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The 23 Players Who Can Win The Masters

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Last year, I created a filter to help predict the golfers that were most likely to win the Masters. I got the list down to 23 players. In the end, eight of the top-10 finishers were on that list of 23 players that included the eventual winner Adam Scott and runner-up Angel Cabrera.

Before I discuss my picks of this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes versus the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in score exists. Going into last year, the critical holes were Nos. 7, 12, 15, 17 and 18. However, after last year, the data is trending differently and now the critical holes are Nos. 7, 12, 13 and 18. With the Eisenhower Tree and some other trees down after the winter storms this year, I would suspect that No. 17 will be easier and it may be a long time before the 17th is a critical hole at the Masters again. Either way, I would watch out for this new set of critical holes as the tournament goes along.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the past champions who are well past their time being competitive and the amateurs.

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (amateur)
  • Oliver Goss (amateur)
  • Chang-Woo Lee (amateur)
  • Michael McCoy (amateur)
  • Jordan Niebrugge (amateur)
  • Garrick Porteous (amateur)
  • Fred Couples (past champion)
  • Ben Crenshaw (past champion)
  • Bernhard Langer (past champion)
  • Sandy Lyle (past champion)
  • Mark O’Meara (past champion)
  • Larry Mize (past champion)
  • Jose Maria Olazabal (past champion)
  • Craig Stadler (past champion)
  • Tom Watson (past champion)
  • Mike Weir (past champion)
  • Ian Woosnam (past champion)

I also eliminated any first time invitees, as the only first time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

  • Jonas Blixt
  • Steven Bowditch
  • Roberto Castro
  • Brendon de Jonge
  • Graham DeLaet
  • Victor Dubuisson
  • Harris English
  • Derek Ernst
  • Matt Every
  • Steven Gallacher
  • Billy Horschel
  • Matt Jones
  • Chris Kirk
  • Joost Luiten
  • Patrick Reed
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Kevin Stadler
  • Jimmy Walker

I will say that this group of 1st time invitees is one of the strongest in recent memory with golfers like Bowditch, DeLaet, English, Ernst, Every, Horschel, Jones, Kirk, Reed, Spieth, Stadler and Walker all appearing to be good fits for Augusta National. So, if there is ever a year where somebody may break the first time invitee curse, this is it.

I also eliminated the players who missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open this week because historically the odds of a player missing the cut the previous week and winning the next week are extremely slim. Those players include:

  • Darren Clarke
  • Peter Hanson
  • Trevor Immelman
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Martin Kaymer
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Ian Poulter
  • Scott Stallings
  • Kevin Streelman

I also eliminated John Senden, as he has only made the cut once in three tries Augusta and the odds of winning go way down for golfers that have struggled to make the cut at the course.

I also filtered out the European and Asian players on which I do not have substantial data:

  • Francesco Molinari
  • Thongchai Jaidee
  • Thomas Bjorn
  • Jamie Donaldson
  • Thorbjorn Olesen

Over the past 10 years, Augusta National has heavily favored longer hitters that hit the ball high and well from what I call ‘”The Danger Zone.” The Danger Zone is all approach shots from 175-to-225 yards, and it is biggest key to Augusta National, because without quality Danger Zone play at the Masters the golfer will not be successful.

While Augusta National is known for its greens, the make percentage on putts is fairly high from inside 15 feet; likely due to the excellent putting surfaces. The real difficulty on the greens at Augusta is from longer than 20 feet away. Between the undulations and the super-fast green speed, it becomes a task to not three-putt the long ones at Augusta. The big reason why long hitters do so well at Augusta now is that the course plays like a par 68 for them, and that allows them to get away with putting worse. So, if a player is not long, they had better bring good putting and Danger Zone play with them.

Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:

  • Tim Clark
  • Jim Furyk
  • Zach Johnson
  • David Lynn
  • KJ Choi

While Zach Johnson is a previous champion, he also won in a year where there were record low temperatures. This helped Johnson because the longer hitters could not play the par-5’s like a par-4 and that shifted the advantage toward him and his excellent wedge play. Unless there are either cold or wet conditions, I highly doubt the players I just listed stand much of a chance of winning.

I’ve also taken out the low-ball hitters off my list of potential winners. They include:

  • Sang-Moon Bae
  • Jason Dufner
  • Ken Duke
  • Branden Grace
  • Miguel Jimenez
  • Matteo Manassero
  • Graeme McDowell
  • D.A. Points
  • Boo Weekley
  • Y.E. Yang

That leads me to filtering out the last group of players who have struggled from the Danger Zone this year. They are:

  • Lucas Glover
  • Ernie Els
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Bill Haas
  • Russell Henley
  • John Huh
  • Ryan Moore
  • Webb Simpson
  • Lee Westwood

That leaves me with the 23 players who can win the Masters. They are listed alphabetically.

  1. Keegan Bradley
  2. Angel Cabrera
  3. Stewart Cink
  4. Jason Day
  5. Luke Donald
  6. Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
  7. Sergio Garcia
  8. Matt Kuchar
  9. Marc Leishman
  10. Hunter Mahan
  11. Hideki Matsuyama
  12. Rory McIlroy
  13. Phil Mickelson
  14. Justin Rose
  15. Charl Schwartzel
  16. Adam Scott
  17. Vijay Singh
  18. Brandt Snedeker
  19. Henrik Stenson
  20. Steve Stricker
  21. Nick Watney
  22. Bubba Watson
  23. Gary Woodland

Of those 23 players, here are my top-10 picks to win The Masters:

  • Rory McIlroy (9/1)*
  • Adam Scott (9/1)
  • Phil Mickelson (11/1)
  • Jason Day (14/1)
  • Matt Kuchar (20/1)
  • Bubba Watson (25/1)
  • Justin Rose (28/1)
  • Brandt Snedeker (33/1)
  • Keegan Bradley (33/1)
  • Marc Leishman (100/1)

*Odds from Bovada accurate as of 4/7/14 at 11 a.m.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

86 Comments

86 Comments

  1. In Ly Nhua Nap Cau

    Jan 2, 2019 at 10:46 am

    Very informative and interesting article. Well done.

    Love Leishman as a surprise pick.

  2. mua c?n h? safira khang ?i?n

    Aug 25, 2018 at 4:13 am

    Very informative and interesting article. Well done.
    Love Leishman as a surprise pick.

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    Oct 8, 2014 at 4:39 am

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    • c?n h? sapphire

      Jul 11, 2018 at 12:55 pm

      thought this was a great read and the more i read it the more i liked it . this week its so falling to place that rory ,phil and adam scott are the three to watch but if you want a hint of form –bradley ,scott and big phil are the three that you should take a dart and stick the wage packet on one of them

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  6. Bubba W., Orlando

    Apr 14, 2014 at 6:40 pm

    Great performances by Spieth, Blixt, Kuchar and Langer

    • Bubba W., Orlando

      Apr 14, 2014 at 6:43 pm

      btw, isnt it amazing to see Langer and Couples still doing so well against the young guns?

  7. DavePelz4

    Apr 14, 2014 at 5:35 pm

    Technically, there have been 3 first time winners. Horton Smith won the very first Invitational tournament held at ANGC. Gene Sarazen also was a winner in his first tournament.

  8. cole

    Apr 13, 2014 at 8:33 pm

    Nice Top tens. Picking three of ten seems good to me!

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 14, 2014 at 1:38 pm

      Thanks. The winner was more important to me. The editor, Zak, asked me who I had and I picked Bubba.

      I also stated that I thought this was the best group of 1st time invitees we had since I can remember. I think the 1st time invitee curse is mostly due to the hoopla and hysteria of going to the Masters for the first time. Even if you’ve played the course before, the actual tournament is a different story. I think the other part behind the curse is that there is a lot of pressure of winning the Masters for the first time combined with the likelihood of it being your first major championship victory.

  9. bigbadbullfrog

    Apr 11, 2014 at 11:38 am

    “Keegan Bradley has a major under his belt. I think he has more than the stomach for it. In fact, I think he screams ‘GET IN MY BELLY!’” SMH. He’s saying ‘get in my belly’ to the weekend breakfast special at Waffle House because he certainly isn’t making the cut.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 11, 2014 at 3:47 pm

      And Zach Johnson doesn’t appear to be making the cut either. The main point is that saying Keegan doesn’t have the stomach to win a major…..and he’s already won a major doesn’t make much sense.

  10. Dennis

    Apr 9, 2014 at 10:00 pm

    Very solid list. Sure the winner is in.
    I will follow the frenchie Dubuisson, he was just amazing at the WGC Matchplay Championship.

  11. Kevin McGarrahan

    Apr 9, 2014 at 5:01 pm

    I would not count out Patrick Reed. Although it is his first time at the Masters, it is not his first time playing Augusta National. He attended Augusta State University and played some of his collegiate golf at Augusta. That gives him a large advantage over all the other first timers.

    • Rich

      Apr 11, 2014 at 10:06 pm

      Yes it certainly seemed to help him…………………….

    • brad

      May 1, 2014 at 8:02 am

      Honestly I don’t see him as a fixture. I think he’ll play well every few years, but then remain in that 60-70 bracket in the world ranks. Attitude is everything, and he lacks it. He did play well for a few weeks though.

  12. Denis Larkin

    Apr 9, 2014 at 6:33 am

    thought this was a great read and the more i read it the more i liked it . this week its so falling to place that rory ,phil and adam scott are the three to watch but if you want a hint of form –bradley ,scott and big phil are the three that you should take a dart and stick the wage packet on one of them .

  13. Tony Peace

    Apr 9, 2014 at 5:48 am

    Well,you’ve eliminated my 4 picks of Zach,Ricky,Ernie & Trev Immelmann. Interesting to see how you fare. Good luck.

  14. baljit

    Apr 9, 2014 at 12:52 am

    The guy condemning Rory clearly has not seen him hit balls in person.

    Striking out the first timers based on tournament history sounds logical. but looking at the qualities of the first timers in field, Im not surprised if one of them wins

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:47 am

      I do think that this is the best 1-time invitee group of golfers we have had in a long time. It wouldn’t shock me if a player won, but it’s historically been difficult to win the first time playing any event on Tour. Particularly the Masters.

      • baljit

        Apr 30, 2014 at 9:45 am

        and two newbies nearly won it…i rest my case

  15. LMB

    Apr 8, 2014 at 10:19 pm

    I get the way you did this list, but you have Vijay Singh on there with a chance to win but not Bernhard Langer? IMHO Bernhard is a much more solid/consistant player and would probably wipe the floor with Vijay if they were competing in matchplay.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:51 am

      Vijay hits it higher and longer. He is also striking the ball quite well this year, particularly from 175-225 yards.

      • LMB

        Apr 14, 2014 at 11:59 pm

        Langer T-8…..Vijay???? No where to be seen. I rest my case.

  16. Nagar

    Apr 8, 2014 at 8:25 pm

    Good article. I feel Jason Day has a huge chance in winning. He has been near or near a bouts for 3 years now and is due for a major win.

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  18. Rob

    Apr 8, 2014 at 6:13 pm

    No love for Dufner? He may not win, but I’d bet on a top 10 finish for the Dufman.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:54 am

      2nd lowest trajectory on Tour. Also plays a fade. Love him as a player, but Augusta is a tough fit for him.

  19. PBGS

    Apr 8, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    Luke Donald is considered long enough?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:55 am

      Not just based off distance, but club head speed. Luke is generating about 111 to 112 mph of club head speed. Trajectory is so important at ANGC and Luke has enough speed and hits it high. He’s borderline, but since he’s played very well in the past, I gave him the nod.

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  21. Mathieu

    Apr 8, 2014 at 12:00 pm

    very interesting, thanks,
    any thoughts on Dubuisson, even if he’s never played Augusta?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 11:03 am

      Good driver of the ball that excels from 125-175 yard shots (ranked #1 on Tour). But poor from the Danger Zone (142nd) mainly because he has struggled to keep those shots in the fairway. He could stand a good chance here because he’s 8th in shots from the fairway and the rough at ANGC is negligible. Has putted terribly this year (174th in Putts Gained)

      • Mathieu

        Apr 11, 2014 at 2:00 am

        I guess he’s learning how to play in the USA. I think stats don’t count for him this year he’s improving every week, espacially on putting (slower greens in europe), we’ll see then. thanks

  22. Javier

    Apr 8, 2014 at 6:10 am

    A very reasonable list, I like it.
    Agree with you; Rory, Mickelson and Scott are the favorites, but I’d love that any of the Spaniards win the tournament, specially Sergio or Jimenez.

  23. Kyle

    Apr 8, 2014 at 4:34 am

    Not sure how the weathers going to be but i seen on the news yesterdays practice rounds were cancelled due to storms, Would you say the wetter weather will play into other players hands vs certain others?

    Anyone any idea about if Jason Days hand is ok? Nick Faldo mentioned he had injured it yesterday

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 8:57 am

      Depends on how wet it gets. If it makes for the greens to be softer, then the shorter hitters that strike their long approach shots well (i.e. Zach) have more of a chance. If it is soaked and the ball is not rolling off the tee, then it could start to favor their longer hitters because they can carry it further.

  24. Joel

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:45 pm

    In my humble opinion, I believe at ANGC, the “danger zone” should be differentiated between 175-200 and 200-225. A player could be pretty average from 200-225(Bubba Watson) but solid from 175ish and win. The same goes for Lee Westwood, and even though he’s not as long as Bubba, I think he plays to his strengths and weaknesses when it comes to 200+ approaches. Also, for what it’s worth, Zach Johnson is ahead of both Kuchar and Snedeker in regards to distance in 2014. I like him over both of those guys. That being said, 8 out of 10 on this list is flat out amazing.

    • Joel

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:48 pm

      Sorry for the duplicate entries there. For some reason my 1st comment didnt show up for several hours. I suppose I’m REALLY pushing for Zach Johnson.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 9:01 am

      When I examine courses and what approach shots have the most strokes gained/lost from I actually look at it in 25-yard increments instead of 50-yard increments. Both 175-200 yards and 200-225 yards are where a lot of strokes are lost and gained. Not only on the par-4’s and par-3’s, but on the par-5’s. So if a long hitter like Bubba bombs one on a par-5 and has 215 yards into the hole, it doesn’t do him much good if he can’t execute from 215 yards.

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  26. Sky

    Apr 7, 2014 at 7:29 pm

    I think it’s a very solid list. I would call Kuchar a shorter hitter and a low ball hitter though.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 9:03 am

      Thanks, Sky. I base short hitting not only on distance, but club head speed. I base low ball hitting based on what the Max Height averages reported from ShotLink. Kuchar is not terribly short nor does he hit it terribly low. I will say like Luke Donald, he’s on the borderline (Donald actually hits it high). But given his success here in the past in good weather conditions and his recent play I put him on the list.

  27. Nick Boyd

    Apr 7, 2014 at 6:33 pm

    Fred Couples seems to be in the mix every year on sunday, thats the one that sticks out to me as a booboo. Interesting process of elimination and good read overall!

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 1:21 am

      My issue with Freddie is I don’t think his back would hold up.

      • Nick Boyd

        Apr 8, 2014 at 5:53 pm

        Its Augusta – Freddy lives for Augusta

    • Jack Michaels

      Apr 9, 2014 at 1:31 pm

      I agree. Couples’ history at Augusta is so stella in recent years, plus his form on the Champions Tour has been great. At the 175/1 I got I think that Freddy is a solid each way bet.

  28. leftright

    Apr 7, 2014 at 4:46 pm

    Rich,
    I’ll give you your 10 and take the rest for $100. Please email me if you want the bet and anyone else who wants the bet I’ll take it. You take Rich’s 10 and I’ll take the rest.

    • leftright

      Apr 7, 2014 at 4:50 pm

      I only made this comment to be sort of in your face because it is going to be real wet this year it seems. Brings many others into play. Personally I hop Phil wins…ABT.

    • Jason

      Apr 9, 2014 at 12:40 am

      Ill take the bet of his top 23 Vs Field. 10 vs 80 is a little lopsided.

  29. Joel

    Apr 7, 2014 at 4:37 pm

    Maybe I’m a dork but I love this stuff, and 8 out of 10 is incredible. If I can play devils advocate, it seems to me that there are players where “Danger Zone” avoidance is more important than danger zone play. Westwood and Watson are two that come to mind. Is it possible the sample size is smaller for them because they’re aware of this weakness? Both struggle from 200-225 but neither often leave themselves that far out(on 4’s or 5’s at Augusta.) It seems obvious but I wonder if Bubba had the fewest “danger zone” attempts two years ago. You have Zach Johnson listed as “too short” but he actually leads Snedeker and Kuchar in driving distance in 2014-I think he’s got a legitimate shot. For a longshot, and I know his putting can be sketchy, but I like Woodland. I have no statistics to back it up either:)

  30. Kevin

    Apr 7, 2014 at 3:11 pm

    I really liked this article, a great way to look at this topic.

    My one question is, why didn’t Luke Donald fall into your “too short” category? I don’t feel he’s any longer than the others you mentioned. His average finish in driving distance is in the high 160s or low 170s, so there’s only like 10 guys on the PGA Tour each year who, on average, hit their drives shorter than him.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 5:18 pm

      I measure ‘too short’ not only on distance, but based on club head speed. Donald also hits the ball much higher. He’s really on the borderline, but since he has played well at ANGC in the past, I kept him in the top-23

  31. west

    Apr 7, 2014 at 2:38 pm

    Whaaaaat?!?! Making predictions like this are “speculative” at best. Sports, especially golf, has soooo many factors you couldn’t possibly factor or weigh them all in a way that might contribute to making an accurate prediction. Can’t wait to see how things turn out this week. You’re playing the lotto here, and my only prediction is that someone will win that is not on your top ten list…

    • west

      Apr 7, 2014 at 2:39 pm

      Did the Final Four teach you nothing this year? 😉

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 3:11 pm

      There are many common trends that and statistical probabilities that favor certain types of players on each course on Tour. Your odds of seeing somebody like Tim Clark win here are very slim. Yet, a course like Sawgrass will play much more into his favor and is why he has won there. Last year, 8 of the top-10 finishers were in my final 23. The only players that were not were Jason Day (bad Danger Zone play) and Thorbjorn Olesen (a European player I have no data on).

      • Keith

        Apr 7, 2014 at 3:33 pm

        Day is 16th on the Fed Ex Cup and Won the World Cup and the World Matchplay? How is that in the Danger Zone.

  32. John

    Apr 7, 2014 at 2:20 pm

    Very informative and interesting article. Well done.

    Love Leishman as a surprise pick.

    • Mx

      Apr 7, 2014 at 3:02 pm

      Not really a surprise as he has already played extremely well at augusta. Can’t remember what year it was though. I would never rule out DJ, Poulter and, after last years performance, Thorbjorn Olesen.

      • John

        Apr 7, 2014 at 5:23 pm

        his odds are 100/1 to win. I’d call that a surprise if he did.

  33. Dude McDude

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:56 am

    “They are, in no particular order”

    Except they are in alphabetical order…

  34. Jamie Kennedy

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:43 am

    FYI – Senden has made the cut. He finished T35th last year.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:05 pm

      You know what? You’re right. When I was looking at his past history on Wikipedia, I got the columns screwed up. I think he stands a chance since he is a good Danger Zone player (shots from 150+ yards), but his record at ANGC has not been good.

  35. nikkyd

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:21 am

    Rory mcilroy has got to be the most over rated young player on tour. And a whiner at best.

    • T

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:26 am

      do you have any stats to back that up??? Seeing as this is an article about statistics…not ridiculous intangibles…regardless how is a two time major winner before the age of 24 overrated?

      • Pudo

        Apr 8, 2014 at 1:17 pm

        Word! Rors is Top Notch material! If he was a Yankee he’d be your man all day long.! Wake the f**k up Nikkyd!

    • Jacob

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:42 am

      2 Majors championships is over-rated? You have very high standards sir.

    • Sean Edwards

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:02 pm

      Overrated? Two majors, and three wins in 4 weeks? Overrated?? He has more talent in his pinky than half of the tour players. Quit making ignorant statements with no evidence to back it up. Go Rory!!!

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:09 pm

      He’s won 2 majors including a blow-out victory at the US Open and won the PGA decisively. He was leading the Masters in decisive fashion until blowing up on the final day. And then he did the interview afterward despite being heartbroken (he had yet to have won a major at that time) and handled the interview as professionally and as maturely as anybody I have ever seen. And he’s only 24 years old. He hasn’t been perfect in his behavior, but he has acted very maturely, kindly and in general I find him to be a terrific representative of the game of golf.

    • Craig Peckham

      Apr 8, 2014 at 1:00 am

      I have said this for a while about Rory McIlroy; he has only won primarily in ‘soft’ conditions. As Tiger once said about Rory, he will win more when he learns the nuances of the game. If it rains before or during the Masters week and the wind stays down, look for Rory to be in contention (Top 5), otherwise I don’t think he will be in the Top 10. He simply doesn’t have the variety of shots, or doesn’t have the confidence yet to use when called for. As for Mr. Richie Hunt, I am surprised that in your statistical analysis you didn’t factor in age. Aren’t most Masters winners over 30 and primarily under 35 (with some exceptions of course). The age factor presumably would mean enough PGA Tour and competitive experience combined with athletic ability.

      • Björn

        Apr 9, 2014 at 2:43 am

        Rory grew up playing Royal County Down. One of the best golf courses in the workd and without a doubt one of the windiest. It also has very firm greens and requires a reportoir of shots that no course in the US requires. I think he has it all.

  36. T

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:20 am

    Love the article and the in depth statistical analysis. I do have a question or two about where you get your stats. Let’s take Ryan Moore for instance. He is currently ranked #2 in GIR from 175-200 yds & #11 in Approaches from the same distance as of the SHO so should he really be eliminated because of the “danger zone” stat? He may not be a solid contender but his current form and history at Augusta make him an intriguing pick just below the favorites.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:03 pm

      Danger Zone is based on proximity to the cup. It is also based on shots from 175-225 yards. What is interesting is that I created a formula that took proximity to the cup and the % of greens *missed*. The lowest combination of the two would be the ‘best.’ I’ve found that from 125-175 yards being the best at these two (prox 2 cup + greens missed %), this was statistically very important. But from 175+ yards, not so much. From 175+ yards it is more about getting the ball closer to the hole.

      I don’t have this off the top of my head, but Moore was ranked in the bottom half in Danger Zone play this year. So I think you’re likely over-valueing GIR % from that distance and not counting in shots from 200-225 yards.

  37. Nick

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:06 am

    Zach Johnson is too short to play Augusta? Really? He’s as long as he was in 2007… when he won at Augusta.

    • Matt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:10 am

      I think Rich explained why he said ZJ was too short and gave a brief explanation to why he believes he was able to compete in 07.

      • leftright

        Apr 7, 2014 at 4:54 pm

        The most important stat is “who has got the head for it.” That pretty much eliminates 5 of the 10 off the bat. You have to fail before you succeed and Snedeker, Leishman, Day, Bradley and Kuchar have to fail first, despite the PGA wins. None of those guys have to stomach for it yet.

        • kent

          Apr 7, 2014 at 8:43 pm

          leftright….while I do agree with you that many of those do not likely have the stomach, Watson disproved that theory with his win a couple years ago. As much fun as he is to watch, I can’t remember a more shaky looking player in contention (not sure if you caught his skulled chip earlier this year). And yet, he hit one great shot from the trees to earn his jacket. I’d certainly put my money on all those you listed over Bubba a couple years ago.

          • leftright

            Apr 8, 2014 at 3:00 pm

            I sort of agree but if Bubba had Tiger or Jack’s “stomach” he would have won 15 majors by now. They talk about Tiger’s talent but Bubba may have the most talent ever. Essentially, and this is from personal experience and speaking with many real good players, 99% of golfers really don’t have the stomach for it. The mind is the most underrated part of golf and most underrated skill. I personally would like to see more psychiatric articles because my mind is beating me to death most of the time and probably many of you. Do the hibijeebees control you or do you control them? Tiger and Jack controlled them best if they even had them.

        • Richie Hunt

          Apr 8, 2014 at 1:23 am

          Keegan Bradley has a major under his belt. I think he has more than the stomach for it. In fact, I think he screams ‘GET IN MY BELLY!’

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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