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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: WGC-Cadillac Championship

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Playoffs seem to be the golfing drug of choice lately, and I, for one, found myself highly addicted to the final round tomfoolery The Bear Trap unleashed on Rory McIlroy and his three-pack of Honda Classic chasers.

PGA National definitely delivered a climactic finish, culminating in Russell Henley’s second career win on the PGA Tour in just his second season. Now, Henley is one of just four golfers under age 25 with two or more victories. That is just as noteworthy as McIlroy’s display of nerves in holding a 54-hole lead.

Now the Tour takes a split, sending its top golfers to south Florida for the no-cut World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship and its lower-tiered players to the Caribbean for the Puerto Rico Open.

The focus of this column will focus on an elite 69 golfers facing off against TPC Blue Monster at Trump National Doral, but if you want to talk one of The Donald’s other ventures, Trump International GC-Puerto Rico, find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Here’s another weekly edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

You will probably see many different names scattered among gamers’ picks this week. With so many quality choices to choose from and no cut to worry about, you’ve got to look for people who can score, but there may not be much separation between those outside the top three or five. Thus, if you’re in an earnings game, you want to choose people who can win because once you get past third place, there is a big gap. And the winner? He gets a $1.5 million haul. Weigh your picks carefully for this aspect, and also factor in many course changes, most notably an increased difference in greens difficulty.

Tiger Woods

Even as I penned Woods in the the Ruin category last week at the Honda Classic, which panned out, I still had him marked as a Reward for this week. And then came the mainstream media-created withdrawal-heard-round-the-world. Players are required to give a reason for WD and Woods provided us with a back spasms response. I don’t doubt he felt a twinge and with himself out of contention, why ruin a stretch of preparation leading up to the Masters.

So the question becomes what happens at Doral? Tiger has typically owned this course, winning the WGC-Cadillac last year and before in 2007. He’s won four times in total at Doral if you include ’05 and ’06 where he won back-to-back Ford Championships at Doral. What to do, what to do. If he’s in the field, you’ve got to roster him in Yahoo leagues, but other games will lend to a tough decision. Can you risk a potential WD and a start used? Will he compete if he’s receiving treatment all week and not putting in as much practice work? This is tough. And since Tiger generally plays well when he can read greens, the course changes may equalize course history.

Justin Rose

justin rose wgc-cadillac championship

Also coming off a withdrawal, albeit pre-tournament, Rose’s woes start with shoulder tendinitis. That is enough of a concern for me that I won’t touch him with so many others to choose from. But if you’re willing to get aggressive, he played extremely well to begin the PGA Tour season and is the 2012 winner of this event. He followed that up with a T8 last year, reaching 10-under for the tournament. He also has two other top-20s at Doral, so you’re not going out on a limb in picking him, it just may not be the best strategy.

Phil Mickelson

Lefty’s game just doesn’t look sharp right now. He missed the cut at the Honda Classic and keeps putting himself out of contention with bad mental mistakes, which leads to a higher scoring average. He’s definitely capable of getting it going, but until that focus clicks for him, he’s a hard sell in any lineup. Last year, though he won the Waste Management Phoenix Open, his scoring was about the same. And he shot 67-67-69-71 to finish T3 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He won this in ’09, but only has one other top-20 finish at Doral. Total risk selection this week.

Victor Dubuisson

victor-dubuisson-wgc-cadillac champioonship

No doubt the Frechman captured your attention at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships, finishing second to Jason Day in a 23-hole duel. How Dubuisson fares against the world’s best in a stroke play event is much different. I don’t know if he will be able to do enough for four straight days to warrant selection, especially in light of proven Tour winners. Remember, this isn’t a week where you look for someone to finish in the top-20. You’re picking winners and I don’t think Dubuisson is there yet, especially in light of his stiff competition.

Steve Stricker

Although Stricker has moved to a less-packed Tour schedule over the last few years, he normally has a few more tournaments under his belt when he hits Doral. Yes, he finished second last year to Woods, but he’d also finished second at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and T5 in match play. This year, there was no Hawaii reward trip and his first play was at Dove Mountain where he got surprisingly bounced in the first round by George Coetzee. I think he needs a few more competitive rounds to challenge, but you never know given his experience. He was T8 in ’12 and has four other top-20s since 2007, including a T6 in ’08.

REWARD

With several proven WGC-Cadillac winners hitting other lists, the Reward picks this week lack some luster in terms of course history. But they all have the pedigree to pick up a win or top-three finish. I’m running with combinations of these five across all games

Adam Scott

Was7453382

There’s a lot on the line this week for Scott. With a win and a Woods finish outside the top seven, the Aussie would move to No. 1 in the world. That number is a driving force for many golfers, and Scott would become only the second Australian to be top dog, joining Greg Norman. That’s the motivation, and Scott’s success at Doral has been strong, which comes on the heels of four top-10s this season and a T12 at the Honda Classic. Scott finished T3 last year, T13 in ’12 and T6 in ’11. He also has a top-10 from 2008. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t contend all week. He has Tiger’s former caddy, Tiger’s drive and a sweet swing to walk out the winner and supplant Tiger atop the OWGR.

Rory McIlroy

Aside from an unexpected case of the yips in the final round of the Honda Classic, McIlroy has been burning up every course he’s walked this year. He knows his game is in good shape so I doubt one bad Sunday round in which nearly everyone struggled will be enough to derail him. He’ll be hungry. Even with all the struggles he had last year and a withdrawal from the Honda, he walked in and grabbed a T8. The year before was solo third, and he has a top-10 and top-20 to previously boast of in his young career.

Matt Kuchar

matt kuchar wgc-cadillac championship

Aside from a surprising missed cut at the Northern Trust Open, Kuchar has seven top-10s in eight starts this year. Had it not been for Jordan Spieth, who knows what might have happened in match play, but it was an encouraging sign for Kuchar to shake off his MC and play well. Kuchar finished T8 at Doral in 2012, was solo fifth in ’11 and T3 in ’10. I just have the feeling we’re going to see Kuchar and his mischievously genuine smile do some damage this week.

Jordan Spieth

Speaking of Spieth, he’s one of the few golfers you feel comfortable running out on a course he’s not played. Why? Because he just finds a way to navigate any challenge and play to the peak of his enormous potential. Really, it’s surprising he hasn’t won twice or more already on Tour, but that’s more a testament to someone like Zach Johnson holding him off at the Hyundai TOC than anything else. He had no trouble with Pebble Beach on his first try, ending T4. This time last year, he finished T2 at the Puerto Rico Open, and he ended his year by bookending the FedEx Cup playoffs with a second-place playoff loss at the Wyndham Championship and a T2 at the Tour Championship.

Dustin Johnson

dustin johnson wgc-cadillac championship

Johnson’s season started with a win and before being bumped in match play, he put together two second-place results at Pebble and the NTO. He was just off the pace last year, reaching 9-under par to finish T12. He was solo second in ’11. With his length off the tee, he’s going to reach a lot of par-5s in two and give himself easy irons into the redesigned greens. And since he leads the Tour in greens in regulation, he’ll be putting a lot for birdie.

RUIN

I can keep naming good names to look at this week: Zach Johnson, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel, Keegan Bradley. There are names not as frequently picked like Ernie Els, Nick Watney and Jim Furyk who’ve won at Doral. That being said, there are big names you don’t want to touch at Doral. Remember, with no cut, Ruin is a relative term, but finishing outside the top 25 can hurt in these scenarios.

Ian Poulter

ian poutler wgc-cadillac championship

Despite living in Florida, Poulter has never taken to Doral. Here’s his line over the year: T28 (’13), T60 (’12), T45 (’11), T37 (’10) and T57 (’08). His best finish is a T13 five years ago and he enters in bad form, especially since the so-called match play specialist got beat early by Rickie Fowler.

Louis Oosthuizen

The talented South African makes this list again thanks to uncertainty over whether he can finish a tournament. Back problems are nothing to mess with in this sport. While he impressed with a quarterfinal appearance in match play, this isn’t the week to posture (no pun intended) a high finish. Last year, he finished T33 and in 2012 he was T60. He has two top-20s over the years, but also two other bad stars (T68, ’08; T50, ’07). Strongly avoid.

Jason Day

jason day wgc-cadillac championship

Admit it, you think I’m crazy for slotting the Accenture Match Play Championships winner here. Now let’s look at his finishes at Doral: T33 last year after finishing third in match play and sixth at Pebble Beach; T20 in ’12; T45 after finishing T9 in ’11 match play. That’s called track record. Granted, he could break the trend and his game has begun reaching an elite level, but I’m not going to guess. That’s a surefire way to lose points during the course of a season, no matter how tantalizing the morsel may be.

Brandt Snedeker

We’re still a long way off from this being a lost season for Snedeker, but the little knee injury he had back in November really slowed any chance of sustaining the momentum he built the previous two years. While match play showed some signs of life, he’s still had bad starts leading into this start. Last year, Snedeker didn’t even start his first round at Doral after withdrawing with a rib injury. In 2012, he finished T45. Then you have to go all the way back to 2008 to find another start, which ended T48. That doesn’t exactly give you confidence to run him out there this week.

Graham DeLaet

graham delaet wgc-cadillac championship

DeLaet’s blistering start to the year came to a sudden halt when he finished T70 at the Northern Trust Open and got bounced in the first round of match play by Patrick Reed. Now he faces a TPC Blue Monster course he’s never teed off on against a field he has yet to beat. No doubt, DeLaet will get his first Tour win at some point, but everything points to a finish outside the top 25 at this point. When he gets hot again, I’ll be there to jump on board.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the WGC-Cadillac Championship, the Puerto Rico Open or discuss any fantasy lineup dilemmas. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: A. Scott (S), M. Kuchar

Group B: D. Johnson (S), R. McIlroy (S), J. Spieth, S. Stricker

Group C: S. Garcia (S), C. Schwartzel

(Last week: 166 points; Winter segment: 1,390; Rank: 2,106 – 97th percentile)

PGATour.com

J. Spieth, D. Johnson, M. Kuchar, A. Scott

(Last week: 96 points; Season: 2,528; Rank: 5,190)

Golf Channel

WGC-Cadillac Championship

Group 1: A. Scott

Group 2: D. Johnson

Group 3: K. Bradley

Group 4: P. Reed

Puerto Rico Open

Group 1: B. Koepka

Group 2: B. Crane

Group 3: T. van Aswegen

Group 4: H. Swafford

(Last week: $485,800; Season: $4,224,554; Mulligan: $28,666; Rank: 13,676)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

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