News

The Lengths That We Drive To

Published

15 years ago

May 5, 2009

Driver shaft lengths are way way too long – there I’ve said it. It’s a comment that is unlikely to win me many friends among the OEMs but over the last few years driver shafts have become so long that they have begun to work against the guy swinging the club. Despite all the technology the we now see in driver heads – and more recently in the shafts – the madness seems to have gotten so far that we have passed a tipping point and we’ve started to lose the benefits that all these technological breakthroughs brought us.

With all these amazing advances we’ve probably forgotten that even just a few year ago the driver was the hardest club in the bag to hit. For most golfers the driver was a low lofted nightmare of a club that rarely made an appearance on the course. Players like Greg Norman were rightly seen as gods for the fearless way they smashed the ball off the tee even down the tightest fairways.

It was the introduction of steel headed drivers by the likes of Gary Adams and Ely Callaway that suddenly made the driver not only longer but far more forgiving. Suddenly bringing out the Big Dog was a real option rather than a statement of machismo. When graphite shafts were added to the mix suddenly the driver become practically the safest club in the bag and certainly consistently the longest.

Before graphite shafts started to replace steel ones, the average length of a driver was 43.5 inches. With the new graphite shafts being lighter than steel the manufacturers took the chance to lengthen the shaft without increasing the swing-weight.

The very reason the driver is in the bag is that we want to hit the ball a long way. We are forever talking about getting that extra 20-30 yards from a new driver because that is what we are all looking for and the manufacturers know it. The driver lengths quickly moved from 43.5" to 45" and a quick glance at current lengths sees that they have grown to as high as 46.25". So what’s the reason behind this relentless increase in shaft length. Well it’s pretty simple and it’s all to to with two things: robotic club testing and the way we demo drivers.

Glancing at the adverts for the current crop of drivers, almost everyone emphasizes how far you can how them – ‘Maximize Distance’, ‘Optimize distance’, ‘Take it Deep’ are just some of the straplines you’ll find. Even with the recent emphasis on adjustibility, there is still an overwhelming emphasis on distance. The one thing above all else that a driver manufacturer wants to be able to say about their driver is that it is longer than their previous generation and longer than their current rivals. Ideally they want to be able to say that it is the longest driver going. They take a robotic swing device like ‘Iron Byron’ as a using a bunch of golfers (even good ones) would be far too inconsistent. With the hotness of the face limited by R&A and USGA restrictions, how else can the manufacturers increase distance with a robot swinging the club at the same speed apart from lengthen the shafts.

The other part of the problem is when we test drivers (that is if we ever do test them rather than being persuaded by the advertising!) we almost exclusively do it at the driving range. On a 300 yard wide driving range it’s almost impossible to care whether the ball goes in a straight line. It’s natural enough for everyone to focus on length. Who cares if half the balls we hit would have ended up OB if we were on the course we say, did you not see how far I was hitting this beast past my old thing! The longer and lighter shafts play to our desire to hit the ball longer rather than to play the game better as we sacrifice accuracy for distance. And when a driver with a shaft that is an extra inch longer hits the ball approximately 8 yards further, it isn’t hard to guess which one is going to be sold.

Unfortunately this means that the driver has become an unruly beast. We can now hit it further than at any time but we stand less chance of keeping it on the short stuff, despite all the MOI, head geometry, COG placement, multi-material construction and shaft design that requires a PhD to understand.

It doesn’t appear to be only me either as a number of golf professionals I’ve spoken to agree with me and have talked about the difficulty of selling drivers with 46" and longer shafts that they know are going to be almost uncontrollable for the average golfer. And it’s not like you have to have long driver to hit it a long way. The average driver length on Tour is about 44.5" to 45". Sergio Garcia and Camilo Villegas both use 44" drivers and given how much Anthony Kim grips down his 45" driver plays around 42.5" and none of them are exactly short hitters. Even the world number one has struggled with his fairways hit average since moving to a longer shafted driver even though he is still an artist with a 3 wood.

OEM’s have done an amazing job with new drivers. They are streets ahead of clubs from even just a few years ago and the shafts now available are light-years ahead of the old steel shafts, it’s just this triumph of marketing over usability helps no one. Unless you are hitting the ball less than 200 yards you really don’t need a 46" driver. Every golfer I know that has shortened their drivers down to 44" to 45" have seen their fairways hit stats up with no drop off in distance from more consistantly hitting the sweetspot. So if you have the opportunity, try a ‘cut down’ driver and see how you get on, you might make friends with your driver again.

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22 Comments

Robbie Camacho

May 27, 2009 at 1:26 am

I agree with the “shorter driver.” I am of course talking about the shaft length. My driver Length is 44.5, however, I grip down about a half-inch. I have increased both distance and accuracy.

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Simon C

May 23, 2009 at 8:32 pm

If you cut down your driver (eg. to 43.5″) you will be lowering your swingweight but also the MOI. In an MOI matched set the swingweight of the driver would commonly C5-C6. The idea is you swing the driver with the same effort you would swing your 7 iron. This is A) more controllable and B) INCREASES swingspeed.

It depends on your approach, if you want to kill every shot you may want to stay with longer length/high SW but if you want to control your shots and hit fairways give it a try. I have recently done this on my 3 wood (lighter shaft and slightly lighter head) and believe me the difference is incredible. It also stiffens the shaft (frequency and torque) so do not do it if you already find the shaft stiff.

I believe it is a good option for those who struggle to square the clubface because the lower MOI means your wrists and hands don’t have to work as hard. You will also find yourself less tired come the 15th hole.

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Rich B

May 18, 2009 at 10:28 am

My favoured fairway finder is 43″ but it’s called a 3 wood. If I’m hitting driver I need at 25 to 40 yards of extra distance otherwise there is no point taking the risk…hence why my V2 Rapture is staying at 45.75″ and I love it….

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Patrick

May 17, 2009 at 8:00 pm

I hope the technology in golf starts going backwards and we start seeing 460cc going back down to at least 300 cc, I know it would probably destroy the golf industry and not as many people would be playing because of the skill that would be required to hit it pure, but to me that is what golf is all about is hitting the ball pure and crisp with the most extreme focus. The secret has been laying out behind my house for years and just now realized what that secret is.

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David

May 15, 2009 at 4:02 pm

I agree with the article in therory that in days of old the driver was hard to hit. The typical steel shafted driver of old was 180 to 225cc’s and NOT very forgiving. My 45 inch driver (Titleist D2) is the most forgiving club in my bag. I find it easier to hit than my fairway wood and just about as accurate. With that said, I guess if you had a head with adjustable weighting you could cut the club down to 43.5 – 44.0 icnhes and use the the weight kit to bring the swingweight back up but to make the club feel right you would probably need to install a 75 to 85 gram shaft so that the club would have a balanced feel. I have an old Hogan driver that has been cut down to 43 inches and it is sooo light I can’t control it…

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Pat

May 14, 2009 at 8:24 pm

Now remember if you do play a longer shaft it’s going to make you swing a little flatter so as long as the swingweight isn’t so light it causes you to go left on release. I have a TP R7 superquad 460 and installed a prolaunch red x stiff tipped .5 inch at 47 inches and have 2 four gram weight up front with the 2 one grams in the back and OMG it’s a beast. Also, the feel to me is alot better when the shaft is longer you get a better kick. I never did understand why someone would want to chop 3 inches off an expensive shaft to make it 44 inches. I honestly think the reason why most touring pros don’t hit 46 and higher length shafts is because they would be riducously long and most courses you don’t want that.

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Doogie

May 13, 2009 at 3:26 pm

and even though I’m a senior
(55) I agree completely with Randall’s comment.
If you’re serious have your shaft put in by someone who knows what they’re doing and have it done right and pay for the right shaft.
The Ozik shaft that Adams puts in their A4 is NOT the one the pros
would be playing believe me.

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Doogie

May 13, 2009 at 3:20 pm

oh and even though theses shafts like the Motore, Ozik Matrix, and Diamana Blue/Whiteboard are exceptional shafts they still should be Pured.

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Doogie

May 13, 2009 at 3:18 pm

I am a 2 handicap and I love hitting a 46 inch driver
It’s got to be the right shaft though and most likely you’re gonna
pay a lot more than 80 bucs for it

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Randall

May 13, 2009 at 8:17 am

I couldn’t disagree more.

I recently switched all three of my drivers to 48″ and my accuracy has improved by 4 or more fairways per 18. I previously played a 44″ 907D2 and it was absolutely erratic… The much higher swingweight of the longer club keeps everything in control and even at XX 48″ there is more ‘feel’ than a single X at 44″. I’ve also gained more than 15% avg. distance with a smoother swing to boot.

Further, OEM shafts are pure garbage. They play softer than stated flex and torqe more than 4* with very low kick points… all in the effort to get Gramps off the tee in style and his money out of his pension/retirement account. The average ‘better’ player stands no chance of being properly fit with off the shelf product. Combine all that with longer length and you do have a nightmare. The cause, however, is not the added length… its because the OEM’s don’t think you are good enough to play your appropriate specs.

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tim glennon

May 12, 2009 at 5:12 pm

I’m 5’7″ 155 lbs. and I’ve been hitting a 47′.25″ driver for over 25 years. I’m typically a 7 handicap. I believe this is the easiest length driver for me to hit, as well as longest, because it requires tempo and focus. I can’t hit a std. driver to save my life.

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Jim

May 11, 2009 at 4:27 pm

I play a Titleist 907D2 and had the shaft cut to 43.5″, I am only 5’7″. I actually gained about 10 yds because the sweet spot was getting met more often and the control was excellent. Give it a try all you have to do is swallow some pride.

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Mark Strain

May 9, 2009 at 9:43 pm

I just cut down my driver the other day 1 inch to 44 and i hit it so much better and even a little farther believe it or not. i am a 1 handicap college player and i hit it reasonably long as it is, but i was looking for a more accurate driver, and i think i found it with this small change.

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marco righetti

May 9, 2009 at 7:26 pm

i agree with pat, i’m 52 years old and i’ve been playing golf for 2 years now and am a 28 handicapper and i have fallen in love with longdriving!
i love playing golf on the course but equally love going to the range and use the driver until i become tired!..i feel as if ive had a workout!
i have a callalway 8 deg diablo neut driver on a ust v2 longdrive 50 inch LDA shaft and a cleveland hi-bore xl 9.5 deg on a 46 inch aldila dvs shaft…i agree that the 46 inch shaft driver is harder to use than a 44 inch shaft driver..but..once you get used to the 50 inch the 46 inch becomes easy and a 44 inch would be extremely easy to use..and..i can honestly say that if hit in the sweetspot a 50 inch driver will send the ball further than a 46 inch etc……
so my main point is once a person gets older and they begin to loose ditance off the tee with the driver…… then…trying to get used to a longer shafted driver can help to get more distance back!

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Pat

May 7, 2009 at 1:55 pm

I’ve been playing a 47 inch driver for the past 5 years and I hit it dead solid perfect everytime, the trick is to have the stiffest shaft possible at that length with the swingweight being just the right amount that it’s not to heavy and actually lose distance because of the weight. It takes lots and lots of practice and alot of hand eye coordination, but after you get to hitting it solid with that lenght and you try to go back to say a 44 inch driver it feels like a dang 5 wood.

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Mike M.

May 7, 2009 at 9:58 am

Great story, Richie A. I find it comical how some players feel as if others are “cheating” if they actually have clubs that fit their swings & game – as if we’re all somehow obligated to accept what the OEMs give us off the rack and ajust our swing to their rigid standards. Sounds to me like your friend had a difficult time coping with the fact that you were outdriving him by 20 – 30 yards with a club that’s 3″ shorter. I’m a really slow swinger (85 mph) & play with a 44″ driver, regular flex, 13.5 degrees of loft. Some have said to me “that’s not really even a driver – it’s a strong 3-wood with a big head.” Well, whatever – I’d rather play my second shot from the fairway after hittng a “strong 3-wood” than scramble out of the trees after hitting a wild shot with something that meets somebody else’s definition of the word “driver.”

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Scott

May 6, 2009 at 5:32 pm

Where does the driver shaft length for the pros get posted? I have looked everywhere for it. I think it would be really enlightening to see.

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Richie A

May 6, 2009 at 2:43 pm

I played a scramble the other day with a guy who was using the exact same driver I was — G10 9* Draw, Stiff. I was hitting the ball 250-265 consistently, compared to his 230-235 (I’m bigger and I do swing harder). I was also in the fairway 70% of the time, and he was in the fairway two or three times. His index is 12; mine is 14. (he is a much better iron player than me).

He mentioned our identical drivers at one point, and I handed mine to him. He set it next to his and was shocked that mine was a full 3″ shorter (mine is 43″, with about 10g of tape on the head). He was dumbfounded and rambled on about “too short…makes it too light…can’t hit far with this thing…ruined the club…it’s a 3 wood…” I just shrugged and hit another fairway so our scramble team could keep having shots at birdies. We used my drive 10 of 14 times. (we shot a 58 and I won a $100 gift card to Golfsmith!).

If I could hit irons, I’d be dangerous. 😉

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Mike Crozier

May 6, 2009 at 1:02 pm

Great article, I think the author could have included one more thing about testing now. The driving range is on the way out most new drivers are tested on SIMULATORS, in which everyone looks at the final distance as a benchmark of how good the driver is!

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Mike M.

May 6, 2009 at 11:32 am

This article is dead on. The top pros in the world won’t play with a 46″ driver because they want something they can control, yet Average Joe Weekend Golfer is supposed to able to hit fairways with these unwieldy things? Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I think the OEMs are in bed with shaft manufacturers and clubmakers – they purposely make drivers longer than any player can hope to control so people will get them cut down or reshafted with shorter shafts to make them playable.

I don’t agree with the statement that “unless you hit the ball less than 200 yards, you don’t really need a 46″ driver.” The opposite is true – If you’re hitting the ball less than 200 yards, then there’s no earthly way possible you have the skill to control a 46″ driver, and you’re worse off with one than anybody else. Maybe you hit the sweep spot 1 in 10 times and it goes 210-215 yards, and the other 90% or your shots are 180-yard wild things than end up in the trees. Or play with a 44″ driver and have 80% of your drives go 195-200 yards down the middle of the fairway. The second scenario is better for the weak hitter than the first. Players with slow swing speeds are the LAST people on earth who need to be messing around with a 46″ driver. Fact.

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Dom C.

May 6, 2009 at 12:27 am

This is a great article. Whenever I get a new driver, I immediately cut it down to 43.5″. It’s easier to drive the ball, it’s a lot more consistent. I’m no single digit handicapper, but a 14 instead. Not a long hitter, but not short either, consistently in the 265 yards range. With the “shorter” driver by today’s standards, I have not lost yardage that has hurt me, so I would rather have the consistency. I have persuaded my golfing partner to cut down to the same length with great results as well.

In regards to machismo, I actually get more satisfactions letting the other 3 players know that I’ve been out-driving them all day with a 43.5″ driver.

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gabbo

May 6, 2009 at 12:04 am

Very true article. One additional point is longer shafted drivers often come with light heads to keep the swingweights reasonable. If someone wants to shorten the driver, they’ll either need to add weight to the head or get a heavier shaft to compensate.

As a golfer who prefers a 44 or 44.5 inch driver, I rarely demo drivers anymore. The shafts are so long, the club doesn’t feel right…even when I choke down. And trying to figure out how it will play shorter is just a in the dark.

So I just play my old two year old driver with a shaft I like and call it a day.

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News

Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2024

Ben Alberstadt

By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson gets underway.

1. Woods confirms he plans to play 1x monthly, remaining 3 majors

ESPN report…”Woods, appearing on the “Today” show Wednesday morning, said he is still following the calendar he mapped out before the season began. But physical limitations continue to give the 15-time major winner pause.”

“He completed the Masters last month but requires a “cold plunge every day, religiously” to get his body going and was “extremely sore” when he left Augusta National. Woods shot a 16-over 304 at the Masters and finished last among the 60 golfers who made the 36-hole cut.”

“I have basically the next three months — three majors — and hopefully that works out,” said Woods, who last won a major in 2019.

“Up next is the PGA Championship at Valhalla in two weeks. The U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 begins June 13, and the Open Championship at Royal Troon in Scotland begins July 18. Woods has not played all four majors in a year since 2019.”

Full piece.

2. Tiger on origin of red-and-black Sunday outfit

Ben Morse for CNN…”…speaking on Tuesday’s edition of ‘The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon,’ the 48-year-old said his mother Kultida was key to him wearing the now-iconic red and black combination.”

“My mom thought, being a Capricorn, that [red] was my power color, or some BS thing like that, so I end up wearing red and end up winning some golf tournaments,” the 15-time major winner told Fallon. “And then to spite her, I wore blue, and I did not win those tournaments. So Mom is always right.”

“Woods’ mother was clearly was onto something as her son would go onto win a record-equaling 82 PGA Tour tournaments.”

Full piece.

3. Gary Player’s take on Tiger’s downfall

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.”

“The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”

“And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”

“Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”

In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.

Full piece.

4. Open winner: I used to hate links golf

Peter Scrivener for the BBC…”However, he did recall his chastening links golf baptism at neighbouring Prestwick, which hosted the inaugural Open in 1860.”

“The first time I played links golf I hated it – it ate me to pieces,” said the 37-year-old, who lost all four of his matches as Europe thrashed the United States in the 2006 Palmer Cup.

“I kept trying to hit lob wedges around the greens and the weather was bad. I got whipped, lost all of my matches.”

Full piece.

5. Why Tiger’s daughter doesn’t like golf

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.”

“On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.”

“Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.

“We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”

Full piece.

6. Spieth hits ‘reset button’

Mark Schlabach for ESPN…”PGA Tour star Jordan Spieth isn’t happy that he’s not playing as well as his longtime friend Scottie Scheffler, but he’s hoping to use the world No. 1 golfer’s success as inspiration.”

“Spieth, a three-time major championship winner, said he used last week as a reset after a so-so start to the 2024 season. He has three top-10 finishes in 10 starts but had a disqualification and three missed cuts, including at The Players and Masters, in his past seven.”

“He is hoping to turn things around, starting at The CJ Cup Bryon Nelson, which tees off Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.”

“I think I kind of wanted to hit the reset button this last week and I took more days off than I usually do,” Spieth told reporters Wednesday. “Got a little burned out trying to find stuff. I wanted to take some time off, clear my mind, and then get back to it.

“… Kind of looking at this as kind of a restart. I haven’t had the year I wanted to have after getting off to a pretty optimistic start in Hawaii. I feel really good about the work I put in since the weekend into the few days this week, so I believe that I’m really close to some great things.”

Full piece.

7. Photos from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Check out all of our galleries from this week’s event!

Full Piece.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Published

5 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).

Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.

We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

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News

Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine

Published

5 days ago

Apr 29, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.

Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson

2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
2019: Sung Kang (-23)
2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
Ryan Moore (+0.98)
Ben Martin (0.80)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

Peter Kuest (+0.93)
Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
Kevin Tway (+0.74)

Birdie or Better %

There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:

Wesley Bryan (31%)
Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
Peter Kuest (25.9%)
Matti Schmid (25.7%
Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
Callum Tarren (+0.86)
Harry Hall (+0.81)
Nick Hardy (+0.69)

Course History

This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.

Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:

Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
K.H. Lee (+2.59)
Seamus Power (+1.84)
Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
Adam Scott (+1.72)

CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).

Alex Noren
Adam Scott
Keith Mitchell
Si Woo Kim
Stephen Jaeger
Jordan Spieth
Jhonnatan Vegas
Nate Lashley
Brice Garnett
Tom Hoge

2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks

Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)

Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.

An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.

Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.

An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.

Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.

Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.

Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)

After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.

Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.

In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.

Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.

Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)

Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.

At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.

2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.

Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)

Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.

This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.

Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)

Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.

Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.

Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.

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