Opinion & Analysis

Using statistics and launch monitor data to shoot lower scores

Published

10 years ago

Mar 12, 2014

As a statistician who works with PGA Tour players, I’m frequently asked by aspiring Tour players and their coaches what statistics they can use to measure themselves against Tour players.

The mistake with this question is that the playing grounds for aspiring Tour players and actual PGA Tour players are often different. In fact, metrics on the PGA Tour can change drastically from one event to another. For instance, the average make percentage of putts from 3-to-5 feet for the year is roughly 87 percent. At the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, however, the average make percentage for professionals from 3-to-5 feet was only 76 percent. Thus, a golfer that made 80 percent of their putts from 3-to-5 feet would be putting poorly on many Tour courses, but doing better than average at Pebble Beach. And the same applies for shot proximity to the cup. Some courses are easier than others and for aspiring Tour players. It is not easy to gauge their performance versus the PGA Tour players performance since it depends on the degree of difficulty of the course.

Don’t get me wrong. I do think that using PGA Tour benchmarks can be useful, but expecting that they will provide golfers with an accurate depiction of how the average Tour player would perform on a course is misleading at best. Instead, I advise golfers to focus on what I call their “game profile.” A game profile is various strengths and weaknesses of a golfer’s game. It’s how well they putt, drive the ball, what happens when they drive it effectively or ineffectively, how well they hit their short approach shots, mid-length approach shots and long approach shots and how well they perform with their short game around the green.

The game profile starts with power and how far a golfer hits the ball off the tee. How far a golfer hits the ball dictates what the rest of their game will generally have to look like in order to achieve success. But first, what we should understand is that the biggest advantage to hitting the ball far is that it affects how well golfers will have to putt the ball. And the farther a golfer hits the ball, the more likely he or she can get away with poor putting. Here is a chart showing many of the super-long hitters on Tour and their 2013 PGA Tour performance in money, driving distance and the strokes gained – putting categories.

Conversely, here’s a look at the shorter hitters on Tour that were successful and their rankings.

The biggest reason why the long hitters can get away with weaker putting is that they often have the distance to play the par-5’s in two shots like they are par-4’s. And they are getting more birdie opportunities on those holes, because they’re often hitting it closer to the cup.

The problem with using distance for the aspiring Tour player is that virtually every golfer who tells me how far they hit the ball will give me a number of when they hit the ball the best without the weather conditions affecting their distance. Even Tour players do not consistently make great contact with the ball and are far from being overly consistent with how far they hit their driver.

And that is where launch monitors can help. In 2013, the average club head speed on Tour was 113.6 mph. The highest club head speed was 124.5 mph by Charlie Beljan, and the lowest was 104.7 mph by Jin Park. These numbers should give an initial indication of how much power a golfer has compared to the Tour.

Another important factor to consider is the attack angle. I am not trying to advocate any particular attack angle for a golfer. We know that all things being equal, the more golfers hit up on the ball with a well-fit driver the farther the ball will travel. Therefore, if a golfer has a very downward attack angle, but generates 113.6 mph of club head speed, he or she is effectively now as powerful off the tee as a golfer that may have less club head speed, but hits well up on the driver.

Lastly, we need to consider the Apex Height. The average apex height of a Tour player in 2013 was 96.9 feet. The highest was 131.7 feet by Jason Day. And the lowest apex height was 67.5 feet from Scott Langley. There is a statistical correlation between a player’s apex height and success on Tour. While it is not a strong mathematical correlation, it is substantial enough that it warrants attention. Obviously, golfers with higher club head speeds generally will hit the ball higher, but there are many low club head speed players that hit the ball high and have had resounding success like Brandt Snedeker, Ben Crane, Mark Wilson and Luke Donald, to name a few. What my research has uncovered is that there are too many courses on Tour that favor golfers with higher ball trajectories. I attribute this to the modern course designs, which have more forced carries than older courses.

Once a golfer gets their club head speed and attack angle readings, they can start to determine how much power they have off the tee compared to the rest of the Tour. And for any player, I generally recommend a goal of keeping their fairway bunkers hit to under 5 percent (roughly one fairway bunker hit every other round). As far as hitting the fairways goes, it is rather simple. The farther golfers hit the ball, the lower percentage of fairways they have to hit. Here is a chart of the recommended goal of fairway percentage hit based on club head speed in order to be effective off the tee:

When we examine the table showing the successful lower club head speed players and putting combined with the recommended fairway percentages by club head speed table, we start to see that it becomes virtually impossible to make the PGA Tour if you cannot generate at least 104 mph of club head speed. Once a golfer gets below 104 mph, it requires them to hit such a high percentage of fairways and to putt so incredibly well that they are going to have a hard time keeping their card because golfers can only be so accurate and putt so well.

This leads into power and its influence on the game profile and the player’s ability to hit approach shots. I break down approach shots into three different zones:

Birdie Zone (shots from 75-to-125 yards)
Safe Zone (shots from 125-to-175 yards)
Danger Zone (shots from 175-to-225 yards)

In general, the Danger Zone is the most important zone in golf. In fact, it has the strongest mathematical correlation to success on Tour. Regardless of club head speed, the player’s performance on Tour is largely dictated by how well they play from the Danger Zone. And there is not a substantial correlation between club head speed and Danger Zone play.

My research leads me to believe that this is because the Danger Zone shots requires golfers to have directional and distance control, whereas shots from the Birdie and Safe Zones are more distance-control oriented. The angle for error from the Danger Zone diminishes because it is such a long shot. So while generating more club head speed will have golfers hitting shorter clubs from the Danger Zone, the angle of error diminishes so much that golfers with slower club head speeds like Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, Luke Donald and Graeme McDowell can get the advantage because of their superior directional control from this zone.

What often happens with the long hitters is that they may not actually be that skillful with their irons, but still rank well from the Danger Zone. This is because most of their Danger Zone shots are coming on the Par-3’s. When the rest of the field is playing a long par-4 and can only manage to leave themselves with 175-to-225 yard shots into the green, the long bombers can hit their drives to 125-to-175 yards. This is one of Bubba Watson’s strengths, because historically he has not been a good iron player. If there was a contest from 200 yards between Bubba and Jim Furyk, I would take Furyk. The difference is that in competition Bubba is hitting his approach shots from a much shorter distance than Furyk the majority of the time and that levels the playing field, or even gives the advantage to the lesser skilled iron player.

As I discussed earlier, the shorter hitters normally have to putt better because they cannot hit their second shots as close to the hole on the par-5’s as the long hitters. This also means that slower club head speed players need to hit it better from 100-to-150 yards in order to catchup to the rest of the field on those par-5’s. Shots from 100-125 yards are generally where the shorter hitter will end up laying up to. Even if their “money yardage” is less than 100 yards, the majority of the time they can only lay up to 100-to-125 yards. And if they hit a weaker tee shot, then their lay-up shot tends to move more towards 125-to-150 yards.

Here is a table showing some notable players’ 2013 ranking on shots from 100-to-125 yards and their club head speed with the driver.

If the higher club head speed players were better from 100-to-125 yards, it would have a positive impact on their performance. However, due to their high club head speed, performing well from 100-to-125 yards is a lower priority than it is for the lower club head speed players.

The game profiles are something that the average amateur can use as well. For example, golfers who play to a 10 handicap but hit the ball short for that handicap level and do not foresee themselves increasing their club head speed substantially in the future may want to follow the example set. There is a warning; the distance of the “Zones” changes for amateurs because they are playing shorter courses. So if golfers are playing courses that are roughly 6,000-to-6,300 yards, their ‘Danger Zone’ will about 150-to-200 yards and the Birdie Zone will be about 50-t0-100 yards. But the same game profile concept will remain the same.

The shorter-than-your-average-10 handicap player may want to work more on his putting, focus more on hitting more fairways and on his wedge play. The longer-than-your-average-10 handicapper may want to focus on keeping his drives in play more often so they can use that length to his advantage. This can help players from all levels take the path needed to shoot better scores.

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

24 Comments

Hudson

Apr 2, 2014 at 4:58 pm

I have recently calculated on a full round of 18 holes the gained/lost strokes compared to a PGA pro and based on the “gained stokes concept” implemented by Mr Broadie.

Let me share with you my results that will interest quite a few of you down here 😉

The great advantage of the method is that it quantifies the number of strokes you loose on each part of your game. I found this new concept a revolution ! I for example can now focus on my long game (>165 yards)of my game where I “lost” 6 strokes last week…

See below the complete calculations and explanations I made:

http://golf-made-in-us.blogspot.com/2014/04/golf-stats-revolution-gained-strokes.html

Reply Report comment
Mike

Mar 14, 2014 at 10:33 am

Great read, thanks for posting it. One question: are those tour statistics readily available for the average person to see?

Reply Report comment
Peter Maki

Mar 14, 2014 at 1:48 am

Great article. As a mechanical engineer aspiring to play professionally I enjoy reading this technical analysis type stuff. Keep it up!

Reply Report comment
RollTheRock

Mar 13, 2014 at 10:29 am

Great article, but how do I know if I am a “shorter than average 10-hcp”? Do you have a table with average distance per handicap?

Reply Report comment
- RollTheRock
  
  Mar 13, 2014 at 10:50 am
  
  As a follow up, if you are a shorter than average 10, and you improve upon the other aspects of your game, your handicap will drop, making you a significantly shorter than average 6 or wherever you get to. It almost seems like there is an implied floor to how low your handicap can within reason based on distance off the tee. If you hit the ball 250, which is average for let’s say a 10hcp, and get down to a 5, to improve further assuming you can’t get any more distance off the tee, you would have to become incredibly accurate or an amazing putter. It would be awesome if there was some way to quantify this. A chart or data that says to be a scratch golfer with an average distance of 250yds off the tee, you would typically have to hit x% of fwys, gain y strokes from the danger zone, and gain z strokes putting. And then perhaps be able to play with x, y and z. For instance, I can hit x% of fairways but I don’t gain enough strokes in the danger zone, however I can gain z+ strokes putting.
  
  Sorry for the nerd rant, but that would be cool.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Philip
    
    Mar 13, 2014 at 11:53 am
    
    I second the request for that info, if available. Definitely would be cool to have!
    
    Reply Report comment
  - Richie Hunt
    
    Mar 13, 2014 at 1:47 pm
    
    That was one of the parts I struggled with. There were some researchers from Australia that did research and found that handicap and club head speed do have a very strong correlation to each other. They did a regression analysis to come up with a handicap to ball speed analysis, but I could not get the formula to compute correctly. Something I am working on.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - anonymous
    
    Mar 14, 2014 at 9:57 am
    
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/21/sports/golf/21pennington.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
    
    This is a related article on what to work on based on statistical analysis.
    
    Basically, you take your fractional remaining length (distance remaining to target / total distance from original spot). If your FRL is ~5-6% you should be hitting it 297 yards, ~8-9% 248 yards, ~12% 237 yards, 17.3% 216 yards. If you hit it farther, work on your short game, if you hit it shorter work on your long game.
    
    Reply Report comment
joe sixpack

Mar 13, 2014 at 12:02 am

This is definitely better than your article last August about whether Trackman is ruining golf.

I have 2 beefs with this.

First, the title. “Statistics & Launch Monitor Data”. The only launch monitor data you use in this article is club head speed. All of the rest of the data is from Shotlink. You mention that it’s important to hit up on a driver and it helps to hit a high ball, but you give no analysis or data on these issues. When I clicked on this story, I was expecting something about Trackman and all of the awesome data it provides. I felt teased.

Second, what is your main point? Shorter hitters need to be straighter drivers, better wedge players and better putters to compete with longer hitters? Duh! Do you need to crunch a bunch of data to convince people of that?

The structure of this article is also a bit of a mess.
Here’s an outline of your article:

– Tour averages vary from course to course. (So what? This has nothing to do with the rest of your article.)
– Pros need to look at their individual strengths and weaknesses.
– The longer you hit the ball, the worse you can be at putting and still compete.
– Shorter hitters that succeed on tour are good putters.
– Launch monitors help you maximize distance for a given swing speed.
– Longer hitters don’t have to hit as many fairways to be competitive.
– Longer hitters have shorter and easier approach shots.

Your argument boils down to this: longer hitters have an advantage. No one will argue with that. Tell us something interesting.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Mar 13, 2014 at 9:12 am
  
  I used more than just club head speed. I discussed attack angle and also used Apex Height of the ball. I also never discussed ‘launch monitors help you maximize distance for a given club head speed.’ The article does not recommend any particular attack angle, but it discusses power, how to more accurately measure it and understand how this will impact the rest of yoru game.
  
  Lastly, long hitters do not always have easier approach shots. If they are in the fairway bunker or deep rough or the trees, that’s not the case. That’s why long hitters rarely win at Sawgrass (Tiger won last year, but was hitting 3-wood on virtually every hole). As I stated in the article, they are likely to have more easier shots into par-5’s. However, they still have to keep the ball on the grid. A player like Luke List didn’t stand a chance last year despite being the longest player on Tour because he couldn’t keep the ball in play.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Mike
  
  Mar 13, 2014 at 10:38 am
  
  +1 on this. I was expecting some analysis on swing speed vs. ball speed or something…
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Richie Hunt
    
    Mar 13, 2014 at 1:45 pm
    
    I tend to avoid using ball speed because there are many factors to ball speed and often times the ball speed measurement is not quite accurate. I also think that the average golfer relates more to club head speed than they do ball speed.
    
    Reply Report comment
Tom Stickney

Mar 12, 2014 at 10:49 pm

Awesome analysis…big fan of your work.

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Dan

Mar 12, 2014 at 10:38 pm

Well written and insightful article Richie. I especially liked the club head speed and recommended fairway percentage. I’ll definitely be able to apply that when looking over my own stats. Keep the great articles coming! Cheers.

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marcel

Mar 12, 2014 at 6:49 pm

what a brilliant article. great research and great write up.

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Philip

Mar 12, 2014 at 5:42 pm

Awesome! Helps me know what to focus on this spring to maximize my game fast.

Reply Report comment
joselo

Mar 12, 2014 at 4:55 pm

this is not helping settin down my golf addiction; great article!

Reply Report comment
Travis

Mar 12, 2014 at 4:50 pm

These types of articles with statistics are more informative for me. It breaks down the stereotype of trying to hit it farther. For a recreational golfer like myself, we constantly read articles and see commercials on how to hit it far just to have bragging rights. This article just proves how hitting it far is not always a good thing to do.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Mar 12, 2014 at 5:15 pm
  
  Thanks for the kind words. I think my main point is that there are more than one way to shoot better scores and to understand what power does for a golfer’s game. If you are legitimately able to add 25 yards to your game and still be fairly consistent doing so, I would certainly take it. But if you can’t legitimately add substantial power and you hit it short, you need to look at putting better and hitting your wedges better while finding more fairways.
  
  Reply Report comment
W

Mar 12, 2014 at 4:29 pm

Love the plethora of information, kudos to the author. Another way to analyze our games and take them to the next level…..

Reply Report comment
The dude

Mar 12, 2014 at 2:05 pm

Love this stuff !!!!….bring more (on puttin %)

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8thehardway

Mar 12, 2014 at 12:01 pm

Fascinating! As a shorter-than-average 8 handicapper, I’ll always lack the go-low potential of longer hitters but as long as my up & downs are roughly equal to the GIRs I’m giving away straight drives and short game focus let me compete with friends 20 years younger and 30 yards longer. And when I can depend on my short game, there is less pressure to attempt a high trajectory, 180 yard approach shot; in effect, I can shrink the danger zone on a hole-by-hole basis by playing to my strengths rather than gambling on my weakness.

Reply Report comment
jon olson

Mar 12, 2014 at 11:12 am

this is an exceptionally well written article. one of the best i have seen on dictating the correlation between the PGA tour courses, the skill set they demand and the strengths and weaknesses of each individual player on tour. excellent read for coaches and players alike!

Reply Report comment
Evan

Mar 12, 2014 at 10:36 am

There is obviously a Long game/ Short game teeter-totter effect. Do you think this has something to do with the nature of golf and it’s equipment? I often think that these long hitters would benefit from a balanced approach to their swings and equipment. More 43″/ 100 g shafted drivers in the hands of the high swing speed players would increase their consistency (not as big of difference in feel from driver to irons).

The driver swing is different than the iron/ wedge swing… is it a coincidence that no one does both really well?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

22 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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