to believe that he is far, far more important than the game. Interact with fans, sign autographs, etc.? Ahhhh…no, not really. Never mind that the fans made him what he is. Without them, he’s just another guy on Tour.

        Money? Yep, he’s brought that into the game. So the pros all make a lot more and I’m sure they’re happy about that. As are the manufacturers. But the price of golf has gone up quite a bit as well to pay all those sponsorships and the cost of equipment is through the roof. Is that a benefit?

        Tiger has done a lot for himself and for the PGA and for the manufacturers. For the true game of golf?

        Nothing at all.

        • Max

          Apr 20, 2014 at 4:52 am

          I agree I think you should give time for your fans. No doubt, but just like Michael Jackson, one should focus on the music, and not his very special personality or the all of the other weirdness. I think its the same for tiger. Focus on his golf! I am personally tired of people judging a player from other things than ability to play. I play golf myself, so I know the rules and the gentleman-ness of golf. But Tiger is only human. To me Tiger is the best golfer to play the game. He’s not however the most winning or the most polite. THat does not mean however that I dont still feel that he’s the best. Just like the best president of the US is not the nicest or the one who has the least amount of sex scandals. Tiger is amasing at his ob, period.

    • Ron

      Apr 26, 2014 at 7:36 am

      I’m curious. Have you actually had the opportunity to meet Tiger? He has given to several foundations and has a technology school of his own. He praises the hard working military men and women of this country, so when and where did Tiger snub you. I’ve been to several tournaments and golfers fail to acknowledge me. They’re on their jobs, trying to stay focused. How would you feel if while working I called you with a comment every 5 min. A bit distracted, I imagine.

  13. billy

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:36 am

    Oh and if you want to know who stole Tigers Motivation MoJo look no further than “Nike”.

    It was purchased and sent packing the minute he got that huge contract.

  14. billy

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:34 am

    “That doesn’t have anything to do with short game,” Haney said. “He’s third to last in three-putt avoidance! That’s feel. That’s practice.”

    This is what I have been saying all year…Tiger has lost something more damaging to his career than his back…His short game has left the building.
    Other Pro’s love competition with weak short games.

    • Max

      Apr 20, 2014 at 4:55 am

      Isnt he saying that its good. THere are only two people last year who were better at avoiding three puts? I sounds like you read it the other way.

  15. joro

    Apr 2, 2014 at 11:30 am

    It is not about what is wrong but how it got that way. That is easy, swinging too hard as required today is hard on the back

  16. matt

    Apr 2, 2014 at 9:35 am

    WOW… Subject-Tiger certainly sparks some debate, not sure he is going in the right direction with the Foley swing, too much focus on trackman numbers and not enough practice/competition. The ‘never give in’ mentality that Tiger gained respect for over the years has diminished somewhat over the last few years, obviously other outside factors influencing this, but he’ll be back, whether its too little too late will be the question

  17. Jamie

    Apr 2, 2014 at 3:58 am

    Year 6 since Eldricks last major, so just how is he gonna pass the great Jack Nicklaus,
    too many good players now, fear factor has gone, I doubt jack looses too much sleep, no majors since 08, where are 4 more coming from ?
    not next week that’s for sure!!!

    • Max

      Apr 20, 2014 at 4:56 am

      How many Majors did Jck have at age 38?… 14 the same as tiger. So judging bay age alone,,, no problem.

  18. JoePro

    Apr 1, 2014 at 11:50 am

    If Tiger can put together 2-3 great years, they’ll probably be 2of3 or 3of4, he’ll best jack by about 3. If he can put together 2-3 good years he’ll get jack by 1-2, but I have no doubt if he stays in the game and plays mediocre golf he will, at the least, tie Jack. It’s just simple Tiger math, whether you love him or hate him, it imperical. If Watson can lose the Open Championship, by not getting up and down from 65′, at 60ish, I’ll take Tigers chances till he’s 60. I’m sure he’ll lose interest by 55 though. Because he’ll have the record and nothing left to “push” him.

  19. Dennis Clark

    Mar 31, 2014 at 10:13 pm

    When Jack Nicklaus turned 38 he had 14 majors. Between the ages of 35 and 39, he won one.

    • Forsbrand

      Apr 19, 2014 at 3:44 am

      He didn’t change his swing with four different instructors though. Jack pure class!

  20. Tony

    Mar 31, 2014 at 8:03 pm

    I find it funny that his back only hurts after a bad shot, 5mins later he can flush a shot and theres no back pain. Weird hey?

    • Barry

      Mar 31, 2014 at 9:49 pm

      Totally agree.
      Such a drama Queen!
      In the US Open, he hits a bad shot he is on his knee.
      Look him when he drops the last putt, he is bent over backwards, screaming like a banchee….surprise, surprise, no pain.
      PS Mark Calcavecchia has had 8 knee operations, 4 on each leg, and he has got to be at least 40 lbs over weight.
      Doe writhing in pain like Eldrick, NO. Mark came recovered in half the time.
      TMTC

      • Forsbrand

        Apr 19, 2014 at 3:45 am

        Absolutely spot on. Whinces when there’s a bad shot then he’s flipping about all over the place like a floor gymnast when he holes a putt……..

    • Jafstar

      Apr 3, 2014 at 11:17 am

      Yah…gotta keep that Nike contract…. a few young guns could snatch that thunder away from him if they start winning majors here and there.

  21. curtiss mull MD

    Mar 31, 2014 at 5:26 pm

    What the heck does Hank Haney know about backs and the cause and effect of a golf swing! Any orthopedic surgeon will tell you the worse thing for the back is rotation of the low back under load. Most of us will experience back issues during our lives and most of us will show degenerative disk changes on xray by the age of 60. The causes are manifold. Heredity. physical conditioning (or lack of), repeated loads on the spine thru lifting or twisting. I suspect even Big Easy Ernie with his smooth non violent swing will probably show changes by xray at some time, maybe now. That in itself doesn’t mean he has a back issue necessarily. I have always believed Tigers swing would lead to problems later in life. Rest and rehab is the treatment as long as he shows no progressive neurological loss. He will get better but if he doesn’t change his back problem will return.

    • Jamie

      Apr 1, 2014 at 3:04 am

      I have extensive knowledge on this subject, this being I suffered a massive disc prolapse some years back, make a bulging disc feel like a mild headache!!
      The disc herniation caused huge damage to the nerve rootS at the base of my spine causing permanent damage, the condition is called CAUDA EQUINA SYNDROME, permanent pain, leg weakness, back pain,ect,ect,
      now I went to my orthopaedic surgeon to ask him about the possibility of playing golf again, his answer was yes, the golf swing does not massively load the disc, you turn the spine, you do not load it,
      I play weekly, with drugs and heat pads, and guess what, I do not drop to the floor in pain, I can play with it, but hey im not Tiger!!!!
      Agreed he is a sportsman at the top of his game, not out for 18 with his pals, but the issue is the falling to the ground in agony, not buying it !!!
      I still flush a seven iron, I still hit my driver 240 on a good day,
      his problem is a lot less than C.E.S Syndrome,if he drops to floor in real pain, the guy should be in the emergency room, not the golf course, Eldricks problem is between his ears!!!

      • JoePro

        Apr 1, 2014 at 12:45 pm

        Your swing speed is probably 82 max on a really nice hot day with a alcohol, pain killer, ibuprofen cocktail. Try adding roughly 40 to it and you’ll be in their neighborhood, which is on another planet. Your riding a bike, they’re driving Ferrari’s, there is absolutely no comparison. On the best day of your life, in your “prime”, you couldn’t sniff that for one swing. Hell, 99.5% of us couldn’t. They do that day in day out for decades. 240 on a good day?! I think you need to get some unbiased perspective my friend.

        • Jamie

          Apr 2, 2014 at 2:31 am

          Ill give you some unbiased perspective my friend, how many times did Jack Nicklaus walk off injured when the round was getting away from him, answer never!!
          Ben Hogan never kept hobbling off, sinking to the floor, did Arnold ever have a lot of injury problems, Gary Player come to think of it, did he walk off,some people have real physical problems, they get on with it, I couldn’t give a monkeys how fast he swings, the great JACK NICKLAUS seemed to manage ok, for 18 majors!!!!

          • JP

            Apr 2, 2014 at 11:52 am

            Spot—on!

          • JoePro

            Apr 3, 2014 at 8:41 pm

            I was merely using swing speed to point out that your “condition” has no significance in comparison to to Tigers. Nor wood my swing speed. Every era has their favorites, as it should be, but age seems to polish the turd. Every golfer you mentioned had multiple WD’s, medical and otherwise, except maybe Player. Jack alone had 6 or 7, so……..there’s that. Hogan “hobbled” off multiple times, for good reason, but it happened none the less. A lot of that era and before had WD’s because they were too drunk to finish. Doesn’t change the fact that they were great golfers, just a fact. At this point in time time Tiger is tied with Jack, which makes him at the least tied s the greatest golfer ever, a fact. If he gets to 46 and doesn’t have 18 majors he won’t be. If he gets to 47 and has 19, he is the GOAT, a fact. Golf is simple, it boils down to numbers period. People who don’t understand that don’t understand golf, which is their right. But they’re just polishing the turd, which is also their right.

          • Forsbrand

            Apr 19, 2014 at 3:46 am

            Spot on! Couldn’t have said it better!

  22. Puddin

    Mar 31, 2014 at 4:33 pm

    Great article. Tiger will be in full bloom before we know it. Maybe not next week. But, he will win multiple times again this year. Modern medicine at the professional level is far more advanced that what the normal Joe gets.

  23. Brad

    Mar 31, 2014 at 4:30 pm

    Good article that puts things in perspective. Bottomline. Only Tiger can beat Tiger. I recall all the naysayers when Montana when down with a back injury and surgery. Afterwards, he won two Super Bowls and three division championships.

  24. BOBBY D

    Mar 31, 2014 at 3:18 pm

    we spend more time questioning if and when ELDRICK will play, who cares…when he is ready then he will play,hope it’s never !
    WHO CARES…

  25. jbcueman

    Mar 31, 2014 at 1:56 pm

    Has Tiger checked with the Laser Spine Institute? Have him talk to Natalie Gulbis.I just had a lumbar discectomy for bulging disk and pinched nerve.Had a 6″ incision,10 staples but I was up & walking within 7 hours.Went home next morning.I am a 62 year old male.

  26. johnnyray

    Mar 31, 2014 at 12:19 pm

    Great article. It is about desire at the end of the day. All great athletes play with pain and injuries. In golf, Ben Hogan was the supreme example of this after he miraculously recovered from the car crash. His doctors said he would never walk unaided again, much less play golf, much less win major championships. Hogan wrapped both of his legs, essentially unnoticeable under his long trousers, for every round he played. He endured unimaginable pain and discomfort every day of his post-accident life. Plus he chain smoked Camels! I hope Tiger finds his desire again. It would be an indication, after all he’s been through, that he’s regained something beyond physical health.

  27. JohnC

    Mar 31, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    Speculators are of the same ilk who predict doomsday prophecies. They are individuals who are chock-full of drama and opine by rationalizing information in such a manner that they believe it to be accurate.

    The general circumstances surrounding the performance of Tiger Woods has been no different than any other high-ranking golfer. Every professional faces demons of one type or another during their career. Only Tiger Woods will know the future in this regard.

    If ultimate success of the greatest among us could truly be predicted by soothsayers then being at the top would indeed be a lonely place, for it would be occupied by no one.

  28. Craig T

    Mar 31, 2014 at 11:54 am

    Tiger has not been “Tiger” since Y.E. Yang took him down. The rest of this stuff is on the periphery. He was the best closer in majors. He is no longer. He used to say it was all about the majors. That has changed too.

  29. joro

    Mar 31, 2014 at 11:41 am

    Doofus is right Carney, and you are one big one. Sure, Tiger has pains, Steve said in 2000 that he was wearing his body out with all the exercise and other physical things he was doing. Well, it is coming to a head now. That, along with swinging as hard as he can is causing more and more back problems.

    Any GOOD teacher will tell you that swinging too hard is the worst thing you can do for the back, and he, along with others swing way too hard. Look at Phil with hin oblique pain, caused by his long hard swing, and in time it will catch Rory. It is no secret, the back cannot take all the hard torque. Swinging smooth and moving the body with the arms is the way, not doing the twist. Look at guys who have been out there for years with no problems, all smooth swingers with short backswings. It is no secret;, just common sense.

  30. RG

    Mar 31, 2014 at 12:17 am

    Tiger has had a hall of fane career in just the last 5 years. In 2013 he had more wins than anyone else. Whenever you engage in speculation on Tiger you expose yourself as an idiot. What I mean is you are not qualified, none of us are qualified, to speak on what he is or is not doing. Your like a flea talking about what the dog your riding on should or should not do. Maybe Jack Nicklaus is qualified to speak about Tiger and he thinks Tiger will break his records, which really is all that’s left for Tiger. He’s won more, owns all the stroke records in Majors and just about every other tournament. Stop speculating flea and just sit back and enjoy whatever he shows us, and be grateful you were able to see such spectacular performances in your lifetime.

  31. Brian

    Mar 30, 2014 at 10:07 pm

    I think that tiger will get back on track if his new caddie starts to find him a new woman at each event like his old caddie did when tiger was winning all the time.

  32. steve

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:49 pm

    I remember hearing Tiger say the reason he went to Foley was to get better and the swing was easier on his body. I quess not. The Foley move has set his career into stand still. He still doesnt trust that swing. Tiger used to when majors with his B game. Check your ego go back to Butch.

  33. Jim

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:41 pm

    If the Tour isn’t going to penalize slow play with stroke penalties, they should perhaps give Loupe, Na, Bradley, and their other slow play ilk a just below terminal dose of Ritalin along with an exemption for that drug if tested.

    Agonizing enough having to watch them, think about the poor pros that have endure their fatal slowness and the effect on their game. ENOUGH ALREADY, Finchem !!!!

    • JohSte

      Apr 1, 2014 at 5:53 am

      I timed Loupe on one putt it took him 38 seconds from the time he took away his marker to actually putting the ball.
      Jim maybe those 3 you mentioned do need to a meth dealer who is a reliable source!!!
      Big pharma not good with that stuff.

  34. MHendon

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:13 pm

    I don’t know if it was Johnny Miller or which ever commentator, but I remember one of them saying the only golfer who practiced more than Vijay Singh was Tiger Woods. Practice makes perfect but as we get older that wear and tear from our youth begins to catch up with us. His single minded focus to be the best ever has worn out the rest of him. More than likely the next ten years will have moments of brilliance while he is briefly feeling good followed by extended periods of mediocrity while he nurses another injury.

  35. Jason Sobal

    Mar 30, 2014 at 8:55 pm

    Cant help but wonder if he regrets lifting so much and playing that U.S. Open at Torrey Pines on the broken leg? It seems like his body made major compensations that are now causing him to have a chain reaction of other problems.

  36. Jon

    Mar 30, 2014 at 8:48 pm

    Why has nobody looked at LaCava? The man is a walking golf cart with sky caddie. At least Williams had some emotion.

  37. letsbehonest

    Mar 30, 2014 at 6:23 pm

    He needs some “blood spinning.” If you believe Tiger wasn’t juicing your nuts.

  38. Snowman

    Mar 30, 2014 at 11:56 am

    Nothing will stop Tiger EXCEPT Health Issues and he definitely has some. How bad are they? We don’t really know and he ain’t talking. Barring a true career ending injury, he could be competitive into his mid 50’s (as was Hogan) so he may have ~60 more chances to win 5 majors… but if he gets to 17, the pressure will be massive. I’m hoping we get to see it.

    • letsbehonest

      Mar 30, 2014 at 3:31 pm

      Tiger’s pursuit of Jack ended when the PGA Tour started drug testing. It’s not a coincidence that Tiger’s body has broken down without steroids. Majors are more physically demanding and without steroids, Tiger’s body can’t handle the rigor of competing at these venues for 4 days/4 times a year. If Tiger wins another major (doubtful) it’s because he and his doctors have figured out a way to circumvent the current drug testing.

      • Justin

        Mar 30, 2014 at 10:02 pm

        I wouldn’t go so far as to say that he used steroids. However, his body is definitely feeling the wear and tear of the intense weight training, and the marine training he went through. Don’t get me wrong, he pretty much invented the modern power game, but all the time lifting definitely is giving him problems now.

        • RG

          Mar 31, 2014 at 12:07 am

          Ask Gary Player what he thinks about lifting heavy weights.

          • keepitreal

            Apr 5, 2014 at 8:18 pm

            he kissed nelson mandela’s feet…his opinions are worthless

  39. Pugster22

    Mar 30, 2014 at 9:28 am

    Tiger has more “wear and tear” on his body than any other professional golfer on the planet…and it is catching up to him.
    He was on TV at a very young age and has been hitting balls and playing competitive golf since three. (?)
    The amount of tournaments that Tiger played since his early youth were not available to Arnold, Jack, Player, Trevino, Floyd.
    His body is about 8 to 10 years older than his age.

    Any thoughts????

    • mark b

      Apr 1, 2014 at 12:21 am

      I’d have to check the stats, but I’m pretty sure that Jack, Arnie, Lee and Ray did not play a lowly 16 to 18 tournaments per year. Tiger has played the absolute minimum for most of his career — with a few paid foreign appearances thrown in for giggles. If there is wear on him, it’s not coming from a rigorous golf schedule.

    • bestman

      Apr 22, 2014 at 1:22 am

      once you are in pain,you are always.it installs itself in your mind & stays there forever even when you play a painless round.your mind is always alert & affraid it will come back,diminish your capabilities & worse make you unfit for the game to continue as it has been & brought yuo so much fame.being second is difficult.still he’s number one in the world.
      i don’t think even a psy can get it out.and as tiger has played since so many years tear & wear are part of his condition.so lets focuss on the new guys with hughe capabilites and not let tiger’s pain ruin our pleasure.i went recently from right hand play to left hand due to pain on the right side & it works( i am left hander in fact but did not realise) my focus goes to bubba now more than mickelson who is a “fake lefthander”(sorry )its like being left handed in tennis,there is always something special for us in comparison with others & last friday i beat a guy who thought it would be impossible playing left hand.with this change my game is back.my fun in the game is back.tiger should think about changing the way he trains & be more relaxed & refocus towards his capabilities he had in the beginning .how is his life with vonn?we don’t hear anything??

  40. mark b

    Mar 30, 2014 at 2:14 am

    Please come back Tiger. We need you. I can imagine no worse afternoon of Golf on TV than having to watch Kevin Na and Andrew Loupe fidget their way to the top of a leaderboard. Check that — add in the old spitting Keegan Bradley and you have the death of the PGA.

  41. JonathanBilbo

    Mar 29, 2014 at 10:47 pm

    I’m pretty sure he is just wore down from having to carry the TOUR for all these years. He is human and maybe he just wants to be ordinary like the other golfers and not have to deal with circus that surrounds him all the time. He should retire for a year or two and see if he still wants to play, you can see it in his face every round now that he is just drained. Jordan retired and came back so ….

  42. thefullsp

    Mar 29, 2014 at 10:20 pm

    It was regularly written that he used to do 2 hours of yoga every day. Wonder if he still does…?

  43. Sean

    Mar 29, 2014 at 9:39 pm

    Time will tell. Thanks Bob.

  44. DJ

    Mar 29, 2014 at 9:15 pm

    Tiger needs to go back to the Scotty

    • Jerret

      Mar 30, 2014 at 11:28 am

      Best WRX comment I’ve seen! Couldn’t have said it better, when it was in his hands….Game, Set, Match!

    • CJ haws

      Mar 30, 2014 at 2:56 pm

      Amen! Been saying it for years. He has the “Scotty” curse during the majors…

  45. John

    Mar 29, 2014 at 6:37 pm

    Good article Bob. I hope Tiger gets back to contention on Sundays ‘cos it is boring to watch all these slow players like Loupe and Na and probably others to ruin the game to watch! I quit watching basketball after Jordan retired, football after Elway retired and i sure will quit watching golf after Tiger quits!! It ain’t worth it for me to watch mediocre !!!

  46. Roger

    Mar 29, 2014 at 5:52 pm

    Bob, thanks for an article with real depth and insight and no bashing!

  47. froneputt

    Mar 29, 2014 at 5:39 pm

    Agree with the author, and for once, with Haney.

  48. getitclose

    Mar 29, 2014 at 5:21 pm

    Best article I’ve read on here. I’m a little biased because Tiger is my idol and always will be. But this article is an unbiased, honest, well written example of what is going on. It’s not throwing absurd comments around like “Tigers done” and “What’s wrong with Tiger? Is he quitting”. Lord knows there isn’t a whole lot of us Tiger enthusiast around anymore, but to say he wasn’t that great or to say he isn’t that great is indeed, absurd!

    Great read! Keep it up…

  49. Large chris

    Mar 29, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    Totally agree with this article. Tigers desire has lessened a little the last few months, and when he wasn’t contending in some tourneys last year he looked worn out. If he gets the desire back then he will win more majors.

  50. GolferX

    Mar 29, 2014 at 2:32 pm

    Actually, that pulled hamstring was 25 years ago. And the throbbing from the change in barometric pressure woke me up this morning. Don’t get old, boys– Ben Hogan.

  51. GolferX

    Mar 29, 2014 at 2:29 pm

    Only Tiger can answer the questions posed by your article, Bob. The problem is that we don’t really know the extent of the damage caused by his leg injury. As someone, who suffered a serious pulled hamstring in my mid-thirties, I can tell you that 20 years later, the damage continues to confound me to this day. The body is meant to break down and for an athlete, the slightest diminution of ability is devastating.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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