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Opinion & Analysis

Masters predictions: Tiger, Phil, Rory or Luke?

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By Brant Brice

GolfWRX Contributor

The winner of the 2012 Masters is … not Tiger, Phil, Rory or Luke. While you may believe one of these men will roll to victory, there is s new class of PGA Tour professionals poised to prove you wrong.

So what does it take to win the Masters?

The first obvious challenge at Augusta National is length. At over 7400 yards, the course is much more difficult for a shorter hitter like Luke Donald who averages just over 270 yards off the tee and is 70th on Tour in driving accuracy.

Unfortunalely, Luke Donald can’t win here.

Next, the course demands you hit the fairways. The rough is cut very short, which makes errant shots worse as off line shots tend to scoot further into trouble. When you do hit a fairway at Augusta, there aren’t many even lies to be found on the course. So even from the right places, it’s hard to hit greens at the Masters.

Mickelson can surely hit it long enough he just isn’t hitting it straight; in 2012, he is 158th on tour in fairways hit. And even though Mr. Unpredictable has won this year, this course won’t let him get away with the wild tee shot misses.

Scratch Phil Mickelson.

The third necessity needed to tame the field at the Masters is a swing that repeats under pressure. A pro has to have incredible confidence for all four rounds and trust his swing under the most intense pressure cooker of any tournament in golf.

Exit Tiger Woods.

Although he will be the crowd favorite and seems to be returning to classic Tiger form, his TW 3.0 swing is still under construction. While the framework of the new swing is appears to be ingrained, he still has trouble trusting his distances and still fears the occasional double cross. At Augusta, precision is an absolute if he expects to finish with the lowest total score on Sunday. He’s not there yet.

Enter Rory Mcilroy, last year’s sweetheart who had an epic choke in the final round of the 2011 Masters. The young Irishman can crush the ball, and is averaging just a shade shy of 300 yards off the tee with the preferred high draw. But he only hits the fairway and greens 60 percent of the time.  This was a huge reason for the debacle last year. See Phil above.

Statistically, he is a little better than average putter, but has been underwhelming from 100 yards and in, and struggles with making lots of birdies, ranked 181st. Although he is 1st in scrambling, pars won’t win at Augusta. Rory will eventually wear the green jacket but not this year.  Of the four his game is the closest.

No glory for Rory this year.

So who will win in 2012? Look out for these big hitters, straight shooters and steady putters: Keegan Bradley, Martin Kaymer, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland and Kyle Stanley. These boys are young and hungry, they can hit the ball a mile, and they’re all prior tour winners and with the ability and confidence to win any given week.

So, Will Tiger be back? Is Phil on the back side of his career? Will Rory win a Masters?  Can Luke ever beat Augusta?

Tiger 3.0 is close, Phil still has plenty of gas in the tank, Rory will win more than one Masters, but I don’t think Luke can ever beat Augusta unless the field beats itself. It’s not a course that fits his strengths.

The Masters is the grandest stage of all in professional golf. It’s not the most difficult tournament setup where 34 times the final posted score was 9-under or greater, compared to the U.S. Open where only twice in its history has there been final score posted lower than 8-under (Tiger in 2000 at -12 and Rory in 2011 at -16 2000).

What makes the Masters so difficult to win is that it encompasses something far more challenging than length from tee to green or undulating fairways and lightening fast greens. It’s the chance of immortality. It’s the unmistakable noise of the galleries as well as the deafening sound of silence only heard at the Masters. It’s the history of champions past and the timeliness of the course itself. It’s the overwhelming pressure to attain the green jacket, the greatest prize in all of golf. It’s a tradition unlike any other and is the greatest sports event in the world!

Who do you think will win?

Click here for discussion in the “Tour Talk” forum.

Click here to read more from Brant on his blog: Golfensive thoughts and other shallow observations.  You can also follow Brice on Twitter @BrantBrice

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Kevin

    Apr 2, 2012 at 10:30 pm

    tiger, tiger, tiger. phil, nope. rory, maybe. luke donald, nope. either tiger or rory but probs tiger.

  2. Rick

    Apr 2, 2012 at 4:09 pm

    Woodland is in the midst of swing changes with Harmon and has consistently under performed this year. No reason to think he finds it this week. Kaymer has never made a cut at the Masters, and has in the past made noises about having to modify his game to fit the course (i.e. hit more draws). I think you can safely scratch those too off the list.

    If Mahan’s new and improved short game is for real, he might be a non-obvious pick other than your first four mentioned to carry his momentum in and win. In any case, here’s hoping for a Sunday like last year.

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Opinion & Analysis

Let’s Retire Old Man Par: A Modest Proposal

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In 1729, Jonathan Swift wrote a satirical essay entitled “A modest proposal,” in which he suggested that the Irish eat their own children. As might be expected, the piece drew a great deal of discussion and controversy. He was of course not serious, but simply attempting to make a point. As you will read this piece contains “A Modest Proposal” as well, but it is not intended to be satirical. I am for the record dead serious.

The golf industry is wringing its hands, trying to find a way to bring new players into the game, while at the same time keeping those that are in the game from leaving. They have initiated any number of programs designed for this purpose. How successful have they been? I would venture that they have barely moved the needle.

Barriers to the game

What we do know is that today there are three major barriers that confront the industry. They are first, the time required to play the game; second the costs associated with playing the game; and third the difficulty of the game.

There are among those adults that start the game, three distinct different groups:

  1. Those who would like to start playing golf but for any number of reasons decided not to take up the game.
  2. Those who once played more frequently but have reduced the number of rounds that they play.
  3. Those who started to play the game but then after a short period decided to leave it.

Those who leave the game

Those in the golf industry, the hand-wringers, have developed any number of programs to bring new players to the game. I would ask the question, “What is the point, when almost an equal number of players that start playing the game each year, decide to give it up within a span of a few months.

Does it make any sense to continue to put water into a bucket when there is a hole in the bottom? Of course not, but that is effectively what is being done. The first question to be ask, why do these new players quit the playing after a short time? In my opinion, the number No. 1 reason is the method of scoring being used.

Were an exit poll to be conducted asking these people why they quit playing, I seriously doubt they would answer truthfully. Who would want to admit that they were discouraged by their inability to succeed at any endeavor? The two answers that would be given the most often would be 1) that golf is too expensive to play; or 2) that they simply didn’t have time.  In this case both answers serve to preserve the individual’s dignity. And who could blame them?

The concept of par

Why did these individuals find the game difficult? The short answer is that while golf is a hard game to learn, there  is a more compelling reason.  I would venture, that the underlying reason they quit the game is that it ceased to be fun because of how they viewed their performance. And for one central reason… the concept of par. The idea that an amateur golfer, especially a beginner, should measure their level of success against an imaginary set of numbers that represents what an expert player would score on each hole is on the surface ridiculous.

You might imagine a beginning player scoring an eight on a par-four hole after hitting six good shots and then two putting for an eight. In the context of their ability, they should be ecstatic — but of course they are not (because as their playing partner reminds them) they were four-over par on that hole. The time has come for Old Man Par to retire. And retire permanently. He is killing the game.

Perceived failure

In another scenario, the beginning player scores sixty for nine holes, which is an excellent score given the short amount of time they might have spent playing the game. And yet their nine-hole score was 24-over par. How would that make you feel? Would you be encouraged or discouraged? You might imagine yourself back in school and regardless of the amount of work that you put into a given class you always receive an “F.” At some point, would you give up?

Why should every golfer be judged by the same standard when there is such inequality in their ability? The equivalent would be placing a high school freshman in a graduate-level college course, expecting that they could perform at the same level as the other graduate students. The disparity in knowledge, based on age and experience, is precisely the reason why there are different grades in school. The same disparity exists among golfers. In this case, the difference being the ability to perform on the golf course as opposed to the classroom.

What about the second group of players that now plays less than they did in the past? Could it be that they are no longer having fun playing the game?And then there is the third group, those that consider playing the game but abandon it for another sport. Could it be that they are intimidated by the scoring system, knowing that as a beginner par is an absolute impossibility?

Old man par 

The legendary Bobby Jones was the first to coin, perhaps with the help of his friend O.B. Keillor, the phrase “Old Man Par.” Jones was, of course, the greatest amateur to have ever played the game. He won the Grand Slam in 1930, retiring then at the age of 28.

The time has come to retire “Old Man Par” and devise a new system for measuring a golfer’s progress in the game. I know that those in the USGA. would reject the concept immediately for fear of, and here is a $10 word used primarily by attorneys, “bifurcate” the game. What that word essentially means in this context in having more than one standard. The USGA is responsible for preserving the nature of the game, but at the same time it should be equally concerned with preserving the future of the game.

Personal par

What I would suggest is a system based on the principle of what might be termed “personal par.” This was essentially the system that was used to groom a young Tiger Woods. As a young child, he was not capable of reaching the longer holes in regulation, making par a virtual impossibility. Consequently, his coach wisely devised a system in which par was adjusted upward based on his ability at a given point in time. This served to keep the young child feeling good about his performance and subsequent progress.

This is the type of system that needs to be devised for the health of the game. The system would begin at a nine-hole level using a par of thirty-six as a basis. The actual numbers are not as important as the basic concept. There would be within the nine-hole and the eighteen-hole groups five different levels as follows with assigned par for each hole and eighteen holes roughly equal with the player’s ability.

As players improved, they would graduate from one level to another based on their total score. The handicap system would work in similar fashion as it does now with a single modification. The strokes give from one player to another would depend on the level in which they fall and the par assigned to that level.

The personal par handicap system would not be as exacting as it is presently used, but it would be sufficient to allow players to be reasonable competitive without any significant sacrifice. There would then be two scoring systems then, allowing players to choose which one they wanted to use. Or a recommendation might be given that until they reach a given scoring threshold that they use the personal par scoring system.

There would, of course, be the usual concern with something new being injected into the system, but the proposed change would be no greater than when the system of equitable scoring was introduced or when courses were first assigned a course rating number.

A few years ago, when life-long teacher and educator Dr. Gary Wiren was inducted into the Golf Teacher’s Hall of Fame, he wanted to pass along a single piece of advice to those teachers in the room. “Gentleman,” he started and then paused for emphasis. “We must find a way to make the game more fun for our students.”

I’m in full agreement with Dr. Wiren. The question is, “What is the best way to accomplish that goal?” I believe that that the first step in that direction is to change the scoring system so that golfers experience more satisfaction and accomplishment. That is what makes learning fun.

And so, I would have you consider “The Modest Proposal” that I have put forward. And rather than attempting to find reasons why a revised scoring system couldn’t never work, for the benefit of the game, look for the same number of reason why it could work. The time has come for Old Man Par, as we know him, to retire. He has served us well, but he has become an anarchism. He is as obsolete as the horse and buggy. Let’s hand him his gold watch and let him enjoy his golden years in peace.

And at the same time, let’s welcome the “new kid on the block” who will pave the way for the next generation of golfers pioneering a scoring system that promises to make the game more “fun.”

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Podcasts

TG2: What’s the most annoying breach of golf etiquette?

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What’s the one breach of golf etiquette that gets under your skin more than anything else? Equipment expert Brian Knudson and GolfWRX Editor Andrew Tursky discuss what drives them crazy. Also, Knudson talks about his first round with new irons and a new shaft in his driver.

Follow @tg2wrx on Instagram to enter the Bettinardi inovai 5.0 center-shaft putter giveaway.

Listen to the full podcast below on SoundCloud, or click here to listen on iTunes!

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Opinion & Analysis

“I Love You, Tiger!” At Big Cedar lodge, an outpouring of affection for Tiger Woods

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What a difference a year makes.

About one year ago, Tiger Woods was in Branson, Missouri at Big Cedar Lodge to announce that he was designing a golf course there; Payne’s Valley, his first public course. That day was attended by hundreds of national and local media, the Lieutenant Governor of Missouri and Johnny Morris, Bass Pro Shops owner and the visionary behind the amazing golf complex that has been established at Big Cedar Lodge.

That day, Woods had not played competitive golf for awhile, and he was recovering from multiple surgeries. Woods took a couple of ceremonial swings, the last of which clearly left him in physical distress. Days later, he was in surgery again and his playing career looked to be all but over. The situation became worse when Woods was arrested for driving under the influence, found with multiple substances in his system. It seemed as though the sad mug shots from that arrest might be as prominent in his legacy as the smiles and fist-pumps that accompanied his 79 wins and 14 major championships.

Fast forward to yesterday, where Woods was back in Missouri to do a Junior Clinic at Big Cedar. An estimated crowd of over 7,000 kids and parents showed up on a school day to catch a glimpse of Woods. The atmosphere was carnival-like, with sky divers, stunt planes making flyovers and rock music blaring from giant speakers. When Woods finally arrived, the reaction was electric. Mothers and their kids were chanting. “Tiger! Tiger! Tiger!” at the top of their lungs. Photographers battled soccer moms for position to get a picture of his swing. Some of the kids were as young as 6-years-old, which means that they had probably not seen Woods hit a meaningful shot in their life. At one point, when Woods was hitting shots and explaining how to execute them, a woman shouted, “I love you, Tiger!” Not to be out done, a woman on the other side of the crowd, who was their with her husband and kids, shouted “I love you more, Tiger!” Maybe the only people with more affection for Woods would be the people in the golf business. A senior marketing official in the golf industry leaned over at one point in the event and said, “God, we could use just one more from him.”

Woods swing looks completely rehabilitated. He was hitting shots of every shape and trajectory on-demand, and the driver was sending balls well past the end of the makeshift driving range set up for the event. But even more remarkable was the evidence of the recovery of his reputation. Surely there are still women out there that revile Woods for the revelations of infidelity, and no doubt there are those that still reject Woods for his legal and personal struggles. But none of them were in Missouri yesterday. Mothers and children shrieking his name confirmed what we already knew: Tiger Woods is the single most compelling person in American sports, and he belongs to golf.

Unlike a year ago, Woods is swinging well, and seems as healthy and happy as he as ever been as a pro. Add to that the unprecedented outpouring of love from crowds that once produced a combination of awe and respect, but never love. Fowler, McIlroy, Spieth and the rest may get their share of wins and Tweets, but if the game is to really grow it will be on the broad, fragile back of Tiger Woods. It’s amazing to think what can happen in one short year.

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