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2013: The Year of the Tiger?

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The PGA Tour has announced its latest honor for Tiger Woods: Player of the Year. Tiger’s record this year certainly looks good enough on paper, yet something seems off with this.

Tiger won five times on the PGA Tour in 2013 including esteemed wins like two World Championships as well as the unofficial “Fifth Major,” the Players Championship. Add those wins up and Tiger finished the year at No. 1, so there shouldn’t be any debate about this, right? If that’s the case, then why does it feel like he didn’t totally deserve this honor?

Earlier this week when I scoured the list of finalists for the award, I swear that I skimmed right over Tiger not even factoring him. That was strange in itself. I was more enamored with the likes of Adam Scott or Matt Kuchar with a brief glance at FedEx Cup champ Henrik Stenson. My gut told me that Scott would get it based on his wins at the Masters, the Barclays, and his overall body of work. It just felt like his year.

I also was looking closely at Kuchar as it just seemed like he was in contention in nearly every tournament he played in. His year ended with wins at the Accenture Match Play Championship and the Memorial while finishing the year at No. 3 on the Tour money list.

British Open Golf

So, this got me thinking: Why did I gloss over Tiger figuring he was out of consideration while I thought that those other guys, whose years were not as good as Tiger’s, were more deserving of being Player of the Year? When I dug deep, two words came to mind: injuries and (gasp) cheating. Well, cheating is a strong word so let’s just say that Tiger was looser with his rules interpretations this year than a foursome of beer-swilling burglar alarm salesmen in a Security Convention scramble.

As for injuries, I have this image of Tiger where I feel like he spent the better part of the year wincing in pain at nearly every event he played. I seem to recall seeing him holding his back, squeezing his arm, holding his neck or limping around the course week after week.

This is not to downplay injuries and their role in golf. Heck, we all know how small and big injuries can wreak havoc with anyone’s game, pro or amateur. It’s just that my cynical side seemed to think that Tiger would come up lame the worse he was performing. Then, he would inevitably have a miracle cure and storm back in subsequent weeks. Now, I’m not calling the legitimacy of these injuries into question.  It’s just a perception that I have when I look back at this past “year that was.”

Another thing that I look back on when I think of Tiger 2013 is rules: breaking rules, getting away with breaking rules, and and then not getting away breaking rules. The notable rules infractions that Tiger tangled with this past year, in order of oldest to most recent, reads like a police blotter:

Tiger Rule Infraction 1: Abu Dhabi Doo

tiger abu dhabi

Setting: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (European Tour)

What Did Tiger Do: Tiger found his ball imbedded in vines in a bunker. He apparently didn’t like the lie so he lifted his ball and placed it in a more favorable position saying it was “imbedded.”

What Happened?: You aren’t allowed to do that in golf.  In golf, you cannot improve your lie in a hazard so Tiger was assessed a two-stroke penalty following his round — but before he signed his card. Tiger did not call this infraction on himself.  It had to be pointed out to him.

Tiger’s Rule Infraction 2: It Happened One April Day — The Masters

Tiger Drop Masters

Setting: The second round of the Masters at No. 15.

What Did Tiger Do?: Tiger hit his approach wedge so flush and crisp that he flushed the pin when his ball (very) unluckily caromed off the flag and straight into the lake guarding the green. Instead of taking his drop from the place where he has previously played (or anywhere in front of that location between the flag and his originally spot), Tiger decided that he preferred to hit from a distance about two or three yards farther back. Tiger played a shot, ended up taking triple bogey on the hole, finished the round, signed his card and left for the evening.

What Happened?: In golf, you can’t do that. That kind of drop is against the rules. In this case, Tiger’s illegal drop was discovered AFTER Tiger left the course. Instead of being disqualified for signing an incorrect scorecard, for which many famous players have been DQ’ed, the Masters Rule Committee made an arbitrary decision where they assessed Tiger a two-stroke penalty and let him keep playing into the weekend. Many felt this was preferential treatment. Many also thought the right thing for Tiger to do was withdraw because of his rules infraction. But, Tiger decided that he was above the rules and stayed in to a fourth-place finish, which certainly helped him earn Player of the Year honors.

Tiger’s Rule Infraction 3: The Sergio Affair

THE PLAYERS Championship - Final Round

Setting: The 2013 Players Championship, No. 15 — Tiger’s Tee Shot

What Did Tiger Do?: While battling both on the course and off the course with Sergio Garcia, where Tiger would ultimately prevail in both battles, Tiger snap-hooked a crucial drive on No. 15. To the television viewer, the ball never crossed land from every available angle including the MetLife blimp. Yet, Tiger determined that his ball had inexplicably hooked some 200 yards up the fairway and he took what was clearly an “iffy” drop. To further exacerbate the issue, Tiger seemed to cajole his star-struck playing partner, Casey Wittenberg, into backing him with the story. Tiger dropped the ball in a far more favorable position closer to the hole, lying two, giving him a manageable 3 wood into the green as opposed to re-teeing lying two on the tee. He went on to par the hole.

What Happened?: Tiger would go on to win the Players Championship, which was his biggest win of the year — and probably biggest reason for winning this honor of PGA Player of the Year.

Tiger’s Rule Infraction 4: Freelancer captures fumble 

Tiger Woods

Setting: During the second round of the BMW Championship, a freelance videographer for the Tour caught Tiger’s ball moving slightly with Tiger not calling a penalty on himself.

What Did Tiger Do?: Tiger was grooming the ground around his ball prior to his shot, moved a twig out of the way that was a little too close for comfort, and then his ball “oscillated” ever so slightly. Tiger took his shot and never said a word about his ball moving prior to his shot.

What Happened?: In golf, you can’t do that. A golfer is not allowed to move his ball in play, whether intentionally or unintentionally, prior to taking a shot (there are some exception to this like “lift, clean, and place” but you get the idea). A freelance videographer capturing the tournament caught the ball movement, called it in to his boss who called the Tour and Tiger was penalized two-strokes after the round — but before he signed his card. In this case, Tiger blamed the “Digital Age” saying that he gets undue attention compared to other golfers. What?! In other words, it’s OK to cheat as long as you don’t caught?! That’s how I read his reaction.

Each of these incidents taken individually is significant in a game built upon honor and integrity. These four incidents all happened before our eyes, involving the No. 1 golfer in the world, and probably the world’s most recognizable athlete. Tiger is in a position where he needs to be better than all of the other players on Tour not just in skill but in integrity, as well. By standing up and taking responsibility for his transgressions, Tiger can join all of the other greats players in PGA history. But, he seems to subscribe to more of a “win-at-all-costs” mentality.

Tiger’s mentality is the same one which has fueled all-time sporting greats like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, which is great for a game like basketball. But golf is different. Golf is a gut check. It’s a game against yourself and the course; not necessarily your competitors. It’s a game built on rules, some fair and many unfair. But, those rules are the same for all who play.

In my heart, I am convinced that the historical greats of the game including the very person for whom this award is named, Jack Nicklaus, would have willingly called those penalties on themselves. I have no evidence of this. It’s just a sense I have. And, no matter how painful it would have been, I believe they would have withdrawn from the Masters had they unwittingly signed an incorrect scorecard because that’s the rules. But, Tiger took a different path to victory.

Did he cheat for sure on his way to winning this award? I wouldn’t go that far. But, he did take a decided turn into a grey area where doubt has been cast regarding both his honesty and integrity. It may have just been four separate incidents; a huge set of coincidences all centered around one individual. No one knows for sure.

In the end, my hat’s off to Tiger for winning the award. But, I would have liked to see him earn this award with that rare combination of unbelievable skill and unquestioned integrity. My biggest problem with his win is that I leave this year with questions.

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Chris Hibler is an avid golfer, writer and golf gear junkie. If he's not practicing his game with his kids, he's scouring the GolfWRX classifieds looking for a score.

32 Comments

32 Comments

  1. Hunt

    Oct 3, 2013 at 12:43 am

    I think the article was a nice summation of some of the controversy in Tiger’s year. It was an Opinion piece and brought up another look at the Player of the Year’s year. No where did the writer ever state anything about infidelity or even anything in Tiger’s past. I don’t even see how this was brought up? Tiger didn’t have to pressure Wittenberg to say anything. It’s just like what you would do with your playing partner, you would say, “Yeah, around there is good”. I can’t see too many playing partners telling Tiger to march back 200 yards when they didn’t have that good of an idea where it went in either.
    I thought it was an entertaining article and not just a WRX fluff piece where every pro is great and every piece of equipment is the next coming. Nice to see the something without the FanBoy slant.

    • Hans

      Oct 3, 2013 at 11:28 pm

      I find it hard to believe that you say you area Tiger fan and the write a piece with so many innuendos that Tiger is a liar and a cheat. Your use of quotes around the words oscillated, imbedded, etc indicate that you don’t believe him. In Abu dhabi he called his playing partner over before he did anything. Looking at the phot in the article, I’d be hard pressed to call that area a bunker. At the Players he again was assisted by a planning partner to determine the area to drop. At the Masters the committee was as much to blame as anyone. They has a chance to talk to Tiger before he signed his card. They could have determined his intent with the drop and assessed a penalty before his card was signed. In regard to the video of the ball movement, the video was taken from a side view. Tiger was above the ball while moving the stick and any movement could have been viewed as the ball oscillating. There are numerous instances of players being assessed penalties from TV call ins. Tiger is not alone in this matter. He’s just scrutinized more closely than any other golfer in history.
      Your piece is more of a character assassination than anything else. His peers voted him player of year, that’s all that should matter.

      • Fred

        Oct 4, 2013 at 3:01 pm

        I would say that about sums it up. Well put, Hans.

  2. JP

    Oct 2, 2013 at 7:03 pm

    It amazes me that if it was any other golfer nothing would have been said about any of the supposed violations. BTW, what Tiger does in his private life is private. You don’t see any other professional athlete getting slammed for his private life. It takes two to break up a marriage. She wasn’t peaches and cream either. Don’t you have anything better to write about than this.

  3. TWshoot67

    Oct 2, 2013 at 4:52 pm

    The problem is when you stick up for the worlds #1 golfer, you automatically become a Tiger lover or fan boy. The haters come out of the woodwork just as much or more so than the Tiger backers when a story is written pertaining to Tigers accomplishments or lack there of. Seems no one story can just be about the facts of this golf seasons play by all players on PGA tour. Because if a story was truly written that way there would be no discussion and no story about this years POY winner. Case in point if it were any other player with 5 wins and any other player with 2 wins no one would have said a word about the player with 5 wins winning POY. So for those who jump in trying to make a point about someone else actually having a better season then Tiger Woods, It’s purely driven by hatred for the man. Especially obvious when their following sentence says how their opinion of Tiger Woods is unbiased no hatred here! That they are purely making these statements based on facts, and the play of each and every player. These stories written that try and make a case for any other player than Tiger winning POY this year lets your true colors shine through quite clearly. It’s just like todays GC bull crap headline story about bringing up Tiger/Phil pairing for President Cup. It’s all about ratings and no real sustenance! If you wanted to write about Tigers rule infractions then write a story about the rules and how they’re handled. That’s a good story and even the people who really like Tiger and are objective they would have to concede to the fact that some these drops by Tiger were rule breakers. But to write a story about Tiger not deserving POY this year is not even a real story, it’s just gossip. Seriously, just take Tiger out of the equation. Ask yourself Mr. OP, would you have written this same story about any other player with 5 wins and the next best player having 2 for the year? if your being honest, there would be NO POY story, there would have been just a congratulatory story for this years winner, that’s it! Let’s be real.

  4. Fred

    Oct 2, 2013 at 4:12 pm

    It’s interesting – Tiger was accessed a two-shot penalty based on a judgment by PGA officials that his ball moved, which the rules say gave him an “advantage,” toward his next shot. Meanwhile, the USGA has ruled that players who use a belly putter have, in part, an “advantage” over those who use a standard-sized putter, which is why it will become illegal to use in the next four years. So, this means that for the next four years, Adam Scott will be allowed to use a putter the USGA says gives him an advantage over other players, and do so without penalty. Maybe I’m stretching it a bit, here, but, somehow, it seems like a contradiction in defining the term “advantage.” Just a thought.

  5. FredJ

    Sep 30, 2013 at 11:13 pm

    The drop @ the PLAYERS was not a bully move by Tiger as you insinuated. Johnny Miller is the one who a said it was a bad drop. Tiger asked his playing partner where he(the playing partner) thought the ball went out. The playing partner told Tiger where it looked like it went out to him, and that’s where he dropped from. Didn’t know that the folders could stop the tournament to while they were playing and take a look @ what the MetLife blimp showed?

  6. Chris Hibler

    Sep 30, 2013 at 10:03 pm

    As the writer of this opinion piece, I feel compelled to make a few mentions: despite many of the assumptions by the article’s readers, I am huge fan of Tiger’s, do not “hate” him, and also a huge fan of all aspects of golf. With that said, no one can say that the four instances I cited in the piece are anything other than questionable at the very least and all are examples of rules infractions that had to be called on Tiger instead of him calling those infractions on himself.

    Tiger is a huge part of golf and arguably the greatest golfer in the history of the sport. I suppose that is why, fairly or unfairly, I expect so much from him.

    Two corrections that were pointed out by readers:: Tiger did take a double-bogey on the 14th hole at the Player’s Championship (the “iffy drop” hole) and not a par. Also, tiger’s “oscillating ball” was caught by a video editor and not a viewer. However, that incident is raising the level of awareness regarding viewers calling in rules infractions from home.

    • Paul

      Oct 2, 2013 at 4:09 pm

      Another thing you are missing about Tiger’s so called pressure to Casey Wittenburg in the Players is laughable. There are many accounts from the people who were actually there that said Tiger was looking much further back and it was Casey and his caddie who said they believed it to be further up. This article is a practice in loose memories of what actually happened.

      Also, the Masters drop would have been legitimate if it had flown into the water. The only reason it was determined that he could not is because it actually hit the green and rolled back into the water. Also, to state that he thought he was above the rules is rather attacking. The rules through the committee and the ruling body were that he should continue play. Tell me why he should then disobey their ruling and DQ himself, who else would have? I doubt any player.

      The problem with this article isn’t that people think you are a hater. If you weren’t so overly quick to place words and thoughts into the head of someone you do not know and somewhat re-write history in your own mind, then you would have any problems here. That was the problem I had, not that you didn’t think Tiger was deserving, that you were over-dramatising the things that took place. Also, to say that he was looser than beer drinking salesman is lowly.

      Poorly written, even for an opinion piece. (I’m not used to this on GolfWRX, dissappointing)

  7. Yamaha Freak

    Sep 30, 2013 at 10:00 pm

    +1mil to all comments above :)))

  8. David

    Sep 30, 2013 at 8:37 pm

    You know Chris, the problem you face when you write anything about Tiger that isn’t an out-an-out exercise in adoration, that the Tiger-ettes will coming running to his rescue, with or without any knowledge.

    I don’t dislike Tiger, but I’m not fan either. There are several players on tour that I like better, both as people and players, but I’ll concede that when Tiger is/was healthy, on his game and pretty much had the rest of the tour mesmorized, he was the best player and made some of the greatest golf shots I’ve ever seen.

    Personally, I hope he doesn’t break Jack’s record of majors won. As a matter of fact, I also hope that Rory or Phil or anybody else doesn’t break it either. I look at those 18 wins like Ruth’s 60 homers. Great numbers!

    As to the rules issues, I was at Augusta. Tiger hit one of those great shots and got absolutely screwed, but that’s the rub of the green. His playing of the next shot was wrong, totally wrong, but not a wrong as Augusta National not disqualifying him. Personally, I’m glad they didn’t because it may (absolutely would) have clouded a beautiful finish, playoff and win by Adam Scott and Australia.

    I don’t think that Tiger cheats or cheated, but he needs to hold himself to the very highest standards and always ASK FIRST. He knew enough about the rules to enlist the gallery to move a boulder (about the size of one of the Buicks he was driving), so he would have a clear shot at the Phoenix Open, so he has a copy of the rule book!

  9. TWshoot67

    Sep 30, 2013 at 7:14 pm

    I would just like to know why don’t all these writers that obviously hate Tiger Woods write about someone they like, maybe then their articles would have some validity?

  10. Winston Urwiller

    Sep 30, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    This is the dumbest article ever. Also, tiger made bogey on that hole at the players, not a par.

    • Chris Hibler

      Sep 30, 2013 at 9:48 pm

      He actually made double-bogey on the 14th following his “iffy” drop. I stand corrected. Thanks for catching it and posting your opinion.

      -Chris

  11. DPavs

    Sep 30, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    Actually you are wrong. Tiger missed one cut this year at the Abu Dhabi. He missed 2 cuts in 2012. So while he has only missed the cut 10 times in his career 3 of those have come in the last 2 years.

  12. Will

    Sep 30, 2013 at 11:16 am

    Tiger’s 5 wins this year speak for themselves…Have you ever looked at this guy’s winning percentage…it’s off the charts and far and away the best in golf history over his career…So while you continue to nitpick and criticizes a golfer that in a single season won as much as Tom Lehman won in a career just realize that Tiger got to where he is because he just wins…Oh, did you happen to see how many cuts Tiger missed this season…NONE!! So you probably need to check yourself.

  13. DPavs

    Sep 30, 2013 at 8:16 am

    Have to love the resounding love Tiger gets from his fans no matter what he does.
    To be real though let’s sum it up though. It is hard to dispute that he has engaged in conduct that brings his ethics into question both on and off the course. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it’s probably not a swan.

    • chowchow

      Oct 2, 2013 at 3:40 pm

      He learned it all from Tow Watson. Watson wrote the book for PGA players on how to cheat on your wife. Anyone want to dispute Watson’s adulteress sins with another Champions Tour Players wife? Why no outrage for the moralist?

  14. C

    Sep 30, 2013 at 1:46 am

    Tiger was hands down the best player this season, not sure how anyone can say otherwise. The writer of this article is obviously not a fan of tiger, focusing on the negatives instead of the positive. It’s sad that so many people have turned against tiger because of his issues off the course. We all have made mistakes, but luckily our every move isnt followed by the media. Yes, i know it comes with the territory and he screwed up very bad. It doesnt change the fact that he made golf what it is today. Out of curiosity, would all of you still bash on tiger if he never cheated on his wife? My guess is no.

  15. Matt

    Sep 29, 2013 at 7:59 pm

    I don’t even see why this is a debate. The people who vote are the one’s who know best the players, period!

  16. Cris

    Sep 29, 2013 at 1:50 am

    You should not say “why does it feels like he doesn’t deserve…” YOU feel like he doesn’t deserve it. This is your personal opinion and a very bitter one at that.

  17. Brendan

    Sep 29, 2013 at 1:13 am

    Charlie Rymer said something along the lines of “If you don’t think Tiger should be player of the year, then you either have a personal dislike for him, or you are comparing him to his earlier years, and not the other players this year”, and I think that there is on better way to say it.

    • TWshoot67

      Sep 30, 2013 at 7:05 pm

      SPOT ON! The only people who keep arguing about Tiger getting POY are haters and Jack lovers. They try and twist everything against a guy who’s won 5 times and try to figure a way of giving it to anyone but Tiger. Laughable! Tigers 5 win season is better the 90% of PGA golfers whole careers.

  18. shannon

    Sep 29, 2013 at 12:44 am

    How many times did Jack’s ball oscillate or Arnies? We dont know because there was not near the coverage off your coveted greats as their it’s of Tiger. You seem to have a problem with Tiger and if it’s because of cheating on his wife then shame on you. I know guys like Arnie Watson and numerous other greats of yesteryear are happy that didn’t play in this era because you know they were sewing their oats and yes im sure they had their share off infidelities, they just hid it more easily. He throws clubs and swears well what about stenson snapping his driver and destroying a locker room? I. guess he’s just a fiery swede his temper is overlooked. the guy won 5 times and was voted player of the year by his peers. As a writer you should only hope to be as good at your profession as Tiger is at his. To be honest sir you have alot more work to do on your craft to be half the writer that Tiger is a golfer.

  19. Michael

    Sep 28, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    I wonder how many times other players ball’s “oscillated” but since no one was watching them, they have never been caught. But you’re entitled to your own opinion. Granted I think it’s a horrible one.

    • Forsbrand

      Sep 28, 2013 at 3:38 pm

      Player of the year? You’re kidding me! Stenson? Especially if he goes on and wins The Race to Dubai! The way woods is swinging, Jack’s record is safe.

      • Steve

        Sep 28, 2013 at 10:50 pm

        How many times did he win this year?

        • Forsbrand

          Sep 29, 2013 at 4:50 pm

          jack has retired mate, he hasn’t won anything this year:)

  20. Steve

    Sep 28, 2013 at 1:05 pm

    Didn’t a free lance camera man catch the ball “moving”? Not a viewer? Either way, Tiger was far and away the best player in golf this year. And why would it matter if he was healthy all year? That’s ridiculous. 5 wins is 5 wins.

  21. Ethan

    Sep 28, 2013 at 12:12 pm

    Despite all that. I guarantee others sometimes have iffy judgement. The difference being that they’re not tiger. Every swing he takes is taped and announced, which is why in that situation I’d rather be a no name pro that nobody knows. Really, so many others do little stuff like that and never get caught because the camera doesn’t care about them. And I can’t honestly say that I think Tiger was trying to cheat. He knows better because he also knows that a million eyes are on him ALWAYS and knows he won’t get away with it. It’s happened to me where in the middle of a tournament and you’re in position to win the adrenaline is pumping and i totally forget two things: 1) you can ask someone for help on a rule, and 2) that there are people out there that live just to call you on every little infraction in the rules to get a leg up on you or drag you down because they don’t like you.Tiger earned player of the year. Though I tip my hat to phil, scott, and kuchar.

  22. Kyle

    Sep 28, 2013 at 11:56 am

    Cheating is a strong word and the fact you used it along with loose rules like beer drinking foursomes made me skip the rest of the article. He was player of the year, hands down. 5 wins is 5 wins. No one was even close to taking player of the year from him. 2 wins isn’t even close, obviously.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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