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A pair of Japanese stars emerge on the PGA Tour: Which one will shine brighter?

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The number of Asian golfers who have played on PGA Tour are few. Of those, the ones who have achieved significant fame are even fewer. With Hideki Matsuyama and Ryo Ishikawa playing concurrent schedules in the U.S., Japan has delivered a pair of young, marketable talents with global appeal. Given the success they’ve had barely into their 20s, it’s natural to speculate on how far can they go and who will go the farthest.

Based on early returns, Matsuyama, 21, is more likely to capitalize on his initial success and could earn his first win on Tour in the 2013-2014 wrap-around season. He began the year ranked No. 128 in the world, but he is now comfortably inside the top 30. Discounting his lone missed cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January, Matsuyama’s worst finish on Tour was a tie for 21st at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in early August. His consistently strong play carried over into the majors, especially at The Open Championship, where his late-Sunday charge at eventual winner Phil Mickelson raised everyone’s expectations. It also earned him a spot at the Presidents Cup, where just two years ago Ishikawa was making his second-consecutive appearance.

Ishikawa’s professional career has been following a trajectory that should have led to a third Presidents Cup trip this past season. Golf fans have been hearing a lot about his potential for what seems like a long time. Still just 22 years old, he’s been the acclaimed “can’t-miss kid” since his junior days. Back home, Ishikawa has been compared to Tiger Woods — and Brad Pitt — which should give you some idea of his cultural transcendence.

“He came into the sport young and naïve at a time when Japan’s golf industry was lagging behind the world in popularity,” said Dennis Allen, SVP of global business development at the Back9Network. “The LPGA of Japan was more popular than the Japan Golf Tour. And Koreans were beginning to make themselves known on the global stage. He brought a new personality and energy to the sport in Japan.”

hideki-pres-cup

Ishikawa didn’t so much step foot into his fame as barrel into it. He won in his first start on the Japan Golf Tour as a 15-year-old amateur in 2007. The following year, he won another event and became the youngest player to reach the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking. He followed up his success by winning the tour’s order of merit in 2009 and famously carded a 58 to win The Crowns a year later, the lowest round ever recorded on any major tour.

Ishikawa’s best moments, while notable, have occurred almost entirely on home soil. On the PGA Tour, his record has been equal parts hit and miss. Most American golf fans know of him primarily through his appearances in The Masters, which have all come by way of special invitation and have been negatively received by some critics. Ishikawa himself told reporters earlier this year that he was surprised to have gotten a fifth consecutive invite considering his extensive slide in the world ranking. Like his four previous trips to Augusta, Ishikawa was unable to make a compelling argument that he deserved a spot in the field on merit alone. Perhaps it’s a by-product of trying too hard; very few golfers have been under more media scrutiny or have had to single-handedly carry the torch for their country.

That Ishikawa’s star power has diminished at all is probably a welcome respite. Scenes like the one that happened at his PGA Tour debut at Riviera Country Club, where a mob of Japanese reporters overwhelmed the media center and snapped photos of a television showing Ishikawa being interviewed by an American sports network, reveals much about Japan’s insatiable appetite for all things Ryo.

Andy Yamanaka, an official with the Japan Golf Tour, described Ishikawa as being a near singular influence for generating interest in golf.

“Ryo is the complete package,” Yamanaka said in a 2010 interview. “I’m not sure if it was the same situation with Tiger Woods in the U.S. when he was younger, but I’ve never seen anyone like Ryo in terms of his potential as an international athlete.”

ryo-masters

Matsuyama, only a year younger than Ishikawa, hasn’t had to deal with the same media obligations or scrutiny by virtue of his more conventional path through the amateur ranks. A collegiate player at Tohoku Fukushi University in Sendai, the golf world first took notice of Matsuyama in 2010 when his victory at the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship earned him an automatic invite to The Masters. He was the first Japanese amateur to compete at Augusta, and he took low-am honors that year. He followed that up by successfully defending his Asia-Pacific crown, but was unable to overtake 20-year-old Patrick Cantlay to repeat as low amateur champion.

Beyond that, there was a spell of almost two years where very little else was reported other than his win at the Japan Collegiate Championship in 2012 or his ascension to the top of the World Amateur Golf Ranking — both quality achievements.

But that was then. To say that Matsuyama’s last 10 months have been good would be devastatingly modest.

“His ascent to the top has been meteoric by any standard,” Allen said. “No one saw this coming.”

Within the past year and a half, Matsuyama has vaulted up the rankings, going from 210th in the world to 29th. He also bagged three wins in Japan to go along with his stellar play on the PGA Tour.

For Japanese reporters, Matsuyama was clearly the main draw at the Frys.com Open where he finished tied for third. Playing 40 minutes apart during the opening round, two-thirds of the Japanese media had left Ishikawa to follow Matsuyama by the time his fellow countryman arrived to the first tee.

“Until last year, there was just one player for Japanese media to cover. Now we have two,” Sonoko Funakoshi, a writer for Jiji press, said in an interview. “Results wise, Matsuyama has performed better [recently] so he is getting more exposure. If the results change, then Ishikawa will receive more attention.”

What the Japanese have, much to their glee, is a pretty darn good rivalry that doesn’t need help in the form of a media pep rally to sell it. Matsuyama, who just turned pro this past year, has been seemingly unfazed by his new-found stardom and the expectations that come with it.

Whether it’s representing his country at the Presidents Cup or having to be paired with Tiger Woods at Firestone, who was making a run at shooting 59, Matsuyama exudes poise. He has a swing that matches his personality — smooth and calm, with a slight pause at the top as if to say, what’s the hurry.

At 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, Matsuyama can fill out a golf shirt. His broad, athletic physique is consistent with today’s modern golfer, but he’s not a bomber off the tee. By comparison, the straw-thin Ishikawa actually gets a few extra yards off the tee with his lower, more piercing ball flight.

The key to Matsuyama’s game is accuracy, not distance. Put an iron or wedge in his hand and he turns golf into a game of darts. He ranked No. 1 on the PGA Tour in approach distance from 50 to 125 yards, and was inside the top 10 in four other distance stats. He also led the Tour in GIR percentage in three separate categories. His game is remarkably similar to that of Henrik Stenson, who like Matsuyama, is an average, but streaky putter and who leans on phenomenal ball striking to set up good scoring chances.

Statistics also tell us that Matsuyama’s a closer. His 68.33 final-round scoring average ranked second on Tour and was two strokes lower than his pre-cut average. As for Ishikawa, his final-round average of 72.25 (71.64 overall) reflected the struggles he went through in his first full season on the PGA Tour.

hideki-stats

Ishikawa’s disappointing 2013 season can be summed up this way — expectations, both from Ryo and new equipment sponsor Callaway, were higher.

Shoji Akihisa, vice president of sales and marketing for Callaway’s Japan division, said Ishikawa has had trouble adapting to course conditions in the United States.

“He has struggled mainly with adjusting to different grass surfaces and course layouts and it has affected his short game and putting,” Akihisa said. “It takes time to make those adjustments and there’s a learning curve.”

Ishikawa’s 53.27 percentage in scrambling was 160th on Tour and in another key statistic, strokes gained putting, he ranked even lower. Highlights for the Japanese star were few; he recorded a single top-10 finish in 23 starts and failed to earn enough money to remain fully exempt on Tour.

His detractors are quick to point out that the accolades he’s received in his young career have exceeded the results. It’s also been perceived that Ishikawa, who has been worshipped like a rock star in Japan since his teenage years, is unaccustomed to dealing with hardship.

It’s easy for critics to slap a label based on the results of his scorecards; they don’t see the sweat equity. They don’t see Ishikawa, who bought a home in San Diego in the offseason, grinding at the Ely Callaway Performance Center on his off weeks.

“We have a driving range down there and in indoor putting lab,” said Scott Goryl, senior manager of global communications at Callaway. “It was originally built as an extension of our R&D facility at headquarters. Ryo bought a house nearby and accesses it whenever he likes to practice. Phil Mickelson does this as well. He lives 15 minutes away and he comes in quite a bit to tweak his clubs and try out new products.”

Ishikawa told reporters back in March that “Japanese people are watching me all the time.”

“The biggest thing this year is to keep my Tour card,” he said. “They want me to be a Tour player next year.”

Ishikawa’s demanding 2013 schedule included 24 tournaments. It would’ve been exceedingly easy for him to rest up the remainder of the year and bank on his name and global appeal to cobble together a 2014 schedule heavy on sponsor exemptions. Instead, a humbled Ishikawa made it a point to regain his Tour card, competing in the Web.com Tour playoffs where he finished comfortably inside the top 25. His success in the playoffs has carried over into the new season where he’s earned more money in two starts than all of last season combined. And it has people talking about his play, rather than his much-ballyhooed contract with Callaway signed at the start of the year.

Ishikawa had been on Callaway’s radar since he was a promising junior using one of its Odyssey putters. When his long-term arrangement with Yonex expired, Ishikawa had a number of suitors that reportedly included Srixon and Nike. Yonex, of course, held an advantage over everyone, based on Ishikawa’s familiarity with them. But Callaway was persistent, at one point even sending out Allan Hocknell, senior vice president of research and development, and chief club designer Roger Cleveland to a remote course north of Tokyo to play nine holes with Ishikawa and talk shop.

When negotiations concluded, Ishikawa scored a record multi-year deal worth an estimated 600 million yen ($6.8 million) per year, easily eclipsing Ishikawa’s five-year commitment to Yonex that was worth one billion yen during the life of the contract.

For Callaway, the Ishikawa signing was part of a multi-pronged strategy to reinvigorate the brand with younger, hipper talent and to increase its leverage in Asia.

“They are going through a complete revamp of their business model and brand; it’s part of a broader global strategy,” said the Back9Network’s Allen. “They needed new blood to attract different demographics. And one country that they had always done well in over the past two decades was Japan. So it’s not surprising that they picked a young, vibrant, Japanese pro to be their poster boy.”

Japan, which has 2,350 golf courses and close to 9 million active golfers, is the second-largest market after the U.S. for demand. According to Callaway’s Akihisa, the signing of Ishikawa is all about increasing momentum, both in Japan, as well as in China and Korea. In terms of dividends, Callaway’s 2013 first quarter net sales in Japan were up 4 percent over a year ago and were even higher for the rest of Asia (12 percent).

Ishikawa’s equipment contract with Callaway naturally includes apparel, hats, gloves and footwear. His global ambassadorship and distinct sense of style is in itself a marketable attribute that Callaway has leveraged for its premium apparel line that is distributed by Sanei, a licensing partner it has worked with since 2002.

Working with Ishikawa since last October, Callaway and Sanei have fashioned a look that is distinctly vibrant, youthful and brash — qualities Callaway hasn’t been traditionally known for, especially in the United States.

“In Japan, we have a different approach in terms of apparel,” Akihisa said. “It’s a different style and a different price point than what we offer in the U.S.”

To help Ishikawa with his daily itinerary on Tour, Callaway appointed Kenji Shimada to travel with him. Shimada is responsible for fine tuning his equipment, coordinating his outfits, supervising photo shoots and pretty much anything else that might come up. Normally, an agent might handle some of these responsibilities, but certainly not a rep from an equipment manufacturer.

“It’s a unique situation in that there’s somebody traveling with Ryo on the PGA Tour this year to make sure his equipment is dialed in,” Goryl said. “And there’s a practice facility available to him near his home in Southern California. That is all new. I wouldn’t call it an experiment necessarily, but this is uncharted territory for us. It’s probably too early to tell if this turns into a blueprint [for how other signees are treated], but we’re definitely looking for young, talented players with global appeal.”

Callaway’s relationship with Ishikawa is unprecedented, some would even call it extravagant. But it could signal a trend in the industry as equipment companies seek to lock up deals with the next wave of talent hailing from Asia.

“These guys are heroes in their own countries regardless of what they do on the global stage, so the contracts are paid for by sales increases in Japan and China alone,” Allen said.

The best thing to happen to Ishikawa, who has yet to break through and win on the PGA Tour, could be Matsuyama and vice versa. Both players will push each other; it’s a case of pride — both personal and national. It’s good to see a chafed Ishikawa follow up Matsuyama’s strong performance at the Frys.com Open by tying his own career-best finish at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open in Las Vegas just a week later. He’s going to have to demonstrate some consistently strong play during the coming season if he wants to argue his case for being the best young Asian player on Tour. For now, it appears that Matsuyama has a lock on that title.

It will be exciting to watch how their careers unfold during the next decade and measure the influence they’ll have on the next generation of Asian golfers. Consider the impact Se Ri Pak had in South Korea after winning the LPGA Championship as a 22-year-old in 1998. Pak was the lone Korean player on tour at the time. By 2009, there were 47 players who collectively won more than one-third of the events. On the PGA Tour, veteran K.J. Choi ended up paving the way for Y.E. Yang, Seung-yul Noh and Sang-Moon Bae.

What will the Tour look like in another 10 years? Don’t be surprised if Matsuyama and Ishikawa provide those answers.

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Rusty Cage is a contributing writer for GolfWRX, one of the leading publications online for news, information and resources for the connected golfer. His articles have covered a broad spectrum of topics - equipment and apparel reviews, interviews with industry leaders, analysis of the pro game, and everything in between. Rusty's path into golf has been an unusual one. He took up the game in his late thirties, as suggested by his wife, who thought it might be a good way for her husband to grow closer to her father. The plan worked out a little too well. As his attraction to the game grew, so did his desire to take up writing again after what amounted to 15-year hiatus from sports journalism dating back to college. In spite of spending over a dozen years working in the technology sector as a backend programmer in New York City, Rusty saw an opportunity with GolfWRX and ran with it. A graduate from Boston University with a Bachelor's in journalism, Rusty's long term aspirations are to become one of the game's leading writers, rising to the standard set by modern-day legends like George Peper, Mark Frost and Dan Jenkins. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: August 2014 Fairway Executive Podcast Interview http://golfindustrytrainingassociation.com/17-rusty-cage-golf-writer (During this interview I discuss how golf industry professionals can leverage emerging technologies to connect with their audience.)

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Robert

    Dec 10, 2013 at 8:50 am

    Working here in Tokyo in the media,I can say Ishikawa is NOT the rock star the media makes him out to be at all.Most younger Japanese have little knowledge of him or golf.Basically he was a created idol.Not to doubt his ability though on Japanese courses,but the lack of competition here made him a flat track bully.He’s very introverted and not the ‘Brad Pitt ‘ the Japanese media want him to be.I wish they would give him a break.

  2. Rusty Cage

    Nov 8, 2013 at 8:19 pm

    It was interesting listening in on some of the banter between Ryo and his caddie at the Shriners. Clearly he doesn’t need an interpreter anymore.

  3. Scott

    Nov 8, 2013 at 6:22 pm

    Best thing to happen to Ryo is his new caddy! Simon Clarke from Melbourne. Simon is one of the worlds best caddies.

  4. tyler

    Nov 8, 2013 at 1:54 pm

    Ryo has game but is overrated IMO. His flamboyance makes him appealing but he really hasn’t done anything in the States. Callaway pretty much rolled out the red carpet for him and I guess I can understand why.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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